With the marked jump in the salary cap this season, expiring contracts aren’t quite what they used to be as trade chips. The shorter contracts that have come about in the past few years thanks to new rules imposed in the 2011 collective bargaining agreement have meant more teams have the opportunity to open cap space each year, which decreases the value of trading for a player in the final year of his contract.
The majority of teams will start next summer under the cap, and many will possess the amount of cap space necessary to sign a maximum-salary free agent. Still, expiring contracts can be effective trade assets under the right circumstances. These players come with little financial risk to the teams acquiring them, given they will be off a team’s books by the time the next free agent signing period commences. The cost in acquiring players in this category is often below their actual value, since they are ostensibly just short-term rentals. Plus, it also allows franchises to see how a pending free agent fits within its system and locker room culture.
Here’s a rundown of each player who has an expiring contract with a salary of greater than $8MM for the 2016/17 campaign:
- Derrick Rose [Knicks] — $21,323,252
- Jeff Green [Magic] — $15,000,000
- Manu Ginobili [Spurs] — $14,000,000
- Serge Ibaka [Magic] — $12,250,000
- Stephen Curry [Warriors] — $12,112,359
- Amir Johnson [Celtics] — $12,000,000
- Jrue Holiday [Pelicans] — $11,286,518
- Andre Iguodala [Warriors] — $11,131,368
- Andrew Bogut [Mavericks] — $11,027,027
- Zach Randolph [Grizzlies] — $10,361,445
- Tyreke Evans [Pelicans] — $10,203,755
- Deron Williams [Mavericks] — $9,000,000
- Taj Gibson [Bulls] — $8,950,000
- Jeff Teague [Pacers] — $8,800,000
- Tiago Splitter [Hawks] — $8,550,000
- Ersan Ilyasova [Thunder] — $8,400,000
- Kevin Garnett [Timberwolves] — $8,000,000
- George Hill [Jazz] — $8,000,000
- Sergio Rodriguez [Sixers] — $8,000,000
Which of the above players, excluding Curry for obvious reasons, is the most valuable trade chip this season? Take to the comments section below to share your thoughts.
Note: The Basketball Insiders salary pages were used in the creation of this post.
Deron Williams
1. Amir Johnson 2. Zach Randolph 3. Ersan Ilyasova
Well assumming these teams will only trade these guys if they are losing, Id say Tyreke Evans, Jeff Green, Taj Gibson.
To me this shows the new state of the NBA. Unlike past seasons, I could easily see none of these guys getting dealt. That said, the Celtics and the Pelicans can do some real damage on the trade market. I could also see Sergio Rodriguez getting moved if he produces.
Simple matter of deduction.
1. Absolutely zero percent chance the following players are traded:
Manu Ginobili
Kevin Garnett
Stephen Curry
Andre Iguodala
2. Very, very small chance these players are traded:
Derrick Rose (If he is playing well Knocks will resign him to a contract, if he is not playing well, who would want him?)
Zach Randolph (probably should be in the first group – No chance. Memphis loves him)
Jrue Holiday (Orleans season would have to be a disaster by Feb)
3. Pretty low chance of being traded:
George Hill – Jazz got him to start and teach Exum
Serge Ibaka – In my opinion Orlando wants him long term
Jeff Teague – No real replacement if he is traded and the Pacers wanted his style of play. Plus not certain Larry the legend believes in “in season trades”.
4. That leaves these 9 that I put in order of highest value to lowest. Though all are dependent upon the situation. Many of these would simply be salary filler in a trade.
Andrew Bogut – I wonder if Milwaukee would trade Monroe for him to get him back?
Tyreke Evans – Not certain who needs a Point SF. Maybe LA Clippers to run the second unit?
Deron Williams – Glut of PGs in the league. He will want to start. His defense is a liability 90% of time.
Taj Gibson – Very solid traditional rotation PF, but where is the market? 2 years too late on trading him.
Jeff Green – No clue why Orlando paid so much
Amir Johnson – generally same as T. Gibson. Best trade value is the size of the contract that will help Boston match salaries going after someone else.
Sergio Rodriguez – I think Philly is trying to get out of the reputation that they sign players to trade them.
Ersan Ilyasova – At one point was the proto stretch 4, still has some on court value but best value is as a contract matcher if Thunder go after someone in a trade.
Tiago Splitter – Rotation big, nothing more. Hawks would have to throw in Draft picks
Almost want to say Ibaka, just because I can’t see many of these guys fetching an Oladipo type, a rotation player, and a top 15 first rounder (forget exactly what Sabonis was).