Fate Of Many Traded 2016 First-Rounders Up In Air
Only 10 days remain in the regular season, and a majority of the 20 possible traded 2016 first-round pick exchanges are still unresolved. Seven are mathematical certainties, but the rest will be decided over the next week and a half, or through next month’s draft lottery. Some exchanges appear more likely than others, but five are still too close to call. Using the reverse standings and lottery odds as a guide, here’s how all 20 scenarios stand:
Toss-ups:
- Rockets to Nuggets (top-14 protected) — This pick comes down to whether or not Houston makes the playoffs. The Rockets are outside the playoffs for now but trail the Jazz and Mavs, who are in a seventh-place tie, by only one game. Only three games separate Houston from the banged-up Grizzlies, who are in fifth place.
- Lakers to Sixers (top-three protected) — A mathematical chance exists that the Lakers fall into a tie for the fourth lottery position, but they’re three and a half games clear of Phoenix for the second slot with six games to play, so they’ll probably enter the lottery at No. 2. A top-three pick would still be far from guaranteed, as the team in second entering the lottery stands about a 44% chance of dropping to fourth or fifth. The Lakers know this well, having benefited last year when the Knicks fell to No. 4 from No. 2 in the lottery, allowing L.A. to move up.
- Knicks to Nuggets (Denver gets the better pick of its own and New York’s) —The Nuggets have but a one-game lead on the Knicks, so this one is anyone’s guess.
- Knicks to Raptors (Toronto gets New York’s pick if it comes after Denver’s pick) — The Raptors will end up with whichever pick the Nuggets don’t take in the pick swap described immediately above, so with precious little separation between New York and Denver, this one is just as hard to call.
- Nuggets to Raptors (Toronto gets Denver’s pick if it comes after New York’s pick) — See the explanation for the last two picks.
Mathematically certain to happen:
- Nets to Celtics (unprotected)
- Cavaliers to Suns (top-10 protected)
- Thunder to Sixers (Philadelphia gets Oklahoma City’s pick if it falls outside the top 15 and comes before Golden State’s pick, which will happen.)
Likely to happen:
- Wizards to Suns (top-nine protected) — The Wizards are stuck in a nether world, four games back of the playoffs with five to play and mathematically eliminated from any hopes of moving up to the ninth spot in the lottery. Washington could still move up in the lottery itself, but less than a 4% chance exists of that happening.
- Mavericks to Celtics (top-nine protected) — The Mavs have only a one-game lead for a playoff spot that would make this pick transfer a certainty, but the highest they can climb in the reverse standings is No. 12, which would bear less than a 3% chance of a top-seven pick.
- Heat to Sixers (Philadelphia gets Miami’s pick if it falls outside the top 10 and comes before either Golden State’s pick or Oklahoma City’s pick) — The Heat would have to miss the playoffs for there to be even a ghost of a chance that this wouldn’t happen, and Miami is five and a half games up on a postseason berth with six to play.
- Trail Blazers to Nuggets (top-14 protected) — Denver gets this pick if Portland makes the playoffs. The Blazers have four games to play and are in sixth place with a two-game lead in the loss column on the ninth-place Rockets.
Unlikely to happen:
- Grizzlies to Nuggets (Denver gets the Memphis pick if it falls anywhere from No. 6 to No. 14) — The Grizzlies are still in fifth place, but they’re only three games up on the ninth-place Rockets with five to play. Normally, that would be a fairly safe lead, but with so many key Grizzlies out with injury, the playoffs aren’t assured in Memphis.
- Kings to Bulls (top-10 protected) — Sacramento is in eighth in the reverse standings, but with five games to play, only two games separate them from 11th place. Still, if the Kings can hang on to at least 10th in the lottery, less than a 10% chance exists that they’d drop to No. 11.
- Kings to Sixers (Philadelphia gets the better of Sacramento’s pick and its own if Sacramento’s pick falls inside the top 10) — Sacramento could enter the lottery as high as No. 6 in the order, but that entails only about a 22% chance of moving into the top three. The Sixers, who’ll be No. 1 in the lottery order, have a 35.7% chance of dropping to fourth.
- Sixers to Kings (Sacramento gets the inferior of its own pick and Philadelphia’s pick if its own pick falls inside the top 10) — See the scenario immediately above.
Mathematically impossible:
- Timberwolves to Celtics (top-12 protected)
- Heat to Warriors — Golden State would get Miami’s pick if it falls outside the top 10 and comes after Golden State’s pick and Oklahoma City’s pick, but that can’t happen.
- Thunder to Warriors — Golden State would get Oklahoma City’s pick if it falls outside the top 15 and comes after Miami’s pick and Golden State’s pick, but that can’t happen.
- Warriors to Sixers — Philadelphia would get Golden State’s pick if it comes before either Miami’s pick or Oklahoma City’s pick, as long as Miami’s pick falls outside the top 10 and Oklahoma City’s pick falls outside the top 15. Golden State’s pick won’t come before either Miami’s or Oklahoma City’s, so this won’t happen.
Check out the movement on these scenarios compared to our last update from early March.
Key 2016 Offseason Dates
The 2015/16 regular season ends in little more than a week, so the playoffs and the offseason are fast approaching. With just a few dates still to come on our list of Key 2015/16 Dates, we’ll look ahead to what’s next. The 2016 offseason figures to be among the most entertaining in years, with Kevin Durant poised to hit the open market for the first time and teams across the league flush with cash thanks to a salary cap expected to rise to between $90MM and $95MM.
Some specific contractual deadlines and other dates pertaining to relatively obscure collective bargaining agreement clauses aren’t represented below, but the idea here is to provide a digest of the days likely to have relevance to most teams and players. So, with that in mind, here’s a glance at the important deadlines and events that will influence player movement for the next several months across the league, right up until the start of training camps next fall:
April 13th — Last day of the regular season; luxury tax penalties calculated based on payroll as of this day.
April 15th — Playoff rosters set (2pm Central)
April 16th — Playoffs begin
April 24th — Deadline for early entrants to declare for draft (10:59pm Central)
May 11th-15th — Draft combine
May 17th — Draft lottery
May 25th — Last day for early entrants to withdraw from draft and retain their NCAA eligibility
June 13th — Deadline for early entrants to withdraw from draft (4pm Central)
June 23rd — Draft
June 24th — Last day for pending restricted free agents to exercise player options
June 29th — Last day for decisions on player, team and early termination options, unless individual contracts specify otherwise (see list of contracts that specify otherwise).
June 30th — Last official day of 2015/16 season; last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency.
July 1st — Official start of 2016/17 season; July moratorium begins.
July 6th — Last day of July moratorium
July 7th — Moratorium over; teams can begin signing players and making trades.
July 15th — Last day for teams to issue required tenders to unsigned first-round picks; those players become free agents July 16th if not tendered.
July 23th — Last day for teams to unilaterally withdraw qualifying offers to restricted free agents
August 31st — Last day teams may waive players and apply the stretch provision to their 2016/17 salaries.
September 5th — Last day for teams to issue required tenders to unsigned first-round picks; those players become free agents September 6th if not tendered.
Late September (specific dates TBA) — Training camps open
Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ and NBA.com were used in the creation of this post.
Hoops Rumors Community Shootaround 4/3/16
Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young aren’t injured, but Nets GM Sean Marks announced today that they will be held out of games for the rest of the season. The Kings began resting their best players earlier this week, and coach George Karl said Friday that DeMarcus Cousins won’t play any more road games this season.
Sacramento has incentive to protect its first-round draft pick, which will go to Chicago if it falls outside the top 10. The Kings are currently seventh in Hoops Rumors’ reverse standings with a 31-46 record, but only one and a half games separate them from 11th-place Orlando. The Knicks, Nuggets and Bucks are also in that mix. That’s likely why Cousins, Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay were held out of last Monday’s game, along with Marco Belinelli, who has an aching right foot.
Brooklyn doesn’t have to worry about its first-rounder, which is already pledged to Boston with no protection. The Nets are more concerned about possible injuries to Lopez and Young, who are their most productive players and best potential trade assets. “I think two people had gotten injured playing in meaningless games finishing up the season,” Lopez said to ESPN.com’s Mike Mazzeo. “So [Marks] just wanted to take sort of a precautionary angle going forward.”
Resting healthy players isn’t a new issue in the NBA. Contending teams have been doing it for years, especially once their playoff fates are sealed. Spurs coach Gregg Popovich has been willing to risk league discipline for giving his stars a night off when he believes a grueling schedule calls for it. In 2012, he was famously fined $250K for leaving Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green in San Antonio for a televised game in Miami.
But resting players to keep them fresh for the playoffs is different than keeping them out to avoid losing a draft pick or to prevent a late-season injury. There are ethical concerns, especially when fans pay high ticket prices to watch stars perform. That leads us to tonight’s question: Should the NBA adopt new rules to prevent the resting of healthy players and should the Nets and Kings be punished for their actions?
Take to the comments section below to share your thoughts and opinions on the topic. We look forward to what you have to say.
2015/16 Salary Cap Update: San Antonio Spurs
The NBA’s salary cap for 2015/16 is set at $70MM, which is good for an 11% increase from last season, and the luxury tax line is fixed at $84.74MM. With the February 18th cutoff date for trades and the de facto deadline of March 1st for buyouts now past, we at Hoops Rumors are in the process of updating the salary cap commitments for each NBA franchise for the 2015/16 campaign. Here’s the cap breakdown for the San Antonio Spurs, whose regular season roster can be viewed here:
- 2015/16 Salary Cap= $70,000,000
- 2015/16 Luxury Tax Line= $84,740,000
- Fully Guaranteed Salary Commitments= $86,844,995*
- Remaining Cap Room= –$16,844,995
- Amount Above Luxury Tax Line= $2,104,995
*Note: This amount includes the $507,711 due Jimmer Fredette and the $947,276 owed Ray McCallum, both of whom were waived by the team.
Cap Exceptions Available:
- None
Cash Available to Send Out In Trades= $3,400,000
Cash Available to Receive Via Trade= $3,400,000
Note: Despite the trade deadline having passed, the NBA season technically doesn’t end until June 30th. Teams are able to again make trades upon the completion of the regular season or when/if they are eliminated from the playoffs, whichever comes later. So these cash limits still apply.
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post
Hoops Rumors Originals 3/27/16-4/2/16
Here’s a look back at the original analysis generated by the Hoops Rumors staff this past week…
- If you missed the week’s live chat, you can view the transcript here.
- Chuck Myron ran down the timeline for all the signings related to the injury woes the Grizzlies endured in March.
- As part of our Top Bloggers series, Chuck spoke with Ethan Rothstein, the managing editor of SB Nation’s The Dream Shake, a Rockets blog.
- Dana Gauruder profiled Providence point guard Kris Dunn.
- Zach Links highlighted some of the better basketball blogs around in his weekly installment of Hoops Links.
- I ran down the updated 2015/16 salary cap numbers for the Sixers, Suns, Trail Blazers and Kings.
- Chuck ran down the players who parlayed 10-day deals into longer contracts this season.
- If you missed any of our daily reader-driven discussions, be sure to check out the Community Shootaround archives.
- Here’s how you can follow Hoops Rumors on social media and RSS feeds.
- You can keep track of where your favorite team stands in relation to the 2016 NBA draft lottery with our reverse standings tracker.
- We reviewed our commenting policy. Play nice everyone.
- Here’s how you can follow specific players on Hoops Rumors.
Hoops Rumors Community Shootaround 4/1/16
Stories of unhappiness continue to emerge from Washington, and coach Randy Wittman seems most likely to pay the price. It has been a disappointing season for the Wizards, who entered tonight 10th in the Eastern Conference, three games out of a playoff spot at 36-39. With seven games remaining, they would need to leapfrog both the Pacers and Bulls just to earn a place in the postseason.
Much more was expected from a team that went 46-36 a year ago and won a playoff series. Injuries have been part of the problem, but the real reasons for the Wizards’ poor showing go much deeper, as J. Michel of CSN Mid-Atlantic details. The team is making too many poor decisions on the court, Michael writes, and there has been constant feuding between veterans and younger players. There are also charges that the backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal can be too stubborn and difficult to approach during games.
Another problem Michael addresses is communication, especially on defense where he says the team does a poor job of switching on screens. Much of the blame for that falls on Wittman, who Michael says is slow to make in-game adjustments and who has seen his authority questioned publicly several times this season.
Wittman had a dispute with Marcin Gortat in November when he criticized the center for finishing a game with just one rebound. Gortat went months without talking to his coach about the incident, and hard feelings persist between them. Michael claims they have had a “checkered” relationship since Gortat first arrived in Washington in 2013.
Wittman guided poor teams in Cleveland and Minnesota before being promoted to head coach of the Wizards midway through the 2011/12 season. His overall record in Washington is 173-197, and Washington’s back-to-back playoff appearances are the only two winning seasons of his career. He has one year remaining on his contract, but next season only carries a partial guarantee.
That brings us to the topic for tonight. Should the Wizards fire Wittman once the season is over, and who should replace him if they do? There are plenty of proven coaches on the market right now. David Blatt, Tom Thibodeau, Kevin McHale and Monty Williams all guided teams into the playoffs last season. If the Wizards believe they have a real shot at Kevin Durant in free agency, maybe former Oklahoma City coach Scott Brooks should get some consideration. Or should the Wizards concentrate on the college ranks and try to duplicate the success that Billy Donovan has brought to the Thunder?
Take to the comments section below to share your thoughts and opinions on the topic. We look forward to what you have to say.
Decisions On Some Player Options Due Early
Two Kings will have to make major decisions earlier than most. The player option in the contract for James Anderson must either be picked up or declined by no later than the seventh day after Sacramento’s last game, and the 10th day after Sacramento’s finale is the decision date for Seth Curry‘s player option. The Kings aren’t headed for the playoffs, so that means the deadlines for Anderson and Curry to make their choices come in late April, two months before most who have player options.
The standard deadline date is June 29th. Contracts are allowed to specify an earlier date, but not a later date. Many contracts take advantage of this provision, though April dates are rare. Bismack Biyombo‘s player option also triggers as early as seven days after Toronto’s last game, but since the Raptors are primed for a deep playoff run, he won’t have to make his call for a while.
The most popular decision date this year is June 22nd, the day before the draft. A least 13 players have to opt in or opt out no later than that day, and Biyombo could join that list if the Raptors make the finals. Note that players don’t have to take action by those dates if they want to opt out. Player options only require players to say whether they’re opting in. The option is automatically declined if the player doesn’t file paperwork.
We went in depth on all the player options here and here, but below is a list of players whose option decisions come due before the standard June 29th:
April 20th
- James Anderson, Kings ($1,139,123)
April 23rd
- Seth Curry, Kings ($1,015,696)
June 1st
- Quincy Acy, Kings ($1,050,961)
June 13th
- Mo Williams, Cavaliers ($2,194,500)
June 15th
- DeMar DeRozan, Raptors ($10,050,000)
June 21st
- Brandon Bass, Lakers ($3,135,000)
- Alonzo Gee, Pelicans ($1,379,400)
June 22nd
- Arron Afflalo, Knicks ($8,000,000)
- Cole Aldrich, Clippers ($1,227,286)
- Darrell Arthur, Nuggets ($2,940,630)
- *Bismack Biyombo, Raptors ($2,940,630)
- Caron Butler, Kings ($1,551,659)
- Manu Ginobili, Spurs ($2,940,630)
- Wesley Johnson, Clippers ($1,227,286)
- Jeremy Lin, Hornets ($2,235,255)
- Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks ($8,692,184)
- Chandler Parsons, Maverics ($16,023,000)
- Austin Rivers, Clippers ($3,344,106)
- David West, Spurs ($1,551,659)
- Deron Williams, Mavericks ($5,621,026)
- Derrick Williams, Knicks ($4,598,000)
June 27th
- Pau Gasol, Bulls ($7,769,520)
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.
Hoops Rumors Community Shootaround 3/31/16
A year after giving Jimmy Butler one of the richest contracts in franchise history, the Bulls are reportedly thinking about putting the All-Star shooting guard on the trading block. Back in July, Butler turned down a host of other suitors and signed a five-year, $92.34MM deal to stay in Chicago.
It was supposed to mark the continuation of a dream backcourt alongside point guard Derrick Rose, but the injury-plagued Bulls have struggled to gain traction in the Eastern Conference and are in danger of missing the playoffs as the regular season enters its final two weeks. Moreover, rumblings have emerged about a power struggle behind the scenes involving Butler and Rose.
When Butler made comments in December suggesting that new coach Fred Hoiberg was too “laid back” to be successful, Nick Friedell of ESPN.com saw it as an effort to step out of Rose’s shadow and claim leadership of the team. Friedell also indicated that Butler was speaking for several players in the Bulls’ locker room, but it wasn’t clear if Rose was among them. Rumors of a rift between the star guards had been simmering since Butler signed his new contract, and a Chicago Sun-Times report in October indicated through an unidentified source that Butler doesn’t respect Rose’s work ethic.
There’s little doubt that changes are coming in Chicago this summer, whether or not the Bulls can squeak into the playoffs. Pau Gasol has already said it’s likely that he will opt out of his contract. Joakim Noah, who has been sidelined since mid-January with a separated shoulder, is also headed toward free agency and may be leaving town.
But the most important decision for GM Gar Forman may be whether to bring an end to the Butler-Rose pairing. Butler still has four years and $72.475MM left on the deal he signed last summer, although the final season is a player option, while Rose is under contract for one more year at $21,323,250.
That brings us to the topic for this evening: If the Bulls decide to break up their backcourt, should they trade away Butler or Rose? Butler is 26 and has become the team’s most reliable scorer, putting up his second straight season with a scoring average above 20 points per game. Rose is 27 and appears to be leaving behind the effects of the ACL injury that cost him the entire 2012/13 season. Tonight’s game is his 63rd of the season, which is the most he has played since 2010/11, although his scoring and assist numbers are well below what they were five years ago.
Take to the comments section below to share your thoughts and opinions on the topic. We look forward to what you have to say.
Hoops Rumors Community Shootaround 3/30/16
Lakers rookie D’Angelo Russell has reportedly upset the bulk of the team’s roster thanks to a prank gone terribly wrong. Teammates are ostracizing Russell, who recorded a private conversation in which Nick Young spoke about being with women other than his fiancee, the Australian rapper Iggy Azalea, according to a report by Baxter Holmes and Marc Stein of ESPN.com. Some within Lakers brass are upset with Russell, too, but they’ve left the matter to the players thus far, Holmes and Stein write. Coach Byron Scott has notoriously harped on Russell’s maturity, work ethic and attitude, and several team sources who spoke with Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News had levied the same criticisms even before the video was exposed.
Young and Russell were friends, with the swingman at times publicly sticking up for the 2015 No. 2 overall pick, but sources who spoke with Medina believe the now-strained friendship is beyond repair. Young went out of his way to avoid crossing Russell’s path at Staples Center before Friday’s game, according to Medina. No Lakers would sit with Russell for a recent breakfast meeting, Holmes and Stein hear. Another time, Lou Williams stood up and walked away when Russell sat next to him in the locker room, according to Holmes and Stein.
The sanctity and privacy of the locker room is one of the most important unwritten rules in all of team sports. Athletes are under the microscope from media and fans almost constantly and the locker room is supposed to act as a buffer and a safe haven where players can be free to relax and be themselves. Russell’s actions, while likely not malicious in intent, definitely crossed a line, and it remains to be seen if the relationship between Russell and his teammates can be repaired.
Russell has had a difficult rookie campaign on the court as well, struggling to make the jump to the NBA as a point guard after one season at Ohio State. He’s appeared in 72 contests, including 40 as a starter, and is averaging 13.1 points, 3.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists on the year. His play of late has shown improvement, but this rift between him and his teammates could set back the progress of the entire franchise. Chemistry and trust are vital to the success of any team, even more so between a point guard and his running mates, and if the rest of the Lakers are freezing him out off the court, it’s fair to wonder how this may impact the team in the long run.
This brings me to the topic for today: Should the Lakers look to trade D’Angelo Russell?
In all fairness to Russell, he is just 20 years old, which leaves him plenty of time to mature and grow as a person. The point guard certainly has a wealth of talent and has shown flashes of greatness on occasion this season, which bodes well for his future as a player, but it remains to be seen if his teammates will get over this act of betrayal. There may be serious personal consequences for Young, whose relationship could end over Russell’s clandestine video being made public. Regardless of what you think of Young’s actions in a moral sense, it wasn’t Russell’s place to reveal them to the world. The Lakers are a rebuilding team and many of their current players likely won’t be returning next season, so the current locker room dynamic may be altered as a result. But the question still remains as to how any new teammates will react to Russell and if it will hurt the franchise’s free agent recruiting efforts.
Now it’s time to turn the discussion over to you. Do you think that Los Angeles should part ways with Russell as a result of his actions? Or do you believe he is too valuable a player to trade? Will this scandal blow over, or do you think the Lakers’ locker room is irreparably broken? Take to the comments section to share your thoughts and opinions on the matter. We look forward to what you have to say.
2015/16 Salary Cap Update: Sacramento Kings
The NBA’s salary cap for 2015/16 is set at $70MM, which is good for an 11% increase from last season, and the luxury tax line is fixed at $84.74MM. With the February 18th cutoff date for trades and the de facto deadline of March 1st for buyouts now past, we at Hoops Rumors are in the process of updating the salary cap commitments for each NBA franchise for the 2015/16 campaign. Here’s the cap breakdown for the Sacramento Kings, whose regular season roster can be viewed here:
- 2015/16 Salary Cap= $70,000,000
- 2015/16 Luxury Tax Line= $84,740,000
- Fully Guaranteed Salary Commitments= $72,671,296*
- Remaining Cap Room= –$2,671,296
- Amount Below Luxury Tax Line= $12,068,704
*Note: This figure includes the $882,630 due Wayne Ellington, who was waived via the stretch provision, plus the $25,000 owed to Marshall Henderson, and the $30,000 due Vince Hunter, both of whom were waived.
Cap Exceptions Available:
- Room= $1,473,212
Cash Available to Send Out In Trades= $3,400,000
Cash Available to Receive Via Trade= $3,400,000
Note: Despite the trade deadline having passed, the NBA season technically doesn’t end until June 30th. Teams are able to again make trades upon the completion of the regular season or when/if they are eliminated from the playoffs, whichever comes later. So these cash limits still apply.
The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.