Although he won’t be among this year’s pool of NBA free agents, Giannis Antetokounmpo may be the player whose next move is monitored closest this offseason.
Entering the final year of his contract with the Bucks, Antetokounmpo will be eligible for a five-year, super-max extension that would make him one of the NBA’s highest-paid players for years to come. However, after Milwaukee’s disappointing playoff showings during the last two seasons, there’s no guarantee that Giannis will sign that extension as soon as he’s eligible to do so.
Despite those postseason exits, Antetokunmpo has said all the right things about his desire to remain in Milwaukee long-term. And while we’ve heard those kind of comments before from star players who eventually leave their teams, Giannis’ stance seems genuine.
Milwaukee is the only home he has known since arriving in America, the Bucks are a talented team that has led the NBA in wins over the last two years, and Antetokounmpo doesn’t sound like he’s simply reading from a generic script when he talks about wanting to break through and win a title with the Bucks.
Still, until Antetokounmpo officially puts pen to paper on a new contract, anything can happen. Specifically, there are four scenarios that could play out for Giannis and the Bucks over the next year.
- Antetokounmpo signs a five-year, super-max extension with the Bucks this offseason. It would go into effect in 2021/22 and would start at 35% of the cap for that year.
- Antetokounmpo forgoes an extension this offseason, but remains with the Bucks for another year, then signs a new deal with the team during the 2021 offseason. He could still sign the five-year super-max in ’21. Or he could opt for a shorter-term deal, especially if the league’s updated salary cap projections suggest that approach might be more financially advantageous in the long run.
- Antetokounmpo doesn’t sign an extension this offseason, then joins a new team when he reaches free agency in 2021 — either by signing outright or via sign-and-trade. His max contract would be for four years, starting at 30% of the cap.
- Antetokounmpo doesn’t sign an extension this offseason and is traded before the 2021 deadline.
The fourth option has always seemed like the least probable outcome to me. As Tim Bontemps of ESPN reiterated this week, the Bucks are opposed to the idea of trading Antetokounmpo before his contract expires, preferring to make another run at a title with him in 2021. I imagine the team would only seriously consider a trade if Antetokounmpo asks for one, and he has stated he has no plans to do so.
The other three options are all more realistic possibilities, though I don’t have a feel yet for which outcome is likeliest. The Bucks will be able to put their super-max offer on the table for Antetokounmpo once the 2020/21 league year begins, which figures to happen in late November or early December. We should get a better idea by that point whether he’ll accept that offer this offseason.
If he doesn’t, the Bucks don’t need to panic. They’ll be able to put that same super-max offer back in play during the 2021 offseason and it’s worth more years and more money than Antetokoumpo can get anywhere else. Plus, if the Bucks can make the roster upgrades necessary to make a run to the NBA Finals in ’21, that would go a long way toward selling Giannis on a long-term future in Milwaukee.
We want to know what you think. Which outcome is the most likely for Antetokounmpo and the Bucks? Do you envision him remaining in Milwaukee for years to come, or are his days as a Buck numbered?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your two cents!
Trade Rumors app users, click here to vote.
Bucks don’t have highly respectful GM and valuable assets to acquire the third star
Probability ranking from me
1 sign extension – he is loyal
2 asked to be traded – he is nice
3 sign super max in 2021
4 free agent – walk for nothing
I think you’re forgetting what is probably the most likely option: he signs a 2+1 or a 1+1 contract so he can sign a super-max when we all have a better idea of what the cap is going to do.
This is probably what will happen I think you’re right. It’s what the stars do. Giannis probably likes it in Milwaukee but I don’t know how they’re going to attract more players to be a championship-caliber squad? So maybe he’ll do the OnePlus One stay in Milwaukee for two or three more years and then fly the coop?
I did mention that as an option for the 2021 offseason. I don’t think he’s likely to go that route this year — if he’s concerned about future cap figures, it makes more sense to wait a year for more clarity.
I think he does it this offseason, and there seems to be growing confidence around the Bucks that he will. Lock up 21–22 then opt out the summer of 22 when the cap increases.
I would be very surprised if he does not sign an extension or re-sign with Milwaukee as a free agent. He seems resolved to stay rather than relocate. The fact that they keep falling short in the playoffs they change that, of course.
*could change that…
Third star? Middleton Cmon! You’re the ahem dpoy and mvp go to the Lakers! Where the real dpoy and mvp resides!!
Oh yeah work on a your jump shot!
Lmao these Laker fans: “you suck at shooting, but come to LA!”
I don’t think that guy represents the Laker fan base and I don’t think it is realistic for Anthony Davis and Giannis to fit well together on the same team as both dominate the paint and are both superstar big men.
Also no way Giannis re-signs with the Lakers to play in LeBron’s shadow for even a year or two. Superstars want to beat LeBron, not join him.
He’s gone
Brooklyn has the best trade assets to get Giannis and no one is mentioning it. Dinwiddie, LeVert, Allen/Claxton and picks can get them anyone including Giannis for them.
That’s stupid. Let’s put three ball-dominant players in the same lineup.
Bad idea for Brooklyn for sure. Giannis wouldn’t re-sign there next offseason to continue competing with Kyrie to be second fiddle to KD. They’re better off using that trade package (which is a good group of assets) to get someone else.
Also, Giannis won’t be demanding a trade anytime soon, and the Bucks will 100% not trade him this offseason.
95% chance he’ll sign the super max this offseason. If he doesn’t, it’s unlikely he ever will. No $$ benefit to waiting a year. One more year is unlikely to give him much more clarity on the non-$$ items. Signing now is likely a prerequisite to the Bucks going all in (including being a taxpayer if need be).
Giannis stays. He grew up in a different place, a different culture, loyalty is a thing for him.
But if all of a sudden, Klutch Sports signs him up, then the fix is in ……… again.
Giannis needs to come to Dallas he’s more reliable than KP.
Forget that, Luka needs to come to Milwaukee if he wants a ring. He can’t win in the West. Luka and Giannis on the Bucks would be unstoppable.
So he will literally throw away millions of dollars to stay with a team that has shown it’s incapable of performing up to expectations during the playoffs? That is some serious loyalty there. Bravo to Giannis.
They’ve done better than the Rockets lately.
You mean the Bucks have made the playoffs 8 years straight and with one of the best records in the NBA over the last decade? I must have missed that somehow.
Who cares. Houston hasn’t sniffed the Finals since 2018 and won’t for years and years. Harden will bail by 2022 and the tanking will begin.
I just don’t see him Turning down 240 million dollars. Money is a huge reason not only he is only 25. He could always ask for a trade but 240 million could become another 3-400 million in 5 years. Get the most you can especially in this pandemic. The Bucks have to get another superstar and if he went to Heat or Dallas that’s not an definite championship. Build with the Bucks and championships will come.
Ask Kawhi about that exact scenario and he’ll tell you a story about how he ‘handled’ it…
Exactly why ask for a trade before you get paid idiot.
First of all I can’t see what is disappointing about MIL in the playoffs, last year they were in the ECF for the first time in like 20 years, this year yes they could have done better… but Giannis was injured, having said that he still was overall the 2nd best player in the playoffs so he performed at the highest level.
MIL just needs to make a few improvements in the roster, but with him there they will be in the Finals sooner or later, probably sooner. He should stay the course & be patient, he is only 25, he has 10 good years ahead of him.
That is the other thing, why on earth would a 25 year old superstar go ring chasing? That is what you do when you are over 30 & in clear decline, then is ok if that is what ticks you, but at 25 you enjoy life & play at the highest level possible & dominate the league as he does every game.
All in all he will stay in MIL, most probably he will sign this year, or if not next.
No way he asks for a trade or walks for nothin’, it just ain’t happening!!!