2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Sacramento Kings
The Kings are searching for answers. This year, they extended their playoff drought to a 15th straight season, tied with the Clippers (1977-91) for the longest in NBA history. They also failed to move up in the lottery, meaning that – barring a trade – they will be picking ninth in this year’s draft. To make matters worse, Marvin Bagley, the team’s highest draft pick since 1989, came under fire this week for liking a tweet about getting him out of Sacramento.
It’s not all bad news, however. Point guard De’Aaron Fox took a star leap this season, averaging 25+ points per game for the first time in his career and becoming the driving force of the offense. Combo guard Tyrese Haliburton, taken with the 12th pick in last year’s
draft, was a revelation, averaging 13 PPG, 5.3 APG, and 1.3 SPG while shooting above 40% from three in 30 MPG. His stellar play earned him a berth on the All-Rookie First Team. Richaun Holmes also had a breakout year, cementing himself as a bona fide NBA starting center. The team also committed to bringing back head coach Luke Walton after a strong showing of support from the players.
While the Kings finished the season under .500 once again, their winning percentage (.431) was tied for the second-highest since 2008. While that may be a modest accomplishment, it does at least give reasons for optimism, though it wasn’t a step up from last season and the Western Conference is only getting stronger around them.
The Kings’ Offseason Plan:
The Kings’ decisions will start with the draft, where they have the ninth and 39th overall picks, but there will be plenty of choices that must be made from there. General manager Monte McNair has said that the Kings will be aggressive this off-season, whether in the draft, free agency, or trade.
As far as trades go, there are three clear candidates: Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, and Bagley.
Hield, at 28 years old, is the third-oldest player under contract in Sacramento and is coming off two successive seasons that were less productive than the one before them. He also doesn’t fit in a lineup with Fox and Haliburton, so if the Kings are looking to build around that backcourt pair, they would may have to either trade Hield or bring him off the bench, which isn’t easy to do with your second-highest paid player. Hield is still a high-level shooter who can put the ball on the floor, and is locked up on a long-term deal, which could prove attractive to teams looking to add shooting.
Barnes is on a descending contract over the next two seasons, and provides a good mix of defense and shot creation. The Kings would likely rather keep than deal him, as he fits nicely with the Fox/Haliburton pairing, but his continued presence is made more complicated by the unsolved puzzle of how the Kings build their frontcourt.
Bagley’s three seasons have been riddled with injuries, and even when healthy, he presents major question marks. Offensively, he’s more of a center than a power forward, but he’s not a good enough defender to anchor a defense. He showed the ability to make threes at a decent rate this season, hitting 34% on 2.5 attempts per game, and is a talented rebounder and athlete around the rim. Holmes helped cover for him defensively this year, but Holmes is a free agent, and the Kings may not be able to offer him enough to keep him in Sacramento long-term.
The Kings had the worst defense in the league last season, and if they’re unable to retain Holmes, it could get even worse, especially if they build around Bagley as their full-time center. There are a lot of interesting centers on the market this summer, but none are going to significantly change the trajectory of the team.
Bagley is also extension-eligible, and will be a free agent next summer, meaning the Kings have to decide how much they prioritize him. If they don’t want to invest in him long-term, packaging him with Hield, the ninth pick, or both, could be an enticing option for McNair, either as a draft-day trade up for a higher pick, or for a high-level prospect — the name Ben Simmons has been raised by some as a potential target, though the fit is questionable and it’s uncertain the Sixers would consider that enough of a return.
The other player who may figure into trade talks is guard Delon Wright. Wright is owed $8.5MM and will be an expiring contract. He brings an interesting blend of size, shooting and defense to either guard spot. The 29-year-old could help a playoff team off the bench, and could be useful in compiling salary in a trade for a non-star level player.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- De’Aaron Fox ($28,103,550) 1
- Buddy Hield ($22,768,890)
- Harrison Barnes ($20,284,091)
- Marvin Bagley III ($11,312,114)
- Delon Wright ($8,526,316)
- Tyrese Haliburton ($4,023,600)
- Jahmi’us Ramsey ($1,517,981)
- Robert Woodard ($1,517,981)
- Total: $98,054,523
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Damian Jones ($1,977,011) 2
- Justin James ($1,782,621) 3
- Chimezie Metu ($1,762,796) 4
- Total: $5,522,428
Restricted Free Agents
- Terence Davis ($1,897,476 qualifying offer / $1,897,476 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $1,897,476
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 9 overall pick ($4,603,320)
- No. 39 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $4,603,320
Extension-Eligible Players
- Marvin Bagley III (rookie scale)
- Harrison Barnes (veteran)
- Justin James (veteran)
- Delon Wright (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
Richaun Holmes ($6,506,955): Early Bird rights- Maurice Harkless ($4,347,600): Non-Bird rights
- Hassan Whiteside ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Corey Brewer ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights 6
- Total: $14,192,911
Offseason Cap Outlook
The Kings are in a bit of a tight spot financially, with only eight guaranteed deals taking up nearly $100MM in cap space. It’s likely they’ll operate as a team over the cap but under the luxury tax, but that will be impacted by how they approach Holmes’ free agency.
They won’t be able to offer Holmes more than the mid-level exception or the Early Bird exception (which is in the same neighborhood as the MLE) unless they open up cap room. It’s easy to envision Holmes drawing offers worth more than the mid-level on the open market, so if the Kings want to keep him following his breakout year, they may need to make a trade to create space.
With backup center Whiteside headed to free agency after a disappointing year, it seems likely that the Kings will guarantee the contracts of Jones and Metu, and 6’7″ wing James played well enough in his minutes to be worth keeping around another year.
Davis will be a big question for the Kings — after a strong rookie year that saw him named to 2020’s All-Rookie Second Team, the shooting guard saw his minutes dip in Toronto and was eventually traded to Sacramento, where he had some of the best games of his career. It’s unlikely that he’s offered a large deal in restricted free agency, making it easier for Sacramento to retain him. If they should do so, the Kings will have to find a way to re-balance their roster, as five of their 11 rostered players would be shooting guards.
Two-way player King only played six games for Sacramento, but scored 7.3 PPG on 36.4% from three in only 14 MPG. At 6’7″ and only 21 years old, he represents an interesting investment if the Kings should decide to sign him to a multiyear, partially guaranteed deal.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 7
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 7
- Trade exception: $3,600,000
- Trade exception: $2,009,019
Footnotes
- This is a projected value. Fox’s salary will be 25% of the 2021/22 salary cap.
- Jones’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 9.
- James’ salary is expected to become fully guaranteed in mid-August (exact date TBD).
- Metu’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($881,938) after August 9.
- Because he has been on a two-way contract with the Kings for two seasons, Guy is eligible for a standard minimum-salary qualifying offer.
- The cap hold for Brewer remains on the Kings’ books from a prior season because he hasn’t been renounced. He can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- These are projected values.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.
Southwest Notes: Mosley, Mavs Front Office, Kidd, Vaughn, Pelicans
Assistant coach Jamahl Mosley is expected to leave the Mavericks, writes Tim Cato of the Athletic. Mosley is a respected coach around the league, and had a particularly close relationship with star Luka Doncic. Mosley had expected to receive serious consideration for the head coach position, but felt that failed to materialize as the team zeroed in on its preferred candidate, Jason Kidd. He will likely be an in-demand assistant coach, even if a head coaching position isn’t offered to him this summer.
In the same article, Cato examines the Mavericks’ front office power structure. The most striking thing, Cato writes, is that despite the overhaul, the structure feels exactly the same. The organization is surrounding new head of basketball operations Nico Harrison with former Mavericks players familiar with the team’s dealings, such as special advisor Dirk Nowitzki, vice president of basketball operations Michael Finley, and head coach Kidd, who is expected to bring on J.J. Barea and possibly Jason Terry as assistant coaches. Team owner Mark Cuban is expected to continue acting as the ultimate decision-maker.
We have more from around the Southwest Division:
- Kidd’s contract with the Mavericks will be for four years, tweets Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports. The exact amount of the contract is still unclear, but this deal will run until Doncic is 26 years old, a critical period in the All NBA guard’s career.
- Jacque Vaughn is gaining traction to become the head coach of the Pelicans, as Brian Windhorst reported this week. William Guillory of The Athletic examines how Vaughn – a current Brooklyn assistant and former Orlando head coach – could fit in New Orleans, as well as potential question marks for the coach, including the Magic’s lack of success with him at the helm, as well as the question of if he would continue to utilize star Zion Williamson as a point forward or rely more on the traditional guards.
- Next season will mark the third coach in three years for the Pelicans, and Scott Kushner of the New Orleans Times-Picayune writes that it could be president of basketball operations David Griffin‘s last chance to get it right for a while. It will be crucial for Griffin to examine where and why Alvin Gentry and Stan Van Gundy couldn’t succeed in New Orleans, or else the team will be forced into another reset that it cannot afford. “The real issue moving forward is finding somebody who you’re in lockstep with,” Griffin said. “And that includes ownership as well. That has to be something we’re moving with together and moving with the same spirit and same energy. I don’t know how else to put it.”
Rockets Notes: No. 2 Pick, Mann, Front Office, Offseason
What the Rockets do with the second overall pick in the draft will go a large way in dictating the team’s subsequent moves, writes Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. The pick is the highest Houston has had since it drafted Yao Ming first overall in 2002, and Feigen writes that the team has a responsibility to put whatever player it selects in a position to succeed.
If the Rockets take Jalen Suggs or Jalen Green, that could mean finding a way to move Eric Gordon and/or John Wall to open up more playing time next to revelation Kevin Porter Jr. If they take Evan Mobley, it could mean not re-signing Kelly Olynyk. But moving on from those incumbent players isn’t mandatory. Feigen suggests that playing alongside veterans like Gordon, Olynyk and Wall could help the rookies ease into the NBA a learn under players who have been in big moments before.
We have more from the Rockets:
- Florida guard Tre Mann‘s first NBA workout was with the Rockets, tweets Kelly Iko of The Athletic. The Rockets have two picks at 23 and 24 that could be in Mann’s draft range. The sweet-shooting point guard said he thought he’d fit well on the team.
- The Rockets have moved quickly to remake their front office following the departure of Daryl Morey, Jonathan Feigen writes, and now the pressure will be on to produce results. Part of what makes this brain trust unique, according to Feigen, is the lack of titles or an established hierarchy among the staff outside of the GM and assistant GM positions, especially among the scouts. For GM Rafael Stone, that’s an intentional decision. “It’s more about adding a different perspective or different thought process,” Stone said. “If you are trying to solve a complicated puzzle, which we absolutely are, you put together people from disparate backgrounds who’ve been successful in disparate paths because hopefully you’ll find a lot of intelligent people and maybe they can solve different puzzles in different ways.”
- ESPN’s Bobby Marks breaks down the offseason outlook for the Rockets. This includes Stone opening the doorway to the possibility of trading out of the number two spot. “It’s not necessarily that you’re looking to do that,” says Stone, “but you shouldn’t foreclose any option.” Marks also identifies the paths Stone has taken to rebuild the roster following the trades of Russell Westbrook and James Harden, including – most notably – their sign-and-trade deal for Christian Wood and acquisition of Porter.
Mavs Notes: Finley, Front Office Search, Carlisle
Former Mavericks champion Michael Finley has emerged as a strong candidate to be named the team’s new head of basketball operations, writes Marc Stein of the New York Times. Brad Townsend of The Dallas Morning News also believes Finley is likely to become Dallas’ new president of basketball ops.
Finley spent eight seasons in Dallas as a player and was a two-time All Star for the Mavs. He’s currently the team’s VP of basketball operations, and Stein and Townsend both suggest that team owner Mark Cuban is more likely to stay in-house to replace longtime executive Donnie Nelson than to bring in someone new with the draft and free agency around the corner.
Stein also reports that the Mavs aren’t pursuing veteran executives such as Danny Ainge and Masai Ujiri for their front office opening. There’s an expectation that – even if Finley is promoted – the team would make at least one outside addition to its front office, but execs like Ainge and Ujiri would likely expect more autonomy than Cuban is willing to cede, Stein writes.
We have more on the Mavs:
- Tim Cato of the Athletic provides a post-mortem on the Rick Carlisle era with the Mavericks, highlighting the coach’s adaptability as a tactician and thinker of the game, as well as his abrasive personality, including his rocky relationship with star Luka Doncic. Both star and coach seemed at times to bristle at each other, as Carlisle felt Doncic publicly showed him up and Carlisle was known for lashing out at players verbally, including several Doncic was close with. The piece also discusses more about his contentious give-and-take towards the end with Mavericks executive Haralabos Voulgaris. Cato concludes that the era was a successful one, culminating in a championship with longtime Mav Dirk Nowitzki, but in the end, it was time for both sides to move on.
- The Mavericks will not seek any compensation from the team that hires Carlisle, tweets ESPN’s Tim MacMahon. Carlisle still had two years on his deal when he stepped down, but MacMahon writes that owner Cuban has no interest in complicating Carlisle’s job search and drawing out what has already been an ugly process. Carlisle and Cuban have a long-standing relationship and Cuban has expressed nothing but gratitude to Carlisle for his time as Mavericks head coach.
- In case you missed it, a report earlier this week indicated that the Mavericks kicked the tires on Kelly Oubre at the trade deadline and could have interest in the forward again in free agency.
Northwest Notes: Nuggets, Jazz, D’Antoni, Wolves, Bolmaro, Walker
The Nuggets‘ season was over long before they expected it to be, especially given the stellar play of star center Nikola Jokic, which was rewarded with an MVP award. But a devastating knee injury to point guard Jamal Murray, the team’s leading scorer in last year’s playoffs, in addition to some disappointing play from key contributors, left the team reeling after a four-game sweep at the hands of the Suns.
Now, there are questions that must be answered, writes Mike Singer of The Denver Post. One area of focus will be shoring up the Nuggets’ frontcourt, as Paul Millsap, JaMychal Green and JaVale McGee are all free agents. Singer also touches on how despite a disappointing end to his second year, Michael Porter Jr. is still very much a player worth keeping faith in, as he enters the first healthy offseason of his career.
Singer, along with Mark Kiszla and Matt Schubert of The Denver Post also answered a few of the most pressing questions facing the Nuggets, such as Aaron Gordon‘s future after his struggles stepping into a scoring role in the second round, potential areas of improvement for head coach Mike Malone, and Austin Rivers‘ impending free agency.
We have more from around the Northwest Division:
- Like Denver, the Jazz‘s season also ended in ignominious fashion after they surrendered a 2-0 lead to the Clippers to lose in six games, culminating in a blown 25-point lead in Game Six. Tony Jones of The Athletic takes a look at where the Jazz can go from here. One area of focus will be finding another forward along with Royce O’Neale who can take the tough defensive matchups on the wing. There’s also the question of Mike Conley‘s free agency to consider, and the related question of whether the Jazz want to try to turn Donovan Mitchell into their full-time point guard. The roster isn’t far away, Jones says, but it still needs some work if Utah is to have any hope of taking the next step towards being a bona-fide contender.
- Mike D’Antoni is getting a second interview with the Trail Blazers sometime this week, tweets ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. Becky Hammon has already met with Blazers ownership for her second interview, and Chauncey Billups is set to do the same later in the week. Those three appear to be the finalists for the head coach job in Portland, though it’s possible other top candidates haven’t been reported yet.
- The Timberwolves could be an interesting landing spot for Ben Simmons if the Sixers decide to trade him, writes Michael Rand of The Star Tribune. With an elite-shooting big man in Karl-Anthony Towns and another high-level shot creator in last year’s number one pick Anthony Edwards, Simmons could focus on defense and passing, the way he has always wanted to. The question comes down to cost. The Wolves have D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley, either of whom could hold some interest to the Sixers, but Sixers GM Daryl Morey may want to hold out for more.
- The Timberwolves aren’t crying over lost picks, writes Chris Hine of the Star Tribune. “We prepared accordingly,” GM Gersson Rosas said pre-draft lottery, about the possibility of losing their first-round draft pick. “We drafted a player last year that has the opportunity to come this season in case there wasn’t a pick.” That’s a reference to Leandro Bolmaro, a very interesting point guard prospect recently named “Most Spectacular Player” of the Spanish league. Rosas also emphasized the added financial flexibility from not having to pay a high-end rookie-scale contract. “That’ll allow us to be more aggressive in terms of trades and free agency based on our financial position,” Rosas said.
- Thunder general manager Sam Presti hasn’t had a chance to meet with new addition Kemba Walker yet, as Walker has been out of the country, tweets Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman. Presti did say that he liked Walker’s fit with star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has grown used to playing with multiple lead guards — he spent much of the 2019/20 season playing alongside Chris Paul and Dennis Schröder.
Community Shootaround: Clippers-Suns Game 2
The Clippers have faced adversity in each of the first two rounds during this year’s playoffs, and the Western Conference Finals seem to be shaping up no differently.
The Clippers rallied from down 0-2 to Luka Doncic and the Mavericks to win Game Seven, thanks to a well-rounded team effort in round one. In round two, they once again started out down 0-2 to the one-seed Jazz, only to win the next four games in a row, weathering the loss of star Kawhi Leonard to take the final two games in convincing fashion. In doing so, the Clippers became the only team to overcome a 2-0 deficit in multiple series during a single playoff run.
Much of the team’s recent success has been due to Paul George‘s stellar two-way play. The All Star wing has averaged 31.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 5.3 APG, and shot 43.6% from three over his last six games, while providing lock-down, versatile defense. George previously spoke of the feeling of getting “the monkey off the Clippers’ back” in regard to making it past the second round, and it seems that he’s feeling some of that same looseness personally.
Now, once again, the Clippers find themselves down heading into Game Two. Despite another strong game from George, in which he scored 34 points and defended Suns‘ star Devin Booker well all night, it wasn’t enough, as Booker managed to overcome the defense en route to a 40-point triple-double and a six-point victory. Booker became the third-youngest player to record a 40-point triple-double in the playoffs – only Doncic and Oscar Robertson accomplished the feat earlier – and the first Sun to do so since Charles Barkley in 1993.
The Suns are as hot as they’ve ever been. They haven’t lost a game since the third game of the playoffs, and Booker proved his ability to put the team on his back and be a play-maker in the absence of Chris Paul, at least for one game. The question will be if he can sustain that level of play should Paul’s absence continue.
Even if Booker drops off, though, the Suns have generally had a wide range of players they’ve been able to rely on. Third-year center Deandre Ayton has had a breakout playoffs, and has been a consistent source of two-way production. Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, and Torrey Craig have all provided scoring and shooting while forming a tight-knit defensive wing rotation, and Cameron Payne has been solid in his role, stepping up to score 11 points and dish out nine assists as he filled in for Paul.
On the other hand, the Clippers’ role players have been a little more sporadic in their contributions. Reggie Jackson has been a consistent source of offense, and Terance Mann has had moments of excellence, but if the Clippers want any hope at making it to the Finals, they’re going to need more from guys like Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, and Patrick Beverley, among others.
This is especially true because, while both players are still on unspecified timetables, it seems likely that Paul could be cleared for a return before Leonard.
All of that makes Game Two a crucial one for the Clippers, who want to avoid a third straight series down 2-0. If the Clippers can split the two road games, and get one while Paul is still out, it bodes well for their chances in the series. If not, they will still have a shot, but it certainly makes things tougher — especially if CP3 does return for the later games.
So the question of the day is: Who will win Game Two between the Clippers and Suns, and who will win the individual duel between George and Booker?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in with your thoughts!
Nets Notes: Marks Presser, Dinwiddie, Harris, Offseason
The Nets‘ first season with their Big Three is over, and they now enter a period of reflection and planning. As BrooklynNets.com’s Chris Dowd details, GM Sean Marks held his end-of-season press conference on Monday, addressing the team’s Game Seven overtime loss to the Bucks and looking towards the future.
“It hurts. It should hurt, but life moves on,” Marks said of the series loss. “Nobody is feeling sorry for the Nets, and we’re not feeling sorry for ourselves. That’s pro sports.”
Marks touched on the fact that all three of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden are extension-eligible this summer for deals that could run through the 2025/26 season and be worth a combined $540.4MM. While Marks declared it too early to discuss such matters, he reiterated the team’s commitment to building a sustainable winner around them.
He also addressed the question of Nets players participating in this summer’s Olympics, saying: “That’s a collective decision where we’ll sit down with the player and also with the performance team and map out, this is what it looks like.”
Finally, he addressed guard Spencer Dinwiddie‘s free agency: “We’ll deal with Spencer when the time comes. And, obviously Spencer has put himself in a position to secure his future long-term. We’d obviously love to play a role in that, whether that’s here or whether we can help them. But you know, we’ll focus on that at a later date.”
We have more from the Nets:
- Dinwiddie has been cleared to participate in all basketball activities, tweets Shams Charania of The Athletic. The 28-year-old guard tore his ACL in December, and – before the Nets were eliminated – had been hoping to return for the Finals. Charania reports that Dinwiddie’s surgeon, Dr. Riley Williams, said that Dinwiddie “looks and feels and moves like the pre-injury Spencer Dinwiddie.” Dinwiddie will be a free agent this summer, and is one of the higher-profile point guards on the market.
- Joe Harris had a nightmare end to the Nets’ series with the Bucks, averaging 7.0 PPG on 24.2% shooting from three in almost 40 minutes a night over the final five games, but the Nets reaffirmed their support for the three-point champion, writes The New York Post’s Brian Lewis. “We have to be careful with what-have-you-done-for-me-lately,” Marks said. “He’s a huge part of this culture and driving it, and we owe a lot of that just to who Joe is as a person both on and off the court, how he’s developed, how he’s sacrificed, the work he’s put in.” However, Marks stopped short of confirming that Harris would be with the team long-term. “In terms of his future on the team, there’s no comment: Joe is a Brooklyn Net until otherwise, whether that’s his decision or mine.” Harris called the experience a motivating factor for him moving forward.
- Marks and head coach Steve Nash are optimistic about the future, but they have plenty of decisions to make, writes Alex Schiffer of The Athletic. One such decision will be how to handle the team’s many free agents — Brooklyn has nine of them, including Dinwiddie, breakout guard Bruce Brown, Blake Griffin, who started at center throughout the playoffs, and Jeff Green, another key contributor. With cap space so tight, the Nets may look at trades for center DeAndre Jordan, who is owed nearly $20MM over the next two seasons and lost his place in the rotation during the playoffs. The team also expects to lose one or more of its assistant coaches, as Mike D’Antoni, Jacque Vaughn and Ime Udoka are all candidates for head coaching positions.
Ishmail Wainright Expected To Make Move To NBA; Raptors Said To Be Interested
Ishmail Wainright is expected to come over to the NBA this offseason, writes Emiliano Carchia of Sportando.
The 26-year-old played for Strasbourg in the French LNB Pro A League this season, and was the team’s third-leading scorer as Strasbourg went 25-10, tied for the third-best record in the league. He averaged 11.8PPG, 4.6 RPG and 2.5 APG in 28 minutes per night.
According to Carchia, the Raptors are the frontrunners to sign Wainright. Blake Murphy of The Athletic confirms (via Twitter) that Toronto has been interested in the 6’5, 250 pound guard/forward for a while, though they are not the only team with interest.
Wainright played for Baylor University for four seasons from 2013-17, averaging 3.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG and two APG. He also represented Uganda in this year’s FIBA Afrobasket qualifiers, leading the team to a 2-1 record with 36 points, 13 rebounds and seven assists in the team’s final game.
If Wainright does sign with the Raptors, he would give them a versatile defender capable of guarding multiple positions who has shown the ability to hit threes in big moments. With their development staff’s track record of helping players become more consistent shooters, the Raptors may be hopeful they can turn his outside shot into more of a weapon.
2021 NBA Offseason Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder
With the offseason trades of Chris Paul and Dennis Schröder last fall, the Thunder officially transitioned from playoff contention to full-scale rebuild.
The team added four first-round picks and multiple second-round picks through deals for Paul, Kelly Oubre (acquired from the Suns in the Paul trade), Danny Green (acquired in the Schröder trade), and other maneuvers, while adding one of the highest-upside rookies in the draft class, the very raw Aleksej Pokusevski, along with solid second round pick Theo Maledon.
An injury limited star point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to just 35 games, while last season’s breakout rookie Luguentz Dort was also in and out of the lineup due to injury. Finally, the team made the decision to bench Al Horford for the second half of the season to allow the young players more minutes and opportunity.
All these factors contributed to the Thunder having their worst year since the 2008/09 season, when they went 23-59 and were rewarded with the third pick, which they used to draft James Harden. The Thunder will hope for similar lottery luck this summer.
The Thunder’s Offseason Plan:
After making a surprise move to trade Horford, former undrafted center Moses Brown, and a 2023 second-round pick for Kemba Walker, the 16th pick in this year’s draft, and a 2025 second round pick, the Thunder are in an unparalleled position to make a trade, either for a disgruntled young star, or to move up in this year’s draft.
They have five picks in the top 36 of this year’s draft, including three top-2o selections, and have 18 total first round picks over the next six years. They also will be able to swap the 18th pick for the Rockets’ pick this year if it drops out of the top four (there’s about a 48% chance this will happen). Their own pick has a 45% chance of landing in the top four. It’s unlikely the Thunder will use all six of their picks in this year’s draft, making them a prime candidate to make more trades.
Walker, the lone veteran on the roster, stands as a clear target to be moved, either in a draft-day trade or as part of a separate deal in free agency. Walker is owed nearly $74MM over the next two years, assuming he picks up his 2022/23 player option, but he can still be a dangerous scorer and play-maker, despite a down year.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Kemba Walker ($36,016,200)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5,495,532)
- Aleksej Pokusevski ($3,113,160)
- Darius Bazley ($2,513,040)
- Ty Jerome ($2,412,840)
- Theo Maledon ($2,000,000)
- Luguentz Dort ($1,782,621)
- Kyle Singler ($999,200) — Waived via stretch provision.
- Patrick Patterson ($737,066) — Waived.
- Admiral Schofield ($300,000) — Waived.
- Total: $55,369,659
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Gabriel Deck ($3,676,852)
- Kenrich Williams ($2,000,000)
- Isaiah Roby ($1,782,621) 1
- Charlie Brown Jr. ($1,701,593)
- Total: $9,161,066
Restricted Free Agents
- Tony Bradley ($5,277,669 qualifying offer / $10,626,180 cap hold): Bird rights
- Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk ($2,079,826 qualifying offer / $2,079,826 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $12,706,006
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 6 overall pick ($5,988,000)
- No. 16 overall pick ($3,2146,80)
- No. 18 overall pick ($2,901,240)
- No. 35 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 36 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 55 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $12,103,920
Extension-Eligible Players
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (rookie scale)
- Isaiah Roby (veteran)
- Kemba Walker (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Mike Muscala ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights
- Deonte Burton ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights 2
- Norris Cole ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 2
- Nick Collison ($1,669,178): Bird rights 2
- Raymond Felton ($1,669,178): Early Bird rights 2
- Total: $8,345,890
Offseason Cap Outlook
The Thunder have the flexibility to go in a number of different directions this offseason, but the most likely outcome – at least to start the offseason – is that they operate as an above-the-cap team in order to retain their many trade player exceptions, as well as the mid-level and bi-annual exceptions.
Williams, Roby and Deck all played well for the Thunder this season and seem likely to have their contracts guaranteed. The cap hold for the Thunder’s first first round pick is likely to be in $5.5MM-$8.3MM range. If the Thunder want to use cap space to throw a lucrative offer at a restricted free agent, they will have to renounce their exceptions.
Much of their cap situation will revolve around whether they’re able to unload Walker’s money to a team that needs a point guard — the Knicks stand out as one team with a need at the position and the cap space to absorb him without needing to send major money back to OKC.
The other big question facing the Thunder is if they can come to terms with Gilgeous-Alexander on a max rookie scale extension. If so, he’ll likely command a five-year, maximum-salary contract that would pay him a projected $167MM+ and would run until the 2026/27 season.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 3
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 3
- Trade exception: $27,528,088
- Trade exception: $12,800,000
- Trade exception: $10,100,000
- Trade exception: $9,590,602
- Trade exception: $1,517,981
- Trade exception: $908,960
- Trade exception: $865,853
- Trade exception: $850,600
- Trade exception: $332,940
Footnotes
- Roby’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 4.
- The cap holds for these players remain on the Thunder’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- These are projected values. If the Thunder use cap room, they’d renounce these exceptions and their TPEs and would only have the room exception ($4.9MM) available.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post. Luke Adams contributed to this post.
Southeast Notes: Van Gundy, Ball, Battier, Heat Offseason, Wizards
Roy Parry of the Orlando Sentinel explains makes a case for why Stan Van Gundy , who was fired after a single year on the job with the Pelicans, should be in the running for the Magic’s head coach job. Orlando is one of seven teams this summer with an open head coach position, and though they’ve expressed a desire to cast a wide net in their search, Parry writes that the Magic, given their defensive personnel, could be primed for a reunion with the defensive-minded coach.
We have more from around the Southeast Division:
- Winning Rookie of the Year has only left Hornets‘ guard LaMelo Ball hungrier coming into next season, writes The Charlotte Observer’s Jonathan Alexander. The young guard missed 21 games with a fractured wrist in the beginning of the season and struggled at times upon returning, but put together a very encouraging rookie year. “Definitely next season I want to come in with this little boost and pretty much looking forward to next season now,” Ball said. “That’s what we’re all working out for. That’s what we’re all here for. Pretty much just trying to get better every day.”
- Former Heat forward Shane Battier has left his job as the head of the team’s player development and analytics department, but plans to continue to consult for president Pat Riley and the Heat, reports Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson. The decision was entirely up to Battier, who had previously been considered a candidate for promotion should Riley retire. That now that possibility seems a little less likely, Jackson writes.
- Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald examines whether it makes more sense for the Heat to operate as an above-the-cap team or a cap room team, concluding that operating over the cap likely makes more sense as it would allow the team to re-sign players like Victor Oladipo and Trevor Ariza with Bird Rights, and to decline the options for Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala and bring them back on new, cheaper deals.
- The Wizards need to be better, and that starts with the front office, writes Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. With the Wizards choosing to not renew Scott Brooks‘ contract, they are also grappling with the fact that turning around the franchise is going to come down to more than a new coaching hire. “The days of one coach being the solution to every single problem a team has are over,” said GM Tommy Sheppard.
