Paul Millsap Unlikely To Sign Extension With Jazz
SUNDAY, 9:33am: Joel Brigham of HoopsWorld suggests the Jazz may be better off keeping Millsap for the long term and trading Favors instead. The move would allow the Jazz to retain an established player to help the continued development of young talent like Gordon Hayward and Kanter.
SATURDAY, 3:34pm: The Jazz and power forward Paul Millsap engaged in initial talks this week about an extension, and the Jazz made the maximum allowable offer of three additional years and $25MM, according to Brian T. Smith of The Salt Lake Tribune. While talks were positive and there's mutual interest in keeping Millsap in Utah, Smith reports, he's likely to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
Millsap will make $8,603,633 this year in the final season of a four-year, $32MM contract he originally signed in 2009 as an offer sheet from the Blazers that the Jazz matched. Under the new CBA, veterans can only receive contract extensions for four seasons, which includes the final season of their current deal. Raises are limited to 7.5% each season. By my calculations, he's eligible for an extension closer to $30MM, but his 2012/13 salary may be lower than what's been widely assumed. Either way, it's not surprising Millsap is looking ahead to free agency next summer, when he can sign for significantly more. Smith identifies Gerald Wallace, Andrei Kirilenko, Nicolas Batum and Ryan Anderson as forwards with comparable skill. All of them signed deals for average annual salaries of at least $9MM this summer.
Millsap averaged 16.6 points and a career-high 8.8 rebounds this past season. He took 13.5 shots a game, but his shooting percentage of 49.5% was below 50% for the first time in his six seasons in the NBA. His 21.8 PER was a career best, however, and Bill Ingram of HoopsWorld surmises he'll be one of the most sought-after free agents next summer, when he'll be 28 years old (Sulia link). The presence of Al Jefferson, along with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, both recent third overall picks, could make Millsap expendable in Utah. The team has experimented with Millsap at small forward at times the last two seasons to fit their wealth of frontcourt talent on the floor.
Smith says the Jazz could explore trading Millsap, and adds that Millsap will have to compete in training camp for the starting power forward position (Twitter links).
Heat, Spurs Discussing Andray Blatche
SUNDAY, 8:35am: Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel says the Heat are doing background work on Blatche, even though Miami may not be a good fit for the former Wizards player. While the move would give the Heat an inexpensive yet potentially effective piece off the bench, Blatche may have a greater opportunity to earn playing time on a different roster.
SATURDAY, 6:20pm: ESPN's Marc Stein reports (via Twitter) that the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs are two of the teams that have expressed interest in signing Andray Blatche. Blatche was waived by the Washington Wizards on July 17 using the amnesty clause. No team placed a bid on the remaining three years and approximately $23.4MM on his contract, thus making him an unrestricted free agent.
Blatche, 25, averaged 8.5 PPG and 5.8 RPG for the Wizards during the 2011/12 season. He appeared in just 26 games during the season, in which he battled various injuries.
Odds & Ends: Howard, Williams, Songaila
The latest news and notes from around the NBA on Saturday night:
- George Diaz of the Orlando Sentinel writes that the Magic need to move on from Dwight Howard as soon as possible.
- John Manasso of Fox Sports South has quotes from the Hawks' press conference introducing Lou Williams and Devin Harris, and an analysis of the guards' ability to fit together.
- ESPN's Marc Stein tweets that, after a strong performance against the United States, Lithuania's Darius Songaila says he intends to play in the NBA again.
Poll: Who Will Win The Central Division?
Earlier today, HoopsWorld's Mark Nugent wondered in a column whether the Bulls are still title contenders with the likely absence of Derrick Rose for most of the season and several changes to their roster.
With this in mind, which team do you think will win the Central Division in 2012/13? Will it be the Bulls, or will the Cavs, Bucks, Pacers, or Pistons overtake them?
Which Team Will Win The Central Division In 2012/13?
-
Indiana Pacers 43% (750)
-
Chicago Bulls 32% (558)
-
Milwaukee Bucks 13% (221)
-
Cleveland Cavaliers 9% (151)
-
Detroit Pistons 3% (49)
Total votes: 1,729
Nugent On Bulls’ Future
Mark Nugent of HoopsWorld has a new column discussing the Chicago Bulls' playoff hopes for the 2012/13 season, as they cope with the loss of Derrick Rose to a torn ACL:
- Nugent believes the losses of Omer Asik, Kyle Korver, C.J. Watson, and Ronnie Brewer will weaken Chicago's bench, as Taj Gibson will be left as the sole remaining member of the unit that many believed was the best bench in the NBA last season.
- Nugent considers Marco Belinelli to be a downgrade from Korver as the team's designated three-point specialist.
- While Kirk Hinrich has proven a capable veteran presence, Nugent points out that injuries have been a concern with the Bulls' newly signed point guard.
- Regardless, Nugent expects the Bulls to make the playoffs this season, even if much of their title contention hope rests with Rose's recovery timetable.
Robin Lopez Undergoes Knee Surgery
Newly acquired Hornets center Robin Lopez has undergone surgery on his left knee to repair a meniscus tear, the team announced Saturday. He is expected to be ready for training camp.
Lopez was signed and traded last week from the Suns to the Hornets as part of a three-team deal that also involved the Timberwolves. As part of the trade, he reportedly signed a three-year deal worth $15.3MM.
Daniel Orton Signs With Thunder
The Thunder have announced the signing of center Daniel Orton, reports Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman. The deal is non-guaranteed, and he's not assured of a spot on the opening night roster, meaning the move is little more than an invitation to training camp, as Mayberry writes. The contract is probably for the minimum salary. If Orton, the 29th overall pick by the Magic in 2010, doesn't make the team, he'll likely be assigned to the Tulsa 66ers, the Thunder's D-League affiliate.
Orton missed his entire rookie season after undergoing arthoscopic surgery on his left knee, and appeared in just 16 regular season games last year, averaging 2.8 points and 2.4 rebounds in 11.7 minutes of play. The Magic didn't pick up his option for a third season on his rookie deal, making him an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Thunder already have the maximum 15 players on the roster, so Orton faces an uphill climb if he is to start the season in Oklahoma City. If he were to make it, the likely casualty would be Hollis Thompson, the only player on the roster whose contract isn't fully guaranteed for 2012/13.
The Thunder have kept an eye on the 6'10" Oklahoma City native, as we heard more than a month ago that he was possible target for the team.
The Going Rate For 10+ RPG Players
Last night we took a look at what players who averaged 20 or more points per game last season are making, so let's shift the focus to rebounding, another sought-after skill. While rebounding doesn't have quite the same cachet as scoring, you can't score if you don't have the ball, and rebounding is one of the primary ways to take and keep possession. Only eight players grabbed 10 or more rebounds per game last season, and though they possess an elite skill, only three of them made more than $8MM. That changes thanks to Kevin Love's four-year maximum-salary extension, which kicks in this year, and Kris Humphries' new contract, but the top rebounders are still paid less than their scoring counterparts. In 2012/13, returning 20+ PPG scorers will make an average of $15,952,250, while players coming off 10+ RPG seasons will pull in an average of $12,339,276.
Here's the list, with the players, teams, rebounds per game from 2011/12, their salaries for last year and this year. The last two columns tell you what they made and what they will make for each rebound on their averages.
Some observations:
- Kevin Love and Blake Griffin were the only players to average at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game last season, and both did so on their rookie deals.
- DeMarcus Cousins, for all his supposed petulance and immaturity, is a tremendous on-court value to the Kings. After this coming season, he'll have one more year on his rookie deal, at $4,916,974 in 2013/14, so Sacramento has a bargain for a while.
- Pau Gasol, at age 32, is the only player on the list older than 30. Only two of the 12 20+ PPG scorers are older than 30, suggesting that even though many of today's players are experiencing extended primes, elite performance is still reserved for the young.
Storytellers Contracts was used in the creation of this post.
Extension Candidate: Serge Ibaka
The Thunder have made rapid progress toward an NBA championship in recent years, and are held up as a model franchise around the league. Yet the cloud hanging over the team after its trip to the NBA Finals this past June concerns the futures of James Harden and Serge Ibaka, two young cornerstones in line for significant raises soon. As Luke Adams pointed out when he looked at the prospect of an extension for Harden, the Thunder would be committing more than $60MM for four players if they gave maximum extensions to both Harden and Ibaka, since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are also signed to maximum deals. The volume of chatter about Harden seems to indicate GM Rob Hennigan and company are giving him priority, but clearly they'd like to find a way to keep them both.
The contribution Ibaka makes to the team isn't as readily apparent in box scores as what Harden does, though Ibaka was far and away the league leader in blocks per game last year. His average of 3.7 BPG was 68% better than the 2.2 submitted by JaVale McGee, the league's second-best shot blocker in 2011/12. No active player has ever blocked more shots per game in a season than Ibaka did last year. All those rejections led to a first-team All-Defensive selection, and helped him to the league's 11th best defensive rating, according to Basketball-Reference. Perhaps most remarkable about his blocks is that he got them in just 27.2 minutes a game, much less court time than what most key contributors see. Even though Harden comes off the bench, he averaged 31.4 MPG, significantly more than Ibaka, who starts.
Ibaka might be pressed into longer minutes if the team unloads Kendrick Perkins and the $17.63MM he's owed between 2013/14 and 2014/15. Doing so would make it easier for the Thunder to squeeze in both Harden and Ibaka, though it's worth asking why the Thunder would be so anxious to get rid of someone who plays a role similar to Ibaka's. Both are Perkins and Ibaka are defensively oriented, offensively challenged post players. Perkins is five years older and doesn't possess nearly the athleticism of Ibaka, but he's sturdier and able to protect the basket, as evidenced by his 2.0 blocks per game for the Celtics in 2008/09. Factor in the presence of Nick Collison, who's signed to a team-friendly contract through 2015 and is another big man who specializes in the game's subtleties, and it seems the Thunder have an inside player to spare.
Ibaka is likely to receive a maximum offer sheet as a restricted free agent next summer if the Thunder don't extend him by the October 31st deadline, if for no other reason than his potential. Ibaka arrived in the NBA with underdeveloped skills but has quickly picked up the nuances of the game during his three-year career, his PER rising from 15.2 as a rookie, to 17.7 in 2010/11, and to 19.0 last season. At 22, he still has the capacity for marked improvement. Just how much farther he can go is a mystery, and last season there was even evidence of regression. Ibaka's scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage and free throw percentage were all down last season, and his turnovers were up.
The Thunder, who've nurtured and monitored his development every day for the last three years, probably have as much of an idea about what he can do as anyone. There's motivation for the team to try to save a few million dollars with an extension this summer, since Ibaka might want to take the guaranteed money on the table and hedge against injury, poor play and other uncertainty. Yet if the Thunder have any inkling that Ibaka's growth as a player is about to level off, they might want to let him play out the season and take their chances with him as a free agent. If they can extend Harden for less than the maximum this summer, they'd already have a little money saved, and if Ibaka has an outstanding 2012/13, they'll have time to decide what to do with Perkins and make other moves to clear room in preparation to re-sign Ibaka for the max. If Ibaka falters or levels off, their patience would go down as yet another shrewd move by one of the league's most well-regarded front offices.
Poll: Which FA Signee Is The Most Underpaid?
We recently asked you, the reader, which free agent signee is the most overpaid player of the summer—a list from which there are plenty of worthy options. Now we’re flipping the question around, asking who may have signed for less than what was expected.
Which Free Agent Signee Is The Most Underpaid
-
J.R. Smith (two-years, $5.739MM) 41% (621)
-
Carl Landry (two-years, $8MM) 17% (260)
-
Louis Williams (three-years, $15.675MM) 16% (241)
-
Jordan Hill (two-years, $7MM) 10% (155)
-
Other 8% (115)
-
Robin Lopez (three-years, $15.3MM) 6% (89)
-
Lavoy Allen (two-years, $6MM) 3% (45)
Total votes: 1,526