Stan Van Gundy Unlikely To Coach Next Season
Stan Van Gundy is indicating to teams that he doesn't want to return to coaching for the 2013/14 season, and he hasn't had any formal interviews, according to Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. That conflicts with the news we heard earlier today that Van Gundy had formally interviewed with the Hawks. He was also reportedly in Milwaukee a week ago to meet with the Bucks, though a later dispatch said that he declined to interview with that team. Robbins writes that Van Gundy has merely accepted calls from a pair of GMs.
There appears to be plenty of demand for the former Magic boss, who has also been linked to the Nets and Clippers in recent weeks. One rumor suggested that he's holding out to see whether the Clippers job will come open, but Robbins' piece doesn't make it seem as though that's the case. Van Gundy did some college basketball broadcasting work this past year, but has otherwise appeared content away from the game.
Robbins laments that Van Gundy's unwillingness to return will extinguish any chance that Van Gundy and Dwight Howard will reunite in the near future, perhaps with the Hawks. The coach and player, combatants in a war of words last season in Orlando, appear to have made amends, and Howard would benefit from the chance to work with Van Gundy again, Robbins believes.
How Lottery Teams With Best Odds Have Fared
The way the 2003 draft lottery played out, the Cavaliers and Grizzlies were the final two teams with a chance at the No. 1 pick, which would undoubtedly be used to select LeBron James. The pick, and LeBron, went to Cleveland, of course, much to the chagrin of then-Grizzlies GM Jerry West. But, heading into the lottery that night, the team that had the best chance of keeping LeBron from the Cavs was the Nuggets.
Denver and Cleveland tied for the worst record in 2002/03. Under today's rules, a coin flip would have given one team a slight edge, but at the time, the Cavs and Nuggets had equal, 22.5% chances at the top pick. No other team had better than a 15.7% shot. The Grizzlies, with just a 6.4% chance of pulling it off, nearly did so, but the No. 1 pick, and the prize of a clear shot at LeBron, wound up in the hands of the Cavs.
The next year, the Magic converted their league-leading 25% odds into the No. 1 pick and Dwight Howard, but since then, no team with the best chance of winning the lottery has done so. The Magic once more have the best chance, at 25%, of coming away with the top pick, and we'll see on Tuesday whether they break a nine-year jinx for the team in pole position on lottery night.
In the meantime, here's a list of the teams with the best chances of winning the lottery, the team that actually won the lottery, and the No. 1 pick from each of the past 10 years. Feel free to wonder what it would be like if it were the Heat, instead of the Bulls team they just eliminated, who endured a season without Derrick Rose. Or how well the Grizzlies would be doing if they had secured the No. 1 pick in 2007 and used it on Kevin Durant, the superstar they just eliminated in the playoffs, instead of Greg Oden. Or whether former Timberwolves GM David Kahn, who endured heavy criticism after taking Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn back-to-back in 2009, would have hesitated to take Kyrie Irving in 2011.
Clearly, there's a lot of luck involved in the draft, and never more so than on lottery night:
2012
Best chance: Bobcats (25.0%)
Winner: Pelicans (13.7% — 4th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Anthony Davis
2011
Best chance: Timberwolves (25.0%)
Winner: Cavaliers (2.8% — 8th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
2010
Best chance: Nets (25.0%)
Winner: Wizards (10.3% — 5th best chance)
No. 1 pick: John Wall
2009
Best chance: Kings (25.0%)
Winner: Clippers (17.7% — 3rd best chance)
No. 1 pick: Blake Griffin
2008
Best chance: Heat (25.0%)
Winner: Bulls (1.7% — 9th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Derrick Rose
2007
Best chance: Grizzlies (25.0%)
Winner: Trail Blazers (5.3% — 6th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Greg Oden
2006
Best chance: Trail Blazers (25.0%)
Winner: Raptors (8.8% — 5th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Andrea Bargnani
2005
Best chance: Hawks (25.0%)
Winner: Bucks (6.3% — 6th best chance)
No. 1 pick: Andrew Bogut
2004
Best chance: Magic (25.0%)
Winner: Magic
No. 1 pick: Dwight Howard
2003
Best chance: Cavaliers and Nuggets (22.5%)
Winner: Cavaliers
No. 1 pick: LeBron James
DraftExpress was used in the creation of this post.
Sixers CEO Adam Aron To Take Reduced Role?
3:12pm: A league source tells John Mitchell of the Philadelphia Inquirer that there will be no change in Aron's role (Twitter link).
1:08pm: Former NBA general manager John Nash said on SportsRadio 94 WIP in Philadelphia today that Sixers CEO Adam Aron "has been extracted from the basketball side of things," stemming from a clash with consultant and former coach Doug Collins (Twitter links). However, a source tells Tom Moore of PhillyBurbs.com that Nash will remain as CEO, and that an announcement the team has scheduled today has nothing to do with Aron (Twitter links). Still, Moore tweets that it's safe to assume Aron's role on the basketball side will be reduced following the hiring of new GM Sam Hinkie.
Presumably, today's announcement will make Hinkie's hiring official, as it's been widely reported since Friday that Hinkie, the Rockets assistant GM, will replace Tony DiLeo, who's spent that past year as Sixers GM. The past month has brought change to Philadelphia, where Collins stepped down as coach following the season and assumed an advisory capacity with the team. Team president Rod Thorn is also transitioning into a consultant's position for the Sixers, having previously been the man in charge of the team's day-to-day basketball operations before DiLeo was named GM last summer.
It's not the first time Collins' presence has created the specter of a power struggle in the Sixers front office. There were concerns that the coach's influence last summer may have dissuaded Danny Ferry, who became GM of the Hawks, from taking the same position in Philadelphia. I'm not sure exactly how much Aron had to do with the team's basketball ops, with both Thorn and DiLeo around this past season in addition to Collins. Nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised if Hinkie expressed a desire for a higher degree of autonomy than having so many people involved in the team's basketball dealings would have afforded.
Eastern Rumors: Sampson, Clifford, Cavs, Celtics
We could have a fairly clear idea of the two teams that will play for the Eastern Conference title by the end of tonight. The Heat appear on their way to the conference finals with a 3-1 lead against the Bulls, and the Pacers can take a 3-1 lead of their own with a win at home against the Knicks tonight. Of course, we won't know for sure until later this week at the earliest, but if Indiana wins this evening, most of the on-court intrigue will shift to the Spurs–Warriors series in the West. All five open head coaching jobs are in the East, however, and there's news on that along with other notes from around the conference today:
- The Bobcats are interviewing Rockets assistant Kelvin Sampson for their head coaching vacancy today, and they'll meet with Lakers assistant Steve Clifford next week, according to Ken Berger of CBSSports.com (Twitter links). The team has reportedly had interest in both.
- A few days after receiving permission from the Lakers to do so, the Cavs are interviewing L.A. player development coach Phil Handy for a spot on head coach Mike Brown's staff, reports Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link).
- Chris Forsberg of ESPNBoston.com doesn't expect to see resolution on the future of the Celtics soon, suggesting that trade talk involving Paul Pierce could drag on past June 30th, the deadline for Boston to waive Pierce and reduce his cap hit by more than $10MM.
- The Raptors appear headed for tax territory next season, but the arrival of new executive Tim Leiweke indicates that the team is comfortable paying the tax, writes Stephen Brotherston of HoopsWorld.
- Eddie Jordan spent parts of nine seasons as an NBA head coach, six of them with the Wizards, but he tells Michael Lee of The Washington Post he doesn't want another NBA head coaching job, no matter how it goes in his new gig as the coach at Rutgers University.
Lillard Leads All-Rookie Team Selections
Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard was the lone unanimous selection to the NBA's All-Rookie team, the league announced. He received the maximum 29 first-team votes from the league's coaches. All 30 head coaches voted, though Blazers coach Terry Stotts wasn't allowed to vote for a player from his own team. Lillard led all rookies in points, assists and minutes per game.
Here are the results, with the point totals in parentheses (two points for first-place vote, one point for second-place vote):
First team:
- Damian Lillard (58)
- Bradley Beal (57)
- Anthony Davis (57)
- Dion Waiters (50)
- Harrison Barnes (47)
Second team:
- Andre Drummond (35)
- Jonas Valanciunas (31)
- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (29)
- Kyle Singler (17)
- Tyler Zeller (15)
Fifth overall pick Thomas Robinson, drafted by the Kings and traded at the deadline to the Rockets, was the only player among the first seven picks from last June who didn't make either All-Rookie squad. The second team includes two players, Valanciunas and Singler, taken in the 2011 draft who played overseas for a season before coming stateside this year.
Unlike the voting discrepancies for the Defensive Player of the Year award and All-Defensive Teams, the coaches and media were in lockstep for the rookies. The five members of the All-Rookie First Team were the top five vote-getters in Rookie of the Year balloting.
Offseason Outlook: Denver Nuggets
Guaranteed Contracts
- Ty Lawson ($10,786,517)
- JaVale McGee ($10,750,000)
- Danilo Gallinari ($10,146,925)
- Wilson Chandler ($6,344,164)
- Andre Miller ($5,000,000)
- Kosta Koufos ($3,000,000)
- Anthony Randolph ($1,750,000)
- Evan Fournier ($1,422,720)
- Kenneth Faried ($1,367,640)
- Jordan Hamilton ($1,169,880)
Options
- Andre Iguodala ($16,154,750, Early termination)
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- Quincy Miller ($788,872, guaranteed for $150,000)
Free Agents/Cap Holds
- Corey Brewer ($6,161,700)
- Timofey Mozgov ($5,966,815)
- Julyan Stone ($1,084,293 – QO)
- No. 27 pick ($899,000)
- (Rudy Fernandez - $5,451,108)
- (Wesley Person - $884,293)
Draft Picks
- 1st Round (27th overall)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $51,887,846
- Options: $16,154,750
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $638,872
- Cap Holds: $20,447,209
- Total: $89,128,677
Most teams with 57 regular season wins, the Coach of the Year and the Executive of the Year would still find themselves alive in the postseason this time of year, but that's not the case for these Nuggets. Denver finds itself out of the first round for the ninth time in 10 years, with critics once more heralding the ineffectiveness of the team's egalitarian approach. There is no superstar on this roster, and Andre Iguodala, the team's closest facsimile, is likely to opt out of his contract and hit free agency this summer.
Team president Josh Kroenke and GM Masai Ujiri have both expressed a desire for Iguodala to return, and re-signing him would appear to be the team's top priority if the Olympic gold medalist opts out. A new contract for Iggy would likely hamstring the team's financial flexibility from a cap standpoint, though the primary option for upgrading this roster would likely be a trade. The Carmelo Anthony deal, the Nene/JaVale McGee swap and the Nuggets' participation in the Dwight Howard/Andrew Bynum blockbuster that netted them Iguodala last summer represent three major trades in an 18-month span. Restraint isn't what put the Executive of the Year trophy in Ujiri's hands, and I wouldn't expect him to stand pat for long.
Danilo Gallinari's torn ACL could complicate matters. Gallinari is just 24 years old and on an affordable contract that will pay him $32.561MM over the next three seasons. He represents one of the team's best assets if Ujiri wants to make a deal. The same could be said for 25-year-old Ty Lawson, though the Nuggets just signed him to a four-year, $48MM extension that kicks in next season, and they seem to view him as a long-term building block.
A better option might be Wilson Chandler, who is due $20,273,739 through 2016, not too dire a price for someone who can play both forward positions and shot 41.3% from three-point range this season. Kosta Koufos has severely limited shooting range, but he makes just $3MM next season and next, with only $500K guaranteed in the final season of his contract. That, along with his size, rebounding and efficiency, could intrigue other teams. The Nuggets also have Kenneth Faried with two years left on his rookie deal, and while they'd be loath to part with a bargain like him, they might be willing to do so if they could make him part of a package for a superstar.
Chandler, Koufos and Faried might allow for decent return in a trade, but Denver probably isn't getting a marquee player unless they're willing to include Lawson or another team is willing to take on Gallinari as damaged goods. Ujiri could get creative and structure a sign-and-trade with Iguodala or Timofey Mozgov, but doing so would require the players' consent, which makes it tricky.
The Nuggets reportedly plan on extending a qualifying offer to Mozgov, though there's some doubt that they'd do so, since he could just accept it and make nearly $4MM next season as overpriced end-of-the-bench filler. The 7'1" center was a hot trade candidate at the deadline this season, so if the Nuggets float the offer and Mozgov doesn't bite, rival teams in need of size could be goaded into overpaying for Mozgov to scare the Nuggets off from matching. If Ujiri can negotiate a fairly priced multiyear deal for the Russian, he could be thrown into trade discussions again at next year's deadline.
The other notable free agent on the roster is Corey Brewer, who enjoyed a renaissance this season and drew high praise from George Karl. His poor outside shooting was exposed in the playoffs, however, and his 5-for-28 shooting in the final three games of the Warriors series may have cost him plenty of money. That could allow the Nuggets to pick him back up at a cheap price, although the team's subpar performance from behind the three-point line this season suggests they should go after someone with better touch. Denver was 20th in made three-pointers this season, and it's been known since March that the team will target sharpshooter Kyle Korver in free agency, likely with its mid-level exception. Korver will likely have plenty of suitors, but the Nuggets could look to other three-point gunners if they miss out on him.
Denver's 57 regular season wins were a franchise best, but NBA teams are measured on their success in the postseason. Anthony was around for many of the team's playoff failures, but he was also the centerpiece of the Nuggets' lone escape from the first round in recent memory, in 2009 when they went to the Western Conference Finals. That, coupled with this year's shortcomings, should be enough to persuade Ujiri to step up his pursuit of superstar talent, no matter how risky (Bynum) or unproven (DeMarcus Cousins) it may be.
Additional notes:
- Mozgov's situation is unusual, since his cap hold is much greater than his $3,925,536 qualifying offer would be. He was undrafted, so he never signed a rookie-scale contract, and thus his cap hold is 190% of his salary from this season instead of the QO.
- The Nuggets have already made one offseason decision, having kept Quincy Miller on the roster for more than seven days following their final game. That triggered his partial guarantee for next season.
Sixers Rumors: Turner, Brown, Hinkie
The move isn't official yet, but the talk surrounding the Sixers this weekend has been about the impending appointment of Rockets executive Sam Hinkie as the new GM in Philadelphia. It will be the first of several key moves for the Sixers this summer, as the franchise must fill its coaching vacancy and decide on the future of free agent Andrew Bynum. There's been plenty of reaction to Friday's news about the change in the team's front office, as we share here:
- Evan Turner is eligible for an extension this summer heading into the final year of his rookie deal, and outgoing GM Tony DiLeo wanted to keep Turner around, a source tells John Mitchell of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). Mitchell wonders whether Hinkie feels the same way about the former No. 2 overall pick.
- Hinkie's arrival puts to bed any notion that Larry Brown might return to coach the team, according to Mitchell, who hopes the move also spells the end for Bynum in Philly.
- In a separate piece, Mitchell outlines a to-do list for Hinkie and profiles the executive who's willing to supplement advanced statistics with the old-fashioned legwork of scouting.
- Tom Moore of PhillyBurbs.com suggests Hinkie ought to launch a full-fledged rebuild in Philadelphia, rather than just "tweaking" the roster.
- The Inquirer's Michael Kaskey-Blomain Inquirer wouldn't be surprised to see the Sixers hire a first-time head coach, and he picks through the field of assistants in line to take over a team this summer.
Luke Adams contributed to this post.
Prospect Profile: Alex Len
Most draft prospects still have nearly seven weeks left to make their cases in workouts with teams, but the book on Maryland center Alex Len is as complete as it's going to be. Len is out for four to six months with a stress fracture in his left ankle, leaving him without a chance to prove he's worthy of the No. 1 pick. As it is, he appears destined for the middle of the lottery, with Chad Ford of ESPN.com and Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress agreeing he's the seventh-best prospect available.
The 19-year-old Ukraine native is a raw talent, and there will be plenty of risk involved in taking him, particularly given his injury. He could nonetheless wind up as a steal, and was in the conversation as a potential top overall selection at times this season. That kind of talk started when he opened the season with 23 points and 12 rebounds, both career highs at the time, in a highly anticipated matchup against Kentucky center Nerlens Noel.
Previously, he had been considered a fringe lottery pick. There were questions entering this season about his strength, as well as his poor free-throw shooting and propensity for fouls and turnovers. He showed up after last summer with added muscle, and answered critics with fewer fouls and turnovers per minute this year, as well as a markedly better performance at the free-throw line. He went from 59% at the stripe his freshman season to 69% as a sophomore this year. He did so in nearly twice as many attempts per game, as Len became a much greater part of the Maryland offense.
He still averaged only 8.5 field goal attempts per outing this season, a jump from 4.3 in a relatively similar amount of playing time last year, but still not as many as his talents suggest he should have taken. Len possesses a legitimate post-up game, and it appeared Maryland coach Mark Turgeon's offensive system held him back, even as some scouts began to think toward the end of the season that Len might be better off staying for his junior year. He showed inconsistency against ACC competition and in the NIT, though his rebounding numbers were more or less the same throughout the season, save for back-to-back three-rebound performances in the first two rounds of the NIT.
Len responded with 13 rebounds in his next postseason contest, and finished the season with averages of 7.8 rebounds in 26.4 minutes per game. His work on the boards is not a question mark, and neither is his shot-blocking ability. At 7'1" with an even longer wingspan, he swatted away 2.1 shots on a nightly basis this season, mirroring his average as a freshman. His size, quickness and athleticism, as well as his touch as a finisher around the basket, make him a sought-after prospect.
There isn't a team out there that couldn't use a shot-blocking 7'1" center with a post game, but the team currently slotted to pick seventh is the Pistons, and they already have Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Len could give the Pelicans, targeted for the No. 5 spot, an impressive one-two punch inside with Anthony Davis, and the same could be said of the Blazers and LaMarcus Aldridge if Len drops to their current position at 10th overall. The Kings could draft Len sixth overall and put pressure on DeMarcus Cousins to perform, while the Timberwolves, in line for the ninth pick, could take Len as insurance in case a team throws an inflated offer at restricted free agent Nikola Pekovic.
Minnesota, though, has expectations of becoming a playoff team next season, and that could dissuade them from picking Len. Despite his impressive potential, he remains a work in progress, and appears best suited for a team that's willing to be patient.
Kings Updates: Sunday
Last night, news broke that the Maloof family won't sell the Kings to the Sacramento-based bidding group, having instead structured a backup plan involving minority ownership for Seattle investors. The team seemed destined to remain in Sacramento when the NBA's relocation committee unanimously voted two weeks ago to recommend that the league reject the sale of a majority stake to the Seattle bidders, but last night's revelation appeared to threaten that arrangement. We followed up the news with a second thread of updates last night, and we'll keep track of today's developments here:
- SB Nation's Tom Ziller hears that the latest moves from the Maloofs and the Seattle group have angered the league office. The subject of whether David Stern has support from owners around the league in case the matter winds up in court will be a central topic of discussion in tomorrow's conference call, according to Ziller. TNT's David Aldridge reported last night that Hansen's group is uninterested in pressing charges in the event their bid is rejected, though The Bee's Marcos Breton raises the idea that the Maloofs could wind up suing the league.
Earlier updates:
- The notion that the Seattle group would own any portion of the Kings while they continued to play in Sacramento is a non-starter for the league, tweets Aaron Bruski of NBCSports.com.
- Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com, who broke last night's story, heard some owners around the league remain concerned about the ability of Sacramento investors to close and execute their plan to build a new arena in the city. According to Bruski, there is no such concern among the league's owners (Twitter link).
- Bruski's league sources maintain that the NBA's decision will come down to how it feels about the Sacramento bidders, regardless of what Seattle does. One source insists that Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, a primary investor in Chris Hansen's Seattle group, can't simply throw money around and expect to get his way. The Seattle investors have twice upped their offer for the majority share of the team (All Twitter links).
- The NBA's relocation committee will hold a conference call Monday, and the day "is going to be crazy," a source tells Ailene Voisin of The Sacramento Bee. The source expects "substantial movement" on the issues related to the team's future by the end of tomorrow.
Raptors Expected To Retain Bryan Colangelo
The Raptors are expected to pick up their 2013/14 option on GM Bryan Colangelo's contract, reports Frank Zicarelli of the Toronto Sun, who hears the decision will be made official as early as Monday. It seemed likely when this past season ended that the Raptors would keep Colangelo and coach Dwane Casey, but that was before Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment, the company that owns the team, hired Tim Leiweke as president and CEO. Leiweke has ties to Phil Jackson and seemed intent on trying to convince the Zen Master to take over the team's basketball operations, a move that would presumably bump Colangelo from the picture.
Colangelo has said that if he's back, Casey would be, too. News on the fate of both men's jobs appeared imminent after Colangelo was scheduled to meet with Raptors brass this past Tuesday. Zicarelli argues that the task of turning around the Raptors is immense, and no one could make it happen overnight. With the Chicago pre-draft camp set for this week, Zicarelli opines, it makes sense to keep the man who's been in charge rather than waste time while a new GM become acclimated to the job. The Raptors will probably discuss possible trades involving Andrea Bargnani with executives from other teams at this week's pre-draft camp, according to Zicarelli.
While Casey, whose contract is guaranteed for next season, appears safe, it seems likely there will be changes to his staff. The Raptors have asked the Celtics for permission to speak with assistant coach Tyronn Lue, while the fate of Johnny Davis, a longtime right-hand man for Casey, is uncertain.