Community Shootaround: Grizzlies’ Postseason Outlook
The Grizzlies have been one of the NBA’s most impressive overachievers in 2021/22. Oddsmakers projected Memphis to finish the season with a record around .500, but the team has already comfortably exceeded that projection, putting up a 44-22 record to date.
Even if they slump a little down the stretch, the Grizzlies look like a safe bet to exceed 50 wins and claim one of six guaranteed playoff spots in the West. If they continue playing like they have all season, they’d do much better than that — they’re on pace to win 55 games and claim the conference’s No. 2 seed.
The Grizzlies’ ascension has been led by Ja Morant, who has become a legitimate MVP contender, and Jaren Jackson Jr., a strong All-Defensive candidate who may receive Defensive Player of the Year consideration. Morant and Jackson have anchored a Memphis squad that ranks fifth in the NBA in offense and eighth in defense in 2021/22.
Sharpshooter Desmond Bane, who is averaging 17.8 PPG with a .412 3PT%, leads an impressive group of role players that also includes second-leading scorer Dillon Brooks (who has been limited to just 21 games due to a series of injuries), center Steven Adams, guards Tyus Jones and De’Anthony Melton, and forwards Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clarke, and Ziaire Williams.
Those players all have something in common — not a single one has celebrated his 30th birthday. At age 28, Adams is the oldest player on one of the NBA’s younger rosters.
As good as the Grizzlies have been this season, the conventional thinking is that young teams like this one generally have to pay their dues in the playoffs, gaining valuable postseason experience before they make a real breakthrough.
Two teams that Memphis has been compared to are good examples of this phenomenon — the up-and-coming Thunder team that featured Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and Serge Ibaka lost in the first round of the 2010 playoffs after winning 50 regular season games, then advanced to the Western Finals in 2011 and the NBA Finals in 2012. In 2013 and 2014, a Warriors team featuring Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green won just a single playoff series before they broke through for a championship in 2015.
On the other hand, it was just last spring that two rising young teams ended multiyear playoff droughts and made deep postseason runs — the Suns appeared in the NBA Finals in their first playoff appearance since 2010, while the Hawks made the Eastern Finals. It was the first time that players like Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Deandre Ayton, Trae Young, and John Collins had appeared in the postseason, but they still managed to win multiple series.
With all that in mind, we want to know what you think of the Grizzlies’ playoff chances this spring. The projected matchups remain fluid, but if the season ended today, Memphis would face the winner of a Timberwolves/Clippers play-in game in round one, then the winner of a Warriors/Nuggets series in round two.
Is this Grizzlies team prepared to make a run to the Western Finals or the NBA Finals, or is a first- or second-round exit more likely? If you expect Memphis to bow out of the postseason early, is it more about the level of competition in the West, or do you think this squad is still at least a year or two (or a player or two) from becoming a true title contender?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts on the Grizzlies!
Southwest Notes: Mavericks, Toliver, Kleiman, Rockets
With several key Mavericks players exceeding their season-long minutes per game averages since the All-Star break, head coach Jason Kidd wants to make a concerted effort to ease those players’ workloads going forward, per Eddie Sefko of Mavs.com.
“We’d like to get more guys involved here, Sterling (Brown) and Trey (Burke),” Kidd said. “We’ve been running the minutes for those eight to nine guys that we have been playing. So we want to get everybody involved and get some of the minutes down for Luka (Doncic) and Reggie (Bullock). We’re playing Reggie over 40 minutes a night. So those are the things I’m looking at.”
As Sefko outlines, Doncic (37.5 MPG) and Bullock (37.0 MPG) have been the Mavericks’ most-used players since the All-Star break, but the team is also leaning heavily on Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith. Expanding the rotation should help the club avoid overusing those players without having to rest them for full games.
Here’s more from around the Southwest:
- Mavericks assistant – and WNBA star – Kristi Toliver spoke to Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic about how she ended up on Dallas’ coaching staff, what it’s like to remain active as a WNBA player while holding an NBA job, and her future coaching aspirations.
- In a separate story for The Athletic, Vorkunov examines Zach Kleiman‘s rapid ascension through the Grizzlies‘ front office and the admirable job he has done since becoming Memphis’ top basketball decision-maker. Kleiman has helped turn the team into a legit contender since being named executive VP of basketball operations at age 30 in 2019. “I wouldn’t be in this position without (Grizzlies owner) Robert Pera’s vision and emphasis on organizational culture,” Kleiman said. “He entrusted me to lead basketball operations despite me being a relative unknown in NBA circles, and has challenged us to be intentional about establishing and sticking to our core tenets.”
- The Rockets are in position to finish with the NBA’s worst record for a second consecutive year, but all is going according to plan, according to Rahat Huq of The Houston Chronicle, who argues that team owner Tilman Fertitta deserves credit for signing off on a full-fledged rebuild rather than trying to stay competitive as a borderline playoff contender following last year’s James Harden trade.
2021/22 NBA Reverse Standings Update
Throughout the 2021/22 NBA season, Hoops Rumors is maintaining a feature that allows you to keep an eye on the tentative 2022 draft order. Our 2021/22 Reverse Standings tool, which lists the NBA’s 30 teams from worst to first, is updated daily to reflect the outcomes of the previous night’s games.
Our Reverse Standings are essentially a reflection of what 2022’s draft order would look like with no changes to lottery position. We’ve noted each club’s odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick, based on the league’s current lottery format.
[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Draft Lottery]
In instances where two non-playoff teams or two playoff teams have identical records, the order in our standings isn’t necessarily definitive — for draft purposes, the NBA breaks ties via random drawings, so those drawings would happen at the end of the year.
Of course, the 14 non-playoff teams all draft before the 16 playoff teams, even if some non-playoff teams have better records than those that made the postseason. Our reverse standings account for playoff seeding, though for now they assume that the Nos. 7 and 8 teams in each conference will earn those final two postseason spots. Since the NBA’s play-in format opens the door for the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds to sneak into the postseason, we may have to account for a little movement in the draft order at season’s end.
Traded first-round picks are included via footnotes. For example, the note next to Charlotte’s pick says the Hornets will send their pick to the Hawks if it’s not in the top 18. As of today, the Hornets’ pick projects to be No. 15, meaning that selection wouldn’t change hands.
Currently, the Magic and Rockets are in a dead heat for the “top” spot in the reverse standings — they have matching 16-49 records, separating them from the 18-47 Pistons by two games. All three teams would have a 14% chance to receive the No. 1 overall pick if the lottery were based on today’s standings.
As we noted last week, the Lakers‘ spot in the reverse standings is worth monitoring closely down the stretch, since they’ll send their unprotected first-round pick to the Pelicans if it lands in the top 10 or to the Grizzlies if it ends up between 11-30. The 28-36 Lakers currently rank No. 11 in the reverse standings and are just a single game from moving into the top 10.
Our Reverse Standings tracker can be found at anytime on the right sidebar under “Hoops Rumors Features” on our desktop site, or on the “Features” page in our mobile menu. It’s a great resource not just for monitoring a team’s draft position, but also for keeping an eye on whether or not traded picks with protection will be changing hands in 2022. So be sure to check back often as the season progresses!
Note: Mobile users are advised to turn their phones sideways when viewing the Reverse Standings in order to see team records and lottery odds.
Jazz Notes: Wade, Gobert, Mitchell, Butler
As a part of the Jazz‘s ownership group, Dwyane Wade views it as one of his responsibilities to improve the experience for players and to narrow the “disconnect” between the people in the locker room and the people running the team, Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic writes.
Wade acknowledged that his input into basketball operations decisions is fairly limited for the time being, but he hopes to eventually take on a larger role as he gets more comfortable in his position in the front office.
“My name is probably bigger than the piece I have,” Wade told The Athletic. “As I’m trying to learn this space, I’ll hopefully one day be more involved. But right now I’m sitting back and I’m learning from (general manager) Justin Zanik, I’m learning from (CEO) Danny Ainge, and (team owner) Ryan (Smith) is as well.
“I don’t want that responsibility of trading a guy or signing a guy. That’s not my role. I don’t want anybody thinking that’s my role. My role is to give my perspective if asked. If I feel like, ‘Hey, what are we doing on this and that, these are the players that I see, that I like.’ And things about these players. Just conversations that anybody would have. But I don’t make the decisions. I’m not the decision-maker.”
Here’s more on the Jazz:
- All-Star center Rudy Gobert thought the referees in Monday’s game in Dallas let the Mavericks‘ bench get away with comments that crossed a line, as Sarah Todd of The Deseret News relays. “There were a lot of things being said that wouldn’t be said outside of a basketball court,” Gobert said. “A lot of things that I would never say. I’m not perfect but I don’t say things to guys on the court that I wouldn’t say to their face outside the locker room.” The Jazz and Mavs will play again in Dallas later this month, and could face each other in the postseason — they currently hold the fourth and fifth spots in the West.
- Tony Jones of The Athletic, in considering the Jazz’s long-term future, envisions the team eventually moving Donovan Mitchell to the point guard role on a full-time basis. If and when Mitchell assumes that role, Utah would probably want to complement him with a secondary creator and with a couple long, athletic wings who can shoot, Jones suggests. Mike Conley, the team’s current point guard, is under contract for two more seasons beyond this one, though his 2023/24 salary isn’t fully guaranteed.
- A Louisiana native, Jazz rookie Jared Butler got his first opportunity to play an NBA game in New Orleans last Friday night, logging seven minutes of mop-up time in Utah’s blowout loss to the Pelicans. Speaking to local media, Butler discussed the challenges he has faced this season during a transition period. “This year has been interesting, because it’s brand-new for me,” Butler said, per Rod Walker of NOLA.com. “The coolest thing is I get to learn right now. That’s been a change of pace for me going from playing 30 minutes a night in college to just sitting and learning. So that’s been an adjustment. But there’s also just been the adjustment to the NBA lifestyle.”
Free Agent Stock Watch: Southeast Division
For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer look at players who will be free agents or could become free agents this offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southeast players.
P.J. Tucker, F, Heat
2021/22: $7MM
2022/23: $7.35MM player option
Stock: Up ⬆️
Tucker will turn 37 years old in May, and there aren’t many non-stars in the NBA who could realistically turn down a $7.35MM guarantee at that age. Tucker might be in position to do so though. He has been everything the Heat hoped for this season, starting 56 games, playing stellar defense, and knocking down a career-high 44.9% of his three-point attempts. If that performance carries over to the postseason and he plays a key role in a deep playoff run, Tucker could realistically command one more multiyear contract this summer.
Mohamed Bamba, C, Magic
2021/22: $7.57MM
2022/23: RFA
Stock: Up ⬆️
Entering 2021/22, Bamba was facing a make-or-break year. He had battled injuries and failed to take major steps forward in his first three seasons after being drafted sixth overall in 2018. If this season had resembled his first three, he would’ve been hard-pressed to find more than a minimum-salary deal during his upcoming free agency.
Bamba has responded to the challenge, starting 52 games so far for a rebuilding Magic team and establishing new career highs in PPG (10.2), RPG (7.9), BPG (1.8), and MPG (26.1), among other categories. While he hasn’t yet reached the level that some envisioned when he was drafted, his ability to protect the rim and hit the occasional three-pointer (34.5% on 3.6 attempts per game) should make him a popular target for teams in need of a center this offseason.
Bamba will be a restricted free agent if Orlando extends him a $10.1MM qualifying offer. I expect the Magic will do so unless they don’t see Bamba as part of their future.
Thomas Bryant, C, Wizards
2021/22: $8.67MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️
Bryant hasn’t been bad since returning to action following his recovery from a torn ACL, but he hasn’t been the same player he was prior to the injury in 2019-21, when he averaged 13.4 PPG and 7.0 RPG with a .411 3PT%.
The Wizards have a -11.7 net rating when Bryant plays this season, compared to a -1.2 mark when he doesn’t. And there’s no guarantee he’ll see consistent minutes the rest of the way if Kristaps Porzingis stays healthy — Bryant was a DNP-CD in Porzingis’ Wizards debut on Sunday.
Gorgui Dieng, F/C, Hawks
2021/22: $4MM
2022/23: UFA
Stock: Down ⬇️
The Hawks presumably envisioned Dieng being a regular part of the frontcourt rotation when they used part of their mid-level exception to sign him last summer. And for a while, he was.
Dieng played in 28 of Atlanta’s first 33 games, but following a stint in the health and safety protocols and the emergence of Onyeka Okongwu, his role has all but disappeared. Dieng has only appeared in 12 of the team’s last 30 games, logging more than eight minutes just three times during that stretch. At this point, it’s hard to imagine the 32-year-old getting another offer above the minimum this summer.
Cody Martin, G/F, Hornets
2021/22: $1.78MM
2022/23: RFA
Stock: Up ⬆️
Cody’s twin brother Caleb Martin has gotten more press for his breakout year in Miami, but Cody has also taken his game to another level this season. He has averaged career highs virtually across the board, putting up 8.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.3 SPG and a .465/.406/.692 shooting line while playing an important role in Charlotte’s rotation.
While he’s probably not in line for a massive payday, Cody has assured himself of a qualifying offer (it’ll likely be worth $2.23MM) and should have some leverage to negotiate a multiyear deal with the Hornets, who won’t want to lose him in unrestricted free agency in 2023.
Jayson Tatum, Karl-Anthony Towns Named Players Of The Week
Celtics forward Jayson Tatum has been named the Eastern Conference Player of the Week for February 28 through March 6, while Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns has won the award for the Western Conference, the NBA announced today (via Twitter).
It’s the second time this season that Tatum and Towns have earned Player of the Week honors in the same week — they also both won the award on December 20.
Tatum led the Celtics to a 3-0 week, with home wins over Atlanta, Memphis, and Brooklyn. He averaged 41.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and 5.0 APG on .525/.406/.844 shooting in 39.7 MPG in those three games, capped off by a 54-point explosion vs. the Nets on Sunday.
Towns’ Timberwolves, meanwhile, enjoyed a 4-0 week, with victories over Cleveland, Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Portland. The three-time All-Star led the way with 28.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, and 1.3 BPG on 64.1% shooting in just 31.5 minutes per contest.
Tatum beat out fellow nominees Saddiq Bey, Darius Garland, Tyler Herro, Jrue Holiday, Tyrese Maxey, Terry Rozier, and Trae Young in the East. The other Western Conference nominees were De’Aaron Fox, Brandon Ingram, LeBron James, Donovan Mitchell, and Ja Morant (Twitter link).
And-Ones: MVP Race, Fenway Sports Group, 2022 Draft
The 2021/22 MVP race is one for the ages, according to John Hollinger of The Athletic, who contends that we “aren’t talking about it nearly enough.” As Hollinger outlines, Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, Sixers center Joel Embiid are each in the midst of a historic season and would be a clear MVP frontrunner if it weren’t for the presence of the other two.
If the season ended today, Hollinger notes, Jokic (32.3) and Antetokounmpo (32.0) would have the two highest single-season PERs in NBA history, while Embiid’s (31.0) would also make the top 10. Hollinger says he’d pick Jokic for MVP if forced to decide right now, but with over a month left in the season, there’s still plenty of time for Antetokounmpo and Embiid to strengthen their cases.
Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- Gerry Cardinale, a shareholder in Fenway Sports Group, says that adding an NBA franchise is “a real top priority” for the massive Boston-based firm, as Michael Silverman of The Boston Globe writes. The FSG conglomerate already owns MLB’s Boston Red Sox, the NHL’s Pittsburgh Penguins, and the Premier League’s Liverpool FC.
- Wake Forest guard Alondes Williams, Kansas guard Christian Braun, and Colorado State forward David Roddy are among the best bets to further improve their draft stock with strong performances to finish out the NCAA season, says Jonathan Wasserman of Bleacher Report. Wasserman also singles out four other prospects who are candidates to rise up draft boards in the coming weeks.
- Touching on several stories from around the NBA in his latest article for The Ringer, Kevin O’Connor makes a case for why the Knicks should lean more heavily on their young players, breaks down what Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans have brought to the Mavericks, and praises the work the Rockets have done developing their rookies this season. O’Connor also argues that the NBA should tweak its playoff format to allow top seeds to pick their first-round opponents.
Timberwolves’ Malik Beasley Fined $35K By NBA
Timberwolves swingman Malik Beasley has been fined $35K by the NBA, the league announced today (via Twitter).
The fine is a response to Beasley making “unnecessary and inappropriate” contact with Trail Blazers center Drew Eubanks during Saturday’s game, the league stated.
The incident in question occurred midway through the third quarter of Minnesota’s home win over Portland on Saturday. Beasley and Eubanks got tangled up as Blazers swingman Keon Johnson drove to the basket, and Beasley seemingly attempted to headbutt Eubanks (video link).
Beasley was hit with a technical foul and was ejected from the game.
Beasley is making $14.5MM for the Wolves this season, so the fine won’t put a significant dent into his annual earnings.
Wizards Notes: Porzingis, Bryant, Neto, Dinwiddie
Playing on Sunday for the first time since January 29, Kristaps Porzingis was on a minutes restriction in his Wizards debut upon returning from a right knee injury. However, he still managed to rack up 25 points in just over 21 minutes of action, playing a key role in the club’s victory over Indiana.
After the game, Porzingis was wearing a “perma-grin” when he spoke to reporters, according to Ava Wallace of The Washington Post. The big man said his move from Dallas to Washington has been “a smooth transition all the way around,” and drew praise from his new teammates who were playing alongside him for the first time.
“It was phenomenal,” forward Kyle Kuzma said. “Teams can’t just load up on me, having that extra guy out there that causes a lot of threat to defenses. With him, he’s so versatile. … There’s a reason why they call him ‘The Unicorn.'”
With Bradley Beal out for the rest of the season due to a wrist injury, Porzingis won’t have an opportunity to develop chemistry with the Wizards’ franchise player in the coming weeks. But he said on Sunday that he looks forward to getting that chance next season, assuming Beal – who can become a free agent this summer – remains in D.C.
[RELATED: Bradley Beal Leaning Toward Re-Signing With Wizards]
“I feel good here, honestly,” Porzingis said, per Wallace. “… Hopefully we’ll have Brad next season. I don’t know what the situation is, but I would love to play with him and Kuz and the rest of the guys. I think there are some exciting things to look forward to.”
Here’s more on the Wizards:
- There may not be enough frontcourt minutes to go around with Porzingis in the rotation, Wallace writes for The Washington Post, noting that Thomas Bryant was a DNP-CD on Sunday. Bryant had previously played in 11 straight games, averaging 19.4 MPG during that stretch.
- Wizards point guard Raul Neto missed the second half of Sunday’s win due to a left ankle sprain, per Wallace. Head coach Wes Unseld Jr. said after the game that Neto was moving well and will be considered day-to-day going forward. Typically a backup, Neto has been Washington’s starting point guard since the trade deadline and was playing well, averaging 11.5 PPG and 5.1 APG on .500/.429/.773 shooting in his last 10 games.
- Responding to Spencer Dinwiddie‘s comments about his time in Washington and his claim that he was “kicked out the door,” Unseld and Kuzma both expressed a desire to move forward, according to Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington. “I’m not going to get into the accuracy of (Dinwiddie’s comments). It’s one of those things where, organizationally, it worked and he was aggressive early. We won a lot of games,” Unseld said. “Bottom-line, we had to make a change [at the trade deadline] and to get something we had to give up something. He’s a really talented guy, he’s playing well and he’s healthy. We look forward to seeing the benefit of that trade. It is what it is. I think it’s one of those things where we just have to move on and get past it.”
Projected NBA Minimum Salaries For 2022/23
The NBA’s minimum salary is one of several figures that changes from year to year at the same rate as the league’s salary cap. If the cap increases by 5% from one season to the next, the minimum salary will rise by the same amount.
That means that even though we don’t know yet exactly where the minimum salaries will end up for the 2022/23 season, we can make an educated estimate. When the NBA released its latest salary cap estimate, the league projected a $123,655,000 cap for the ’22/23 season. That’s approximately a 10% increase on this season’s cap, so the minimum salaries will increase at the same rate.
[RELATED: NBA Minimum Salaries For 2021/22]
A player’s minimum salary is determined in part by how much NBA experience he has — a veteran who has 10+ seasons under his belt is eligible for a significantly higher minimum salary than a rookie would be. Based on the current 2022/23 cap estimate, next year’s rookie minimum salary will surpass the $1MM threshold for the first time, while the minimum for a veteran with 10+ years of service will approach $3MM.
Here are the current minimum salary projections for the 2022/23 season, based on a $123,655,000 cap:
| Years of Experience | Salary |
|---|---|
| 0 | $1,017,781 |
| 1 | $1,637,966 |
| 2 | $1,836,090 |
| 3 | $1,902,133 |
| 4 | $1,968,175 |
| 5 | $2,133,278 |
| 6 | $2,298,385 |
| 7 | $2,463,490 |
| 8 | $2,628,597 |
| 9 | $2,641,682 |
| 10+ | $2,905,851 |
We’ll update these figures later this year once the NBA officially sets the salary cap for the 2022/23 season.
We previously published projections for next season’s maximum salaries and mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, based on a $122MM cap.