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Offseason Outlook: Oklahoma City Thunder
Guaranteed Contracts
- Kevin Durant ($20,158,622)
- Russell Westbrook ($16,744,218)
- Serge Ibaka ($12,350,000)
- Dion Waiters ($5,138,430)
- Steve Novak ($3,750,001)
- Nick Collison ($3,750,000)
- Anthony Morrow ($3,344,000)
- Jeremy Lamb ($3,034,356)
- D.J. Augustin ($3,000,000)
- Steven Adams ($2,279,040)
- Perry Jones III ($2,038,206)
- Mitch McGary ($1,463,040)
- Andre Roberson ($1,210,800)
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- None
Options
- None
Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- Enes Kanter ($11,389,348) — $7,471,412 qualifying offer
- Kyle Singler ($2,725,003) — $2,725,003 qualifying offer1
Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- None
Other Cap Holds
- No. 14 pick ($1,684,600)
- (Josh Huestis $950,200)2
- (Derek Fisher $947,276)3
Draft Picks
- 1st Round (14th overall)
- 2nd Round (48th overall)
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $78,260,713
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $0
- Options: $0
- Cap Holds: $17,696,427
- Total: $95,957,140
The last day of Kevin Durant‘s contract is still more than a year off, but the Thunder brass has been dropping hints for months that it already feels the pressure. The calendar year of 2015 has been the most tumultuous for the Oklahoma City organization since the James Harden trade in 2012. The team dealt away Reggie Jackson and two future first-round picks in trades that brought back Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters, among others, and took the team over the luxury tax threshold. The Thunder replaced coach Scott Brooks after nearly seven seasons with NBA coaching neophyte Billy Donovan. And injuries that cost Durant, Russell Westbrook, Serge Ibaka and others significant time left the team out of the playoffs for the first time since the franchise’s first season in Oklahoma City.
Still, the summer ahead allows GM Sam Presti to take a breath, if he chooses. Durant’s broken right foot is healing, the trades the team made during the season strengthened the team’s supporting cast, and no one on the roster can elect unrestricted free agency this year. Presti could have the same 15 players who ended the season on the roster back for opening night of the 2015/16 season if he wants to. It seems more likely there will be at least a slight degree of turnover, if for no reason other than the presence of this year’s No. 14 overall pick in the team’s quiver.
The Thunder aren’t a typical lottery team, so they’re as apt as any to value prospects who are ready to contribute immediately. So, raw talents like Texas center Myles Turner and Kansas small forward Kelly Oubre, both of whom have decent chances to be available when the 14th pick comes around, don’t appear to be fits for Oklahoma City. Arizona small forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is a more tempting possibility as a defensive-minded complement to Waiters if the Thunder is confident that Hollis-Jefferson can swing over to shooting guard. Still, neither Waiters nor Hollis-Jefferson is a strong three-point shooter, so that would invite defenders to clog the lane for Durant and Westbrook. Kentucky two-guard Devin Booker would give the team plenty of outside shooting, but he’ll probably go off the board a few picks before the Thunder would have a chance to grab him.
Perhaps the choice who makes the most sense is Notre Dame point guard Jerian Grant. He was a passable three-point shooter in college, knocking down 35.7% of his attempts in his first three years before he slumped to 31.6% this year. Moreover, he’s an NBA-ready point guard with four years of college under his belt who can score, as his 17.1 points per game across his junior and senior seasons demonstrates. The Thunder are set at backup point guard with D.J. Augustin, but Grant, at 6’5″ with a 6’7.5″ wingspan, would be a fit alongside Westbrook in two point guard sets. Our Eddie Scarito has the Thunder going with another point guard, Murray State sophomore Cameron Payne, in the Hoops Rumors Mock Draft.
The Thunder’s decision about whom to draft may well involve more work than the one surrounding their most notable free agent. Presti has made it obvious that he wants to retain Kanter, and so it appears Oklahoma City is willing to pay a premium to make it happen. A max offer from another team would probably make Presti think twice, but it still seems likely that the Thunder would match to keep a center who put up 18.7 points and 11.0 rebounds in just 31.1 minutes per game across 26 appearances after the trade that brought him to Oklahoma City. That’s a small sample size, and his defensive shortcomings are profound. Still, offensive production like that at the center position has long made front office personnel salivate. The Thunder would probably target a deal like the four-year, $48MM extension the Magic signed this past fall with Nikola Vucevic, who similarly excels at scoring and rebounding while playing subpar defense. Vucevic hadn’t displayed the knack for scoring before this season that his fellow native of Switzerland did in his time with the Thunder, so that may be the difference that ultimately drives up Kanter’s value.
The Thunder have reason to match even a max offer since, with commitments for next season that already take them well past the projected $67.1MM salary cap, they wouldn’t have means to replace Kanter with another comparable free agent, as The Oklahoman’s Darnell Mayberry recently noted. The same logic applies to Kyle Singler, Mayberry argued, though surely Singler won’t be drawing interest for the max. A logical limit, probably somewhere around the equivalent of the $5.464MM non-taxpayer’s mid-level exception, surely exists to the Thunder’s willingness to pay Singler to return. Even that would probably be too much for a player who Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus/Minus and ESPN’s Real Plus/Minus indicate is a minus on both ends of the floor. He’s nonetheless done enough to stick on the court as a rotation player and occasional starter during his three NBA seasons, and he has value as a floor spacer, but that duty could fall to Steve Novak if Singler receives an offer from elsewhere that the Thunder feel compelled to pass on.
Still, the Thunder would like to re-sign Singler, and that makes it tougher to envision the team finding room on the roster to sign Josh Huestis, last year’s first round pick, whom the Thunder stashed in the D-League as part of an unprecedented arrangement. Huestis isn’t making a fuss about the idea of staying with the Thunder’s D-League affiliate for one more year, and even if he did, he’d have little leverage. The worst-case scenario for the Thunder is that he leaves their D-League team for a more lucrative deal overseas and develops there, but Oklahoma City can control his NBA rights in perpetuity if it wants to.
If Huestis does sign with the Thunder this summer, that will almost certainly require the Thunder to trade one of their 13 players with fully guaranteed salaries for next season. A majority of Hoops Rumors readers who voted in a recent poll said the Thunder need major changes around Durant if they’re to win a title next season, but making moves that significantly upgrade the team is easier said than done. Westbrook would presumably be untouchable, but the Thunder could gauge the market for what it would bear in a sign-and-trade involving Kanter, to see if other teams still believe Waiters can live up to having been a No. 4 overall pick, or even to see what Ibaka would fetch. Some combination of those three would make a pretty tempting offer for a star if one became available, but no marquee names seem to be on the block at this point.
A smaller-scale trade is much more likely, though Waiters, who struggles on defense and with his outside shot, bears watching if there is indeed a team still enamored with his potential. Possible trade candidates include Mitch McGary, who was effective in the meager playing time he saw, especially on the boards. In spite of McGary’s 16.6 PER this past season, the Thunder would have difficulty finding more playing time for him this coming season if they re-sign Kanter. There’d be little use for Novak, especially if Singler returns, but Novak remains a dead-eye three-point shooter who’s going into the final year of his contract. Perry Jones III has barely seen playing time over his three years with Oklahoma City, but he’s a former first-round pick, and he, too, is entering a contract year.
Jones, along with Lamb and Waiters, is one of three members of the Thunder up for rookie scale extensions this offseason, but only Waiters will likely merit any consideration for one. That’s still a tricky proposition for Oklahoma City, which doesn’t know whether it will still be building around Durant come 2016/17, the season that an extension for Waiters would kick in. Committing money for Waiters would stand to complicate matters if Durant leaves and the Thunder are trying to retool. Waiters’ trade value is probably as low as it has been since he entered the league, so the Thunder could get a discount if they’re high on his potential, but Waiters may well hesitate to bet against himself like that.
Presti has to think about a future without Durant even as he does everything in his power to keep the four-time scoring champ. The team’s moves of the past several months signal his thinking along that dual track, as the talent he’s added has chiefly been younger and still developing, as Kanter exemplifies. The big man can boost the team’s title chances for next season and help in the long run, with or without Durant, if the Thunder re-sign him this summer. The stakes are incredibly high for the Thunder next season, but barring the emergence of a superstar trade candidate on another team, they’ve done just about all they can to set themselves up for success while still preparing for the worst.
Cap Footnotes
1 — The cap hold for Singler would be $2,071,000 if the Thunder elect not to tender a qualifying offer.
2 — The team may remove the cap hold for Huestis, the 29th pick in the 2014 draft, if both sides agree in writing that they will not sign a deal during the 2015/16 season.
3 — See our glossary entry on cap holds for an explanation why Fisher technically remains on the books.
The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.
Latest On Tom Thibodeau
MONDAY, 4:02pm: People around the league who look up to Thibodeau increasingly express worry that the Bulls indeed plan to wait for the three NBA vacancies to fill up and then simply fire Thibs, tweets Marc Stein of ESPN.com.
SATURDAY, 2:58pm: The Bulls are determined to hold on to Thibodeau until the remaining coaching vacancies have been filled, meaning that if they then fire him, it would likely leave him out of coaching for the 2015/16 season, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reports.
THURSDAY, 2:39pm: The Magic’s interest in Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau has been overstated, a source tells K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune (Twitter links). Thibodeau, whose seemingly rocky relationship with Bulls management appears poised to result in a split this summer, has long been linked to Orlando’s vacancy. However, recent reports that the Magic would be willing to pay him $7-9MM a year and that the Orlando job is Thibodeau’s for the taking are off-base, Johnson hears, as is the notion that the team is prepared to give the Bulls compensation for the right to hire him. The Bulls are widely expected to demand assets in return for letting Thibodeau out of his contract, which runs two more seasons, and a recent report indicated that the Magic would likely be willing to give up one or two second-round picks for the right to hire Thibs.
Still, the Magic may indeed still wind up talking to Thibodeau at some point, Johnson adds. As of Wednesday, no team had yet contacted the Bulls to request to interview Thibodeau, a league source told Ken Berger of CBSSports.com. The Bulls haven’t spoken with Fred Hoiberg, reportedly the team’s top choice to replace Thibodeau if Chicago indeed parts ways with its coach, the source also said to Berger. Alvin Gentry, another apparent front-runner for the would-be Bulls opening, reportedly has strong interest in the Pelicans job, which he interviewed for Monday. The Bulls want to set up a clear plan of succession before starting talks about what sort of compensation they’d want from other teams in exchange for letting them hire Thibodeau, Berger wrote last week.
Thibodeau isn’t about to quit and simply give up the nearly $9MM left on his contract, as Johnson recently observed, and if the Bulls are determined to make Thibodeau go away, they likely have a distinct financial motivation to work out a deal with another team. Most NBA coaching contracts, including those the Bulls have given out in the past, have a set-off clause that would absolve the team of whatever it owes the coach if he takes another job at an equal or greater salary during the term of the pact, Berger explains. So, if Thibodeau can find another team willing to pay him at least $4-5MM a year, the Bulls probably won’t owe him any money, according to Berger. The Nuggets are “not an option” for Thibodeau, Berger also wrote, apparently leaving Orlando and New Orleans as the only teams with existing vacancies left to bid.
LeBron Wants To Keep Thompson On Cavs
LeBron James made his thoughts clear about soon-to-be restricted free agent Tristan Thompson‘s future in Cleveland, telling beat writers that the power forward “should probably be a Cavalier the rest of his career,” notes Dave McMenamin of ESPN.com (Twitter link). Thompson and James both employ Rich Paul of Klutch Sports as their agent, and James clearly has an influence on the Cavs.
Extension talks between Thompson and the Cavs broke down as the deadline for the sides to sign one approached this past fall. Thompson reportedly turned down an offer worth $52MM over four years from the Cavs. Cleveland signed fellow big man and James confidant Anderson Varejao to an extension the same day that talks ended with Thompson. Uncertainty over just how the salary cap would look apparently helped discussions unravel with the former No. 4 overall pick, but neither side left the negotiating table with hard feelings, according to Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio. The union in March issued a final rejection of the league’s proposal to phase in salary cap increases, ostensibly bringing more clarity to bear for when Thompson and the Cavs can pick up negotiations this summer.
Cleveland appears set to zoom past the projected $67.1MM cap and $81.6MM tax threshold if it is to keep its team together next season, though owner Dan Gilbert hasn’t signaled that he wants any belt-tightening. Rival executives thought Thompson would end up with an extension for between $10-12MM a year while he and the Cavs were talking this past fall, as Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reported during the season, but Thompson has appeared more valuable than ever in the playoffs. He’s averaging 3.9 offensive rebounds in 34.6 minutes per game in the postseason, having inherited a starting role following Kevin Love‘s injury. The Cavs appear to have meshed better with Thompson at the four than they did with Love.
Steve Kyler of Basketball Insiders figures Thompson’s camp will start talks with a request for the max this summer. Kyler also writes in that same NBA AM piece that agents commonly believe that teams will be more willing than usual to give max and near-max offers this summer, the last before major escalation in the salary cap. So, it seems there’s a decent chance other teams will drive up Thompson’s price point with fat offer sheets. A further complication is the future of Love, who’s said he’ll opt in. Whether he does or he doesn’t, he wouldn’t be tied to Cleveland for more than another year, putting pressure on Cleveland to retain at least one of its top-line power forwards unless Love opts out and commits to a new long-term deal.
Update On Prominent Draft-And-Stash Prospects
The NBA Finals are nearly upon us and full attention is soon to turn to the NBA draft. There are sure to be many players drafted who will continue their careers overseas as they develop more with the hopes of joining an NBA team in the coming years. Meanwhile, what about those past draft picks? Who might be ready to come over next season and potentially lock down an NBA roster spot? Let’s take a look at 10 recent first-round and high second-round picks, how their seasons are going and what kind of chance they have of being in the NBA next year.
Alex Abrines (G/F) — 2013 pick No. 32: Rights owned by the Thunder
Abrines dramatically improved his shooting this season for Barcelona of Spain. The 21-year old has put up 48-48-94 splits during ACB play. He’s hit 52 of 109 three-point attempts this season over 26 games. However, during Euroleague play, he was just 29 of 85 (34.1%) from deep. He was named to the ACB All Young Players Team for the second consecutive season and is clearly a rising star in the top European domestic league. It’s all great news for OKC except for one small problem: Abrines signed a four-year contract extension last week that could keep him in Spain until 2019. The silver lining is that his contract includes NBA buyouts after each season. It’s likely we won’t see Abrines in the NBA for another season or two as he should get a much bigger role in Barcelona’s rotation next year, but rest assured he has a very bright future that will include the NBA at some point.
Nemanja Bjelica (F) — 2010 pick No. 35: Rights owned by the Timberwolves
Bjelica had a career year for Fenerbahce of Turkey, leading his team to the Euroleague Final 4 and being named Euroleague MVP. At 27 years old, this might be the time for Bjelica to make the NBA jump after being rumored to do so over the past couple of seasons. He’s a skilled combo forward who’s a solid rebounder (8.2 in 26 minutes per game across all leagues) with three-point range (46.4% in Turkish TBL play). Bjelica has one more year on his contract but it’s hard to believe he could improve his stock any further, and he could very likely be a solid rotation piece on the rebuilding Timberwolves next year. The timing is right, but it might come down to whether or not the price is right.
Bogdan Bogdanovic (SG) — 2014 pick No. 27: Rights owned by the Suns
Bogdanovic is a teammate of Bjelica’s with Fenerbahce and has also been integral to their success this season. He signed a four-year deal with the Turkish team this year after spending the last few seasons with Partizan. He has dramatically improved his three-point shot to the tune of 43.1% in TBL play and was named Euroleague Rising Star for the second consecutive season. His contract includes NBA outs starting in 2016 and upon being drafted he was expected to stay in Europe until then. However, given his continued success, it’s quite possible that the Suns make a run at him this offseason and at least see how much it would cost to buy him out early.
DeAndre Daniels (SF) — 2014 pick No. 37: Rights owned by the Raptors
Fresh off a national championship with Connecticut, Daniels moved to Australia and joined the Perth Wildcats. He missed three weeks early in the season with an elbow injury but returned to help his team reach the playoffs. He put up 14.8 points and 7.3 rebounds per contest, but his shooting numbers left much to be desired. Daniels is an excellent summer league candidate who will need to show that his shooting woes were mostly a result of the elbow injury. If he can prove himself there, he could become a cheap reinforcement for the Raptors next season.
Josh Huestis (SF) — 2014 pick No. 29: Rights owned by the Thunder
The Stanford grad is best known for being the 29th overall pick because he agreed to spend the season in the D-League, a fact that sparked great controversy after the draft. The OKC Blue were said to be molding him into a “3 and D” type player and while the defense was there, the three-point shooting (31.6%) has been slower to come along. Huestis will undoubtedly join the Thunder’s summer league team but will likely have a tough time finding an open roster spot with OKC as the Thunder already have 13 players under contract for next season. Plus, there are restricted free agents Enes Kanter and Kyle Singler to consider, and that forthcoming lottery pick.
Livio Jean-Charles (F) — 2013 pick No. 28: Rights owned by the Spurs
Jean-Charles is a raw forward who plays for ASVEL Villeurbanne, the French team owned by Spurs point guard Tony Parker. He missed the entire 2013/14 season after undergoing knee surgery and returned this year to mixed results. He played limited minutes off the bench and didn’t shoot particularly well in the process. He has no three-point range for someone who’s supposed to be a combo forward, which would seem to limit his NBA potential, given his skinny frame. He should get a look at summer league, but it’s likely that he’ll return to France for at least another season.
Nikola Jokic (F/C) — 2014 pick No. 41: Rights owned by the Nuggets
Jokic is a 6’11”, 250-pound brute who managed to dominate the very tough Adriatic League while leading a team basically filled with young prospects. He finished with 15.4 points and 9.3 rebounds per game for Serbia’s KK Mega Vizura en route to winning MVP honors at just 20 years old. There have been rumors throughout the season that the Nuggets are already working on a deal to sign the Serbian prospect prior to summer league. He could eventually form quite the frontcourt tandem with rising star Jusuf Nurkic.
Tibor Pleiss (C) — 2010 pick No. 31: Rights owned by the Jazz
Pleiss is a 7’2″ monster in the middle who played this past season as a teammate of Alex Abrines with Barcelona of Spain. Pleiss left a starting role with Spain’s Laboral Kutxa to come off the bench and so his numbers aren’t a very fair reflection of his talents. In ACB play, he shot 65% from the field and 88% from the free throw line. He was acquired by Utah from Oklahoma City in the Kanter trade and there were rumors shortly thereafter that the Jazz were trying to buy him out of his contract. It’s safe to say that he has a place in the Jazz’s future, though the apparent mutual dissatisfaction between Pleiss and Barcelona that reportedly fueled talks between Utah and Pleiss earlier this year is rumored to have resulted in a different outcome. Barcelona is expected to convey him to Germany’s Bayern Munich, according to Nikos Varlas of Eurohoops.net.
Dario Saric (PF) — 2014 pick No. 12: Rights owned by the 76ers
Saric moved from Cibona of Croatia to Turkey’s Anadolu Efes this season and is averaging 10.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists in 24.2 minutes per game over 54 contests. He was named Euroleague MVP of the Month in November while also picking up his second consecutive FIBA Europe Young Men’s Player of the Year Award. Saric’s contract doesn’t have a NBA out until 2016, but the Sixers have been in constant contact with him, and he won’t dismiss the idea that he might play for Philadelphia next season. His past has been riddled with contract controversy, so it would be quite a feat for Philly to make that happen. Even so, Saric is improving rapidly and, whether he comes over in 2015 or 2016, he figures to be a big piece of the 76ers’ future.
Tomas Satoransky (G) — 2012 pick No. 32: Rights owned by the Wizards
Satoransky is a 6’7″ combo guard and yet another player for Barcelona. Last summer, Satoransky refused to play in summer league for the Wizards unless the team signed him to the regular roster. He failed to receive the money he sought from Washington and signed for two years with Barcelona instead. He excelled this season, with shooting splits of 58-49-81, and he has the ability to fill up the stat sheet. It’ll be interesting to see if he’ll change his tune and join Washington this summer, but regardless, he’s just 23 and another year with one of the top international teams will only aid his improvement.
Atlantic Notes: Nets Draft, Stevens, Jackson
The Celtics and Sixers account for one-sixth of the 60 total draft choices this year, as we pointed out last week (Twitter link), but the rest of the Atlantic Division isn’t so replete with picks. The Nets have two picks, though they won’t be picking as highly as they would have in the first round had they not allowed the Hawks to switch picks under the terms of the Joe Johnson trade. The Knicks, who fell in the lottery, and the Raptors only have one selection apiece. Here’s more on the draft and other matters from the Atlantic:
- NetsDaily’s Reed Wallach examines needs the Nets can fill through the draft, writing that Brooklyn would be likely to use a higher pick on a point guard if the team indeed trades up as GM Billy King said he would try to do. The Nets have the 29th and 41st picks.
- Danny Ainge is firmly in control of the draft process for the Celtics, yet Brad Stevens takes an interest and was more engaged than many of his counterparts on other NBA teams at the draft combine, as Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald examines.
- Knicks president Phil Jackson expressed fond wishes for J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Pablo Prigioni (on Twitter), all conference finals participants whom the Knicks traded away this season, citing his desire for them to find their “comfort zones.” That led Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com to wonder why they couldn’t find comfort zones on Jackson’s Knicks.
Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Clippers
Guaranteed Contracts
- Chris Paul ($21,468,696)
- Blake Griffin ($18,907,725)
- J.J. Redick ($7,085,000)
- Spencer Hawes ($5,543,725)
- C.J. Wilcox ($1,159,680)
- (Carlos Delfino $650,000)1
- (Jordan Farmar $510,922)2
- (Miroslav Raduljica $252,042)3
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
- Jamal Crawford ($5,675,000)4
- Matt Barnes ($3,542,500)5
- Jordan Hamilton ($1,015,421)
- Lester Hudson ($1,015,421)6
Options
- None
Restricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- None
Unrestricted Free Agents/Cap Holds
- DeAndre Jordan ($17,160,185)
- Austin Rivers ($3,110,796)
- Glen Davis ($947,276)
- Dahntay Jones ($947,276)
- Hedo Turkoglu ($947,276)
- Ekpe Udoh ($947,276)
Draft Picks
- None
Cap Outlook
- Guaranteed Salary: $58,077,790
- Non-Guaranteed Salary: $8,748,342
- Options: $0
- Cap Holds: $24,060,085
- Total: $90,886,217
This looked like the year the Clippers would make that next step forward. They were one win away from their first-ever Western Conference Finals berth, but they whiffed on all three chances to grab that victory. Instead, the team hit its head against the same ceiling it has repeatedly, losing in the conference semifinals for the third year out of four. What’s worse is that the specter of losing DeAndre Jordan in free agency presents a clear path in which they could get significantly worse for next season, and there’s no readily apparent way to get much better.
No, a return to the lottery isn’t in store, given the continued presence of both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, both signed through 2016/17 with player options for 2017/18. Yet with more than $58MM guaranteed against a projected $67.1MM cap, and more than $6.7MM tied up in non-guaranteed salary to key contributors Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes, the Clippers would have no cap flexibility to sign an adequate replacement should Jordan bolt. The former 35th overall pick has spoken in glowing terms about Doc Rivers, the coach who took him from playing only 24.5 minutes per game in 2012/13 to an All-NBA Third Team selection in the span of two years, but Jordan has said the Clippers aren’t necessarily the favorites to sign him. Indeed, Jordan has expressed through back channels that he will have extreme interest in joining his home-state Mavericks this summer, multiple sources told Tim MacMahon of ESPNDallas.com last month.
The Clippers appear ready to make him a five-year maximum-salary offer. Jordan has said he won’t sign a one-year deal to try to reap an even greater payday when the salary cap escalates sharply in the summer of 2016, so ostensibly the Clippers can tempt him with the fifth year and 3% higher raises that only they can offer him. Of course, Jordan never said he wouldn’t sign a two- or three-year deal to take advantage of the salary cap when it’s projected to rise into the $100MMs. The financial advantage the Clippers have wouldn’t be as pronounced in that scenario. It could well come down to comfort rather than money. While Jordan’s affection for Rivers is obvious, he’s rumored to have had a falling out with Paul, though teammate Dahntay Jones says that isn’t true.
A Jordan departure would carry a silver lining of sorts for the Clippers. Removing the league’s leading rebounder and All-Defensive First Team center from the roster would leave the Clippers without a reasonable chance to break through in a way they didn’t this year, and so it would likely goose Rivers into more extensive retooling with an eye on the summer of 2016. They could try to trade Crawford’s expiring, partially guaranteed contract for a future first-round pick or a promising young player on a rookie scale contract. They could explore what sort of bounty they might get in return for selling high on Redick, who’s coming off the best season of his career, knowing that he’d be 32 by the time they could spend freely again. They could try their luck at using the full mid-level again after blowing it on Spencer Hawes last year. None of those approaches would necessarily bear fruit, but as long as the Clippers didn’t clutter their 2016/17 books too much, missing on Jordan would allow them the chance to go after Kevin Durant and other star 2016 free agents.
Jordan is, without a doubt, one of the top centers in the game, but he’s no Durant. Maxing out Jordan this summer would mean he’d be making in the neighborhood of $20.5MM in 2016/17, and coupled with the more than $20.1MM that Griffin has coming and the nearly $22.9MM the team committed to Paul, and the Clippers would have about $63.5MM against the preliminary projection of an $89MM salary cap for three players alone, never mind the money on the books for Redick and Hawes. That would make it almost impossible for the Clippers to sign Durant to his estimated $25MM maximum salary.
The effects of a max deal for Jordan would be even more immediate, since it would essentially force the Clippers to either pay the tax or unload a key member of the team, like Redick or Crawford. A slight chance exists that the Clippers could dodge the tax apron, the line $4MM above the tax threshold, but it’s more likely the Clips would zoom above the apron, too. That means the team would be unable to acquire a player via sign-and-trade or spend more than the $3.376MM taxpayer’s mid-level amount on the starting salary for any free agent from another team. Just crossing the tax threshold carries with it stricter salary-matching rules for trades, never mind the apron.
Regardless of whether the Clippers sign Jordan or not, they’re already hamstrung when it comes to Austin Rivers. They can’t sign him for a starting salary any more than $3,110,796, which is the value of the rookie scale team option that the Pelicans declined before the season. That rule is in place so teams can’t try to get around the rookie scale and give their recent first-round picks more money as an enticement to stick around for the long term, but it doesn’t matter that the Clippers had nothing to do with that option decision. It still applies, even though Rivers was traded twice this season. It wouldn’t matter if the Clippers wanted to sign him using cap room, the mid-level, or any form of exception. That $3,110,796 figure is as high as they can go.
Of course, that doesn’t mean any other team will want to exercise its right to pay him more than that. Rivers had his moments in the playoffs, when he shot 37.1% from three-point range, but he was still a net negative during the postseason according to Basketball-Reference’s Box Plus/Minus metric, just as that statistic suggests he has been during all four regular seasons of his NBA career. Doc Rivers unsurprisingly wants to re-sign his son, and there is a degree of promise left for the former 10th overall pick who won’t turn 23 until August 1st. Still, there won’t be a clamor for his services from competing teams, and even $3,110,796 may well be too rich for the Clippers’ tastes, especially considering the other salary constraints they face.
The perception of nepotism concerned Doc Rivers before GM Dave Wohl and a pair of assistant coaches talked him into trading for his son. Doc Rivers suggested that Wohl had worked to convince him for months, dating back to last summer. Yet for myriad other reasons, Doc Rivers might be wise to give Wohl or someone else the final say in the front office. Rivers succeeded with the Redick sign-and-trade in his first weeks on the job, but he’s done little since to upgrade the talent on the roster, outside of the enhancements he’s made to Jordan and others through his coaching. Perhaps Rivers would be well-advised to concentrate on what he does best, better than just about anyone in the game, and simply coach while someone else handles player personnel. Owner Steve Ballmer just last summer gave Rivers a five-year deal worth more than $50MM to serve both as coach and president of basketball operations, but Rivers needn’t do two jobs for Ballmer to get his money’s worth. Both Wohl and assistant GM Gary Sacks have been at the controls before, and if the Clippers wanted to look elsewhere, the chance to work for the deep-pocketed Ballmer in a warm-weather glamour market with two incumbent superstars on the team would be appealing to just about any executive.
Still, it doesn’t seem like Rivers is going to be without his front office responsibilities anytime soon, and when it comes to keeping Jordan around, that’s probably an advantage for the Clippers. Whoever’s running the team will have to excel at building the team’s depth, or at least improve on the spartan supporting cast that’s there now. The placement of Paul, Griffin and Jordan on this year’s All-NBA Teams showed the Clippers’ core is as strong if not stronger than any other in the league. Paul could overcome his playoff demons, Jordan could make more free throws, and Griffin could challenge for the title of the best player in the league, and the Clippers could still fall short of a title if the team can’t fill a rotation with enough players worthy of staying on the floor.
Cap Footnotes
1 — The Clippers waived Delfino in August 2014 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next five seasons.
2 — The Clippers waived Farmar as part of a buyout deal in January and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next three seasons.
3 — The Clippers waived Raduljica in August 2014 and used the stretch provision to spread his remaining guaranteed salary over the next five seasons.
4 — Crawford’s salary is partially guaranteed for $1,500,000.
5 — Barnes’ salary is partially guaranteed for $1,000,000.
6 — Hudson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed if he remains under contract through July 15th.
The Basketball Insiders Salary Pages were used in the creation of this post.
Draft Notes: Rozier, Looney, Timberwolves
The NBA draft is just one month from tonight. The lottery and the combine are finished, so team workouts will be the main focus from now until draft night. Now that we know where every team will pick, we debuted our mock draft this weekend, and we’re continuing with our Prospect Profile series. Here’s more on the draft as the event starts to get close:
- Louisville point guard Terry Rozier has made a habit of overcoming the odds, and he didn’t disappoint in his workout with the Jazz this weekend, according to Utah vice president of player personnel Walt Perrin, as Carter Williams of the Deseret News examines. The Jazz were one of 17 teams scheduled to audition Rozier, Williams writes, a group that apparently includes the Rockets and Spurs.
- Kevon Looney added the Nets, Wizards, Jazz, Suns, Bulls, Cavs, Raptors, Hawks and Knicks to the list of the teams he interviewed with at the draft combine earlier this month, as the UCLA power forward revealed to Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. Looney is a raw prospect, but even though he feels he could have improved if he’d stayed in college, he tells Medina that he’s confident he can also develop at the NBA level.
- Connecticut point guard Ryan Boatright, LSU power forward Jordan Mickey, Texas combo forward Jonathan Holmes and Louisville swingman Wayne Blackshear are among the players tentatively scheduled to work out Friday for the Timberwolves, reports Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities (Twitter link).
Prospect Profile: Frank Kaminsky
In an era when many of basketball’s top prospects are “one-and-done,” Frank Kaminsky stands out. He was only a three-star recruit coming out of Benet Academy in Illinois and despite playing a limited role in his first two years with Wisconsin, he metamorphosed into one of the nation’s top players. Through his first two seasons as a Badger, he averaged less than nine minutes per game. Kaminsky has often said he was a bit immature in his early years in college, and often operated without a clear vision, as Ben Hamilton of SI.com outlined in a piece earlier this year. Once he figured it out, the guy known as Frank the Tank emerged as one of college basketball’s most unlikely stars. With more playing time, the 7-footer’s game improved and later evolved.
Kaminsky took a big step forward in his junior season. He averaged 13.9 points per game and grabbed 6.3 rebounds per game. He also led the Badgers to the NCAA Final Four to cap his breakout. Kaminsky entertained the idea of entering last season’s draft, as Chad Ford of ESPN.com (Insider subscription required) relays, but the big man admits that he wasn’t quite ready for the NBA at that point. “I knew I needed to get better. I wanted to go back to school, finish my degree and do more research by watching NBA basketball so I could see what I needed to get better at,” Kaminsky said. “It was like a free year to study for your final exam.“
It turned out to be a great decision to wait another year. He entered his senior season as the 2015 preseason Big Ten Player of the Year and preseason AP All-American. He somehow managed to surpass expectations with an unworldly campaign. In other words, Kaminsky did everything for Wisconsin this past season — and then was rewarded for it. He led the Badgers in points per game (18.8), rebounds per game (8.2), assists (103), blocks (57), field goal percentage (55%), 3-point field goal percentage (.416), free throws (156) and free throw attempts (200). He was the only NCAA Division I player to average at least 17 points, eight rebounds, two assists and 1.5 blocks per game. He propelled Wisconsin to its first national championship game since 1941. For his efforts, he was named National Player of the Year by The Associated Press and captured a handful of other honors.
There’s a strong possibility that the next reward for Kaminsky is at least a top-15 selection in the draft. One NBA GM told The Journal Times’ Gery Woelfel that Kaminsky could go as high as sixth in the draft. Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress ranks Kaminsky No. 10, but he is the No. 14 overall player according to Ford (Insider subscription required).
Kaminsky has superb size with a frame that has filled out well over time and would improve more with added weight. Kaminsky will never be confused with an explosive athlete, but he is a very coordinated big man who runs the floor well. What makes Kaminsky a unique prospect, according to Givony in his profile of the player, is his versatility and offensive efficiency. Simply put, he’s a matchup problem for many because of his size and how good he is at shooting. While he played mostly center in college, Kaminsky sees himself as a stretch four in the NBA, Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders writes. “[I’m] turning myself into a four,” Kaminsky told Pincus. “In college, I played the five for so long. I know I can play the four. I just have to pick up the nuances. The NBA values big guys that can stretch the floor.”
Kaminsky added that he is confident he can transition successfully to power forward. “I played against four in college, because that’s who was guarding me. I know what I’m able to do,” he said. “The college game is obviously different than the NBA game. It also makes it easier that the shot clock is 11 seconds shorter. There’s not as much running around.”
Kaminsky has interviewed with the Pistons and met with the Bucks last week. He met with the Magic and Knicks, respectively, the week prior. A “sure thing” is impossible to find in any draft, and Kaminsky is no different. While he’s a very polished and mature player, because of his age (22) there is some belief he has already maximized his potential. Kaminsky, however, has said that he is looking forward to continuing to grow as a player with any team that selects him. There are no shortage of teams that seem like good fits for him, either. Miami, which owns the 10th pick, is looking for immediate help and Kaminsky’s maturity would present an intriguing addition. If he’s still on the board at No. 12, it would be logical for the Jazz to scoop him up because of their need for someone who can stretch the floor. The best fit, however, is likely the Suns, who will pick 13th. The Suns do not have a quality big man and their options are limited beyond Alex Len.
And-Ones: Thomas, Pistons, Mudiay
Isaiah Thomas said he was asked by Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge to name free agents he’d like to play with, Adam Himmelsbach of The Boston Globe reports. The exchange has made Thomas, who has been vocal about his desire for starting in the past, feel like he is part of the Celtics’ future, Himmelsbach adds. “Danny said if there’s any free agent out there I’m interested in, to let him know,” Thomas said. “That has me excited. For him to ask for my input means a lot, because it means I’m definitely, right now, a part of the future, and they also value your word and what you think about the game of basketball. It means a lot, and it’s a mutual respect we have. Now, hopefully, we can get a few guys.”
Thomas did not name any player specifically, but he said a big man is a top priority. “A defensive-minded player,” he told Himmelsbach. “It’d be nice to get one of those in the draft. A lot of the big men out there could definitely help us out. But I know Danny is always up to something.”
Here’s more from around the league:
- Pistons head coach and president of basketball operations Stan Van Gundy said the team will hire a full-time shooting coach by July, David Mayo of MLive.com writes. The Pistons ranked 27th out of 30 teams last season in field-goal percentage (43.2%), and also ranked 29th in free-throw percentage at 70.3%, as Mayo points out.
- The Jazz hosted Andrew Harrison, Terry Rozier, Vince Hunter, J.P. Tokoto, Treveon Graham and Aaron White in a pre-draft workout, and Walt Perrin, vice president of player personnel, said he wasn’t too surprised with the results, Melissa Yack writes in a piece for the Deseret News. “I thought Terry played — I know Terry can shoot it, but I thought he shot it pretty well today,” Perrin said. “Other than that — Andrew maybe could have shot it a little better, but surprises no.”
- Stanley Johnson believes he can be an impactful and versatile defender in the league, Eric Pincus of Basketball Insiders writes. “In today’s day and age, it’s about defensive versatility. How many people you can guard and how well you can do it,” Johnson said. “I can guard fours. I can guard Draymond Green. I can guard Kawhi Leonard. I can guard Mike Conley — I can stay with him at least,” he continued. “You guard people in stints, I can definitely stint the minutes for sure.” In 38 games with Arizona, the small forward averaged 13.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, and played well defensively.
- The top four teams in the draft — the Wolves, Lakers, Sixers and Knicks — reached out to Emmanuel Mudiay‘s agents, but the guard who played last season in the Chinese Basketball Association likely won’t work out for them until early June, tweets SNY.tv’s Adam Zagoria, who cites a source.
- Boston College guard Olivier Hanlan worked out for the Spurs, and is hopeful he will be selected in the first round of the draft, Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe writes.