Amick On Expected Buyers, Sellers At Deadline
In his most recent column, Sam Amick of USA Today passed on a lot of information gathered from six NBA executives speaking anonymously regarding what he thinks will be a “very active swapping season.” Talk includes teams from around the league looking to win now or bolster rebuilding efforts. The entire article is worth the read, but here is a brief roundup:
- The Knicks “have decided to think big” as the deadline approaches, and believe that the Celtics‘ Rajon Rondo is more available than Boston general manager Danny Ainge is letting on. Trading Carmelo Anthony is not being given serious consideration, despite all the speculation surrounding his willingness to re-sign this summer.
- Rival executives think that if Ainge were to make any Rondo move, he would wait until just before the deadline to do so.
- The Pelicans are thought to be willing to trade Eric Gordon, although moving the two-year, $29MM left on his contract would be a challenge.
- If the Suns don’t acquire Pau Gasol, Thaddeus Young is another possible trade target before the deadline. It’s also believed that Phoenix would have strong interest in Rudy Gay this off season should he opt out of his player option.
- The Spurs and Bobcats were mentioned by an executive as possible destinations for the Sixers‘ Evan Turner, either through a trade this season or when he becomes a restricted free agent this summer.
- It’s more likely that the Pistons move players with expiring deals (Rodney Stuckey, Charlie Villanueva or Jonas Jerebko, for instance) than for them to part with Greg Monroe before the deadline.
- The Timberwolves have great urgency to make the playoffs and keep Kevin Love content, and are thought to be willing to part with J.J. Barea, Dante Cunningham, and Alexey Shved for a deal that would help them avoid finishing another season outside the playoffs.
- While the Grizzlies‘ Zach Randolph hasn’t said whether he will opt out of his contract this summer, he has indicated that he wants to remain with Memphis. For their part, the Grizzlies don’t appear to be shopping him. The Suns inquired about the power forward, but were told he wasn’t available.
- The Magic aren’t eager to move Arron Afflalo, and it would likely take a proven player in addition to any draft picks to pry him away from Orlando.
Celtics Sign Chris Johnson To 3-Year Contract
9:29pm: Steve Bulpett of The Boston Herald tweets that it is a three year deal that’s non-guaranteed after this season.
6:33pm: Chris Johnson‘s pro-rated salary for this year is at about $320K, according to a tweet from ESPN Boston’s Chris Forsberg. That would keep the Celtics shy of paying the luxury tax, which was a consideration factoring into their decision on whether to keep Johnson.
5:54pm: The Celtics have signed Chris Johnson to a multi-year deal, per a team press release. Per team policy, the terms of the deal were not announced, so it isn’t yet known how long the contract will run. The team was considering adding one additional year beyond this season as of yesterday, and that still seems to be the most likely contract length considering Johnson’s lack of leverage to demand more years. For the same reason, it’s also likely that the additional year(s) will be non-guaranteed, which is typical for mid-season, multi-year deals like this one.
The second year small forward had played on two consecutive 10-day contracts for Boston this season, averaging 7.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 21.6 minutes per game, about double the production he had in his eight games with the Grizzlies last year.
Johnson is a client of Pinnacle Management Corp., whose signing gives the Celtics their 14th guaranteed contract out of a maximum 15, a fact that could be significant heading towards the trade deadline. As is, the Celtics could only receive one extra player back as part of a hypothetical trade. That, in addition to their proximity to the tax line, limits their flexibility in working transactions. This would particularly curb deals where they might take a burdensome contract off another team’s books in exchange for draft picks, as they have done with Joel Anthony and the Heat, and last summer’s blockbuster when they absorbed the lengthy, expensive Gerald Wallace contract.
Southwest Notes: Pelicans, Spurs, Covington
Kevin Arnovitz of ESPN details Pelicans GM Dell Demps‘ process of rebuilding New Orleans’ roster after trading away Chris Paul in 2011. A mixture of good and bad results have come from that blockbuster trade (Eric Gordon), drafting (selecting Anthony Davis last year, trading Nerlens Noel for Jrue Holiday this year), and free agency (Ryan Anderson, then Tyreke Evans via a sign-and-trade with the Kings that also sent away Robin Lopez), and the team has little flexibility in the near future. Coach Monty Williams is unhappy with the current roster’s performance, but a slew of injuries this year has limited a thorough roster evaluation, as well as the team’s performance. “The errors in planning are easy to enumerate and Demps tacitly admits some of his primary goals are cleaning up his own mistakes,” writes Arnovitz. “Fortunately for the Pelicans, a single truth lies beneath the spreadsheets: When you have a budding star like Anthony Davis, you can afford to make mistakes.” Here’s more from around the division:
- It cost roughly $200K for the Pelicans to buy recent signee Luke Babbitt out of his contract with BC Nizhny Novgorod, reveals Marc Stein of ESPN.com. New Orleans also paid $575K to pry Alexis Ajinca from his French team this season.
- The Rockets have assigned Robert Covington to the D-League, per Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Covington has spent most of the year in the D-League, owning the longest assignment stretch of the season after a 72-game stint that ended in January.
- Shannon Brown tells Jeff McDonald of San Antonio Express-News that he’s working hard to extend his time with the Spurs beyond his current 10-day contract, which expires Tuesday per our 10-Day Tracker.“All I can do is going out and give my best, do what the guys ask me to,” Brown says. “Let the chips fall where they may. I’m going to play hard no matter what. That’s one thing they aren’t going to be able to say about me, that I didn’t battle.”
Chuck Myron contributed to this post.
Trade Candidate: Arron Afflalo
Arron Afflalo seemed in position for a starring role when he arrived in Orlando via the Dwight Howard trade in 2012. He endured a poor shooting season and failed to become the Magic’s clear No. 1 option last year, but now he’s finally broken out. The 28-year-old has lifted nearly every phase of his game, averaging 19.9 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per contest this year, all career highs. He’s making 42.7% of his three-pointers, and his PER of 17.6 is his first of more than 14.7. All those numbers add up to an indication that he’s finally living up to the five-year, $38MM deal the Nuggets gave him in 2011.
He’s worth more than the $7.5MM salary he’s set to receive through the 2015/16 season if he can maintain his production. He shot better than 40% from three-point range in three of his previous six seasons in the league, so his touch isn’t likely to go away, in spite of last year’s 30.0% long-range accuracy. He’s seeing 14.9 shot attempts per game, only 0.8 more than he took last season, when he scored 16.5 PPG. His assist numbers have steadily climbed over the last five years, though his increased rebounding could merely be a product of needing to muck in for a Magic team that’s declined from 14th in the league in rebounding percentage last year to 25th this time around, per NBA.com.
In any case, it seems like Afflalo, still on the right side of 30 years old, is primed to continue to play at or near the level that made him a candidate for the All-Star team this year. He’s putting up his numbers on the second-worst team in the league, but he’s doing so efficiently, suggesting that his stats aren’t simply a product of his surroundings.
GMs around the league reportedly think there’s a strong chance those surroundings will change soon. Afflalo is perhaps among the most valuable trade assets on the market, according to Chad Ford of ESPN.com. The Magic are nonetheless batting down offers, making it difficult to ascertain just how highly they value him, as Ford wrote in this week’s chat. Teams have held the belief that they can indeed persuade Orlando to trade Afflalo, but GM Rob Hennigan is driving a hard bargain.
The Magic and Clippers talked about proposals involving Afflalo and Eric Bledsoe before L.A. dealt Bledsoe to the Suns, and maybe Hennigan regrets missing out on Bledsoe, who’s blossomed into a star for Phoenix in his first season as a full-time starter. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to land an up-and-coming talent quite like that for Afflalo now, unless that sort of player comes as a future draft pick. The Magic already have three extra first-rounders headed their way in the next several years, so relinquishing their leading scorer for yet another might not be appealing.
Perhaps Hennigan could find another undervalued young player as he did last year with Tobias Harris, who edged out Afflalo for the Magic scoring lead last season after coming over from the Bucks. Hennigan dealt away J.J. Redick in that trade, months before Redick signed with the Clippers for four years and $27.755MM, so the Magic know how to find value for a well-regarded shooting guard. Perhaps there’s another deal to be had with the Bucks, who could use the infusion of a fringe All-Star entering his prime if they hope to return to the playoffs next season. Still, Milwaukee appears to be hanging on to its young players this time around, and unless its stance on buy-low candidate Larry Sanders changes, Hennigan will have to look elsewhere.
The Cavs are in free-fall, and while many of their recent first-round picks have underperformed, maybe interim GM David Griffin will be willing to swap one or more of them if the team is still intent on making the playoffs this year. Cavs owner Dan Gilbert is high on Dion Waiters in spite of the trade rumors that surrounded the former No. 4 overall pick this year, but if the Cavs can turn him into Afflalo, it would give Cleveland an upgrade, at least for the time being. If Hennigan could convince Griffin to throw in Anthony Bennett, the Magic would have the top two picks from the 2013 draft.
The trick in identifying undervalued assets is you have to see what others don’t. If Hennigan feels confident about a player on another team who would be available, he could put his skills of talent evaluation on full display, but the safer, and seemingly more likely, choice is to keep Afflalo through the deadline. There’s no urgency to trade him, since the Magic aren’t going anywhere this season and he’s not on an expiring deal. Removing him from the roster in exchange for a developing player or two would weaken the Magic in the short term and give them a better shot at the No. 1 overall pick in June, but they aren’t having trouble losing games. The idea is not to carry those losing ways into the future, so Hennigan need not overplay his hand with Afflalo, an asset on the rise.
Northwest Rumors: Blazers, Gallinari, ‘Melo
After the injured Russell Westbrook played his last game, the Thunder were tied with the Blazers atop the Northwest Division at 23-5. Since then, Oklahoma City has opened a four-game lead, even though Portland has been largely healthy. While the Blazers defense could use a boost if they’re to catch the Thunder, it’ll have to come from within, since coach Terry Stotts doesn’t expect the team will make any changes at the deadline, as he tells Sean Deveney of The Sporting News. Here’s more from the Northwest:
- Danilo Gallinari tells Chris Dempsey of the Denver Post that he thinks he could have played on his surgically repaired left knee this season, but he says it wasn’t fully healed and he feared he’d shorten his career if he tried it out. He instead opted for another surgery that sidelines him for the season, but he expects to be ready for camp this fall.
- There’s no consensus around the league about who got the better end of the Carmelo Anthony trade nearly three years later, observes Fred Kerber of the New York Post. Some are withholding judgment until after the season, when the draft choice New York still owes the Nuggets could become this year’s No. 1 overall pick.
- The Thunder have assigned Andre Roberson to the D-League, the team announced. That makes it a half-dozen trips to the Tulsa 66ers for the rookie power forward, who’s still managed to start four games for the big club.
Luol Deng Unlikely To Re-Sign With Cavs
There’s little chance, if any, that Luol Deng will choose to re-sign with the Cavs in free agency this summer, sources tell Marc Stein of ESPN.com, who passes along the news in a piece on Anthony Bennett‘s development. Deng praised the Cleveland organization in January, when he said he was “more than open” to signing an extension, and he even encouraged LeBron James to sign with the club, but it appears he’s soured on the team since. Deng reportedly told a close friend of his displeasure with the Cavs, who’ve seemingly been a hub of unrest all season.
Agent Herb Rudoy held off on extension talks in the days after Deng came to the Cavs via trade last month, though there were rumors that Rudoy would seek salaries of more than $13.5MM a year for Deng. Rudoy and Deng quickly rejected a three-year, $30MM extension offer from the Bulls shortly before the trade. The soon-to-be 29-year-old Deng figures to be a sought-after commodity on the market this summer if he doesn’t sign an extension, and it seems most likely that he’ll become a free agent.
The Cavs will have his Bird Rights, meaning they can sign him to a five-year deal with slightly higher raises than the four-year contract he could get from another team. Cleveland might be reluctant to commit major money for five seasons to a player with whom the team has gone 4-10 so far, so it remains to be seen how much of a financial advantage the Cavs will possess. Just who would negotiate for the team is also a question mark, since it’s uncertain whether interim GM David Griffin will keep his job through the summer.
Central Notes: Bynum, Cavs, Bulls
Cavs owner Dan Gilbert spoke about the need for a “cultural and environmental change” Thursday after dismissing ex-GM Chris Grant, and comments that Andrew Bynum made Friday to reporters, including Candace Buckner of the Indianapolis Star, seem to back that up.
“It wasn’t that it didn’t work (in Cleveland),” Bynum said, “it’s just the atmosphere over there wasn’t the one that kind of promoted positive energy in wanting to come in and really — it was just tough at the end of the day.”
There’s more on Bynum’s former team amid our look at the Central:
- Cavs owner Dan Gilbert says his team has what it needs to be successful, but he nonetheless believes the club will be active at the trade deadline, observes Mary Schmitt Boyer of the Plain Dealer. Gilbert wouldn’t say whether the team will be a buyer or a seller.
- Sam Smith of Bulls.com answers reader questions, explaining why trading Taj Gibson to help the Bulls clear the necessary cap room to sign Carmelo Anthony would be an unnecessary risk.
- Earlier today, we passed along news that the Bucks are rejecting trade offers for Larry Sanders and the latest on the Cavs.
Knicks Consider Firing Woodson Before Deadline
FRIDAY, 1:10pm: Woodson and several assistants expect to be fired before the All-Star break, sources tell Michael Scotto of SheridanHoops.com. Still, Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck hears from sources who the believe the team will let Woodson finish the season.
WEDNESDAY, 8:29am: Knicks coach Mike Woodson has seemingly been on unsteady ground much of the season, and with losses and internal criticism mounting, there’s a chance the team will dismiss Woodson before the February 20th trade deadline, a source tells Steve Popper of The Bergen Record. The Knicks hit a new low with a loss to the league-worst Bucks on Monday, and Amar’e Stoudemire is the latest to question the coach’s decision-making.
Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler have also voiced displeasure with some of Woodson’s on-court moves. Owner James Dolan gave Woodson a vote of confidence in November, but that pronouncement didn’t seem to have much staying power, and by December upper management was evaluating him on a game-by-game basis. Woodson helped draw himself back from the brink with a win over the Bucks that month, but it sounds like Monday’s loss has pushed the coach back in the other direction.
The Knicks are in tenth place in the Eastern Conference at 19-29, two games out of the final playoff spot, and they have little reason to be content with entering the draft lottery, since they traded their 2014 first-round pick in the deal to acquire Anthony. A rumor earlier this season suggested assistant GM Allan Houston might be in line to take over for Woodson if the team changes coaches. Multiple reports have linked the Knicks to Tom Thibodeau, but that seems a long shot, and Thibodeau almost certainly wouldn’t leave the Bulls for New York until after the season.
Ray Allen Not Planning To Retire This Summer
A little more than a year ago, Ray Allen told Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times that he was thinking about retiring at the end of last season. The 18th-year veteran won’t rule it out for this summer, but he says stepping away from the game isn’t his plan, as Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel observes.
“At this point, I love how my body feels,” Allen said. “It’s 18 years for me. I love what I’ve done and how I’ve continued to feel.”
Allen, 38, is in the final season of a two-year deal. He could have opted out of the pact last summer in search of a multiyear contract, but he didn’t want to think beyond the 2013/14 season.
“I was like, ‘Let’s try it again and we’ll deal with that issue then,’ because nothing’s more important than the present,” Allen said. “And that’s the one thing I learned early in my career, is always be in the moment.”
The sharpshooter will make a final decision this summer about playing in 2014/15, but he says his desire to keep playing has much to do with his affection for working with his Heat teammates, calling his time in Miami the most fun he’s had in his career. It’ll be a pivotal summer for the Heat, with only Norris Cole on a guaranteed contract for next season. Each of the team’s three superstars can opt for free agency, Shane Battier is likely to retire, and Winderman suggests Rashard Lewis, James Jones and perhaps Udonis Haslem are nearing the end, too.
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