Offseason Outlook: Portland Trail Blazers
Guaranteed Contracts
- LaMarcus Aldridge ($14,628,000)
- Nicolas Batum ($11,295,250)
- Wesley Matthews ($6,875,480)
- Damian Lillard ($3,202,920)
- Joel Freeland ($2,897,976)
- Meyers Leonard ($2,222,160)
- Victor Claver ($1,330,000)
- Will Barton ($788,872)
Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- Sasha Pavlovic ($1,399,507)1
Free Agents / Cap Holds
- J.J. Hickson ($7,600,000)
- Eric Maynor ($5,846,803)2
- Luke Babbitt ($2,902,758)
- Elliot Williams ($2,373,538)
- No. 10 pick ($1,930,600)
- Nolan Smith ($1,424,520)
Draft Picks
- 1st Round (10th overall)
- 2nd Round (39th overall)
- 2nd Round (40th overall)
- 2nd Round (45th overall)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $43,240,658
- Options: $0
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $1,399,507
- Cap Holds: $22,078,219
- Total: $66,718,384
If you were simply perusing the NBA's regular-season standings, you could be forgiven for thinking that the Trail Blazers took a step back this past season. After all, Portland's 33-49 record (.402) was the franchise's worst mark in seven years, and the club took a nosedive at the end of the season, losing its final 13 games.
But consider how the Blazers' roster looks now compared to how it looked after the lockout. The 2011/12 season opened with Nate McMillan on Portland's bench, coaching a veteran-heavy team that included Raymond Felton, Marcus Camby, and Gerald Wallace, among others. Since then, Portland has jettisoned its overpriced veterans, added 2012/13's Rookie of the Year (Damian Lillard), locked up a promising young swingman (Nicolas Batum), and built around a big man who receives perennial All-Star consideration (LaMarcus Aldridge).
In addition to Lillard, Batum, and Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Meyers Leonard look like keepers, and give the Blazers a solid core at positions one through five. But while that five-man unit represents a nice start for Portland, the team's weakness in '12/13 wasn't its starting lineup — it was its bench. With J.J. Hickson starting in Leonard's place, the Blazers' bench was made up primarily of NBA rookies (Leonard, Joel Freeland, Victor Claver, and Will Barton) and unproductive players on rookie deals (Nolan Smith and Luke Babbitt).
The bench figures to be GM Neil Olshey's primary area of concern this offseason, as he enters the summer armed with the 10th overall pick and over $10MM in cap space. Olshey has talked multiple times about making the roster deeper and more flexible, so it's unlikely he'll put all his cap room toward a single player, though a big man like Nikola Pekovic could make a nice target. The more likely scenario involves dividing that cap space and using it on multiple mid-level type players to give the team some productive bench players while its young players continue to develop.
Although a number of mock drafts have the Blazers taking a big man like Steven Adams, I'd be a little surprised if the club targeted a center with the No. 10 pick, considering Leonard remains a work in progress in the middle. Pairing Leonard with another rookie makes less sense to me than having him team up with a veteran who can help him develop. Hickson saw plenty of minutes at the five a year ago, but Portland figures to target a more traditional center rather than playing a power forward out of position again. Chris Kaman looks to me like a good fit, and Jermaine O'Neal has indicated he'd have interest in returning to the Blazers.
Assuming the Blazers don't target size in the draft, a shooter such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or C.J. McCollum would be ideal, as ESPN.com's Chad Ford suggests in his latest mock draft. It's also worth noting that Portland controls three second-round picks, at 39th, 40th, and 45th overall. After incorporating so many rookies a year ago, the Blazers will prefer to add veterans this year, so I'd be surprised if more than one of those second-round picks ends up on the roster next season. It's more likely that the Blazers will use those picks to either facilitate trades or to stash international players overseas.
A backup point guard behind Lillard also figures to be a priority, and the Blazers will have the option of extending a qualifying offer to Eric Maynor, who was acquired from the Thunder in a deadline deal. Given Maynor's performance and injury woes over the last couple seasons, his stock isn't exactly sky-high at the moment, so Portland may decide to pass on the QO and consider him along with a handful of other unrestricted free agents. Mo Williams, Devin Harris, D.J. Augustin, and Will Bynum are among the guys who also could be in the Blazers' price range.
A year ago, the Blazers attempted to make a huge splash by signing Roy Hibbert to a four-year max offer sheet, but they were thwarted by the Pacers, who matched the offer. Hibbert would have provided exactly the sort of rim protection Portland lacked in 2012/13, and it will be interesting to see how the team addresses that issue this summer. Of the top free agent centers, Dwight Howard isn't coming to Portland, Pekovic and Al Jefferson don't offer a whole lot in the way of rim protection, and a pursuit of the injury-plagued Andrew Bynum may cause a riot in Portland. As such, I think we're unlikely to see the Blazers make any huge bids on free agents like they did with Hibbert.
For Portland, this figures to be a summer of filling in a number of holes without spending exorbitantly on any one spot. With all their core players locked up through at least 2015, the Blazers have to focus on adding the right complementary pieces if they want to become a playoff team in the West. The success they have in finding those players may determine how long Aldridge remains in Portland — if the Blazers undergo another losing season in 2013/14, it will likely only be a matter of time before trade rumors start swirling.
Additional notes:
- I focused more on free agent targets than trade targets for the Blazers, but trades are very much in play for Olshey. One asset to consider when Portland eyes a potential deal is Kostas Papanikolaou, whose agent expects the Blazers to move his client at some point.
- The Blazers will continue to pay the amnestied Brandon Roy his salary through 2014/15. Assuming Roy doesn't sign elsewhere for the '13/14 season, which looks like a safe bet, he'll receive a $17.89MM salary from Portland.
Cap footnotes:
- Pavlovic's contract is fully non-guaranteed. It becomes fully guaranteed if he's not waived on or before January 7th, 2014.
- Maynor will be eligible for a qualifying offer of $3,351,387.
Storytellers Contracts and Sham Sports were used in the creation of this post.
Cavs Rumors: Draft, Workouts, Karasev, Trades
As I wrote last week when I previewed the Cavaliers' offseason, Cleveland figures to be one of the league's most active teams this summer, particularly in the trade market. With four draft picks in the top 33 (including No. 1 overall) and a good chunk of cap space available, there are plenty of options available to the Cavs this summer. Here are the latest rumblings out of Cleveland on how the club may look to improve its roster:
- While the Cavs remain undecided on who they'll pick first overall, it won't be Anthony Bennett or Victor Oladipo unless they trade down, sources tell Sam Amico of FOX Sports Ohio.
- That leaves Nerlens Noel, Otto Porter, Alex Len, and Ben McLemore as potential options for the first overall pick, and the Cavs figure to meet with all those players this week. Mary Schmitt Boyer of the Cleveland Plain Dealer passes along a report from ESPN.com's Andy Katz (via Twitter) suggesting that Porter, McLemore, and Oladipo will work out for the Cavs on Wednesday, while the injured Noel and Len will interview with the club on the weekend.
- In addition to the aforementioned players, one other prospect is under consideration by the Cavs with the No. 1 pick, sources tell Amico, though it's unclear who the player is. Cleveland will continue to look into trading the top pick as well.
- The Cavs are also exploring trade options involving their two second-round picks (31st and 33rd), according to Amico. The team could attempt to package those two picks for a third first-rounder, or could throw the 19th pick into the mix as well in an attempt to move up in the first round.
- We heard from ESPN.com's Chad Ford earlier today that the Cavs like Sergey Karasev, and Amico echoes that report, also noting that the Russian forward may not be on the board when Cleveland picks at No. 19.
- Cleveland has recently engaged in trade talks involving a "viable" small forward, a source tells Amico.
Doc Rivers Unsure About Returning To Celtics
3:28pm: Rivers is scheduled to be in Boston on Wednesday, and plans to sit down with Ainge, according to Wojnarowski (via Twitter).
12:41pm: With trade talks between the Clippers and Celtics dead in the water, it doesn't appear Doc Rivers will be coaching in Los Angeles next season. What remains to be seen is whether he'll be coaching in Boston. According to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports, Rivers is unsure about returning to the Celtics as the team's head coach.
As Wojnarowski reported earlier today, when talks between the Clippers and Celtics ended, GM Danny Ainge called Rivers to inform him he still wanted to see Doc return to Boston and coach the remaining three years on his contract. While Ainge and Rivers are close, it's hard to envision Rivers back on the sidlines for the Celtics next season, considering how far along things got with the Clippers. As one source tied to Celtics ownership and Rivers told Wojnarowski: "You don't just move on from this and act like nothing happened."
Rivers' contract with the Celtics includes a non-compete clause that would prevent him from coaching another NBA team over the next three years, unless Boston received satisfactory compensation. If Rivers were to part ways with the C's, he would likely have plenty of options available to him as a broadcaster.
Resolution on the situation is expected within the next several days, according to Wojnarowski. As the Yahoo! scribe notes, until the Clippers hire a new head coach, it's possible trade talks could be re-opened, but for now it appears the two sides are going their separate ways.
Ford’s Latest: Cavs, Bobcats, McLemore, Mavs
Echoing an overnight report from Sam Amico of FOX Sports Ohio, ESPN.com's Chad Ford says in his latest mock draft that the Cavaliers remain undecided on their first overall pick. While the team appears likely to keep the pick, a number of players are still being considered, including Nerlens Noel and Alex Len. According to Ford, Noel remains the favorite because he fits the sort of high-upside profile the Cavs typically target, but there are some in the organization who prefer Len.
Here are several more highlights from version 5.0 of Ford's 2013 mock:
- Ford hears that Victor Oladipo has the upper hand over Ben McLemore for the Magic at No. 2, though the team would strongly consider Noel if the Cavs passed on him.
- The Bobcats will likely be deciding between Anthony Bennett and Len at No. 4, if both players are available, but Cody Zeller could be a dark horse, says Ford.
- Teams are worried about McLemore after a series of unimpressive workouts, and it's possible he slips past the Suns at No. 5, according to Ford.
- The Timberwolves appear to have narrowed down their choice at No. 9 to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Shabazz Muhammad.
- The Sixers figure to target size at No. 11, with Zeller, Mason Plumlee, and Lucas Nogueira among the possibilities.
- Assuming the Mavericks don't trade the 13th pick, though it's very likely they will, a player like Sergey Karasev, who could be stashed overseas for a year or two, is a strong possibility, says Ford.
- Karasev also interests the Cavaliers at No. 19, though Cleveland likes Reggie Bullock as a potential consolation prize, according to Ford.
- The Jazz appear to be a good bet to target a big man at No. 14 and a point guard at No. 21.
- Ford continues to hear that the Knicks have a "strong affinity" for Tony Mitchell.
Negotiations End, No Deal For Celtics, Clippers
2:33pm: According to tweets from Ramona Shelburne and Arash Markazi of ESPN.com, financial concerns weren't the reason the Clippers pulled out of the deal. The team was prepared to give Rivers a big contract, but didn't want to give up two first-round picks in the move (Twitter links).
11:46am: According to Wojnarowski (via Twitter), Ainge has called Rivers to inform him that talks are over and that he still wants Rivers back as the Celtics' coach.
11:41am: Sources tell Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link) that the Clippers got "cold feet" over the financial commitment necessary to complete the deal. Even if Terry and Lee weren't involved, the Clips would have been paying Jordan's trade kicker and committing a $6-7MM annual salary to Rivers.
11:31am: The Clippers don't appear to be posturing when they say talks are over, according to Turner, who tweets that the deal is "dead, dead, dead." Amick and Dan Woike of the Orange County Register are also hearing the same thing (Twitter links). Celtics GM Danny Ainge confirms to Baxter Holmes of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) that negotiations are over from Boston's perspective as well.
11:01am: After days of negotiating, the Clippers appear to have called off a potential deal with the Celtics that would have sent Kevin Garnett and coach Doc Rivers to L.A., according to Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Turner hears from a Clippers executive that the Celtics were asking for too much in the proposed swap.
Earlier today, we heard that while the Celtics would have liked to include Jason Terry's or Courtney Lee's contract in the deal, Boston was willing to hang on to those players if the Clippers gave up two first-round picks. However, according to Turner (via Twitter), the Clippers were unwilling to part with multiple first-rounders in addition to DeAndre Jordan. Los Angeles will move forward with its head coaching search, as owner Donald Sterling prepares to meet with Byron Scott today and Brian Shaw tomorrow, says Turner (via Twitter).
I'm a little surprised that a second first-round pick would be the sticking point for the Clippers, considering how many other concessions the Celtics appear to have made, including agreeing not to include Eric Bledsoe in the deal. The Clippers figured to be a perennial contender in the West for the next several years if they locked up Chris Paul to go along with a roster that would also include Blake Griffin, Garnett, and whatever other assets the team acquired this summer, so those future picks would likely have landed late in the first round.
It would seem to be in the best interests of both teams to get something done — for the Clippers, it virtually guarantees Paul would re-sign with the team in July, while for the Celtics it would mean starting their rebuilding process in earnest. Both sides wanted closure one way or the other early this week, so it's possible that talks are indeed dead, as Sam Amick of USA Today is also hearing (Twitter link). But as Amick notes, until the Clippers officially hire a head coach besides Rivers, it's hard to believe both teams would truly walk away from this deal.
Odds & Ends: Hawks, Draft, Mark Jackson, Bulls
As we look forward to what could be the final game of the 2012/13 season tonight, let's check in on a few odds and ends from around the NBA….
- Hawks GM Danny Ferry was noncommittal when asked by Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal Constitution if the team planned to extend qualifying offers to Jeff Teague and Ivan Johnson. I'd be pretty surprised if Teague didn't receive a qualifying offer, considering he's unlikely to accept the one-year offer and it could always be rescinded if Atlanta needed to clear cap space.
- In addition to Dario Saric, Norvel Pelle, and the 14 international prospects we identified in yesterday's post, Viktor Gaddefors and Joshua Simmons also withdrew from the 2013 draft, the NBA announced today.
- Warriors head coach Mark Jackson tells Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News (Twitter link) that he and the team haven't had any recent talks about a contract extension, and he's fine with that.
- Although the Mavericks were recently named as a potential suitor for Monta Ellis, Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com thinks the veteran guard is "far from a perfect fit" for the Mavs.
- The Bulls could go in a number of different directions on draft night, but the most likely outcome will see the club drafting a big man, says Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com.
- They may not have reached a trade agreement with the Celtics, but the Clippers still figure to be very active this offseason, writes Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
Grizzlies To Complete Coaching Search This Week?
1:38pm: Gentry will meet with the Grizzlies for a second interview later this week, according to Ronald Tillery of the Memphis Commercial Appeal (via Twitter). Tillery adds (via Twitter) that Joerger remains the frontrunner for the job, but Gentry is "strongly in the mix."
1:05pm: The Grizzlies are expected to complete their search for a head coach by week's end, a source tells Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link). Dave Joerger, who is reportedly interviewing with the team today, is expected to be the final candidate for the job, according to Spears.
Current Grizzlies assistant Joerger has long been viewed as the likely successor to Lionel Hollins in Memphis, but based on the candidates interviewed by the Grizz within the last week, it appears he's far from a lock. Former Nuggets coach George Karl met with the team yesterday, while ex-Suns coach Alvin Gentry and Bulls assistant Ed Pinckney also interviewed for the job.
The Grizzlies were also said to be monitoring Doc Rivers' situation in Boston, though it appears unlikely they'll get involved there, given the compensation required to pry Rivers away from the Celtics.
Draft Rumors: Cavs, Celtics, Ledo, Pelle, Zeller
Although one report yesterday suggested that the Cavaliers were leaning toward selecting big man Alex Len with the first overall pick in next week's draft, Sam Amico of FOX Sports Ohio hears that's not the case. Amico reports (via Twitter) that there's still no clear frontrunner for the Cavs' No. 1 pick, which likely means Len remains in the mix along with prospects like Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore, and Otto Porter. As we enjoy the uncertainty of not knowing which player will be picked first overall, let's round up a few more of today's draft-related news and rumors….
- If the Celtics end up acquiring the Clippers' 2013 first-round pick (25th overall), Ricky Ledo represents a likely target for Boston, tweets ESPN.com's Chad Ford.
- Like a number of international prospects we heard about yesterday, Norvel Pelle has also withdrawn from the NBA draft, according to Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times. Pelle, who missed workouts with several NBA teams due to foot issues, remained eligible to withdraw from the draft up until yesterday's deadline, since he didn't attend college.
- Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer (Twitter link) hears that Cody Zeller will work out for the Bobcats on Wednesday.
- In an Associated Press report (via ESPN.com), Glen Rice Jr. talks about attempting to become the first player drafted in the first round after playing in the D-League.
Clippers/Celtics Updates: Tuesday
Even with Game Six of the NBA Finals less than 12 hours away, the hottest topic around the Association remains the trade talks between the Clippers and Celtics involving Kevin Garnett, DeAndre Jordan, and Doc Rivers. We rounded up a ton of reports on the story yesterday, but by the end of the night, the two sides had yet to reach an agreement. As the two sides continue to negotiate, we'll round up the latest rumors on the proposed deal below, with any additional updates coming throughout the day:
- As we noted last night, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reported that the deal may get done without the Clippers giving up Eric Bledsoe or taking on Jason Terry's or Courtney Lee's contracts. In that scenario, Boston would be seeking Jordan and two first-round picks. Ramona Shelburne and Marc Stein of ESPN.com reported that the Clips were unwilling to acquire both Terry and Lee, but still may take on one of the two — however, according to Wojnarowski, L.A. has refused to take on additional salary "in any combination."
- In the event an agreement is reached, the Clippers would have to pay about $3.5MM for Jordan's 15% trade kicker and would also be prepared to offer Rivers a five-year contract worth about $35MM, writes Wojnarowski. So the move would represent a significant financial commitment for the franchise even without Terry or Lee involved.
- While there's still optimism that a deal will get done, the Clippers are preparing a contingency plan for their head coaching opening, having owner Donald Sterling meet with Byron Scott on Tuesday and Brian Shaw on Wednesday, according to Shelburne and Stein. As for Rivers, he remains "torn" on whether he'd return to the Celtics should this deal fall apart, says Wojnarowski.
- Although various outlets are reporting slightly different details on the talks, all of the latest reports, including those from ESPN.com, Yahoo!, and Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald, agree that Bledsoe is off the table and won't be part of the deal if it gets done.
Clippers/Celtics Updates: Monday
The trade talks between the Celtics and Clippers aren't quite dead yet, but they also didn't move forward at all yesterday, as we detailed in a pair of posts rounding up Sunday's updates. Though the two sides have reached a stalemate for now, they continue to engage in talks and hope remains of finding an agreement, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports (via Twitter). We'll keep tabs on today's new items right here, with any further updates added to the top of the page throughout the day:
- The price to complete the deal may come down to the Clippers' willingness to include a second first-round pick, sources tell Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports. After pushing for the Clippers to take back long-term contracts, the C's relented and have shown willingness to complete the deal for DeAndre Jordan and two first-round picks. The Clippers are willing to give the Celtics Jordan and one draft pick, but are resisting a second future pick. Boston has also dropped their pursuit of Eric Bledsoe, which could help speed things along.
- The two sides have decided to leave the office for the evening and will reconnect tomorrow morning, league sources tell Wojnarowski (Twitter link).
Earlier updates: