Fantasy Hoops: Westbrook’s Decline? Trade Your Wizards?
The Thunder are playing a different type of game than they have in the past and that involves lessening the load on Russell Westbrook, as ESPN’s Royce Young details. Westbrook is averaging 12 fewer touches per game this season than did last year and his individual time of possession has dropped from 9.1 seconds per game in 2017/18 to 7.0 so far this season.
Should you be worried about him from a fantasy standpoint? Not as much as you might think.
Westbrook is still seeing a major role in the offense. He returned to the court against the Kings on Monday after a six-game absence and was again first on the team in usage. The assist and rebound numbers are down, though both averages are still near nine per game. He’s averaging over 20 shots per game and making 48.8% of them on the season (while only an eight-game sample size, it represents a career-high).
“We’ve just got more creators,” Paul George said about the difference between this season and last. “It takes pressure off all of us when you’ve got guys that can make plays at different positions. Then when I have two point guards out there that can make plays, the game is so much easier for me.”
The Thunder are remaining competitive with Westbrook off the floor, and when he plays, he’s getting better looks as the offense is slightly less reliant on him. In roto leagues, he still hovers around top-10 value, as he does in point leagues.
Here’s more from around the NBA:
- While it may be difficult for the Wizards to trade John Wall, it should be easier for fantasy owners to acquire him. The chaos in Washington certainly deflates the point guard’s value as he and the team have underperformed. Yet, Wall actually ranks 15th on the year in fantasy, according to ESPN’s Player Rater. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are also buy-low candidates based on perception, though each one has a better shot at being dealt by the Wizards than Wall due to his contract. Should the team deal one or both of his teammates, Wall’s usage (leading the team with 27.6%) would likely rise even further.
- Despite a rough game against the Bucks his last time out, Zach LaVine remains a top-40 fantasy basketball option. Only two players averaging at least 20 minutes per game (James Harden and Russell Westbrook) have a higher usage rate than LaVine. The UCLA product is set to return to the Bulls lineup tonight against the Suns.
- Joel Embiid has seen his usage increase (30.9% to 33.7%) since Jimmy Butler made his debut for the Sixers. Ben Simmons‘ usage is slightly down (21.0% to 19.0%) and Amir Johnson is seeing the biggest boost, going from 17.3% to 20.2% since last Wednesday.
NBA Hires Rod Strickland As Manager Of G League Professional Path Program
The NBA has hired Rod Strickland to lead its G League professional path program, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.com reports. The program will offer elite prospects the option to bypass the NCAA and earn a salary of $125K to play in the G League.
Strickland, who played for in the NBA for 17 years, and Allison Feaster, who previously graduated from Harvard and played in the WNBA, will oversee a group that identifies high-level prospects eligible for the program. Wojnarowski notes that Feaster will also oversee the broader implementation of the program.
All graduating high school players are already able to make themselves eligible for the G League draft. However, only elite prospects will be eligible for the higher. non-traditional salary. Feaster and Strickland will be judicious when selecting prospects eligible for the program.
“First and foremost, we want to make it clear that they won’t be searching out any player already committed to school,” Feaster told Woj. “We will focus on players who are undecided. As Rod moves into the market, he’ll have interactions with organizations and potential parents. Initially, it’ll be those who reach out to us and want more information on the professional path.
“It will be elite prospects with a readiness for a professional league. We want to target players who would not be going to a university if it weren’t for the NBA eligibility rule. That’s more or less what’s going to dictate this.”
It’s not yet clear how the G League will distribute the prospects to its teams. The NBA is still considering several factors, including whether a specific team has interest in taking these players and whether it makes sense to have regional geography play a role, Wojnarowski adds.
NBA teams normally have the rights to players it drafts in the G League. These professional path players won’t be eligible to be called up to the NBA (they will have to enter the following year’s NBA draft), meaning NBAGL organizations may be tasked with developing a player they could never see suit up for their respective pro clubs. Wojnarwski notes that teams still recognize the value in getting a chance to get a closer look at top prospects.
The Latest On Markelle Fultz
It’s unclear how long it will be until Markelle Fultz suits up in a game for the Sixers. Earlier today, it was reported that Fultz would see a specialist for his shoulder and the former No. 1 pick would not play until that happens.
Philadelphia didn’t have a formal practice on Tuesday, but Fultz participated in some light shooting, Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer tweets. The participation came after Fultz’ agent and attorney, Raymond Brothers, delivered the news of the outside appointment to GM Elton Brand earlier in the day. Brand seemed a bit surprised by Fultz’s need to seek an additional medical opinion.
Prior to Fultz working out, Brand told reporters, including Pompey (video link), that the team isn’t pushing Fultz hard as the second-year guard looks to recover. He did add that there was nothing the Sixers “saw medically that didn’t allow him to play.”
Fultz’s appointment with the specialist will come on Monday, according to Brand (video link via Pompey). Brand was told by Brothers that Monday was the earliest they could get an appointment. It’s not typical that a player’s agent would establish the parameters for a player’s absence.
Fultz has the right, under the CBA, to seek an opinion on an injury from a non-team doctor, and Sports Illustrated’s law expert Michael McCann wonders if the Fitness-to-Play Panel portion of the CBA might eventually come into play here. That article, which is the same that Chris Bosh invoked as he fought with the Heat about his blood clotting issues, instructs independent physicians to address disputes over players’ health conditions.
McCann admits that it’s too early in the process to suggest this kind of a panel is forthcoming. He also notes that NBA.com’s David Aldridge specifically used the wording “at the direction of his attorney” when he reported the news that Fultz would miss time, something which could ostensibly signal that Fultz’s camp is preparing for the day where the law enters this unique situation.
Tiptoe down the branches on the tree of speculation and you can find scenarios in which legalities could come into play. Perhaps Fultz’s camp has reason to believe the Sixers will view his upcoming absence as unauthorized or maybe Fultz could also have concerns about how the team will depict his situation in the media while he’s away.
It’s unclear whether Fultz sought medical treatment from team doctors for his latest concerns but if he did, perhaps he was unhappy with the treatment. McCann notes that if Fultz found the medical care to be substandard, he may have grounds for legal action.
There have been unconfirmed reports that Fultz suffered the shoulder injury while in a motorcycle accident sometime in 2017. If the speculation is true and it happened after the former No. 1 pick officially inked his deal, the Sixers would have a path to suspend him or void his contract, McCann writes. NBA players are not allowed to drive or ride motorcycles or mopeds of any kind without consent from the team (s/o Monta Ellis).
Fultz is still on his rookie contract, a deal that pays him a guaranteed salary of roughly $8.3MM this season and $9.7MM next year. The Sixers hold a team option for the 2020/21 campaign worth approximately $12.3MM. The deal isn’t near an albatross by NBA standards and the Sixers are void of mid-level salaries for trade purposes, so I’d speculate that the situation never gets to the point where Philadelphia’s front office looks to legally get out from Fultz’s deal.
Coach Brett Brown touched on Fultz’s situation, calling the latest update “real red-flag type news,” Pompey relays in a separate tweet. Brown also said he believes Fultz is having a “good year,” adding that the team supports the point guard as he looks to get healthy.
Fultz was moved to the bench once Jimmy Butler made his debut. During the first three games of Butler’s tenure, Fultz played slightly over 18 minutes per game off the pine. Yet, on Monday against the Suns, Fultz saw just seven minutes of action after Brown decided to give T.J. McConnell those backup minutes instead.
NBA G League Assignments/Recalls: 11/20/18
Here are Tuesday’s assignments and recalls from around the NBA:
- The Spurs have assigned Chimezie Metu to the team’s G League affiliate, the Austin Spurs, according to their website. Metu has seen action in nine NBA games this season, averaging 6.0 per contest.
- The Timberwolves have assigned Keita Bates-Diop to the Iowa Wolves, per the team’s Twitter feed. This is Bates-Diop’s second G League stint this season.
John Wall Wants To Remain With Wizards
The Wizards are not planning to trade John Wall, though as losses continue to add up, the team will have to consider taking a long-term approach to building a formidable roster. On Monday, it was reported that no one on Washington’s roster was untouchable in trade talks. Today, Wall spoke about the rumors, making it clear where he wanted to be.
“I love being here. I want to finish my career here, that’s all I can control,” Wall told reporters, including Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington, prior to Tuesday’s tilt with the Clippers.
Wall signed a massive, four-year, $170MM extension with the Wizards during the summer of 2017. The deal, which includes a 15% trade kicker, will take effect at the end of this season.
Hughes notes that Wall has previously expressed his desire to bring Washington a championship and the point guard has often expressed his preference of spending his entire career with the franchise.
Neither the Wizards nor Wall are playing up to their potential this season. It was previously reported that Wall was playing through a deep thigh bruise and he alluded to injuries as a reason for his subpar play. “Everyone keeps saying I’m not in shape. I’m in shape. It’s just that I deal with injuries. I play through them and I don’t complain about it,” Wall said.
Zhaire Smith In Danger of Missing Entire Season?
Zhaire Smith has yet to make his debut for the Sixers this season and that moment may not come during the 2018/19 campaign.
Philadelphia announced earlier this month that Smith underwent “medical treatment for complications derived from the allergic reaction that initially required a thoracoscopy” and while there was no timetable for his return, reporters were told that Smith’s return to the court would not come in 2018.
According to The Ringer’s John Gonzalez, Smith is “in danger” of missing not just the rest of the calendar year but the entire season. Gonzalez hears that the rookie has undergone several procedures to address the allergy issue and he’s lost “upwards of 20 pounds” in the process.
Leading up to the complication, the Sixers were aware of Smith’s peanut allergy and they had prepared Smith’s food separately. However, the team was unaware that he also had a sesame allergy, Gonzalez writes, and it’s possible that Smith ate something from the facility with sesame in it that triggered the reaction.
Philadelphia acquired Smith’s rights, along with a future first-round pick, on draft night in exchange for No. 10 overall pick Mikal Bridges. Smith was the No. 16 overall selection out of Texas Tech.
Wizards Attempting To Move On From Distractions
The Wizards are downplaying the internal conflict, trade rumors, and flare-ups, with coach Scott Brooks telling the media that the team has “moved on.”
“It happened last week,” Brooks said (via Tim Bontemps of ESPN.com). “We moved on from it as a team. Not trying to minimize what happened, but in all sports, all teams I’ve been on — I’ve been in the league for almost 30 years as a player, as an assistant coach, as a head coach — that has happened.
“It’s something that you understand that it’s a competitive environment and a lot of times, you have adult conversations that get heated. And we all have to live with what we say and work things out when that does happen and move on.”
On Monday, it was reported that Washington had deemed no player untouchable in trade discussions. Bradley Beal, the Wizard who likely has the most trade value, hasn’t explicitly expressed a desire to be traded, though at least one team has already contacted the franchise about his availability.
“I’m not going to be naive to it, you know,” Beal told Bontemps among other reporters on Monday about the possibility of being traded. “I’ve heard those rumors weeks ago. Then, I didn’t buy into them. Now, I’m still not going to buy into them because if that’s my main priority and focus, then I’m going to be messed up on the floor.”
Entering Tuesday, the Wizards own a record of 5-11 and Brooks will shake up the rotation with the hopes of getting better results. The team is moving Markieff Morris to the bench and pairing Kelly Oubre Jr. and Otto Porter in the starting lineup, Candace Buckner of The Washington Post tweets.
Fantasy Hoops: Processing The Jimmy Butler Trade
“It is critical to be cycle aware in a talent-driven league. In a situation like yours at the Sixers, where a variety of circumstances left you near a trough in the cycle [and falling], amplifying this cycle became crucial. Today’s outcomes for every team are heavily impacted by decisions past [who to draft, sign, trade, hire, etc].
Jeff Bezos says that if Amazon has a good quarter it’s because of work they did three, four, five years ago—not because they did a good job that quarter.”
Former Sixers GM Sam Hinkie wrote those words in his infamous 13-page manifesto, in which he expanded on the idea of having the longest view in the room. Hinkie discussed the moves the Warriors made to set up their dynasty, how Boston was able to land Kevin Garnett a decade ago by planning ahead, and how the Rockets and Spurs were able to bring James Harden and LaMarcus Aldridge to their respective Texas clubs.
This past weekend, the Sixers “ended” The Process by making their move for a star; the event was years in the making.
They found their missing piece by adding Jimmy Butler and trading away two of Hinkie’s gems in Robert Covington and Dario Saric. The deal signals the end of a long journey, one that sets the franchise up to become a true title contender. The path wasn’t easy. The games were borderline unwatchable at times, even for basketball purists, but Philadelphia finally has aligned its stars. The clock has begun to tick on the franchise’s new cycle.
It’s unlikely we see another Hinkie-esque rebuild, as I wrote during last year’s MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. James Anderson likely will never again see his face displayed as large and as proudly as it was on the banners in the Wells Fargo Center during the team’s post-2014 trade deadline games. Questions such as, “Can JaKarr Sampson make it as a role player?” or “What’s the best way to build around Jahlil Okafor‘s game?” or “When will the Sixers’ first-round pick play?” are no longer ones Sixers fans need to worry about answering (except for that last question, which seemingly pops up every year).
The Sixers in a great position because of their times of tribulations. The team is even set up to add yet another piece this summer should they convince a top free agent to sign on the dotted line.
As for this season, we’ve got you covered on the impact this trade will have on the fantasy landscape. Here are the three big questions following the deal:
How Will The Sixers’ Big Three Look?
Gone are the days of random DNPs, as the trade to Philadelphia has likely cured Jimmy Butler of his “general soreness.” Butler owners can exhale.
The four-time All-Star certainly won’t average 40+ minutes per night, as he did over his last three games with the Timberwolves (man, Tom Thibodeau surely was squeezing every last bit of value out of Butler before dealing him away). Still, he was the 11th-best player in 9-cat leagues last season and he could easily sneak into the top 10, as he did during the 2016/17 campaign.
Butler’s presence doesn’t dramatically change the value of either Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid. Embiid displayed MVP-level game and usage during the team’s first 15 games. His ability to get to the line has been particularly remarkable, as he posted his third game with at least 20 free throws on Monday against the Heat.
Embiid entered Tuesday sitting seventh in the NBA in usage (30.9%) and second in the league in scoring (28.2 points per game) behind only Stephen Curry. Perhaps those figures slightly decline with Butler in the fold. Regardless, Embiid remains a top-10 option.
Simmons should still pepper nearly all the categories on a nightly basis. He’s a top-25 option the rest of the way, though he should be valued below Butler in all formats.
Will A New Fantasy Option Rise From The Ashes Of The Process?
With Philadelphia trading away two key contributors, another fantasy option could emerge in the City of Brotherly Love. Mike Muscala is likely the best bet until the Sixers make another acquisition.
He’s a career 37.6% shooter from behind the arc and the foursome of J.J. Redick, Embiid, Simmons, and Muscala has the highest net rating among any four-man lineup (min 20 mins played) that coach Brett Brown has at his disposal. It’s easy to envision the 76ers playing those four alongside Butler as they close games.
Wilson Chandler, who started against the Heat on Monday and played 23 minutes, will have an opportunity to sneak into the fantasy discussion, but there’s a good chance that he may get enough of the offensive pie to make a real difference. He previously told Hoops Rumors that he doesn’t expect to play a high usage role for the Sixers this season.
Furkan Korkmaz saw 22 minutes against Miami, his second straight game with that much action. He has made 9-of-17 shots over those two games including six-of-13 from downtown. He’s worth a flier despite the uncertainty around his happiness in Philadelphia. Landry Shamet is also a candidate to see a rise in value and could be worth a speculative add.
What About Minnesota?
On the other side of the trade, Robert Covington‘s value will remain intact. As I mentioned in last week’s Fantasy Hoops, he should be owned in all roto leagues.
Dario Saric gets to another chance at a fresh start after the trade. He’s shooting just 36.4% on the season and as I explained on a recent episode of NBA Math’s Hardwood Knocks, his struggles would be even more apparent to casual fans if not for Markelle Fultz having his own issues. As a member of the Wolves, Saric likely won’t have the luxury of being just the second-most disappointing player should he continue to struggle.
Still, this is a buy-low opportunity for the owners eyeing the Croatian big. He’s had slow starts in the past and he should move into the Timberwolves’ starting lineup once he makes his debut. At least one league executive expects RoCo and The Homie to mesh well with Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins.
Towns is the biggest beneficiary of Butler’s departure from a fantasy standpoint. Expect his usage to settle in the 24-28% range. He’s a borderline top-five fantasy option. If you own Nikola Jokic, Towns represents a slight upgrade and I’d recommend attempting to make that swap.
Derrick Rose remains a fantasy zombie and Jeff Teague becomes a more attractive option after the deal. Wiggins, who is nursing a quad injury, had some mysterious DNPs while the Butler saga inflamed. Expect him to see his usage rise ever so slightly.
Fantasy questions? Take to the comment section below or tweet me at @CW_Crouse.
Missed an earlier edition of Fantasy Hoops? Check out the entire series here.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Western Notes: Lowry, Covington, Rockets
The Jazz saw Gordon Hayward walk away after the 2016/17 campaign but he wasn’t the only star the team had an eye on that offseason. Utah spoke with Kyle Lowry‘s representatives during the summer of 2017 and the organization felt confident that it could sign Lowry, sources tell Andy Larsen and Eric Walden of The Salt Lake Tribune.
The front office decided to pull out of the Lowry sweepstakes because signing the point guard would have required the team to use the cap space it had planned to use for Hayward. Lowry ended up re-signing with Toronto on a three-year pact.
Here’s more from the Western Conference:
- The Jazz also had interest in Otto Porter and Danilo Gallinari during the 2017 offseason, Larsen and Walden detail in the same piece. Both players signed with other teams while Utah was waiting on Hayward’s decision.
- One league executive tells Marc Stein of The New York Times that he expects Robert Covington and Dario Saric to mesh well with Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. Stein adds that the Timberwolves would have likely been better off long-term with the Josh Richardson offer from Miami.
- With Carmelo Anthony‘s future in Houston up in the air, Kelly Iko of The Athletic revisits the decision to sign him in the first place, citing sources who say that there were players and members of the Rockets organization who were “wary of what his arrival would bring.”
NBA G League Assignments/Recalls: 11/13/18
Here are Tuesday’s assignments and recalls from around the NBA:
- The Jazz have assigned Raul Neto to the Salt Lake City Stars, according to the team’s website. Neto is rehabbing from a hamstring injury.
- The Raptors have assigned Malachi Richardson to their G League affiliate, according to the Raptors 905’s Twitter feed.
- The Lakers have recalled Moritz Wagner and Svi Mykhailiuk from the South Bay Lakers, the team announces on Twitter.
- Elie Okobo will head to the Northern Arizona Suns, as Phoenix has assigned him to their G League affiliate (per the team’s website). The rookie has played in 11 NBA games for the Suns this season.
- The Bucks have assigned Christian Wood to the Wisconsin Herd, according to the team’s Twitter feed.