As a group, the Suns, Knicks, Cavaliers, and Bulls have established themselves in recent weeks and months as the NBA’s bottom tier for 2018/19. Lengthy losing streaks by the Suns (11-50) and the Knicks (12-48) have put them at the “top” of our reverse standings, and even after a little recent success, the Cavaliers (14-46) and Bulls (16-44) are right there with them.
Given how much separation those four teams have had from the NBA’s other 26 clubs for much of the season, speculation about the No. 1 overall pick for 2019 has centered mostly on them. It’s easy to imagine top prospect Zion Williamson ending up in Phoenix, New York, Cleveland, or Chicago.
However, the NBA’s new lottery system could shake things up this spring for the 2019 draft. In past seasons, the league’s worst team had a 25% shot at the No. 1 overall pick, and there was a 72.4% chance that one of those bottom four clubs would end up in the top slot. Under the new system, the odds for the worst team have been reduced just to 14%, and there’s only a 54.5% chance that a bottom-four club gets the first overall pick.
In other words, some scenarios that would have previously been considered long shots are a little more realistic this season. Could the Grizzlies jumpstart their rebuild and put together one of them most athletic young frontcourts in the NBA by pairing Williamson with Jaren Jackson? Could the Mavericks add Williamson to a core that already features Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis? How about the Wizards salvaging an otherwise lost season by landing the top pick and giving Bradley Beal and John Wall the frontcourt star they’ve long sought?
Whichever teams lose the playoff races in each conference won’t have a great chance to secure the No. 1 pick, but those odds will still be more favorable than in the past. Maybe the Heat could get lucky and land a young star after failing to secure any in free agency in recent years. If the Hornets lucked into the top pick, that could cement Kemba Walker‘s decision to stay in Charlotte.
If the Lakers were to miss the postseason and somehow scored the No. 1 selection, it could be the key to finally getting the Pelicans to accept their offer for Anthony Davis — assuming they wouldn’t want to keep Williamson themselves.
And then there’s the nightmare scenario for every Eastern Conference team outside of Philadelphia: What if the Kings miss the postseason and land the first overall pick? In that scenario, the pick would go to the Sixers (if it’s not No. 1, the Celtics will get it).
The lottery is still a few months away, but Williamson looks like the kind of prospect who could transform a franchise, so it’s not too early to speculate about which landing spot would represent the most fun outcome. What do you think? Putting aside your fandom, what draft lottery scenario would be the most enjoyable, or would make the best story?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in!
Regardless of being a Sixers fan I think it would be most fun if the Sixers won it. I just think the chaos and craziness of it would be most entertaining. My other two choices would be the Pelicans getting it out of sympathy for their fans or the Mavs getting it to really screw over plans of other teams in the West.
Given how the league forced the Colangelos on the Sixers and Bryan’s handing the Celtics an extra lottery pick so he could take The Human Hiccup in Markelle Fultz it would be some sweet poetic justice for Philly to get the number one overall pick.
I don’t think I will feel real justice until Sam Hinkie gets hired again, another team openly tanks without prentending otherwise like the Sixers did, or some team rejects Adam Silver’s meddling and openly defies him. That is why I want to Pelicans to sit Anthony Davis and say “you can fine us and vilify us all you want but you can’t force us to play him and it is on you to fix the broken CBA that caused these systematic problems not us.” It really should be the league who are held accountable for all this undesired behavior that is “””hurting the integrity of the game”””.
Okay rant over.
Well if Zion wanted to sit out a year Sixers are the way to go. I’d love of they got #1 overall, but Kings will make the playoffs most likely.
you got to like the health of the league as the bottom tier teams have legit young-core players to build around
Anybody but the Suns; they wouldn’t know how to use him effectively on the court. (See center afterthought Ayton & point Booker)
I disagree.
Think that’s by far the most exciting landing spot.
Booker & Ayton have both been great.. team is actively tanking and don’t have a PG..
Ayton, Booker, Zion, Jackson is mouth watering.. could attract Kemba or tank one more year for a lotto PG .. sign all to long term deals and wait for the fireworks when they’re all 25-27 age
I think you missed my point & sarcasm. The statement is the Suns haven’t figured out how to funnel the ball to the inside for Ayton; and you have an elite spot up shooter trying to play point guard. What makes you think they would know how to position Zion? Whose the alpha & leader? And JJ; no thanks. Kelly Oubre is showing how unimportant Jackson is. And you better shoot much lower for your PG; Kemba or Kyrie aren’t going to PHX. Rozier will resign with BOS. Maybe you could get Rubio if you way overpay.
Rozier will be restricted .. Only way he’s back is if he gets lowballed and celtics match it. If not, he’s a starter somewhere
The most fun outcome imo would be if multiple teams outside the top 4 jumped ahead into the top 3. My biased (and probably going to get some hate for this) opinion, I would love to see the Knicks fall out of the top 3.
I’m a Knicks fan and I hope they get the top pick. That being said, I hate that tanking goes on. The idea that management is hoping for losses is disgusting. But I am not naive. I know lots of teams do this and feel it gives them their best chance in the big picture. Personally, I think all nonplayoff teams should have an equal shot at the number one pick. I believe that would (mostly) eliminate tanking. I think the league had it right the first time they had a draft lottery (besides the frozen envelope, lol).
That’s why they need to abolish the draft and have entry level free agency period with cap space based on reverse standings..
Teams can tank for that top cap chunk, but don’t want to look so unattractive that the top player takes (2-3Mil) less to sign somewhere slightly better
My instinct is to say let him shine in NY a competitive Knicks team is good for the league, but I also don’t want them to become too desirable and snipe KD lol
I’d assume they trade him for AD if they get #1..
4 years of Zion is worth more than 1 year of AD. Especially for a generation’s long crap team like the Knicks.
I’d like to see the Pels get the 1st pick. Then, see the Kings pick at 2. The Celtics could trade the 2nd pick plus a few more pieces to the Pels for AD. The Pels end up with Zion and Reddish to start their rebuild.
Kings have less than 1% chance of landing top-5
So you’re saying there is a chance.
Would be at least 2% if they don’t make the playoffs.
But if you’re taking into account the chances they make the playoffs, that number could be right. Either way, an extreme long shot.
Has to be New Orleans, that would be hilarious.
For FUN?
Dallas. 100% pairing Luka and Zion would be a blast.
It also means Zion won’t land in NOP, sparing him from a slow motion train wreck.
Anywhere but NOLA is a great starting point. After that Chicago (Lauri) don’t need Zion, Knicks if it is just to send him to NOLA they don’t deserve him, Cleveland only needs him if they trade K-Love (unlikely), Atlanta (Collins) don’t really need him either, so really is down to Phoenix, they really could do with him.
Any team could use a generational talent like Zion. He could be the LeBron of his generation. Saying a team shouldn’t draft Zion because they already have a player at PF, is like saying the 76ers shouldn’t have picked Embiid because they had Okafor.
He has to go to the Land. Right after losing LeBron to the Lakers they get Zion. The universe will have corrected itself. They get 21st from HOU and take Bol Bol. Sexton, Osman, Nance Jr, Zion and Bol as the future.
Why the hawks keep winning
DALLAS would be the best spot for him and it would make the west’s next great team
Most fun?– probably if the Knicks get it, and the intrigue begins.
Frankly I would rather the Cavs get #2 Ja Morant. Him and Sexton would be fastest combo there is, and the Cavs need someone who can run things. ZionW as the new Lebron is tempting but RJ Barrett is my second choice, then Nassir.
Most fun would be Dallas. A lineup with Luka, KP, and Zion sounds a lot of fun.
I have to agree. Great comment!
Actually funniest would be Lakers as everyone can then get the conspiracy train rolling.