Details On Traded Picks, Upcoming Draft Tiebreakers
With the 2017/18 NBA regular season in the books, the postseason matchups are set in both the Eastern Conference and the Western Conference.
More importantly for fans of most non-playoff teams, the end of the regular season means that the 2018 NBA draft picture is clearer than ever. The 2018 draft order is close to being set and – with a small handful of exceptions – most of this year’s traded draft picks with protections on them have now officially changed hands or officially stayed put.
However, there are still some major question marks surrounding the draft order, since several clubs finished the regular season with identical records, and draft tiebreakers don’t work like playoff tiebreakers do. In order to break these ties, the NBA will conduct random drawings this Friday, as Jonathan Givony of ESPN notes (via Twitter).
[RELATED: 2017/18 NBA Reverse Standings]
For lottery teams, such as the 24-58 Mavericks and Hawks, who finished tied for third in the lottery standings, the implications of those drawings are huge. Whichever team wins that tiebreaker will have ever-so-slightly better odds at the first overall pick (13.8% to 13.7%), and will be in position to claim the higher first-round pick if neither team lands in the top three.
For instance, if the Suns and Grizzlies remain at No. 1 and No. 2 in the lottery and another team leapfrogs the Mavs and Hawks, the winner of the tiebreaker between Dallas and Atlanta would claim the No. 4 overall pick — the loser would get No. 5. For the second round, the loser of the tiebreaker would receive the higher selection.
Here are the draft tiebreakers that will be conducted on Friday:
- Mavericks vs. Hawks for Nos. 3, 4.
- Kings vs. Bulls for Nos. 6, 7.
- Bucks vs. Heat for Nos. 16, 17.
- Spurs vs. Timberwolves for Nos. 18, 19.
- Pacers vs. Pelicans vs. Thunder vs. Jazz for Nos. 20-23.
Several of those tiebreakers will also affect this year’s traded picks. Most notably, the Bucks/Heat drawing has massive implications for Milwaukee and Phoenix — the Bucks’ first-round pick will head to the Suns if it lands at No. 16, but Milwaukee would keep it if it ends up at No. 17. In other words, each team has a 50/50 shot at the pick. If the Bucks keep it, they’d owe their 2019 first-round selection to Phoenix, albeit with somewhat similar protections.
Here’s a breakdown of the traded first-round picks for 2018. A check mark indicates the pick will definitely be sent to the indicated team:
- Nets pick to Cavaliers (✔️): Eighth in lottery standings
- Lakers pick to Sixers (97.1%) or Celtics (2.9%): 10th in lottery standings
- Note: Celtics will receive pick if it lands at No. 2 or No. 3 via the lottery.
- Pistons pick to Clippers (97.5%): 12th in lottery standings
- Note: Pistons will keep pick if it lands in top three via the lottery.
- Heat pick to Suns (✔️): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
- Bucks pick to Suns (50%): No. 16 or 17 (tie)
- Note: Bucks will keep pick if it lands at No. 17 via a random drawing.
- Timberwolves pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 18 or 19 (tie)
- Thunder pick to Timberwolves (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
- Pelicans pick to Bulls (✔️): No. 20, 21, 22, or 23 (four-way tie)
- Cavaliers pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 25
- Raptors pick to Nets (✔️): No. 29
- Rockets pick to Hawks (✔️): No. 30
Here’s a breakdown of the traded second-round picks that will change hands in 2018:
- Bulls pick to Knicks (✔️): No. 36 or 37 (tie)
- Nets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 38
- Knicks pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 39
- Lakers pick to Nets (✔️): No. 40
- Hornets pick to Magic (✔️): No. 41
- Clippers pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 43
- Bucks pick to Nets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
- Heat pick to Rockets (✔️): No. 45 or 46 (tie)
- Nuggets pick to Lakers (✔️): No. 47
- Trail Blazers pick to Mavericks (✔️): No. 54
- Cavaliers pick to Hornets (✔️): No. 55
- Celtics pick to Thunder (✔️): No. 57
- Warriors pick to Nuggets (✔️): No. 58
- Raptors pick to Suns (✔️): No. 59
- Rockets pick to Sixers (✔️): No. 60
Western Conference Playoff Seeding
11:54pm: The Trail Blazers have defeated the Jazz in their regular season finale and clinched the No. 3 seed with the win. Here are the first-round matchups in the Western Conference:
- Rockets (No. 1) vs. Timberwolves (No. 8)
- Warriors (No. 2) vs. Spurs (No. 7)
- Trail Blazers (No. 3) vs. Pelicans (No. 6)
- Thunder (No. 4) vs. Jazz (No. 5)
9:47pm: The Timberwolves have beaten the Nuggets and clinched the final spot in the 2018 NBA Playoffs. We now know the following.
- The Nuggets will miss the playoffs
- The Timberwolves are the No. 8 seed.
- The Spurs are the No. 7 seed.
- If the Trail Blazers beat the Jazz:
- Pelicans are No. 6
- Jazz are No. 5
- Thunder are No. 4
- Blazers are No. 3
- If the Jazz beat the Trail Blazers:
- Thunder are No. 6
- Pelicans are No. 5
- Blazers are No. 4
- Jazz are No. 3
8:54pm: The Thunder lead the Grizzlies by 12 with less than nine minutes remaining, while the Pelicans lead the Spurs by 18 with less than 10 minutes remaining. Barring a surprise comeback by Memphis or San Antonio, here is how the playoff picture looks after wins by Oklahoma City and New Orleans.
Jazz: 3 or 5
Trail Blazers: 3 or 4
Thunder: 4 or 6
Pelicans: 5 or 6
Spurs: 7 or 8
Timberwolves: 8 or 9
Nuggets: 7 or 9
4:37pm: As we indicated earlier today, the Nuggets and Timberwolves will face-off tonight with the final spot of the 2018 NBA Playoffs on the line.
And while that game will be the only winner-gets-in, loser-gets-eliminated contest tonight, there are numerous other games with playoff seeding implications on the line. In the Western Conference, only the Rockets and the Warriors know their playoff seeding. Seeds three through eight are all still up for grabs, as follows:
Jazz: 3, 4, or 5
Trail Blazers: 3, 4, or 5
Pelicans: 5, 6, 7, or 8
Spurs: 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8
Thunder: 4, 6, or 8
Timberwolves: 6, 7, 8, or 9
Nuggets: 6, 7, or 9
We will be updating the Western Conference playoff seeding scenarios – in real time – as games finish this evening, so stay tuned to Hoops Rumors for all relevant up-to-the-minute developments. For now, here are some initial notes that are not conditional upon other game results:
- The Jazz and Trail Blazers winner gets the No. 3 seed.
- The Thunder will be the No. 8 seed with a loss to the Grizzlies.
- As noted above, the loser of the Nuggets and Wolves will finish ninth in the Western Conference standings.
Contract Notes: Embiid, Davis, Lillard, Lowry
When All-NBA voters decide whether or not to classify Anthony Davis as a forward or center on their ballots this year, they may indirectly impact the value of Joel Embiid‘s new contract by approximately $30MM.
As Bobby Marks of ESPN details, the extension Embiid signed with the Sixers last offseason will be worth 25% of the cap starting in 2018/19. However, the contract includes a clause that states his starting salary would increase to 30% if he’s named to the All-NBA First Team. That salary bump would increase his overall earnings by about $30MM over the life of the five-year deal, but it can probably only happen if Davis receives most of his All-NBA votes at forward. Otherwise, he seems like a good bet to beat out Embiid for the center spot on the First Team.
No player has more at stake as a result of All-NBA voting or various other benchmarks than Embiid. But that contract is just one of many that could be affected by a variety of award results, postseason outcomes, or other criteria.
Marks’ piece is worth checking out in full for all the details, but here’s a quick look at a few noteworthy contract situations:
- Pelicans star Anthony Davis will become eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension in 2019 if he earns an All-NBA spot this year. However, Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard is among the players who would need another All-NBA nod in 2019 to qualify for a supermax deal, even if he’s on this year’s All-NBA squad. Those Designated Veteran Extensions are known as supermax contracts because they start at 35% of the salary cap instead of 30%.
- Kyle Lowry (Raptors) and Victor Oladipo (Pacers) would get sizable bonuses if their teams make deep playoff runs. Lowry would receive $500K for reaching the Eastern Finals, another $500K for winning the East, and another $500K for a title. Oladipo would earn $250K if Indiana reaches the NBA Finals.
- All-Defense honors would pay off for Jazz center Rudy Gobert and Pelicans guard Jrue Holiday. Gobert will get a $500K bonus if he’s named to the All-Defense First Team, while Holiday would get $100K for a spot on the First Team or Second Team.
- Among the players who have already earned bonuses: Hawks center Dewayne Dedmon ($900K for incentives related to points, rebounds, and games played), Trail Blazers forward Maurice Harkless ($500K for his three-point percentage), Bucks center John Henson ($500K for playing 75+ games), and Jazz guard Ricky Rubio ($175K for his field-goal and free-throw percentages).
Potential 2018 RFAs Whose Qualifying Offers Will Be Impacted By Starter Criteria
The NBA’s rookie scale, which dictates how much first-round picks earn during their first four NBA seasons, also dictates how much the qualifying offers will be worth for those players when they reach restricted free agency after year four. However, the value of those qualifying offers can fluctuate depending on whether or not a player has met the “starter criteria.”
Here’s how the starter criteria works: A player who is eligible for restricted free agency is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency. For instance, if a player started 50 games in 2016/17 and 32 in 2017/18, he’d meet the starter criteria, since his average number of starts over the last two seasons is 41.
A player’s ability or inability to meet the starter criteria can affect the value of the qualifying offer he receives as a restricted free agent, as follows:
- A top-14 pick who does not meet the starter criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A player picked between 10th and 30th who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
- A second-round pick or undrafted player who meets the criteria will receive a qualifying offer equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
- For all other RFAs, the standard criteria determine the amounts of their qualifying offers.
Extending a qualifying offer to a player eligible for restricted free agency officially makes that player an RFA, ensuring that his team has the right of first refusal if he signs an offer sheet with another club. It also gives the player the option of signing that one-year QO.
Generally, the value of a restricted free agent’s qualifying offer isn’t hugely important, since very few RFAs accept those offers outright. There are exceptions though. Last offseason, for instance, both players who signed their one-year QOs – Suns center Alex Len and Mavericks center Nerlens Noel – failed to meet the starter criteria heading into restricted free agency, reducing the value of their QOs to approximately $4.2MM (from $6.4MM and $5.85MM, respectively). Had Len and Noel met the starter criteria and been eligible for those larger QOs, their free agencies could have played out differently.
Top-14 picks who failed to meet starter criteria:
With that in mind, let’s check in on how this year’s RFAs-to-be will be impacted by the starter criteria. Listed below are the former top-14 picks on track for restricted free agency who have not met the starter criteria. These players will be eligible for qualifying offers worth $4,333,931.
- Jabari Parker (Bucks)
- Dante Exum (Jazz)
- Nik Stauskas (Nets)
- Noah Vonleh (Bulls)
- Doug McDermott (Mavericks)
- Zach LaVine (Bulls)
No player was hit harder by missing out on the starter criteria than Parker, whose torn ACL made him fall short. If he’d stayed healthy, the former No. 2 overall pick likely would’ve been in line for a qualifying offer worth about $8.851MM. Instead, his QO will be worth less than half of that.
Major injuries also prevented Exum and LaVine from meeting the starter criteria, while Celtics guard Marcus Smart stayed just healthy enough to meet the necessary benchmarks — he totaled 4,013 minutes played over the last two seasons, barely averaging more than 2,000 per year.
First-round picks between 10-30 who met starter criteria:
The players listed below were picked between No. 10 and No. 30 in the 2014 draft and will meet the starter criteria. That will make each of them eligible for a qualifying offer worth $4,749,591.
- Elfrid Payton (Suns)
- Jusuf Nurkic (Trail Blazers)
- Clint Capela (Rockets)
- Kyle Anderson (Spurs)
Anderson is the biggest winner here, with his projected qualifying offer of $3.23MM set to increase by more than $1.5MM. However, Anderson, Capela, and Nurkic shouldn’t have any issue landing long-term deals, making the value of their QOs somewhat irrelevant. I wonder about Payton though — he didn’t exactly finish this season strong in Phoenix and could be a candidate to accept his increased QO.
Rodney Hood, the 23rd overall pick in 2014, can blame injury luck and lineup decisions for missing out on the starter criteria. He started 78 of 119 total games for Utah and Cleveland over the last two seasons, averaging 27.0 minutes per contest during that span. Without health issues, he almost certainly would’ve logged 82+ starts or 4,000+ minutes during those two years.
Second-round picks and UDFAs who met starter criteria:
Only one player falls into this group this year.
- Yogi Ferrell (Mavericks)
Initially signed to a 10-day contract in 2017, Ferrell parlayed that audition into a multiyear deal and has become an integral part of the Mavericks‘ rotation this season. He has appeared in all 81 games for Dallas, averaging 28.1 minutes per contest — that’s good for 2,274 total minutes, boosting his qualifying offer from $1,699,698 to $2,919,204.
The rest of this year’s restricted free agents won’t have their projected qualifying offers impacted by the starter criteria.
Poll: Who Is 2017/18 NBA Rookie Of The Year?
The 2017/18 NBA rookie class has looked deep and impressive this season, with many players from last year’s draft already assuming key roles on their NBA clubs. However, the battle for this season’s Rookie of the Year has essentially been a two-man race for months. With apologies to Jayson Tatum and others, the vote will almost certainly come down to Ben Simmons vs. Donovan Mitchell.
Mitchell, the 13th overall pick in the 2017 draft, has done his part to help Jazz fans forget about Gordon Hayward‘s departure, averaging a team-high 20.5 PPG to go along with 3.7 APG, 3.7 RPG, and 1.5 SPG. After coming off the bench for several games near the start of the season, Mitchell has been a mainstay in Utah’s starting lineup since November, and had been a huge reason why the Jazz hold the No. 4 seed in the West — the team is 42-27 in games Mitchell starts.
While Mitchell’s rookie year has been outstanding, don’t count Simmons among those who will admit to being impressed by the Jazz guard. Asked by ESPN’s Chris Haynes which rookies around the NBA have caught his attention this season, Simmons promptly replied, “None.” The Sixers‘ point guard also didn’t mince words when asked about his own pick for Rookie of the Year.
“Who would I pick? Me, 100 percent,” Simmons told Haynes. “I think I have been playing solid all year. If you look at the numbers, you will see. People who know the game know.”
Simmons’ numbers are certainly worth mentioning. While he hasn’t scored at the same rate as Mitchell, posting 16.0 PPG for the year, 2016’s first overall pick has filled up the stat sheet with 8.2 APG, 8.1 RPG, and 1.7 SPG after missing the entire 2016/17 season. He has also made 54.7% of his shots from the field, though the fact that he has attempted just 11 three-pointers all season helps buoy that mark.
Like Mitchell’s Jazz, Simmons’ Sixers are in position to host a first-round playoff series, potentially as the No. 3 seed. And as good as the two rookies have been, they also both play alongside star centers – Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid – who have arguably been the 2017/18 MVPs for Utah and Philadelphia, respectively. In other words, Mitchell and Simmons have very similar – and virtually equally compelling – cases for being named the 2017/18 Rookie of the Year.
What do you think? Would you pick Mitchell or Simmons as the 2017/18 Rookie of the Year? Is there another candidate that you think has a case to be at the forefront of the discussion? Does the fact that Simmons had an extra year of NBA seasoning affect your pick at all, even though he’s technically eligible for the award?
Vote below in our poll and jump into the comment section to share your thoughts!
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Jazz Sign David Stockton For Rest Of Season
3:51pm: The Jazz have officially signed Stockton, per the NBA’s transactions log.
8:09am: David Stockton‘s second 10-day contract with the Jazz expired overnight, but he won’t be going anywhere, according to Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). League sources tell Charania that Utah intends to sign Stockton to a new contract that covers the rest of the season.
Stockton, the son of former Jazz star John Stockton, has played sparingly for his father’s old team during his 20 days in Utah, averaging 3.3 PPG in 3.0 MPG over the course of three games.
The Jazz are currently looking to secure a top-four seed in the West and then will head into the playoffs next week, so Stockton is unlikely to see his minutes increase in the near future. However, the 26-year-old point guard will be postseason-eligible on his new deal and will serve as an insurance policy in Utah’s backcourt.
Once Stockton officially inks his new deal with the Jazz, the team will have a full NBA roster, with 15 guaranteed contracts.
Raul Neto Has Made Significant Progress From Wrist Fracture
- Former Jazz player Trey Lyles, now with the Nuggets, did not have many kind words about his former team. Jody Genessy of The Deseret News passes along some of Lyles’ comments, made during an appearance on teammate Richard Jefferson‘s Road Trippin’ Podcast. Lyles was critical of head coach Quin Snyder and expressed a general distaste for his tenure in Utah.
- Jazz point guard Raul Neto has made significant progress on his fractured wrist, tweets Tony Jones of the Salt Lake City Tribune. No firm decision has been made, but it’s possible that Neto plays in tomorrow’s game against the Lakers, Jones adds.
Nurse, Vanterpool Top List Of Rising Head Coach Candidates
No NBA head coaches were replaced during the 2017 offseason, but that’s very unlikely to be the case for 2018. Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post and Chris Mannix of Yahoo Sports suggest that as many as 10 or 11 teams could be on the lookout for a new head coach this offseason.
That list of teams includes three teams with interim head coaches – the Suns, Grizzlies, and Bucks – as well as lottery teams like the Knicks, Magic, Pistons, Hornets, and Hawks. Playoff contenders like the Nuggets and Clippers could also consider a change, particularly if they miss out on the postseason.
Not all of those teams will replace their current head coaches, but there should be a good deal of turnover in the NBA’s coaching ranks this spring. That could open up the door for assistant coaches or G League head coaches who haven’t yet had the opportunity to run their own NBA squads to interview for those jobs in the coming weeks.
With that in mind, Mannix spoke to over three dozen “high-ranking team executives,” getting each of those execs to name two assistants they view as viable head coaching candidates. Mannix’s only criteria? The executives polled couldn’t name assistants from their own staffs, and the assistants named couldn’t have any NBA or major-college head coaching experience already.
Here are the top vote-getters in Mannix’s poll, all of whom were mentioned by at least three different executives:
- Nick Nurse (Raptors assistant)
- David Vanterpool (Trail Blazers assistant)
- Igor Kokoskov (Jazz assistant)
- Stephen Silas (Hornets associate head coach)
- Adrian Griffin (Thunder assistant)
- Nate Tibbetts (Trail Blazers assistant)
- Chris Finch (Pelicans assistant)
- Jerry Stackhouse (Raptors 905 head coach)
- Ryan Saunders (Timberwolves assistant)
- Jay Larranaga (Celtics assistant)
Of course, not every team seeking a new head coach in the offseason will be eyeing candidates in this pool. Some clubs will want a candidate with previous head coaching experience, and there should be no shortage of those — Jeff Van Gundy, Mark Jackson, David Blatt, David Fizdale, and Monty Williams are among the veteran coaches who have been linked to various teams already. Other clubs may target a coach from the NCAA pool, such as Villanova’s Jay Wright.
Still, the NBA assistants listed above are viewed around the league as future head coaching candidates, and are the names to keep an eye on if your favorite team is considering a change on its bench.
Nerlens Noel, Thabo Sefolosha Receive Five-Game Suspensions
Mavericks center Nerlens Noel and Jazz forward Thabo Sefolosha have each received five-game suspensions for violating the NBA’s anti-drug program, the league announced today. The bans are for marijuana violations, tweets Tim Bontemps of The Washington Post.
The lottery-bound Mavericks only have five games left in the regular season, so Noel will start serving his suspension immediately and avoid having it carry over to 2018/19. With unrestricted free agency looming for the former lottery pick, it’s possible that Noel has played his last game in Dallas. The suspension will cost him approximately $145K of this season’s salary.
As for Sefolosha, his situation is a little more complicated since he’s expected to miss the rest of this season with a knee injury. The veteran must receive medical clearance before he can begin serving his suspension, so the five-game ban figures to impact his availability at the start of next season.
Sefolosha is under contract for 2018/19, but his $5.25MM salary is non-guaranteed. The Jazz could release him by July 1 and avoid being on the hook for that salary — if they keep him on their roster, they’ll be without him for their first five games in the fall.
Poll: Which Western Contenders Will Miss Playoffs?
Three teams in the Western Conference have clinched playoff berths, with the Rockets, Warriors, and Trail Blazers likely locked into the top three seeds, in that order. However, after those top teams, the race for the conference’s final five postseason spots remains hotly contested.
The Spurs (45-32) are ostensibly in the driver’s seat for the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round, but a late-season slide could still put their playoff spot in jeopardy. San Antonio has back-to-back road games against the Clippers and Lakers on tap this week, followed by home games against Portland and Sacramento, and a regular season finale in New Orleans. While it’s still possible that Kawhi Leonard could return for one or more of those games, the club isn’t counting on that.
While the Thunder (45-33) remain in contention for the No. 4 spot too, they’re also one bad week away from slipping out of the playoff picture, particularly since they hold virtually no tiebreakers against their Western competitors. You can probably pencil OKC in for a win at home vs. Memphis next Wednesday, but before that game, the Thunder will have to deal with the Warriors at home, and the Rockets and Heat on the road.
The Jazz (44-33) have won 27 of their last 34 games, but that hasn’t been enough to pull away from the pack in the West. A home-and-away set against the Lakers this week bodes well, but Utah will also have to host the Clippers and Warriors before finishing the season in Portland. Holding tiebreakers over the Spurs, Pelicans, and Clips could come in handy.
The Timberwolves (44-34) could badly use Jimmy Butler in their lineup down the stretch, and he’s still expected to be back before the end of the season, but his exact return date remains up in the air. Home-and-away games against Denver may ultimately decide Minnesota’s playoff fate, though the Wolves will also face a pair of lottery teams in the Lakers (road) and Grizzlies (home). Minnesota’s tiebreakers over the Thunder, Jazz, Pelicans, and Clippers look big now.
The Pelicans (43-34) have lost four straight games, putting their playoff spot at risk, but those losses came against four very good teams. They’ll have a chance to turn things around this week when they host the Grizzlies and visit the Suns. After that, the schedule gets tough again — the Pelicans close out by visiting the Warriors and Clippers before hosting the Spurs.
If any of those five teams falter, the Nuggets (42-35) and Clippers (41-36) will be ready to take advantage, though neither team has it easy down the stretch. In addition to facing Minnesota twice, the Nuggets also host the Pacers and Trail Blazers. The Clippers have one road game left in Utah, and will host the Spurs, Pelicans, and Lakers. The Nuggets and Clippers will also face one another in L.A. on Saturday.
Got all that? Great. Now, we want to know what you think. How will the season’s final nine days play out? Which two of the top 10 teams in the West will end up missing the playoffs? Vote below in our poll and jump into the comment section below to share your thoughts!
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