Southwest Notes: Grizzlies, Gay, Hornets, Mavs
The Spurs are two wins away from the NBA Finals. The Mavs are courting Deron Williams in an attempt to get back into championship contention. The Rockets want to make a splash by going after a star player this summer. The Grizzlies have been a playoff team for two years in a row. The Hornets have the No. 1 and the No. 10 picks in the draft. The Southwest Division could be the league's toughest next season, particularly if the Hornets can re-sign Eric Gordon. Here's what's happening around the Southwest now.
McMillan, Shaw Vying For Magic Coaching Job
4:35pm: Brian Shaw is waiting to hear from the Magic as the Bobcats are out of the picture for him, tweets Brian Schmitz of the Orlando Sentinel. Schmitz also tweets a quote from a league source who believes Shaw is the only coach capable of reaching Dwight Howard.
Draft Notes: Robinson, Hummel, Sixers
This year's draft is generally regarded as a deep one, but several teams outside the lottery are looking to trade their first-round picks so they can avoid making financial commitments to players who won't contribute right away, Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld writes. That should make for an interesting month ahead as the June 28 draft approaches.
Atlantic Rumors: King, Nets, Knicks, Raptors, Nash
Last year, Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor picked up the phone to console former Sixers front-office colleague and current Nets GM Billy King on his inability to work out a deal to bring Carmelo Anthony to New Jersey. While they were on the line, King suggested a deal involving Deron Williams, and soon thereafter the blockbuster was a reality. That's just one of the tidbits that Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News reveals in a must-read piece about King.
Money Time: Upcoming Free Agents In The Playoffs
Three of the four conference finalists should return next season with their rosters largely intact, as the Thunder, Heat and Spurs all have at least eight players with fully guaranteed contracts for next season. By contrast, the Celtics only have four such players, so this week's Money Time has a heavy Boston influence. This week, we'll expand our look at free agents in the playoffs to include players with option years and non-guaranteed deals for 2012/13, and next week we'll wrap it up by identifying the free agents who've had the best and worst postseasons overall.
Los Angeles Rumors: Olshey, Gasol, Brown
- Dwight Jaynes of CSNNW.com observes that Rich Cho, the last GM candidate who traveled abroad to speak with Blazers owner Paul Allen about the position, as Clippers GM Neil Olshey has reportedly done, wound up getting the job.
- We passed along today that Sam Smith of Bulls.com hears Pau Gasol would be interested in playing for the Bulls, but Kyler doesn't think Chicago would take on Gasol's contract, which has two seasons and close to $38.3MM left on it (Twitter link).
- Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld would be "more than shocked" if the Lakers fire coach Mike Brown, despite the team's first-round struggles and second-round ouster in the playoffs (Twitter link).
- Earlier this evening I examined the upcoming free agency of Lakers backup big man Jordan Hill.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jordan Hill
A little more than two months ago, Jordan Hill seemed like he might be on his way out of the league. He was buried on the Lakers bench after a midseason trade from the Rockets, passed over for backup minutes at power forward and center in favor of Troy Murphy and Josh McRoberts.
Yet as the Thunder built an 18-point lead against the Lakers in a game during the last week of the regular season, Lakers coach Mike Brown summoned Hill off the bench, and the former eighth overall pick responded with 15 rebounds, six of them on the offensive end, to go along with 14 points in 35 minutes as L.A. came back to win in double overtime. From then on, Hill was the primary backup for both Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, averaging 4.8 points and 6.3 rebounds in 18.1 minutes per game in the playoffs. His offensive rebounding percentage of 18.9 is the best in the postseason so far. Suddenly, Hill is back on the radar for teams looking to improve their frontcourt depth and second-chance points.
The Lakers seem to be interested in bringing him back, but they'll have some limitations on how much they can give him, thanks to his former team. The Rockets, when they held his rights, declined the $3,632,527 team option on his contract for next season, making him an unrestricted free agent this summer. According to Larry Coon's CBA FAQ, a team can't decline an option for a player on his rookie contract, like Hill, and attempt to re-sign him for the next season at a salary greater than the value of his option. That holds true for a team that inherits such a player's rights via trade, as the Lakers have done with Hill. According to Eric Pincus of HoopsWorld, the most Hill could get from the Lakers this summer is $20.9MM over five years, with a first-year salary matching that $3.6MM option. Another team could sign him for as much as $21.4MM over four years, but I don't think anyone is willing to pay quite that much for him.
If Hill leaves the Lakers, he could be an option for the Celtics, who had the worst offensive rebounding percentage of any team in the league this season and were riddled with injuries to frontcourt players. The Warriors, 29th in offensive rebounding, figure to improve with a healthy Andrew Bogut, so they might not pursue Hill. The Mavs, 28th in that category, could go after him as a complementary piece once they figure out what to do with the rest of their many offseason priorities. It's possible that a relatively proficient offensive rebounding team, like the Pistons, could see a bargain in a 25-year-old Hill and give him another shot as a starter. The most likely scenario involves Hill signing for a salary near that $3.6MM option amount. Whether that happens with the Lakers or not hinges largely on what the team does with Gasol and Bynum. If they're both back, I'd expect Hill to be back, too, since he allows the Lakers to go to their bench without much dropoff on the offensive glass, one of the team's hallmarks.
The Relative Value Of Lottery Picks
It's hard to know exactly what's at stake in Wednesday's NBA draft lottery, when the order for the June 28th draft will be finalized. Anthony Davis is the clear frontrunner for the No. 1 pick, but after that, it gets murky. Beyond speculation on who gets picked when and by whom, there's really no telling how any of the draft prospects will turn out once they become pros. The history of the draft is full of stories about "can't miss" phenoms who never fulfilled their ballyhooed potential. Still, history can tell us a little about the relative likelihood of draftees becoming productive NBA players.
Below is the average career PER for players taken with each of the top 14 picks since 2003, when the lottery expanded to 14 teams. PER, or player efficiency rating, is a catch-all metric developed by John Hollinger of ESPN.com to provide a concise per-minute assessment of a player's performance, as Basketball-Reference explains. Like any single statistic, it's not infallible, and overrates some players who don't see much time on the floor. That's one reason why, for instance, Mouhamed Sene and J.J. Redick have the same career per of 13.5. Still, it's interesting to see what it says about a group of draft picks over time.
Most striking is the difference between the average PER for a No. 1 pick and every other position in the lottery. The 20.1 PER for recent No. 1 picks is 32% higher than that of No. 2 picks, and 23% higher than the 16.3 PER for No. 4 picks, the next best average. So, that's one more reason teams will be rooting hard to move into the top position Wednesday. The rest of the top 10 is bunched up, with another drop from there. Here are the numbers:
1st: 20.1
2nd: 15.2
3rd: 15.7
4th: 16.3
5th: 15.3
6th: 13.6
7th: 15.0
8th: 13.0
9th: 14.8
10th: 14.2
11th: 11.6
12th: 11.9
13th: 12.7
14th: 12.6
Note: We've assigned zeroes for 2011 No. 5 pick Jonas Valanciunas and 2005 No. 11 pick Fran Vasquez, who've yet to play in the NBA. If Valanciunas is left out of calculations, the average PER for the No. 5 pick is 17.2, and without Vasquez, the PER for No. 11 picks jumps to 13.0.
GM Rumors: Olshey, Blazers, Magic, Kupchak
Earlier today we rounded up the latest from Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld on the Magic's search for a new GM, and the news continues to come in from Orlando as well as from Portland, where the Blazers are also looking for a GM. Here's what we're hearing:
- Clippers GM Neil Olshey recently spoke to Blazers owner Paul Allen about Portland's GM position, reports Ken Berger of CBSSports.com, who notes Olshey is not under contract for next season (Twitter links).
- Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak has emerged as the No. 1 candidate for the Blazers GM job and the team is awaiting his decision, Kyler tweets. Kyler says Chris Mullin is next in line if Kupchak turns Portland down, contradicting what we heard last week about Mullin suggesting he was not in the running.
- Kupchak is also a candidate for the Magic's GM position, but Kyler isn't sure he'd take that job, as he'd like to continue working with Andrew Bynum (Twitter link). That said, a swap of Bynum for Dwight Howard, as has been discussed, would allow Kupchak to bring the big man to Florida with him.
- Kyler said earlier that the Magic would have to move quickly if they wanted Kevin Pritchard for their GM job, and now Berger tweets that the team has reached out to him.
- Jeff Bower will interview for the Magic GM job this week, Berger reports (Twitter link). Bower interviewed earlier this month for same position with the Blazers.
Atlantic Rumors: Sixers, Humphries, Landry, Knicks
The Celtics make their third appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals in the last five years when they open up against the Heat tonight. Here's the latest from other teams in the division hoping to build toward that kind of consistent success.
- If the Sixers decide to use the amnesty clause to wipe the $18.16MM due Elton Brand next year off their cap, Nets power forward Kris Humphries will be their No. 1 target to replace him via free agency, writes John Mitchell of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Carl Landry is also the kind of power forward the Sixers like, Mitchell says.
- Mitchell, in the same piece, says he doesn't put too much stock in Lou Williams' comments suggesting he'll be back with the Sixers, and hears that the 25-year-old combo guard will seek "a nice, long-term deal" after turning down his $5.35MM option for next season.
- Giorgos Printezis, a 6'9" forward who hit the game-winning shot for Olympiacos of Greece in the Euroleague championship earlier this month, told Nikos Varlas of Eurohoops he would entertain offers this summer from the Knicks, who hold his NBA rights (hat tip to Emiliano Carchia of Sportando).
- Steve Kyler of HoopsWorld believes the Knicks, who officially removed the interim tag from coach Mike Woodson's title Friday, were the only "real option" for luring Phil Jackson out of retirement (Twitter link).
- Luke Adams looked at the summer ahead for the Sixers earlier today in the latest installment of our Offseason Outlook feature.