2023 NBA Offseason Preview: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves have historically been one of the worst teams in the league, particularly before and after the Kevin Garnett era. But they were one of the best stories of 2021/22, doubling their win total by going 46-36 and making the playoffs as the No. 7 seed before losing their first-round series against Memphis in six games.
Minnesota was determined to avoid regression last offseason and made one of the most shocking trades in NBA history, dealing away three rotation players, five first-round picks and a pick swap for center Rudy Gobert. Unfortunately, his frontcourt partner Karl-Anthony Towns missed much of ’22/23 due to a major calf injury, so the Wolves still only have a small sample size to examine the fit between the two former All-NBA big men.
The Wolves hovered around .500 for much of the season, ultimately finishing 42-40 and avoiding the risk of draft-lottery disaster by making the playoffs as the No. 8 seed (Utah controls Minnesota’s first-round pick, No. 16 overall). Late-season injuries to Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels hurt their depth entering the postseason though, and the Wolves lost their first-round series to the Nuggets in five games.
While it’s a noteworthy accomplishment that the Wolves made the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2002-04, they have their sights set much higher going forward after trading away so many assets for Gobert.
The Timberwolves’ Offseason Plan
Minnesota is faced with a lot of difficult questions this offseason. The most prominent is whether or not the pairing of Gobert and Towns can ultimately lead to a championship when they’re taking up such a huge portion of the payroll, especially when it’s clear the future hinges on the evolution of Anthony Edwards (and, to a lesser extent, Jaden McDaniels).
I’m not going to go too deep into revisiting the Gobert trade, but needless to say it does not look good at all for the Wolves. Is there anyone right now that would even take Gobert in a one-for-one trade for Walker Kessler, the No. 22 overall pick last year who was sent to the Jazz as part of the deal?
Gobert makes $131.5MM over the next three seasons and will turn 31 years old next month. Kessler, who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting and nearly doubled Gobert’s block total (173 vs. 95) in far fewer minutes, will earn $10.7MM over the next three seasons and turns 22 in July. And the Wolves still owe the Jazz four additional first-rounders and a pick swap, not to mention the other players involved.
But I digress. Gobert is on the roster now, and the Wolves can only hope that he returns next season as the dominant paint protector he had been for the better part of the past decade. That version of Gobert was not present for much of ’22/23 — he didn’t receive a single vote for All-Defense or Defensive Player of the Year after making six consecutive All-Defensive First Teams and winning three Defensive Player of the Year awards from 2016-22. His trade value has bottomed out, because he has never been a great offensive player.
The Wolves will almost certainly offer Edwards a rookie scale max extension, and his fellow 2020 draft class member McDaniels is likely to get a very lucrative extension as well. It will be interesting to see exactly how much he receives with the addition of a possible fifth year for non-max rookie scale extensions.
Those extensions won’t take effect until ’24/25, which gives the Wolves a little bit of breathing room this offseason. But that’s also the main reason why I think they should explore the trade market for Towns this offseason in an effort to split his salary slot into smaller pieces. It doesn’t seem like they’ll actually do that, but that’s what I would do.
After signing a super-max extension last summer following an All-NBA appearance in ’21/22, Towns will earn an estimated $220MM+ from 2024-2028 (35% of the salary cap). Edwards will likely be making 25-30% of the cap as well, depending on whether he makes an All-NBA team next season. Gobert will be making nearly $44MM in 2024/25, which is close to the max. Even conservatively projecting McDaniels for a salary of $20MM, the Wolves would be faced with an enormous payroll two years from now. That isn’t sustainable.
Towns is an incredibly skilled and talented offensive player, but he doesn’t make great decisions and I doubt he’ll ever hold up well enough on defense to be worth that financial commitment. His brief playoff performances have been uneven at best.
The question is, what can they get for Towns? He’s only 27, so he’s theoretically in his prime. Minnesota wants to give itself the best chance to win the championship, so draft picks are unlikely to be of interest unless they can be rerouted as part of a three-way trade. Young players on rookie contracts would be appealing, but matching salaries wouldn’t be easy.
The Wolves are highly likely to guarantee the salaries of Mike Conley and Taurean Prince for ’23/24, as both were key rotation members last season. That would push their ’23/24 payroll up to $139.8MM — over the projected $134MM cap — with nine players under contract. Staying under the $162MM luxury tax while improving the roster will be tricky, especially when considering their own free agents, which include Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid.
I really like Alexander-Walker’s defense, but I’m not sure he’s a lock to receive the $7MM qualifying offer that would make him a restricted free agent. If the Wolves don’t issue the QO, the 24-year-old would be unrestricted and free to sign with any team. That doesn’t mean the Wolves couldn’t bring him back, but it would be a risk if they do want to retain him, since they’d lose control of the process.
The other young guard, Nowell, might have one foot out the door already, based on various reports throughout the season. He seems intent on testing his value on the open market. Interest seems likely to be tepid though after a down season that saw him shoot just 28.9% from deep.
Reid, on the other hand, should attract a lot of interest after a career year. The Wolves have said they want to retain him, and they have his Bird rights, but I wonder if he’ll look for an opportunity for more minutes elsewhere in his first foray into free agency. Losing him would be a big blow to the team’s frontcourt depth, but you could also argue it would be difficult to justify paying him with Gobert and Towns already under long-term contracts. I’m very curious to see what type of deal he’ll get. I would rather have Reid at around $12MM per year than pay Towns four or five times that much in the future.
Jordan McLaughlin, whose contract is non-guaranteed, had a disappointing and injury-riddled season as the backup point guard. His contract is affordable enough, but I think the Wolves will look to upgrade that position, whether it be in free agency or via trade. Conley showed he could still contribute at a quality level last season, but he’ll be 36 when next season starts and on an expiring contract. Point guard is a position to watch going forward in Minnesota.
How many of their own free agents the Wolves retain — and how much they pay them — will determine whether or not they’ll have access to the full mid-level exception to sign other free agents.
Salary Cap Situation
Guaranteed Salary
Rudy Gobert ($41,000,000)- Karl-Anthony Towns ($36,016,200)
- Mike Conley ($14,320,000)
- Note: Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
- Anthony Edwards ($13,534,817)
- Kyle Anderson ($9,219,512)
- Jaden McDaniels ($3,901,399)
- Wendell Moore ($2,421,720)
- Josh Minott ($1,719,864)
- Total: $122,133,512
Dead/Retained Salary
- None
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- Nathan Knight ($1,997,238): Early Bird rights
- Note: Knight’s salary would be partially guaranteed ($380,718) if his option is exercised.
- Total: $1,997,238
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Mike Conley ($10,040,000)
- Note: Partial guarantee. Conley’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 24.
- Taurean Prince ($7,650,000)
- Note: Prince’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 28.
- Jordan McLaughlin ($2,320,000)
- Note: McLaughlin’s salary would become fully guaranteed if he’s not waived on or before June 30.
- Total: $20,010,000
Restricted Free Agents
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($7,073,602 qualifying offer / $15,028,899 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $15,028,899
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 53 overall (no cap hold)
Extension-Eligible Players
- Mike Conley (veteran)
- Rudy Gobert (veteran)
- Jordan McLaughlin (veteran)
- Jaylen Nowell (veteran)
- Naz Reid (veteran)
- Anthony Edwards (rookie scale)
- Jaden McDaniels (rookie scale)
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2023/24 season begins. Nowell and Reid are only eligible until June 30.
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Evan Turner ($27,909,834 cap hold): Bird rights
- Jaylen Nowell ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
- Naz Reid ($1,989,698 cap hold): Bird rights
- Austin Rivers ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Aaron Brooks ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Greg Monroe ($1,989,698 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $37,858,324
Note: The cap holds for Turner, Brooks, and Monroe remain on the Timberwolves’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $12,220,600
- Bi-annual exception: $4,448,000
- Trade exception: $4,374,000
- Note: Expires on July 6.
- Trade exception: $3,688,117
Note: The Timberwolves would lose access to the full mid-level exception and the bi-annual exception if their team salary surpasses the tax apron.
Hoops Rumors Glossary: Trade Rules For Non-Guaranteed Salaries
Under the NBA’s old Collective Bargaining Agreement, which was in effect through the 2016/17 season, a player’s full cap hit was used for salary-matching purposes in trades, whether or not his salary was guaranteed. If a player had an $10MM salary with a partial guarantee of $1MM, his outgoing salary in a trade was the same as it would have been for a player who had a fully guaranteed $10MM contract.
That’s no longer the case, however. Now, only the guaranteed portion of a player’s contract counts for outgoing salary purposes in a trade, limiting the appeal of non-guaranteed salaries as trade chips.
This detail is crucial for determining how much salary a team can acquire in a trade — unless a team is under the cap, the amount of salary it sends out in a trade dictates how much salary it can take back. The amount of salary an over-the-cap team can acquire in a trade ranges from 125% to 175% of its outgoing salary, depending on exactly how much salary the team is sending out and whether or not the team is a taxpayer.
Under the old system, it might make sense for a cap-strapped club to trade a player with a guaranteed salary for a player earning an equivalent non-guaranteed salary — the cap-strapped club could then waive that newly-acquired player to cut costs. That’s no longer a viable strategy.
Complicating matters further is the fact that a team can’t simply circumvent the new rules by trading a player before a league year ends on June 30, then having his new team waive him once his new non-guaranteed cap hit goes into effect on July 1. After the end of the regular season, a player’s outgoing salary for trade purposes is the lesser of his current-year salary and the guaranteed portion of his salary for the following season.
Here’s a practical example: Chris Paul‘s deal with the Suns featured a fully guaranteed salary of $28.4MM in 2022/23, with only $15.8MM of $30.8MM guaranteed for ’23/24. Between the end of the Suns’ season and June 28 – which is when Paul’s full ’23/24 salary will become guaranteed – his outgoing salary for matching purposes is just $15.8MM, but his incoming salary for his new team would be $30.8MM.
Paul is far from the only player who could be affected by these trade rules this summer. Nets forward Royce O’Neale, Jazz big man Kelly Olynyk, Clippers guard Eric Gordon, Lakers center Mohamed Bamba, and Magic wing Gary Harris are among the many players who have partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed salaries for 2023/24 and won’t make great trade candidates unless those guarantees are increased.
Last offseason, when the Hawks agreed to send Danilo Gallinari to the Spurs in their trade for Dejounte Murray, Gallinari’s cap charges were $20.5MM for 2021/22 and $21.5MM for ’22/23, which should have been more than enough to account for Murray’s incoming salary ($15.4MM for ’21/22; $16.6MM in ’22/23). But Gallinari’s 2022/23 salary was only partially guaranteed for $5MM, which wouldn’t have been satisfactory to match Murray’s full cap hit, so Atlanta and San Antonio had to increase that partial guarantee in order to make the deal legal.
To paint a complete picture of exactly how these new rules work, let’s assume that a free agent signs a two-year, $24MM contract during the summer of 2023. His cap hit in each year is $12MM, but the first season of the contract is partially guaranteed for $3MM, while the second year is fully non-guaranteed. Here’s how it would count, for trade purposes, as outgoing salary:
- From the date of the signing until the one-quarter mark of the 2023/24 season:
- $3MM
- Note: Due to other CBA rules, the player wouldn’t become trade-eligible until at least December 15, 2023 anyway.
- From the one-quarter mark of the 2023/24 regular season until salaries become guaranteed on January 10, 2023:
- A prorated amount of the salary based on the player’s earnings to date.
- Note: The player would earn 1/174th of his $12MM salary per day; so 60 days into the season, his outgoing salary in a trade would be $4,137,931 (60/174ths of $12MM).
- From January 10, 2024 until the 2024 trade deadline:
- $12MM
- From the day after the team’s 2023/24 season ends until the start of the 2024/25 regular season:
- $0
- From the start of the 2024/25 regular season until salaries become guaranteed on January 10, 2025:
- A prorated amount of salary based on earnings to date.
- Note: The player would once again earn 1/174th of his $12MM salary per day; so 10 days into the season, his outgoing salary in a trade would be $689,655 (10/174ths of $12MM).
- From January 10, 2025 until the 2025 trade deadline:
- $12MM
This change to the NBA’s trade rules hasn’t stopped teams from tacking on non-guaranteed years to the end of certain players’ contracts, since those non-guaranteed salaries still provide flexibility. However, we’re not seeing teams construct contracts with non-guaranteed cap hits solely for trade purposes like we sometimes used to.
Note: This is a Hoops Rumors Glossary entry. Our glossary posts will explain specific rules relating to trades, free agency, or other aspects of the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement. Larry Coon’s Salary Cap FAQ was used in the creation of this post.
Draft Decisions: Prosper, Collins, Stevens, Thomas, Mitchell
Viewed as one of the biggest winners of last week’s draft combine in Chicago, Marquette junior Olivier-Maxence Prosper has decided to keep his name in the 2023 NBA draft and forgo his remaining NCAA eligibility, he tells Jonathan Givony of ESPN.
“After talking to my family, agents, and evaluating the feedback I’ve gotten after the draft combine and my pro day, I’ve decided to keep my name in,” Prosper said. “Teams say they are really intrigued by me and value my skill set and ability to impact the game on both ends. I’m ready to make that jump and go after this.”
After performing well in his first combine scrimmage, Prosper had an impressive pro day showing in Los Angeles on Tuesday, according to Givony, who lists the 6’8″ forward as the No. 32 prospect on ESPN’s big board. Prosper had individual workouts with five NBA teams prior to the combine and is expected to visit many more in the coming weeks, Givony adds.
Here are a few more updates on early entrants deciding whether or not to stay in the draft:
- Arizona State guard Frankie Collins, who averaged 9.7 PPG and 4.3 APG as a sophomore last season, will be withdrawing from the draft and returning to school for his junior year, he announced on Twitter.
- Colorado State guard Isaiah Stevens will take his name out of the 2023 draft and take advantage of his “super-senior” year of NCAA eligibility. Stevens, who made his announcement on Instagram, averaged 17.9 PPG and 6.7 APG in 26 games (36.8 MPG) in 2022/23.
- Agent Kevin Martin tells Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports (Twitter links) that a pair of his clients – Hofstra’s Tyler Thomas and Rayquawndis Mitchell, who is transferring from Kansas City to Penn State – are pulling out of the draft to return to school. Martin is an NCAA-certified agent, so his clients are permitted to test the draft waters without forfeiting their remaining college eligibility.
Lakers Rumors: Russell, Point Guard, LeBron, Hachimura
Before he was traded from Minnesota to the Lakers in February, D’Angelo Russell was believed to be seeking $100MM over four years on his next contract, according to Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports. Russell, who will be a free agent this summer, had an up-and-down postseason and only played 15 minutes off the bench in the final game of L.A.’s season, so Fischer is skeptical there will be bidders at that price point.
Still, Fischer hears from sources that Russell was viewed as a “positive presence” in the Lakers’ locker room and speculates that the two sides may be able to get a shorter-term (and less lucrative) deal done. Los Angeles could even keep D-Lo off the free agent market altogether by signing him to an extension on or before June 30.
Because he was traded within the last six months, Russell would be ineligible to sign an extension longer than two years, and Dave McMenamin of ESPN hears that the Lakers won’t pursue a two-year deal worth the veteran guard’s maximum number (approximately $67.5MM). However, Fischer suggests that something closer to $40MM over two years might make sense for both sides.
Given Russell’s playoff struggles, it’s certainly possible the Lakers will explore alternatives at point guard this summer, but their flexibility will be limited if they intend to bring back free agents like Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura, as has been reported. Within his ESPN.com story, McMenamin explores the different paths L.A. could take at the point guard spot, noting that the team might be able to package Malik Beasley ($16.5MM) and Mohamed Bamba ($10.3MM) in a trade to bring someone in without requiring cap room.
Here’s more on the Lakers:
- There’s “widespread skepticism” that LeBron James will retire this offseason, according to Fischer, who says LeBron’s post-game comments on Monday surprised many team staffers. McMenamin, like, some other reporters earlier in the week, cites a source close to James who believes LeBron will return in 2023/24. Nonetheless, if only as a thought exercise, Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report explores what the Lakers’ next steps might look like if the future Hall-of-Famer does decide to call it a career this offseason.
- While retirement may not be in the cards for James this summer, foot surgery could be. After McMenamin reported this week that LeBron isn’t ruling out the possibility of undergoing a procedure to address a torn tendon in his right foot, Shams Charania of The Athletic says that surgery would likely sideline the 38-year-old for about two months, with an expectation that he’d be ready for training camp. James is undergoing further evaluations to determine whether it’s necessary.
- During extension negotiations with Rui Hachimura last fall, the Wizards initially offered a contract in the neighborhood of $12MM per year and eventually bumped that offer to $13-14MM, according to Fischer. Hachimura’s camp was seeking something in the four-year, $60MM range, so a deal didn’t get done. The Lakers forward appears to be in good position to match or exceed that number after a strong finish to the regular season and a productive postseason — Fischer views $15MM per year as a possible floor for Hachimura.
- The Pacers and Suns could be rival suitors to watch for Hachimura, per Fischer, who notes that both clubs pursued him on the trade market during the winter. The Pacers, who will have cap room this offseason, are better positioned to consider an offer sheet for Hachimura than the capped-out Suns would be.
Wizards’ Michael Winger Talks New Role, Clippers Tenure, Beal, More
Having passed on the opportunity to interview for a general manager role with at least one other NBA team in the past, Michael Winger tells Andrew Greif of The Los Angeles Times that he had begun to wonder whether he’d get an opportunity to become the lead executive in a front office. That was the impetus for his decision to pursue the job as the Wizards‘ president, a position he officially secured on Thursday.
“Seldom, I think, in pro sports do those opportunities come along where almost all of your boxes, if not all of your boxes, are checked,” Winger said. “And this was I think the rare and supremely fortunate opportunity for somebody like me to check all the boxes: ownership, market, fan base, already a talented team.”
Winger has some familiarity with the Washington area already, as Greif notes. The former Clippers general manager lived in Baltimore during his final year of law school and often visited friends in D.C. during that time.
“I just felt like if I’m ever going to challenge myself, now’s the time and (Wizards owner) Ted (Leonsis) is the right person,” Winger said. “I think D.C. is the right fan base.”
Here’s more from the new Wizards executive on the challenges that await him in D.C. and the six years he spent in Los Angeles as the Clippers’ GM:
- According to Winger, he achieved most of his goals with the Clippers over the last six years, having helped turn the franchise into a desirable destination for stars. Of course, there’s one notable goal that will go unresolved. “I would have liked to have won one or more championships in the four years that we’ve had Paul (George) and Kawhi (Leonard), but every team that tries to win a championship and doesn’t wishes that they would have won a championship,” Winger told Greif. “I mean, certainly winning at the highest level would have been awesome. What else? That’s really it.”
- Winger added that he still has full confidence that George and Leonard are a “championship tandem” capable of leading the Clippers to a title: “I believe that to my core that those two guys when healthy can absolutely win a championship, so I’m a little sad that I’m not gonna be there when they finally do.”
- Most of Winger’s conversations with Leonsis during the interview process focused on a “big-picture vision” for the Wizards rather than on specific roster moves, writes Greif. The plan is to dig deeper into specific plans for the roster once Winger brings in a second executive who will focus exclusively on the Wizards in a GM-type role.
- Winger said he’s thrilled about the prospect of having Bradley Beal as the cornerstone of Washington’s roster: “His former coaches, his former teammates, they all have extraordinarily high regard for him, and he is unequivocally a superstar. The hardest thing to do in the NBA is acquire a superstar talent and it’s even harder to acquire superstar talent with his level of character. And so, I think it’s an extremely, extremely fortunate starting point. So to me, that’s really exciting to have somebody like Brad on the team.”
- Winger is confident that Leonsis will “put forth both the resources and the patience” to build the Wizards into an organization with a winning culture, pointing to Leonsis’ work with the NHL’s Washington Capitals as proof of his ability to steward a successful franchise. “It’s just a matter of taking some of those principles, injecting the equivalent of the NBA’s nuances into those principles, and hopefully building something that is sturdy, sound, attracts good players, attracts good staff, keeps good players, keeps good staff, and ultimately wins basketball games,” Winger told Greif.
Sixers Notes: Harden, Embiid, Rivers, Offseason
As the rumors linking to James Harden to the Rockets persist, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst suggests it’s still an open question whether those leaks are primarily aimed at generating leverage for Harden in his talks with the Sixers. Appearing on Pardon The Interruption (video link) this week, Windhorst suggested that Philadelphia is reluctant to give Harden a maximum-salary contract, especially if no rival suitors are willing to do so.
“The 76ers have not shown an appetite to pay Harden the max,”Windhorst said (hat tip to Ky Carlin of Sixers Wire). “That’s why they asked him to take a pay cut last year. The Rockets have the cap space. Do they do it? You know, there’s been a very hard rumor out there in the NBA about Harden’s intent to go back to Houston, and it makes you wonder if it’s being sold a little bit too hard and that’s certainly something that people are considering.
“I guess we’re gonna wait and find out, but again… the Sixers are not really motivated to pay him that max salary if they don’t think anybody else is gonna do it.”
Based on current cap projections for 2023/24, a four-year maximum-salary contract for Harden in Philadelphia would be worth approximately $210MM. A five-year deal is essentially impossible due to the NBA’s over-38 rule.
Here’s more on the Sixers:
- In a mailbag for The Philadelphia Inquirer, Keith Pompey writes that Joel Embiid is “untouchable” for now and opines that Nick Nurse would be the best head coaching candidate for the 76ers’ star center.
- While opting to replace Doc Rivers after three years was a reasonable decision, Rivers didn’t do a bad job this postseason and there probably wasn’t a coach who would’ve put the Sixers over the top this year, Rich Hofmann of The Athletic says within a mailbag on the team’s approach to the offseason. Hofmann also discusses Embiid’s future in Philadelphia and the club’s salary cap outlook, among other topics.
- In part two of his mailbag, Hofmann evaluates Tobias Harris‘ trade value and identifies some possible free agent targets for the Sixers in the event that Harden walks. Donte DiVincenzo, Bruce Brown, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Seth Curry are among the players that could be of interest to Philadelphia in free agency, in Hofmann’s view.
- Each of the Sixers’ rumored head coaching candidates has their own set of baggage, according to Mike Sielski of The Philadelphia Inquirer (subscription required), who identifies the red flags for Mike Budenholzer and Nurse, among others.
Hawks Hiring Igor Kokoskov As Assistant Coach
MAY 26: Kokoskov has signed a contract with the Hawks to become the top assistant on Synder’s staff, reports ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowsi (Twitter link).
MAY 22: The Hawks are nearing a deal to hire Igor Kokoskov as an assistant coach, league sources tell Marc Stein (Twitter link). Michael Scotto of HoopsHype was the first to link Kokoskov to Atlanta.
As Stein writes in his latest article at Substack, Kokoskov is expected to be the top assistant under head coach Quin Snyder, who was hired mid-season after Atlanta fired Nate McMillan. Kokoskov worked with Snyder for three years in Utah from 2015-18.
Kokoskov, who is Serbian and became a U.S. citizen in 2010, became the first head coach born and raised outside of North America when the Suns hired him in 2018/19. He was dismissed following the season after the club went 19-63.
The 51-year-old has extensive NBA experience, having served as an assistant coach for 20 years with the Clippers, Pistons, Suns, Cavs, Magic, Jazz, Kings, Mavericks, and most recently with the Nets in ’22/23. He’s known as a creative coach with an emphasis in player development.
In addition to his NBA coaching jobs, Kokoškov has been head coach of the Georgian, Slovenian and Serbian national teams, leading Slovenia to a EuroBasket gold medal in 2017. He also was the head coach of Turkish club Fenerbahçe in ’20/21.
Poll: Will Celtics Complete Eastern Finals Comeback?
An oft-repeated statistic made the rounds in the NBA world last weekend when the Lakers and Celtics fell behind by a 3-0 margin in their respective conference finals — NBA teams who lost the first three games of a best-of-seven series had a record of 0-149.
The Lakers became the 150th consecutive team to lose a series after dropping the first three games, and it looked heading into Game 4 in Miami on Tuesday like the Celtics would become the 151st, having shown few signs in their first three games against the Heat that they were capable of a history-making comeback.
But a big third quarter and an excellent night from Jayson Tatum, who had a game-high 33 points, fueled a road victory for the Celtics in Game 4. Back in Boston for Game 5 on Thursday, the C’s took a big lead early in the game with a 14-0 first quarter run and never surrendered that lead, forcing a Game 6 in Miami on Saturday.
The Heat still have the upper hand in the series, with a 3-2 lead and a home game on tap, but suddenly the idea of a Celtics comeback doesn’t seem outlandish. Miami’s roster is as banged up as it’s been at any point in the postseason, with Gabe Vincent (ankle) joining Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo on the inactive list for Game 5, leaving the club with little depth in its backcourt.
Heat star Jimmy Butler, who averaged 31.1 PPG on 51.8% shooting in his first 12 playoff contests this spring, has come down to earth a little in his last three games vs. Boston, with those averages dipping to 19.7 PPG and 43.2% shooting (including just 1-of-7 on three-pointers).
According to BetOnline.ag, the Heat are still the betting favorites to make the NBA Finals, but their odds are down to -145 (the Celtics are +125 underdog). And Boston is considered the better bet to win Game 6, having been listed as 2.5-point favorites.
Over the course of NBA history, teams in Boston’s position are 0-for-150, but if ever that streak is going to be broken, it could be in circumstances like these ones. Miami was a play-in team that has exceeded all expectations but is dealing with a handful of injuries and having its depth tested. The Celtics were a dominant regular season team, posting the NBA’s best net rating (+6.7) and second-best record (57-25).
We want to know what you think. Will the Celtics actually complete this improbable comeback or will their efforts hit a wall in Game 6 or 7?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to weigh in with your predictions for the rest of the Eastern Conference Finals!
Who will win the Eastern Conference Finals?
-
Boston Celtics in seven games 50% (669)
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Miami Heat in six games 43% (571)
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Miami Heat in seven games 7% (92)
Total votes: 1,332
Pacific Notes: Curry, Ranadive, Suns, Frank
All-Star Warriors point guard Stephen Curry has been named the league’s 2022-23 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Social Justice Champion, the NBA has announced in a press release.
Curry’s efforts in the social justice sphere of late include promoting voting initiatives and building awareness about community safety. He and his wife Ayesha Curry run a non-profit, Eat. Learn. Play., focused on ensuring nutritious foods be provided to children in underserved Oakland communities. Curry also runs a lifestyle brand, UNDERRATED, and Unanimous Media, a multimedia company, which are designed to create opportunities for underrepresented athletes and creators, respectively.
As a condition of Curry’s win this year, the NBA will donate $100K to the social justice cause of Curry’s choosing, the University of San Francisco Institute for Nonviolence and Social Justice.
Grizzlies big man Jaren Jackson Jr., Spurs reserve point guard Tre Jones, Suns starting point guard Chris Paul and Celtics power forward Grant Williams were the other four finalists for the award. All will earn $25K from the league, to be donated to the charity of their choosing.
There’s more out of the Pacific Division:
- Kings majority owner Vivek Ranadive was among seven finalists bidding for NHL club the Ottawa Senators, but has since fallen out of the running, per Randy Diamond of The Sacramento Bee. Each of the seven finalists had reportedly been proposing purchase prices north of $800MM. Ranadive’s ownership group bought Sacramento a decade ago for $533MM. The club’s valuation is currently estimated at $2.5 billion.
- The Suns’ interviews for their head coaching vacancy might conclude this weekend, reports John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix (Twitter link). Former Raptors head coach Nick Nurse and Kings associate head coach Jordi Fernandez interviewed on Thursday. Ex-Lakers head coach Frank Vogel and ex-Sixers head coach Doc Rivers, who coached Phoenix starting point guard Chris Paul on the Clippers, are set to meet with Suns executives on Friday.
- Clippers team president Lawrence Frank released a statement thanking and congratulating former Los Angeles GM Michael Winger on his new job as team president for the Wizards (Twitter link). “Michael is one of the NBA’s brightest team-builders, a strategic and creative thinker who is always a step ahead,” Frank said in part.
Lakers Notes: LeBron, Offseason, Kyrie, Prospects
All-NBA Lakers small forward LeBron James surprised the basketball world at large on Monday when he suggested he would be contemplating retirement this offseason.
Shams Charania said on FanDuel TV (Twitter video link) that he believes the 19-time All-Star will stick around at least a while longer.
“My sense is LeBron could have two years left remaining in his his career,” Charania said. “… There’s certainly an expectation that he’s gonna continue playing, he’s got two years left on his Lakers deal. … It would be a true surprise if he really did actually retire.”
There’s more out of Los Angeles:
- The Lakers only have three guaranteed contracts on their books for 2023/24. Multiple league executives spoke with Sean Deveney of Heavy.com about what Los Angeles might decide to do this offseason in terms of roster construction. The team has a player option on swingman Malik Beasley, which one executive expects the club to pick up. “He can be a contributor, really on any team,” they said. “The expectation is they’ll keep him. He can be a good trade piece if you need one. It’s just, if the tax is a big worry, he’d be the easy piece to move off of.” Following some big playoff games essentially in Beasley’s stead, unrestricted free agent Lonnie Walker IV may get more money elsewhere, another executive speculates. “I can’t see how they can pay him, he is probably a goner,” the exec said.
- James’ former Cavaliers teammate Kyrie Irving, now an unrestricted free agent, has long been seen as a potential fit for Los Angeles. Jason Lloyd and Jon Greenberg of The Athletic weigh the pros and cons of adding an erratic, controversial talent of Irving’s caliber and price tag.
- The Lakers, possessors of the Nos. 17 and 47 picks in this year’s draft, will work out six young prospects on Friday, headlined by G League Ignite small forward Leonard Miller, according to Dave McMenamin of ESPN (Twitter link). Virginia guard Kihei Clark, Kentucky forward Chris Livingston, Pepperdine forward Maxwell Lewis, Dayton forward DaRon Holmes II, and Baylor guard Adam Flagler round out the invitees.