Free Agent Stock Watch: Timofey Mozgov
A year ago, Omer Asik was coming off two seasons in Chicago in which he averaged 2.9 PPG, 4.4 RPG, a .529 FG%, and a 12.6 PER in 13.2 minutes per game. Despite the pedesterian numbers, Asik was considered a big man with upside, and earned a three-year, $25MM contract from the Rockets. He lived up to that $8.3MM annual salary in his first season in Houston, starting all 82 games and averaging a double-double.
Timofey Mozgov isn't exactly the same type of player as Asik, but there are certainly plenty of similarities between the two bigs. Mozgov was considered a crucial piece in the blockbuster trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to New York two seasons ago, but with JaVale McGee and Kosta Koufos ahead of him in the Nuggets' rotation, Mozgov hasn't seen a whole lot of playing time over the last two years. Since the start of the 2011/12 season, Mozgov's averages look similar to Asik's in Chicago: 4.1 PPG, 3.4 RPG, a .520 FG%, and a 12.9 PER in 12.3 MPG.
Like Asik a year ago, Mozgov will be eligible for restricted free agency this summer. While it was a no-brainer for the Bulls to extend a qualifying offer to Asik to ensure they could match rival offers (even though the team ultimately decided not to match Houston's offer), that's not necessarily the case for the Nuggets and Mozgov. At least one report has suggested Mozgov will receive a qualifying offer from Denver, but that was met with some skepticism from at least one reporter, and it's not hard to see why.
Assuming Andre Iguodala opts out of his 2013/14 contract in search of a long-term deal, the Nuggets will still have approximately $52MM in guaranteed money on their books before attempting to negotiate new contracts for Iguodala and Corey Brewer. If the team hopes to bring back both players, or even just Iguodala, it's unclear if Mozgov's $3.93MM qualifying offer will be an affordable expense for a team that figures to steer clear of the luxury tax.
Still, the Nuggets have shown they're willing to pay big bucks to a player who essentially amounts to a backup center (McGee). Perhaps the risk of Mogov accepting that $3.93MM qualifying offer will be outweighed by the desire to keep a valuable asset under team control. After all, based on the amount of interest reported in Mozgov at the trade deadline, it seems there will be plenty of suitors for the big man, both this summer and perhaps in a trade at next year's deadline.
The list of potential suitors for Mozgov figures to include his old team, as the Knicks' interest was reported both before and after the trade deadline. The Timberwolves also reportedly made a play for Mozgov, with the Bobcats and Heat making inquiries as well. Not all of those clubs will be able to make big offers for the Russian this summer — New York and Miami, for instance, will both be taxpayers, meaning the mini mid-level exception (up to three years and $9.98MM) will be the most they can offer, and that's assuming they make Mozgov their top free agent priority, which may be unlikely.
For a team like the Bobcats though, pursuing a player such as Mozgov would make a lot of sense. Charlotte has plenty of cap space at its disposal, but is unlikely to be in the mix for any premier free agents, based on the team's record and history. So why not make a play for a young big man with upside like Mozgov? The bidding for the Nuggets center probably won't reach Asik territory, meaning an offer like the one the Hornets gave Robin Lopez last season (three years, $15.36MM) might be enough to get something done, and avoid the Nuggets matching. In that scenario, Mozgov would get some long-term security and a nice payday, while the Bobcats (or a similar lottery-bound team with cap room) would get the chance to roll the dice on a player who could thrive with more playing time. And at that price, the contract wouldn't become too toxic an asset even if Mozgov struggled.
It's hard to get a strong read on Mozgov's free agent value, given how little we've seen of him on the court in the NBA. I don't expect him to be quite the prize that Asik was last year, but if Mozgov receives an offer that seems disproportionate to his career production, we shouldn't be surprised. The 26-year-old didn't get a real chance to shine in Denver, but a player with his combination of size and promise won't go unnoticed on the open market.
Sixers Notes: Cap Room, Coaching Search, DiLeo
The Sixers officially introduced Sam Hinkie as their new general manager and president of basketball operations at a press conference Tuesday afternoon, and we rounded up a few of his initial comments in a pair of posts. Hinkie's job in Philadelphia will be a busy one this summer, as he leads a search for the team's next head coach, and decides whether the current roster needs to be rebuilt or retooled. Here's the latest out of Philly:
- One possible approach for the Sixers this summer will be to hold off on using the team's potential cap space in favor of gaining even more room under the cap for the summer of 2014. However, according to Tom Moore of PhillyBurbs.com (Twitter link), Hinkie says that strategy is "by no means the favorite out of the barn."
- The head coaching search that former GM Tony DiLeo started included names such as Michael Malone, Brian Shaw, and Michael Curry as potential top candidates, as John N. Mitchell of the Philadelphia Inquirer details. Will those names be atop Hinkie's list as well? "Those names weren't my names, but I won't throw them out out of hand," Hinkie said. "That's just not the way I operate. I have a list of guys that I think are interesting. I'd like it to grow and I'd like to solicit the ideas of others."
- In a piece at Philly.com, Michael Levin of SBNation.com pours one out for longtime Sixers exec DiLeo, who had held various roles in the organization for more than 20 years.
Draft Links: Gobert, Mock Drafts, Muhammad
With so many likely first-round prospects suffering from injuries or simply not wanting to hurt their draft stocks (if they're already surefire lottery picks), don't expect too many big names to get on the court at this week's predraft camp in Chicago, writes Jeff Goodman of CBSSports.com. Most of this week's participants will be potential late-first or second-round picks, fighting to move up in the draft. Nonetheless, Goodman identifies seven guys worth keeping an eye on, led by Frenchman Rudy Gobert.
Here's more on the Chicago combine and the 2013 NBA draft:
- HoopsWorld has released the third installment of its consensus mock draft, with four writers contributing their projections for the first round.
- Also receiving updates today: Chad Ford's top 30 at ESPN.com (Insider-only link) and Chris Mannix's big board at SI.com. Ford's list includes the latest rumblings about who will and won't be participating in drills in Chicago this week.
- Ford also shares observations (Insider link) on a number of players he saw yesterday at the Fitness Formula Club, including Mason Plumlee and Tim Hardaway Jr.
- In one final non-Insider Ford link, the ESPN.com scribe answers readers' draft questions in an hour-long chat.
- Shabazz Muhammad is expected to choose Bill Duffy of BDA Sports Management for his representation, according to Goodman (Twitter link). Goodman adds that the decision is surprising, considering Wasserman Media Group was the favorite for Muhammad.
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Nowitzki Talks Cap Room, Howard, Paul, FAs
As the Mavericks head into the offseason looking to add talent, and potentially another star, to the roster to complement Dirk Nowitzki, the German appeared on Ben and Skin on 105.3FM in Dallas to discuss the coming summer. The Dallas Morning News transcribed a few of Nowitzki's more interesting quotes, so let's take a look at what he had to say….
On the team's ability to add players this offseason:
"It's easier to turn a franchise around if you have cap space. You can go for free agents, you can go for a big sign-and-trade. We could be a lot worse off and be locked in on a bunch of contracts. And we've got the draft. This is a big summer for us. I think [Mark] Cuban is as fired up as me. I've been to the gym a couple of times working out already; I see him in his little box suite, going to work already."
On top free agents Dwight Howard and Chris Paul:
"We'd love to get one of those two. We'd love to get a player in here who can create his own shot and be a superstar-type player. It's still a long way to go until July. Those guys need to clear their minds a little bit and get away and then start thinking what they want to do with their futures. Hopefully, that's where we come in and put a great pitch out there and see what happens."
On making a pitch to free agents:
"I'll definitely be a little involved. But I'll be in the draft 'war room' for the first time … order some pizza and talk some basketball. I got one year left on this deal and then I'm coming off the books. So if that helps for us to be better I'm going to take a paycut. That's part of the pitch. Cuban and Donnie [Nelson] have got to be part of the pitch. I think Dallas and the fans here, the sellout streak, the city to live in is gorgeous and has gotta be in the top five in the league. Hopefully, some of those guys will decide to come, and if not, we've gotta have a Plan B. If none of those top free agents come, we gotta make some moves with sign-and-trades or something. We want to get back to the playoffs and be a factor. We owe it to these fans who come out every single night to support us."
It's worth noting that when Nowitzki refers to his willingness to take a paycut, he's likely referring to his next contract. The NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement prohibits the veteran forward from renegotiating his current contract to reduce his existing $22.72MM salary for the 2013/14 season.
Cuttino Mobley Attempting NBA Comeback
After an 11-year NBA career, Cuttino Mobley announced his retirement in December 2008 when he was diagnosed with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, a heart condition. Although Mobley hasn't appeared in an NBA game in nearly five years, he'll be attempting to make a comeback this year, according to Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld.
Kennedy reports that ASM Sports, an agency that represents Kevin Garnett, Serge Ibaka, and Jeff Teague, among others, is holding a workout on May 31st for their draft prospects and veteran free agents. Mobley is one of a handful of veteran ASM clients expected to participate in drills and five-on-five scrimmages that day. According to Kennedy, Josh Howard, Rasual Butler, and Christian Eyenga are among the other free agents who will be in attendance.
It will be an uphill battle for Mobley, who will turn 38 before the 2013/14 season begins. I'd be surprised if he lands a spot on an NBA roster, but he did demonstrate exceptional scoring ability during his 11-year career. In 747 total contests for the Rockets, Clippers, Magic, and Kings, Mobley averaged 16.0 PPG to go along with shooting percentages of .433/.378/.835.
Pistons To Interview Brian Shaw
Brian Shaw will interview to be the new head coach of the Pistons, according to a report by WXYZ-TV passed along by Vincent Goodwill of The Detroit News. The former player is in the midst of a playoff run as an assistant coach with the Pacers, but once their season ends, Shaw will interview for the head coach position. Pacers president Donnie Walsh has asked that his assistants not interview for other jobs until after the team's playoff run.
In a recent article for HoopsHype, longtime Phil Jackson confidant Charley Rosen said that he wouldn't be surprised if Jackson's former player was offered the Pistons job. The Zen Master, of course, is currently serving as a hiring consultant for Detroit.
Shaw is also in the running for the Nets' head coaching position, with Larry Brown and Jackson himself on Brooklyn's list of candidates, though Jackson isn't interested in the Nets' opening. Shaw is also up for the Sixers open slot as head coach, as we learned earlier this month.
Odds & Ends: Wiggins, Kings, Hinkie, Mavs
The Knicks are staring at a 3-1 deficit after falling to the Pacers for the second game in-a-row tonight in Indiana, 93-82. The Pacers will look to close out the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Thursday in game 5 of their Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup.
While the now-less exciting second round of the NBA playoffs trundles on with the Spurs back at the cozy confines of AT&T Arena in San Antonio for game 5 against the Warriors, we've got more Andrew Wiggins and Sam Hinkie news, and some reports from the predraft NBA combine starting in Chicago tomorrow and going through Sunday..
- Andrew Wiggins announced he was attending the University of Kansas earlier today, but Adam Himmelsbach of USA Today Sports reports that Wiggins' parents weren't even aware of his final decision. The Canadian is projected to be the top pick in the 2014 draft.
- Chris Daniels of Seattle's King 5 (Twitter link) reports that Kevin Johnson has landed in Dallas and the mayor calls a recent lawsuit filed by two Sacramento attorneys baseless and desperate, among other words. Johnson and Vivek Ranadive's group are continuing their fight to keep their club in California's capital.
- More from Sam Hinkie via Tom Moore at PhillyBurbs including Hinkie's quote "I'm not afraid to push my chips to the middle." Hinkie recognizes that while the 76ers aren't in position to contend right away, he feels a sense of urgency to get the club back on track.
- David Mayo of MLive lists of all 63 invitees (62 college and one D-League) to the NBA's Draft Combine this Wednesday through Sunday. Projected No. 1 pick Nerlens Noel will be in attendance as he works his way back from a torn ACL.
- Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News says the Mavs have "71 draft-worthy" players to look at at the Predraft camp in Chicago.
- Warriors coach Mark Jackson talked to San Jose Mercury News' Tim Kawakami about Harrison Barnes' selection to the NBA's All-Rookie 1st Team, the status of David Lee, and more.
Sam Hinkie Talks Sixers, Analytics, D-League
Sam Hinkie was named the President of Basketball Operations and General Manager for the Sixers earlier today, after formerly working as the Rockets' Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations. Hinkie still needs to name a new head coach after the departure of Doug Collins, as well as figure out what to do with the Sixers' roster moving forward. He goes one-on-one with Max Rappaport at Sixers.com about his background in analytics and finance and the importance of the NBA's D-League affliates.
On how he got his start in sports:
"Maybe it looks like a different path, but it doesn't look that way if you've lived my life. I dribbled a basketball my whole life and was consumed by it and to this day (that passion) exists. If you could have asked someone when I was a child, "Some day there'd be a job that involved basketball and math, who would be good for that?" They'd have said, "Sam has to do it."
"That's a big part of my wiring and a big part of my life, and the game's been a big part of my life, forever. I say all that knowing my pitiful playing career ended quite early and probably lasted too long, as it was."
On the intersection between math and basketball, particularly the analytical and traditional approach:
"I think, increasingly, teams are just looking to get every edge that they can. This is maybe a relatively new frontier, at least to basketball, but it's been going on in other industries for the last several decades, one after another. To me, it's not all that surprising and, by the way, it's not the last one. There'll be a new one. There'll be how to measure a player's psychology, or wild improvements in nutrition for players, or whatever… there will be a new edge.
"This is a place where with data, and technology, and a bunch of people focused on it, there's a bit of a sweet spot where there's a lot of progress there."
On his background in finance and how it relates to the rules in the new CBA:
"I think it helps maybe to be able to prioritize things and have an approach to say, "What's important? And what are the key levers here? And if I pull on each one of these, what happens?" I don't think that's a critical component to it, but, increasingly, in trades, free agents, and the like, there's salary matching and a lot that goes into it. That sort of realm feels natural to me."
On how important second round picks are especially after his time with the Rockets:
"Everywhere you can… Everywhere you can. That's one example, and you're right, the Rockets did have some success there. Every place you can find an edge, you should – the free agent market, the undrafted market, the D-League, international players, Americans playing overseas, international players playing in America, the second round. You should be looking for all those opportunities, finding whatever edge you can.
"Often times, when you find an edge, it's not for very long. People figure it out, so you have to try and exploit it, quickly, while you can."
On the importance of the D-League affiliate:
"I'm very bullish on that. I really like the idea of having a team that you have control over. It gives you an extension of your personnel department, you get all kinds of additional scouting points from your coaching staff and your personnel folks that are working down there (in the D-League). We found that to be really successful. It's, of course, great to be able to control the development with your players more.
And one of the things I really love here is just the proximity (of the 87ers). It'll be so nice to be able to shuttle players back and forth, as appropriate, and get your players down the learning curve as fast as possible. I look forward to having that team be a tool that we can use."
Saunders: No Repair Work Needed With Love
According to ESPN1500 columnist Judd Zulgad, the new president of basketball operations for the Timberwolves, Flip Saunders, spoke with the Wolves' franchise power forward, Kevin Love, on Tuesday. When asked whether the Wolves needed to do any repair work between the team and Love, Saunders replied, "I don't think so."
Love's 2012/13 season was difficult as he missed all but 18 games due to two separate fractures of his hand and averaged 18 PPG after averaging 26 PPG the year before. His previous career low in games played were the 60 he played in his sophomore 2009/10 season. But Love's antagonism with the Wolves extends beyond his injury-plagued 2012/13 season.
When former head of basketball operations, David Kahn, was in charge of the franchise, and Love's rookie contract was due for an extension in January of 2012, the Timberwolves only offered Love a four-year $62MM extension, with an option for the fifth year, instead of the maximum allowable, which would have paid Love $80MM over five years like fellow 2008 rookie, Russell Westbrook. Westbrook signed a $78.65MM extension for five years earlier the same week that Love signed his.
Not only that, but in an interview with Y! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski in December last year, Love was critical of the Timberwolves' front office, particularly Kahn, with Love wondering at the time, "Is there really a plan here? Is there really any kind of a … plan?"
But Saunders says the rift between the team and Love was largely exaggerated, and from what he's seen, Kevin is on board with what the Wolves are trying to do.
Continued Saunders:
"You hear a lot in the media, and having been in the media, I take everything with a grain of salt. Having been there, too, (when it comes to what's reported) and what's actual. A lot of times when players are actually going through interviews sometimes they are in a situation where the context of the interview, things can be taken a little bit out of context.
"I just know in my conversations with him since I've been here, he's just said that he's on board, he's looking forward to the journey that we're all going to take down the road and he's working hard to get in shape.
"I think in another week-and-a-half he'll be pretty much unlimited in what he can do physically. I don't see anything that's happened in the past that's going to really push him back and he's going to hold anything against the organization."
We'll know for sure in the summer of 2015, when Love can opt out of the last year of his deal and become an unrestricted free agent.