Heat Notes: Adebayo, Lowry, Vincent, Strus, Lillard
The Heat didn’t need much offense from Bam Adebayo to get past the Bulls in Friday’s play-in game, but that’s likely to change in their series against the Bucks, writes Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald. Miami eliminated Chicago even though Adebayo shot just 1-for-9 from the field and finished with eight points and four turnovers. He made up for it with 17 rebounds and a stellar defensive performance that included a late blocked shot to wrap up the victory.
“The reason I love Bam is even if you don’t make shots, you can affect the game in a lot of ways,” Jimmy Butler said. “That’s the definition of a star player, a superstar player. When you lock in on the defensive end, that’s the part that gets everybody excited.”
Jackson notes that Adebayo has seen a reduced role in the Heat’s offense over the past two months. After averaging 21.6 points per game before the All-Star break, he has fallen to 16.6 PPG since then. Miami is 11-5 this season when Adebayo scores at least 25 points, but that hasn’t happened since March 15.
“I’ve got to shoot my shots, pick my spot and live with the results,” he said. “I feel I had a big impact on that game (Friday) even though my shots weren’t falling.”
There’s more on the Heat:
- Kyle Lowry left Friday’s game early in the fourth quarter after aggravating his sore left knee, but he doesn’t believe it’s a long-term concern, Jackson adds. “I’m good. Just a little tweak, little pressure on it,” Lowry said. “But I’m OK. All good. I’m ready to go on Sunday. If coach would have asked me to go back in the game, I would have gone back in the game.” Lowry is listed as questionable for Sunday’s series opener in Milwaukee, as is Gabe Vincent, who’s dealing with a right hip pointer.
- Max Strus scored 31 points in 36 minutes against the Bulls, but it might be hard to keep him on the court against a bigger Bucks team, notes Ira Winderman of The Sun Sentinel. Winderman points out that the Heat were able to use a small-ball lineup Friday because Chicago didn’t start a traditional power forward, but it will be difficult for the 6’5″ Strus to defend either Giannis Antetokounmpo or Brook Lopez. The matchup may require more minutes from Caleb Martin and Kevin Love.
- The Heat are ready to pursue another star player this summer, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN (video link), who considers them a team to watch if Damian Lillard asks the Trail Blazers for a trade.
Poll: Western Conference’s First Round Playoff Series
After calling for your predictions for the four first round series in the Eastern Conference earlier in the day, we’re pivoting to the West this afternoon.
Here are the four first round series in the Western Conference:
Denver Nuggets (1) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (8)
Unlike in the East, where there are a handful of overwhelming favorites at the top of the conference, the Western Conference field appears more wide open as the playoffs begin. The Nuggets are heavily favored in this series, but their betting line (-550, per BetOnline.ag) isn’t anywhere close to the -1200 and -1300 lines we were seeing in the East.
As good as the Nuggets were this season, they weren’t playing their best basketball down the stretch, having lost five of their last seven games and 10 of their last 17 entering the postseason. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, had a disappointing year, but have a lot of high-end talent on their roster, including three-time All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns, three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, and ascendant All-Star Anthony Edwards.
A Timberwolves team playing to its full potential could give Denver trouble, but we haven’t seen that often this season. It would be a major upset if Tim Connelly‘s new team can get past his old one.
Which team will win the series?
-
Denver Nuggets in 4-5 games 52% (456)
-
Denver Nuggets in 6-7 games 34% (295)
-
Minnesota Timberwolves in 6-7 games 12% (109)
-
Minnesota Timberwolves in 4-5 games 2% (18)
Total votes: 878
Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (7)
After incorporating their trade-deadline acquisitions on February 11, the Lakers went 18-8 to close the regular season, which would translate to a 57-win pace over 82 games.
Throw in the fact that LeBron James and Anthony Davis are relatively healthy and two key members of the Grizzlies‘ frontcourt (Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke) aren’t, and it’s easy to understand why Memphis is only a slight favorite (-142) over Los Angeles (+122) in this series.
Still, the Grizzlies had the best net rating (+4.0) in the West this season and history is working in their favor — as John Hollinger of The Athletic writes, the NBA’s No. 7 and No. 8 playoff seeds have lost 95 of 100 first round series in the last 25 years. Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and company won’t be intimidated by the Lakers’ star power.
Which team will win the series?
-
Memphis Grizzlies in 6-7 games 41% (357)
-
Los Angeles Lakers in 6-7 games 40% (354)
-
Memphis Grizzlies in 4-5 games 14% (121)
-
Los Angeles Lakers in 4-5 games 5% (47)
Total votes: 879
Sacramento Kings (3) vs. Golden State Warriors (6)
The Kings‘ reward for snapping a 16-season playoff drought is a first-round matchup against the defending champions, who have won titles in four of the last eight years.
The Warriors‘ impressive track record in the postseason has made them betting favorites (-265) in this series over Sacramento (+225). Golden State has had an up-and-down year, but has a huge experience edge in this matchup and seemed to be hitting its stride at the right time in the season’s final weeks. With Andrew Wiggins set to be available for Game 1, the roster is at full strength and will present a tough challenge for the higher-seeded Kings.
Still, the Kings have been exceeding expectations all season long, and their home crowd should be whipped into a frenzy for the first NBA playoff basketball in Sacramento since 2006. This has a chance to be a very fun series.
Which team will win the series?
-
Golden State Warriors in 6-7 games 44% (268)
-
Sacramento Kings in 6-7 games 37% (225)
-
Golden State Warriors in 4-5 games 13% (81)
-
Sacramento Kings in 4-5 games 5% (32)
Total votes: 606
Phoenix Suns (4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (5)
The key for both of these star-studded rosters is staying healthy. Suns forward Kevin Durant and guard Chris Paul have battled multiple injuries over the years, including this season, as have Clippers forwards Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Suns have the health advantage entering this series, with George considered unlikely to play vs. Phoenix as he recovers from a sprained knee.
Even if PG13 can return to action before the series ends, the Clippers will be in tough against a Phoenix team that has looked incredibly dangerous with Durant on the court. The former MVP has only played in eight games for the Suns since being acquired at the trade deadline, but they’ve won all eight, outscoring opponents by a total of 88 points in those contests.
The Suns are considered strong betting favorites, with a -465 line at BetOnline.ag.
Which team will win the series?
-
Phoenix Suns in 6-7 games 46% (363)
-
Phoenix Suns in 4-5 games 35% (273)
-
Los Angeles Clippers in 6-7 games 18% (143)
-
Los Angeles Clippers in 4-5 games 1% (11)
Total votes: 790
Rockets Notes: K. Young, Griffin, Culture, Free Agency
The Rockets‘ interview with Suns assistant Kevin Young for their head coaching position took place on Friday, according to Kelly Iko of The Athletic (Twitter link). Houston followed up that meeting by interviewing Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin on Saturday, Iko adds (via Twitter).
Young and Griffin are at least the third and fourth candidates known to have interviewed for the Rockets’ coaching vacancy. Frank Vogel and Ime Udoka also reportedly met with the team.
Kenny Atkinson, James Borrego, and Sam Cassell have been mentioned as candidates Houston plans to talk to, though there’s no indication those meetings have happened yet.
Here’s more on the Rockets:
- Speaking this week to the media, including Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (subscription required), general manager Rafael Stone strongly pushed back against criticism of the rebuilding Rockets’ culture. “We have not managed to turn that culture into wins at this point in time,” Stone said. “But culture — I would put our team up there with anybody in the NBA. We work really hard. People are very supportive of each other. They get along very well. They spent a ton of time together off the court. A lot of that is a function of their youth, which is always one of the reasons why we’ve struggled to win. It’s all interrelated. I’m willing to fight with anyone who will say that our culture, on this team, this year was challenged.”
- Stone went on to speculate that there are people in the media who have a residual distaste for how Houston conducted business under Daryl Morey, including the unconventional way the front office built the roster and the organization’s deference to stars like James Harden. “I was part of these teams, so I don’t want to walk away from it,” said Stone, who was an assistant GM under Morey. “… Those teams were very successful. They did things in their own way. I think some people didn’t like the way they did them. One of the things that happened is complaints about the way those people did things are being conflated with us now, even though the only commonality is the Houston Rockets. The players, coaches, front office has changed hugely. That’s my perception.”
- Iko teamed up with John Hollinger of The Athletic to take a closer look at the offseason decisions facing the Rockets. As The Athletic’s duo notes, Houston owes its top-four protected 2024 first-round pick to Oklahoma City, so the team may be motivated to use its cap room (approximately $60MM) to add win-now veteran help. In addition to Harden, Hollinger names Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent, Cameron Johnson, and Grant Williams as some of the free agents the Rockets could look into.
Northwest Notes: Watson, NAW, Saric, Blazers
Nuggets rookie Peyton Watson didn’t play more than 10 minutes in an NBA game until March 31, but he averaged 22.4 MPG in Denver’s last six contests and his teammates were impressed by what they saw, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post (subscriber link). More importantly, Watson quickly earned the confidence of head coach Michael Malone.
“If I have to use Peyton Watson in a playoff series, I will, if the situation calls upon it,” Malone said. “He’s shown me he can go out there against some really good players and teams and impact the game in a positive light.”
The 30th overall pick last June, Watson scored double-digit points in two of the Nuggets’ last six games and blocked three shots in two separate games. As Singer writes, the 20-year-old presumably won’t be part of Malone’s regular playoff rotation, but could be a fit in certain switchable, defensive-oriented lineups.
Here’s more from around the Northwest:
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker was something of an afterthought in February’s three-team Mike Conley/D’Angelo Russell/Russell Westbrook blockbuster, but the Timberwolves made his development a priority, writes Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. As Krawczynski notes, that work paid off in Friday’s play-in game, when Alexander-Walker filled up the box score (12 points, six assists, four rebounds, three steals, two blocks) and helped limit his cousin Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to a 5-of-19 night. Alexander-Walker will be eligible for restricted free agency this July.
- Asked on Saturday about his impending free agency, Thunder forward Dario Saric said he really enjoyed his time in Oklahoma City and would like to return, per Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman (Twitter links). Saric went on to use an unorthodox metaphor to praise the organization. “You know, sometimes you can feel it,” he said of the Thunder. “Same like laptops. Some laptops are better than other ones. You know what I mean? Sometimes they have the same controls … but some of them are better, and that’s what I would say.”
- This summer appears likely to be the Trail Blazers‘ last chance to make the right roster moves around Damian Lillard to steer the team toward contention, according to Bill Oram of The Oregonian. If that doesn’t happen, Oram writes, a breakup between Lillard and the Blazers could be around the corner.
And-Ones: Expansion, Luwawu-Cabarrot, NBL, Kemp
The idea of expanding the NBA beyond its current 30 teams is a popular one that the league is widely expected to consider more seriously within the next few years. However, according to Chris Mannix of SI.com, some top team executives around the NBA are worried about the extent to which the league’s talent pool could be diluted by adding more teams. That’s a concern shared by commissioner Adam Silver.
“The dilution point doesn’t get as much attention,” Silver said. “It always fascinates me that in a league of what most people would acknowledge are the 450 best players in the world or close to it, despite enormous amount of basketball being played on a global basis, that even once you take that pool—450 players—there are only so many true difference-makers who without one or possibly two, or maybe even three of those players, you don’t have a realistic chance of winning the championship. And so the more teams you add, the more diluted, potentially, the talent will be around the league.
“… On the other hand, this is a sport that is an Olympic sport. It’s truly played on every corner of the planet. And so I think over time … you have this enormous new pool of top-notch talent that’s constantly coming into the league,” Silver continued. “So do I think the league from a competitive standpoint could absorb two more teams? Absolutely. We’re not there yet. … But overall, my biggest concern is not an impact it would have on competitive balance.”
Here are more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot‘s contract with Olimpia Milano in Italy has ended, making the former NBA swingman a free agent once again, per Cesare Milanti of Eurohoops.net. Luwawu-Cabarrot has appeared in 328 regular season NBA games since 2016, including 52 with Atlanta in 2021/22. He was in camp with Phoenix last fall.
- A.J. Johnson, a potential 2024 NBA lottery pick, decommitted from Texas in order to sign with the Illawara Hawks of Australia’s National Basketball League, according to Adrian Wojnarowski and Jonathan Givony of ESPN. Johnson is the highest-profile U.S. prospect since LaMelo Ball to forgo college basketball in favor of the NBL’s Next Stars program, Wojnarowski and Givony note.
- Former Seattle SuperSonics star Shawn Kemp has been charged with first-degree assault related to a shooting incident in Tacoma, Washington in March. ESPN has the story.
- Under the NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Players Association will receive 50% of team fines, tweets ESPN’s Bobby Marks. The current CBA splits player fines between the league and union, but team fines – like the $750K penalty assessed to the Mavericks this week – go only to the NBA.
Poll: Eastern Conference’s First Round Playoff Series
With the play-in tournament complete and the playoff field set, the NBA’s postseason will begin in earnest on Saturday. Since three of Saturday’s four games are Eastern Conference matchups, we’re zeroing in on those first round series this morning before shifting our focus to the West later today.
Here are the four first round series in the East:
Milwaukee Bucks (1) vs. Miami Heat (8)
This series holds a little more intrigue than the typical No. 1 vs. No. 8 matchup. The Heat won the most games in the Eastern Conference in 2021/22 and nearly made it to the NBA Finals last spring. This year’s team isn’t much different from that one, even if its in-season results were a lot less impressive. A group led by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo certainly won’t roll over in the playoffs.
Still, the Bucks were one of the NBA’s most dominant teams in the regular season, winning a league-high 58 games. And despite some injury question marks, they’re the deeper, more talented team in this matchup. This series may not be a repeat of Milwaukee’s four-game sweep of Miami in round one of the 2021 playoffs en route to a Bucks championship, but there’s a reason why Giannis Antetokounmpo are massive betting favorites (-1200, per BetOnline.ag).
Which team will win the series?
-
Milwaukee Bucks in 4-5 games 67% (506)
-
Milwaukee Bucks in 6-7 games 26% (196)
-
Miami Heat in 6-7 games 6% (45)
-
Miami Heat in 4-5 games 1% (9)
Total votes: 756
Boston Celtics (2) vs. Atlanta Hawks (7)
The Celtics will enter their first round series as even bigger betting favorites (-1300) than the Bucks. Boston’s +6.7 net rating on the season was the NBA’s best mark by a comfortable margin, whereas Atlanta has spent much of the season looking like a league-average team, finishing the year at 41-41 (with a +0.1 net rating) before winning a play-in game over Miami.
The Celtics’ No. 2 overall defense should be capable of slowing down the Hawks‘ star backcourt of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray; it remains to be seen whether Atlanta will have any answer at the other end of the court for Boston’s star wings, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. A Hawks upset isn’t impossible, but it looks like a real long shot, barring injuries.
Which team will win the series?
-
Boston Celtics in 4-5 games 78% (563)
-
Boston Celtics in 6-7 games 17% (121)
-
Atlanta Hawks in 6-7 games 5% (36)
-
Atlanta Hawks in 4-5 games 0% (3)
Total votes: 723
Philadelphia 76ers (3) vs. Brooklyn Nets (6)
While the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are often significant favorites in NBA playoff series, it’s unusual for a No. 3 team to be as heavily favored as the Sixers are over the Nets (-1200). The odds make sense though — Philadelphia had the NBA’s third-best record, trailing only two Eastern powerhouses. And Brooklyn likely wouldn’t have finished as high as sixth in the East if not for the first-half contributions of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who are no longer on the roster.
The new-look Nets, led by Mikal Bridges, were competitive down the stretch, but they went just 13-15 after the trade deadline. The 76ers, meanwhile, followed up a 12-12 start to the season by winning 42 of their last 58 games, and they’ll be at full strength in the playoffs — stars Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey are all healthy after missing between 16 and 24 games apiece during the regular season.
Which team will win the series?
-
Philadelphia 76ers in 4-5 games 62% (431)
-
Philadelphia 76ers in 6-7 games 31% (211)
-
Brooklyn Nets in 6-7 games 6% (43)
-
Brooklyn Nets in 4-5 games 1% (6)
Total votes: 691
Cleveland Cavaliers (4) vs. New York Knicks (5)
Now we’re talking. The rest of the Eastern Conference series are viewed as pretty one-sided, but the Cavaliers and Knicks is something a little closer to a toss-up. Cleveland is a -190 betting favorite, per BetOnline.ag, while New York is at +165 to win the series.
On paper, there are plenty of reasons to back the Cavaliers. Their +5.6 net rating ranked No. 2 in the NBA, buoyed by a league-best 109.9 defensive rating. And Donovan Mitchell is the sort of battle-tested scorer a team wants on its roster in the postseason.
On the other hand, besides Mitchell, Cleveland’s top players lack postseason experience. Darius Garland and Evan Mobley will be appearing in their first playoff game on Saturday, and Jarrett Allen didn’t advance beyond the first round in two brief postseason appearances in Brooklyn. These Knicks are well coached and have the East’s best offense (120.4 rating) since the calendar flipped to 2023.
The status of Julius Randle‘s left ankle could be significant — it sounds like he’s aiming to return for Game 1 on Saturday, but he hasn’t played since spraining the ankle on March 29 and likely isn’t back to 100% yet.
Which team will win the series?
-
Cleveland Cavaliers in 6-7 games 58% (418)
-
New York Knicks in 6-7 games 31% (224)
-
Cleveland Cavaliers in 4-5 games 6% (46)
-
New York Knicks in 4-5 games 4% (29)
Total votes: 717
Sixers Notes: Embiid, Harden, Tucker, Rotation
Sixers center Joel Embiid, named on Friday as one of three finalists for the NBA’s 2022/23 Most Valuable Player award, says he’ll take it in stride if he falls just short of earning the honor for a third consecutive year. However, Embiid admits it would mean a lot to him to be named MVP, as he tells Marc J. Spears of Andscape.
“This year I’ve made a commitment to not put myself out there, talking about I’m the MVP, or saying I want to win,” Embiid said. “For the guys that keep saying, ‘It’s whatever, I don’t care about winning it, doesn’t matter.’ But it’s all bulls–t. You want to be the MVP. That means a lot being the MVP of the league. There are only certain guys that get the opportunity to have their name on it. It would be a great honor. But I’m the point now where I’m used to (the MVP talk). If it happens, it happens. If it doesn’t, great.”
The runner-up to Nikola Jokic in 2021 and 2022, Embiid appears to be in a good position to claim his first MVP award in 2023 after leading the NBA with 33.1 points per game and guiding the Sixers to a 54-28 record. Embiid is considered a better defender than Jokic and played about 260 minutes more than Giannis Antetokounmpo, which may help give him a leg up on his fellow finalists.
Here’s more on the Sixers:
- As he prepares to face his former team in the first round of the playoffs, James Harden reflected on the criticism he faced a year ago for forcing his way out of Brooklyn to Philadelphia. “There’s a lot of internal things that was going on, which was one of the reasons why I made my decision,” Harden said, per Brian Lewis of The New York Post. “And everybody talked down on me and gave me negative feedback or whatever you want to call it. But now fast forward today, nobody’s like, ‘OK, James was smart, James knew what he was doing.’ Which I don’t want credit, but it’s like, I’m happy where they are now. I mean, best of luck to those guys and (Nets owner) Joe Tsai and that organization. They turned what they had into something really good, so they’re in the playoffs and nothing but great, great talk about those guys and organization.” Harden, of course, was the first of three Nets stars to request a trade; Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving eventually followed suit.
- P.J. Tucker‘s 3.5 points and 3.0 field goal attempts per game in 2022/23 represented the lowest marks he has ever posted as an NBA regular. But Tucker’s teammates and opponents recognize the value of the Sixers’ major 2022 free agent addition, especially in the postseason, as Gina Mizell of The Philadelphia Inquirer writes in a subscriber-only story. “P.J. was just the aggressor, the starter that got us going,” Bam Adebayo said of his former Heat teammate. “I feel like that’s what defines P.J. … his energy toward, ‘I’m going to do everything right.’ I think you need a P.J. on your team.”
- Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice.com examines some of the most important rotation decisions the Sixers will have to make in the postseason, including how to handle the backup center minutes behind Embiid and whether to lock in Tucker and Tobias Harris as every-game closers alongside Embiid, Harden, and Tyrese Maxey.
Post-Play-In Update On Draft Order, Lottery Standings
As we explained on Sunday night following the conclusion of the NBA’s 2022/23 regular season, the results of the play-in tournament helped move the lottery standings and the 2023 draft order one step closer to being officially set.
Here’s what we know now…
Lottery teams
Despite some upsets on Tuesday and Wednesday, the results of the play-in tournament didn’t actually change the lottery standings we originally projected on Sunday. The teams that entered the play-in as the seventh and eighth seeds are the ones that made it through.
The Hawks and Heat claimed the East’s final two playoff spots and will face Boston and Milwaukee, respectively, in round one of the postseason. The Lakers and Timberwolves locked up the Nos. 7 and 8 seeds in the West, lining up first-round dates with Memphis and Denver, respectively.
As a result, the tentative lottery standings are as follows:
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 47.9 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| HOU* | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 27.8 | 20 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| SAS* | 14 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 12 | 14.8 | 26 | 7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| CHA | 12.5 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 25.7 | 16.7 | 2.2 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| POR | 10.5 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 26.7 | 8.7 | 0.6 | – | – | – | – | – |
| ORL | 9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | – | 8.6 | 29.8 | 20.6 | 3.7 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| WSH* | 6.8 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 | – | – | 19.7 | 35.6 | 12.9 | 1.4 | >0 | – | – | – |
| IND* | 6.7 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.8 | – | – | – | 32.9 | 31.1 | 6.6 | 0.4 | >0 | – | – |
| UTH | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 | – | – | – | – | 50.7 | 25.9 | 3 | 0.1 | >0 | – |
| DAL | 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 4 | – | – | – | – | – | 65.9 | 19 | 1.2 | >0 | >0 |
| OKC* | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 77.6 | 13.5 | 0.4 | >0 |
| CHI* | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 85.2 | 6.7 | 0.1 |
| TOR | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 92.9 | 3.3 |
| NOP | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 97.6 |
Note: The Mavericks’ pick will be sent to the Knicks if it’s outside the top 10; the Bulls’ pick will be sent to the Magic if it’s outside the top four.
A series of tiebreakers will still be required before the pre-lottery draft order is locked in, since three pairs of lottery teams finished the regular season with identical records.
The teams listed above in italics and marked with asterisks were tied, so the following spots in the chart could still be flipped, pending the results of random tiebreakers:
- Houston Rockets / San Antonio Spurs (22-60)
- Washington Wizards / Indiana Pacers (35-47)
- Oklahoma City Thunder / Chicago Bulls (40-42)
For instance, if the Spurs win their tiebreaker with the Rockets, they’ll be the team that can’t fall further than No. 6 in the lottery, while Houston could slide as far as No. 7.
Lottery teams that ended up with identical regular season records essentially have the same odds at a top-four pick as each other, though the club that wins the tiebreaker will get one extra ping-pong ball combination at No. 7 and No. 11.
Playoff teams
Based on the play-in results, the draft order in the middle of the first round will be as follows:
- Atlanta Hawks (41-41)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
- Note: Pick traded to Jazz.
- Los Angeles Lakers (43-39)
- Miami Heat / Los Angeles Clippers / Golden State Warriors (44-38)
- Note: A tiebreaker will be required to determine the order of the Nos. 18-20 picks.
- Note: Clippers’ pick traded to Rockets.
In addition to the tiebreaker required for the Heat, Clippers, and Warriors at No. 18, the following tiebreakers will be necessary for playoff teams:
- Brooklyn Nets / Phoenix Suns (45-37)
- Note: Suns’ pick traded to Nets.
- Cleveland Cavaliers / Memphis Grizzlies (51-31)
- Note: Cavaliers’ pick traded to Pacers.
No random tiebreakers will be required for the following clubs. They finished the regular season with identical records, but one made the playoffs and one didn’t, so the lottery team will pick higher in round one and the playoff team will get the higher pick in round two:
- New Orleans Pelicans / Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40)
- Toronto Raptors / Atlanta Hawks (41-41)
The six random tiebreakers for draft positioning will be conducted by the NBA on Monday, according to Khobi Price of The Orlando Sentinel. Once those are completed, we’ll publish a full pre-lottery order for both rounds of the 2023 draft.
Injury Notes: Wolves, Murray, Middleton, George
The Timberwolves will have both of their three-time All-Star big men active for Friday’s final play-in game against the Thunder, Minnesota announced (via Twitter). Rudy Gobert (back spasms) and Karl-Anthony Towns (right calf strain) were upgraded from questionable to available and will start, per the team.
Wolves guard Jaylen Nowell, who was previously questionable with left knee tendinopathy, will also be active. Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News was first to report (via Twitter) that Nowell would be ready to go.
In an interesting rotational change, the Wolves are inserting Nickeil Alexander-Walker into the starting lineup for the first time to defend his cousin, Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
“They’re cousins, so there should be familiarity there but we like Nickeil’s ability to go get him full court and his size on him,” head coach Chris Finch said before the game (Twitter link via Alan Horton of Wolves Radio).
Here are some more injury notes from around the NBA:
- Nuggets guard Jamal Murray continues to be hampered by a nagging right thumb sprain on his shooting hand, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post (subscriber link). “I’m still thinking about it,” Murray said. “I’m full participating (in practice). It’s just sore. Every catch, every shot, I’m always fiddling with it trying to make it feel better, but it’ll be OK.” Denver’s second-leading scorer has been dealing with the injury for a few weeks, Singer adds, but he’s otherwise healthy and feeling ready for the playoffs.
- Khris Middleton, a three-time All-Star for the Bucks, was a full practice participant on Thursday, according to an Associated Press report (link via ESPN). Middleton experienced discomfort in his right knee on April 5 against Chicago, causing him to leave the game early. Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton were partial practice participants, per The AP — both players are dealing with right ankle sprains, causing them to miss the final few games of the regular season (four for Allen, three for Connaughton). The Bucks will face the Heat in their first-round playoff series after Miami defeated Chicago and advanced as the No. 8 seed in the East.
- Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters, including Law Murray of The Athletic, that star wing Paul George, who has been out since March 21 after suffering a right knee sprain, is making progress in his recovery. However, the team won’t rush him back for its first-round series against Phoenix, with Lue saying the Clippers need George to be “close to 100 percent” in order to prevent a possible re-injury. While there’s no official timeline for George’s return, a source tells Murray the veteran forward is targeting a potential second-round return, assuming the Clippers advance (Twitter link).
Draft Updates: Bailey, Tubelis, Sanogo, Phelps, Johnson
UCLA guard Amari Bailey is declaring for the 2023 NBA draft and will forgo his remaining college eligibility, his mother, Johanna Leia, tells Jonathan Givony of ESPN (Twitter link).
As a freshman for UCLA in 2022/23, Bailey averaged 11.2 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 2.2 APG and 1.1 SPG on .495/.389/.698 shooting in 30 games (26.9 MPG). He helped lead the Bruins to a 31-6 record and a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where they ultimately lost in the Sweet 16 to Gonzaga.
In his analysis at ESPN, Givony writes that Bailey was a projected first-round pick entering the season who had a rough start to his freshman campaign, particularly pointing to his questionable jump shot and uneven decision-making.
However, according to Givony, Bailey had a strong finish to the season and could see his stock rise if he performs well in pre-draft workouts. He is currently No. 42 on ESPN’s big board.
Here are some more early entrants for the 2023 draft:
- Arizona junior Azuolas Tubelis (No. 68 on ESPN’s board) is entering the draft, he tells Givony, who adds that the Lithuanian forward is expected to forgo his eligibility and turn pro. Tubelis had an impressive junior season for the Wildcats, averaging 19.8 PPG, 9.1 SPG, 2.0 APG and 1.1 SPG while shooting 57% from the field and 76.4% from the line in 35 games (30.1 MPG). According to Givony, Tubelis plans to play at the NBA draft combine next month in an effort to boost his stock.
- UConn big man Adama Sanogo, who was named Most Outstanding Player of the NCAA Tournament after leading the Huskies to the championship, plans to enter the draft, sources tell Adam Zagoria of ZagsBlog.com (Twitter link). It’s unclear if Sanogo, a junior, will be testing the draft waters or keep his name in and go pro. He averaged 17.2 PPG and 7.7 RPG on .606/.365/.766 shooting in 39 games (26.5 MPG) this season. Sanogo is ranked No. 87 on ESPN’s board, so he’s considered a long shot to get drafted.
- SMU guard Zhuric Phelps is entering the draft while maintaining his college eligibility, as is San Diego State forward Keshad Johnson, who is also entering the transfer portal, the two players announced on social media (Twitter links). Phelps averaged 17.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.2 APG and 2.3 SPG on .394/.309/.609 shooting in 30 games (31.4 MPG) as a sophomore for the Mustangs. Johnson, a senior who has one year of eligibility left due to COVID-19, averaged 7.7 PPG and 5.0 RPG on .532/.262/.648 shooting in 39 games (22.2 MPG) for the Aztecs, who made it to the title game for the first time before losing to UConn. Neither player is ranked on ESPN’s board.