Prospect Profile: Cody Zeller
Indiana's season is in the books, but Hoosiers fans will be keeping a close eye on two players in particular as we approach June. Victor Oladipo, a 6'5" walking highlight reel, figures to go in the top ten along with big man Cody Zeller. Nerlens Noel, injury and all, is still likely to be the first center off of the board, but Zeller won't be far behind in a draft class lacking impact big men.
At 7'0", Zeller made an impression right away as a freshman in 2011/12. The center led the team with 15.6 PPG and 6.6 RPG while shooting 62.3 percent from the floor, the fourth best field goal percentage in the nation. After being named the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year and impressing across the board, Zeller would have been a surefire lottery pick. Instead, he chose to came back to IU for a second season. He may not have improved his stock, per se, but it's hard to imagine that it's fallen significantly given the makeup of the 2013 class.
Zeller's return powered Indiana to win the Big Ten title and averaged 16.8 PPG with 8.2 RPG while shooting 57% from the field. He can move on to the NBA knowing that he did a great deal to help his team on the way out, but he's not necessarily leaving on a high note. Syracuse downed Indiana 61-50 on Thursday and a big reason for their W was their ability to take Zeller out of the game. There was no ~60% shooting percentage here as the big man shot just 3-of-11 from the floor. He wasn't stifled by anyone in particular as much as he just seemed overwhelmed by the team pressure the Orange put on him.
Some have slammed his aggressiveness in the wake of last week's tournament exit, but that game wasn't representative of his entire body of work. Zeller definitely has a mean streak and is more than willing to bang with other big men in the paint for loose balls. The shooting performance also wasn't indicative of what he's capable of. Zeller can work well with his back to the basket and has a skillset in that realm that should position him well at the next level.
What hurts him is his play on the other side of the ball. Defensively, Zeller has been able to use his size to frustrate opponents in college. In the NBA, being 7'0" alone won't make you a difference maker. In order to really develop as an all-around player, Zeller will have to – in the words of Hulk Hogan – say his prayers and take his vitamins. If he can't get stronger, then Zeller won't get very far at the next level. That aside, you can still expect Zeller's name to be called in the top ten in this year's draft.
Odds & Ends: Free Agency, Draft, Marketability
As more teams are eliminated from playoff contention, fans will undoubtedly turn some of their attention to this summer's free agent crop and draft, looking for a quick-fix that will land their team back in the playoffs next year. As a result, we are sure to see an increase in the publication of free agency and draft rankings. Let's look at a few lists here, as well as some other notes from around the league:
- Amin Elhassan, formerly of the Suns front office, ranks this summer's top 30 free agents for ESPN Insiders based on the average annual value (AAV) that he believes the player deserves. Among other things, Elhassan says that he considered the following factors: age, injury history, value of recent comparable player contracts, irreplaceability of skill set, contribution to winning, history of production, fit with style and culture, marketability and current cap situation.
- Also from ESPN, Israel Gutierrez and a panel from the TrueHoop Network break down how some of the offseason's top free agents compare to one another. Of the five presented comparisons, the only consensus is that Brandon Jennings is more valuable than his teammate Monta Ellis.
- We saw a pair of underclassmen declare their intent to enter the draft earlier today. Jeff Goodman of CBS gives his take on which of the other underclassmen should follow suit. The players have until April 16 to reverse their declaration if they want to maintain their college eligibility. Also, Goodman links to his early entry tracker.
- Jonathan Givony tweets that his Draft Express Top 100 was updated today, with the players headed back to school removed. Hoops Rumors' Prospect Profile series page is sorted based on Givony's rankings, and should become more complete every week as we approach the June 27 draft date.
- David Aldridge of NBA.com gives his take on the point guards that will be available in June's draft, concluding that while there isn't a Kyrie Irving-type of star within the crop, there are plenty of solid pros available. The strength of this draft has consistently been downplayed throughout the year, but we are now starting to see more experts, like Aldridge, suggest that what it lacks in star power, the crop makes up for in depth.
- Joe Kotoch of Sheridan Hoops releases his first mock draft, projecting a top three of Nerlens Noel, Marcus Smart and Ben McLemore.
- There's uneasiness among executives regarding
the marketability of the NBA going forward, along with a "healthy"
level of doubt about incoming commissioner Adam Silver, according
to Ken Berger of CBSSports.com, who wonders
whether tanking and side stories are overshadowing the games.
Draft Rumors: Noel, Zeller, McLemore, Porter
A pair of underclassmen declared their intentions to enter the NBA draft today, with N.C. State's C.J. Leslie and Kentucky's Archie Goodwin entering the mix. Here's more of what we're hearing with the draft now less than three months away:
- The tournament bracket makes it clear which NCAA teams are winners, but Ben Standig of CSNWashington sorts through the March Madness winners and losers as it pertains to the draft.
- Standig cites Kentucky center Nerlens Noel as a winner, and Sean Deveney of The Sporting News agrees, even though Noel has been out since February with a torn ACL (Twitter link). Other contenders to be the No. 1 overall pick, like Cody Zeller, Ben McLemore, Otto Porter and Marcus Smart all faltered, Deveney observes.
- Joe Kotoch of SheridanHoops.com unveils the initial version of his mock draft, and has Noel going first overall, followed by Smart and McLemore.
- A Western Conference GM tells Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv that six or seven members of the 2014 draft class would be in the mix for the No. 1 pick if they were eligible this year (Twitter link).
- A GM who spoke to Dave Telep of ESPN.com echoed that sentiment, citing five potential All-Stars who could be in next year's draft: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle and Andrew Harrison (Twitter link).
Wizards Notes: Wall, Okafor, Beal
Wizards players were among the many notables at the White House this morning for the annual Easter Egg Roll, and while Bradley Beal made his pitch for lower taxes to President Obama, a couple of his teammates appear focused on other ways to keep their bank accounts in order. Here's the latest on Washington's team:
- John Wall believes he's the ninth-best point guard in the league, but tries to explain to TNT's David Aldridge, who writes his Morning Tip column for NBA.com, why he believes he deserves a maximum-salary contract. "Well, I feel like I get what I deserve," the third-year point guard said. "I know what I play like. I think (the Wizards) understand what I've been through the first two years, having what I had. Not to talk bad on any of my teammates or any of the guys I've had. I just feel like some of them weren't very professional about their job. They didn't care about winning, to be honest."
- Wall feels better about his teammates this year, and said Washington's acquisition of veterans in the offseason has helped him warm to the idea of a long-term commitment to the Wizards. All things being equal, Aldridge doesn't believe Wall is a max player, but given the circumstances in Washington, he thinks a five-year deal worth $68.75MM, which would make Wall the team's designated player, would fit the bill.
- Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld also caught up with Wall, who offered further explanation on why he should get the max. "I’m not just going to base it on my play lately," he said. "I’m just talking about me in the future and how I want to change the organization around, making the playoffs and hopefully winning a championship here."
- Unless Emeka Okafor wanted to risk a significant paycut to sign with a contender, there's been little doubt he would elect to stay with the Wizards for next season and collect his $14.488MM salary rather than exercise his early-termination option for 2013/14. Okafor confirms his plan is to stay in D.C., as J. Michael of CSNWashington.com observes.
- Beal gave Grantland's Zach Lowe a wide-ranging interview that touched on his adjustment to the NBA and rumors earlier this season linking him to the Grizzlies in a potential Rudy Gay deal. "It is what it is. It’s a business. But I knew the (team) wasn’t going to trade me," Beal said.
Free Agent Stock Watch: J.J. Hickson
What a difference a year can make. On March 19th, 2012, the woeful Kings waived J.J. Hickson amid a disappointing season for the former first-round pick. It was quite a comedown for a young player the Cavs once viewed as a centerpiece of their future, but Hickson was averaging just 4.7 points and 5.1 rebounds for Sacramento. The Warriors were poised to sign him when he cleared waivers, but the Blazers pounced with a claim, bringing Hickson to Portland, where he has regained every bit of his promise, and then some.
The Blazers made Hickson a focal point of their offense late last season when LaMarcus Aldridge was injured, and he responded with 15.1 points per game, which would be a career high if it were extended over a full season. He's come close to matching that production in 2012/13, notching 13.1 points and 10.7 rebounds per game as the starting center alongside Aldridge. He's one of nine players in the league to average a double figures in both points and rebounds this season, and aside from Nikola Vucevic and DeMarcus Cousins, who are on rookie-scale contracts, Hickson, on a one-year deal worth $4MM, is the lowest-paid member of that group. Omer Asik is making $8.37MM this year, and the other five double-double guys are drawing eight-figure salaries, so it seems Hickson is in line for quite a raise in the offseason.
The 24-year-old N.C. State product was frequently mentioned in trade rumors, even though he had the right to veto any swap since he was on a one-year deal and will qualify for full Bird rights with the Blazers this summer. It probably wouldn't have been to his advantage to accept a trade, since his Bird rights wouldn't have carried over to his acquiring team. Still, the Pistons, Bobcats and Nets were linked to Hickson in the month leading up to the deadline. Charlotte was also in on Hickson over the summer, around the same time the Warriors appeared to once more be frontrunners for his services.
Assuming Hickson can command an annual salary that's at least as much as Asik's, which seems reasonable, he'd be too expensive for any team without cap room to sign him outright, unless it's the Blazers. A team that's over the cap but under the tax apron could engineer a sign and trade, but teams above the apron, who can't acquire players via sign-and-trade under new CBA rules, would be out of the running. That essentially eliminates the Nets as a possible destination, since Brooklyn is committed to about $84.5MM in salary for next season. The Warriors, depending on the decisions made by the four players on their roster who have player or early-termination options, will probably wind up close to the apron, making another pursuit by Golden State tricky.
The Pistons and Bobcats will have plenty of cap space, so of the teams other than the Blazers who've been linked to Hickson in the past year, they appear to have the clearest paths to sign him. Still, I'd be surprised if there aren't plenty of other teams ready to make a bid for Hickson in the summer. The combination of his youth and the numbers he's putting up this season figure to make him a sought-after commodity, even if there are concerns he could revert to his form in Sacramento. In an ESPN.com Insider piece, Amin Elhassen points to inconsistency and poor defense as reasons why Hickson should get no more than a four-year, $30MM deal. Yet Elhassen cautions that his projections are based simply on the player's on-court value, and not what he can get on the market. Centers are routinely overpaid, and though he might be too short to be a true center at 6'9", I think an annual salary in the ballpark of $10MM seems like a reasonable bet.
The Blazers, with only $43.24MM in commitments for next season, are set up with plenty of cap room to get a deal like that done, but they may prefer to use their space to sign others and exercise their Bird rights on Hickson to re-sign him once they're over the cap. Doing so would maximize their ability to bring talent aboard this summer, though a $10MM deal for Hickson if they're already over the cap would put them close to tax territory. In any case, the Blazers also have the power to spread Hickson's guarantee out over five years instead of the four that other teams are limited to, which could give them an advantage. I'm not sure Hickson, given his youth, would want to tie himself up for an extra year for the same amount of money, but it's clear the Blazers have some flexibility regarding how they can approach his free agency. Much can happen between now and July, but the Blazers will enter the process with a built-in edge.
Sacramento/Seattle Updates: Monday
The next major step in determining the future of the Kings is slated for Wednesday, when competing bidders for the team will make their presentations before a dozen NBA owners. There's sure to be plenty of news in the next 48 hours as we wait for that, and we'll round up today's latest right here:
- Sactown Royalty's Tom Ziller identifies the owners who'll be present at the meeting, which is a joint session of the league's Relocation and Finance committees, and speculates on which of them might be leaning toward either side.
- TNT's David Aldridge, in his Morning Tip column for NBA.com, provides plenty of detail about the meeting, which is in advance of a pair of votes the Board of Governors will take on April 18th. The first ballot will be on whether to approve the deal in place to sell the team to the Seattle group headed by Chris Hansen. Approval of that measure requires a three-fourths majority, meaning eight "no" votes would nix the sale. If that passes, the next vote is on whether to OK the franchise's move to Seattle. That would require a simple majority. Conceivably, that means the Kings could stay in Sacramento but wind up being owned by Hansen's group, though Aldridge doesn't address what would happen in that case.
- Aldridge hears from sources who give him conflicting word on whether the owners are leaning toward the Seattle group or the Vivek Ranadive-led Sacramento bidders.
- Ranadive would have to sell his minority share of the Warriors before assuming control of the Kings, and it's unlikely he'll have unloaded his stake in Golden State by April 18th, Aldridge writes. But the league is likely to give him sufficient time to do so if his group wins control of the Kings, and Aldridge hears that Ranadive likely already had a deal in place to unload his Warriors stake before he got involved with the Kings effort.
Rockets Recall Terrence Jones From D-League
We'll track today's D-League assignments and recalls here, with any additional moves added to the top throughout the day.
- The Rockets have recalled Terrence Jones from the D-League's Rio Grande Valley Vipers, tweets Jason Friedman of Rockets.com. The rookie power forward had been with the Vipers since March 21st on his sixth D-League assignment of the season. He's averaging 19.0 points and 9.0 rebounds in 24 contests with Rio Grande Valley. The 6'9" Kentucky product has only appeared in 11 NBA games for a total of 91 minutes for Houston, which made him the 18th overall pick in June.
Goodwin To Enter Draft; Cauley-Stein, Wiltjer Won’t
Kentucky shooting guard Archie Goodwin will enter the draft, while center Willie Cauley-Stein will stay in school, the university announced, according to Jeff Goodman of CBSSports.com (Twitter link). Fellow CBSSports.com scribe Gary Parrish tweets that Kyle Wiltjer will also remain at Kentucky. Forward Alex Poythress, another Kentucky underclassman, is leaning toward entering the draft, though he has not finalized his decision, reports Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com (Twitter link).
There's no word on Nerlens Noel, the most highly ranked prospect of the bunch, though he seems a decent bet to enter the draft, since he's still in the running for the No. 1 pick despite a torn ACL that prematurely ended his season. Goodwin, Cauley-Stein and Poythress hinted that they might return to school after a disappointing loss to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT. That Wiltjer is returning is no shock, considering neither DraftExpress.com nor ESPN rank the sophomore in their top 100 prospect lists.
Goodwin is not hiring an agent, according to Kentucky's press release, so he can still withdraw before the NCAA's April 16th deadline to do so. He's ranked No. 24 on ESPN's list and No. 18 by DraftExpress, while Cauley-Stein checked in at No. 18 and No. 21, respectively. Even though the rankings for both freshmen are roughly equivalent, Goodman praised both for their decisions, citing what he feels is Cauley-Stein's need for another year of seasoning (Twitter link).
Sixers Sign Justin Holiday, Waive Jeremy Pargo
9:48am: The Sixers have officially signed Holiday and waived Pargo, the team announced via press release. The release doesn't specify whether Holiday signed a 10-day contract or a lengthier deal, though according to Mitchell, the deal is for the rest of 2012/13. Pargo departs the team after signing a 10-day contract in February followed by a deal that covered the rest of the season. Philadelphia is on the hook for a prorated portion of the minimum salary for Pargo even though he won't be on the roster anymore. All told, Pargo will make about $265K from the Sixers this year.
MONDAY, 7:59am: Holiday has a signed contract and will be at Sixers practice Monday, according to John Mitchell of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The team will likely waive Pargo or Jenkins to make room.
SATURDAY, 11:29pm: The Sixers will sign shooting guard Justin Holiday, the older brother of All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday, tweets Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports. The Sixers are at the 15-man roster limit, so they'll have to waive someone on a guaranteed contract to fit Holiday in. It's unclear whether the deal is a 10-day contract or covers the rest of the season.
Holiday has averaged 17.0 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game for the D-League's Idaho Stampede this season, having spent the year with the club after the Blazers waived him at the end of training camp. The Blazers appeared high on the 6'6" 23-year-old, claiming him off waivers from the Cavs during camp and protecting his D-League rights so they could keep him on their affiliate. Portland never elected to re-sign him during the regular season, however.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Sixers are bringing Holiday aboard on a rest-of-the-season deal with a team option or non-guaranteed year that covers 2013/14. With the team five and a half games out of the playoffs with nine games left to play, there'd be little reason to waive a guaranteed deal just to sign a guy to a 10-day contract, but we'll see. The most likely candidates to go appear to be Royal Ivey, Charles Jenkins and Jeremy Pargo, all of whom are on minimum-salary deals. Damien Wilkins is also making the minimum, but he's been a part of the team's starting lineup of late.
C.J. Leslie To Enter Draft
MONDAY, 9:44pm: The school formally announced via Twitter that Leslie will enter the draft (hat tip to Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer).
TUESDAY, 12:52pm: Shortly after we heard news that Lorenzo Brown is expected to formally declare his intent for the NBA draft later this week, Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv reports (via Twitter) that Brown's N.C. State teammate C.J. Leslie will enter the draft as well.
Like Brown, Leslie played well in what figures to be his final game with the Wolfpack, scoring 20 points on 8-of-12 shooting in the team's loss to Temple last Friday. For the season, the 6'8" forward averaged 15.1 PPG and 7.4 RPG.
A year after deciding to return to N.C. State for his junior year, Leslie may find that his draft stock has slipped slightly. When Leslie made his decision last April, he was ranked 28th and 34th respectively on Chad Ford's and Jonathan Givony's lists of prospects for 2012. Currently, the 21-year-old is ranked 35th by Ford and 43rd by Givony for 2013.