Draft Notes: Lillard, Moser, Calipari
With less than 48 hours to go before the NCAA tournament brackets are revealed and conference tournaments nearing their climaxes, many basketball fans are turning their attention to the college game, even with the NBA trade deadline looming. NBA diehards, not to mention plenty of NBA scouts, will be taking a hard look at draft prospects the next few weeks. With that in mind, here are a few draft-related notes:
- The NCAA tournament is always full of top prospects, but several are on teams that won't be a part of it, notes ESPN's Chad Ford. Weber State point guard Damian Lillard, Illinois center Meyers Leonard and North Texas forward Tony Mitchell all fall into this category. (Insider only)
- Tommy Dee of Sheridan Hoops takes a look at UNLV forward Mike Moser.
- Kentucky coach John Calipari has met with Billy Hunter, executive director of the players union, to see what it would take to get the union to agree to do away with one-and-done players in college, reports Steve Wieberg of USA Today. Calipari is seeking a two-year waiting period between high school and the NBA for players, instead of just one.
Trade Candidate: Jose Calderon
Every year around this time, it seems, there are suggestions that the Raptors could do better at point guard than Jose Calderon. And yet he still remains in Toronto, now in his seventh season as a Raptor. He's barely a double-figure scorer, averaging 10.9 PPG this season after putting up only 9.8 PPG a year ago, but his 8.8 APG this season has him third in the league in that category. That number isn't a fluke, either, as two of the previous three seasons he averaged 8.9 APG.
Perhaps the reason he pops up in trade rumors so consistently is that other teams covet his playmaking ability. Yesterday we passed along Marc Stein's report in which he said the Lakers have inquired about Calderon, but the Raptors are unwilling to take on salary in such a deal. Calderon makes $9.78MM this season, so he wouldn't fit into the $8.9MM trade exception the Lakers have, and other parts would have to be added to the deal.
The reason the Raptors may be so reluctant to add salary this year might be because they're bumping up against the luxury tax threshold. Strange as it may be for a team with an 11-25 record, the Raps' $69.72MM cap hit this year, according to Storytellers Contracts, is not far below the $70.307MM tax line. That may also be reason why Toronto would be reluctant to offer Calderon to the Suns in a deal that would bring home native Canadian Steve Nash, who makes more than Calderon does.
Hasan Alanam of Canada.com explored five possible destinations for Calderon last month, pegging the Lakers, Hawks, Blazers, Jazz and Magic as potential suitors. There's even a rumor suggesting he'll end up in Orlando as part of a Dwight Howard deal. While the possibilities abound, don't expect this year's trade deadline to be any different for Calderon. I'm inclined to believe he'll be sticking around, but next season, when he 's due $10.56MM in the final year of his contract, may be when the Raps finally make their move.
Odds & Ends: Stern, Hawks, Clippers
Leave it to LeBron James to wind up in the spotlight again amidst Linsanity and the impending trade deadline. He passed up a potential game-winning shot against Utah to give the ball to Udonis Haslem instead, and Haslem missed to give the Jazz a 99-98 win. Still, as Chris Tomasson of Fox Sports Florida points out, it was the first time James has ever gone back-to-back games without committing a turnover. James will surely be with the Heat for a while, but here are a few notes on more fluid situations:
- Changes are afoot for slumping Cleveland, where Cavs coach Byron Scott is giving thought to juggling his rotation and starting lineup after his team lost its fourth straight tonight, writes Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio. With the trade deadline approaching, the team must soon decide what to do with Ramon Sessions and Antawn Jamison, Amico says.
- Bucks backup point guard Beno Udrih would be on board with a trade if one happens, notes Lang Greene of HoopsWorld.
- ESPN's John Hollinger, writing from the Sloan Sports Analytics Conferences, says the numbers don't add up in the Kings arena deal. He believes the league provided financial support to the cash-strapped Maloof brothers so they could make their $73MM contribution to the deal. (Insider link)
- John Schuhmann of NBA.com rounded up Celtics coach Doc Rivers' irritated pregame remarks about the trade rumors swirling around his team. In particular, he took aim at the belief the Celtics are shopping Rajon Rondo and the "ridiculous" idea that Pau Gasol may be headed to Boston. For Rondo, whose name has come up in trade talks many times before, it feels like "deja vu," notes Andrew Perna of RealGM.
- A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com looks at Celtics free agent signee Mickael Pietrus, who's finally displaying his all-around game now that he's healthy, Blakely says.
- Marc Gasol, used to fielding rumors involving his brother Pau, is surprised that Raptors point guard Jose Calderon, another Spanish Olympic teammate, is coming up in trade talk as well, reports Mike Ganter of the Toronto Sun.
- Frank Isola of the New York Daily News believes the Knicks have assembled their most talented roster in 12 years.
- Jeremy Lin isn't the only waiver pickup exceeding expectations for the Knicks, as Steve Novak has been a major beneficiary of his more famous teammate's play, as Ben Bolch examines in the Chicago Tribune.
- Former Clippers and current Suns coach Alvin Gentry admires the team the Clips have put together this year, writes Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times.
- Paul Coro of The Arizona Republic points out that Suns guard Shannon Brown, who'll hit the free agent market this summer, has a deceptive career high of 8.9 PPG this year. This has also been one of his worst shooting seasons.
- Maturity is the difference between the Gerald Green who flamed out with the Celtics a few years ago and the player who just returned to the league with the Nets, observes Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald.
Poll: Which Team Is Most Likely To Land A Star?
Last night we asked you which star is most likely to be dealt at the March 15 trade deadline, and so far the results seem split between Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Monta Ellis, with a slight edge to Howard. So, the next question is where you think those stars could be going before the deadline. The Nets, Warriors, Rockets and Lakers all seem to either be actively pursuing big names or have been frequently linked to major trade candidates. The Knicks always seem to be lurking around the perimeter of splashy moves, too. Without regard to where superstars might sign in the offseason, which of these teams do you think is most likely to land a marquee talent?
Which Team Is Most Likely To Land A Star?
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Los Angeles Lakers 40% (398)
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New Jersey Nets 25% (253)
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None of the above 16% (164)
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Golden State Warriors 9% (90)
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Houston Rockets 6% (56)
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New York Knicks 5% (46)
Total votes: 1,007
Recent Deadline Deals With Playoff Impact
In 2006, the Heat acquired veteran shooting guard Derek Anderson at the deadline to add depth to a roster led by Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal. The Heat won the NBA title that year, but since then, no team that dealt for anyone within a week of the trade deadline has gone on to win the championship. Still, there have been a few players acquired at the deadline since then who’ve made their presence felt on teams that have advanced in the playoffs the same year. Let’s take a look at recent deals that have had immediate playoff impact here:
- The same year the Heat picked up Anderson, Cavs GM Danny Ferry traded Mike Wilks and cash to Seattle for Ronald Murray, better known as Flip. He helped them into the playoffs for the first time in the LeBron James era, and played more postseason minutes than anyone on the team except LeBron and Eric Snow, averaging 8.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG and 1.6 APG as the Cavs beat the Wizards in the first round and took top-seeded Detroit to seven games in the conference semis.
- Ferry and the Cavs were active again in 2008, this time in a major way. They picked up Ben Wallace, Joe Smith, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West in a three-team deal with the Bulls and Sonics. Wallace, Szczerbiak and West made up three-fifths of the team’s starting lineup. Both West and Szczerbiak averaged 10.8 PPG in the playoffs, tying them for third on the team behind LeBron and Zydrunas Ilgauskas. Wallace was the team’s third leading postseason rebounder at 6.5 a night, and averaged more than one block every night playing just 23.4 MPG. Smith averaged 6.6 PPG and 4.6 RPG and teamed with Anderson Varejao to give the Cavs plenty of size off the bench as they again knocked off the Wizards and went seven games with the eventual champion Celtics.
- No list of meaningful moves would be complete without an entry from R.C. Buford and the Spurs. In 2008, San Antonio dealt Francisco Elson, Brent Barry and a 2009 first-round pick to the Sonics for Kurt Thomas. The veteran big man started eight of the 17 playoff games the Spurs played that season, averaging 15.8 MPG, 4.1 PPG and 4.9 RPG as San Antonio survived a seven-game challenge from the upstart Hornets to get to the Western Conference Finals.
- When Jameer Nelson dislocated his shoulder and suffered a torn labrum in early February against Dallas in 2009, playing in June seemed out of the question for the Magic. GM Otis Smith traded Brian Cook to Houston at the deadline for Rafer Alston and suddenly Orlando had the point guard who would help them get to the Finals. Alston started every game of the playoffs, even after Nelson returned in the Finals, and averaged 12.2 PPG and 4.1 APG. Curiously, he was shipped to New Jersey just days after the Finals ended, and the Magic haven’t been back since.
- The loophole Ferry and the Cavs used in 2010 to improve their team at the deadline without ultimately giving up much has been closed in the new collective bargaining agreement. Cleveland picked up Antawn Jamison from the Wizards in return for Zydrunas Ilgauskas, the rights to Emir Preldzic and a 2010 first-rounder. Ilgauskas was bought out by the Wizards and returned to the Cavs a month later, which he wouldn’t be able to do under the new rules. Jamison became Cleveland’s starting power forward and was the team’s second-leading postseason scorer in 2010, averaging 15.3 PPG and 7.4 RPG. The advantage the Cavs gained with Ilgauskas was minimal, however, as he put up just 1.7 PPG and 1.6 RPG in 9.9 MPG off the bench.
- We’ll include this one because it came tantalizingly close to qualifying as a deadline pickup for a championship team. Instead, the Celtics and GM Danny Ainge fell in Game 7 of the Finals to the Lakers after acquiring Nate Robinson and Marcus Landry from the Knicks in February 2010 for Eddie House, J.R. Giddens, Bill Walker and a second-round pick. Landry only played one regular season game for the Celtics, and while Robinson had his moments in the playoffs, he averaged just 4.2 PPG in 7.5 minutes a night.
- No one thought Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace would have an impact on the playoffs last year when picked up Shane Battier and Ishmael Smith from the Rockets in exchange for his unfortunate former No. 2 pick Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll and a future first-rounder. That was before Battier played more postseason minutes than any other Memphis reserve, averaging 5.5 PPG and 4.0 RPG for an eighth-seeded Grizzlies that fell just one game shy of the Western Conference Finals. We’ll see if Battier can provide a similar boost for the Heat this year.
- In a trade that looks even better now, Thunder GM Sam Presti gave his team an inside presence for the stretch run last year when they got Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson from the Celtics in exchange for Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, a first-round draft pick and cash. Perkins started every postseason game at center and gave Oklahoma City 4.5 PPG and 6.1 RPG, to go along with defense and championship experience. The Thunder advanced in the postseason for the first time since moving from Seattle.
Odds & Ends: Cavs, Udrih, Kings
Leave it to LeBron James to wind up in the spotlight again amidst Linsanity and the impending trade deadline. He passed up a potential game-winning shot against Utah to give the ball to Udonis Haslem instead, and Haslem missed to give the Jazz a 99-98 win. Still, as Chris Tomasson of Fox Sports Florida points out, it was the first time James has ever gone back-to-back games without committing a turnover. James will surely be with the Heat for a while, but here are a few notes on more fluid situations:
- Changes are afoot for slumping Cleveland, where Cavs coach Byron Scott is giving thought to juggling his rotation and starting lineup after his team lost its fourth straight tonight, writes Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio. With the trade deadline approaching, the team must soon decide what to do with Ramon Sessions and Antawn Jamison, Amico says.
- Bucks backup point guard Beno Udrih would be on board with a trade if one happens, notes Lang Greene of HoopsWorld.
- ESPN's John Hollinger, writing from the Sloan Sports Analytics Conferences, says the numbers don't add up in the Kings arena deal. He believes the league provided financial support to the cash-strapped Maloof brothers so they could make their $73MM contribution to the deal. (Insider link)
- John Schuhmann of NBA.com rounded up Celtics coach Doc Rivers' irritated pregame remarks about the trade rumors swirling around his team. In particular, he took aim at the belief the Celtics are shopping Rajon Rondo and the "ridiculous" idea that Pau Gasol may be headed to Boston. For Rondo, whose name has come up in trade talks many times before, it feels like "deja vu," notes Andrew Perna of RealGM.
- A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com looks at Celtics free agent signee Mickael Pietrus, who's finally displaying his all-around game now that he's healthy, Blakely says.
- Marc Gasol, used to fielding rumors involving his brother Pau, is surprised that Raptors point guard Jose Calderon, another Spanish Olympic teammate, is coming up in trade talk as well, reports Mike Ganter of the Toronto Sun.
- Frank Isola of the New York Daily News believes the Knicks have assembled their most talented roster in 12 years.
- Jeremy Lin isn't the only waiver pickup exceeding expectations for the Knicks, as Steve Novak has been a major beneficiary of his more famous teammate's play, as Ben Bolch examines in the Chicago Tribune.
- Former Clippers and current Suns coach Alvin Gentry admires the team the Clips have put together this year, writes Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times.
- Paul Coro of The Arizona Republic points out that Suns guard Shannon Brown, who'll hit the free agent market this summer, has a deceptive career high of 8.9 PPG this year. This has also been one of his worst shooting seasons.
- Maturity is the difference between the Gerald Green who flamed out with the Celtics a few years ago and the player who just returned to the league with the Nets, observes Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald.
Poll: Which Star Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
With less than two weeks to go until the March 15th trade deadline, plenty of names are being thrown around. A few of the names carry more weight than others, and one of the greatest thrills NBA fans have is when a superstar goes from one team to another, altering the landscape of the league. Last year, Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams were the marquee names trading places, and there's no shortage of candidates to follow in their footsteps this time around. Given all the talk we've heard so far, which star rumored to be on the move do you think is most likely to be traded this year? Share your best guess with us here:
Which Star Is Most Likely To Be Traded?
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Dwight Howard 26% (355)
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Pau Gasol 23% (310)
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Monta Ellis 22% (300)
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Rajon Rondo 15% (204)
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None of the above 14% (196)
Total votes: 1,365
Northwest Notes: Blazers, Carroll, Howard
Oklahoma City, with Western Conference player of the month Kevin Durant, casts a shadow over the rest of the Pacific Division, with a nine and a half game lead over second-place Denver. The Nuggets, who currently occupy the eighth playoff spot, Blazers, Timberwolves and Jazz are all within two and a half games of each other, so every team in the division has a shot at the postseason. Here what's going on with a couple of those teams:
- Jeff Kramer, the man behind the superb Storytellers Contracts database, made note of a few little-known facts about the Blazers' payroll in this piece on SB Nation. He notes that Portland can't trade this year's first-round draft pick and wonders whether cost-conscious teams may take an extra look at Wesley Matthews, since his contract is cheaper than his cap hit. The lack of an extension for Nicolas Batum may save the Blazers cap space even if they re-sign him, Kramer writes, and he notes that the team is unlikely to make a move to go back over the tax line this year.
- Jason Quick of The Oregonian thinks the Blazers have hit a dead end, and believes major changes are coming. He doesn't see coach Nate McMillan returning next year, and predicts the team will also let go of Marcus Camby, Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton, and Jamal Crawford. A deadline deal would mean the team is interested in making the playoffs this year, while standing pat is a sign that points to rebuilding.
- DeMarre Carroll, who signed with the Jazz last month, has played only three minutes so far, but the veteran of four different teams in three seasons is not showing any frustration, writes Brian T. Smith of The Salt Lake Tribune.
- Jazz coach Tyrone Corbin is toying with a change to his starting lineup, but won't make the call until Raja Bell returns from injury, tweets Smith. Josh Howard, a free agent at the end of the season, has impressed Corbin as a fill-in starter. (Twitter link)
Modest Proposal: Ellis, Beasley, Allen
It can be difficult to find two willing trade partners with assets that match each other’s needs. Bringing another team into the mix adds another set of needs to the equation, but it also provides another set of players and salaries to plug a deal’s holes. We’ve heard rumors about the Wolves' willingness to trade Michael Beasley, perhaps to the Celtics. Unless Wolves GM David Kahn is ready to unload Beasley on the cheap, which seems unlikely to me, it’s not immediately clear how the Celtics could make such a deal worthwhile to Minnesota. The most obvious need the Wolves have is at shooting guard, and while Ray Allen would certainly help them secure a playoff spot this year, he becomes a free agent in July, the same month he turns 37. Allen wouldn’t fit the long-term needs of a team still a ways from contending.
Meanwhile, Golden State has apparently been dangling Monta Ellis in their ongoing quest to land Dwight Howard. Yet as the Magic strengthen their resolve to keep Howard past the trade deadline, it becomes increasingly clear the Warriors’ only shot at Howard will come in free agency. Currently, according to Storytellers Contracts, Golden State has close to $47.32MM in cap commitments for next season, which puts them only about $10MM below next year’s expected salary cap of $58.04MM. If they could turn Monta Ellis and his $11MM-per-year deal into an expiring contract, they could open up enough money to sign Howard and still add some extra parts around him.
A three-way trade sending Beasley and Anthony Randolph to Boston, Ellis to Minnesota and Allen to Golden State could benefit all three teams. The Wolves would get a high-scoring shooting guard who’s signed through 2014 to help them climb up a few more pegs in the West. The Warriors would end the longstanding debate over whether Ellis and Stephen Curry could coexist, get a veteran mentor for surprising rookie Klay Thompson, and cap room to go after Howard and others this summer. The aging Celtics would get a 23-year-old former No. 2 overall pick to start their rebuilding process. They’d also get 22-year-old Randolph, who isn’t seeing much time this year but put up 11.7 PPG and 5.2 RPG in 20.1 MPG for the Wolves last year after they acquired him as the third team in the Carmelo Anthony deal. It’s worth noting, too, that Randolph’s 17.4 PER this season exceeds Beasley’s 13.7.
There are plenty of reasons why this trade wouldn’t work. The Warriors might be skittish about letting Ellis go without any promise of Howard. If the Celtics find Rajon Rondo’s behavior immature, they may be wary of Beasley’s brushes with the law. Still, there are plenty of reasons why this three-teamer is at least worth exploring.
Odds & Ends: Draft, O’Neal, Heat
On this date 50 years ago, Wilt Chamberlain delivered his 100-point game for the Warriors against the Knicks in Hershey, Pa. Chamberlain averaged more than 50 points a game that season, but wasn't the MVP. Instead, Bill Russell got the nod. You'd figure having that over his friend Wilt would convince Russell to speak openly on the anniversary of Wilt's accomplishment, but as Ken Berger of CBSSports.com noted last night, he doesn't want to talk about it. Here are a few notes from today's NBA, where plenty more are willing to open their mouths:
- Berger offers a primer on dissecting trade talk as the rumor mill nears peak season. The keys are to consider the source, discount mere discussion, and know that when one coach or team executive denies a trade rumor, another could be working on that very deal in the next office.
- Michael Lee of The Washington Post is the latest to call this year's draft class, led by Kentucky big man Anthony Davis, one of the deepest in years. But top draft prospects Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Cody Zeller, Perry Jones and Quincy Miller are all giving indications they may stay in school, writes ESPN's Chad Ford. (Insider link)
- Celtics center Jermaine O'Neal, rumored to be part of a potential Michael Beasley deal, is considering season-ending wrist surgery, reports Paul Flannery of WEEI radio.
- South Florida Sun Sentinel writer Ira Winderman answered reader questions about the Heat. The efficiency of the Heat's rotation has kept the Heat out of trade talks this year, but team president Pat Riley remains on the lookout for any available top-tier talent.
- Sam Smith opened up his Bulls.com mailbag, too. He doesn't foresee Chicago making a deal, and doesn't seem them signing draft-day acquisition Nikola Mirotic any time soon, either. He believes the 6'10" big man with the inside-outside game, currently playing overseas, is at least a couple years away from joining the Bulls. He also says the notion that Beasley could be had for a second-round pick, an idea advanced by Berger in his piece, says plenty about how far the former No. 2 overall pick has plummeted.