Notes On What 22-Team Plan Means For NBA
As we outlined this morning, NBA commissioner Adam Silver is expected to recommend a 22-team return-to-play format when he meets with the league’s Board of Governors on Thursday, and there’s an expectation that the plan will be approved.
Our earlier story has a number of details on exactly which teams will be involved and how the plan will work, so be sure to check it out for more info. With those details in mind, we want to take a look at what the plan means for the teams involved and those left out, as well as some of the questions that still remain. Let’s dive in…
Playoff seeding remains in flux:
For the last several weeks, we’ve speculated about potential playoff matchups based on teams’ current records. However, with each club expected to play eight more regular season games, the seeding in both the Eastern and Western Conference will likely change before we reach the postseason.
In the East, for instance, the Pacers and Sixers are currently tied for the No. 5 spot. The Nets are only a half-game ahead of the Magic for the No. 7 seed, which is especially important, since the No. 8 seed could be up for grabs in a play-in tournament, whereas the No. 7 team will be safe.
In the West, things are even more bunched together — the second-place Clippers and seventh-place Mavericks are only separated by 5.5 games, with the Nuggets, Jazz, Thunder, and Rockets all in between. A slump in those final eight regular season games could result in a team like Denver dropping two or three spots in the standings.
There’s no guarantee any play-in tournaments will actually happen:
According to Shams Charania of The Athletic, any play-in tournament would only involve two teams in each conference — the Nos. 8 and 9 seeds. And it would only occur if the No. 9 seed is within four games of the No. 8 seed. In that case, the two teams would play one another, with the No. 9 team requiring two wins to advance, with the No. 8 team only needing to win once. In other words, the two teams would play a best-of-three series with the No. 8 seed holding a 1-0 advantage to start.
What does this mean for the six current lottery teams that will be involved in the NBA’s restart? Let’s start in the East, where the Wizards are the only non-playoff team being invited. Currently, Washington is 5.5 games back of the Magic and six games back of the Nets. That means that in order to force a qualifying tournament, the Wizards will need to gain two games on at least one of those two teams within an eight-game stretch.
While that’s possible, it won’t be easy. In a 22-team field, none of the Wizards’ eight regular season games will be against tanking teams — or against teams with a worse record than their 24-40 mark. They’ll likely be an underdog in every game they play, and forcing a play-in tournament may be a long shot.
In the West, it seems more plausible. The Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, and Spurs are all currently within four games of the Grizzlies. Barring a major hot streak from Memphis, it seems likely that at least one of those teams will keep pace with the Grizzlies and force a play-in tournament, but it will be fascinating to see which one can do it (the Suns, at six game back, are a long shot).
Additionally, as ESPN’s Zach Lowe observes (via Twitter), it will be interesting to see how the NBA would handle what is essentially a tie between teams that have played an uneven number of games. For instance, if the Grizzlies finish a half-game ahead of the Pelicans for the No. 8 seed, will New Orleans still need to win two games before Memphis wins one to claim that final playoff spot? I’d assume the answer is yes, but that’d be a tough break for the No. 9 team.
What’s next for the bottom eight teams?
The Hornets, Bulls, Knicks, Pistons, Hawks, Cavaliers, Timberwolves, and Warriors won’t be part of the NBA’s restart. For each franchise, there are some subplots to watch as a result of their season ending early — for example, we’ve likely seen Atlanta forward Vince Carter play his last game, somewhat unceremoniously.
More broadly, it will be interesting to see what steps the NBA takes with its teams that will now likely remain off the court for nine months or more. We heard earlier this week that some of those clubs have expressed interest in holding mandatory summer training camps or even participating in regional fall leagues to help bridge the gap between seasons. Any plan along those lines would require NBPA approval, however.
There are major financial questions to answer regarding these eight teams as well. Many of the 22 teams that resume play will get a chance to fulfill their regional TV contracts by surpassing the 70-game threshold. Additionally, players on those 22 teams should earn a greater portion of their 2019/20 salaries as a result of playing eight more regular season games and potentially participating in the postseason. How will the NBA make things fair financially to the teams and players that aren’t getting the chance to play any more games?
How will the 2020 draft lottery be impacted?
There has been no confirmation yet, but it seems reasonable to assume that the eight teams whose seasons are coming to an end now will be the top eight teams in the draft lottery. Still, even among those clubs, there’s some uncertainty about how the lottery odds will be calculated.
As Rod Beard of The Detroit News notes (via Twitter), a team like the Hawks (20-47) has played 67 games, while the Timberwolves (19-45) have played just 64. Technically, Atlanta is a half-game back of Minnesota in the overall standings as a result of those two extra losses, but the Hawks have a better winning percentage. Does that mean the Wolves will receive the better lottery odds?
Beyond those bottom-eight teams, it remains to be seen how the rest of the lottery will be handled. If a team like the Wizards – currently ninth in the lottery standings – improbably earns the eighth seed in the East via a play-in tournament, will they be excluded from the lottery? Will the lottery odds for the Nos. 9-14 teams in the lottery be based on current records, or will they be based on the standings after eight more regular season games? Should those teams be included in the lottery at all, considering they’ve now been given a chance to earn a postseason spot?
The draft lottery, which is now expected to happen in August, may not be the NBA’s top concern at the moment, but it will certainly be a priority for many of the league’s franchises, especially those whose seasons are about to be over.
NBA Expected To Approve 22-Team Return-To-Play Format
11:25am: The NBA’s Board of Governors is expected to approve Silver’s plan on Thursday, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
10:00am: When he meets with the NBA’s Board of Governors on Thursday, commissioner Adam Silver intends to propose a return-to-play plan that will see 22 teams resume their seasons, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic.
The NBA reportedly discussed proposals involving 16, 20, 22, or 30 teams last week, with that 22-team format gaining increased support. Although the ownership groups from teams like the Hawks and Bulls expressed a desire to participate, per Charania, the plan will exclude them and the rest of the NBA’s bottom-eight teams in order to limit – to some extent – the number of people the league will have to bring into its “bubble” in Orlando.
As Charania details, the 22-team format would bring back the 16 current playoff teams, along with six additional clubs who are within six games of a postseason spot (the Trail Blazers, Pelicans, Kings, Spurs, Suns, and Wizards).
The plan would see those 22 clubs play eight regular season games apiece, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski (Twitter link), before a play-in tournament is held for the eighth seed. The play-in format would be as follows, per Charania:
- If the No. 9 seed is more than four games behind the No. 8 seed, the No. 8 seed would automatically earn the playoff spot.
- If the No. 9 seed is within four games of the No. 8 seed, those two teams would enter a play-in tournament for the final playoff spot in the conference. Such a tournament would be double-elimination for the No. 8 seed and single-elimination for the No. 9 seed (ie. a best-of-three series, with the No. 8 seed given a 1-0 lead to start).
Currently, the Grizzlies hold a 3.5-game lead on Portland, New Orleans, and Sacramento in the West, with San Antonio four games back, and Phoenix six games back. In the East, the Magic have a 5.5-game lead on the Wizards, so Washington would need to make up some ground to force a play-in tournament.
Besides giving those six current lottery teams a chance to make the postseason, the format will allow all 22 clubs to surpass 70 regular season games, ensuring that many of them meet the requirements for regional TV contracts, which will help out the league financially.
According to Charania, July 31 remains the target date for the resumption of the 2019/20 season, with the draft lottery and combine – which had been postponed indefinitely – now expected to take place in August. Presumably, those events would take different forms than they normally do, as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. It’s not clear yet how the 2020 lottery odds may be affected by the play-in tournament format.
[RELATED: Proposed NBA Plan Would Complete Finals By October 12]
The NBA’s proposal for the resumption of the season is also expected to include many medical and safety protocols, Charania notes. Sources tell The Athletic that those protocols will likely include players showering at their hotels rather than in the arena, inactive players sitting in the stands instead of on the bench, and players not being permitted to bring guests into the “bubble” until the postseason begins.
Any proposal from the NBA will require approval from at least three-quarters of the league’s Board of Governors (ie. 23 of 30 team owners). However, even if the plan isn’t every club’s first choice, there’s an expectation that team owners will get behind Silver and vote in favor of his proposal.
The Board of Governors’ Thursday call is scheduled for 12:30pm eastern time, tweets Wojnarowski.
NBA’s Top Teams Explore Possible Alternatives To Home-Court Advantage
If and when the NBA resumes, it’s expected to happen at Walt Disney World in Orlando, at neutral sites without fans in attendance. As such, the idea of a playoff series featuring a traditional home and road team will essentially be out the window — besides the home team not benefiting from having its fans in the arena, that team also won’t experience the comfort of being in its home locker room and shooting on familiar rims.
Although the teams at or near the top of each conference will no longer have a traditional home-court advantage in postseason series, those clubs are exploring possible alternatives to getting that extra game on their respective home courts, writes Dave McMenamin of ESPN. According to McMenamin, some of the ideas those teams have discussed are as follows:
- The higher seed being awarded the first possession in the second, third, and fourth quarters.
- The higher seed receiving an extra coach’s challenge.
- The higher seed being able to designate one player who fouls out after seven fouls instead of six.
- The higher seed having the opportunity to transport its actual hardwood home court to Orlando.
According to McMenamin, one of the more off-the-wall ideas discussed would even see the 16 playoff teams conduct a “draft” of Walt Disney World hotels, so the top teams get first choice at where they’ll be staying. Allowing the higher seeds to pick their opponents has also been broached, but is considered unlikely.
As McMenamin details, there are concerns within the NBA that any tweaks could come off as gimmicky or too radical. Additionally, if any plan requires two-thirds approval from the league’s Board of Governors, it may not even get the votes necessary for approval anyway. McMenamin describes those top teams’ efforts to create a home-court advantage as something of a “Hail Mary.”
“I do think the NBA cares about it,” one Eastern Conference executive told ESPN. “(But) I do not think it’s a top priority for them.”
Atlantic Notes: Celtics, Knicks, Dolan, Nets
Armed with the third-best record in the East and the fifth-best mark in the NBA, the Celtics and president of basketball operations Danny Ainge don’t have a strong preference about what format the league should take if and when it resumes its season, as Steve Bulpett of The Boston Herald writes.
“It doesn’t really matter,” Ainge said. “There’s so many different opinions on what should be done. I think (commissioner) Adam (Silver) has a tough job keeping everybody happy — well, that’s an impossible job. But I think that I trust Adam will do the right thing, and whatever he decides, we’ll follow along.
“There’s not one thing that I’m adamantly dying for from the different plans,” Ainge continued. “I mean, there’s some I like a little bit more, but, listen, we all have to play under the same rules.”
Based on teams’ current records, the Celtics would face Philadelphia in the first round of the postseason, whether the NBA sticks to its usual East/West format or reseeds teams one through 16, regardless of conference. As the third-best team in the East, the C’s won’t be affected by any form of play-in tournament unless the league opts for a group stage format similar to soccer’s World Cup.
Here’s more from around the Atlantic:
- A number of Knicks players and employees were “furious” that the team didn’t make a public statement about the death of George Floyd, according to Pablo S. Torre of ESPN (Twitter link), who passed along an internal memo sent to MSG employees by owner James Dolan explaining the team’s silence. Several Knicks players marched in protests or expressed their opinions on social media, tweets Adam Zagoria of Forbes. Meanwhile, Torre tweets that “dozens of disgruntled” MSG employees met today without Dolan to discuss his memo, prompting the Knicks’ owner to issue another message to his employees. Ian Begley of SNY.tv has the details on that.
- Nets owner Joseph Tsai is continuing to pay hourly arena workers at Barclays Center, as Net Income of NetsDaily details. While Brooklyn’s season would almost certainly have been over by now, the arena also hosts the WNBA’s New York Liberty and dozens of other concerts and events that have been canceled due to COVID-19.
- Jared Weiss and John Hollinger of The Athletic discuss how the Celtics should go about building around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown over the long term.
Proposed NBA Plan Would Complete Finals By October 12
Last week, we heard that the NBA was tentatively circling July 31 on its calendar as a target date for the resumption of the 2019/20 season. Today, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski provides another important detail on the NBA’s proposed timeline, tweeting that the league is eyeing October 12 as the last possible date for Game 7 of the 2020 Finals.
Wojnarowski notes in a follow-up tweet that the league is still working through details on its return-to-play plan with the NBPA. As such, it’s not clear whether that October 12 date is part of the tentative proposal for now, or if it’s just the latest possible Game 7 date that has been discussed, out of a handful of possibilities.
The NBA intends to bring a proposal to its Board of Governors on Thursday for a vote, so the details of the plan will likely need to be finalized soon.
During the first month or two following the suspension of the season, reports suggested that the NBA preferred not to have the 2019/20 season run beyond Labor Day. The new timeline reflects the league’s changing stance on that issue.
The NBA has seemingly become more willing to start the 2020/21 season much later than usual in the hopes that by the time opening night arrives, fans will be allowed back in arenas. Given how much revenue is generated from ticket sales and in-arena purchases, the league likely won’t be in any rush to begin next season until states have lifted bans on large gatherings, at least to some extent.
If the season runs into early October, 2020’s draft and free agency period likely wouldn’t take place until mid-to-late October at the earliest. It also seems unlikely that the ’20/21 campaign will tip off before Christmas.
Pierce: Exclusion From NBA’s Return Would Hurt Hawks
If the NBA moves forward with a plan to have its top 22 teams resume the 2019/20 season, the Hawks would be one of the eight clubs left out. Amidst reports that the proposal has growing support, Atlanta head coach Lloyd Pierce told ESPN’s Rachel Nichols today that he’s still hoping his team will get a chance to be part of a return to play this summer.
“I coach the youngest team in the NBA,” Pierce said. “And the biggest thing we can benefit from is playing basketball, and the game has been taken away from all of us at this point. … If the season is going to resume and we’re still not a part of it, it hurts our growth, it hurts our product, it hurts our ability to continue the momentum that we need going into next season.”
A desire to be part of the NBA’s resumed season has apparently been unanimous throughout the Hawks’ organization — general manager Travis Schlenk has said he’s in favor of the franchise finishing the season, and team owner Tony Ressler reportedly expressed a similar sentiment on last Friday’s Board of Governors conference call.
As we noted in that story on Friday’s call, some of the NBA’s lottery-bound teams are concerned about facing a nine-month gap between games. Besides the potential impact such a lengthy layoff would have on fan interest, those clubs also don’t want to be apart from their players for so long.
That’s of particular concern for a young team focused on player development like Atlanta. Schlenk said last month that the Hawks would “play our guys” rather than sitting stars like Trae Young and John Collins, since the team wants those building blocks to get as much time on the court together as possible.
“I play young guys, I have young guys,” Pierce told Nichols. “They need game experience and so we need to play basketball, we want to play basketball.”
Thunder Notes: Bazley, Donovan, P. Johnson
Despite being one of the youngest players on an NBA roster in 2019/20, Darius Bazley played a regular rotation role for the Thunder for most of his rookie season, logging 17.2 minutes per contest in 53 games. Although Bazley showed flashes of upside this season, particularly when he made use of his length and athleticism on defense, scouts who spoke to Erik Horne of The Athletic believe he still has a ways to go before realizing his potential.
“He’s got a lot of growing to do,” one Eastern Conference scout told Horne. “He’s athletic. Still really raw.”
As Horne notes, the Thunder traded down from No. 21 to No. 23 to draft Bazley, passing on the opportunity to select Brandon Clarke, who went to Memphis with that 21st overall pick. While Clarke certainly had the better rookie season of the two players, he’s nearly four full years older than Bazley, so the Thunder are still hoping they made the right call for the long term.
Here’s more out of Oklahoma City:
- With the Thunder seemingly headed for a rebuild and Billy Donovan entering the final year of his contract in 2019/20, there were signs that a coaching change could be around the corner. However, as Joe Mussatto of The Oklahoman writes, Donovan flipped the script based on the great job he did in OKC this season. While Donovan hasn’t received an extension yet, GM Sam Presti said in April that he expects to have that discussion soon.
- Thunder pro evaluation coordinator Paul Johnson interviewed on Monday for the general manager role with the NBA G League’s new Mexico City franchise, a source tells Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated (Twitter link). Johnson previously served as a referee operations analyst for the NBA.
- In case you missed it, Thunder owner Clay Bennett was among those on last Friday’s Board of Governors call who spoke out in favor of including as many teams – and particularly small-market franchises – as possible when the NBA resumes play.
Latest On NBA’s Return-To-Play Plans
The NBA and Walt Disney World appear to be leaning torward Disney’s Coronado Springs Resort as the primary host for teams and players if and when the season is resumed, per Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link).
According to Smith (Twitter link), other resorts at Disney are still being considered, and it’s possible that the NBA ends up using multiple resorts. However, Coronado Springs – which features over 2,000 hotel rooms – is believed to offer “the best package of rooms, resources, and proximity to the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex.”
Here’s more on the NBA’s potential return to play:
- Brooks Barnes of The New York Times provides a primer on Walt Disney World’s sports complex, examining how the NBA zeroed in on Disney as a potential host, outlining the benefits of playing games there, and exploring how basketball could coincide soccer if the MLS strikes a deal to play there as well.
- In an interesting article for The Athletic, former NBA team executives Seth Partnow and John Hollinger express some of their reservations about the NBA’s return-to-play plan, ranging from concerns about safety to questions about a 22-team format.
- As Ben Golliver of The Washington Post details, the NBA appears ready to move forward this week with a plan to resume the season, after months of assessing the best way to keep players, coaches, and staffers healthy and safe. Now, amidst the nationwide protests over George Floyd’s death, commissioner Adam Silver “must plunge forward in a climate where many of those same people are voicing outrage and anxiety about their safety and place in society,” Golliver writes.
Former Spurs First-Rounder Milutinov Signs With CSKA Moscow
Serbian center Nikola Milutinov has officially signed a three-year contract with EuroLeague powerhouse CSKA Moscow, the Russian team announced today (Twitter link). The agreement between the two sides was first reported back in April.
Milutinov, 25, was selected by the Spurs with the 26th overall pick in the 2015 NBA draft. However, he has yet to sign an NBA contract, spending the last five seasons with Olympiacos in Greece. He was named the Greek League’s Most Improved Player in 2017 and earned All-Star nods in 2018 and 2019. In 24 EuroLeague games this season, Milutinov averaged 10.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG.
International contracts for draft-and-stash prospects often include NBA outs, but that’s not believed to be the case on Milutinov’s new deal with CSKA Moscow, Keith Smith of NBC Sports reported in April. At the very least, the commitment ensures the big man won’t be joining the Spurs for the 2020/21 season. The odds of him eventually coming stateside probably decline a little with each year he remains in Europe.
Milutinov is part of a small group of former first-round picks who haven’t signed NBA contracts but whose rights continue to be held by NBA teams. Magic 2019 first-rounder Chuma Okeke is the only one considered likely to sign with his club this offseason.
Hall-Of-Famer Wes Unseld Passes Away
Former NBA star, head coach, and executive Wes Unseld has passed away, his family announced today, via the Wizards. Unseld was 74 years old.
“It is with profound sadness that we share that our adored husband, father, and grandfather Wes Unseld passed away peacefully this morning surrounded by family following lengthy health battles, most recently with pneumonia,” the family’s statement reads, in part.
Wizards owner Ted Leonsis also issued a statement on Unseld’s passing:
“On behalf of the Wizards organization and the entire MSE Family, I would like to extend our deepest sympathies and condolences to the Unseld family,” Leonsis said. “… We all admired Wes as the pillar of this franchise for so long, but it was his work off the court that will truly leave an impactful legacy and live on through the many people he touched and influenced throughout his life of basketball and beyond.”
Unseld, the second overall pick in the 1968 NBA draft, spent his 13-year career playing for the Bullets, first in Baltimore and later in Washington. He earned MVP honors in his first NBA season in 1969, becoming only the second rookie in league history to do so, along with Wilt Chamberlain. Unseld eventually won a championship and a Finals MVP award in 1978.
An elite rebounder at 6’7″, Unseld averaged 14.0 RPG in 984 career regular season contests to go along with 10.8 PPG. He earned five All-Star nods and was inducted to the Basketball Hall of Fame as a player in 1988.
Unseld held a role in the Bullets’ front office following his retirement in 1981, then served as the team’s head coach from 1987-94 before becoming the general manager of the newly-renamed Wizards in 1996. He was the franchise’s head of basketball operations until 2000, then again from 2001-03 following Michael Jordan‘s departure.
Our condolences go out to Unseld’s friends and family, including his son Wes Unseld Jr., currently an assistant coach for the Nuggets.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.