LeBron Likely To Opt Out, Sign Two-Year Deal
LeBron James is “widely expected” to opt out of his contract this summer and sign a new contract that covers two years with a player option for the final season, just like the one he signed this past offseason, writes Joe Vardon of the Northeast Ohio Media Group. It’ll almost certainly be another maximum-salary arrangement with the Cavs, as James made it clear that he has no intention of leaving Cleveland again. James is intent on making the “appropriate business decision”, even if it means changing teams this summer, as Northeast Ohio Media Group scribe Chris Haynes heard in December. However, James has said on multiple occasions that he signed his existing short-term deal to maximize his earnings and not to set up an early exit from the Cavs.
Vardon estimates that the maximum salary for a player with 10 or more years of experience, like James, will swell to about $23MM next season. That would give James roughly $1.5MM more than he’d make on his option, which is worth about $21.573MM. Regardless of where the league sets the maximum salary, which won’t be determined until July, James can sign for up to 105% of his approximately $20.644MM salary from this season. The value of the player option is 104.5% of his salary this year, so as long as James is in line to command the maximum salary, as he assuredly will be, opting out will be the wise financial play.
It also makes financial sense for James to sign another short-term deal. The Cavs will only have his Non-Bird rights this summer, so the second season of his deal could again represent no more than 104.5% of the salary in the first year of the contract. Plus, most league executives assume the salary cap will zoom to around $90MM for 2016/17, and that would send maximum salaries skyrocketing with it. So, the ability to once more hit the market and reap part of the influx of the league’s new television deal is surely enticing for the Rich Paul client.
Brian Windhorst of ESPN.com first wrote in July that James would probably continue to sign short-term deals. Inking another two-year pact with a player option, as Vardon pegs him likely to do, would give James the greatest amount of guaranteed money possible while still allowing him the chance to hit free agency again in 2016. Contracts signed under the most recent collective bargaining agreement can only contain one option year, unlike the deal that James signed with the Heat, which contained two options.
The ability for James to leave so soon has made the Cavs a “little uncomfortable”, Windhorst wrote in October, even though it seems highly unlikely he leaves. Another short term deal would keep pressure on the Cavs front office to cater to James, who, as Vardon points out, wants the team to keep spending to maintain a championship-caliber roster. Still, given the backlash James would engender if he were to once more desert Cleveland, the pressure on GM David Griffin and company might be overstated.
Trade Candidate: Thaddeus Young
The Timberwolves expected to contend for a playoff spot this season, but injuries and disappointing play have dropped the team into the cellar of the Western Conference. The team is currently 11-41, which is good for second place in our Reverse Standings, thus guaranteeing the Wolves a top-five pick in the 2015 draft if they hold that position. The franchise has a great passing point guard in Ricky Rubio, a few nice long-term pieces in Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad and a potential star in Andrew Wiggins. The Timberwolves have a good nucleus and the future looks bright, but the light at the end of the tunnel is a few seasons down the road.
The team also employs several veterans, including Thaddeus Young. The Wolves chose to acquire Young instead of a top-10 protected first-round pick as part of last summer’s blockbuster Kevin Love trade. That pick, which originates from Miami, has a decent chance of ending up in the lottery. The decision was a blemish in an otherwise good trade, a rarity for a team dealing away a star player. The team simply overestimated the talent on its roster and thought it could make the playoffs this season.
Young thought he was coming into a situation where he could help a winning team, but instead, the forward will be on one of the worst teams in the league for the second consecutive season. Young subtly requested a trade from the Sixers last season, in part because of the team’s direction. Although Young hasn’t requested a trade this season and the Wolves haven’t implemented the same kind of tanking strategy as the Sixers, which I previously examined, the situation remains unappealing.
Young had a rocky start to the season, but he has played better since the start of 2015, averaging 14.3 points and 1.9 steals per game. His role has been overextended at times this year. As with many non-stars in the league, Young’s usage rate and player efficiency rating (PER) have an inverse relationship. When his usage rate stays below 20.0, the league average, the forward has experienced his best seasons in terms of PER, with his rating peaking at 18.93, which is well above league average. As his usage rage has risen about that figure, he has experienced his worst seasons in terms of PER, with his rating falling all the way to 14.90 this season. Still, the talent is there and most contending teams could always use another contributor come playoff time.
The Nets were interested in acquiring Young as part of a bigger trade that sent Brook Lopez, whose value I examined last month, to the Thunder. The Nets were interested in flipping Kendrick Perkins to the Wolves as part of a three-way trade, though it’s unclear if Minnesota would have required more to part with Young. Only netting a veteran on an expiring contract in exchange for Young would represent a severe drop-off in the 26-year-old’s value, considering what Minnesota passed up to obtain him. Last season, as our own Chuck Myron pointed out, Young’s value was at its peak. This season, his value might be at its low point.
Young will make slightly more than $9.41MM this season and more than $9.71MM next year. He has an early termination option at the end of this season that could void the final year of his deal, which could make a trade even more tricky. Getting a team to give up any sort of valuable asset for the forward could be problematic given his ability to hit the free agent market during the offseason. Any team that comes close to acquiring him would probably want to suss out which way he’s leaning on the option. Most suitors would probably shy away if they get the impression that he’ll opt out, although that’s just my speculation.
The Raptors could be a potential fit after they were “sniffing around” the league for an upgrade at the power forward position. Players such as Taj Gibson, David West and Kenneth Faried have been mentioned in connection with Toronto. Young would most likely cost Toronto much less to obtain than any of the trio but it is questionable whether Young is an upgrade over current starter Amir Johnson. Toronto would give Young a situation akin to what Jeff Green stepped into when he was traded to Memphis. Green has played well as complementary option and the Grizzlies have gone 12-2 since acquiring the Georgetown product.
Young has proven he can be a productive player when he has talent around him. Just this season, in games with Ricky Rubio in the lineup, Young has averaged 15.4 points per game while shooting 47.9% from the field and posted a plus-minus of plus 23. In games without Rubio in the lineup, Young has scored 14.1 points per game while shooting 43.7% from the field but has a plus-minus of minus 241.
Many teams would love to acquire the forward but only for the right price. Young’s value has taken a severe hit this season and it may be a great buy-low opportunity for some willing franchise. Yet, as is the case with the Nuggets and Arron Afflalo, if the Wolves can get a return that rivals what they gave up for Young, they would be wise to jump on that opportunity.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Clippers Notes: Allen, Depth, Options
The Clippers are less than $1.2MM below their $80.829MM hard cap, which could make acquiring a player who can play significant minutes problematic. Los Angeles has spoken with Sebastian Telfair about a potential deal and would have interest in Kevin Garnett or Amar’e Stoudemire if either player agrees to a buyout with their current clubs.
Here’s more on the team that, for now, resides in seventh place in the Western Conference:
- Doc Rivers has spoken to Ray Allen recently, but he doesn’t know if the Clippers are in the mix for the shooting guard, according to Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). The Warriors, Wizards, Cavs, Spurs, Heat and Hawks are among the teams that have been linked to the 39-year-old.
- The Clippers‘ lack of depth may cause them to fall in the standings during Blake Griffin‘s time away because of injury, opines Jon Hamm of The Oklahoman. Hamm examines how the Clippers built their team around stars and compares the team to the Thunder, who drafted all of their stars and were able to remain in the playoff hunt after a rash of early season injuries.
- The Clippers have a few options to fill Griffin’s void, as Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders examines in a video. Spencer Hawes is the best candidate on the roster to step up and keep the team afloat during Griffin’s absence. Kennedy adds that If Hawes isn’t able to elevate his game, free agency might be the team’s best option to add talent due to the team’s lack of resources. The Clippers lack the young talent that many teams desire in return for productive players and the next first-rounder that the team can promise to a trade partner is its 2021pick. Check out our Draft Pick Tracker to see which teams will get the Clippers’ future picks as well as which picks will be on the move for the rest of the teams in the league.
Eastern Notes: Dudley, Crowder, Jack
Jared Dudley was skeptical about coming to play for the Bucks, but after playing with the team for just half a season, the forward is considering staying Milwaukee for the long-term, writes Gery Woelfel of the Journal Times. “I’ve been giving it thought,’’ Dudley said. “For me, it’s about adding more years. You obviously want to play longer. I want to come back here. Definitely. I mean, this team is building each year and will get better.” The 29-year-old is set to make $4.25MM during the 2015/16 season but if he elects the early termination option in his contract, he can become a free agent at the end of this season.
Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:
- Jae Crowder is fitting in nicely with the Celtics, writes A. Sherrod Blakely of CSSNE.com. The forward is known for his defense but there is another reason why coach Brad Stevens has been able to give him significant playing time. “What I like is his versatility,” Stevens said. “And coming off the bench you have flexibility of where you bring him.” Boston is 3-1 over its last four games and Crowder is averaging 12 points and 5.5 rebounds during those contests.
- Jarrett Jack has been one of the major reasons that Brooklyn is still in the playoff hunt, writes Reed Wallach of NetsDaily.com. Last offseason, Jack was acquired as part of a three team trade that was primarily about giving the Cavs financial flexibility. The point guard has not only been able to bolster the Nets‘ bench unit, but he has provided the team with a good starting option when Deron Williams is unable to play because of injuries. Jack has started 25 of the Nets’ 50 games this season.
- James Johnson can be a contributor for the Raptors come playoff time, opines Eric Koreen of the National Post. Koreen notes that although Johnson has shooting issues from the perimeter, he more than makes up for it with his stout defense. Johnson is averaging 1.0 blocks per game and owns a player efficiency rating of 18.4.
Ray Allen Rumors: Monday
Ray Allen plans a decision about his NBA future after this week’s All-Star break, as Brian Windhorst wrote this morning and as we passed along earlier. That time frame, while not quite specific, has nonetheless led to another batch of Allen-related news, so we’ll round it all up here, with any additional updates added to the top throughout the day:
5:59pm update:
- The Warriors haven’t heard anything new from Allen or his representatives for weeks, Tim Kawakami of the Bay Area News Group tweets.
- The Warriors remain interested and they intend on keeping their last roster spot open until he makes a decision, according to Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group (Twitter link)
2:02pm update:
- Nearly every playoff-bound team has reached out to Allen, including clubs without open roster spots, as Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders tweets.
- The Warriors plan to follow up with Allen and his reps, according to Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle, adding that nothing has changed from the team’s perspective (Twitter link). GM Bob Myers said in December that he’d reached out to Allen’s camp, though Marcus Thompson of the Bay Area News Group indicated last month that the team had abandoned the idea. Windhorst nonetheless wrote in his story this morning that Golden State has kept in touch with the Jim Tanner client.
- Sources close to Allen emphasized to Kennedy the sharpshooter’s long-held stance that he hasn’t decided whether he’ll play at all, and the 39-year-old has yet to tell even his own reps whether he plans to return to the NBA, according to J. Michael of CSNWashington (Twitter links).
Kings Offer Coaching Job To George Karl?
4:35pm: Multiple players on the Kings roster oppose the would-be hiring of Karl, Jones hears (Twitter link). Karl’s social media campaigning has rubbed some the wrong way, Jones adds (on Twitter), though it’s unclear if that’s the reason why the players don’t want him to coach the team.
4:15pm: The Kings have not made an offer to Karl, sources tell Chris Broussard of ESPN.com, which conflicts with Bucher’s report (below). Chances are good that the sides won’t reach agreement until after the All-Star break, the ESPN scribe adds.
2:52pm: People close to Cousins believe that the team will hire Karl soon, Voisin tweets.
2:43pm: Negotiations with Karl continue, but D’Alessandro hasn’t made his final decision yet, a source close to the team tells Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports. Corbin has been informed that he’ll stay on through the team’s final two games before the All-Star break, Spears also reports (Twitter links).
1:03pm: Ranadive and D’Alessandro are interrogating Karl about his health, tweets Ailene Voisin of The Sacramento Bee. The 63-year-old is a two-time cancer survivor, as Voisin points out.
12:47pm: The Kings have offered Karl a contract, a league source tells Bleacher Report’s Ric Bucher (Twitter link).
12:39pm: Ranadive has granted D’Alessandro the power to make the hire he wants if he wishes to make a coaching change, Amick reports. Presumably, that’s further indication that a deal with Karl is forthcoming, as Amick writes, nonetheless noting that it’s unclear just when D’Alessandro would want to make a move. There were also indications Sunday that Cousins’ camp was warming to the idea of Karl as the team’s coach, Amick observes
11:28am: Some in the front office have reservations about Karl and have told Cousins about their concerns, but D’Alessandro seems prepared to forge ahead and reach an agreement with Karl, as Jones explains in a full piece.
MONDAY, 8:17am: The Kings front office has recommended that the team hire Karl, and they’re close on the terms of a deal, leaving the decision in the hands of ownership, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link). Tyrone Corbin met with the front office Sunday evening and remains the head coach of the Kings, Wojnarowski tweets, but it sounds as if the two games the Kings have before the All-Star break will be Corbin’s last in charge of the club, according to Jason Jones of The Sacramento Bee (on Twitter).
Meanwhile, Cousins seems perturbed with the whole affair and vented to reporters after Sunday’s game, saying in part, “This city done put me through so much and I stayed loyal to it the whole time,” as James Ham of Cowbell Kingdom relays.
SUNDAY, 7:39pm: There was was a sizable gap between the two sides on salary and the length of a potential contract, but that has been narrowed, according to Amick. D’Alessandro, meanwhile, appears willing to make the hire without the consent of Cousins’ camp.
Aaron Bruski of NBCSports.com (on Twitter) hears from a source that the discussions with Cousins’ camp have largely been to smooth things over from the Mike Malone firing and show that the team respects his place as a franchise player.
5:47pm: Kings GM Pete D’Alessandro is still pushing hard to hire George Karl as the team’s next head coach, according to Sam Amick of USA Today Sports (via Twitter). As was rumored on Saturday, Karl is expected to talk with DeMarcus Cousins‘ camp later on today (Sunday). The meeting, Amick adds, will be crucial towards Karl’s candidacy.
A potential deal between the two sides is not dead, but there’s still plenty of work to be done if a deal is going to happen, Amick tweets. The idea that Karl must win over Cousins before getting the gig is also quite real. When asked if he was playing a role behind-the-scenes in whether Karl would get hired, Cousins didn’t exactly issue a denial:
“I’m waiting just like you guys,” Cousins said on Saturday. “There’s gonna always be allegations, there’s always going to be he said/she said.”
Cousins’ agent Dan Fegan told Ailene Voisin of The Sacramento Bee (on Twitter) that his client is not “blocking” a deal and if the Kings want Karl, they should “make the move. We don’t run [the] team.” That could be exactly what the Kings are planning to do. The Kings aren’t saying much today and neither is Karl’s camp, according to Voisin (on Twitter), and that’s usually a sign that the parties are close to making something happen, in her view.
Mavs, Wizards Eye Kevin Martin?
3:53pm: The Wizards regard Will Bynum as their chief target aside from Ray Allen, writes J. Michael of CSNWashington.com, so it doesn’t appear as though Martin is a high priority for them.
MONDAY, 10:35am: There’s “nothing there yet” regarding the Mavericks and Martin, a source tells Wolfson (Twitter link).
FRIDAY, 2:33pm: Washington hasn’t discussed Martin to this point, as Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities hears (Twitter link).
9:10am: The Mavericks and Wizards are “among the possibilities” for Kevin Martin, as Chris Mannix of SI.com writes within his Open Floor column, calling the Timberwolves shooting guard a “player to keep an eye on” as the February 19th trade deadline approaches. Still, a source told Sean Deveney of The Sporting News about a week ago that there’s “almost zero chance” the Wolves swing any deals because of the long-term salary commitments involved with many of their veterans. Martin, who makes nearly $6.793MM this season, is under contract through 2016/17, a season for which he has a player option worth almost $7.378MM.
Despite those salaries, Jon Krawczynski of The Associated Press wrote last week that he didn’t get the sense that the Wolves wanted to trade the 11th-year veteran. Martin has played in only 14 games this season, including a 37-point performance against the Knicks in which he broke his right (shooting) wrist. He returned to action just last week after an absence of more than two months because of the wrist, and he scored 30 points in Minnesota’s last game, a victory over the Heat. The 32-year-old is averaging 20.5 points per game so far this year, which would represent his first season with a scoring average of better than 20.0 PPG since 2010/11.
Neither the Mavs nor the Wizards have a trade exception large enough to absorb Martin, and both teams are fairly close to the tax threshold, so they’d have to send out matching salary. Washington has the additional burden of a hard cap. The only expiring contract the Wizards have that’s greater than the minimum salary and doesn’t require the player’s consent for a trade is the team’s deal with Andre Miller, who makes $4.625MM this season and has recently fallen out of the rotation. The expiring contracts for the Mavs are all minimum-salary deals, except the ones for Tyson Chandler and Rajon Rondo, players the team will almost certainly keep.
Western Notes: Malone, Howard, Clippers
Former Kings coach Michael Malone made a second visit to Minnesota to speak with Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor after Flip Saunders invited Malone to observe the team for a while last month, as TNT’s David Aldridge reports amid his Morning Tip column for NBA.com. Aldridge speculates that Saunders, serving in a dual role as coach and president of basketball operations, is eyeing Malone as a potential replacement as coach for whenever Saunders decides to concentrate on his executive role. Malone is also a rumored candidate for the Magic’s head coaching job. Here’s more from around the Western Conference:
- Dwight Howard says he was given a timetable of six to eight weeks for recovery from the right knee swelling that’s kept him out of action since January 23rd, according to Jenny Dial Creech of the Houston Chronicle. The Rockets announced this past Wednesday that he’d miss at least a month, though team doctor Walt Lowe says there isn’t a specific time frame for his return, other than that he’ll be back this season, Creech writes.
- The Clippers are unlikely to make a 10-day signing before the All-Star break, as Dan Woike of the Orange County Register hears (Twitter link). The team has reportedly spoken with Sebastian Telfair about a potential deal.
- The Rockets have recalled rookies Clint Capela and Nick Johnson from the D-League, the team announced (on Twitter). It was assignment No. 4 for Capela and the third D-League stint for Johnson, as our assignments/recalls log shows. Johnson is averaging 10.7 minutes per game in 17 NBA appearances, while Capela has seen only 18 total minutes with the big club.
- Al-Farouq Aminu has given the Mavericks the best dollar-for-dollar production of any player on the roster, opines Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com, arguing that the minimum-salary signee has excelled doing many of the same duties Shawn Marion did last year.
Timberwolves Open To Trading Mo Williams
3:07pm: Charlotte and Minnesota talked about a deal that would send Williams and Troy Daniels to the Hornets, but that conversation stalled within the past few days, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports (Twitter link).
FEBRUARY 9TH, 1:10pm: The Hornets are also a likely suitor for Williams, Wolfson tweets, adding that while he believes the Wolves will trade Williams, no deal is close.
JANUARY 30TH, 3:18pm: The Cavs, Clippers and Heat are among the teams to watch regarding Williams, according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 Twin Cities, adding that there’s a “small chance” that the Pistons become involved (Twitter link). The return Minnesota would receive for Williams would be “minimal,” Wolfson also says.
11:49am: Rival teams believe the Wolves are making Mo Williams available to potential trade partners willing to relinquish a draft pick, reports Marc Stein of ESPN.com (Twitter link). Williams is indeed available, according to Jon Krawczynski of The Associated Press (on Twitter). Still, a source told Sean Deveney of The Sporting News that there’s “almost zero chance” that Minnesota makes any deal this season, given the limited market for its veterans, as Deveney wrote earlier this morning.
The source who spoke with Deveney referred to the long-term financial commitments to some of those vets as stumbling blocks, but Williams is on a $3.75MM deal that only covers this season. Many executives and scouts who spoke with Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck for a December report identified Williams and teammate Thaddeus Young as likely trade candidates. Young has a player option worth almost $9.972MM for next season, and Krawczynski doesn’t get the sense that the Timberwolves want to trade Kevin Martin, Nikola Pekovic or perhaps Young, as the AP scribe wrote in his tweet.
Williams, a 12th-year veteran, has been starting in place of the injured Ricky Rubio, though the team does have lottery pick Zach LaVine and 10-day signee Lorenzo Brown in reserve. Williams’ 6.4 assists per game are his most since the 2010/11 season, and his 12.5 points per game represent a bounceback from his 9.7 PPG scoring average for the Blazers last season, the first time he hadn’t averaged double figures in points since his rookie year. Still, the now 32-year-old Williams wanted to return to Portland this past summer, and there was reportedly mutual interest in a deal with the Mavs before they signed Jameer Nelson instead.
Kings, Quincy Miller To Talk Rest-Of-Season Deal
The Kings and Quincy Miller plan to engage in negotiations after the All-Star break about a deal that covers the rest of the season, league sources told Shams Charania of RealGM. The forward’s second 10-day deal expired Sunday, so the Kings will either have to agree to a contract for the balance of the season or leave him in free agency.
Sacramento has 14 players already signed through season’s end, as our roster counts show, so a new deal with Miller would limit the team’s flexibility. The Kings are one of the most active teams in trade talks, with rumors surrounding Nik Stauskas, Derrick Williams, Jason Thompson, Ramon Sessions, so it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see the club wait until after the trade deadline to strike any deal with Miller, though that’s just my speculation. The team is also reportedly in talks with George Karl, who coached Miller in Denver, about taking over the head coaching job.
Miller, whom Kings GM Pete D’Alessandro drafted 38th overall when he was Nuggets GM in 2012, has seen 10.2 minutes per game in six appearances for Sacramento. He’ll represent the affiliate of the Kings in the forthcoming D-League All-Star Game.