NBA Maximum Salary Projections For 2021/22
Although a handful of big-money free agent contracts were completed during the offseason, the majority of the most lucrative deals signed by NBA players in 2020 have been contract extensions. And six of those extensions – belonging to Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo, and De’Aaron Fox – have been maximum-salary deals.
[RELATED: 2020/21 NBA Contract Extension Tracker]
Because those extensions won’t go into effect until the 2021/22 season and the NBA won’t finalize the ’21/22 salary cap until next summer, we can only ballpark what next year’s maximum-salary contracts will look like based on the league’s latest cap estimates.
When the NBA confirmed its salary cap data for the 2020/21 season on November 10, the league also updated its cap estimates for future seasons. According to the NBA, the cap will increase by at least 3% per year and no more than 10% per year for the remainder of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.
For now, we’re basing our maximum-salary estimates on a 3% increase from this year’s $109,140,000 salary cap, since the NBA is facing probable revenue losses in 2020/21 and seems unlikely to bump the cap too substantially next season.
Listed below are the early maximum-salary projections for 2021/22, based on a $112,414,200 cap. The first chart shows the maximum salaries for a player re-signing with his own team — a player’s previous club can offer five years instead of four, and 8% annual raises instead of 5% raises. The second chart shows the maximum salaries for a player signing with a new team.
A player’s maximum salary is generally determined by his years of NBA experience, so there’s a wide gap between potential earnings for younger and older players. Unless they qualify for a more lucrative extension by meeting certain performance criteria, players with no more than six years of NBA experience are limited to a starting salary worth up to 25% of the cap. For players with seven to nine years of experience, that number is 30%. For players with 10 or more years of experience, it’s 35%.
Here are the the early max-salary projections for 2021/22:
A player re-signing with his own team (8% annual raises, up to five years):
| Year | 6 years or less | 7-9 years | 10+ years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | $28,103,550 | $33,724,260 | $39,344,970 |
| 2022/23 | $30,351,834 | $36,422,201 | $42,492,568 |
| 2023/24 | $32,600,118 | $39,120,142 | $45,640,166 |
| 2024/25 | $34,848,402 | $41,818,083 | $48,787,764 |
| 2025/26 | $37,096,686 | $44,516,024 | $51,935,362 |
| Total | $163,000,590 | $195,600,710 | $228,200,830 |
The “6 years or less” column here is what the new extensions for Tatum, Mitchell, Adebayo, and Fox will look like if none of them make All-NBA teams in 2021. Each of those four players has Rose Rule language in his contract, however, and could move up to the 30% max column (“7-9 years”) if certain criteria are met.
Tatum and Mitchell just have to make any All-NBA team to bump the total projected value of their extensions from $163MM to $195.6MM, but Fox would have to make All-NBA First Team and Adebayo would have to win an MVP award. Fox and Adebayo can earn “max” salaries above 25% but below 30% if they achieve certain other criteria.
The third column applies not just to players with 10+ years of experience, but also to players who meet the Designated Veteran Extension criteria. Antetokounmpo fits that bill, so his deal is worth a projected $228.2MM.
George will have 10+ years of experience under his belt when his new extension takes effect in 2021/22, so its value is reflected in the third column here as well, albeit without the fifth and final year.
The third column also reflects what Kawhi Leonard could get in free agency if he opts out in 2021, though he won’t have full Bird rights yet, preventing him from signing for more than four years.
If the cap increases by 10%, the five-year values for these maximum-salary contracts would increase to approximately $174.1MM (25%), $208.9MM (30%), and $243.7MM (35%).
A player signing with a new team (5% annual raises, up to four years):
| Year | 6 years or less | 7-9 years | 10+ years |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | $28,103,550 | $33,724,260 | $39,344,970 |
| 2022/23 | $29,508,728 | $35,410,473 | $41,312,219 |
| 2023/24 | $30,913,906 | $37,096,686 | $43,279,468 |
| 2024/25 | $32,319,084 | $38,782,899 | $45,246,717 |
| Total | $120,845,268 | $145,014,318 | $169,183,374 |
If a player changes teams as a free agent, he doesn’t have access to a fifth year or 8% raises. So if a player like John Collins opts to sign an offer sheet with a team besides the Hawks next summer, he’ll be limited to a four-year deal projected to be worth just shy of $121MM.
If Victor Oladipo – or another veteran with between seven and nine years of NBA experience – wants to change teams in 2021, he would be able to sign a four-year contract worth up to a projected $145MM.
Leonard – or another veteran with 10+ years of experience – would be limited to just under $170MM over four years if he changes teams as a free agent in 2021.
If the cap increases by 10%, the four-year values for these maximum-salary contracts would increase to approximately $129.1MM (25%), $154.9MM (30%), and $180.7MM (35%).
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Celtics Picking Up 2021/22 Options On Three Players
The Celtics are exercising their 2021/22 team options on the rookie scale contracts of Romeo Langford, Grant Williams, and Robert Williams, according to former C’s assistant GM Ryan McDonough (Twitter link).
[RELATED: Decisions On 2021/22 Rookie Scale Team Options]
Langford, 21, was the 14th overall pick in the 2019 draft, but has been limited to 32 games so far due to health issues and has struggled in his limited playing time, with 2.5 PPG on .350/.185/.720 shooting in 11.6 minutes per contest. He’s currently sidelined as he recovers from wrist surgery.
Grant Williams, who was selected eight spots after Langford in the 2019 draft, has been a more regular part of Boston’s rotation since entering the league last year, averaging 3.5 PPG and 2.6 RPG in 72 games (15.3 MPG).
Langford’s and Williams’ third-year options will pay them $3.8MM and $2.6MM, respectively, in 2021/22. The Celtics will have to decide next year whether to pick up their fourth-year options for ’22/23.
As for Robert Williams, his fourth-year option for ’21/22 will guarantee him approximately $3.7MM and will put him on track for restricted free agency in ’22 if he doesn’t sign a rookie scale extension next summer.
The 23-year-old has appeared in just 63 games for the Celtics in two-plus seasons so far, but has shown some promise. He had one of the best performances of his career on Sunday vs. Indiana, putting up 12 points on 6-of-7 shooting to go along with four rebounds, four steals, and two blocks in 22 minutes.
Kevin Love To Miss At Least 3-4 Weeks With Calf Injury
Cavaliers power forward Kevin Love has reaggravated a right calf strain that he initially suffered during the preseason, the team announced today in a press release.
According to the Cavs, Love will undergo treatment and rehabilitation for his calf injury, and will be reassessed in about three or four weeks. His status will be updated as appropriate, per the club.
It’s a tough break for a Cavaliers squad that is off to an unexpectedly strong start in 2020/21, having already picked up wins over the Hornets, Pistons, and Sixers. Cleveland is one of just four NBA teams that remains undefeated at 3-0, but will be without its starting power forward for at least the next three or four weeks.
With Love on the shelf, the Cavs figure to lean more heavily on big man Larry Nance Jr., who will presumably take over as the team’s starting four. Reserve power forward Dean Wade should also be a more regular part of the rotation with Love sidelined.
The Cavaliers have a busy schedule in the coming weeks, so even if Love’s recovery progresses quickly, he’ll miss a good chunk of games. A three-week absence would result in 12 missed contests.
Rockets Notes: Harden, Dinwiddie, Tucker, Silas
Spencer Dinwiddie‘s partial ACL tear further reduces the odds of the Nets and Rockets working out a trade involving James Harden this season, in the view of Matt Young of The Houston Chronicle, who notes that Dinwiddie and his $11.5MM salary likely would’ve been a key part of any package Brooklyn could put together.
Dinwiddie’s injury doesn’t mean he can’t be traded, but it significantly diminishes his value, since he can reach free agency in 2021 and may not play another game on his current contract. Still, ESPN’s Zach Lowe suggested during his Monday episode of The Lowe Post that the Dinwiddie injury doesn’t really change the Nets’ and Rockets’ outlook for Harden, since the two teams had made no progress toward a deal anyway.
“Spencer Dinwiddie’s health did not make or break the Nets’ ability to get James Harden,” Lowe said, per RealGM. “It’s unclear to me, frankly, if those teams have had anything resembling a serious conversation about James Harden. Let’s make that clear. I don’t sense that there’s been hardly any traction there at all. And maybe the way the Nets started had them thinking ‘Why are we messing with this?'”
Here’s more on Harden and the Rockets:
- Harden, who has averaged 39.0 PPG and 12.5 APG on .595/.500/.920 shooting in his first two games of the season, has provided the Rockets with a reminder of why it doesn’t make sense to trade him for “50 or 60 cents on the dollar,” writes Kelly Iko of The Athletic.
- The Rockets will remain shorthanded on players until Wednesday and haven’t been able to conduct a full practice in about a week, but P.J. Tucker doesn’t think the team should view that as excuse for a slow start, writes Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle. “It’s our jobs to play basketball. This happens,” Tucker said. “Guys go down with injuries, guys go down for being sick, guys go down for family issues. You miss guys all the time. It just makes it next man up. It’s an opportunity to go out and play.”
- Stephen Silas reportedly wasn’t Harden’s first choice when the Rockets were searching for a new head coach this offseason, and his hiring may have even contributed to the former MVP’s decision to request a trade. However, Harden likes what he has seen from Silas so far, as Mark Medina of USA Today writes. “He did a great job,” Harden said of his new coach after the team’s first game on Saturday. “Very confident, knew what he was drawing up and knew where to put his guys at.”
Amile Jefferson Signs With Turkish Team
Free agent power forward Amile Jefferson has signed with Galatasaray, the Turkish club announced today in a press release. The contract will cover the remainder of the 2020/21 season.
Jefferson, 27, spent part of the 2017/18 season on a two-way contract with the Timberwolves after going undrafted out of Duke. He subsequently signed a two-way deal with the Magic for the ’18/19 season and then was promoted to Orlando’s standard roster at the start of the ’19/20 campaign before being waived in February.
Despite spending parts of three seasons on NBA rosters, Jefferson has seen limited playing time, averaging 1.4 PPG and 1.5 RPG in 30 total games (4.7 MPG). He has thrived at the G League level, however, recording 18.5 PPG, 12.2 RPG, and 2.9 APG in 88 NBAGL contests (34.2 MPG) for the Iowa Wolves and Lakeland Magic.
Jefferson was with the Celtics during the preseason after signing an Exhibit 10 contract, but was waived 10 days ago when the club set its regular season roster. He’ll look to help jump-start a Galatasaray squad that is off to a slow start this season, with a 5-9 record in Turkish League play.
Dion Waiters Has Contemplated Retirement
After winning a title earlier this year as a member of the Lakers, Dion Waiters has yet to find a new home for the 2020/21 season, either in the NBA or in another league. During a recent Instagram Live session (video link), Waiters admitted that he considered the possibility of retiring (hat tip to Complex.com).
“They think I’m playing. I’ve been contemplating it though—about retiring,” Waiters said. “It’s the politics for me. Game-wise, we know what’s up. I just can’t do the politics, man. We ain’t going over that water. I’ll retire before that.”
Waiters is coming off an up-and-down year in which he was suspended multiple times by the Heat for off-court behavior and experienced a medical episode on a team flight after he consumed a “gummy,” an edible form of marijuana. Waiters was sent away from the Heat and then was traded at the 2020 deadline to the Grizzlies, who quickly waived him.
Although he caught on with the Lakers for the end of the season, Waiters didn’t play much for the eventful champions, appearing in seven regular season games and just five playoff contests. As a result of his health problems and off-court issues, the former No. 4 overall pick hasn’t played more than 46 games in a season since 2015/16, when he was a member of the Thunder.
Waiters just turned 29 years old earlier this month, so it would be a surprise if he decided to call it a career already. His comments on Instagram Live suggest that retirement is just one option he has considered — I’d expect him to remain on the lookout for new opportunities.
Wizards Exercise 2021/22 Options On Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura
2:56pm: Fred Katz of The Athletic confirms (via Twitter) that the Wizards are declining their fourth-year options on Robinson and Wagner.
2:52pm: The Wizards have picked up their fourth-year option on Troy Brown and their third-year option on Rui Hachimura, the team announced today in a press release.
The options apply to the 2021/22 season, fully guaranteeing each player’s salary for next year. Brown will make $5.17MM in the final year of his rookie contract, while Hachimura’s third-year option is worth $4.92MM.
The 15th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Brown emerged as a regular rotation player for Washington in 2019/20, averaging 10.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 2.6 APG with a .439/.341/.784 shooting line in 69 games (25.8 MPG).
Hachimura, the ninth overall pick in the 2019 draft, averaged 13.5 PPG and 6.1 RPG in 48 games (30.1 MPG) last season, earning a spot on the All-Rookie Second Team. He’s currently sidelined due to an eye issue.
Teams typically pick up all of their rookie scale options at once, so it’s worth noting that today’s announcement from the Wizards didn’t mention Jerome Robinson ($5.34MM fourth-year option) or Moritz Wagner ($3.89MM fourth-year option). Assuming those options aren’t exercised by Tuesday’s deadline, Robinson and Wagner will be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2021, and Washington won’t be able to offer them starting salaries higher than the values of their declined options.
Atlantic Notes: Durant, Irving, Nets, DSJ, Celtics
Nets forward Kevin Durant won’t be active on Monday night for the second game in the team’s first back-to-back set of the 2020/21 season, as Malika Andrews of ESPN writes. Durant had said over the weekend that he hoped to play in back-to-back games this season, despite coming off an Achilles tear, but he’s being held out tonight due to “injury recovery,” per the NBA’s official injury report.
“I definitely want to be able to play back-to-backs,” Durant said after Sunday’s game, per Andrews. “Get through ’em healthy and play my normal minutes, so we’ll see.”
While Durant may get a chance to play both halves of back-to-back sets later in the season, the Nets are clearly playing it safe with their top players to start the year. Kyrie Irving will also miss Monday’s game vs. Memphis for rest purposes, according to the club (Twitter link via Shams Charania of The Athletic).
Here’s more from around the Atlantic:
- Alex Schiffer of The Athletic takes a look at how Spencer Dinwiddie‘s ACL injury will affect the Nets, noting that the team will have to change up its starting lineup and also may not have as many in-season trade options available without a healthy Dinwiddie to put on the table.
- Knicks guard Dennis Smith Jr., who has appeared in just one of the team’s three games so far, will remain in New York to continue rehabbing his left quad contusion, per the club (Twitter link). The hope is that Smith rejoins the Knicks at some point during their four-game road trip, which begins on Tuesday in Cleveland and runs through next Monday in Atlanta.
- The Celtics‘ bench – an Achilles heel for the team in 2019/20 – remains thin this season, especially with Kemba Walker unavailable, writes Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe. Washburn wonders whether the team would consider opening up a roster spot to create room for a veteran who can score, and suggests that Isaiah Thomas is one free agent who might be a fit.
Sixers’ Daryl Morey Fined By NBA For Tampering Violation
The NBA has fined Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey $50K for a violation of the league’s anti-tampering rules, according to a press release.
As the league explained in its announcement, the fine is a response to a December 20 Twitter post about James Harden that Morey has since deleted.
As captured by Bleacher Report, Morey tweeted last Sunday about the one-year anniversary of Harden breaking the Rockets‘ franchise record for total assists. He shared an “On This Day” memory of a post from December 20, 2019 celebrating the achievement before removing it several minutes later.
Morey told the NBA that the tweet was an inadvertent post from an automated app, sources tell ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link). However, he’ll still be responsible for paying a $50K fine, a strong signal that the league isn’t letting anything slide when it comes to its efforts to crack down on tampering.
The fact that the Sixers are reportedly one of Harden’s preferred trade destinations likely played a part in the NBA’s decision.
Spencer Dinwiddie Suffers Partially Torn ACL
Nets guard Spencer Dinwiddie has sustained a partially torn ACL in his right knee, the team announced in a press release. He’ll undergo surgery to repair the injury next week.
According to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link), Dinwiddie is expected to make a full recovery by the start of the 2021/22 season. The team said in its press release that further updates on the 27-year-old’s recovery timeline would be issued after surgery, but it seems likely that he’ll miss the rest of the ’20/21 season.
It’s a brutal blow for the Nets and for Dinwiddie, who suffered the injury during Sunday’s loss to Charlotte when he planted his right leg awkwardly during a drive. It was originally diagnosed as a knee strain, but the Nets cautioned that further testing would be conducted today. Those tests apparently showed the partial tear in his ACL.
Dinwiddie enjoyed a career-best season with the Nets last year, averaging 20.6 points and 6.8 assists per game. He could enter unrestricted free agency by declining a player option worth $12.3MM for ’20/21.
Dinwiddie emerged as a starter this season and was expected to be a third ball-handler alongside the likes of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. The team remains one of the deepest in the East, with Caris LeVert, Jeff Green and Taurean Prince as candidates to take Dinwiddie’s place in the starting lineup.
Assuming the Nets expect Dinwiddie to be out for the season, they can apply for a disabled player exception worth roughly $5.72MM. As we noted over the weekend, the final day to apply for this exception falls on March 3 this season, and teams have until mid-April to use their DPEs.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. JD Shaw contributed to this story.