Adam Silver Talks League Strategy, Owners, All-Star Game
Commissioner Adam Silver sat down with Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com during this year’s MIT Sloan Conference to discuss the league and its surrounding environment. Hoops Rumors was among the media in attendance at the event.
The NBA is more popular now than ever before. Commissioner Adam Silver talked about a time when businessman looking to buy a franchise would tell him and former commissioner David Stern that they really wanted an NFL team, but none were available, so they’d settle for an NBA franchise. Now, nearly every prospective buyer has a singular focus on owning an NBA team.
There are clear differences between the owners of the different North American leagues. NBA owners are typically more open to innovation than those in the NFL. Silver wouldn’t talk at length about the other sports leagues, but he did admit that there may be something about the sport of basketball that attracts a “certain type of owner.” The NBA is more receptive to analytics than the typical NFL franchise. Silver said it’s because the league has “two generations of owners.” He calls one group the Leslie Alexander-types: those who used analytics outside of sports world to create their wealth. The other group consists of the Mark Cuban-types: those who grew up understanding the value of analytics and innovation.
The league’s adoption of social media has created relevance among the NBA owners, Silver said. Basketball is a team sport, but its players’ individualities popularize the league. “We have lots of content for fans [that the players provide],” Silver said.
Sending content directly to consumers carries the risk of presenting the wrong message. The league helps players manage their social media accounts at the rookie camps. Silver said the league is “a little bit more than laissez-faire,” adding that he “encourages [the players] to be authentic.”
That’s not to say the league doesn’t step in if a player missuses social media. ‘There are certain lines you can’t cross,” Silver said. “It’s not like you get sent to the principal’s office…but, we have a conversation with the player.” He added that “for the most part, we tell [the players] to have fun.”
Before the social media age, players who were in bigger markets had advantages when it came to marketing. Players can now reach a global audience regardless of where they play. “It’s an equalizer among markets,” Silver said. He noted that Kevin Durant had more money in endorsement deals than any player on the Warriors last season. According to Silver, marketing executives no longer urge players to choose the bigger city, instead, they tell the players that winning drives sales and popularity.
That’s a topic that played a role in recent CBA negotiations. There were discussions about axing the league’s maximum salary rule, something that would put pressure on the star players to take less because it would be hard to put together a winning team while using upwards of 70-80% of your cap on one star player. Imagine LeBron James as a free agent in a real free market; he theoretically could command nearly 100% of the cap.
Having the max contract keeps a harmonious relationship between NBA clubs and their star players. For example, the highest paid player on the Lakers isn’t going to gripe to ownership that the highest paid player on the Clippers is making more than him. With restrictions in place, teams are able to give a player the maximum and it won’t create hostility in the relationship.
The league wants to incentivise players to stay with their incumbent teams in free agency. The new CBA will implement the Designated Veteran contracts that will allow teams to pay their own players more than rival teams can. Durant’s decision to spurn Oklahoma City certainly played a role in the new role, but Silver was quick to say that Durant “didn’t do anything wrong.”
He’s right, but that doesn’t mean the league shouldn’t make changes. In fact, Silver thinks the league should be more innovative in regards to changing the rules. “Historically, we’ve been too conservative with making changes,” Silver said.
Change is hard for many people, including those in the basketball world. Many people opposed the Hack-A-Shaq rule that disincentivizes teams from fouling in the last two minutes of a game. Silver said that high school coaches would write him letters, pleading for him not to make the change for fear that high schoolers would no longer practice foul shots. Silvers responded the same way he does when players show concern: “Don’t take any of this for granted…the world is changing around us.”
Changes in the All-Star game are coming. Silver said Chris Paul reached out to him to try to find a solution that makes the game more competitive and the league intends to implement the changes by next season.
Something we won’t see: the league vetoing a trade. Silver was asked if he ever considers stepping in when one team is giving up too much or not enough in a transaction and he was firm in his response. “The answer is the league cannot” Silver said, while adding that all league trades get approved in terms of financials and players passing physicals. Silver was adamant that the league doesn’t “weigh in from a quantitive standpoint.”
Stay tuned to Hoops Rumors for more coverage from the MIT Sloan Conference.
Mike Dunleavy Diagnosed With Right Ankle Synovitis
Mike Dunleavy has been diagnosed with right ankle synovitis, the Hawks announced in a press release. Per the team’s injury report: “An MRI taken at the Emory Orthopaedics and Spine Center on Feb. 28th revealed the injury and a second opinion by Dr. Richard Ferkel of the Southern California Orthopedic Institute also confirmed the diagnosis.”
Dunleavy will be out for an undetermined length of time.
Dunleavy, who initially sought a buyout after being traded to Atlanta, has performed well under Mike Budenholzer. Dunleavy has averaged 5.9 points while shooting 44.2% on 3-pointers with the Hawks, receiving 16.2 MPG.
After tonight, Dunleavy will have missed the Hawks’ last four games.
Jarrett Jack To Miss 4-To-6 Weeks With Meniscus Tear
Jarrett Jack is expected to miss 4-to-6 weeks with a right lateral meniscus tear, the Pelicans announced in a press release. Jack, who signed a 10-day contract on February 24, appeared in two games with New Orleans, scoring six total points with five assists.
While the team hasn’t yet announced plans for Jack, GM Dell Demps has shown a propensity to waive injured players (Omri Casspi, Lance Stephenson) rather than use a short-handed roster. Jack was initially diagnosed with a torn right ACL on January 3, 2016, and has endured a difficult recovery ever since. From that point, Jack has been waived by the Nets, signed (and subsequently waived) by the Hawks, and signed with New Orleans.
Following the diagnosis, Jack tweeted “Would say frustrated but that word doesn’t even come close to doing my mood justice.” (Twitter link)
J.R. Smith Hopeful To Return In “10 Days To Two Weeks”
Cavs coach Tyronn Lue is hopeful J.R. Smith can return from injury within two weeks, according to a report from Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beacon Journal. Smith recently rejoined the Cavs during their three-game road trip, albeit without the intention of making his on-court return.
“Hopefully the next 10 days to two weeks he’ll be back,” Lue told Ridenour. “They’re saying he’s been looking better and better every day, he had a good workout yesterday, so hopefully we get him back soon.”
Smith’s recovery process from a fractured thumb has been a complicated one. Following a report from Chris Haynes and Dave McMenamin of ESPN that Smith could return in mid-March, J.R. tweeted “Please don’t believe the hype. Still a ways to go.” (Twitter link)
Smith, who last made an on-court appearance on December 20, signed a four-year, $57MM contract over the offseason. Kyle Korver has performed admirably in Smith’s absence, shooting 50.4% from beyond the arc since being acquired from Atlanta.
The Cavs would obviously like to have Smith back as the postseason nears, particularly while Kevin Love recovers from arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. In late February, Cavs GM David Griffin announced Smith was progressing “on schedule, maybe slightly ahead of schedule.”
Ish Smith May Replace Reggie Jackson In Starting Lineup
Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy is contemplating starting Ish Smith over Reggie Jackson, according to a report from Rod Beard of The Detroit News. Van Gundy has showed concern of his starting unit’s lack of energy and production, Beard reports, and has not been pleased with Jackson and Andre Drummond‘s defensive efforts.
“Those are the two guys [Jackson and Drummond]. The energy has got to go up,” Van Gundy said. “Andre picked up his energy the other night but that’s got to be on a consistent basis, and we need more energy out of Reggie.”
It’s been a slog for Jackson of late, averaging nine points on 32.6% shooting over his last four games. The 26-year-old still has plenty of upside, but has regressed in PPG, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage from 2015/16. Jackson was mentioned in rumors throughout the trade deadline, but stayed put due to Detroit’s high asking price, as well as his lengthy contract (Jackson is in the second season of a five-year, $80MM deal).
The Pistons enter a vital stretch of their season with just a one game lead over the eighth seed. Though Smith’s recent play has hardly been stellar- shooting 33.3% over his last five games- Van Gundy may give him the starting role in Saturday’s match-up with Philadelphia.
“We’ve got to get better energy off the start of the games,” Van Gundy said. “The last Philadelphia game was one of our better starts in each half. That’s got to get going — that’s not just him (Jackson). Anything’s possible right now, but we’ve got to get playing better and we’ve got to get our first unit playing more consistently and playing better.”
Justin Holiday “Dreams” Of Playing With Brother
Justin Holiday told Marc Berman of the New York Post that he has long wanted to play alongside his brother, Jrue.
“If we can play together, that would be a dream come true and we’d be successful doing it,’’ Justin said. “We both want to win and both know each other’s game in and out. We both know what we’re going to get from each other when we play together. It just makes sense.”
Both Justin and Jrue Holiday are unrestricted free agents-to-be. Justin, who made $1,015,696 in 2016/17 with the Knicks, has averaged 7.5 points in a career-high 61 games. Jrue is slated for a considerably higher payday. According to Bobby Marks of The Vertical, Jrue should command $16MM or $17MM per year on the open market.
Berman notes that the Pelicans “are trying to build something special” following the DeMarcus Cousins trade, and could overpay for Jrue in free agency. Justin didn’t tip his hand about his plans for free agency- “The best thing for me now is not to stress too much about [free agency]”- though Berman noted the two are each clients of Glushon Sports Management.
“I know when we play together, good things happen because we know each other’s game so well,” Justin said. “We do play hard on both ends of the floor. When you have that at both positions, it’s going to help.”
NBA’s Projected Taxpaying Teams For 2016/17
Now that the 2017 trade deadline is behind us, team salaries around the NBA shouldn’t fluctuate too drastically between now and the end of the season. Teams will continue to make minor roster changes, but as of today, a rest-of-season contract worth the minimum salary would count for no more than $237K on a club’s books. That’s a drop in the bucket when the salary cap is over $94MM.
The relative stability of team payrolls ensures that we can start looking ahead to assess which teams around the NBA will end up in luxury tax territory at season’s end. As it did in free agency last summer, the huge spike in the league’s salary cap continues to have an impact when it comes to taxpayers. Typically, at least a handful of teams pays the tax every year — last season, seven teams did. This season, however, since going into tax territory requires spending more than $113MM on team salary, only two clubs have crossed that threshold.
It’s possible that could change by the end of the 2016/17 season. The Trail Blazers, for instance, are only about $434K below the tax line, so if they need to make some roster changes in the coming weeks, they could get dangerously close to going over the threshold. But at this point, I don’t think Portland will be eager to sign anyone new to replace an injured player or two, since it’s simply not worth it for a club with a 25-35 record to risk becoming a taxpayer this late in the season.
No team besides Portland is all that close to going into the tax. The Mavericks had been about $1MM away prior to the trade deadline, but dumping Andrew Bogut‘s salary in the Nerlens Noel swap with Philadelphia didn’t just help the Sixers reach the salary floor — it also helped Dallas move comfortably away from tax territory.
So which two teams are likely to be the NBA’s only taxpayers this season? Well, the first one comes as no surprise…
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Team salary for tax purposes: $127,262,331
- Amount above the luxury tax line: $13,975,331
- Projected tax bill: $26,188,328
The Cavaliers actually project to go even further into the tax this weekend, once Derrick Williams‘ second 10-day contract expires and the team locks him up to a rest-of-season deal. However, it could be worse. Cleveland’s January trade that sent Mo Williams and Mike Dunleavy to Atlanta in exchange for Kyle Korver actually reduced the team’s salary and tax bill noticeably.
Prior to that move, the Cavs had been more than $15MM above the tax line, meaning they were a tier-four taxpayer, accruing $3.25 in taxes for every dollar spent. Now that they’re back in the third tier, their tax bill is slightly more manageable.
Los Angeles Clippers
- Team salary for tax purposes: $114,740,032
- Amount above the luxury tax line: $1,453,032
- Projected tax bill: $3,632,580
The Clippers were always close enough to the luxury tax line that it seemed plausible they could duck below it at some point this season by dumping a little salary in a trade. However, doing so almost certainly would have meant parting with a rotation player, and Doc Rivers has seemed perfectly content to stand pat — the Clippers haven’t made a single signing or cut all season.
While the Clippers won’t be on the hook for nearly as big a tax bill as Cleveland, the fact that the team remains in the tax isn’t great news. It’ll be the fourth consecutive year that Steve Ballmer‘s club has been a taxpayer, and with lucrative new contracts for Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and J.J. Redick potentially on tap this summer, the Clippers likely won’t be cutting costs in 2017/18. If they’re in the tax again next season, the Clips will continue to fact the more punitive penalties for repeat taxpayers.
Salary data in this post is based on our own math, plus contract figures from The Vertical and Basketball Insiders.
Dirk Nowitzki Still Expects To Play In 2017/18
Dirk Nowitzki has long intended to play at least 20 years in the NBA, and with the end of his 19th season fast approaching, those plans haven’t changed. Speaking to ESPN’s Marc Stein, Nowitzki said that his return for 2017/18 is a virtual lock, barring something unexpected happening in the coming weeks or months.
“I said last summer: I signed a two-year deal (and) that obviously meant I want to play for two more,” Nowitzki said. “I want to complete that deal.”
Nowitzki, 38, was plagued by an Achilles injury earlier this season, and hasn’t looked like his usual self. His averages of 13.6 PPG and .415 FG% are both the lowest marks he has posted since his rookie year way back in 1998/99. Still, as he has gotten healthier over the course of the year, the longtime Maverick has been more productive. In his last nine games, Nowitzki has averaged 16.2 PPG, 8.0 RPG, and a .438 FG%.
The Mavericks’ two-year deal with Nowitzki includes a team option worth $25MM for 2017/18, so it will be interesting to see whether the club simply picks up that option or negotiates a new contract with its star big man.
Team owner Mark Cuban has deferred to Nowitzki over the years, so I’d imagine that the club would be happy to pick up the option if that’s Nowitzki’s preference. Still, the German has taken pay cuts in the past, so it’s possible he’d want to do so again in what could be his last NBA season. Reducing that $25MM cap charge would give the Mavs more flexibility to splash around in free agency or on the trade market.
Cavs Notes: Bogut, Williams, MVP
The Cavaliers were quiet at the trade deadline but have made two significant moves since adding recently waived veterans Andrew Bogut and Deron Williams. Chris Mannix and Bobby Marks of The Vertical discussed the signings in a recent video.
Not only do the March moves shed light on why the club didn’t make a drastic move at the trade deadline — they also tie into the previously reported LeBron James “playmaker” demands. The Cavs knew that they had March 1 in their back pocket all along. While they may not have known specifically that Bogut or Williams would fall to them, it would have been reasonable for general manager David Griffin to assume that the reigning champions would at least be on the short list of any new veteran free agent hoping for a playoff run.
Limited tradeable assets and draft picks gave the Cavaliers little other choice, Marks argues, but they can rest assured that they’ve bolstered their lineup with some solid depth. Mannix mentions Williams’ possible impact in particular. The Cavs have been without a veteran backup at the point guard position since Matthew Dellavedova signed with the Bucks and Mo Williams abruptly retired.
“The gap between the Cavaliers and everybody else in the Eastern Conference just got a little bit wider,” Mannix says.
There’s more from Cleveland:
- Once again, LeBron James is making a case to win the NBA’s Most Valuable Player, writes ESPN’s Dave McMenamin. Veteran forward James Jones spoke about James’ bid for yet another award and why his case sometimes gets overlooked. “Sometimes they get bored with what they know is coming, even if that’s still the best option out there.”
- Agents have substantial influence on the waiver wire, writes Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com. Vardon suggests that NBA front offices would be wise to heed an agent’s request to not put in a bid for a veteran player going through the waiver processes, lest they want to damage their chances of doing business with the agency in the future.
- Veteran Kyle Korver spoke about his recent return to Atlanta and Marla Ridenour of the Akron Beacon Journal published video of the conversation. “It felt like I was on a really long road trip and I came back,” he said. The forward speaks fondly of his time with the Hawks but is grateful for his opportunity in Cleveland.
NBA D-League Assignments/Recalls: 3/3/17
Here are the D-League transactions for Friday:
- The Pelicans have assigned forward Cheick Diallo to the D-League, the team reports in a press release on its website. Diallo has averaged 13.7 points and 7.6 rebounds per game in 18 contests with the Greensboro Swarm.
- The Pistons have recalled rookies Henry Ellenson and Michael Gbinije from their D-League affiliate, Rod Beard of the Detroit News. Ellenson and Gbinije have seen action in 14 and nine games for the Pistons respectively.
- The Wizards have assigned center Chris McCullough to the D-League, writes Chase Hughes of CSN Mid-Atlantic. McCullough has averaged 18.1 points and 7.7 rebounds per game in 31 D-League contests this season. Having previously played for the Long Island Nets, McCullough is expected to join the Northern Arizona Suns on this assignment, says Hughes.