NBA Cap Projection Lowered for 2020/21 Season
The NBA has informed teams that its updated projected salary cap and tax level remain unchanged for next season and is $2MM lower for the 2020/21 season, Shams Charania of The Athletic tweets.
The league projects a cap of $109MM for next season and a $132MM threshold when the luxury tax kicks in. Its projection for the 2020/21 season is a $116MM salary cap and a $141MM tax level.
The stable projection for the 2019/20 season means that budgets set for free agency don’t have to be altered. The teams projected to have the most cap space to pursue free agents include the Knicks, Clippers, Nets, Mavericks, Hawks, Pacers, Lakers, Kings and Sixers.
The salary cap this season is $101,869,000 with a luxury tax threshold of $123,733,000.
Lakers Would Consider Juwan Howard As Head Coach Candidate
If the Lakers elect to move on from head coach Luke Walton at season’s end, Heat assistant Juwan Howard would be among the candidates they consider, reports Marc Stein of The New York Times (via Twitter).
Still, while Howard would be an option for the Lakers, he shouldn’t be considered the frontrunner, according to Stein. At least one betting site set odds earlier this week on who will coach the Lakers to start 2019/20, and Howard was listed as the favorite at 4-to-1, followed by Walton and Tyronn Lue at 7-to-1.
A longtime NBA big man who won titles with the Heat as a player alongside LeBron James in 2012 and 2013, Howard transitioned to Miami’s coaching staff when he retired after the ’13 championship. He has served as an assistant to Erik Spoelstra since then and drew some interest last spring from a couple teams seeking a head coach — Howard reportedly interviewed with the Knicks and Pistons before they hired David Fizdale and Dwane Casey, respectively.
Although nothing is official yet, Walton is widely expected to be replaced once the Lakers’ season comes to an end. In recent weeks, Lue, Jason Kidd, and even Rick Carlisle have been cited as potential candidates for Los Angeles in the event that the club makes a change.
Eastern Conference Semifinals Will Have Major Offseason Implications
Not every list of 2019’s top 10 NBA free agents will look the same, but it’s a safe bet that all of those lists will include Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard and Celtics guard Kyrie Irving. It’s hard to imagine leaving Sixers forward Jimmy Butler or Tobias Harris out of the top 10 either. And after his first All-Star season, Bucks sharpshooter Khris Middleton deserves a spot in that group too.
In other words, five of the top 10 players expected to reach unrestricted free agency this summer are on the four teams currently atop the Eastern Conference: Milwaukee, Toronto, Philadelphia, and Boston. Throw in veteran marksmen J.J. Redick (Sixers) and Danny Green (Raptors), as well as key Bucks contributors Malcolm Brogdon and Brook Lopez, and you could put together an awfully talented rotation of free-agents-to-be among those four Eastern contenders.
Those four teams have something else in common, besides having standout players in contract years: They’ll all be disappointed if they don’t make it beyond the second round of the postseason.
The Bucks haven’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 2001, but this year’s group looks like it has NBA Finals potential. Milwaukee has clinched the NBA’s best record, has a winning record against all its potential postseason opponents, and features the odds-on favorite to win the Most Valuable Player award, in Giannis Antetokounmpo. A second-round exit would be a letdown.
Right behind them are the Raptors, who blew up last year’s 59-win team with an eye toward making a deeper playoff run. With newcomers like Leonard, Green, and Marc Gasol in Toronto to lead the way – and Raptor-killer LeBron James no longer in the picture – this is another team that feels as if it has a real chance of advancing to the Finals. After a season of nagging injuries and load management, Toronto seems to be getting healthy and coming together at the right time.
While Milwaukee and Toronto are the odds-on favorites to represent the East in the Finals, the Sixers and Celtics certainly shouldn’t be overlooked. Philadelphia has gone all-in on its star-studded starting five, and owner Josh Harris has said that the Sixers want to “at minimum” advance deeper in the playoffs than they did last year, when they were knocked out in the second round by Boston. As for those Celtics, they entered the 2018/19 season as the Eastern frontrunners, and still believe they’re the team to beat if they’re playing up to their potential.
The Pacers and the rest of the conference’s still-to-be-decided playoff teams will be looking to play spoiler, but regardless of whether any of those clubs can pull off an upset, no more than two of the Bucks, Raptors, Sixers, and Celtics can advance past the Eastern Conference Semifinals. And the outcome of that round figures to have a significant impact on the NBA’s offseason landscape.
If the Raptors are bounced in the second round, it’s hard to imagine Leonard seriously considering a return. A second-round loss for the Celtics would cast even more doubt on the idea of Irving re-signing in Boston. There’s already some skepticism that the Sixers will bring back both Harris and Butler, and an ECF loss would make that an even less likely scenario. The Bucks, who have exceeded expectations this season, are probably the club least likely to undergo major offseason changes, but Middleton will be a popular target in free agency — if Milwaukee is knocked off in round two, it could increase his willingness to test the open market.
On the other hand, the team that makes a run all the way to the NBA Finals will be in a far more secure position entering free agency. If Irving is on the fence about Boston, winning the East would definitely help convince him that the Celtics are capable of continuing to win going forward. Ditto for Leonard and the Raptors.
The idea that a team’s postseason success can influence a top free agent’s offseason decision is a common one. This spring in the Eastern Conference, we’ll get an opportunity to see just how big a factor that is for a handful of star players, as at least two teams are set to fall short of their playoff goals.
Hoops Rumors Glossary: Ted Stepien Rule
While a rule like the Gilbert Arenas provision can flatter its namesake, the late Ted Stepien, former owner of the Cavaliers, may have preferred not to go down in history as the reference point for the Ted Stepien rule. Stepien owned the Cavs in the early 1980s, and made a number of trades that left the franchise without first-round picks for several years. As a result, the NBA eventually instituted a rule that prohibited teams from trading out of the first round for consecutive future seasons.
Because the Stepien rule applies only to future draft picks, teams are still permitted to trade their first-rounders every year if they so choose, but they can’t trade out of the first round for back-to-back future seasons.
For instance, since the Raptors have traded their 2019 first-round pick to San Antonio, they aren’t currently permitted to trade their 2020 first-rounder. Following the 2019 draft though, the Raptors will regain the right to trade that 2020 first-round pick, since their ’19 first-rounder will no longer be considered a future pick.
The Stepien rule does allow a team to trade consecutive future first-round picks if the team has acquired a separate first-rounder from another team for either of those years. So if Toronto were to trade for a new 2019 first-rounder, that would give the Raptors the flexibility to move their 2020 pick without having to wait until after the 2019 draft.
Teams are permitted to include protection on draft picks. This can create complications related to the Stepien rule, which prevents teams from trading a first-round pick if there’s any chance at all that it will leave a team without a first-rounder for two straight years.
For example, the Mavericks have traded a top-five protected 2019 first-round pick to Atlanta. That traded 2019 pick is protected through 2022, and as long as there’s still a chance it won’t convey immediately, the Mavs are prevented from unconditionally trading any of their next few first-round picks. That’s why when Dallas agreed to send two future first-round picks to New York in the Kristaps Porzingis trade, those picks came with conditions attached — the Knicks won’t receive the first of those selections until two years after the Mavs’ pick to Atlanta conveys.
[RELATED: Traded first round picks for 2019 NBA draft]
Teams will have to take the Stepien rule into account this offseason as they mull including draft picks in deals. Oklahoma City, for instance, is one of the teams most significantly impacted by the rule at the moment. The Thunder have committed their 2020 first-round pick to Philadelphia and their 2022 selection to Atlanta, limiting OKC’s ability to move any other first-rounders up until at least 2024.
Here are a few more rules related to trading draft picks:
- For salary-matching purposes, a traded draft pick counts as $0 until the player signs a contract.
- The “Seven Year Rule” prohibits teams from trading draft picks more than seven years in advance. For instance, during the 2018/19 season, a 2025 draft pick could have been traded, but a 2026 pick could not have been dealt.
- A team can add protection to a pick it has acquired as long as there wasn’t already protection on the pick. For example, when the Sixers flipped the Kings’ 2019 first-round pick to the Celtics, Philadelphia included top-one protection on the pick. Boston will get that selection this year unless the 76ers beat the odds and land the No. 1 overall pick.
Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.
Earlier version of this post were published in 2012 and 2018 by Luke Adams.
Draft Updates: Waters, Mays, Hommes, Wigginton
After LSU center Naz Reid announced earlier this week that he’s entering his name in the 2019 NBA draft pool, two of his teammates have followed suit. According to a pair of press releases from the program, sophomore point guard Tremont Waters and junior combo guard Skylar Mays have also declared for the draft.
Waters, who is ranked as the No. 49 prospect on Jonathan Givony’s big board at ESPN.com, confirmed that he’ll be hiring an agent. While that doesn’t necessary preclude a return to LSU next season, his announcement doesn’t say anything about preserving his college eligibility, so it seems like a safe bet that he’ll go pro. The 5’11” guard is coming off a sophomore year in which he averaged 15.3 PPG, 5.8 APG, and 2.8 SPG in 33 games and was named to the All-SEC first team.
As for Mays, his announcement doesn’t reveal whether he’ll hire an agent, or whether he’s leaving the door open to return to the Tigers for his senior season. A second-team All-SEC selection, Mays posted 13.4 PPG on .421/.313/.860 shooting in 35 games. He’s not ranked in Givony’s top 100.
Here are a few more updates on early entrants declaring for this year’s draft:
- Division II Player of the Year Daulton Hommes has informed Jonathan Givony of ESPN.com that he’s entering the draft and will look to hire an agent. The junior forward, who played his college ball at Point Loma Nazarene University, is one of the only D-II players to crack Givony’s big board, coming in at No. 96.
- Iowa State sophomore guard Lindell Wigginton is entering the draft and plans on keeping his name in this year’s pool, he tells Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). The 6’2″ Canadian – who tested the draft waters in 2018 before withdrawing – averaged 13.4 PPG, 4.0 RPG, and 2.1 APG with a .413/.390/.720 shooting line off the bench for the Cyclones this season.
- All-Ivy League guard Bryce Aiken announced that he’ll test the draft waters, leaving the door open to potentially return to Harvard for his senior year. “I am excited for the opportunity to see where I stand in this process the NBA has created,” Aiken said in a statement. “My goal has always been to be a Harvard graduate and an NBA player.”
- Our full list of the early entrants for 2019’s draft can be found here.
Five Western FAs Who Have Boosted Their Value In 2018/19
When we recently identified a handful of Eastern Conference free-agents-to-be who have significantly increased their stock this season, that list was headlined by players like D’Angelo Russell, Nikola Vucevic, and Bojan Bogdanovic, all of whom should be in line for big-money deals this summer. It’s a little trickier to identify similar players in the West.
That’s not to say there aren’t plenty of big-name free agents in the Western Conference. However, guys like Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson entered the year expecting to be in line for lucrative long-term deals and nothing they’ve done has changed that outlook one way or the other.
Still, there are a number of lower-tier FAs-to-be in the West whose strong years have boosted their earning potential for the 2019 offseason. Today, we’ll shine a spotlight on a few of those guys, identifying five players in contract years who have improved their stock with their play this season.
Let’s dive in…
Kelly Oubre, F, Suns (RFA): With Otto Porter ahead of him on the depth chart in Washington, Oubre never really had a chance to thrive with the Wizards in the same way he did after being traded to the Suns. In 40 games with his new team, Oubre played a career-high 29.5 minutes per contest, averaging career bests in PPG (16.9), RPG (4.9), APG (1.6), SPG (1.4), and FG% (.453) as well. Despite a crowded depth chart at small forward in Phoenix, Oubre looks like a core long-term piece, and should receive a long-term contract this offseason.- Patrick Beverley, G, Clippers: After he missed nearly all of the 2017/18 season due to microfracture and meniscus surgery on his knee, it wasn’t clear whether Beverley would be the same player upon his return. His play for the Clippers this season has put those concerns to rest. In addition to filling the stat sheet with 7.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 3.8 APG, and a .393 3PT%, the veteran point guard has continued to make life miserable for opposing perimeter players with his aggressive defense. The 30-year-old may not be in line for a massive payday, but he has proven he can still be an important contributor.
- Ivica Zubac, C, Clippers (RFA): Beverley’s teammate for the last two months, Zubac joined the Clippers in the most baffling deadline deal of 2019. The young center had been enjoying a breakout year for the Lakers, who gave him up for Mike Muscala. Zubac has been ever better for the Clippers than he was for the Lakers, averaging 8.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 0.9 BPG in 19.7 MPG since his arrival. His impact on defense has been particularly noticeable — the Clips’ 103.9 defensive rating with Zubac on the court would rank first in the NBA, and is 6.2 points better than their rating when he sits.
- Seth Curry, G, Trail Blazers: Like Beverley, Curry missed the 2017/18 season due to an injury, raising questions about what sort of player we’d see when he returned. The Trail Blazers, who signed Curry to a one-year, $2.8MM contract last July, have to be thrilled with their investment, as the 28-year-old’s .448 3PT% ranks third in the NBA, just ahead of his brother’s mark. Players who can knock down outside shots at that rate tend to do pretty well on the open market these days.
- Danuel House, F, Rockets (RFA): With apologies to Derrick Rose, whose impressive comeback season was marred to some extent by ongoing health concerns, House claims the last spot on my shortlist due to his unexpected impact on the Rockets. Houston’s season got off to a rough start, and the absence of reliable three-and-D players like Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute was a factor. House helped right the ship with his solid play on both ends of the court, as he shot 42.0% from downtown and forced the Rockets’ hand in a contract dispute — the team had to convert House’s two-way contract into a one-year NBA deal, putting him in line for restricted free agency in July. He’ll certainly draw more interest this time around than he did a year ago.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Vanderbilt Hiring Jerry Stackhouse As Head Coach
APRIL 5: Stackhouse has agreed to become the new Vanderbilt head coach, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link). ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports (via Twitter) that the two sides reached an agreement on a six-year contract.
APRIL 1: Grizzlies assistant coach Jerry Stackhouse is negotiating a contract to become Vanderbilt’s head coach, Jon Rothstein of SI.com tweets.
Nothing has been finalized but all indications are that Stackhouse will take over the Commodores’ program. Stackhouse would replace Bryce Drew, who was fired after the season. Vanderbilt went winless in 18 Southeastern Conference games.
Stackhouse joined Memphis’ staff last summer after interviewing for the head coaching jobs at Charlotte, New York and Toronto. He doesn’t have college coaching experience but has been in the professional ranks since retiring as a player after 18 years in the league. He was an assistant under Dwane Casey with the Raptors and coached their G League affiliate, Raptors 905, to two championship finals.
Vanderbilt’s athletic director Malcolm Turner is the former president of the G League.
Hornets assistant Ronald Nored was also a candidate for the Commodores’ job, Evan Daniels of 247Sports tweets.
Lonzo Ball Parts Ways With Agent
An ankle injury has sidelined Lonzo Ball since January 19, but 2019 has still been an eventful year so far for the Lakers point guard. After filing suit against Big Baller Brand co-founder Alan Foster, Ball has now parted ways with longtime agent Harrison Gaines, according to ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne, who classifies the split as a mutual decision.
“Harrison Gaines has been a trusted advisor and close friend for many years,” Ball said in a statement to ESPN. “He guided my NBA career with integrity and always had my best interests at heart.”
Despite the timing, Ball said that the decision to move on from Gaines was unrelated to the dispute with Foster. According to Ball, Gaines “always had my back,” and their relationship “will always be bigger than basketball,” as Shelburne relays.
With Gaines no longer in the picture, Ball is in the market for new representation, and multiple agents have reached out to gauge his interest, reports Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports. However, Haynes says that most of those agents “became uninterested” once they were notified that LaVar Ball is still very much involved in his son’s decisions.
As Haynes details, LaVar has met with a few NBA agents on behalf of Lonzo, and CAA is currently viewed as the favorite to represent the former No. 2 overall pick. Still, there are concerns about LaVar’s ongoing involvement and the family’s financial standing in regard to Big Baller Brand, sources tell Haynes.
Haynes’ report also notes that LaVar has been inquiring with agencies on whether they have the power to put his three sons – Lonzo, LiAngelo Ball, and LaMelo Ball – on the same NBA team. There would be multiple roadblocks in the way of such a plan, not least of which is the fact that LiAngelo is not considered an NBA-caliber player.
In addition to dealing with LaVar and the Ball family, Lonzo’s next agent figures to be instrumental in trying to secure a new shoe endorsement deal for the point guard, Haynes notes. Lonzo’s on-court future remains uncertain as well, as he could once again be at the center of trade talks this offseason if and when the Lakers re-engage the Pelicans on Anthony Davis.
Grizzlies Sign Tyler Zeller
9:53am: The Grizzlies have made it official, announcing Zeller’s signing in a press release.
8:44am: The Grizzlies are signing veteran center Tyler Zeller for the rest of the season, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (via Twitter). The release of shooting guard Dusty Hannahs created the roster spot necessary to add Zeller.
Zeller, 29, has logged 408 career NBA games over the course of seven seasons, but has spent most of the 2018/19 campaign as a free agent. After being waived by the Bucks in the preseason, the big man’s only NBA action this season came in March when he signed a 10-day contract with Atlanta and appeared briefly in two games for the Hawks.
The Grizzlies had signed Hannahs via a hardship exception and continue to qualify for that exception because they have four players who have missed at least three consecutive games and remain sidelined. As such, Zeller will become Memphis’ 16th man. And, as Chris Herrington of The Daily Memphian observes (via Twitter), once Zeller plays, the Grizzlies will tie an NBA record by using their 28th player this season.
While the decision to replace a young developmental player with a veteran for the final few days of the season may appear odd for a lottery-bound team, both of the Grizzlies’ centers are currently on the shelf — Jonas Valanciunas is out for the season with an ankle injury, while Joakim Noah continues to be listed as day-to-day with a knee injury.
Plus, despite their place in the standings, the Grizzlies are still very focused on winning games to finish the season. The team would like to make sure its top-eight protected 2018 first-round pick conveys to Boston this year so it doesn’t carry over to the 2020 draft. Currently, the Grizzlies are tied for sixth in the reverse standings at 31-47, but the Mavericks (31-47), Wizards (32-47), and Pelicans (32-47) are bunched up with them, creating a path out of the lottery’s top eight if they can finish strong.
Assuming it’s finalized today, Zeller’s rest-of-season contract will carry a modest cap hit of $51,725, keeping Memphis out of tax territory.
Knicks Notes: Jordan, Culver, DSJ, Offseason
When the Knicks acquired DeAndre Jordan two months ago as part of the seven-player trade that sent Kristaps Porzingis to Dallas, the veteran center appeared to be destined for the buyout market along with Enes Kanter and Wesley Matthews.
However, the Knicks had other plans for Jordan, keeping him in the mix despite cutting back his role. With Jordan out of the lineup the last few games, Steve Popper of Newsday lauds the 30-year-old for accepting his new role without complaint.
“This is very strange for me,” Jordan said. “I’ve never done this before … At the same time, I know the development of these guys is very important. That’s something that I’m down for.
“We had a few conversations,” Jordan said of head coach David Fizdale. “There was definitely some back-and-forth. He knows how much I love to play and how much I want to compete. Overall, we came to the decision together. Everybody thought it was best for the young guys to, like I keep saying, see these guys play and play in bulk minutes.”
Jordan will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, and while the Knicks will have the cap flexibility to bring him back, their pursuit of elite free agents may compromise their ability to do so.
Here’s more out of New York:
- While Knicks fans are hopeful of landing a draft pick that gives the team a chance at a player like Zion Williamson or Ja Morant, the odds favor that pick falling to No. 4 or 5 instead. In that scenario, a player like Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver could intrigue the franchise. Marc Berman of The New York Post takes an extended look at Culver, who remains alive in the Final Four and was scouted by the Knicks’ brass earlier in the NCAA tournament.
- Dennis Smith Jr. may not play again for the Knicks this season, Berman writes in a separate story for The New York Post. Smith recently re-aggravated a back issue and is uncertain if he’ll be able to return for any of the club’s final four games.
- While it’s certainly a positive that the Knicks will enter the offseason armed with cap room, there’s no guarantee that the front office will use that space wisely, Sean Deveney of Sporting News writes in his preview of New York’s offseason.