One Key Question Surrounding Kris Dunn’s Free Agency
Bulls guard Kris Dunn won’t be one of this offseason’s marquee free agents, and a possible depressed market as a result of the coronavirus pandemic may limit his earning potential. However, the former first-round pick should be an intriguing option for teams looking to improve their backcourt defense.
Dunn was Chicago’s best perimeter defender in 2019/20 making a legit case for an All-Defense nod as he led all qualified players with 2.9 steals per 36 minutes. He also wasn’t a major offensive liability, reducing his turnovers to 1.3 per game and posting a career-best .444 FG% as his usage rate declined.
However, there’s one key question looming over Dunn’s free agency that may dictate how his market plays out and what sort of deal he ends up signing. As a 2016 first-round pick, he’s eligible for restricted free agency this offseason, but the Bulls will have to tender him a qualifying offer in order to make him restricted, and the amount of that QO remains up in the air.
[RELATED: Hoops Rumors Glossary: Qualifying Offers]
The amount of Dunn’s qualifying offer – which is essentially a one-year contract offer that gives the Bulls the right of first refusal – hinges on whether or not he has met the starter criteria. If he has met the starter criteria, his QO will be worth $7,091,457. If he falls short, the value of the QO dips to $4,642,800.
We provide more details on the starter criteria in our glossary entry on the subject, but in Dunn’s case, it’s important to know that he would have met the starter criteria if he had started a total of 82 games over the last two seasons (an average of 41 per season). After starting 44 games in 2018/19, Dunn started just 32 games this year, for a total of 76.
However, the Bulls will only end up playing a total of 65 regular season games in 2019/20 as a result of the coronavirus pandemic and the suspension of the season. Dunn’s camp could argue that his 32 starts should be prorated over a full 82-game schedule — in that case, he’d be credited for a total of 40 starts, increasing his two-year total to 84 and meeting the starter criteria.
The Bulls, on the other hand, could rightly argue that a knee injury which sidelined Dunn before the season was suspended was expected to keep him out of action for the rest of the club’s season if it had ended on April 15, as initially expected. In other words, there would have been no way for him to get those last few starts he was “projected” for.
It’s a tricky situation, and I’m not sure how the NBA will handle it. As ESPN’s Bobby Marks wrote recently, requirements for certain incentives and bonuses are expected to be prorated to account for the shortened season to make things fair to players who fell just short of those incentives and would’ve met them given a full 82 games. But the starter criteria is a separate issue, and there are reasonable arguments on both sides — especially since the Bulls may not have started Dunn again even if he’d been able to return from his injury.
For a restricted free agent like Brandon Ingram, who most certainly won’t accept his qualifying offer, this would be a non-issue. But for the Bulls and Dunn, the difference between a $4.6MM qualifying offer and one worth $7.1MM is significant, especially since there’s not expected to be a ton of league-wide money available for free agents this offseason.
Would the Bulls still tender Dunn a qualifying offer if the price is $7.1MM? If not, the 26-year-old would become an unrestricted free agent. Would Dunn accept a $7.1MM qualifying offer if it’s on the table? I don’t think that’s out of the question, considering it’s not far off from a mid-level salary. Conversely, I think the Bulls would be far more inclined to offer a $4.6MM QO, while Dunn would be less likely to accept it.
It’s not unreasonable to believe that a $2.5MM difference in potential qualifying offers could reshape what Dunn’s free agency looks like, so it’ll be fascinating to see how the NBA and NBPA determine that price point.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Restart Notes: Medical Reviews, Announcers, More
The NBA is expected to ask team personnel members to submit their personal medical histories to a panel of physicians in advance of this summer’s resumption in Orlando, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski and Zach Lowe.
As Wojnarowski and Lowe explain, that panel would assess each individual’s level of risk for serious health complications due to the coronavirus. If certain individuals are deemed to be “more vulnerable to severe coronavirus outcomes,” the panel may recommend that they don’t travel to Orlando.
Wojnarowski and Lowe caution that the NBA and its panel likely won’t have the authority to prohibit anyone outright from participating in the resumption of the season in Orlando based on potential health risks. Legal experts tell ESPN that the league also wouldn’t be able to exclude anyone based solely on that person’s age, including head coaches Gregg Popovich (Spurs), Mike D’Antoni (Rockets), and Alvin Gentry (Pelicans), all of whom are at least 65 years old.
Still, as Woj and Lowe write, it’s possible that the NBA’s medical review process could result in a recommendation that the league and an individual’s team strongly encourages them to follow. The NBA also could place certain limitations on those deemed to be at higher risk, a possibility that is causing some “anxiety” among teams, sources tell ESPN.
As we wait to see what measures the league takes in an attempt to keep its players, coaches, and other staffers as safe as possible, let’s round up a few more notes on the NBA’s restart…
- It sounds like play-to-play announcers and color commentators will call games remotely when play resumes this summer. TNT’s Kevin Harlan said as much during a SiriusXM NBA Radio interview, as Richard Deitsch of The Athletic relays. “What I’ve heard from the folks at TNT is we will be in the studios in Atlanta and they will set up as close to possible a broadcast table like we would have courtside,” Harlan said. “We will have, I’m assuming, crowd noise pumped into our headsets. I think for the viewer, I don’t think it’s going to seem dramatically different.” Harlan added that it’s possible broadcasters could be brought to Orlando late in the postseason.
- Appearing on ESPN’s First Take (video link), Brian Windhorst describes some of the challenges that players will face living in the Orlando bubble and explores how drug testing will work.
- Although all eight teams not invited to Orlando this summer agree that they’d like to be able to conduct some form of offseason activities with their players, those teams aren’t necessarily in lockstep about what that should look like, and there are plenty of logistical hurdles to work through, writes Mark Medina of USA Today.
Celtics Notes: Tatum, Brown, Summer, Health
Jayson Tatum will become eligible for a rookie scale extension during the 2020 offseason and – as one report recently indicated – it’s a safe bet that the Celtics will put a long-term, maximum-salary contract offer on the table at that point.
Alex Kennedy of HoopsHype examined the issue, speaking to current and former NBA team executives about Tatum’s contract situation, and got similar feedback. Current ESPN analyst and former Nets executive Bobby Marks told Kennedy that a max deal for Tatum is a “no-brainer,” though he did present one scenario in which the young forward might decide to pass on such an offer later this year.
“The only reason that Tatum wouldn’t sign an extension is because there’s uncertainty as far as what that 2021 salary cap is going to be at, and his salary would be based on a percentage of the cap,” Marks said. “That’d be the only reason why you’d want to play it out. You’d do a one-year deal in 2021 and then, hopefully, the cap goes back up in 2022. That would really be the only reason why.”
Here’s more on the Celtics:
- Jaylen Brown, who signed a long-term extension in 2019 that will go into effect for the 2020/21 season, received high praise from Celtics owner Wyc Grousbeck this week. Speaking to WBZ-TV’s Dan Roche, Grousbeck praised Brown for his character and social awareness. “Since day one when I met Jaylen, back in (2015), it was so obvious that he’s just special – a special person with special character,” Grousbeck said, per Justin Leger of NBC Sports Boston. “He has educated me, to be perfectly honest. … He is a very, very good person with a very good conscience.”
- Using players’ home/road splits as a guide, Chris Forsberg of NBC Sports Boston speculates about which Celtics will be best suited for playing games at a neutral site in the Orlando “bubble” this summer.
- After dealing with a series of injuries throughout the 2019/20 season, the Celtics should benefit from being fully healthy when play resumes this summer, though they won’t have a ton of time to reestablish cohesion and chemistry, writes Mark Murphy of The Boston Herald.
Kerr, Nurse, Others Unsure About 2021 Olympic Plans
As the NBA works toward finalizing its rest-of-season schedule for 2019/20 and establishing a new calendar for the 2020/21 league year, one key issue to consider will be whether next season’s schedule overlaps with the Tokyo Olympics. The Tokyo games have been postponed to 2021 and are now set to begin on July 23, which could coincide with the late stages of the NBA’s ’21 postseason.
Avoiding that overlap will likely be a priority for the NBA. Besides the fact that the league won’t want its Finals competing with the Olympics for viewers, there are many NBA players and coaches who expect to participate in the Tokyo Olympics — or in the qualifying tournaments tentatively scheduled to begin on June 29, 2021.
One of those coaches is Steve Kerr of the Warriors, who is still on track to be an assistant on Gregg Popovich‘s Team USA staff. However, as Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press writes, Kerr remains in the dark on how next summer’s schedule will work and whether or not certain NBA personnel will still be involved in the Tokyo games.
“Believe it or not, I haven’t had a single conversation with Pop about that,” Kerr said. “And the reason is because we don’t know. We’ve been talking almost daily now for the last couple of weeks and before that we were speaking once every few weeks. So, we haven’t even had a single conversation because there’s nothing to report.”
Raptors head coach Nick Nurse, who is set to coach a Canadian team vying for an Olympic spot in a qualifying tournament next June, was equally uncertain about how things will play out, Reynolds notes.
“It’s complicated, is my best thought,” Nurse said. “I just don’t know enough to tell you what next season is going to look like. I don’t know. When’s it going to start? I think they’re talking about pushing it back, but I don’t know if they’re going to play games closer together. I don’t think so, that’s kind of a thing that everybody’s been happy that they continue to spread them out and lessen the back-to-backs and all those things.
“But if they do that, then it’s probably going to run into the Olympics, or really close to it, right? Lots of things that I don’t have a crystal ball on.”
[RELATED: Condensed Schedule Possible For 2020/21 Season]
If the NBA can finish its 2020/21 regular season sometime in May, that would give teams and coaches on non-playoff teams time to convene for camps, qualifying tournaments, and the Olympics themselves. But there’s no guarantee that those options will be available to NBA playoff teams, even if the Finals are scheduled to end before July 23.
For instance, if the Raptors and Nuggets make deep playoff runs, Team Canada may not have Nurse or Jamal Murray available for that qualifying tournament in late June. Nikola Jokic also might not get a chance to play for Serbia if Denver is still alive when those qualifying tournaments begin.
For now, the NBA is focused on how to safely complete its 2019/20 season, but the Olympics represent just one of many obstacles that the league will have to sort out once it shifts its attention to future plans.
Hawks Notes: Offseason, Depth, Capela, Draft, Cap
The Hawks are among the teams pushing the NBA to come up with a plan to ensure that the eight clubs not invited to Orlando this summer get some sort of offseason alternative to keep their players active and at their facility. Speaking on Tuesday to reporters, including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, general manager Travis Schlenk stressed that having those players around for practices, scrimmages, and possibly exhibition games is especially important for a young team like Atlanta.
“One of the most important things for our guys is to continue to play,” Schlenk said. “Just think about last year. De’Andre Hunter, in Summer League, only played about a game-and-a-half before he got hurt. Now he was able to get a ton of minutes, which was great, but Cam (Reddish) was on a minutes restriction for the first half of the season and didn’t play in Summer League. We all saw the growth he had when he was able to play.
“Now if we go another summer where those guys aren’t on the court and able to play — same with Bruno (Fernando) — he didn’t get the minutes those other guys had. Summer League obviously isn’t going to happen this year. All of those things are important to our young guys as they continue to get better.”
As Kirschner observes, even after the NBA determines what to do with its eight non-Orlando teams, the Hawks may not get the opportunity to take a closer look at certain players they’d like to evaluate. Skal Labissiere, for instance, was acquired at the trade deadline but didn’t suit up for Atlanta due to a knee injury. According to Kirschner, Schlenk said on Tuesday that Labissiere has ramped up his workouts and and probably would have been able to play if the Hawks had been part of a resumed season.
However, with the former first-round pick facing potential restricted free agency this offseason, it probably wouldn’t make sense for him – and other FAs-to-be – to risk injury by participating in offseason scrimmages before signing a new contract.
Here’s more on the Hawks:
- As relayed by Kirschner and Sarah K. Spencer of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link), Schlenk said the club’s top priority this offseason will be adding depth. Schlenk specifically cited the wing and power forward as positions the Hawks will look to fortify. Securing a reliable backup point guard will also be important, per Schlenk, who noted that Jeff Teague is one option for that spot.
- Schlenk provided a positive update on Clint Capela‘s health, according to Spencer (Twitter link): “His foot’s feeling fine. He’s got his strength back. If we’re able to have some sort of competition this summer, whether it’s official or unofficial scrimmages, it would be great to get him on the court with our guys and just start that process.” Capela was acquired in a four-team deadline deal, but has yet to make his debut as a Hawk.
- According to Schlenk (via Kirschner), the Hawks have yet to interview any potential top-10 picks in this year’s draft class, but have talked to some prospects projected to be late first-round selections or second-rounders.
- The Hawks will likely have the most cap room of any NBA team this offseason, and Schlenk has the green light to spend, but he wants to make sure the club does so responsibly. “I honestly believe the worst thing that teams can do is when they have the money and owners or people in my position feel the pressure to go out and spend it,” Schlenk said, per Kirschner. “You give out a long, big contract, and you guys have probably heard me say this, but those mistakes can really hamper your franchise. When you give out those long, big contracts, you need to make sure they’re the right guys.”
Jacque Vaughn Has Legit Chance To Be Nets’ Long-Term Coach
After taking over as the interim coach of the Nets earlier this season, Jacque Vaughn has a “legitimate” chance to keep the gig beyond this season, as Shams Charania of The Athletic explained on the Load Management podcast (hat tip to NetsDaily).
“This is a guy that comes from the Spurs background, has the same pedigree as (Nets general manager) Sean Marks,” Charania said on the podcast. “As far as I know, he does a good job at working with players, building that relationship.”
Marks and Vaughn won championships playing for the Spurs in 2005 and 2007, respectively, though they didn’t overlap in San Antonio as players. Vaughn was later in the organization as a scout while Marks was an assistant GM.
Kenny Atkinson was ousted in March and his offense was among the reasons why.
“There were a few things,” Charania added. “Let’s start early in training camp. The offense he still wanted to go with was something that didn’t vibe with his best players, from Kyrie Irving to Kevin Durant to Spencer Dinwiddie on … and so forth … which was a free for all offense. It wasn’t like a set regime, a set style. He still wanted to play the way they were kind of playing with D’Angelo Russell. And I don’t think guys went with that.”
It’s not exactly clear what kind of plans Vaughn has for the offense, as the 45-year-old coach only had two games to showcase his leadership skills. Following Atkinson’s dismissal, Brooklyn went 2-0 before the league suspended its season. Vaughn will get at least eight more games to showcase his ability when the Nets head to Orlando at the end of July.
Western Notes: D’Antoni, Jazz, Doncic, Thunder
Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni, who has traditionally played a short rotation in meaningful games, sounds like he’s going to experiment with playing more guys once the NBA returns from hiatus.
“With (GM) Daryl (Morey) and data, with how we think gives us the best chance to win, it probably comes down to nine guys. Now, who those nine are they could change, and maybe early we experiment, practice and watch,” D’Antoni tells Kelly Iko of The Athletic.
D’Antoni acknowledged that many of the players won’t be in peak regular-season form, adding that “it’s something that you have to play through.”
Here’s more from the Western Conference:
- Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert have had numerous conversations since the pair tested positive for COVID-19 and team sources are “adamant” that the two will be able to coexist without issue, Tim MacMahon writes in a collaborate piece with other writers on ESPN.com. Jazz GM Dennis Lindsay previously said that the two players were ready to put it behind them.
- The time off has allowed Luka Doncic‘s thumb, wrist and ankles to heal and while there were rumors that he gained some weight during the hiatus, sources tell MacMahon (same piece) that the Mavericks star has been working out diligently in Slovenia.
- The Thunder‘s biggest concern coming back from the hiatus could be their chemistry, ESPN’s Royce Young contends in the same piece. OKC compiled a 34-13 record since Thanksgiving, which was second in the league over that span. However, the club needed the first month of the season to get its three-guard lineup in sync.
Raptors Still Figuring Out Border Logistics For Summer Camp
The tentative schedule the NBA has proposed for its return to play this summer would see players report to their teams’ respective markets within the next couple weeks, with training camps reportedly getting underway around the end of June and then resuming after teams travel to Orlando around July 7-9.
For the Raptors, however, that timeline is complicated by the international travel it requires amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. While players shouldn’t have trouble getting approval to fly from the United States to Canada and vice versa, it’s not clear what sort of quarantine periods might be required following those flights and whether that would impact the team’s plans.
Addressing the subject today on a call with reporters, Raptors head coach Nick Nurse said that the franchise is still working through a number of scenarios in the hopes of having practices before heading to Orlando in July. There’s an expectation that the NBA will approve group workouts in the coming weeks, but Nurse isn’t sure whether the Raps would hold a pre-Orlando camp in Canada or the United States.
“We haven’t really made a final decision on it on a date to reconvene, or where we’re going, or any of that kind of stuff yet,” Nurse said, per Tim Reynolds of The Associated Press. “We’ve made plans on both sides of the border, just for doing it as safe as possible. It’s kind of our first and foremost priority — then maybe as quickly as possible, too.”
As Reynolds notes, some Raptors players are currently in Toronto, but others are still in their home cities in the U.S. Currently, Canadian government regulations call for a 14-day quarantine period for anyone traveling into the country. Assuming players are subject to those same regulations, it might not make sense for them to travel to Toronto, quarantine for two weeks, then work out for a week or two before heading back across the border.
On the other hand, convening in a U.S. city for a week or two before Orlando would mean the Raptors – who hope to make a deep playoff run into at least September – would be away from home for an even longer stretch and could be the only team not resuming practices in their own facility.
The NBA hasn’t officially finalized its summer calendar yet, so we’ll probably have to wait for confirmation on those tentative camp dates before the Raptors set their own plans.
Brian Shaw To Coach G League Select Team
JUNE 9: Shaw’s hiring was officially confirmed today in a press release issued by the G League.
“Brian’s extensive experience and success as an NBA player and coach make him a natural choice to lead the new NBA G League team,” NBAGL president Shareef Abdur-Rahim said in a statement. “We look forward to watching these terrific young players develop their skills and grow as professionals under Brian’s leadership.”
JUNE 1: Veteran NBA coach Brian Shaw has agreed to become the head coach of the NBA G League’s new “Select Team,” sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link).
That G League squad will be made up of a handful of top prospects who opted not to play college ball, as well as several veteran players who will be tasked with mentoring the youngsters. The 2020/21 NBAGL Select Team – which will play exhibition games against other G League teams but won’t be part of the league’s official schedule – will include guards Jalen Green and Daishen Nix, forward Isaiah Todd, and center Kai Sotto.
Shaw, who was the head coach in Denver from 2013-15, has also served as an assistant coach for the Lakers and Pacers. He had two separate stints with the Lakers, most recently holding the title of associate head coach from 2016-19 under Luke Walton.
We heard back in April that Shaw was receiving consideration to coach the G League Select Team, along with David Fizdale and Sam Mitchell. At the time, it sounded as if Mitchell was on track to becoming the club’s head coach, with the other two men potentially being involved in some capacity. Now that Shaw has been tabbed for the head coaching position, we’ll see if Fizdale and Mitchell have any sort of roles with the Select Team.
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