Greg Monroe: Pistons Have ‘Upper Hand’
Greg Monroe gave his strongest indication yet that the Pistons are in the mix to re-sign him when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in July, telling Terry Foster of The Detroit News that the Pistons have the “upper hand.” Monroe said before the season and after that he wouldn’t rule out re-signing with Detroit, and agent David Falk said shortly after the All-Star break that Monroe would “absolutely” consider staying in the Motor City.
“I have ties here; I have been here my whole [adult] life,” Monroe said to Foster. “[The Pistons] drafted me, so of course I am going to listen to them with the same ear as I listen to everybody else. They have the upper hand.”
It’s not at all uncommon for soon-to-be free agents to profess their desire to remain with their incumbent teams, but Monroe went out of his way to avoid a commitment to the Pistons in restricted free agency last summer, signing a qualifying offer that gave him slightly less than $5.48MM. That’s a sharply discounted rate for the productive 24-year-old big man, but Monroe and Falk reportedly discouraged teams from presenting more lucrative offer sheets that would have given the Pistons the chance to match and tie him up long-term.
Falk denied a recent report from Frank Isola of the New York Daily News that Monroe’s departure for the Knicks this summer was “about as close to a done deal as you can get.” Monroe later expressed praise for Knicks president Phil Jackson while cautioning that he could see himself re-signing with the Pistons. The Lakers reportedly asked the Pistons about trading for Monroe before the deadline, and they and the Knicks figure to be among the many teams in pursuit. The Hawks were also reportedly planning to go after him as of early this season.
Monroe, No. 7 in our latest Free Agent Power Rankings, produced at a high rate once the Pistons waived Josh Smith in late December, as I examined when I looked in depth at Monroe’s free agent stock. The Pistons have a financial advantage, since they can offer five years and 7.5% raises instead of the four-year deal with 4.5% raises that other teams are limited to, but Monroe has already shown a willingness to make a financial sacrifice.
The Likelihood Of Each Qualifying Offer
Many players who are up for restricted free agency each summer end up as unrestricted free agents instead. Qualifying offers aren’t set at lucrative amounts, but front offices are reluctant to pay the price to match competing offers from other NBA teams for players whose prospects of making more than the minimum salary are slim. The same is true with some players who are worth more than the minimum but don’t quite measure up to the sort of salary their qualifying offer would entail. Others end up as unrestricted free agents largely because their teams prefer to keep cap flexibility.
It doesn’t necessarily mean that a team has no intention of signing a player if it fails to tender a qualifying offer. There’s no rule against re-signing such players. It just indicates that the team is unwilling to have the amount of the qualifying offer on its books for that player as free agency opens in July.
Teams must decide whether to tender qualifying offers by the end of June, and much can change between now and then. Still, there are enough cases that are fairly clear with the regular season in the books. We’ve categorized each potential restricted agent into a tier based on the likelihood that his team makes the qualifying offer necessary for him to indeed become a restricted free agent. These categories serve as de facto ranking tiers for this year’s restricted free agents, though considerations are made for the respective values of each qualifying offer and the player’s contextual fit with his team. The qualifying offer amounts are listed next to every name. The categories are below, beginning with those who will almost certainly be tendered qualifying offers in the “Slam dunks” category:
Slam dunks
- Patrick Beverley, Rockets ($2,725,003)*
- Jimmy Butler, Bulls ($4,433,683)*
- Draymond Green, Warriors ($2,725,003)
- Tobias Harris, Magic ($4,433,683)*
- Reggie Jackson, Pistons ($4,433,683)*
- Cory Joseph, Spurs ($3,034,892)
- Enes Kanter, Thunder ($7,471,412)
- Brandon Knight, Suns ($4,790,680)
- Kawhi Leonard, Spurs ($4,433,683)*
- Khris Middleton, Bucks ($2,725,003)*
- Tristan Thompson, Cavaliers ($6,777,589)
More likely than not
- Pero Antic, Hawks ($1,562,500)
- Norris Cole, Pelicans ($3,036,927)
- Jae Crowder, Celtics ($1,181,348)
- Matthew Dellavedova, Cavaliers ($1,147,276)
- Joe Ingles, Jazz ($1,045,059)
- Iman Shumpert, Cavaliers ($4,433,683)*
Could go either way
- Quincy Acy, Knicks ($1,181,348)
- Will Barton, Nuggets ($1,181,348)
- Aron Baynes, Spurs ($2,596,250)
- Bismack Biyombo, Hornets ($4,045,894)*
- Nick Calathes, Grizzlies ($1,147,276)
- Gigi Datome, Celtics ($2,187,500)
- Justin Holiday, Warriors ($1,147,276)
- Kyle O’Quinn, Magic ($1,181,348)
- Henry Sims, Sixers ($1,181,348)
- Kyle Singler, Thunder ($2,725,003)*
- Jeff Taylor, Hornets ($1,181,348)
- Mirza Teletovic, Nets ($4,210,125)
Probably not
- Vander Blue, Lakers ($1,147,276)
- Ian Clark, Nuggets ($1,147,276)
- Chris Copeland, Pacers ($3,918,750)
- Joel Freeland, Trail Blazers ($3,766,890)
- Justin Hamilton, Timberwolves ($1,147,276)
- Robbie Hummel, Timberwolves ($1,147,276)
- Bernard James, Mavericks ($1,181,348)
- Jerome Jordan, Nets ($1,147,276)
- Ognjen Kuzmic, Warriors ($1,147,276)
- Arinze Onuaku, Timberwolves ($1,147,276)
- Glenn Robinson III, Sixers ($1,045,059)
- Alexey Shved, Knicks ($4,102,571)
- Travis Wear, Knicks ($1,045,059)
- Shayne Whittington, Pacers ($1,045,059)
- Derrick Williams, Kings ($4,045,894)*
- Jeff Withey, Pelicans ($1,147,276)
* — These players had the values of their qualifying offer adjusted via the starter criteria. We went in depth on them right here.
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.
Pacific Notes: Cousins, Johnson, Green
DeAndre Jordan changed the first game of the Spurs series in a positive way for the Clippers, as Dan Woike of the Orange County Register chronicles, and his continued presence will be key in Game 2. Of course, whether Jordan is a presence for the Clips beyond this season isn’t known, since he’ll be a free agent, but it’d be tough for L.A. to let him go, since the team already has some $58MM on the books for next season and is without much cap flexibility to replace him. Here’s more from around the Pacific Division:
- Vivek Ranadive foresees an active offseason for the Kings but can’t envision a DeMarcus Cousins trade, and the Kings owner seemed annoyed Monday that Cousins’ name has been in trade rumors of late, as Ailene Voisin of The Sacramento Bee relays (Twitter links). “I don’t know why that stuff is out there,” Ranadive said.
- Wesley Johnson suggests the constantly changing roles throughout his NBA career have led to his inconsistency, while coach Byron Scott believes part of the problem is “between the ears,” observes Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. In any case, the Lakers are on the fence about re-signing Johnson, who’s started 121 games for them the last two seasons, even though he’d like to come back, as Medina details.
- Draymond Green is proving his value once more for the Warriors in their first-round series against the Pelicans, as SB Nation’s Tom Ziller examines. The Warriors have indicated they plan to match any offer for the soon-to-be restricted free agent.
George Lucas To Enter Draft
Brazilian point guard George Lucas will enter this year’s draft, agent Alex Saratsis tells Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress (Twitter link). Lucas, aka George de Paula, is the 30th-best prospect in this year’s draft according to Givony, but he’s only 59th in Chad Ford’s ESPN.com rankings. Lucas joins two more prospects from overseas entering the draft — fellow Brazilian Lucas Dias, also known as Lucas Dias Silva, and German-born Paul Zipser, both combo forwards, as Givony also reports (Twitter links).
Lucas, who’ll turn 19 next month, has a decent chance to follow the footsteps of Bruno Caboclo from the Brazilian team Pinheiros/Sky to the first round of the draft. The 6’6″ Lucas has size, but he’s played only a total of 26 minutes across six games for Pinheiros/Sky this season, scoring 15 points. He put up three points in nearly 13 minutes of action at the recent Nike Hoops Summit.
Zipser is an athletic small forward who can shoot and defend well, according to Givony, who lists power forward as another NBA positional fit. At 6’8″ and 21 years old, he’s the No. 73 prospect on Givony’s list, while Ford ranks him 99th.
Dias, another Pinheiros/Sky player, saw more action for the team, averaging 4.1 points and 2.5 rebounds in 11.3 minutes per game. The 6’9″ 19-year-old is this year’s 75th-best prospect, according to Givony, while Ford doesn’t have him within his top 100.
International prospects have until June 15th to withdraw from the draft, as our list of draft-related deadlines shows. It wouldn’t be surprising if one or more of these three entrants decide to pull out after taking part in workouts and showcases, though that’s just my speculation. Lucas and Dias intend to participate in the NBA combine and the Adidas EuroCamp if invited, Givony tweets.
Phil Jackson On Draft, Free Agency, Carmelo
The triangle, the presence of Carmelo Anthony, and the past success that Phil Jackson‘s staff has enjoyed will be the selling points for the Knicks in free agency this summer, Jackson said today to reporters, including Ian Begley of ESPNNewYork.com (Twitter link). Of course, that staff didn’t have much success this season, a 17-65 debacle for New York, and Jackson acknowledged that he doesn’t expect to suddenly win a title next year, notes Frank Isola of the New York Daily News (on Twitter). Instead, the Zen Master is shooting for a playoff berth and a winning record, as Chris Herring of The Wall Street Journal relays (Twitter link). Here’s more from his chat about his plans for achieving that:
- The Knicks will look for defenders and a player who can get to the basket, Jackson said, as Begley notes in a pair of tweets. Jackson also suggested that the team sorely needs a rim-protecting big man, Herring adds (on Twitter).
- Jackson suggested he would be more likely to trade New York’s first-round pick if it falls to fifth, according to Marc Berman of the New York Post (Twitter link). There’s a 12.3% chance the Knicks end up with the fifth pick after the lottery, as the odds show. Should the Knicks keep their pick, a big man will be the priority, Jackson said, tweets Adam Zagoria of SNY.tv. Jackson also indicated that he likes the depth of the draft through the top 15 prospects, as Zagoria passes along (Twitter link).
- Regardless of how the draft shakes out, Jackson doesn’t expect to end up with an immediate game-changer, as Herring relays (Twitter link). “[Our pick] isnt going to step on the court immediately and be an MVP,” Jackson said. “So a lot of our contingencies are on free agency. They have to be.”
- The Knicks may have to “sit on our hands” for a year as their top draft pick develops, Jackson suggested, as Zagoria chronicles in a full piece. “So we’re certainly not going to walk away from a situation like that even if it takes the fact that we might have to sit on our hands for a year in the growth process and watch Carmelo come back off an injury and then regenerate for another year after this, provide more support as we go forward,” Jackson said.
- Jackson seemed to convey a measure of displeasure about Anthony’s decision to play in the All-Star Game despite the ailing knee that kept him out the rest of the season, as Herring relays (Twitter links). Anthony “pushed himself” to play, Jackson said, according to Herring. “[Him playing in the All-Star Game] wasn’t that important to us, but it was important to him,” Jackson said.
- Jackson responded affirmatively when asked if he’d be OK with merely setting the foundation for the Knicks to win a championship rather than winning a title during his time with the team, Herring tweets. Jackson just completed the first year of a five-year contract, and there have been hints that he might not stay the entire term.
Caris LeVert To Stay Out Of Draft
Projected first-round pick Caris LeVert will stay for another year at the University of Michigan rather than enter this year’s draft, the versatile 20-year-old junior announced through the school. LeVert was the No. 24 prospect with Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress and No. 29 in the rankings that Chad Ford of ESPN.com compiles.
The news isn’t altogether surprising, since he suffered a season-ending broken left foot in January, though with Syracuse’s Chris McCullough headed to the draft despite a torn ACL, LeVert wouldn’t have been alone among prospective draftees recovering from serious injuries. LeVert averaged 14.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists in 35.8 minutes per game to go along with 40.5% three-point shooting for the Wolverines in 18 appearances this season. At 6’7″, he’s a utility player, with Givony listing him as a point guard and a shooting guard while Ford has him as a small forward.
LeVert’s still relatively young and won’t turn 21 until August, so NBA teams will be disinclined to look askance at his age when he’s automatically eligible for the draft as a senior next year. He’s among more than a dozen prospects who were within either Ford’s or Givony’s top 60 to decide against the draft, as our early entrants tracker shows, but few of them were regarded as likely first-rounders like LeVert.
Mike Budenholzer Wins Coach Of The Year
Mike Budenholzer has won the NBA’s Coach of the Year award, the league announced. The Hawks bench boss edged first-year Warriors head man Steve Kerr for the honor. Bucks coach Jason Kidd finished a distant third.
Budenholzer took an injury-hit club that finished 38-44 in the regular season to a seventh game against the top-seeded Pacers last season, a playoff performance that foreshadowed what was to come in 2014/15. The Hawks zoomed to the top of the Eastern Conference with a 17-0 January, and they won 19 games in a row, the fifth-longest single-season winning streak in NBA history. Atlanta accomplished those feats and won 60 games without a player widely considered a superstar, and only Al Horford, who makes $12MM, earning as much as $10MM this season.
The success that Budenholzer had on the bench was even more impressive considering the turmoil surrounding the franchise. Controlling owner Bruce Levenson self-reported a racially-charged email and decided to sell the team, and GM Danny Ferry has been on a leave of absence in the wake of his own racially insensitive remarks, leaving Budenholzer as the acting GM in his place. Budenholzer is up for Executive of the Year honors as well, though Hoops Rumors learned that it’s displeased some other executives around the league who wanted the chance to vote for Ferry.
Still, there’s no denying Budenholzer’s qualifications for Coach of the Year in just his second season as an NBA head man. None of the top four finishers, including fourth-place vote-getter Brad Stevens, have more than two years of NBA coaching experience. Fifth on the list is the long-tenured Gregg Popovich, under whom Budenholzer served as an assistant before taking the Hawks job. Budenholzer, Kerr, Kidd, Popovich and Tom Thibodeau were the coaches who received first-place votes. Media members cast the ballots, and the full results are here.
Atlantic Notes: Williams, Bogdanovic, Varnado
Lou Williams paid dividends for the Raptors, and it seems he believes the trade that brought him to Toronto this year was mutually beneficial. The guard reiterated Monday after winning the Sixth Man of the Year award that he wants to re-sign with the Raptors in free agency, as Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca observes.
“[Staying in Toronto] would be ideal for me,” he said. “Just the culture that they’re building here, just the identity that this team and this town has, I really want to be a part of it. I look forward to it. I don’t want to say hopefully we get something done, I’m really positive that we will get something done. I don’t see why not, at this point. So I just look forward to the future here.”
Here’s more from around the Atlantic Division:
- Bojan Bogdanovic struggled in his NBA playoff debut, but a player who has European postseason experience, as Bogdanovic does, has a measure of added value, notes Tim Bontemps of the New York Post. Bogdanovic is in his first NBA season after signing with the Nets for the taxpayer’s mid-level exception in the summer.
- Jarvis Varnado, who was in camp with the Sixers this past fall, has signed to play in Puerto Rico with Piratas de Quebradillas, Sportando’s Emiliano Carchia reports. Varnado also spent time with the Lakers D-League affiliate this season.
- The Sixers, who’ll pay Furkan Aldemir nearly $2.837MM in guaranteed salary next season, didn’t invest much in the former draft-and-stash prospect, but it still seems like too much for a player who showed limited skills, as John Gonzalez of CSNPhilly.com examines.
The Declining Relative Value Of The Mid-Level
The mid-level exception was originally intended to be just that — a middle ground between minimum and maximum salary contracts. Once the cap shoots up next year, the pendulum of the mid-level’s value will have swung decidedly toward the low end. While the cap may go up or down depending on the league’s basketball-related income, the latest collective bargaining agreement locked in set mid-level amounts. The non-taxpayer’s mid-level, sometimes referred to as the “full” mid-level, began at $5MM in the 2011/12 season and isn’t scheduled to eclipse $6MM until 2019/20. The taxpayer mid-level and room mid-level exceptions exhibit similarly measured growth, but the salary cap is projected to rise dramatically.
The league sent out preliminary projections that show the cap ballooning from $67.1MM to $108MM in a two-year period. Of course, the larger figure assumes there isn’t a work stoppage after the 2016/17 season, when the cap is projected to hit $89MM. If there are indeed labor negotiations in 2017, when both sides can opt out of the collective bargaining agreement, it would set up an intriguing dynamic within the union, headed these days by president Chris Paul and vice president LeBron James, both maximum-salary players. Rank-and-file players might like to see the mid-level exceptions — and the minimum-salary exception, which is also a set figure year-to-year — tied to rising revenues as well. It would offset what otherwise is set up to be a growing gap between the most highly paid players and everyone else.
This table shows the league’s projections for the salary cap and the luxury tax thresholds for each of the seasons remaining under the current collective bargaining agreement. It also includes a rough estimate of each maximum salary for those seasons (the NBA uses a different cap calculation for maximum salaries than the cap itself, so that’s why the percentages don’t align precisely). In the rightmost column is the non-taxpayer’s mid-level amount for each season.
A conceivable positive consequence for mid-level players as max salaries surge is that teams would be set up with greater wiggle room between the cap and the tax threshold, so it would be easier for them to spend the full mid-level amount. Fewer teams would cross the tax apron, a mark $4MM above the tax threshold, and thus fewer teams would be limited to only the taxpayer’s mid-level. Still, by that same logic, more teams would be liable to spend less than the cap, meaning they’d have only the room exception, the least lucrative of the three versions of the mid-level.
Front offices may be more hesitant to spend up to the max for as many players as they do now, so perhaps the NBA’s middle class will endure as teams split their resources. Still, a valuable systemic tool to provide for the skilled but less-than-elite stands to have much less effect.
Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.
Northwest Notes: Nuggets, Freeland, Wolves
There’s only one Northwest Division team in the playoffs, but it’s been a newsy day around the division, with the Thunder’s apparent interest in UConn coach Kevin Ollie as a possible replacement for Scott Brooks perhaps the most significant story. Concerns in the Blazers locker room about whether LaMarcus Aldridge will re-sign loom over Portland, while another team already has a coaching vacancy, and we’ll pass along the latest from Denver and other Northwest locales here:
- The Nuggets would prefer a coaching veteran to fill their vacancy, as Sean Deveney of The Sporting News writes within a larger look at the offseason ahead in Denver. Ty Lawson is probably staying put, Deveney adds, and the same can be said for Jusuf Nurkic, whom the Nuggets regard as a steal a season after he was the 16th overall pick.
- British-born Joel Freeland hasn’t played a large role for the Blazers in the three years since he came over from playing in Spain, but as his contract nears an end, he would prefer to remain in the NBA and with the Blazers, as he told Chema de Lucas of Gigantes Del Basket (translation via Mark Woods of MVP247.com). Portland can match offers for Freeland in free agency this summer, but that only applies to offers from other NBA teams, not overseas clubs, and the Blazers would first have to tender a qualifying offer of nearly $3.767MM.
- Flip Saunders said today that the Wolves will have a strong prospect regardless of whom they draft with their first-round pick, which could fall between No. 1 and No. 4, but Michael Rand of the Star Tribune figures the coach/exec must hope he can land a big man. Rand argues that’s because of the injury history of Nikola Pekovic, who’s under contract through 2017/18. Top two prospects Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor are big men and the players widely projected to go next are guards Emmanuel Mudiay and D’Angelo Russell. Saunders said he’ll draft the best available talent rather than for position.