Community Shootaround: NBA’s 2023/24 Hierarchy
With free agency winding down, we have a clearer idea of what teams are going to look like for the 2023/24 season. Of course, there is still plenty of time between now and the start of training camps in late September, but many teams seem to be nearly regular-season-ready.
A clearer idea of what next season’s rosters will look like means a consensus should start to emerge on where teams stand in the NBA’s pecking order. However, it appears as though most teams in the league are trending toward building for the playoffs. Only a handful of clubs look like they’re planning on prioritizing youth development over a 2024 playoff appearance.
The Wizards sent off former franchise mainstay Bradley Beal this summer in the first of what became a series of deals that look to have Washington resetting its roster. Players like re-signed forward Kyle Kuzma and new additions Jordan Poole and Tyus Jones could keep Washington competitive, but the franchise lacks an All-Star to build around.
Teams like Detroit, San Antonio, Charlotte and Orlando are built around young cores, but there’s a sense that all four franchises will improve on their previous seasons.
Of course, the elephants in the room are the potential Damian Lillard and James Harden deals that would shake up the league’s hierarchy.
If Portland sends out Lillard, it likely means the franchise is planning for an all-out rebuild. However, the Trail Blazers were a competitive team for much of last season and, if they convince Lillard to stay, they could talk themselves into being a playoff contender. On the other hand, if Lillard ended up in Miami, his preferred destination, it would likely place the Heat among the top two or three teams in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are fresh off an NBA Finals appearance but lost veteran starters Gabe Vincent and Max Strus to free agency.
As for a potential Harden trade, the Clippers are the reported frontrunner for Harden is he’s dealt. Adding Harden likely moves the Clippers into the upper echelon of the Western Conference, though they’re a probable playoff team as is. Same goes for the Sixers. With or without Harden, Philadelphia likely sees itself in the playoffs.
The implementation of the Play-In Tournament means teams are more incentivized than ever to be competitive, especially after a play-in team in Miami made the Finals last year. Teams like Utah, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Houston, Dallas, New Orleans, Indiana, Atlanta, Chicago, Toronto and Brooklyn seem like they could go either way. For example, the Rockets committed significant money to win-now pieces like Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks in free agency but still have several young players to develop.
Then there are the teams at the top. The Suns added Beal to a star-studded core but turned over a huge chunk of their roster and may lack continuity. The Nuggets are in good position to win the conference again but lost Bruce Brown in free agency. The Celtics added Kristaps Porzingis but shipped out Marcus Smart. The Bucks re-signed Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez but lost in the first round last year.
Beyond the obvious names, the Knicks and Cavaliers appear to have made on-paper improvements while the Lakers, Grizzlies, Kings and Warriors could pop out in the West.
Despite knowing what rosters will look like for the most part, there seems to be plenty of variability between every team in each conference.
That leads us to our Community Shootaround discussion topic of the day: Which teams in each conference do you consider the best bets to make the postseason? Which surprise teams will make the playoffs? Who do you think will come out of each conference on top?
Let us know what you think by taking to the comments of this post.
Latest On Damian Lillard
The Trail Blazers remain “disinclined” to engage with the Heat about a potential trade package to send Damian Lillard to Miami, according to the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson (Twitter link), who says that Portland is “acting disinterested” in dealing the star guard to the Heat.
Jackson’s update comes on the heels of a TV appearance by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski in which he reported that there has been little traction on a deal involving Lillard with Miami or any other team. According to Wojnarowski, the biggest impediment to a deal is Lillard’s contract — he’s due $45.6MM in 2023/24 and will make an average of $60MM in the final two years of his four-year deal — rather than his desire to end up in Miami.
Meanwhile, The Athletic’s Shams Charania hears that the Heat are preparing an offer for Lillard that would include three or four first round picks going to Portland. According to Charania, the framework of a potential Lillard-to-Miami deal would involve the aforementioned picks, expiring contracts, at least one young player, and Tyler Herro being re-routed to a third team, as well as possibly pick swaps and second-round picks.
The Heat only have one expiring contract with a significant salary, Kyle Lowry‘s $29.7MM deal. Miami’s 2023 first round selection Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic fit the bill for young players who could interest Portland.
Miami is currently ineligible to trade more than two of its own future first-round picks due to the Stepien rule, but there are scenarios in which the club could free up an extra first-rounder or two — a third team that acquires Herro may also be willing to send a first-round pick to Portland.
All of this reporting comes in the wake of a July 28 memo sent out by the league warning Lillard and his agent, Aaron Goodwin, about discouraging non-Heat teams from pursuing the seven-time All-Star.
Portland general manager Joe Cronin is clearly in no rush to send one of the best players in franchise history away, especially if Miami’s package isn’t strong enough. With training camp just under two months away, Cronin could opt to hold Lillard until the last minute or, if nothing comes to fruition, could even hold him into the season. As Jackson notes (Twitter link), it took two other recent prominent trade demands (Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis) around seven months to be moved following their requests.
On the other hand, if Lillard and his camp continue to make things uncomfortable, you’d think Cronin would begin to become more receptive to Miami’s offers. The Heat lost key contributors from their 2023 Finals roster in free agency and haven’t been able to add many other players from this year’s free agent class due to not knowing how many roster spots will be up for grabs if a Lillard trade occurs. In other words, the Heat’s push for Lillard could get more urgent, allowing the Blazers to extract more value. If Cronin wants more picks, the Heat could look to trade pieces like Caleb Martin for assets, for example.
Regardless, it doesn’t appear as though anything on the Lillard trade front is imminent or even close to it, at this point.
Raptors Sign Mouhamadou Gueye To Exhibit 10 Contract
The Raptors have signed forward Mouhamadou Gueye, the team announced in a press release. According to Sportsnet’s Blake Murphy, Gueye’s deal with Toronto is an Exhibit 10 contract (Twitter link).
Gueye, a 6’10” forward who played college ball at Pitt, went undrafted in 2022 before joining the Mavericks on a training camp contract last season. Gueye was waived before the regular season began and played for Dallas’ G League affiliate, the Texas Legends. Gueye averaged 8.6 points and 5.1 rebounds in 29 Showcase Cup and regular season games with the Legends as a rookie.
The Pitt product went on to play for the Raptors in Summer League this offseason. Toronto’s G League affiliate, Raptors 905, traded for Gueye in exchange for a 2024 G League first round pick last week, which is often a precursor to an Exhibit 10 deal for that player.
With Gueye, alongside the finalized additions of Garrett Temple and Kevin Obanor, the Raptors now sit at the offseason maximum of 21 players for their training camp roster. Gueye and Obanor are on Exhibit 10 contracts, Toronto’s three two-way spots are filled, and 16 players are on standard contracts.
Of those 16 standard contracts, at least 14 are fully guaranteed. Jeff Dowtin is on a non-guaranteed contract with a partial guarantee if he makes the opening day roster. Temple’s details aren’t yet known.
Duane Washington Returns To Knicks On Camp Deal
AUGUST 1: Washington’s new deal with the Knicks is a training camp contract, tweets Fred Katz of The Athletic.
JULY 30: The Knicks have signed Duane Washington, the team announced in a press release.
The 23-year-old guard was waived last week after picking up his two-way qualifying offer. New York already has its three two-way slots filled by Jaylen Martin, Nathan Knight and Dylan Windler.
Details of Washington’s contract weren’t released, so it’s not clear if it’s a standard deal or an Exhibit 10 contract that will give him a chance to earn a roster spot in training camp. New York currently has just 11 players signed to guaranteed contracts, with four additional players on non-guaranteed deals.
Washington played 31 games for the Suns last season, averaging 7.9 points, 1.2 rebounds and 2.0 assists per night before being waived in early February. The Knicks signed him to a two-way contract on February 28, and he appeared in five G League games but didn’t suit up for the NBA team.
Raptors Sign Garrett Temple To One-Year Deal
AUG. 1: Temple’s deal with the Raptors is official, per team release.
JULY 31: The Raptors are signing free agent wing Garrett Temple to a one-year deal worth $3.2MM, agent Mark Bartelstein tells Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN (Twitter link).
Based on the terms of the agreement, Temple will be receiving the veteran’s minimum in 2023/24 for a player with 10+ years of experience. We’ll have to wait to see whether or not the contract is fully guaranteed.
Temple, 37, was waived earlier this month by the Pelicans before his $5.4MM salary became guaranteed. He reached unrestricted free agency a couple days later when he wasn’t claimed off the waiver wire.
Toronto will be Temple’s 12th team as he enters his 14th NBA season, having spent the past two seasons in a limited role with New Orleans. He holds career averages of 6.2 PPG, 2.3 RPG and 1.7 APG on .402/.345/.740 shooting across 716 regular season appearances (288 starts, 20.9 MPG).
Temple is known for being a good locker room presence, notes Blake Murphy of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). The Raptors currently have 15 players signed to standard contracts (14 guaranteed), so Temple will fill the 16th roster spot and potentially the 15th on a guaranteed deal.
If his contract is guaranteed, the team would be about $1.9MM below the luxury tax line, Murphy adds. Toronto also has all three of its two-way slots filled, as shown by our tracker.
Raptors Sign Kevin Obanor To Exhibit 10 Contract
AUG. 1: Obanor’s deal with the Raptors is official, per team release.
JUNE 26: The Raptors are signing free agent forward Kevin Obanor to an Exhibit 10 contract, reports Bryan Kalbrosky of For The Win (Twitter link).
Obanor went undrafted last week after a five-year college career. He spend his first three seasons with Oral Roberts and final two with Texas Tech.
As a “super senior” for the Red Raiders in 2022/23, Obanor averaged 14.4 PPG and 6.4 RPG on .492/.331/.810 shooting in 32 games (30.9 MPG). He shot 38.1% from deep over 156 college games.
If Obanor is waived and then spends at least 60 days with the Raptors 905, Toronto’s G League affiliate, he’d be eligible for a bonus worth up to $75K. His Exhibit 10 contract could also be converted into a two-way deal if he impresses during Summer League and training camp.
And-Ones: Knox, Hoard, Antetokounmpo, Rivers
Overtime Elite has signed five-star recruit Karter Knox, the team tweets. Karter Knox is the younger brother of NBA forward Kevin Knox. He’s entering his senior year of high school after leading Tampa Catholic to state semifinal appearances the last two seasons.
“Karter didn’t really want to leave,” his father Kevin Sr. told PrimeTimePreps.com. “He wanted to try to become the school’s all-time leading scorer and win a state title. If the state offered those (NIL) opportunities, it would have been a much tougher decision. This also gives Karter the ability to have constant training on a daily basis in an IMG type of setup. It is an extremely lucrative opportunity, not just in the money available, but in the value of getting Karter prepared for the next level. It’s just another layer to add to the foundation.”
We have more from around the basketball world:
- Jaylen Hoard has signed a two-year extension with Hapoel Tel Aviv, Sportando relays. Hoard averaged 8.2 points and 4.6 rebounds per game between the Winner League and Eurocup last season. After going undrafted out of Wake Forest in 2019, the 6’8″, French-born swingman joined the Trail Blazers on a two-way deal for the 2019/20 season. He then spent the subsequent two NBA seasons bouncing between the Thunder and their NBAGL affiliate, the Oklahoma City Blue.
- It’s still up in the air whether Giannis Antetokounmpo will play in the FIBA World Cup for the Greek National Team, according to Eurohoops.net. Coach Dimitris Itoudis said Antetokounmpo’s cleanup procedure on his knee in June has led to the uncertainty regarding his availability. “That should be addressed to our doctor and the doctors of the Bucks. The information is that he is making an effort, and he will be reevaluated shortly, and we will have a final decision on whether he will make it or not,” Itoudis said.
- Austin Rivers said on his recent podcast that he’s not a fan of players like Damian Lillard and James Harden demanding to be traded to a certain team (hat tip to NBC Sports’ Kurt Helin). “If you’re a free agent you can choose where you were gonna go, that’s the business. But when you’re not and you sign a deal, that’s part of the business,” Rivers said. “If you get traded somewhere, you got to go play.”
Eastern Notes: Garland, Adebayo, Love, Beauchamp
Cavaliers guard Darius Garland is using the team’s first-r0und playoff loss to New York as fuel for next season, according to Chris Fedor of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
“I’ve been watching a lot of film of it this summer. Just trying to find ways to improve for next year. But now we’ve seen the playoffs,” Garland said. “For a lot of guys, it was our first time in the playoffs, so just getting that playoff experience made us better I think and made us hungrier. Even though we had a good year, I think we can trend up another notch this year and see what’s to come.”
One thing that Garland believes is that the Cavs collectively have to be tougher and stronger in their next postseason appearance.
“We have to be more physical,” Garland said. “I think their physicality took a toll on us in that series. They beat us up. We now know how physical the game is in the playoffs and we know how fast the pace is and every possession matters. Just taking little bits and pieces of that series and trying to put it together for the regular season and then also carry that into the playoffs.”
We have more from the Eastern Conference:
- Bam Adebayo believes the Heat simply wore down during their long postseason run, he told Leonard Solms in an ESPN story. “I feel like we just came up short because we had [among the most] injuries in the 2022-23 season. [Through] all those ups and downs throughout the season… I feel like fatigue had a toll,” he said of the Finals loss to the Nuggets.
- Kevin Love‘s role with the Heat could fluctuate next season, Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel opines. Love could start against bigger front lines with Caleb Martin starting against small-ball lineups, provided Martin isn’t dealt. Love could also see some action as the backup center. However, Winderman notes that coach Erik Spoelstra prefers continuity during the regular season.
- Bucks guard MarJon Beauchamp had a memorable performance at the Crawsover Pro-Am event in his hometown of Seattle over the weekend, JR Radcliffe of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel notes. Beauchamp scored 83 points in a game at Seattle Pacific University to set an event scoring record. He’s expected to have an expanded role next season with the Bucks after playing 52 regular season games as a rookie.
Northwest Notes: Lillard, Wolves, Thunder Roster, OKC Arena
A month after Damian Lillard requested a trade from the Trail Blazers, specifically to the Heat, there’s little movement on a deal with Miami or any other team, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski said on NBA Today (video link).
Lillard’s huge contract, not his desired destination, is the biggest impediment. His contract runs through the 2026/27 season and he’ll make an estimated $58.5MM the previous season before a $63.2MM option in the final year.
“It has simply been – for a lot of teams – his age and the idea of playing him over 60 million dollars at 35 and 36 years old, the last two years of his deal,” Wojnarowski said. “Right not, there’s just not been a lot of engagement among teams on a Lillard trade.”
We have more from the Northwest Division:
- The Thunder might be in a position this upcoming season where they start trading assets rather than hoarding them, The Ringer’s Michael Pina writes. The team may be good enough to warrant some moves that increase its chances of winning in the short term, not just the long term. The Thunder could begin attaching salary to draft capital for more established players, rather than doing the reverse.
- The Timberwolves’ best chance at improvement is to develop young players like Josh Minott, Wendell Moore, Luka Garza and Leonard Miller, Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic writes. The article details Minnesota’s efforts to coach up those reserves. “When you have the roster that we have, we’ve got to be able to develop some of these young guys and turn them into real players,” assistant coach Max Lefevre said. “It’s just huge.”
- Oklahoma City mayor David Holt is more concerned about square footage than a seating capacity exceeding 20,000 in the Thunder’s proposed new arena, Steve Lackmeyer of The Oklahoman relays. Holt addressed a number of questions about the arena and other Thunder-related topics while answering readers’ questions. “Seating capacity is actually not that big of an issue in modern arena planning. The real issue for teams is square footage because the real revenue drivers for users are happening outside of the bowl,” Holt wrote. “That’s why it is so damaging for sports and concerts that our arena is dead-last of all NBA arenas in square footage. Some arenas are literally twice our size and most are 40-50 percent larger. I can’t tell you what the seating capacity of a new arena will be, but the current capacity is not really an issue and hasn’t really come up.”
And-Ones: D. Rivers, M. Jackson, Bahamas, Shooting Tech, Contracts
After letting go of Jeff Van Gundy last month, ESPN/ABC has also laid off fellow analyst Mark Jackson, sources tell Andrew Marchand of The New York Post. Jackson confirmed the news in an interview with Peter Vecsey, Marchand adds (via Twitter).
As Marchand writes, the new top NBA broadcast team at ESPN/ABC will be comprised of longtime play-by-play announcer Mike Breen, former Sixers head coach Doc Rivers, and Doris Burke, who is being promoted. The hiring of Rivers and promotion of Burke aren’t yet official, but they are “quickly moving in that direction,” according to Marchand.
Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald confirms Marchand’s reporting (via Twitter).
Here’s more from around the basketball world:
- The Suns‘ Deandre Ayton and Eric Gordon, Pacers wing Buddy Hield, and Hornets big man Kai Jones are on the 2024 Olympic qualifying roster for the Bahamas, per Marc J. Spears of Andscape. The Bahamian national team will play its qualifying games in Argentina from August 14-20. “I’m excited to be back playing for Team Bahamas and to see how much the program has grown,” Ayton told Spears. “Can’t wait to play with my guys. It’s truly a special experience to compete with teammates – who are from where you’re from – with Bahamas on your chest.”
- Tim MacMahon of ESPN details how Breakaway Data — a startup focused on the biomechanics of shooting — has partnered with Overtime Elite and Las Vegas Summer League to provide detailed breakdowns of each player’s shot. “I thought it was very informative,” Overtime Elite product Amen Thompson, drafted fourth overall by the Rockets, told ESPN. “Not everything works for everybody, but that [data] can’t really be a bad thing. It can only help to get as much information as possible. I felt like that’s what it gave us.”
- Which players have inked the most lucrative contracts in NBA history? Yossi Gozlan of HoopsHype provides the list. Jaylen Brown‘s new super-max extension with the Celtics is the current largest deal ever, Gozlan notes.