Broussard On Cavs, Bucks, Suns, Wolves
Cavs fans worried about what the hiring of Mike Brown might mean for the team's potential pursuit of LeBron James in 2014 shouldn't put too much stock in the move one way or the other, says Chris Broussard in his latest ESPN.com piece (Insider-only link). Brown's return to Cleveland doesn't mean LeBron is coming back too, but it also shouldn't be a deterring factor, according to Broussard, who notes that there will be plenty of other factors in play over the next 14 months. The ESPN.com scribe explores that topic and a number of others in his article, so let's round up the highlights….
- The Cavs are hoping to upgrade the roster before next summer in an attempt to lure James (or another impact free agent, presumably). As we heard from Adrian Wojnarwoski of Yahoo! Sports yesterday, Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters, and draft picks could be dangled as trade chips. Broussard mentions LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love as potential targets.
- The Bucks would like to keep all three of their free agent guards this summer, but recognize that they'll probably only be able to retain two, with Brandon Jennings the player most likely to stay put.
- Several sources around the league believed Lance Blanks, who the Suns fired earlier this week, was a scapegoat for the team's poor season. According to Broussard, the widely panned signing of Michael Beasley was Lon Babby's call, and Blanks had "little to do with" Alvin Gentry's firing as well.
- Bucks assistant GM Jeff Weltman is viewed as the frontrunner for the Suns' GM opening, says Broussard.
- Former Suns assistant Elston Turner may join Rick Adelman's staff in Minnesota, with an understanding that if Adelman steps down, Turner would take over as the Timberwolves' coach. We've heard in the past that Adelman "badly wanted" Turner on his staff when he first took the Wolves' job.
- While Kevin McHale isn't expected to step down as Rockets head coach anytime soon, Broussard hears from sources that the team would have "strong interest" in Stan Van Gundy if McHale left.
Kyler’s Latest: Korver, Bulls, Allen, Bucks
In his NBA AM piece for HoopsWorld on Monday, Steve Kyler explored the upcoming free agencies for a number of point guards on playoff teams. Today, Kyler turns his attention to the shooting guards in the postseason who could be hitting the free agent market this summer. Let's round up the notable tidbits from his piece….
- The Hawks could have interest in retaining Kyle Korver, but he also won't be the team's top priority, so Korver could accept a multiyear offer from a rival suitor before Atlanta is ready to finalize anything with him. I touched on this when I examined Korver's free agent stock last month.
- Marco Belinelli may not be back in Chicago next season, since the Bulls will be looking to upgrade the two-guard spot, according to Kyler.
- Tony Allen has good relationships with Zach Randolph and Lionel Hollins, which could be a factor if he's deciding whether or not to re-sign with the Grizzlies. However, he'd want to know whether Randolph or Hollins are part of the front office's long-term plan in Memphis, says Kyler.
- Kyler suggests that Lance Stephenson and Willie Green, who have non-guaranteed contracts with the Pacers and Clippers respectively, could make for interesting trade chips if their teams decided to pair them with another asset.
- One of the Bucks' reasons for acquiring J.J. Redick at the trade deadline was to give the team insurance in free agency, so that the team can still retain two starting guards if one of Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, or Redick receives an offer Milwaukee doesn't want to match.
Central Notes: Brown, Cavs, Bucks, Shaw
The Bucks lost again in Miami last night, falling behind 2-0 to the Heat in their first round series, but the Central's other two playoff teams are still in decent shape. The Bulls are heading to Chicago having split two games with the Nets in Brooklyn, while the Pacers will look to take a 2-0 series lead on the Hawks tonight. As we look forward to that game, let's check in on a few more Central Division items….
- According to Ric Bucher of 95.7 The Game (Sulia link), had the Cavaliers' position not been available, Mike Brown likely wouldn't have pursued another coaching job for next season, even though he would have drawn interest and perhaps received offers.
- The Cavs can't worry about what effect hiring Brown will have on their potential down-the-road pursuit of LeBron James, since Brown is the right fit for the current team, says Sam Amick of USA Today. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports had some thoughts earlier today on the Cavs' future, which he doesn't believe will include a reunion with LeBron.
- Tom Ziller of SBNation.com wonders what the Bucks were thinking when they gave up a young asset in Tobias Harris to acquire a rental (J.J. Redick) that interim coach Jim Boylan is barely playing in the postseason. I think Ziller undersells the likelihood of Milwaukee re-signing Redick using his Bird rights, which the team also acquired in the deal. But Redick's lack of playing time so far against the Heat has indeed been surprising.
- No teams have contacted the Pacers yet to ask permission to interview assistant Brian Shaw for a head coaching opening, tweets Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star. It's possible that clubs are simply waiting until after Indiana is out of the postseason, which is Donnie Walsh's preference.
Central Links: George, Pacers, Bulls, Bucks
As the Cavs work toward officially re-hiring Mike Brown as their new head coach, here are a few more Tuesday updates out of the Central Division:
- Paul George was named the NBA's Most Improved Player of 2012/13 earlier today, and Mike Wells of the Indianapolis Star tweets that a contract extension could be next for the 22-year-old. George will be entering the final year of his rookie deal this summer, making him extension-eligible, and Pacers owner Herb Simon "will be paying up," according to Wells.
- David Morway, the former Pacers GM who played a crucial role in Indiana's rebuilding process, talked to Bill Ingram of HoopsWorld about the process of rebuilding an NBA franchise, suggesting that there isn't necessarily one specific way to approach the task.
- As Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports writes in his latest column, two key contributors to the Bulls' Game Two win in Brooklyn last night, Tom Thibodeau and Nazr Mohammed, had been pursued by the Nets in the past.
- Michael Hunt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel doesn't expect the draft, free agency, or a new coach to make a huge impact for the Bucks, and wonders if a new ownership group would provide the sort of shake-up the franchise needs.
Kyler On Paul, Teague, Jack, Billups, Bledsoe
In his latest NBA AM piece for HoopsWorld, Steve Kyler focuses on the playoff point guards that may be heading for free agency once their respective seasons end. Kyler has tidbits on those players, as well as notes on Eric Bledsoe and Phil Jackson, so let's check out the highlights:
- Chris Paul is essentially a lock to re-sign with the Clippers and he'll have a "tremendous amount of input" in the team's roster moves and overall direction.
- The Hawks will extend a qualifying offer to Jeff Teague, and while the club plans to keep its options open, it's unlikely that Teague will end up leaving Atlanta.
- Jerryd Bayless is expected to decline his player option in search of a longer-term contract.
- There's mutual interest in a new deal between Jarrett Jack and the Warriors, and the team will have Jack's Bird Rights, but the Warriors figure to be well into the tax unless they can make a cost-cutting move or two, which could complicate negotiations.
- If Chauncey Billups doesn't return to the Clippers, retirement is more likely for him than signing with another club.
- The Bucks will definitely match almost any offer sheet signed by Brandon Jennings, though if he receives the max from a rival suitor, Milwaukee will "have to seriously look at that."
- While Bledsoe is expected to be an offseason trade candidate, Clippers sources are adamant that they don't need to make a decision on Bledsoe until the summer of 2014, or at least next year's trade deadline.
- With a handful of head coaching jobs already opened up, Jackson's name will pop up frequently in the next several weeks, but Kyler hears that the odds of the 11-time champion accepting a coaching job aren't great.
Central Notes: Scott, Bucks, Cavs, Pistons
Two of the league's three current head-coaching vacancies are with Central Division teams, and this morning we rounded up the latest on the Cavaliers' search. There's plenty of other news from Cleveland and the rest of the Central today, so let's dive in:
- Former Cavaliers coach Byron Scott will be a candidate for the Bucks job if the team elects not to retain Jim Boylan, tweets Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio.
- The Cavs possess four draft picks this year, but they'll likely try to package their second-rounders, at 31st and 33rd overall, to move up in the first-round, where they have picks No. 19 and, pending the lottery, No. 3, writes Bob Finnan of The News-Herald.
- Mary Schmitt Boyer of the Plain Dealer agrees, and also believes it's possible the Cavs could offer both of their first-rounders in an effort to land the No. 1 overall pick.
- The Pistons may trade their pair of second-round picks (38th and 56th overall) for a late first-rounder, Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press believes, perhaps targeting a team reluctant to shell out the guaranteed money required to sign first-round picks.
- MLive's David Mayo surmises that the Pistons structured Lawrence Frank's contract to end in 2014, when they were scheduled to have ample cap space. Freeing themselves from the contracts of Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince to create room this summer accelerated Frank's exit, Mayo opines.
Qualifying Offers And The Starter Criteria
As we explained a year ago when the 2011/12 regular season ended, new details of the league's Collective Bargaining Agreement have slightly modified the usual process for restricted free agency. The qualifying offers teams extend to potential restricted free agents are now based, in some instances, on a newly-defined "starter criteria."
The CBA describes a "starter" as either starting 41 games or playing 2,000 minutes in a season, and rewards players for meeting those criteria. If a player achieved one of those benchmarks in the season prior to his free agency, or averaged one of those benchmarks in the two seasons leading up to his free agency, his qualifying offer will be affected as follows:
- A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter critera will receive a same qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick.
- A played picked between 10th and 30th who meets the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick.
- A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick.
Because the 2009 class of first-round picks will be hitting restricted free agency this season, the 2009/10 rookie scale will dictate the qualifying offers received. Using RealGM's rookie scale chart for 2009, we can calculate the qualifying offers as follows:
- 120% of the amount applicable to the ninth overall pick is $4,531,459.
- 120% of the amount applicable to the 15th overall pick is $4,135,391.
- 100% of the amount applicable to the 21st overall pick is $2,785,146.
So which players will be affected by this new rule this summer? Using our list of free agents (restricted FAs are marked with R), the above calculations, and the starter criteria, this offseason's modified qualifying offers are listed below. Teams will have to offer these free agents a one-year contract worth the listed amount to make them restricted — otherwise they'll become unrestricted and can freely sign with any club.
Top-14 picks who failed to meet the starter criteria and will now be eligible for a QO of $4,135,391 (previously anticipated QO in parentheses):
- Tyler Hansbrough, Pacers ($4,225,423)
Players picked between 10th and 30th who met the starter criteria and will now be eligible for a QO of $4,531,459 (previously anticipated QO in parentheses):
- Brandon Jennings, Bucks ($4,330,469)
- Gerald Henderson, Bobcats ($4,267,426)
- Jeff Teague, Hawks ($3,469,568)
- Darren Collison, Mavericks ($3,342,175)
- Byron Mullens, Bobcats ($3,293,976)
Other free agents with three years or less in the NBA who met the starter criteria and will be eligible for a QO of $2,785,146:
- None. Although restricted free agents like Nikola Pekovic (Timberwolves) and Tiago Splitter (Spurs) also met the starter criteria, both players are already in line for higher QOs because they were signed to larger deals using cap space (Pekovic) or the mid-level exception (Splitter).
Free Agent Stock Watch: Monta Ellis
Monta Ellis appears likely to exercise his early-termination option and get out of his $11MM contract with the Bucks for next season, and the GMs who spoke to Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times agree he's in line for a paycut. Ellis is the NBA's 11th leading scorer this year at 19.2 points per game and is headed for his third straight finish among the top five in steals per game, but those figures belie his inefficiency and inattentiveness in defense.
The former second-round pick of the Warriors has seen his field goal, three-point and free throw shooting percentages decline in each of the past two seasons. This year, his shooting line is .413/.279/.772, and part of the reason his scoring output is so high is because he's taken the fifth most field goal attempts in the league. He's jacking up 3.9 three-pointers a game this season, far too many for someone who makes less than 30% of them. Observers, including Rob Mahoney of SI.com, have pegged him as a defensive liability during his career in part for his habit of watching the ball when he should be looking at his man. Ellis' defensive win shares leaped to 3.3 this season, a drastic improvement on his previous career high of 1.9, though it's hard to accurately convey defense through statistics.
Woelfel hears Ellis would be "quite receptive" to joining the Grizzlies, though he points to their likely shortage of cap space as reason to doubt that Ellis winds up in Memphis. The Journal Times scribe mentions the Hawks, Suns, Mavs and Timberwolves as teams that figure to be in the market for two-guards in the offseason, noting the connection between Atlanta and Ellis at the trade deadline this year. The Hawks made Ellis their primary target in a proposed Josh Smith trade with the Bucks. I don't think Ellis will be that high on Atlanta GM Danny Ferry's list come the summer, since the Hawks will no doubt go after Dwight Howard and other maximum-salary level talents first.
Ferry and company may view him as a complementary piece and pursue Ellis after they sign another player for the max, a stance that other teams with cap room, like the Suns and Mavs, could take as well. The Mavs and Ellis' teammate Brandon Jennings reportedly have mutual interest, so if Jennings signs in Dallas and the Bucks fail to match, that would probably take the Mavs off the table for Ellis, unless the team is eager to duplicate a backcourt that's proven only mediocre in Milwaukee.
The Timberwolves could have plenty of cap space, too, if Andrei Kirilenko declines his $10.219MM player option and the team allows restricted free agent Nikola Pekovic to depart. If Kirilenko opts in and the team is confident Nikola Pekovic won't see an offer close to the max, the team would have room sign Ellis to fill its longstanding hole at shooting guard with a starting salary in the neighborhood of $10MM. That would be less than Ellis would make next year on his option, but a contract for three or four years could give the 27-year-old much more guaranteed cash in the long run.
Players are often attracted to the offer with the most guaranteed money, with plenty of reason given the fragility of an NBA career. Still, there's no indication that Ellis' value will significantly decline in the next 12 months, so he could probably collect his $11MM option, hit the market in 2014, and see the same offers he'd get this summer. The news that he's likely to turn down the option would seem to indicate Ellis and agent Jeffrey Fried think he can get more than $11MM for next season, though that's just my speculation. If any team makes that kind of offer, it would probably be a club with trouble attracting marquee talent but intent on making a splash with its cap space — perhaps the Suns, Bobcats or Pistons.
Ellis could improve his stock with a few memorable moments against the Heat in the first round of the playoffs. No one expects the Bucks to win, but if his contributions help the Bucks steal a game or two, it could increase his chances of a raise. Either way, I still think a long-term deal with a starting salary of around $10MM is his best bet, especially if he aspires to play for a contending team anytime soon.
Odds & Ends: Heat, Allen, Bucks, Muhammad
Here's this afternoon's look around the Association..
- As it stands now, Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel sees the Heat using the amnesty clause on Mike Miller. While the vet is a great locker room influence, it doesn't make sense for Miami to carry his contract. There's also the possibility that Miami finds a trade for Miller, but that could prove difficult.
- The Bucks never made Ray Allen an offer to return when he was a free agent over the summer, writes Gery Woelfel of the Journal Times. “I considered Memphis and Minnesota. That’s the plate I was looking at. Those were the teams that were offering me to go play for them," the guard said.
- More from Woelfel, who writes that two NBA executives who once considered UCLA swingman Shabazz Muhammad a legitimate top-three draft pick now have him outside their top ten. It's possible that the news that the Bruins star is actually 20 as opposed to 19 has hurt his stock.
- Dwight Howard and Lakers coach Mike D'Antoni are divided on the club's offensive philosophy, writes Dave McMenamin of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
Monta Ellis Likely To Opt Out
Bucks guard Monta Ellis holds a lucrative player option on his deal for 2013/14, but the prevailing sentiment amongst his acquaintances is that he'll turn it down and hit the open market instead, writes Gery Woelfel of the Journal Times. Ellis' option is worth $11MM, but friends say that he has indicated that he wants to go elsewhere.
For his part, Ellis has publicly declined to discuss his future plans. While the guard may feel that he has better offers waiting for him this summer, several GMs told Woelfel that they wouldn't pay him more than he is already receiving ($11MM). However, as one GM noted, it only takes one club enamored with the guard's speed to give him a deal in excess of $11MM.
It also helps Ellis' case that there are many teams with cap space to burn this offseason. Seven teams in the Western Conference and six teams in the Eastern Conference figure to have deep pockets, which should amp up the bidding for Ellis. The guard could also improve his stock with a strong first-round performance against Dwyane Wade and the Heat, even if the Bucks are defeated in a short series.