NBA Teams In The Tax For 2019/20
While 2019’s salary cap increase wasn’t as substantial as 2016’s, the jump from last season’s $101,869,000 cap to this year’s $109,140,000 represents the second-biggest increase in NBA history.
The luxury tax line increased along with the salary cap, getting a bump all the way from $123,733,000 to $132,627,000 and creating some breathing room for many cap-strapped teams around the league. Still, despite the extra financial flexibility in 2019/20, a handful of teams find themselves above that tax threshold as opening night nears.
Clubs have until the end of the 2019/20 regular season to adjust team salary in an effort to get back under the tax line, and at least one of the teams listed below – the Thunder – figures to push hard to get out of tax territory. But most of the other clubs on the current list of projected taxpayers will have little leverage if they try to dump salary, so it won’t be easy to cut costs.
With the help of salary information from Basketball Insiders and Early Bird Rights, here are the teams projected to be in the tax for ’19/20 as of September 1, 2019:
Portland Trail Blazers
Approximately $12.4MM over tax line
All of the big long-term contracts the Trail Blazers signed in 2016 – for Evan Turner, Allen Crabbe, Maurice Harkless, and Meyers Leonard – are now off the team’s books. However, three of those deals had to be swapped for lucrative contracts belonging to Hassan Whiteside and Kent Bazemore. Throw in huge cap hits for stars Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, plus an eight-figure salary for Jusuf Nurkic, and Portland projects to have the NBA’s highest team salary for the 2019/20 season.
Since last season was the only recent instance the Blazers have paid the tax, they don’t have repeater concerns yet. As it stands, they have a projected tax bill just over $22MM.
Golden State Warriors
Approximately $5.9MM over tax line
The Warriors‘ team salary falls in between the tax line ($132,627,000) and the tax apron ($138,928,000), which acts as a hard cap for the team this season. Golden State is much closer to the latter than the former, with only about $407K in breathing room below the apron.
That figure assumes Alfonzo McKinnie – who has a non-guaranteed contract – holds the 14th roster spot. The Warriors don’t currently have enough room below the hard cap to start the season with a 15th man.
The Warriors project to have a tax bill in the $15MM range, since they’re subject to repeater penalties after finishing in tax territory in 2016, 2018, and 2019. If not for the repeater penalties, that projection would only be in the neighborhood of $9MM.
[RELATED: Recent History Of NBA Taxpaying Teams]
Miami Heat
Approximately $3.8MM over tax line
Like the Warriors, the Heat are in the territory between the tax line and the apron. Some bonuses push Miami’s total team salary to within approximately $855K of the hard cap (per ESPN’s Bobby Marks), but those incentives won’t count against the team’s cap or tax bill if they go unearned.
Our projection for Miami assumes the team will retain Duncan Robinson and Kendrick Nunn, who don’t yet have fully guaranteed salaries. With those two players and their other 12 guaranteed deals, the Heat would have a projected tax bill a little shy of $6MM.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Approximately $921K over tax line
The Thunder have managed to cut costs significantly so far this summer as they’ve retooled their roster, most notably sending Jerami Grant to Denver in a salary-dump deal for a first-round pick.
Oklahoma City briefly inched below the tax line, but only had 13 players under contract at the time. Signing a mandatory 14th (Justin Patton) pushed the club back into tax territory for the time being. Even after accounting for repeater penalties, the Thunder’s tax bill would be pretty modest (about $2.3MM) if they don’t add any more salary, but I expect the team to do all it can to make a cost-cutting trade to get out of the tax altogether.
Although only four teams project to be taxpayers for now, several other clubs – including the Cavaliers, Nuggets, Pistons, and Magic – are within spitting distance of that threshold.
A rebuilding team like Cleveland will likely be extra careful not to finish the season in the tax –particularly since the Cavs would be subject to repeater penalties. Would-be contenders like Denver may be more inclined to pay a small tax bill if it means acquiring one more impact player for a postseason run.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Remaining Offseason Questions: Northwest Division
NBA teams have now completed the brunt of their offseason work, with the draft and free agency practically distant memories. Still, with training camps a month away, many clubs around the league have at least one or two outstanding issues they’ve yet to address.
We’re in the midst of looking at all 30 NBA teams, separating them by division and checking in on a key outstanding question that each club still needs to answer before the 2019/20 regular season begins.
After focusing on the Atlantic, Southeast, and Central last week, we’re moving onto the Northwest today. Let’s dive in…
Denver Nuggets
Will Bol Bol sign a two-way contract?
A year ago, Bol was considered a potential 2019 lottery pick. This spring, he fell all the way to No. 44 in the draft due to health concerns. Now it’s not even clear if he’ll sign a standard NBA contract for his rookie season. No player drafted as high as 44th overall has signed a two-way deal as his first NBA contract, but that’s said to be the Nuggets‘ preference for the young center.
From the Nuggets’ perspective, slotting Bol into their two-way opening makes sense. As cap expert Albert Nahmad recently explained, keeping Bol on a two-way contract would allow the club to avoid moving precariously close to the tax line (certain players’ unlikely incentives could subsequently push Denver’s team salary beyond that threshold). It would also allow the organization to bring him along slowly, developing him and making sure he’s healthy in the G League before he’s eventually promoted to the NBA roster.
Of course, it makes sense that Bol would be reluctant to embrace such an arrangement, and he has some leverage if he wants to force the issue. In order to retain his rights, the Nuggets must offer a one-year rookie contract, and Bol could accept it, putting him on track for restricted free agency next summer.
Still, it might be in his best interest to accept Denver’s proposal and trust that the team will do right by him. Monte Morris and Torrey Craig started on two-way deals before they were promoted to the Nuggets’ 15-man roster and became key parts of the club’s rotation. Bol could be next to follow that path.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Does Gersson Rosas have any major moves in the works?
When Rosas took over as the Timberwolves‘ new head of basketball operations this spring, there was plenty of chatter about how his Rockets roots and his apprenticeship under Daryl Morey would make him inclined to swing for the fences more than most first-time general managers.
We haven’t seen much of that so far in Rosas’ first offseason in Minnesota, though it wasn’t for lack of trying — the Wolves reportedly made a serious push for D’Angelo Russell before the All-Star point guard opted to join the Warriors.
Not many blockbuster trades are completed during the preseason, but given Rosas’ reputation, he won’t be averse to exploring the market. Even though moving Andrew Wiggins‘ contract would be tough, the Wolves could theoretically make a big splash – like acquiring veteran point guard Chris Paul – without including Wiggins in the package.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Will the Thunder be able to find a taker for Chris Paul?
Speaking of Paul, the Thunder have been adamant that they’re willing to take a patient approach on the trade market and even start the season with the nine-time All-Star on their roster. Still, I imagine the rebuilding club would jump at the opportunity to send him to a contending team for the right offer.
Paul’s salary ($38.5MM) makes him the NBA’s second-highest-paid player for the 2019/20 season and will make it difficult for Oklahoma City to move him. Even if a suitor could comfortably match salaries, Paul’s two extra guaranteed years hurt his trade value, and the Thunder will be reluctant to attach any draft picks from their treasure trove to help grease the skids on a deal.
Various CBA restrictions for teams around the NBA will limit the market for Paul too. The Lakers would be a logical trade partner, but most of their roster can’t be traded until at least December 15. The Heat might typically have interest in an impact player like Paul, but they’re hard-capped and want their draft picks back from the Thunder.
The Thunder will revisit the CP3 trade market this fall, but finding a favorable deal won’t be easy.
Portland Trail Blazers
What is Jusuf Nurkic‘s recovery timetable?
A broken leg ended Nurkic’s 2018/19 season in March, and he’s not expected to be healthy to start the 2019/20 season. Beyond that, the Trail Blazers haven’t offered up many details on Nurkic’s recovery timetable.
In May, Blazers beat writer Jason Quick speculated that the veteran center might be ready to return to action just before the 2020 All-Star break, which would sideline him for more than half the season. Nurkic will certainly look to beat that timeline, but the Blazers should get a better idea this fall of whether or not that will be possible.
Portland traded for Hassan Whiteside and signed Pau Gasol this offseason, adding the pair of veterans to a center rotation that also figures to include up-and-coming youngster Zach Collins. Assuming decent health, that trio can comfortably hold the fort at the five until February, but Nurkic is still the most talented player of the bunch (for now, at least) and he’ll help solidify the club’s frontcourt when he returns.
Utah Jazz
How will the Jazz’s top players perform in the 2019 World Cup?
Several of Utah’s impact players are participating in the 2019 World Cup in China over the next couple weeks. However, unlike the Celtics – who have four players on Team USA – the Jazz have their players spread across several national teams. Donovan Mitchell is the only one on Team USA’s roster, with Rudy Gobert representing France and Joe Ingles playing for Australia.
While they may not have the same chemistry-building potential that the Celtics’ quartet does, Utah’s World Cup participants have a great opportunity to make an impression on an international stage and boost their stock heading into the 2019/20 season.
We’ve seen plenty of players over the last couple decades follow up strong World Cup or Olympic performances with breakout years for their NBA teams, and Mitchell in particular could be a prime candidate to follow that template. It’ll be worth keeping a close eye on him and the rest of Utah’s international representatives as they look to make deep runs in the FIBA tournament.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Quincy Pondexter Excited For Future In Coaching
In a conversation with Jabari Young of The Athletic, former Spurs swingman and NBA veteran Quincy Pondexter reveals his post-playing career goal of becoming a head coach in the NBA, an aspiration that the 31-year-old is already working toward every day.
“One day,” Pondexter said, “I want to be the man on the sideline that not only has a positive influence but a helluva coach. And someone that gets wins.”
According to Young, Pondexter’s urge to become a head coach started a few years ago, in 2015, when he started an AAU program known as California United. He struggled to find a coach to enact his vision, so he decided to take on the responsibility of coaching the team himself.
“I wanted to make sure it was done the right way,” Pondexter recalled. “I said, ‘You know what? I’m going to do it because I don’t trust other people.'”
Pondexter gathered a group of close friends to assist with the team but ended up funding all travel, boarding, and food himself. The money he had, but the time he needed to put in and the issues he needed to overcome in order to be successful was something that he learned throughout the process.
“There is so much you have to deal with,” Pondexter said, “and that is a lot of kids that you’re responsible for, but it’s a great honor to be trusted with that.”
Pondexter remains an unrestricted free agent, though he still hopes to land a deal with a team that would give him the opportunity to play “meaningful minutes.”
And-Ones: World Cup, China, Thabeet
In a special piece for ESPN, Mark Woods takes an in-depth look (link) at all 32 teams vying to win the 2019 FIBA World Cup, which will be decided in Beijing on September 15, two weeks from today.
While recognizing that Team USA is the favorite, Woods does not have the Americans taking home the championship. His group winners include host nation China and the aforementioned U.S., in addition to Argentina, Spain, Serbia, Greece, France, and Australia.
Woods believes that all but two of the group winners will reach the quarterfinals, with Nigeria and Lithuania, finishing second in group play to Argentina and Australia respectively, replacing group winners France and China among the final eight teams.
Ultimately, Woods sees Team USA falling short of the championship game, with Australia falling to Serbia in the final. Be sure to tell us what you think in one of our latest Community Shootaround posts, here.
There’s more news from around the basketball world:
- According to Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium, the Chinese Basketball Association is implementing a new guideline barring a player who is serving a drug or violence-related ban/suspension in another league from signing in the CBA. As Charania notes, the rule would prohibit someone like Tyreke Evans from signing with a team in the CBA.
- After losing their first game in the 2019 FIBA World Cup to Matthew Dellavedova and Australia, Canada head coach Nick Nurse told the media that his team will have to play “extraordinary basketball” to beat Lithuania on Tuesday and advance past group play, per Lithuanian basketball reporter Donatas Urbonas (h/t to Sportando).
- After working out for the Knicks once already (link), former No, 2 overall pick Hasheem Thabeet will continue to play in 5-on-5 scrimmages with the Knicks next week, reports Ian Begley of SportsNet New York. Begley adds that Thabeet will also work out a second time for the Bucks in about a week’s time.
Eric Gordon Discusses Contract Extension
Rockets guard Eric Gordon talked about his new four-year extension on Saturday in a series of tweets from Mark Berman of Fox 26 in Houston. Gordon and the team reached an agreement late Friday night on a deal that will pay him roughly $75.6MM.
The deal includes a unique clause that guarantees the final year only if he makes an All-Star team or Houston wins a championship. Gordon will make $14,057,730 this year and was set to be a free agent next summer.
He has been a productive scorer for the Rockets, averaging 16.8 PPG since signing with the team in the summer of 2016. He has also put together his three healthiest seasons since he was a rookie, appearing in 75, 69 and 68 games over the past three years.
“Definitely means a lot,” Gordon told Berman. “We knew we needed to get it done before the season started. I knew how important I was to them and how important it was to me to be on a really good team and do well. … Houston is home. It’s very special. It’s definitely exciting. I’m all about team success and me being a big part of that. They know my work ethic. They know my kind of leadership and what I bring to the table. Ownership wants to win.”
Gordon is the latest key piece of Houston’s foundation to reach a long-term agreement with the team. James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Clint Capela are all under contract through 2022/23, while P.J. Tucker is hoping to receive an extension as well.
“It made the decision even easier,” Gordon said. “Now that we’re here for a long time, it’s easier to do what’s necessary and right to win the championship.”
Jared Cunningham To Work Out For Rockets
Jared Cunningham, a former first-round pick who spent time with six NBA teams, will participate in a free agent workout with the Rockets this week, tweets Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated.
The 28-year-old shooting guard hasn’t been in the NBA since he played a combined 44 games for the Cavaliers and Bucks during the 2015/16 season. He was also traded to the Magic that season, but was waived immediately. He has been overseas since then, spending one year each in China and Germany before playing for Basket Brescia Leonessa in Italy last season.
Cleveland selected Cunningham with the 24th pick in the 2012 draft and traded him to the Mavericks the next day. He also had brief stops with the Hawks, Kings and Clippers.
With only nine guaranteed contracts, the Rockets are looking for players who can compete for roster spots. They have 17 players headed to camp, along with the possible addition of Terrence Jones.
Andre Roberson Ready For Another Shot At Comeback
Andre Roberson “feels really good” as he tries to return to the NBA following a long injury-related absence, his father John tells Erik Horne of The Oklahoman. Roberson has been sidelined since rupturing his left patellar tendon in January of 2018. He had hoped to return last season, but his comeback was derailed by two injuries during rehab.
“I know that was disappointing for him, not being able to go out there and help the way he wanted to help,” John Roberson said. “For me, it’s more important for him to be 100 percent as opposed to going out there and messing himself up further, or being a detriment to the team as opposed to being someone that’s going to actually help the team.”
Before the injury, Roberson was building a reputation as one of the NBA’s best perimeter defenders. Even though he never averaged more than 6.6 PPG in a season or shot better than 31.1% on 3-pointers, he was a valuable starter on a Thunder team that was consistently among the league’s best.
Roberson was optimistic that he would be ready early in the 2018/19 season, but an avulsion fracture was discovered in November that set back his rehab schedule. His father said it became a matter of “mental warfare.”
“‘Rest. Let your leg heal. Stop doing so much. Let it heal all the way then you can recondition,’” John said. “I know he wanted to stay in condition while this healing was going on just in case he did happen to get on the court and start playing. But that’s something you’ve got to heal totally in order to start getting back to 100 percent.”
Entering the final season of a three-year, $30MM contract, Roberson faces an uncertain NBA future. The Thunder have made major changes since he last played, trading away Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Jerami Grant this summer, while bringing in Chris Paul, Danilo Gallinari and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the new foundation of the team.
It’s not clear how Roberson fits into that new group, but he’s eager for a chance to find out.
“He feels really good,” his father said. “When you get injured, it takes a toll on you mentally because you’re constantly doubting yourself and that things are going to hold up mentally. I think that’s the biggest hurdle he’s had to get over. I think he’s at that point where training camp will tell a whole lot.”
World Cup Notes: Team USA, Mitchell, Bogut, Hachimura
Balanced scoring helped Team USA pull away from the Czech Republic in today’s FIBA World Cup opener, writes Brian Windhorst of ESPN. Celtics teammates Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum combined for 20 points in the first half to help the Americans build a lead. Donovan Mitchell and Harrison Barnes took over in the second half of the 88-67 victory.
Coach Gregg Popovich is emphasizing defensive energy from his team, which is seeking a third straight World Cup title. He plans to rotate players to keep them fresh, as 10 saw playing time in the first quarter today. Team USA gets a tougher test on Tuesday, facing a Turkish team with NBA players Cedi Osman, Ersan Ilyasova and Furkan Korkmaz.
There’s more World Cup news this morning:
- Popovich has chosen Mitchell, one of his youngest players at age 22, to be among the team leaders, Windhorst relays in a separate story. The World Cup experience could be a huge step for Mitchell, who has already gotten noticed for his leadership abilities with the Jazz. “He has a propensity for leadership and that’s how I spent my time with him,” Popovich said. “I’m not going to teach him how to shoot better or jump better or dribble better. But he has the intelligence and the willingness to become a leader and I think that’d be great. Not just for our team but for his team.”
- Kevin Pelton of ESPN examines the talent on Team USA and projects 56.4 wins if it were an actual NBA team. That number, which would be the best in the league for the upcoming season, includes projections of 3.2 points per 100 possessions better than the league average on offense and 3.1 points per 100 possessions better on defense. He adds that even though the team may not be as strong as previous American squads, it still contains plenty of talent.
- Australia’s victory over the U.S. in an exhibition game last week reflects the progress that the Boomers have made and the way they look at the American team, Andrew Bogut tells Marc Stein of The New York Times. “That mind-set has changed,” Bogut said. “When I first joined the national team, we never really had that true belief of beating the U.S.A. Whereas now we genuinely think, if we play it the right way, we have a chance to beat them.”
- New Wizards GM Tommy Sheppard is in China to cheer on Rui Hachimura, according to Matt Weyrich of NBC Sports Washington. Washington selected Hachimura, who plays for Japan, with the ninth pick in this year’s draft.
Taj Gibson Always Wanted To Play For The Knicks
The Knicks didn’t land their top targets in free agency, but the players they did sign are determined to turn things around in New York, Taj Gibson tells Zach Braziller of The New York Post. Camp is still a month away, but Gibson said many of the players have been training together and staying in touch through an email chain.
“Everybody’s in the group chat, everybody’s talking, everybody’s getting together to work out together,” Gibson said. “The eagerness in guys (has stood out), guys are committed, guys are going to let the work show for itself.”
A rebuilding situation may seem odd for Gibson, considering his veteran status and history of being with winning teams. The 34-year-old has made the playoffs eight times during his 10 NBA seasons, although he missed last year with the Timberwolves despite a typically solid season in which he averaged 10.8 PPG and 6.5 RPG in 70 games.
However, Gibson was born in Brooklyn and still feels a strong connection to the area.
“I just always had it in the back of my mind, it was always one of those places I wanted to go,” he said. “I wasn’t scared of the opportunity. I was waiting for the right opportunity (to come here). I just jumped on it. I know they’ve had a lot of tough years, but when you win games, the city loves you. I’m looking forward trying to compete and playing hard.”
Gibson was one of several free agents the Knicks signed to short-term deals after Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving were off the board. Although Gibson has a two-year, $20MM contract, the second season only carries a $1MM guarantee. Bobby Portis, Wayne Ellington, Elfrid Payton and Reggie Bullock all received similar deals.
It’s a situation that could lead to massive turnover next summer, or perhaps even sooner as all the new players may be attractive to contenders at the trade deadline. For now, Gibson wants to enjoy the experience of playing in New York.
“It’s a dream come true and it’s a blessing, because I grew up a Knicks fan,” he said. “To be back home around my people, it’s amazing.”