Timberwolves Rumors

2017 NBA Draft Lottery Odds

With the NBA’s 2016/17 regular season now in the books, the odds for this year’s draft lottery have been set. With the help of our Reverse Standings, as well as information from LotteryBucket.com, here is the 2017 lottery order, along with each team’s chances of landing a top pick:

  1. Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)
    • No. 1: 25.0%
    • Top-3: 64.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 4
    • Note: Celtics acquire pick due to ability to swap first-round picks with Nets.
  2. Phoenix Suns
    • No. 1: 19.9%
    • Top-3: 55.8%
    • Lowest pick: No. 5
  3. Los Angeles Lakers
    • No. 1: 15.6%
    • Top-3: 46.9%
    • Lowest pick: No. 6
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Sixers if not in top 3 (odds: 53.1%).
  4. Philadelphia 76ers
    • No. 1: 14.7%
    • Top-3: 45.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 7
    • Note: Sixers have right to swap picks with Kings, so their No. 1 and top-3 odds are a little higher than they otherwise would be. No. 1 and top-3 odds for Sixers’ own pick are 11.9% and 37.8%, respectively.
  5. Orlando Magic
    • No. 1: 8.8%
    • Top-3: 29.12%
    • Lowest pick: No. 8
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves
    • No. 1: 5.3%
    • Top-3: 18.3%
    • Lowest pick: No. 9
    • Note: Timberwolves won tiebreaker with Knicks.
  7. New York Knicks
    • No. 1: 5.3%
    • Top-3: 18.2%
    • Lowest pick: No. 10
    • Note: Knicks lost tiebreaker with Timberwolves.
  8. Sacramento Kings
    • No. 1: N/A
    • Top-3: 2.5%
    • Lowest pick: No. 11
    • Note: Sixers have right to swap picks with Kings, rendering No. 1 pick impossible and greatly reducing odds of top-3 pick.
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Bulls if not in top 10 (odds: 0.01%).
  9. Dallas Mavericks
    • No. 1: 1.7%
    • Top-3: 6.1%
    • Lowest pick: No. 12
  10. New Orleans Pelicans
    • No. 1: 1.1%
    • Top-3: 4.0%
    • Lowest pick: No. 13
    • Note: Pick will be sent to Kings if not in top 3 (odds: 96.0%).
  11. Charlotte Hornets
    • No. 1: 0.8%
    • Top-3: 2.9%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  12. Detroit Pistons
    • No. 1: 0.7%
    • Top-3: 2.5%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  13. Denver Nuggets
    • No. 1: 0.6%
    • Top-3: 2.2%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14
  14. Miami Heat
    • No. 1: 0.5%
    • Top-3: 1.8%
    • Lowest pick: No. 14

Taylor Wants T-Wolves To Add Vets

The Timberwolves fell short of their goal to win a playoff spot this season and team owner Glen Taylor is already thinking about how his organization can put the roster in position to do so in 2016/17, says Sid Hartman of the Star Tribune. One solution? Add veterans.

[Tom Thibodeau] needs some players that will come off the bench and keep us going and not give up the lead,” the Timberwolves owner said. “I think he would say if he can get some guys with experience that would be helpful, so he can mix them in with our young guys during those substitution times. I think that will be a priority.

The Timberwolves have plenty of money heading into the offseason, especially as the injured Nikola Pekovic‘s salary gets covered by insurance. That budget, coupled with Minnesota’s genuine emergence as a squad capable of contending in the near future (as opposed to a hypothetically spooky one), could bode well for the franchise’s pursuit of establish talent this offseason.

Potential 2017 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria

The NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement, which will go into effect on July 1, 2017, includes a number of changes to the free agent process, including some that apply specifically to restricted free agents. However, one aspect of restricted free agency unaffected by the new CBA is what’s referred to as the “starter criteria,” which can affect how much an RFA’s qualifying offer will be worth.

Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2015/16 and 35 in 2016/17, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons exceeds 41.

A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:

  • A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
  • A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
  • For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.

Extending a qualifying offer to a player ensures that a team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet, and gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO. Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. Still, those QOs can have an impact on a team’s salary cap outlook during July’s free agent period, so it’s worth checking in to see which potential RFAs will be eligible for higher or lower qualifying offers this summer.

Listed below are the top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,187,598.

Len and Noel had the worst QO luck this season. As the fifth and sixth overall picks in 2013, they would have been in line for qualifying offers worth about $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively. Instead, their QOs will be worth less than $4.2MM. Both players were very close to meeting the starter criteria too — they’ve started 77 games apiece in the past two years, so they’ll fall just short of the 82 required.

The players listed below are non-lottery first-round picks who will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,588,840.

All four of these players were selected in the 20-26 range in the 2013 draft, and their QOs would’ve ranged from about $3.39MM to $3.22MM if they hadn’t met the starter criteria.

Here are the rest of the RFAs whose qualifying offers won’t necessarily be determined by the standard criteria:

  • Undrafted power forward JaMychal Green (Grizzlies) has met the starter criteria, putting him in line for a QO worth $2,820,497 instead of the more modest amount he would’ve received as a minimum-salary player.
  • Two players – Joe Ingles (Jazz) and Ben McLemore (Kings) – still have a chance to meet the starter criteria depending on how the season’s last four days play out. Ingles has played 1,848 minutes this season, meaning he would have to average about 38 MPG in Utah’s last four contests to reach 2,000, which is a tall order. McLemore may fall just short as well, as he currently sits at 79 starts over the last two seasons. He’ll need to start three of the Kings’ last four games in order to average 41 starts per year, but he has only been in Sacramento’s starting lineup twice since the start of March. (End-of-season update: Neither Ingles nor McLemore met the starter criteria.)

Rubio's Post Deadline Transformation; Casspi Envisions 50 Wins

The decision to not move point guard Ricky Rubio at the trade deadline has proved to be a smart one, Michael Rand of the Star Tribune writes. Since February the Timberwolves veteran has demonstrated an elite ability to contribute across the board.

In March, the guard historically criticized for his inability to shoot the ball, has shot .472 from the field while averaging 17.8 points and 10.4 assists per game. What’s more, his true shooting percentage for the playoff hopeful Timberwolves is an elite .602.

As early as last summer it appeared as though Rubio would be on his way out the door. When the Timberwolves drafted Kris Dunn last June, it seemed inevitable. Lately, however, Rubio’s confidence has forced other teams to honor his jump shot.

  • Though he’s logged time with both the Kings and Timberwolves this season, Omri Casspi says the clubs are considerably far apart in terms of their respective rebuilds, Kent Youngblood of the Star Tribune writes. “The Timberwolves are well ahead in their rebuilding. They’re putting the right pieces in the right places. I think this team, whether I’m here or not next year, should win 50-plus games. Sacramento, now is starting to rebuild. It will take time,” Casspi said.

Northwest Notes: Nurkic, Nuggets, Favors, Wolves

Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic suffered the fracture in his right leg Tuesday against the Nuggets, tweets Joe Freeman of The Oregonian. He played 32 minutes in Thursday’s game before the injury was discovered on Friday. Nurkic will be out of action for at least two weeks, and Portland is hoping he can be ready for the playoffs. “It just depends how I feel,” Nurkic said. “The doctor said, ‘He’s tough,’ and if it doesn’t hurt I’m going to be back.” (Twitter link). Blazers coach Terry Stotts plans to use a “committee” approach at center while Nurkic is out, with Meyers Leonard getting the start tonight (Twitter link).

There’s more from the Northwest Division:

  • After losing three straight and falling two games behind Portland in the race for the final playoff spot, Nuggets coach Michael Malone wants his team to close out the season “the right way,” relays Christopher Dempsey on NBA.com. “If we do finish the right way, maybe other things happen and we give ourselves a chance,” Malone said. “I want to find guys that when everything looks bleak, who is going to go out there and play anyway. … Going forward, I will find a group of five guys, vets or young guys, whoever it may be, to go out there and play and play as hard as possible.” Denver has to overcome injury problems as it tries to save its season. Will Barton, Darrell Arthur and Jameer Nelson are all questionable for Sunday’s game at Miami and possibly beyond.
  • The Jazz are hoping injured forward Derrick Favors can return before the end of the regular season, according to Jody Genessy of The Deseret News. A bone bruise in his left knee has kept Favors sidelined since March 6th, but coach Quin Snyder said Friday that he is “hopeful” about Favors coming back.
  • Despite having some of the most exciting young players in the league, attendance remains a problem for the Timberwolves, notes Kent Youngblood of The Star Tribune. Even though the crowds have been trending upward, Minnesota is last in the NBA with an average of 14,584 fans per night. The Wolves are getting about 4% larger crowds than they did last season, but it will take success on the court for that number to increase significantly.

Rubio Making Case To Stick With Wolves; Casspi Still Adapting

  • The Timberwolves signed Omri Casspi in the wake of Nemanja Bjelica‘s season-ending injury, hoping that Casspi could do some of the things that Bjelica did on the court. However, as Jerry Zgoda of The Star Tribune details, Casspi is still adapting to his new team. The Wolves have just nine games left, so the veteran forward may return to the free agent market before getting fully comfortable in Minnesota.

Ricky Rubio has been the subject of frequent trade speculation in the past couple years, but if he continues to play like he has lately, Rubio should have a future with the Timberwolves, writes Sid Hartman of The Star Tribune. As Hartman details, Rubio has been averaging a double-double (15.8 PPG, 10.6 APG) and shooting well (39.5% on threes) since the trade deadline, and is on a reasonable contract (two years and $29MM+ after this season). Minnesota drafted Kris Dunn last June to be the point guard of the future, but it appears Rubio isn’t ready to give up his hold on that title quite yet.

Bjelica Undergoes Foot Surgery

Timberwolves big man Nemanja Bjelica underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a fractured navicular bone in his left foot, the team announced in a press release. Bjelica’s season-ending injury occurred during Minnesota’s 117-104 loss to Boston on March 15th. He was averaging 6.2 PPG and 3.8 RPG in 18.3 MPG while appearing in 65 games. The club did not announce how long it would take for Bjelica, who will make a guaranteed $3,949,999 next season, to recover from the injury.

Wolves Sign Omri Casspi

March 20: The Wolves officially announced in a press release on Twitter that they’ve signed Casspi, though the exact terms have not yet been made available.

March 19: The Timberwolves are closing in on a deal with Omri Casspi, according to Marc Stein of ESPN (Twitter link). Casspi had been cleared to resume basketball activities last week, after suffering a right thumb injury.

Stein shed further light on the deal, reporting Wolves coach Tom Thibodeau met face-to-face with Casspi over dinner this weekend in New Orleans (article link). According to Stein, the Clippers, Celtics, and Grizzlies also showed interest in Casspi.

The Wolves have a need for Casspi, having lost Nemanja Bjelica for the season with a left foot injury. Like Bjelica, Casspi is known as a long-distance shooting specialist, shooting 36.9% on 3-pointers over the course of his career. While Casspi is playoff-eligible- having been released prior to the March 1 deadline- the Wolves face long odds to make the postseason. Thibodeau’s squad is 28-40, receiving 3% odds of making the playoffs according to Five Thirty Eight.

Casspi’s deal is expected to be finalized Monday, Stein reports.

Poll: No. 8 Seed In Western Conference

For most of the 2016/17 season, seven Western Conference teams have comfortably held postseason positions. The Warriors and Spurs have led the pack, followed by the Rockets, with the Jazz, Clippers, Thunder, and Grizzlies rounding out the top seven. The order those teams finish in has yet to be determined, but none of them are in danger of losing their playoff spots.

That leaves just one open spot for Western Conference teams vying for playoff contention, and the battle for the No. 8 seed has been an interesting one. With one or two exceptions, virtually every team in the bottom of the Western standings has been viewed as a viable candidate for that final postseason spot at some point since October — even the last-place Lakers created a little buzz when they opened the season with a 10-10 record before falling off significantly.

At this point, two teams look like top contenders for that No. 8 seed, and those two clubs actually completed a trade with one another just last month. The Nuggets and Trail Blazers swapped Mason Plumlee for Jusuf Nurkic in February, and those players have thrived with their new teams, helping to position them for a run at the West’s No. 8 seed. Both teams have been among the NBA’s best so far in March — Denver currently holds a one game lead over Portland with 13 to play, but the Blazers have won three games in a row and have a favorable schedule down the stretch.

Ultimately, it might not matter much which team claims the No. 8 spot — neither the Nuggets nor the Blazers is a serious threat to upset the top-ranked Warriors (or Spurs). Still, either club could at least make things a little interesting in round one as a frisky underdog, given how well they’ve been playing as of late.

What do you think? Will it be the Nuggets or the Blazers in that No. 8 spot at the end of the regular season? Or will another Western team – such as the Mavericks, Pelicans, or Timberwolves – sneak into that final spot with a hot streak in the season’s final weeks?

Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.

Timberwolves Likely To Move On From Stephenson

The Timberwolves are likely to move on from Lance Stephenson as his second 10-day contract expires, says Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. The veteran guard has averaged 6.6 points per game this season across stops with the Wolves and Pelicans.

Originally signed to a 10-day deal with Minnesota on February 8 and then a second one following his recovery from an ankle injury on March 8, Stephenson never did quite establish himself in head coach Tom Thibodeau’s rotation.

Beyond the 16 minutes he played on the day he inked the second 10-day deal, Stephenson has played just two minutes for the Timberwolves since.

Queried about free agent Jimmer Fredette on Twitter, Wolfson added that the club has some interest in the guard (who recently saw a prolific season in China draw to an end) but may also have other options in mind as well.