Poll: Who Will Make The Eastern Conference Playoffs?
The Raptors and Celtics are eight and seven games ahead, respectively, of the third-place Cavaliers, making it unlikely either team will fall below the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with only about 20 games remaining in the regular season.
Along with the top two teams in the East, the aforementioned Cavs and the Wizards and 76ers also have a 99% chance or higher of making the postseason, per FiveThirtyEight, with the remaining Eastern Conference teams’ chance of making the playoffs as follows:
- Indiana Pacers (94%)
- Miami Heat (89%)
- Milwaukee Bucks (88%)
- Charlotte Hornets (20%)
- Detroit Pistons (12%)
And despite the discrepancy in percentage between the Pacers, Heat and Bucks as compared to the Hornets and Pistons, only 7.5 games separate the five teams, with the eighth-place Heat and ninth-place Pistons only separated by three games.
Moreover, Charlotte and Detroit have the 29th and 25th hardest schedules remaining, while Indiana, Milwaukee and Miami have the 2nd, 18th and 26th hardest remaining schedules, per tankathon.com.
For their part, the Pacers still have to face the Warriors and Raptors twice each (home and away for both), in addition to one more game in Boston, while the Hornets’ toughest remaining game is in Toronto. Accordingly, the race could come down to the final days of the regular season, where the Hornets and Pacers finish off their schedules with a home-and-home on April 8 and 10.
So what do you think? Which three teams will join the other five likely contenders from the Eastern Conference? Will the Pacers, Heat, and Bucks hold on to their playoff spots or will the Hornets and/or Pistons bump one of them from the postseason? Vote below in our poll for three teams and then jump into the comment section to share your thoughts!
Who Will Make The Eastern Conference Playoffs?
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Milwaukee Bucks 34% (538)
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Indiana Pacers 30% (487)
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Miami Heat 25% (393)
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Detroit Pistons 8% (122)
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Charlotte Hornets 4% (63)
Total votes: 1,603
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Five Key Stories: 2/24/18 – 3/3/18
In case you missed any of the past week’s top stories from around the Association, we have you covered with our Week in Review. Below are the most noteworthy stories from the last seven days.
The Hawks and Ersan Ilyasova finalized a buyout agreement, with Ilyasova the second veteran to be released by Atlanta in recent weeks. And like the prior veteran released by Atlanta before him – Marco Belinelli – Ilyasova has signed a rest-of-season contract with the Sixers. In order to make room for Ilyasova on their roster, Philadelphia released veteran forward Trevor Booker, who plans on signing with the Pacers after he clears waivers.
The Lakers and Corey Brewer finalized a buyout agreement as well. Brewer, like Ilyasova, quickly determined the team with which he wanted to sign, choosing the Thunder after also considering three Eastern Conference teams. The fit in Oklahoma City is logical given the injury to Andre Roberson and Brewer’s relationship with head coach Billy Donovan, Brewer’s coach in college at the University of Florida.
The Timberwolves and Shabazz Muhammad also finalized a buyout agreement, with Muhammad committed to signing with the Bucks once he clears waivers. In order to make room for Muhammad on their roster, Milwaukee released guard Sean Kilpatrick before the March 1 deadline so that he is playoff eligible for a new team if signed.
Despite head coach Gregg Popovich’s recent comments that Kawhi Leonard may not play the rest of this season, Leonard does in fact plan on returning this season. Specifically, Leonard has begun working out at the Spurs’ practice facility in hopes of returning to the court sometime this month. A speculated return date is the Spurs’ mid-March road trip to Golden State, Oklahoma City, and Houston.
Dwyane Wade is happy to be back in Miami, but that doesn’t necessarily guarantee that he will suit up again next season. Wade will only be 36 years old this summer, but he’s not ready to commit to another season just yet. Some of the many factors Wade plans to consider include milestones regarding his NBA legacy, his short and long-term health, and his family.
Here are 13 additional headlines from last week:
- The Pelicans signed veteran big man Emeka Okafor to a rest-of-season contract after his second 10-day contract expired.
- The Jazz signed Naz Mitrou-Long to a second 10-day contract with the team.
- The Bulls signed Jarell Eddie to a 10-day contract.
- The Magic signed Rashad Vaughn to a second 10-day contract.
- The Lakers signed Travis Wear to a 10-day contract.
- The Pelicans will sign Walt Lemon Jr. to a second 10-day contract.
- The Suns signed Shaquille Harrison to a second 10-day contract.
- The Knicks signed Troy Williams to a second 10-day contract.
- Jimmy Butler underwent successful surgery on his torn right meniscus.
- Knicks point guard Jarrett Jack considered requesting a release from the Knicks before the March 1 playoff eligibility deadline.
- NBA Commissioner Adam Silver sent a memo to all 30 teams with a reminder of the league’s policy on tanking.
- Former MVP Derrick Rose has received a couple of 10-day contract offers, but continues to hold out hope for a long-term offer.
- Despite a report to the contrary, Mirza Teletovic has denied that pulmonary emboli in both of his lungs has ended his career.
Hoops Rumors Originals: 2/24/18 – 3/3/18
Every week, the writing team here at Hoops Rumors’ creates original content to complement the news feed. Here are our original segments and features from the past seven days:
- Chris Crouse presented an interesting piece on the events taking place at the 2018 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, where tanking vs. rebuilding became a hot topic.
- Before the March 1 playoff eligibility deadline, Luke Adams took a look at five candidates who were rumored to potentially be waived.
- As part of our Community Shootaround Series, we asked:
- Does the injury to Timberwolves’ All-Star Jimmy Butler doom Minnesota’s playoff chances or will fellow All-Star Karl-Anthony Towns and others step up their games while Butler is out?
- Which buyout candidates should have been pushing the hardest to be bought out before the March 1 deadline?
- What can/should the NBA do to discourage the widespread tanking efforts we’re seeing in 2017/18?
- Out of the 10 teams fighting to make the playoffs in the Western Conference, which two teams will miss the postseason?
- We reminded you how to follow your favorite players on Hoops Rumors.
- In his Weekly Mailbag, Arthur Hill answered readers’ questions regarding the upcoming free agency of Julius Randle, and the futures of DeMarcus Cousins, DeAndre Jordan, Reggie Jackson, and Stan Van Gundy.
- As part of his Fantasy Hoops series, Chris Crouse touched upon the improved play of Jamal Crawford, the stock of Hawks’ rookie John Collins and newly-returned Paul Millsap, and who to pick up from the Pacers while Darren Collison is out.
- Luke Adams updated the roster status of teams with openings and future openings (at least one player on a 10-day contract).
- We analyzed the rules surrounding playoff eligibility – or lack thereof – for two-way players.
- Luke Adams recapped the buyouts we saw in the month of February.
- Our latest 2018 Free Agent Stock Watch focused on the Pacers.
- Chris Crouse provided an original piece about the new and improved Michael Beasley.
Knicks Sign Troy Williams To Second 10-Day Deal
The Knicks have signed swingman Troy Williams to a second 10-day contract, per the team’s official public relations twitter page.
After beginning his rookie year in Memphis a season ago, Williams, 23, caught on with the Rockets at the end of the 2017/18 season and was able to parlay his performance into a three-year contract worth $1.9MM in guaranteed money, but was released earlier this year in order to make room on Houston’s roster for Joe Johnson.
He averaged 12.5 minutes, 8.0 points and 2.5 rebounds per game in four games during his first 10-day stint in New York, and holds career averages of 5.8 PPG and 2.2 RPG.
Suns Sign Shaquille Harrison To Second 10-Day Contract
The Suns have signed guard Shaquille Harrison to a second 10-day contract, tweets Scott Bordow of Arizona Central Sports.
Harrison, 24, went undrafted out of Tulsa in 2016 and was part of the Suns’ training camp that year. The last two seasons, Harrison has played with the organization’s G League affiliate Northern Arizona. In 36 games with Northern Arizona, he averaged 11.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, and 1.9 SPG.
In five games with Phoenix this season, Harrison has averaged 1.8 PPG and 1.4 APG in limited playing time. Harrison contributed seven points and five rebounds in 18 minutes as part of the Suns’ February 28 win over the Grizzlies.
Cavaliers Notes: Love, Smith, Green, Buyout Market
Injured Cavaliers big man Kevin Love is back on the court rehabbing from a broken left hand he suffered in late January, Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com writes. A team source tells Vardon that there is no anticipated change from the original eight-week timetable for Love’s recovery, putting his return on track for the end of March.
While the team may not see a change, Love hopes he can return ahead of schedule, ESPN’s Dave McMenamin writes.
“If I can get back before eight weeks, great,” Love said. “I’m hoping that is the case.”
Before the injury, Love was enjoying a characteristically strong season, averaging 17.9 PPG and 9.4 RPG in 48 games.
There is more Cavaliers news and notes below:
- J.R. Smith made his first public comments since serving a one-game suspension for throwing soup at assistant coach Damon Jones, Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com writes. Smith said he has spoken to teammates and hopes to move on from the incident. “I talked to my teammates about it, everybody seemed cool,” Smith said. “We moved on from it as a team, so whether it warranted a suspension or not, that’s not my job. I’m just here to play basketball.” Smith noted that he does not remember what type of soup he threw but Jason Lloyd of The Athletic tweets it was chicken tortilla.
- Since the Cavaliers restructured the team at the deadline, Jeff Green has seen his both his role and production diminish. With four name faces in Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr., Rodney Hood, and George Hill on board, the team is still trying to find the right balance, Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com writes. “When Channing (Frye) and those guys were here, he had the ball in his hands a lot and making plays and he was orchestrating, and now we have a different team of guys who can score and the second unit can make a play so the ball hasn’t been in his hands as much,” head coach Tyronn Lue said. “We have to find that balance still. Searching for that balance.”
- The Cavaliers have been active in the buyout market in recent years but the market is razor thin this season, Sam Amico of Amico Hoops writes. Last year, Cleveland added Andrew Bogut and Deron Williams for the postseason run. Both those names are available now but would not be much of an upgrade to the current roster. As it stands, even with an open roster spot, the current Cavaliers roster is the one we will see for the remainder of the year, Amico notes.
Knicks Notes: Hornacek, Ntilikina, Hardaway, Mudiay
Knicks head coach Jeff Hornacek was visibly upset at the team’s defensive effort in Friday’s loss to the Clippers, Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News writes. In particular, Hornacek was frustrated the Knicks’ lack of physicality against Clippers center DeAndre Jordan and guard Austin Rivers.
“It was terrible,” Hornacek said. “It was a terrible defensive effort. Defensively, it’s disappointing. The (Clippers) just kind of line it up. You saw (Austin) Rivers just made two 3s (in the third quarter) and we’re just going let him line it up and shoot another one. You get all over guys. That’s a pride thing.”
The Knicks are in the midst of another disappointing season, sporting a 24-39 record. New York has also dropped 11 of their last 12 games. With the head coach openly questioning the team’s effort, it’s plausible to question whether or not the team’s remaining games are part of Hornacek’s farewell tour.
Check out other Knicks news and notes below:
- The Knicks were playing well and seemed to be headed in the right direction before Tim Hardaway Jr. suffered a stress injury that sidelined him for 20 games. Bondy relays in a separate story that Hardaway wants to use the rest of the year to prove his worth. “I had a solid preseason, struggled the first four games of the regular season and then was just cruising after that,” Hardaway said. “We were winning. We had a winning streak here and there. I felt confident, I felt great — and then, the injury. The injury I think was a blow to the team. I was very disappointed. I really felt like if I didn’t have that injury we wouldn’t be in the position we’d be in right now. And it sucks. But it’s life.”
- The Knicks drafted Frank Ntilikina as their hopeful point guard of the future but his play since the All-Star break indicates he may be playing the wrong position, Bondy writes in another article. In his increased minutes, Ntilikina has played off the ball and seen his assists decrease and that could signal his future being more of a shooting guard than a true playmaker, Bondy notes.
- Emmanuel Mudiay is adjusting to a new system with the Knicks but he is also looking to improve his physical conditioning, Newsday’s Al Iannazzone writes.
Corey Brewer Signs With Thunder
MARCH 3: Brewer’s signing with the Thunder is official, per the NBA’s official transactions log.
MARCH 1, 10:39am: Brewer has committed to sign with the Thunder once he clears waivers, tweets Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports. Brewer talked to Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan and GM Sam Presti and considered three Eastern Conference teams before deciding.
FEBRUARY 28, 6:50pm: Brewer is likely to sign with the Thunder after all, tweets ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. The Lakers officially waived Brewer earlier today, meaning the veteran swingman will be free to sign a contract with Oklahoma City as early as Friday.
3:03pm: One source tells David Aldridge of TNT (Twitter link) that while the Thunder are definitely in the mix for Brewer, the veteran is more likely to land with an Eastern Conference team.
10:44am: Amick (via Twitter) adds the Jazz and Pelicans to the list of teams that could also be in the mix for Brewer, noting that several of the teams he has mentioned are also keeping an eye on the Trevor Booker situation in Philadelphia.
10:28am: The Lakers and veteran swingman Corey Brewer have reportedly reached an agreement on a buyout, which means he could become a free agent as soon as Friday. When Brewer does hit the open market, a deal with the Thunder is a “serious possibility,” according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link).
As Wojnarowski notes, the ex-Gator is likely to be drawn to Oklahoma City by the presence of his former coach at Florida, Billy Donovan, who is now the Thunder’s head coach. Even aside from the Donovan connection, Brewer would be a logical fit for OKC, since the team has been on the lookout for one more option on the wing since Andre Roberson‘s injury, tweets ESPN’s Royce Young.
While the Thunder may be the frontrunners for Brewer, he’ll talk to other teams too, per Wojnarowski. The 31-year-old is unlikely to rush his decision, according to Sam Amick of USA Today, who tweets that the Cavaliers, Wizards, Trail Blazers, and Bucks have also shown interest. Amick adds that Brewer – averaging a career-low 12.9 minutes per game this season – will be seeking a “legit role,” which figures to impact his decision.
Although several playoff teams have already been linked to Brewer, his mediocre outside shot (.280 career 3PT%) will limit his appeal to some contenders. For instance, he’s not likely to be a fit for the Raptors, notes Josh Lewenberg of TSN (Twitter link). Meanwhile, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets that Minnesota has “kicked the tires” on the former Timberwolf, but says not to count on a reunion.
Tanking The Process: Views From The 2018 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
Tanking remains a major topic of debate in the NBA and it was one of several issues that dominated this year’s MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. The split between those who believe in the strategy and those who loathe it was apparent at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center last weekend.
Former Sixers GM Sam Hinkie headlined a panel conveniently named: Trust the Process? Team Building And Rebuilding In The NBA. While the audience appeared to be a pro-Hinkie crowd, the father of The Process clearly was ready to face some criticism up on the stage.
“If we run out of things to talk about, I’ll just lay on the stage and everyone can just kick me in the ribs,” Hinkie said to begin the panel.
Hinkie didn’t face too much scrutiny during the high-energy event, though Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca made it clear he wasn’t a fan of the former GM’s previous strategy.
“I actually don’t think statistically that the process, as it’s defined to me, actually works,” Pagliuca said. “Because there just [aren’t] enough good odds to get the great player, so if you really bottom out, first of all, you have to get the pick. You have to win the lottery. Second of all, there has to be a great draft where there is a LeBron. Most drafts, the ninth player in one draft is as good as the best player in the next draft. So when you do all the odds, surely going in that direction, to me, is a bad strategy.”
There seems to be optimism around the league that teams can find franchise players in the draft even if their picks don’t fall near the top of the lottery, something I referred to during my appearance on NBAMath’s Hardwood Knocks podcast.
Clippers executive Lawrence Frank touched upon this belief when talking about the Blake Griffin trade. The deal netted Los Angeles a lightly-protected first-round pick from the Pistons, which is currently slotted as the 12th selection, as our Reverse Standings show.
“Steve Nash sat on this panel. What number was he picked? 15th. Giannis Antetokounmpo: 15th. Kawhi Leonard: 15th. You have to be able to nail [the pick]. Donovan Mitchell: 13th,” Frank said.
Rockets GM Daryl Morey can understand why some top talent falls in the draft. “As a league, we are getting worse at drafting,” Morey said during his conversation with President Barack Obama.
Still, acquiring top talent with middling picks means that front offices must sometimes get lucky. Franchises picking far from the top must identify the talent and hope that the teams ahead of them in the draft fail to do so. That’s why tanking remains an active strategy in the NBA.
The league is keeping an eye out for this strategy, promising to take action against teams that abuse the system.
“If we ever received evidence that players or coaches were attempting to lose or otherwise taking steps to cause any game to result otherwise than on its competitive merits, that conduct would be met with the swiftest and harshest response possible from the league office,” commissioner Adam Silver recently said in a memo to all 30 teams.
In an attempt to dissuade tanking, the NBA has revamped its lottery format. Starting in 2019, the odds from top-to-bottom will be altered, with the odds at landing the No. 1 overall pick reducing more gradually from 1-to-14 than in the previous format.
This is all happening while Philadelphia’s maligned plan seems to be working. The Sixers, fresh off of a statement win over the Cavs, appear to be heading to the playoffs for the first time since the 2011/12 campaign. The franchise has two of the league’s brightest young stars and the flexibility to add additional talent without making huge sacrifices. They have a case to present to LeBron James that would, at a minimum, make him think about a relocation to the City of Brotherly Love, though he recently shut down the rumors of him looking to move his family to Pennsylvania.
Regardless of opinion, The Process may be a once-in-a-lifetime occurrence. With the change in lottery format, the distaste for tanking among many owners, and the surreal optimism surrounding a wide-range of draft picks, it appears the league may never see another multi-year, Hinkie-esque strategy — despite the appearance of a proof of concept.
Photo courtesy of MIT’s Andrew Geraghty
Michael Beasley’s Journey Sets Him Up For The Future
Michael Beasley hasn’t lived up to the expectations of a No. 2 overall pick, but it looks like he’s finally found a way to translate his talent to the NBA. He’s found success with the Knicks this season and one league executive isn’t surprised that Beasley turned it around.
“You could see a difference in him once he got back from China,” the executive told Hoops Rumors. “He’s putting it all together.”
Being in a place where it’s difficult to communicate with most people due to a language barrier can direct one’s focus on themselves, and it appears that’s what happened with Beasley. “The talent was always there and experiences like [the China stints] can bring the change needed to progress,” the executive added.
The Kansas State standout spent two seasons abroad and his offense shined. He won the Chinese Basketball Association’s All-Star MVP in each campaign.
Beasley signed a one-year deal with New York over the summer and his play in the Big Apple shows he can make an impact in the league. He’s averaging 21.6 points per 36 minutes and shooting 40.7% from behind the arc this season, though when he becomes a free agent this summer, he’s going to prioritize more than just offensive opportunity.
“[I’m] not satisfied. Like I can score, but that’s not like my main focus. Like I want the opportunity. I want someone, a coach, an organization to believe in me to the point where I can win games,” Beasley recently told Chris Haynes of ESPN.com.
The 29-year-old credits his international experience for his new way of thinking on the court.
“My thing is I don’t want to just score, I want to make players better. And I didn’t even know that about myself until I went to China the first time,” Beasley said. “It became fun to see my teammates’ reaction to things that they didn’t even think that they could do. You know? And to me, that’s like the fun of it. When we all playing the right way, when we all making the right pass.”
“You know, and I’ve always wanted to be the guy, like the KD, the LeBron type to bring that aura and that atmosphere and those type of wins to the city. You know, so I’m still at a place to where I’m hungry.”
Beasley, who has been a fantasy darling, as I mentioned in a previous edition of Fantasy Hoops, will be an unrestricted free agent this summer after making slightly over $1.47MM this season in New York. With the strides he has made, the former No. 2 pick could be looking at much more lucrative offers once the new league year begins, though that’s just my speculation.