2016 NBA Draft Order, Lottery Odds

The future for several NBA teams hinges on the May 17th draft lottery, but the work doesn’t end for the teams that luck out that night. It remains imperative to nail the draft on June 23rd, and if the right prospect isn’t available, a trade is always an option.

Picks are commonly swapped from team to team on draft night, so that, plus the lottery, means the order below is unlikely to hold. Still, this shows the draft assets and possibilities that teams have as they seek to improve in the offseason.

Lottery order (Odds of landing top pick in bold)

1. Sixers — (the Sixers have the right to swap picks with the Kings if Kings’ pick is in top 10) — 25%
2. Lakers — (will send pick to Sixers if not in top 3) — 19.9%
3. Celtics (via Nets) — 15.6%
4. Suns — 11.9%
5. Timberwolves — 8.8%
6. Pelicans — 6.3%
7. Knicks (will send pick to Nuggets if Denver exercises right to swap picks; otherwise pick goes to Raptors) — 4.3%
8. Kings (will send pick to Bulls if not in top 10; otherwise, Sixers have the right to swap picks) — 1.9%
9. Nuggets (will send pick to Raptors if Denver exercises right to swap picks with Knicks) — 1.9%
10. Bucks — 1.8%
11. Magic — 0.8%
12. Jazz — 0.7%
13. Wizards (will send pick to Suns if not in top 9) — 0.6%
14. Bulls — 0.5%

Remainder of first round

15. Nuggets (via Rockets)
16. Celtics (via Mavericks)
17. Grizzlies
18. Pistons
19. Nuggets (via Trail Blazers)
20. Pacers
21. Hawks
22. Hornets
23. Celtics
24. Sixers (via Heat)
25. Clippers
26. Sixers (via Thunder)
27. Raptors
28. Suns (via Cavaliers)
29. Spurs
30. Warriors

Second round

31. Celtics (via Sixers)
32. Lakers
33. Clippers (via Nets)
34. Suns
35. Celtics (via Timberwolves)
36. Bucks (via Pelicans)
37. Rockets (via Knicks)
*38. Bucks
*39. Pelicans (via Nuggets)
*40. Pelicans (via Kings)
41. Magic
42. Jazz
43. Rockets
44. Hawks (via Wizards)
45. Celtics (via Grizzlies)
46. Mavericks
47. Magic (via Bulls)
48. Bulls (via Trail Blazers)
49. Pistons
50. Pacers
51. Celtics (via Heat)
52. Jazz (via Celtics)
53. Nuggets (via Hornets)
54. Hawks
55. Nets (via Clippers)
56. Nuggets (via Thunder)
57. Grizzlies (via Raptors)
58. Celtics (via Cavaliers)
59. Kings (via Spurs)
60. Jazz (via Warriors)

* The order of picks 38 through 40 depends on the lottery. The Bucks’ second-round pick and the second-rounders originally belonging to the Nuggets and Kings will go in the reverse order of the picks originally belonging to each team in the first round.

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7 thoughts on “2016 NBA Draft Order, Lottery Odds

  1. kpatcal

    The 76ers have a chance, albeit small, to have the 1st, 2nd, and 4th picks in the draft!!! Hinkie set this team up to have s bright future.

  2. Thronson5

    Depends on if the Lakers get a pick out of the top 3 and I’d be shocked if that happened although anything can happen I guess. This is one thing I hate about the NBA, they should draft just like any other sport. Your spot it chosen by your record. To me the draft process for the NBA is a huge flaw. No reason you should have a horrible record like the Lakers and still have a chance of not picking in the top 3.

    • se7enwils

      You don’t seem to remember the Houston Rockets intentional dumping of the final 1/4 of a season that successfully resulted in the #1 overall pick that turned into Hakeem Olajuwon.

      One of the most embarrassing things a franchise has ever done in my opinion. And it worked. I believe they instituted the lottery specifically because of this incident in order to discourage teams from following suit.

    • Football does it by standings and I’m pretty sure baseball does too. The only one that doesn’t is NHL which just recently implemented a lottery to prevent tanking.

  3. Sixers cannot get 1,2, and 4. Best they can get is 1 and 4 if Lakers fall out of top 3 (about 45% chance of that happening)

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