Poll: Over/Under On Warriors’ 2017/18 Win Total
Heading into the 2016/17 season, Las Vegas sportsbooks set the over/under for the Warriors’ win total at 66.5. Even for a team coming off a record-breaking 73-9 campaign, that looked like an incredibly high bar to clear. But the Warriors did clear it, posting a 67-15 regular season record before going 16-1 in the postseason.
A year later, expectations in Vegas are even higher for the Warriors. As Ben Fawkes of ESPN.com details, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook unveiled its over/under figures for all 30 NBA teams, and Golden State leads the way at an incredible 67.5 wins.
It’s a staggering number, and one that would become nearly impossible to achieve if one or two of the Warriors’ key players goes down with an injury. Still, given what we’ve seen from the team over the last two years, it makes sense — particularly since the general consensus is that Golden State had one of the most successful summers of any NBA team.
The Warriors didn’t lose any core players from last year’s championship roster, with Ian Clark, Matt Barnes, and James Michael McAdoo the only notable departures. To fill the openings on the roster, the Dubs went out and landed Nick Young and Omri Casspi, who may end up being upgrades.
What do you think? Can this year’s version of the Warriors beat their over-under odds again and win 68 or more games? Or would you bet the under on 67.5? Vote below in our poll and jump into the comment section to share your two cents.
How many games will the Warriors win in 2017/18?
-
Over 67.5 54% (450)
-
Under 67.5 46% (390)
Total votes: 840
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Deadline Looms For Teams To Stretch 2017/18 Salary
Thursday, August 31 represents the deadline for teams to exercise the stretch provision on 2017/18 salary, meaning clubs have just over 24 more hours to waive players whose ’17/18 salaries they’re hoping to stretch.
The stretch provision is a CBA rule that allows teams to stretch a waived player’s remaining guaranteed salary across multiple seasons. From July 1 to August 31, the rule dictates that a team can pay out the player’s salary over twice the number of years remaining on his contract, plus one. For instance, a contract with three years left on it could be stretched out over seven years. After August 31, only future years on the contract can be stretched in that manner — so for that three-year contract, the current-season salary would stay as is, while the remaining two seasons could be stretched across five years.
As a point of reference, here’s what Andrew Nicholson‘s contract with the Trail Blazers looks like in its current form, along with the new salary figures based on that deal being stretched before or after August 31:
| Year | Current contract | Stretched by August 31 | Stretched after August 31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 | $6,362,998 | $2,844,429 | $6,362,998 |
| 2018/19 | $6,637,002 | $2,844,429 | $2,709,601 |
| 2019/20 | $6,911,007 | $2,844,429 | $2,709,602 |
| 2020/21 | – | $2,844,430 | $2,709,602 |
| 2021/22 | – | $2,844,430 | $2,709,602 |
| 2022/23 | – | $2,844,430 | $2,709,602 |
| 2023/24 | – | $2,844,430 |
As our chart shows, if the Blazers wait until September to waive and stretch Nicholson, they would take on a lower annual cap hit after 2017/18 and those cap charges would end a year earlier. However, Portland is widely expected to stretch Nicholson by August 31 in order to reduce his current-year cap hit. The Blazers are currently several million dollars into tax territory, and reducing Nicholson’s 2017/18 cap charge by $3.5MM+ would significantly reduce the club’s projected tax bill, even if it hurts Portland a little more in future seasons.
While Nicholson is a good bet to be waived this week (update: he has been waived), we shouldn’t necessarily expect a flurry of action by Thursday, since most teams aren’t in a situation like the Blazers. Still, we could see a move from clubs that have an expendable player and want to either reduce their tax bill or create more breathing room below the cap or tax line.
The Bucks look like another prime candidate to make a move by Thursday. It doesn’t appear that Spencer Hawes will be a major part of the club’s plans for 2017/18, and Milwaukee is currently slightly over the tax line. Waiving Hawes and stretching the final year of his contract (worth $6,021,175) across the next three years would get the Bucks out of tax territory and would create a little more flexibility to add a player or two, if needed.
Nicholson and Hawes were two of the five players who I identified earlier this month as candidates to be waived and stretched by August 31, and I think they’re easily the strongest candidates on that list. Stay tuned through Thursday to see if they’re cut, and to find out if other players hit the waiver wire before the August 31 deadline.
Lowe’s Latest: Celtics, Irving, Hayward, Butler
In our recap earlier today of where things stand on the Kyrie Irving front, we passed along several items of interest from ESPN’s Zach Lowe, who identified a number of potential trade partners for the Cavaliers if their deal with the Celtics falls through. Lowe also cited sources who said that there’s at least a slight chance Isaiah Thomas could miss the entire 2017/18 season if his recovery doesn’t progress as smoothly as hoped.
Lowe’s in-depth piece on the Irving situation included a few more noteworthy details, which we’ll pass along here:
- Timing played a major part in the Celtics‘ decision to go hard after Irving, rather than Paul George or Jimmy Butler. As Lowe notes, the team wanted to add two star players this summer, but wanted to make sure it could land Gordon Hayward in free agency before giving up key assets for that second star. Because the Bulls and Pacers agreed in June to trade their stars, they were no longer options for Boston, post-Hayward.
- Irving’s age was also a key consideration for the Celtics, says Lowe. With Boston poised to build around young pieces like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the fact that Irving is two years younger than either George or Butler was important, and allows the C’s to extend their window of contention.
- The Celtics also had some concerns about how Butler and Hayward might mesh – on and off the court – if they were to acquire both players, sources tell Lowe.
- Even if the Celtics have to include a little more in the Irving deal to get it done, they still may be the most well-stocked team in the league in terms of trade assets, according to Lowe, who notes that could become important if the Pelicans eventually make Anthony Davis available. There’s no indication at this point that New Orleans will do so, but the Celtics’ eyes “are very much trained on” Davis, says Lowe.
- According to Lowe, if Irving officially becomes a Celtic, he could play a part in helping to recruit an additional superstar, since the league’s stars respect Irving’s “ballsy showman’s game.” Celtics president Danny Ainge likes Irving more than many of his peers around the NBA for some of the same reasons, Lowe adds.
NBA Draft Rights Held: Southeast Division
When top college prospects like Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball are drafted, there’s virtually no doubt that their next step will involve signing an NBA contract. However, that’s not the case for every player who is selected in the NBA draft, particularly for international prospects and second-round picks.
When an NBA team uses a draft pick on a player, it gains his NBA rights, but that doesn’t mean the player will sign an NBA contract right away. International prospects will often remain with their professional team overseas for at least one more year to develop their game further, becoming “draft-and-stash” prospects. Nikola Mirotic, Dario Saric, and Bogdan Bogdanovic are among the more notable players to fit this bill in recent years.
However, draft-and-stash players can be former NCAA standouts too. Sometimes a college prospect selected with a late second round pick will end up playing overseas or in the G League for a year or two if there’s no space available on his NBA team’s 15-man roster.
While these players sometimes make their way to their NBA teams, others never do. Many clubs around the NBA currently hold the rights to international players who have remained overseas for their entire professional careers and are no longer viewed as top prospects. Those players may never come stateside, but there’s often no reason for NBA teams to renounce their rights — those rights can sometimes be used as placeholders in trades.
For instance, earlier this summer, the Pacers and Raptors agreed to a trade that sent Cory Joseph to Indiana. Toronto was happy to move Joseph’s salary and didn’t necessarily need anything in return, but the Pacers had to send something in the deal. Rather than including an NBA player or a draft pick, Indiana sent Toronto the draft rights to Emir Preldzic, the 57th overall pick in the 2009 draft.
Preldzic is currently playing for Galatasaray in Turkey, and at this point appears unlikely to ever come to the NBA, but his draft rights have been a useful trade chip over the years — the Pacers/Raptors swap represented the fourth time since 2010 that Preldzic’s NBA rights have been included in a trade.
This week, we’re taking a closer look at the players whose draft rights NBA teams currently hold, sorting them by division. These players may eventually arrive in America and join their respective NBA teams, but many will end up like Preldzic, plying their trade overseas and having their draft rights used as pawns in NBA trades.
Here’s a breakdown of the draft rights held by Southeast teams:
Atlanta Hawks
- Augusto Binelli, C (1986; No. 40): Retired.
- Alain Digbeu, F (1997; No. 49): Retired.
- Marcus Eriksson, G/F (2015; No. 50): Playing in Spain.
- Isaia Cordinier, G (2016; No. 44): Playing in France.
- Alpha Kaba, C (2017; No. 60): Playing in France.
Charlotte Hornets
- None
Miami Heat
- George Banks, F (1995; No. 46): Retired.
- Robert Duenas, C (1997; No. 57): Retired.
Orlando Magic
- Rashard Griffith, C (1995; No. 38): Retired.
- Remon van de Hare, C (2003; No. 52): Retired.
- Fran Vazquez, C (2005; No. 11): Playing in Spain.
- Janis Timma, F (2013; No. 60): Playing in Spain.
- Tyler Harvey, G (2015; No. 51): Playing in France.
Washington Wizards
- Aaron White, F (2015; No. 49): Playing in Lithuania.
Previously:
Information from Mark Porcaro and Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post.
Kyler’s Latest: Parker, Embiid, A. Gordon, Hood
Andrew Wiggins‘ case for a contract extension has received most of the attention so far this summer, but Wiggins is just one of 21 players heading into the final year of their respective rookie contracts who are eligible for rookie scale extensions this offseason.
In his latest piece for Basketball Insiders, Steve Kyler takes a closer look at several of those extension-eligible players, so let’s dive in and round up the highlights…
- There’s a sense that the Bucks are open to getting something done this offseason with Jabari Parker, since they’re confident he’ll make a full recovery from his latest ACL tear, sources tell Kyler. However, Milwaukee would almost certainly ask Parker to accept a team-friendly rate, so he’s more likely to play out his final year and seek out a new deal next summer as a restricted free agent.
- There’s a “growing sense” that the Sixers will extend Joel Embiid, but it remains to be seen whether he’ll accept an offer worth less than the max, writes Kyler. A deal structured like Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s four-year, $100MM extension might make sense if Embiid doesn’t want to push hard for a max contract.
- With a new management team in place in Orlando, the Magic are expected to take a wait-and-see approach to a new deal for Aaron Gordon, unless he’s willing to sign at a discounted rate for the sake of long-term security, says Kyler.
- If the Celtics lock up Marcus Smart to a long-term deal, it’s more likely to happen in 2018 than this offseason, per Kyler.
- With the Lakers looking to maximize their 2018 cap room, Julius Randle has a better chance to be traded at some point before February’s deadline than he does to be extended before the season, according to Kyler.
- Sources tell Kyler that Rodney Hood and his camp are “very open” to negotiating an extension with the Jazz. The Basketball Insiders scribe estimates that something in the Evan Turner range (four years, $70MM) might be an appropriate price point for Hood.
Where Things Stand On Kyrie Irving Blockbuster
It has been eight days since both the Celtics and Cavaliers announced the completion of a trade that sent Kyrie Irving to Boston in exchange for Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Ante Zizic, and the Nets’ 2018 first-round pick. However, more than a week later, we still can’t classify the deal as “completed.”
As first reported last Friday by ESPN, the Cavaliers expressed concern after their own doctors conducted a physical exam on Thomas’ injured hip. That concern has pushed the Cavaliers to re-engage the Celtics about acquiring further compensation in the blockbuster deal. Although it took a few days for the two sides to make contact again, that reportedly happened on Tuesday.
Here’s a breakdown of what we know about the situation, and when we can expect resolution:
Sixers Sign James Blackmon Jr.
AUGUST 30: More than two months after the Sixers’ agreement with Blackmon was reported, the Sixers have confirmed the deal in a press release, announcing that the undrafted rookie will come to camp with the team.
As Keith Pompey of The Philadelphia Inquirer notes (via Twitter), Blackmon has a partial guarantee, but is a good bet to start the season in the G League as an affiliate player with the Delaware 87ers.
JUNE 22: Indiana guard James Blackmon Jr. has agreed to an undrafted free agent contract with the Sixers, tweets Shams Charania of The Vertical.
Blackmon put up 17.0 points and 4.8 rebounds during his junior year with the Hoosiers. He has a reputation as an excellent shooter, but at 6’3″ he may be undersized to play his natural position of shooting guard in the NBA.
Blackmon was ranked 84th in the nation on Chad Ford’s list of the top 100 prospects and 83rd by Draft Express.
Sixers Sign James McAdoo To Two-Way Deal
AUGUST 30: The Sixers have made it official, announcing in a press release that they’ve signed McAdoo to the first two-way contract in franchise history.
AUGUST 26: The Sixers have agreed to a two-way deal with two-time NBA champion James McAdoo, as first reported by Michael Scotto of Basketball Insiders (Twitter Link). Tandem, McAdoo’s agency confirmed the signing.
McAdoo, 25, appeared in a career-high 52 games (two starts) with the Warriors last season but posted just 2.8 PPG and 1.8 RPG in just below nine minutes per game. The former North Carolina product went undrafted in the 2014 NBA Draft but latched on with Golden State in the summer league that season. Since then, McAdoo has bounced around between the NBA and the G-League and been a piece of the bench for a powerhouse Warriors team.
The two-way deal will enable Philadelphia to rotate McAdoo around the NBA and G-League but uncertain health surrounding Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons may allow him to secure playing time.
Southwest Notes: Noel, Withey, Spurs, Rockets
After months of uncertainty, Nerlens Noel agreed to a one-year, $4.1MM qualifying offer with the Mavericks, returning to the team that acquired him at the trade deadline last season. The former first round pick (sixth overall) from the 2013 NBA Draft has seen his stock derailed due to numerous injuries but his return provides Dallas with stability at center, Earl K. Sneed of NBA.com writes.
Noel, still just 23 years old, posted 8.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.0 SPG and 1.1 BPG in 22 games with Mavericks after the deal. While a return was far from certain for most of the offseason, Noel can now focus on strengthening the team’s core and building on the experiences that made Dallas an appealing destination for him.
“You know, I learned a lot,” Noel said. “I met a lot of great people and I started a lot of great relationships. And being around all the vets they have around here, it’s definitely something I took in with all the knowledge and all the small habits that help you succeed in this league for the duration of time that you’re in it. It’s been great. I love Dallas. You know, in my short time here, I’ve really enjoyed it. I think it’s been a great time. And with the pieces that we have and the opportunities that will be seen in the near future, I think there’s a lot to be excited for.”
Read below for additional news around the Southwest Division:
- In addition to Noel, the Mavericks have shored up their depth at center by signing 27-year-old Jeff Withey to a two-year deal, according to Brad Townsend of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link). Withey, 27, appeared in 102 games off the bench for the Jazz the last two seasons.
- With Noel’s return confirmed, Dallas Sports Day has compiled a feature highlighting 10 important facts about the center’s life and career.
- Jorge Sierra of Hoops Hype previews the Spurs‘ 2017/18 as he examines the team’s additions, subtractions, incumbents, and salaries.
- Rockets owners Leslie Alexander has increased his donation to aid the recovery from Hurricane Harvey to $10MM, Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle writes.
Knicks Notes: Durant, Ownership, Offseason Recap
Warriors‘ superstar Kevin Durant has explicitly stated he would never play for the Knicks but it does not mean he will not offer the franchise advice. Speaking with The Ringer’s Bill Simmons, Durant criticized the Knicks’ front office and lack of leadership from the top of the organization all the way down to the on-court product.
“Everything starts at the top, you have bad leadership, and it’s just going to trickle down to everybody else,” Durant said (via New York Post). “When a GM wants to make a decision, he has to talk to the owner and he’s nowhere to be found and he don’‘t care then you kind of stuck and that causes tension.”
The Knicks’ front office drama with Phil Jackson, James Dolan, and even the current trade saga with Carmelo Anthony has been ridiculed for a long time. Durant, who joined the Warriors in free agency last year, never seriously considered the Knicks and helped deliver the Warriors’ second title in the last three seasons. While Durant later went on to praise New York City and playing in Madison Square Garden, the former MVP will not be a popular face when the team heads to New York next season.
Read about other news tidbits surrounding the Knicks:
- The daughter of Bucks co-owner Wes Edens, Mallory Edens, recently told TMZ that she wants to purchase the Knicks. Dolan has not expressed any public desire to sell the team but Edens would want first dibs on the chance to buy the team, citing lack of women in top positions in the NBA.
- Shaun Powell of NBA.com recapped the Knicks team based on last year’s performance, expectations for 2017/18 and more.
