Southwest Notes: Conley, Green, Koufos, Pels
The Grizzlies have tried multiple times to strike up extension talks with Mike Conley, sources tell Marc Stein of ESPN.com, who says that Conley has nonetheless resisted. That’s no surprise, since the salary for the first season in a veteran extension for him could be no more than 107.5% of his salary in the last season before the extension were to kick in. The point guard’s existing bargain deal tops out at little more than $9.388MM next season, so an extension would entail a giant financial sacrifice for Conley. He’s therefore destined to become one of the headliners in the 2016 free agent class, but there’s more on this summer’s business first amid the latest from the Southwest Division:
- The working assumption in Memphis is that Jeff Green will pick up his $9.2MM player option to stay with the Grizzlies for next season, but the presence of wily agent David Falk in the equation makes that less than a foregone conclusion, as Stein details in the same piece.
- The Celtics were among the many teams that made trade proposals for Kosta Koufos this year that the Grizzlies turned down, Stein writes. Boston was involved in a rumored three-team scenario that would have sent Koufos to Cleveland, but it didn’t appear until now that the C’s made a play for the big man themselves. In any case, Memphis is aware that Koufos, a free agent this summer, wants to start, Stein says.
- Alvin Gentry, Scott Brooks, an NBA assistant coach or a college coach who isn’t already a star would probably pass muster with Pelicans GM Dell Demps sooner than Tom Thibodeau, John Calipari or Jeff Van Gundy would, as Jimmy Smith of The Times-Picayune opines. The GM is reportedly weary of internal conflict, and a coach who carries less authority would be easier for Demps to handle, Smith believes, calling the front office situation, in which Saints/Pelicans executive Mickey Loomis holds sway over Demps, “untenable.” The Pels reportedly interviewed Gentry on Monday, but it’s unclear whether the Warriors assistant is the right fit for the New Orleans roster, according to Smith.
- Al-Farouq Aminu‘s energy is reminiscent of Corey Brewer and Jae Crowder, and the Mavs should work to retain soon-to-be free agent Aminu this summer, as Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News argues, positing that the forward would be a bargain at around $4MM a year.
Northwest Notes: Okafor, Towns, Thunder, Gee
Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities believes Jahlil Okafor is the guy at No. 1 for the Timberwolves (Twitter link), who won last night’s lottery, though he cautions that nothing is set in stone. That jibes with the feeling Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune had as of a week ago, when he said he thought the Wolves would go with the Duke center. However Chad Ford of ESPN.com and Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress top their mock drafts with the Wolves picking Kentucky big man Karl-Anthony Towns instead. Wolves coach/executive Flip Saunders played coy Tuesday night, not even deigning to narrow the field to those two, Zgoda notes.
“It’s not that simple,” Saunders said. “We have an idea but there are a lot of different directions we can go. … We have to rely on our ability to select the right players. This will give us great flexibility. Every spot you move up in the draft, you have more control over what’s going to happen and you have more people talking to you.”
Saunders did make it clear that the team almost certainly won’t trade the pick, as Zgoda relays. Here’s more from the Northwest:
- Persistent rumors indicate that Jahlil Okafor has his heart set on becoming a Laker, according to Givony, who wonders if agent Bill Duffy, who also represents Andrew Wiggins and who is college buddies with Saunders, will let Okafor work out for the Wolves.
- Thunder GM Sam Presti is pleased with the depth of the draft and said that while he’ll have exploratory talks about trading the team’s pick, at No. 14 overall, with all sorts of teams, he’d probably wait until draft night to make a move if he indeed makes one. Presti made those comments and many others to Royce Young of Daily Thunder, who provides a full transcript of their conversation.
- Alonzo Gee has been on the roster of a half dozen NBA teams in the past 12 months, but Joe Freeman of The Oregonian will be surprised if he sticks in Portland with a tumultuous summer ahead for the Blazers, as Freeman writes in a roundtable piece examining Gee’s future. Gee becomes an unrestricted free agent in July.
The Contract Cost Of Each Lottery Pick
Stretch your imagination for a moment to envision the Thunder winning the lottery tonight, as they have only a slim 0.5% chance of doing. The first thought in the minds of GM Sam Presti and other Oklahoma City higher-ups will surely be one of elation. The second thought may force them to swallow hard.
The rookie scale contract for the No. 1 overall pick this year will be worth more than $25.7MM over its four-year span if his team pays him 120% of the rookie scale amount, as is almost certain to happen. That’s about $16.1MM more than the approximately $9.6MM the rookie deal for the 14th overall pick will likely be worth. Naturally, that would be water under the bridge if the top pick turns out to be a superstar, but it seems that for every Anthony Davis, there’s an Anthony Bennett. The costs increase with each rung up the lottery ladder, and while most teams would surely celebrate a leap in draft position tonight, a higher pick carries consequences, particularly for teams like the Thunder, who already seem destined to pay the tax next season.
Below is a look at each lottery pick and the cost of the rookie scale contract associated with it, assuming that the team will pay the standard 120% of the scale amounts. Only the first two seasons of these deals are guaranteed, but it would be quite surprising if a team declined either its third or fourth year team option on its contract with a lottery pick.
For more on the lottery, check out each team’s odds for each pick, and read our Hoops Rumors Glossary entry to see how the lottery works.
Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.
Southeast Notes: Beal, Nene, Ressler, Fournier
It’s conference finals or bust for the Wizards next season, opines Ohm Youngmisuk of ESPN.com. Coach Randy Wittman acknowledges the challenge is to find the right complements to John Wall and Bradley Beal, as Youngmisuk notes. J. Michael of CSNWashington.com reported in October that the team is planning an extension for Beal, who’s eligible to receive one this summer, and Wittman hinted that the team has no intention to let the shooting guard go anywhere anytime soon.
“We know what we have to do and the pieces that I would like to add moving forward,” Wittman said. “Brad and John will be here a long time and so we got to utilize their strengths and find the right people to put around them.”
There’s more on the Wizards amid the latest from the Southeast Division:
- Marcin Gortat said Monday that he wants to play with a stretch four, but Nene, who doesn’t fit that description, made it clear that he’d prefer not to have to play more center, as Michael relays in a pair of pieces. Moving to center might mean a backup role for Nene as he enters the final season of his contract with the Wizards, Michael suggests. “As much as I love Nene, and I think Nene understands this, too, I would love to play with a stretch four, with a guy who shoots the ball from the three-point line because that automatically gives me more room under the basket to operate,” Gortat said. “It gives me more opportunity to play pick-and-rolls to the paint where the paint is open.”
- The Board of Governors are expected to complete the approval process for Tony Ressler’s deal to buy the Hawks within the next four to six weeks, a source told Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The draft is five weeks from Thursday, and free agency begins six weeks from Wednesday.
- Offseason trade acquisition Evan Fournier was a revelation early in the season for the Magic, but his numbers were inconsistent after a switch to the bench, and he’d likely be a reserve again next season if the team re-signs Tobias Harris, writes Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel. Fournier is eligible for a rookie scale extension this summer.
Ricky Rubio’s Camp Pushing For Trade?
2:28pm: Rubio’s camp isn’t making any such push in the wake of this season, Wolfson clarifies (on Twitter). Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune nonetheless believes that Fegan has probably wanted a Rubio trade for a while and probably negotiated the extension with the knowledge that other teams would be willing to take on the revised terms of Rubio’s contract in a swap (Twitter links).
1:24pm: Ricky Rubio‘s camp has been pushing for a trade for some time, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com writes in his weekly chat with readers. However, the push isn’t as strong as it was before the point guard signed a four-year, $55MM extension this past fall, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities (Twitter link). That deal triggered the Poison Pill Provision, which would make it difficult for any trade to meet the salary-matching requirements between the time the sides signed the extension and the end of June this year.
The Wolves are in the midst of a rebuilding project, having compiled the league’s worst record, though the presence of Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine, who made Minnesota the only franchise with two All-Rookie Team selections this year, together with Rubio, signal a brighter future. Still, it’s not entirely clear if the team’s chances of winning are the reason why Rubio’s people have apparently wanted a swap.
Minnesota and the Dan Fegan client closed a large gap in extension negotiations between Rubio’s apparent initial ask of the max and Minnesota’s original four-year, $44MM figure. The Kings asked the Wolves about the idea of trading for Rubio prior to the extension, as Wolfson reported months ago, but it’s not clear just how strong the trade market for the former No. 5 overall pick would be at this point, after yet another injury-shortened season. Rubio played in only 22 games and shot 25.5% from behind the three-point line this season, both career lows. He missed 25 games in each of his first two NBA seasons before playing all 82 in 2013/14.
Mavs, Others Prepping Offers For Marc Gasol
The Mavs, Spurs, Knicks and Lakers are putting together proposals to make to Marc Gasol when free agency opens July 1st, multiple league sources tell Michael Wallace of ESPN.com. Not as much has been said about Dallas and Gasol as with the other apparent suitors, though it stands to reason that the Mavs, already linked to Aldridge and DeAndre Jordan, would cast their lot with another marquee free agent. The Spurs have long been identified as a team in the mix for the 30-year-old, though it appears the team will first make a pitch to LaMarcus Aldridge, who’s widely seen as more obtainable, before doing so with Gasol, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported Monday. The Knicks became pessimistic about their prospects of landing the Spanish center late last year, a notion that former Knick and current Gasol teammate Beno Udrih recently reinforced, though it appears that they, like the Lakers, will give it a try.
Gasol has been mum on his plans, though he’s made his affection for the city of Memphis clear while not ruling out any other potential destination. The Grizzlies fear the Spurs more than any other team in the hunt, according to Stein, but the majority of Gasol’s teammates believe he will re-sign, Wallace writes, and Memphis coach Dave Joerger thinks he’s largely made the decision already, as Wallace relays.
“He’s the best player at his position in the league,” Joerger said. “You make preparations if it goes in a direction you’re not happy about. You’re not going to lose sleep at night. It’s not going to do any good. He’s going to do what he’s going to do. Not in the next two weeks are we going to send him a big thing of flowers and it’s going to change his mind. [By then], the cement is dry. We’ll make our last, ‘Hey, this is what’s important to us. What’s important to you?’ Things of that nature. But I’ve got to think his mind is 99% made up.”
Dallas has about $28MM in guaranteed salary against a projected $67.1MM salary cap for next season, but Raymond Felton is reportedly opting in for more than $3.95MM and Monta Ellis can pick up an $8.72MM player option, too. That would still leave flexibility for an estimated $19MM max starting salary for Gasol, a seven-year veteran, but it wouldn’t leave much room for the team to address the point guard position, where Rajon Rondo is unlikely to return.
Latest On Spurs, Duncan, Ginobili, Leonard
TUESDAY, 1:30pm: The Spurs haven’t received any indication about what Duncan and Ginobili plan to do, and the prevailing belief within the organization remains that Duncan will likely decide to play again and that Ginobili is leaning toward hanging it up, reports Ken Berger of CBSSports.com. San Antonio’s plan is to quickly reach a five-year max deal with Leonard, which shouldn’t be a problem, a source tells Berger, and then let him join Duncan in recruitment of Aldridge. Of course, San Antonio probably wouldn’t officially re-sign Leonard before signing a marquee free agent from another team, since Leonard’s cap hold, much smaller than a max salary, affords the Spurs greater flexibility. In any case, Berger largely seconds a report from Marc Stein of ESPN.com that the Spurs will first go after Aldridge, who’s seen as more obtainable, before pursuing Gasol.
MONDAY, 3:43pm: All indications are that the Spurs are planning for Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to return for next season, Bleacher Report’s Ric Bucher says (video link). Team officials haven’t formally met with the pair of mainstays to discuss their intentions for next season, and they won’t do so for another couple of weeks, Bucher cautions. It remains to be seen just how much either of them would demand on a new deal, since San Antonio’s contracts with both expire June 30th. Still, the Spurs continue to plan to pursue a marquee free agent from another team, an enterprise that would require Duncan and Ginobili to take deeply discounted deals, barring salary-clearing trades, as I examined when I looked at the offseason ahead for San Antonio.
The Spurs are reportedly expected to make a pitch to LaMarcus Aldridge before doing the same to Marc Gasol, given that Aldridge appears to be the more readily obtainable of the two, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported today. Bucher suggests that the team will target Brook Lopez, too, though it’s not entirely clear whether or not that’s merely Bucher’s speculation. Lopez has a player option for next season and appears likely to opt out but re-sign with the Nets.
Ginobili, who turns 38 in July, said recently that he’d take the rest of May to make up his mind about returning, and he indicated that Duncan’s decision would have a heavy influence on his. Duncan, whose 39th birthday passed last month, offered little insight into his thinking in the wake of San Antonio’s playoff ouster a few weeks ago. Duncan remains productive, having posted the same 22.6 PER this season as he did as a rookie, while Ginobili’s mark in that category this year, 16.2, is even better than the one he put up in his first NBA season.
San Antonio only has about $34.2MM in salary committed for next season against a projected $67.1MM salary cap, but that doesn’t include a cap hold of more than $7.2MM for soon-to-be restricted free agent Kawhi Leonard. A max salary for Aldridge, Gasol or Lopez would check in at around an estimated $19MM next season. Only five Spurs have guaranteed contracts for next season, so building a team around a maximum-salary acquisition would take some financial gymnastics.
John Calipari Interested In Pelicans Job?
12:38pm: Calipari took to Twitter to deny interest in the Pelicans. “Even though Anthony and Tyreke are in NOLA, I have no interest in the Pelicans or any other job,” Calipari wrote. “I have a great job and I’m happy at UK.”
12:00pm: University of Kentucky coach John Calipari has made Pelicans higher-ups aware that he has interest in the team’s job, a source close to Calipari told John Reid of The Times-Picayune. The sides have had exploratory conversations, Reid adds, but it doesn’t look like the team would be on board with paying him enough to lure him from his college gig. The Pelicans are willing to pay between $4MM and $5MM for their next coach, league sources tell Reid, but Calipari is reportedly close to an extension with Kentucky that would bring his average annual salary to around $7.7MM. Calipari hasn’t signed that extension, Reid points out, but the gap between those salaries and what he would make with the Pelicans is a major stumbling block to the idea that the recruiting maestro would end up in New Orleans, Reid hears.
The Pelicans reportedly interviewed Alvin Gentry on Monday night, and have apparently made calls on Jeff Van Gundy and hold interest in Scott Brooks, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports. Most of the chatter surrounding the New Orleans job before Monday centered on Tom Thibodeau. There’s reportedly been mutual interest there, and league sources confirm to Reid that the Pelicans still have him in their sights. Still, there was a lot of talk at the combine that the Pelicans would be hesitant to give Chicago the compensation it would seek for letting Thibs out of his contract, according to K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.
Johnson surmised that it supports the notion that New Orleans is waiting to see how it shakes out between the Bulls and Thibodeau, who have seemed destined to part. Chicago still has its coach under contract for two more seasons for a total of close to $9MM, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported. It’s unclear just how much Thibs would seek in a new deal from another team, Reid notes, suggesting, meanwhile, that what Gentry would command would fall into the Pelicans’ preferred $4-5MM range.
Calipari would want to have input on player personnel decisions in New Orleans, Reid hears, though that would be difficult to accommodate with executive vice president of basketball operations Mickey Loomis and GM Dell Demps both exercising prominent decision-making powers. Still, there are close ties between the Kentucky coach and the Pelicans roster, which features Anthony Davis, perhaps the most prominent player among the many stars who’ve played for Calipari on the Wildcats. Tyreke Evans, who played for Calipari at the University of Memphis, is also a Pelican.
An NBA executive told Steve Popper of The Record in March that Calipari “desperately” wanted back in the league, years after a disastrous stint as a coach/executive with the Nets in the late 1990s. Nothing has come of speculation that there was a way for him to rejoin the Nets, in spite of the apparent presence of advocates for him within the Brooklyn organization. Calipari and the Cavs reportedly had talks about the idea that he would become Cleveland’s coach and president last year, but Calipari instead returned to Kentucky. Eddie Scarito of Hoops Rumors speculated this past weekend that Calipari was a dark horse for the New Orleans job.
Northwest Notes: Garnett, Aldridge, Abrines
The Timberwolves got their apparent wish to receive Thaddeus Young in the final version of the Kevin Love trade instead of the Heat’s protected first-round pick this year, and Minnesota flipped Young for Kevin Garnett at this year’s trade deadline. The Sixers, who ended up with that protected Miami pick instead, have about a 9% chance to end up with it as a lottery pick this year, as the lottery odds show. Still, it’s more likely that it ultimately winds up going to Philadelphia next year as a late first-rounder, given the Heat’s strong chance to field a better team next season. Wolves coach and president of basketball operations Flip Saunders doesn’t have any regrets about trading for a aging superstar who’s mentoring rookies and veterans alike, as he told Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck in part two of a lengthy oral history on Garnett.
“What KG brings, the other things, how he might help these other guys analytically be better, is more important than a low first-round pick or whatever it is,” Saunders said.
Here’s more from around the Northwest Division:
- LaMarcus Aldridge finally had the surgery on his left thumb that he put off in late January, the Trail Blazers announced. He’s expected to be able to return to basketball activity in about eight weeks, and while that would carry into July, when he’s set to become a free agent, it shouldn’t affect his stock, given how well he played while he was dealing with the injury, tweets Marc Stein of ESPN.com. The Spurs, Mavs, Knicks, Lakers and Celtics are reportedly among the teams gearing up for a run at the Blazers star.
- Thunder draft-and-stash prospect Alex Abrines has officially signed an extension with Barcelona of Spain that carries through the 2018/19 season, the team announced (translation via Sportando’s Orazio Cauchi). Jose Ignacio Huguet of Mundo Deportivo first reported the deal, though it remains unclear what sort of NBA outs, if any, are in the contract.
- The Thunder let some of the top shooting prospects know that shooting is an area of need for the team, and Oklahoma City’s interviews at the combine also revealed that the club is focusing on point guards, as The Oklahoman’s Darnell Mayberry examines.
Offseason Outlook: Chicago Bulls
Guaranteed Contracts
- Derrick Rose ($20,093,064)
- Joakim Noah ($13,900,000)
- Taj Gibson ($8,500,000)
- Pau Gasol ($7,448,760)
- Nikola Mirotic ($5,543,725)
- Doug McDermott ($2,380,440)
- Tony Snell ($1,535,880)
- (Richard Hamilton $333,333)1
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- E’Twaun Moore ($1,015,421)2
- Cameron Bairstow ($845,059)3
Options
- Kirk Hinrich ($2,854,940 — Player)4
Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- Jimmy Butler ($5,021,870) — $4,433,683 qualifying offer
Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- Mike Dunleavy ($4,324,106)
- No. 22 pick ($1,159,300)
- Aaron Brooks ($947,276)
- Nazr Mohammed ($947,276)
Draft Picks
- 1st Round (22nd overall)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $60,160,202
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,435,480
- Options: $2,854,940
- Cap Holds: $12,399,828
- Total: $76,850,450
Most Bulls fans would probably have been ecstatic if you told them a year ago that their team would sign a free agent who’d score 18.5 points per game this season, that Nikola Mirotic would finish second in Rookie of the Year Voting, and that Derrick Rose would play in every playoff game. Add that Jimmy Butler would take a massive leap offensively, average 20.0 PPG, and win the Most Improved Player award, and those fans might have begun scouting locations in Grant Park for the championship celebration. Instead, a cloud of gloom seems to hang over the franchise in spite of all the positives that happened in the past year. Management is nearing an ugly split with coach Tom Thibodeau, and the sting of a missed opportunity in the playoffs is such that it’s left some, including Grantland’s Zach Lowe, to wonder if we’ve seen the last of the Bulls as we know them.
What seems almost certain now is that Thibodeau won’t be back. Iowa State coach Fred Hoiberg appears to be the team’s first choice to replace the former Coach of the Year, but Hoiberg is only a month removed from open heart surgery, and there’s some doubt that he wants to embrace the NBA pressure for this coming season. One source told Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck that Warriors assistant Alvin Gentry is the favorite for the job, but he’s tied up with Golden State’s run for a title, and there’s no telling if he wants to try to work with a front office that apparently can’t get along with the well-respected Thibs. Bulls lead assistant Adrian Griffin is an intriguing in-house candidate, but he’s never been a head coach on any level.
Whoever coaches the Bulls next season will likely have to reckon with the notion that as strong Chicago’s roster is, Cleveland’s seems even stronger. The Cavs beat the Bulls without Kevin Love and Anderson Varejao for the entire series, without J.R. Smith for the first two games, and without whatever asset they’re poised to reap from the unusually valuable Brendan Haywood contract. Pau Gasol, that 18.5 PPG scorer the Bulls picked up in free agency last summer, turns 35 in July. Executives around the league apparently aren’t convinced that Joakim Noah will ever again be healthy enough to perform at his peak level. Rose looked at times like his pre-injury self in the playoffs and averaged 20.3 points per game, but he missed 31 regular season games and he, too, doesn’t appear capable of regaining all that he once had.
The good news for the Bulls is that they have the power to retain Butler for at least next season, and at least the next three seasons barring the thoroughly unlikely outcome that Butler signs his qualifying offer, worth slightly less than $4.434MM. The Bulls can preclude any opposing team from tendering an offer sheet like the one Chandler Parsons signed in 2014, which includes a player option after year two, if they make a maximum qualifying offer alongside Butler’s standard qualifying offer. The maximum qualifying offer is a five-year guaranteed deal for the max with full 7.5% raises and no option clauses. It sounds like the Bulls already have that kind of offer in mind anyway, and executive VP of basketball operations John Paxson has said Chicago will match all other offers, so Butler seems destined to remain with the Bulls for the foreseeable future.
Still, even securing Butler this summer will come with a tinge of regret for the team, since he and agent Happy Walters would reportedly have been willing to settle for an extension with salaries between $12.5MM and $13MM this past fall, when the team held the line at $11MM a year. The starting salary in a new max deal for Butler would likely approach $16MM. Sign Butler to the max, and Chicago’s staring at some $76MM in guaranteed salary for only eight players on the roster. That doesn’t include starting small forward Mike Dunleavy, who’s hitting unrestricted free agency, Kirk Hinrich‘s nearly $2.9MM player option, or the team’s draft pick this year, which comes at No. 22. The tax line is projected to be $81.6MM, and owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t known to be enthusiastic about shelling out extra money on his payroll. Reinsdorf might be particularly eager to keep costs in check after paying $13.549MM to the amnestied Carlos Boozer this year on top of the team’s more than $67.4MM in cap hits.
Chicago has little recourse to avoid the tax unless it feels as though an alternative to Dunleavy at small forward is already on the roster or unless it pulls off a salary-clearing trade. Doug McDermott didn’t win Thibodeau’s confidence in his rookie season, averaging 8.9 minutes per game across only 36 appearances, but last year’s 11th overall pick still holds promise as a potential solution at the three spot. Tony Snell showed improvement as he took on an increased role this past season, so perhaps he’s ready to take another leap into the starting lineup on the wing alongside Butler. Chicago could go big and start Mirotic or Taj Gibson at the three, though that would be a rather radical move in today’s NBA.
Gibson’s name comes up more often in trade speculation than in suggestions that he should start these days after his playing time receded this year. That reduced burn was largely a function of the acquisitions of Gasol and Mirotic, since there are only so many frontcourt minutes to go around. Still, his PER held steady at 16.1, virtually mirroring last season’s 16.0, a number he posted amid the most expansive role of his career as the Bulls de-emphasized Boozer. Gibson’s $8.5MM salary and his ability to start for another team make him a logical trade candidate, and the Bucks and Raptors, among others, seemed interested. However, talks never appeared to get very far, signaling that Chicago didn’t have much inclination to part with him.
Another mechanism of breaking up the frontcourt logjam would be to move Gasol, whose trade value may never be higher than it is now in the wake of a renaissance season. His contract is ostensibly even more attractive to opposing teams than Gibson’s is, as it calls for him to make nearly $7.449MM next season with a player option worth almost $7.77MM in 2016/17. That would make him a fit for a team even if he were only playing at the level of a rotation-caliber reserve. However, the Bulls would be stuck paying a trade kicker worth $1,117,314 if they were to trade Gasol this summer, and it’s difficult to envision another team coming up with a fair package in exchange that would lessen Chicago’s salary burden for next season.
Trading Noah is another possibility, but not one that seems like it would be all that attractive to the Bulls, either. Chicago would be selling low on the 2013/14 All-NBA First Team center who’s been as much a part of the fabric of the Bulls as anyone. The continued presence of Noah would help keep the locker room together amid transition from Thibodeau to the next coach. Noah’s contract is up after next season, so if he fails to return to top form, the Bulls wouldn’t have any further commitment tying them to him.
Noah’s deal coming off the books isn’t the only reason why the team will have much more flexibility after next season than it does after this one. The sudden jump in the salary cap and the tax line will make it much easier for the Bulls to avoid tax penalties, meaning that a venture into the tax this season would set up as a one-year phenomenon that wouldn’t put the team in line to pay repeat-offender penalties anytime soon. Chicago has only paid the tax once in its history, and this season’s Boozer payment has been an added burden. Still, the league’s $24 billion TV deal brings the promise of greater revenue than ever, and with it, the capacity for owners to shell out even more for talent, even on top of what the rising salary cap will compel them to pay.
Ultimately, the decision about whether to make a concerted effort to avoid the tax or to move in the other direction and keep the team intact may well rest largely in the front office’s read on the degree of separation between this team’s title chances in the next few years and those of the Cavs. It’s conceivable that Paxson and GM Gar Forman will conclude that this roster just isn’t capable of scaling those last hurdles to a championship. The apparent urge to move on from Thibodeau is either a signal from management that it feels like another coach would help bring the team that extra step closer or that the club has to rebuild to some degree and thus it isn’t worth putting up with whatever it is Thibs does that’s so irksome. Last year, the Bulls looked outside of themselves, to Carmelo Anthony, to Love and finally to Gasol, to move ahead. The summer ahead will be a time for Chicago to look inward, and it’ll say much about the way the Bulls perceive themselves.
Cap Footnotes
1 — The Bulls waived Hamilton in July 2013 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next three seasons.
2 — Moore’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 25th.
3 — Bairstow’s salary is partially guaranteed for $425K.
4 — The cap hold for Hinrich would be $5,190,800 if he opts out.
The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.