Month: September 2018

Points of comparison:

Among recent recipients of rookie scale extensions, Dennis Schroder may be the best point of comparison for Russell. Schroder, who signed a four-year, $62MM extension with the Hawks during the 2016 offseason, had similar per-minute numbers to Russell in their respective third NBA seasons. Schroder also faced questions about his shooting ability and his locker-room fit.

The Hawks’ investment in Schroder initially looked like a good one, as he enjoyed his best year after signing his new deal, and kept improving once he became the focal point of the team’s offense. However, Atlanta’s new front office group, which wasn’t responsible for drafting or extending Schroder, wasn’t particularly attached to him, and his off-court issues became a problem when he was arrested last year on a battery charge. The Hawks dumped his contract to the Thunder in a trade this summer.

An extension for Russell won’t necessarily play out like Schroder’s did, of course, but it’s a case that the Nets should keep in mind as they weigh whether or not to make a long-term commitment to their young guard.

Cap outlook:

The Nets project to open up a big chunk of cap room in 2019, with virtually no guaranteed money on their books by the 2020/21 season.

At first glance, it may seem logical to avoid extending Russell until the team gets a sense of what it can do with its ’19 cap space, but if Nets management is confident that the former No. 2 pick is a long-term building block, it actually might make sense to sign him sooner rather than later.

Because he was such a high draft pick, Russell would have a pricey cap hold as a restricted free agent next summer — he’d count for more than $21MM against the Nets’ cap until the team re-signs or renounces him. If Brooklyn extends him, his starting salary would almost certainly be less than that, creating extra room to spend on outside free agents.

Of course, if the Nets aren’t yet convinced whether Russell is a part of their future, waiting on a new deal is the right move. Renouncing him next summer would create an extra $21MM in cap room which could be used on another signing or trade.

Conclusion:

Although the Nets traded for Russell last offseason believing that he was capable of becoming an important piece in their rebuilding process, his underwhelming 2017/18 performance may give Sean Marks and company pause.

Having finally regained control of their own first-round draft picks and cleared their cap of unwanted contracts, the Nets will be extra careful not to make any major missteps during this key stage of their rebuild. In the case of Russell, locking him up to a long-term deal now, before he enjoys a true breakout season, could pay off in a big way down the road. But the risk probably isn’t worth the potential reward.

With few salary commitments on their cap beyond this season, the Nets can afford to be patient with Russell and evaluate him further in 2018/19. If he shows this season that he’s a keeper, Brooklyn will still have the right of first refusal when he reaches restricted free agency and probably won’t mind paying a little extra at that point to re-sign him.

Will Russell get extended by October 15?
Our prediction: No.
Our estimate: RFA in 2019.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.