If you're looking to make the point that winning the offseason doesn't guarantee success the following season, it would be hard to find a better case study than the 2024/25 Sixers.
Armed with more cap room than any other NBA team entering the summer of 2024, the 76ers made a huge splash on the free agent market by luring Paul George away from the Clippers with a four-year, maximum-salary offer. They signed Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to long-term contracts and used their remaining cap space to complement their new big three with solid role players like Caleb Martin and Andre Drummond.
Given Embiid's and George's lengthy injury histories, there was certainly skepticism in some corners about the 76ers' ability to immediately contend for a championship, but there was also widespread enthusiasm about the team's raised ceiling following a 47-win showing and a first-round playoff exit in 2023/24. Oddsmakers set Philadelphia's over/under at 52.5 wins in the fall of 2024.
You know what happened next. Embiid's season debut was delayed and he was ultimately limited to just 19 up-and-down appearances due to lingering issues in the knee he had surgically repaired in February 2024. George (41 games) and Maxey (52 games) also dealt with injuries that limited their effectiveness, as did several other key rotation players, including Jared McCain, whose potential Rookie of the Year campaign was cut short after just 23 games due to knee surgery.
The Sixers lost 12 of 14 games to open the season, and while they followed that first month up with a 13-8 run that got them back into the play-in mix, they couldn't sustain that momentum without their superstar center available. Philadelphia ultimately went 5-31 from January 31 onward, giving up on the idea of earning a play-in spot and instead doing all it could to avoid losing its top-six protected first-round pick to the Thunder.
The silver lining of the 76ers' season is that they did hang onto that first-rounder, which moved up to No. 3 on draft lottery night. That pick provides some reason for optimism, as does the young backcourt of Maxey and McCain, who both should be healthy by the fall.
Still, in order to make the playoffs and have a shot at a deep postseason run, the Sixers needs Embiid and George to be healthy. If those two stars are back on the court and back in form next season, the club should be well positioned for a bounce-back year. If not, those long-term contracts for Embiid (four years, $248MM) and George (three years, $162MM) will become major problems.
The Sixers' Offseason Plan
As disastrous as the 2024/25 season was for Philadelphia, tearing down the roster and starting over almost certainly isn't a path that president of basketball operations Daryl Morey and his front office will seriously consider or pursue this summer. Due to their massive contracts and the uncertainty surrounding their health, Embiid and George have never had less trade value, so the Sixers would have to take 25 cents on the dollar to move the duo at this point. Nothing in Morey's transaction history suggests he'd do that.
Free agents
95% chance will lose one of them
Yabusele (UFA)
Grimes (RFA)
52% chance will lose both