Examining The Grizzlies’ Cap Situation
2013's most popular subject of trade rumors to date has arguably been Grizzlies forward Rudy Gay. Since Grantland's Zach Lowe reported on January 4th that Memphis had made Gay available, the veteran forward has seemingly been linked with half the teams in the league, including the Suns, Raptors, Kings, and Wizards, among others.
As many others have written over the last couple weeks, the Grizzlies aren't exploring the market for Gay because they're dissatisfied with his play on the court. The 26-year-old is a crucial piece of a team that is on track to finish in the top four in a tough Western Conference. Rather, it's the Grizzlies' cap situation, and Gay's pricey long-term salary, that makes him a potential trade candidate.
Gay is earning about $16.5MM in 2012/13 and is in line for modest raises over the next couple seasons — he'll make $17.89MM in 2013/14 and has a player option worth $19.32MM in 2014/15. It's a lot of money for a player averaging 17.8 PPG and shooting a career-low 41.4% from the floor, and it's one of a handful of big deals that contributes to a total Grizzlies payroll exceeding $74MM this season.
With Robert Pera's new ownership group in place in Memphis, it's unclear exactly how comfortable the team is with being above the tax line ($70.31MM). At less than $4MM above the tax this year, the extra charges applied to the Grizzlies wouldn't be exorbitant, but being in the tax could become more problematic beginning next season. If the team doesn't move any of its current players, it could be on the hook for more than $73MM in 2013/14 and $65MM+ in 2014/15, without even having filled out its roster.
The repeater tax, which penalizes repeat taxpayers by exponentially increasing the tax on every dollar spent above the threshold, is on the horizon, but it shouldn't worry the Grizzlies. To qualify as a repeat taxpayer, teams must be over the tax line for four of five seasons, a line Memphis isn't in danger of crossing — even if the club were to remain in the tax through '14/15, the only money currently on the books for 2015/16 is Mike Conley's $9.59MM salary and Tony Wroten's $2.18MM team option, which should make staying under the tax threshold fairly easy. Still, tax penalties in general increase substantially next season, and the Grizzlies aren't the Lakers, Knicks, or Nets, all big-market teams that are comfortable with paying that premium.
If the Grizzlies hope to sneak below the tax threshold this season, Gay represents their best chance to do that, since he appears to be the most expendable of the club's three most expensive players (Gay, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol). It's not their only solution, but the alternate options are tricky.
Marreese Speights is the Grizzlies' only non-core piece earning $4MM+ this season, and has seen the team reduce his playing time this year. But the Grizzlies would be hard-pressed to find a taker for Speights without taking any salary back themselves. Other players could also be packaged in deals to get Memphis below the tax line, but the team is already carrying the minimum 13 players, so simply dumping salaries isn't as easy as it may seem.
If the Grizzlies don't find a deal they like for Gay or Speights, I expect the new owners to bite the bullet and pay the few extra million in taxes that the current roster will cost. But with more punitive penalties on the way for 2013/14, we should probably plan on seeing the Grizz aggressively explore ways to trim the payroll over the summer.
Odds & Ends: Mavericks, Suns, Draft
The Western Conference's current seventh and eighth seeds face tough matchups tonight, as the seventh-place Rockets host the Clippers, while the eighth-place Trail Blazers play the Nuggets in Denver. Losses for one or both clubs could give the Lakers, who host the Bucks, a chance to pick up a game in the standings, as they attempt to claw their way back into the playoff picture. While we look forward to tonight's games, let's check out a few links from around the league:
- Dirk Nowitzki is glad to hear that the "Bank of [Mark] Cuban" will be open as the trade deadline approaches, as Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com writes.
- Following up on Cuban's comments, Derek Page of HoopsWorld wonders if Rudy Gay could be a fit for the Mavericks, and examines some of the Mavs' trade candidates.
- In a mailbag, Ian Thomsen of SI.com explores which NBA coach might be the next on the hot seat. Although Thomsen eventually lands on the Suns' Alvin Gentry, he argues that Gentry is not the problem in Phoenix.
- Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic looks at the potential consolation prize for the Suns' disappointing season, outlining which players could interest the club at the top of the 2013 draft. As our tentative draft order shows, Phoenix is currently in line to have a top-five pick.
- Replying to a Twitter question about whether Kentucky's Alex Poythress might remain a Wildcast past this season, Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress says Poythress is "100% gone." ESPN.com's Chad Ford projects Poythress as a top-10 pick in June, though ESPN.com's Jay Bilas (Insider link) wrote yesterday that the young forward hasn't lived up to the hype so far.
Tentative 2013 NBA Draft Order
We're not quite at the halfway mark of the 2012/13 season yet, but it's already fairly safe to assume that a handful of teams won't be making playoff runs this season. For the sake of those teams' fans, and the draft-crazy Hoops Rumors readers who are eyeing June 2013, we've brought back a feature we introduced last season: Our tentative NBA draft order.
The list is based on this year's "reverse standings" and will be updated every morning for the rest of the season. Draft pick trades have been included via footnotes, and teams who are tied in the standings are marked with asterisks (tiebreakers are eventually determined via coin flip). A lottery team's odds to land the first overall pick are also included in the chart.
Besides the obvious fluctuations that are still to come in the standings, May's draft lottery also figures to shake things up a little at the top of the draft, but our tentative draft order represents how things will look next June 27th if everything holds to form. You can check out the up-to-date list anytime using the link under Hoops Rumors Features on the right sidebar.
Kyler’s Latest: Kings, Gasol, Magic, Bucks, Jazz
Steve Kyler's latest piece for HoopsWorld is packed full of updates on players who could be on the move before this season's trade deadline. Kyler covers plenty of ground in his column, so let's dive right in and round up the highlights….
- The Kings' uncertain ownership situation may result in a quiet trade deadline in Sacramento. While the situation could change between now and February 21st, Kyler says that for now the team appears "frozen in terms of making deals."
- Kyler suggests it's possible the Grizzlies will explore ways of getting below the luxury tax line that don't involve trading a big contract like Rudy Gay's.
- The Lakers aren't engaged in any trade talks involving Pau Gasol, and may not seriously explore a Gasol deal unless they fall out of the playoff hunt by the deadline.
- While J.J. Redick is drawing plenty of interest, rival teams have also called the Magic about Arron Afflalo and Jameer Nelson. If Orlando makes a move, the club would like to include Glen Davis or Hedo Turkoglu to shed some long-term salary.
- Pointing to Andrew Bogut as an example of an injured player who was dealt last season, Kyler warns not to rule out Anderson Varejao as a trade candidate.
- The Bucks are much more inclined to move players like Beno Udrih, Drew Gooden, and Samuel Dalembert than Monta Ellis or Brandon Jennings, but those secondary pieces aren't drawing much interest.
- Al Jefferson seems more likely than Paul Millsap to re-sign with the Jazz this summer, though clubs have been in touch with the Jazz about both players.
- The Spurs "will be dealing" DeJuan Blair before the deadline, according to Kyler.
- Derrick Williams appears unlikely to be moved by the Timberwolves while Kevin Love remains sidelined with his broken hand.
- Several teams have been calling the Suns to inquire on Marcin Gortat. The Rockets are one team believed to have interest.
Players Still Ineligible To Be Traded
Today is January 15th, which means that a number of players who had been ineligible to be traded until this point are now free to be moved by their respective teams. As Chuck Myron of Hoops Rumors outlined last month, Eric Gordon, Brook Lopez, Kris Humphries, Ersan Ilyasova, and Jeff Green are among the players who weren't eligible to be dealt until today.
However, in addition to rules that keeps players from being traded until December 15th or January 15th, the CBA also includes a stipulation that a team must have a player on its roster for three months before being able to trade him. That means guys who have signed contracts since October 15th are still ineligible to be dealt.
Here are the players who can't be traded quite yet, along with the dates they'll become trade-eligible:
Leandro Barbosa (Celtics): January 18th
Daniel Orton (Thunder): January 31st
Shaun Livingston (Cavaliers): February 15th
Because the trade deadline arrives on February 21st, players signed after November 21st won't become trade-eligible until after the season. Here are the guys who fit that description:
Jeff Adrien (Bobcats)
James Anderson (Rockets)
Patrick Beverley (Rockets)
Daequan Cook (Bulls)
Kevin Jones (Cavaliers)
Mickael Pietrus (Raptors)
Garrett Temple (Wizards)
In addition to recent signees, players who were claimed off amnesty waivers last July are also ineligible to be traded until July 2013. Some amnesty victims, like Andray Blatche, cleared waivers without being claimed and signed new contracts, so they're trade-eligible now, but the following players can't be moved this season:
Elton Brand (Mavericks)
Brendan Haywood (Bobcats)
Luis Scola (Suns)
Finally, players on 10-day contracts, such as Dominic McGuire, Maalik Wayns, and Josh Harrellson, also won't be trade-eligible at any point this season, even if they eventually receive rest-of-season contracts.
Western Rumors: Mavs, Barea, Gelabale, Kings
The Western Conference appears to be the stronger than the East once again this season, and the Heat's struggles on their Western road trip further drive home that point. Miami lost again tonight, to the Jazz, and face another stiff test Wednesday against the Warriors. We rounded up news from a couple Pacific Division teams earlier tonight, and we'll do the same for the rest of the Western Conference here.
- Mavericks owner Mark Cuban reiterated his willingness to take on salary to make a trade, and said he's constantly trying to come up with ideas for GM Donnie Nelson, observes Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News.
- Jose Barea said he thinks every day about what might have happened if the Mavs had made an effort to match the deal he signed with the Wolves in 2011. Tim McMahon of ESPNDallas.com has the details.
- At the bottom of his story on Barea, Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune notes the hangup in the Wolves' plan to sign Mickael Gelabale might be whether they can get him a work visa and administer a physical before Lazar Hayward's 10-day contract is up on Thursday.
- Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com ponders what would happen if the Maloofs decide to wait a while longer before selling or moving the Kings (Sulia link).
- John Reid of The Times-Picayune checks in with Austin Rivers, the 10th pick from last June who's fallen to the fringes of the rotation for the last-place Hornets.
- It's the first year of a hybrid partnership between the Blazers and the D-League Idaho Stampede, and Stampede owner Bill Ilett indicated that there's been some friction, in his comments to KTIK Radio 93.1 FM in Boise. Ben Golliver of Blazer's Edge provides a transcription.
Pacific Notes: Cousins, Nash, Clark, Kings
The Clippers and Warriors may be the only two Pacific Division squads in line for a playoff spot, but in terms of dramatics, they're getting upstaged by their closest neighbors. The Kings could be on their way out of town, while the way the Lakers have struggled this season is probably the most surprising development of the season. Here's more on the Pacific's most intriguing off-court teams.
- In his report on a halt to trade talks involving Rudy Gay, Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio also notes that the Kings never went further than exploratory discussions with other teams about DeMarcus Cousins, who'll likely remain in Sacramento while the future of the team's ownership is in limbo.
- Steve Nash, who says his team's goal is merely to make the playoffs, pointed to the Lakers' coaching change as a stumbling block this season in his comments on the "Max & Marcellus" show on ESPNLA 710 Radio (Twitter links via Dave McMenamin of ESPNLosAngeles.com). "It's been a 180 degree difference from Coach (Mike) Brown's offense to Coach (Mike) D'Antoni's. … Big reason we've struggled," Nash said.
- Earl Clark, a throw-in as part of the Dwight Howard trade, has suddenly become a contributor for the Lakers, and Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News chronicles his journey to NBA relevance.
- With an eye on the Kings' potential move, Tom Ziller of Sactown Royalty takes a look back at the NBA relocation committee's rejection of the Wolves' plan to move to New Orleans in 1994.
- Former Kings first-round pick Omri Casspi is among those who don't want to see the team leave Sacramento, writes Mary Schmitt Boyer of the Plain Dealer.
Trade Candidate: J.J. Redick
J.J. Redick wants to remain in Orlando, and the Magic are in no hurry to trade him. Nonetheless, GM Rob Hennigan has let Redick know multiple teams are interested in his services, and the team's losing is beginning to wear on the seventh-year veteran, who's said he'll look to sign with a contender if he's traded this season. That means Redick, in the last year of his contract, might wind up as a rental for whoever would be on the other end of a trade, but that might just be part of the plan.
Redick's $6.19MM expiring contract might be Orlando's best trade asset, and it wouldn't make much sense for a rebuilding team to commit long-term money to a 28-year-old who's started just 45 games in his career, despite how much Redick has grown on the team's new front office. He represents an opportunity for the Magic to package him with one or two of their less desirable assets, like Hedo Turkoglu and Al Harrington. The Magic would reportedly be seeking multiple draft picks in return for him, but a team in need of a shooter might be willing to bite.
The Wolves seem to have plenty of interest, and they've long coveted a shooting guard. They'd like to unload Derrick Williams in return, but the Magic aren't keen on that idea. Minnesota could wind up in the lottery again this year, and that pick could be intriguing to Orlando. The Wolves are over the cap, so they couldn't absorb Redick's salary without sending someone out. They could probably cook up a proposal around Greg Stiemsma and Dante Cunningham simply because they, like Redick, can come off the books after this season, but I don't think that would be enough for the Magic. Alexey Shved represents an intriguing prospect the Magic might want, but that's just my speculation. It would represent something of a gamble by the Wolves if they traded for Redick anyway, since it's not clear whether they're ready to contend if healthy, and Redick might not want to re-sign with Minnesota this summer.
A more logical fit might be the Thunder. They're certainly a contender, and they have the Raptors' first-round pick via the James Harden trade to dangle in front of Hennigan and company. They've been going with a shortened rotation this season after letting Daequan Cook go along with Harden. Still, even without Cook's gunning, they're 10th in the league in three-pointers made this season and third in three-point percentage, and Kevin Martin's outside game has been a major reason why. Redick, though more than just a three-point shooter, wouldn't really fit a need for Oklahoma City the way he would for the Grizzlies and Bulls, who are the only two teams behind the Timberwolves in treys made this season. Both those teams are reluctant to take on salary, which could make swinging a Redick deal tough, though it's worth noting that Redick's current contract was originally an offer sheet he signed with Chicago in 2010.
There isn't really a perfect match out there for Redick, and that's why I think he probably stays put this season. I'm not sure the Magic will re-sign him in the summer, preferring to take his contract off their books to create cap space they can either use in 2013 or down the road. Hennigan may prefer draft picks, but space and picks are usually the two most sought-after currencies for teams in Orlando's position, and I think they'd be just as content to take the space if someone isn't willing to bend over backward to give them the picks.
Atlantic Rumors: Bynum, Celtics, Carlesimo, Green
The Sixers have lost 16 of their last 22 games to fall into ninth place in the Eastern Conference, but Andrew Bynum provided a glimmer of hope Monday, telling reporters, including John Mitchell of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that he's feeling minimal pain in his knees and hopes to make his season debut around the All-Star break. While the Sixers continue to wait for their prize summer acquisition, here's the latest on their Atlantic Division rivals.
- Celtics basketball president Danny Ainge believes the five weeks or so between now and the trade deadline will be crucial, but as Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe details, Ainge is satisfied with what he's seeing from his squad, which has won five in a row. "Right now we don’t have a real need and we have players like Jason Collins and Leandro Barbosa who we really like and are hardly playing, so I don’t really see a need to bring someone else in, at least at this moment," Ainge said. "We’re happy with our roster and we’re looking for improvement but we feel like we have plenty of bodies and Chris Wilcox should be back in not too long. I don’t think there’s any need to bring in someone right now to sit on the end of our bench."
- Joe Johnson doesn't put too much stock in the interim tag on coach P.J. Carlesimo's title and regards him as the full-fledged boss of the Nets, as he tells Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News.
- Gerald Green was squeezed out of the Nets' plans this season when they used their taxpayer's midlevel exception on Mirza Teletovic instead, Bondy notes, but Green nonetheless has affection for recently fired coach Avery Johnson, who helped him resurrect his career.
- Mike Woodson has reached J.R. Smith in ways other coaches haven't, Newsday's Al Iannazzone examines.
Heat Could Pursue Timofey Mozgov
7:14pm: Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel tweets that there are no rumors about a trade of Mozgov to the Heat, indicating that Mozgov's comments were simply in response to a question about the Heat's need for a center.
12:22pm: We heard in mid-December from Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports and Zach Lowe of Grantland that the Nuggets were making Timofey Mozgov available, and it appears that stance hasn't changed in the last month. Chris Tomasson of FOX Sports Florida also reports that Denver is looking to deal Mozgov, and it sounds like the 26-year-old is fully aware that he could be on the move.
"It think it’s logical, you can see that, trading me," Mozgov told Tomasson. "I’m in my contract year. So if they can get something for me… I don’t think it would be a surprise for me (to be traded)."
One team that always seems to be in the market for a big man, and could use some rebounding help, is the Heat. Tomasson writes that the Heat could pursue Mozgov, though it's not clear what could of package they could put together that would entice the Nuggets. One of the team's top potential trade chips, Norris Cole, may not interest Denver since the Nuggets already have Ty Lawson and Andre Miller at the point. Miami could also dangle the 76ers' (lottery-protected) 2013 first-round pick, and multi-team deals are possible, as Tomasson notes.
Mozgov's inexpensive salary ($3.14MM) may make it more palatable for the Heat or another team to acquire him. Miami isn't a likely suitor for pricier bigs, since the club would probably need to include undesirable contracts like Mike Miller's or Joel Anthony's to match salaries, but Mozgov could potentially be had for one or two less expensive players.