Extension Candidate: Cameron Johnson
This is the third installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a former lottery pick who was an important role player for a 64-win team last season.
Rundown:
The Suns shocked a lot of people by selecting Cameron Johnson with the No. 11 overall pick of the 2019 draft, as many scouts had him rated as a late first-rounder. He was technically drafted by the Timberwolves, who traded him along with Dario Saric to acquire the No. 6 pick, used on Jarrett Culver – an unmitigated disaster of a deal for Minnesota.
Part of the reason Johnson was rated lower than where he was drafted was that he was an older prospect. After receiving a redshirt for his freshman year, he wound up playing a full four years afterward – he spent his first few college seasons with Pittsburgh before transferring to North Carolina.
Johnson quickly quieted those critical of the move with a solid rookie season in 2019/20, appearing in 57 games (22.0 MPG) while averaging 8.8 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .435/.390/.807 shooting (.586 true shooting percentage).
His statistics were quite similar in year two: 9.6 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .420/.346/.847 shooting (.563 true) in 60 games (24.0). He was even better during Phoenix’s lengthy postseason run to the Finals, providing a ton of value with his sharpshooting – in 21 playoff games (21.1 MPG), he averaged 8.2 PPG and 3.1 RPG on .500/.466/.906 shooting (.693 true – a phenomenal mark).
Johnson had a breakout third season in ‘21/22, finishing third in Sixth Man of the Year voting after appearing in 66 games (26.2 MPG) with averages of 12.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG on .460/.425/.860 shooting. Among non-centers who averaged at least 12 PPG in 50 or more games, Johnson was fourth in the league in true shooting percentage (.625), trailing only Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and teammate Mikal Bridges.
Despite a disappointing second-round loss to Dallas, the 26-year-old had another strong individual playoff showing offensively last season, putting up 10.8 PPG and 3.5 RPG on .465/.373/.813 shooting (.619 true) in 13 games (24.6 MPG).
Strengths:
Johnson has proven to be a very efficient role player, and more than worthy of his draft slot. His shooting creates space for teammates, which is always valuable.
While he’s primarily known for his outside shooting, which he’s very good at (39% career from three, including 43.8% from the corners), Johnson is an underrated finisher as well. He shot 71% at the rim last season, which was in the 88th percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com.
Johnson is a very self-aware player, particularly on offense. He doesn’t try to do too much, which is a good thing for a complementary player – his 6.7% turnover percentage was the 11th-best mark in the NBA in ‘21/22, per Basketball-Reference. He isn’t asked to make plays for others very often, but he makes quick decisions if he isn’t open and is a willing passer – his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.13-to-1, which is a strong mark for a forward.
Phoenix’s offense, which ranked fifth in the league last season, could really soar if head coach Monty Williams gives Johnson a bigger role – he thrived in 16 games as a starter in place of Jae Crowder, averaging 16.3 PPG and 4.9 RPG on .492/.420/.912 shooting (.659 true).
Improvement areas:
At 6’8″ and 210 pounds, Johnson is slender for a power forward, his primary position. He lacks the strength to defend stronger players down low – Luka Doncic repeatedly exploited that fact during the playoffs.
Most advanced stats rated Johnson as a slightly above average defender, but that doesn’t pass the eye test – in most matchups he’s not a liability, but I think he’s closer to league average than above. He does certain things well – he’s pretty quick on his feet, does a good job of staying vertical when contesting shots, and rarely commits fouls.
However, he’s a below average rebounder, and while opponents shot 1.0% worse than expected with Johnson defending them during the regular season, they shot 3.3% better than expected in the playoffs, per NBA.com. Forcing turnovers isn’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to defense, but Johnson isn’t very good at that either – he recorded 0.9 steals and 0.2 blocks per game in ‘21/22.
Adding strength would help a lot, on both ends of the court. He’s already a very good finisher, but he doesn’t get to the free throw line much – adding some muscle would aid him in that regard. And while he’s a smart decision-maker, his ball-handling is pretty mechanical.
Conclusion:
Johnson is going to land a big payday on his next contract, the only question is when and from whom. As was the case with Deandre Ayton, luxury tax concerns will likely limit Phoenix’s interest in giving Johnson a hefty long-term extension (the Suns matched Ayton’s four-year maximum-salary offer sheet from the Pacers, but they could have given him more money – and an additional year – and chose not to).
If I were representing Johnson, I wouldn’t accept a team-friendly discount in the range of $60MM over four years, because he’d provide value to any NBA team with his highly efficient offensive game and (mostly) adequate defense. Whether he might be open to that is something only he knows.
The Spurs’ Keldon Johnson received a four-year extension with a base value of $74MM, and even though he’s four years older, I think Cameron will end up getting a deal similar to that. Despite the possibility of facing the repeater tax, I would imagine Phoenix would match a contract in that range when Johnson reaches restricted free agency next summer, but I’d be a little surprised if they offer it in an extension before the season starts.
If his agents try to point to his teammate Bridges as a reference point, I think that would be a mistake – Bridges is in a completely different class as a defender and is a better overall player. He received a four-year, $90MM extension from the Suns prior to last season, so I think Johnson will get less than that. Something in the range of $70-80MM sounds about right.
Contract Details: M. Morris, Vonleh, M. Hill, Blazers
Markieff Morris‘ one-year, minimum-salary contract with the Nets is non-guaranteed for now, but the veteran forward will receive a partial guarantee worth $500K if he isn’t waived on or before the first day of the regular season, Hoops Rumors has learned.
Morris’ partial guarantee would increase to $1MM if he hasn’t been cut by December 10. He would lock in his full $2,905,581 minimum salary (only $1,836,090 counts against the Nets’ cap) after the league-wide guarantee date in January, assuming he remains under contract.
Here are a few more details on recently signed contracts from around the NBA:
- Noah Vonleh‘s one-year, minimum-salary deal with the Celtics, which is now official, includes an Exhibit 9 clause, but not an Exhibit 10. Teams generally include Exhibit 10 clauses in order to either convert a contract to a two-way deal or because they expect the player to suit up for their G League affiliate. Vonleh isn’t eligible for a two-way deal and it appears there are no plans to have him join the Maine Celtics if he doesn’t make Boston’s regular season roster.
- Malcolm Hill accepted his two-way qualifying offer from the Bulls, Hoops Rumors has confirmed, so his two-way deal only covers one year — he’ll be eligible for restricted free agency in 2023.
- As expected, the four camp invitees signed by the Trail Blazers – Devontae Cacok, Olivier Sarr, Jared Rhoden, and Isaiah Miller – all received Exhibit 10 contracts. Portland doesn’t have a G League affiliate, so those players won’t receive Exhibit 10 bonuses, but their contracts could be converted into two-way deals.
Lakers Notes: Nunn, Backcourt, Westbrook, Outlook
Lakers guard Kendrick Nunn was recently cleared for increased contact in workouts, league sources tell Jovan Buha of The Athletic. Head coach Darvin Ham told reporters, including Buha, that Nunn has primarily been working on individual drills and working out in the weight room.
According to Buha, Ham also said that Nunn, Austin Reaves and Lonnie Walker are all in consideration for the starting lineup, and the trio will have “notable roles.”
Nunn, who missed all of last season with a knee issue, said he was “100%” healthy back in July, but subsequent reports from Buha have cast a cloud on his status. Still, additional contact was an important hurdle to clear for the 27-year-old, so we’ll see if he’s ready to go once the season starts next month.
Here’s more on the Lakers:
- The “combustible” pairing of Patrick Beverley and Russell Westbrook could provide the spark necessary to ignite the Lakers, or it could blow up in their faces, opines Mirjam Swanson of The Southern California Newsgroup (subscriber link). As Swanson observes, both players are well-known for being stubborn, and their previous run-ins have been well documented. Everyone in L.A. is saying the right things right now, but only their on-court play and actions will prove whether the backcourt pairing will work or not, Swanson adds.
- Westbrook needs to reinvent his game in order to make things work with the Lakers, argues Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times. Westbrook’s refusal to adjust his playing style was a primary reason why he fit so poorly with the team last season, Hernandez notes. Asking him to make drastic changes this late in his career might not be fair to the former MVP, but he’ll have to play much better defense and make offensive adjustments for the team to find success in year two, Hernandez writes.
- League insiders are pretty skeptical regarding the Lakers’ outlook for the 2022/23 season, according to Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report. One common thread brought up by the insiders was that the defense might not be good enough to hold up the poor shooting of the roster. Only one of the seven insiders Pincus spoke to was confident the Lakers would make the playoffs outright.
Eastern Notes: Harrell, Gafford, Raptors, Pistons
Sixers free agent addition Montrezl Harrell would ideally be used as a situational player rather than a primary backup center, according to Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice.com. In 71 games (23.1 MPG) split between the Wizards and Hornets last season, Harrell averaged 13.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 2.0 APG while shooting 64.5% from the floor and a career-high 71.6% from the line.
As Neubeck observes, Harrell will not only be reunited with former Rockets teammate James Harden, who reportedly played a major role in recruiting Harrell, but he’ll be playing under Doc Rivers once again as well — his former Clippers head coach.
Harrell won the Sixth Man of the Year award with the Clippers and Rivers a couple of years ago, but struggled defensively in the postseason, and Rivers stubbornly stuck with him. It remains to be seen whether Rivers will be more flexible with his lineups than he has been in the past, Neubeck notes.
The 28-year-old’s distinct strengths (energy, finishing at the rim) and weaknesses (size, defense) make it hard to rely on him in every matchup, but he should be well-positioned for a more defined role behind Joel Embiid, Neubeck writes.
Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:
- Scouts are split in their opinions regarding Wizards center Daniel Gafford due to his inconsistency, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic. Robbins takes an in-depth look at Gafford’s strengths and weaknesses, using video clips and stats, and querying scouts to get a well-rounded take on Gafford’s game and what he might develop into in the future.
- The Raptors didn’t make any splashy offseason moves, and may not be a top contender to come out of the East, but they’re not stuck in the middle either, argues Eric Koreen of The Athletic. Toronto is trying to develop young players while being as competitive as possible, which is a difficult balancing act at times, but the team has successfully managed it in the past, according to Koreen, who adds that the Raptors have consistently exceeded their expected win totals under president Masai Ujiri.
- In a mailbag column for The Athletic, James Edwards III tackles a number of Pistons-related topics. Edwards thinks second-year wing Isaiah Livers is a prime breakout candidate, Isaiah Stewart‘s three-point shooting from Summer League should carry over into the 2022/23 season, and veterans Cory Joseph, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel and Kelly Olynyk should all have more trade value as the in-season deadline nears.
Trail Blazers Officially Announce Four Camp Signings
The Trail Blazers have officially signed Devontae Cacok, Olivier Sarr, Isaiah Miller and Jared Rhoden, the team announced. All four players, whose deals were previously reported, received Exhibit 10 training camp deals.
Of the group, only Cacok and Sarr hold NBA experience — Cacok has appeared in 36 games in parts of three seasons with the Lakers and Spurs, while Sarr played 22 games with the Thunder last season. Miller went undrafted out of UNC Greensboro in 2021 and spent last season in the G League with the Iowa Wolves; Rhoden is an undrafted rookie out of Seton Hall.
The Blazers have an unusual roster situation for a couple of different reasons. At the end of August, they waived Didi Louzada, using the stretch provision to stay below the luxury tax threshold of $150,267,000. That left the standard 15-man roster with 14 players on guaranteed deals, but even adding a minimum-salary player would push them over the tax line, so that last spot will almost certainly remain open for now (they could sign someone later in the season if they want to, since NBA salaries are prorated).
The second reason the roster situation is unusual is because Portland is one of only two teams without an NBA G League affiliate (the Suns are the other). Ordinarily players signed to Exhibit 10 deals are earmarked as affiliate players, and assuming they’re waived before the regular season, they become eligible for a bonus worth up to $50K.
However, since the Blazers don’t have an affiliate, none of the four players will be eligible for the bonus. Instead, evidently all four will be competing for the club’s lone two-way spot that’s still open — Brandon Williams currently occupies the other. Players on two-way contracts are eligible to appear in up to 50 games, but aren’t eligible for the postseason.
Malcolm Hill Re-Signs With Bulls On Two-Way Deal
Malcolm Hill has re-signed with the Bulls on a two-way contract, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (via Twitter). According to NBA.com’s transactions log, the deal is already official.
The Bulls extended Hill a two-way qualifying offer at the end of June, so he likely just decided to sign the QO to stick with Chicago.
The 26-year-old Hill was an unusual rookie last year. He went undrafted in 2017 out of Illinois and played internationally in the Philippines, Germany, Kazakhstan, and Israel prior to returning stateside.
Hill initially signed a training camp deal with the Pelicans prior to the 2021/22 season, but was waived before the season started and spent time with the team’s G League affiliate, the Birmingham Squadron. In December of last year, he signed a 10-day hardship contract with the Hawks, appearing in three games.
After Hill’s 10-day deal with Atlanta expired, he caught on with Chicago, initially signing a 10-day hardship deal before inking a two-way contract. Hill appeared in 16 games (10.4 MPG) with the Bulls, averaging 3.4 PPG and 1.8 RPG on .432/.323/.700 shooting.
The 6’6″ wing had a bigger role and put up better stats for Chicago’s G League affiliate, the Windy City Bulls, averaging 18.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 3.1 APG on a stellar .500/.396/.875 shooting line in eight games (33.1 MPG). Hill most recently suited up for the Bulls’ Summer League squad, averaging 13.0 PPG and 3.8 RPG on .465/.474/.889 shooting in five games (25.0 MPG), per RealGM.
The Bulls have 15 players signed to guaranteed standard contracts and both two-way spots now filled, so their roster is already full heading into training camp. Any future signings will likely be Exhibit 10 deals with the option of being converted to two-way contracts — Justin Lewis‘ two-way spot might be vulnerable after he unfortunately suffered a torn ACL last month.
And-Ones: Expansion, Seattle, Vegas, Draft Assets, Ignite
Is the NBA ready to move forward on its long-rumored plans to expand to Seattle and Las Vegas? Willie G. Ramirez of The Associated Press (Twitter link) says he has heard from multiple sources that the league wants to announce expansion when those two cities hosts preseason games this fall. The Clippers will play in Seattle on September 30 and October 3, while the Lakers are set to play in Vegas on October 5 and 6.
Despite Ramirez’s report, it’s still probably premature to get excited about an impending announcement. Rumors of possible expansion have simmered off and on for years, and the NBA has repeatedly shot them down, indicating that any plans to add more teams are on the back-burner. Still, it seems increasingly likely that expansion is coming sooner or later, with Seattle and Las Vegas atop the league’s list of potential destinations.
Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- As rumors about expansion resurface, Evan Sidery of BasketballNews.com considers what an expansion draft might look like if the NBA uses the same rules it did for its last expansion draft (the Bobcats in 2004). Of course, Sidery’s hypothetical expansion draft is based on teams’ current rosters, and any expansion team is unlikely to enter the league for a few years, but it’s still an interesting exercise that shows what kinds of players might go unprotected.
- Following the Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell blockbuster trades, the Jazz have the strongest collection of future draft picks of any NBA team, according to ESPN’s Bobby Marks (Insider link), who ranks Utah’s draft assets slightly ahead of the Thunder‘s. The Spurs have the third-best stash of future picks, per Marks. The Pelicans, Rockets, Knicks, Magic, and Pacers round out his top eight, in that order.
- The G League Ignite have officially announced the additions of Australian prospect Mojave King and Canadian prospect Leonard Miller, confirming the signings today in a press release. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony previously reported that King and Miller would be joining the Ignite.
2022/23 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division
The 2022/23 NBA regular season will tip off next month, so it’s time to start getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and to continue an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.
With the help of the lines from a handful of sports betting sites – including Bovada, BetOnline, and Betway – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.
In 2021/22, our voters went 16-14 on their over/under picks. Can you top that in ’22/23?
We’ll continue our series today with the Southwest division…
Memphis Grizzlies
- 2021/22 record: 56-26
- Over/under for 2022/23: 49.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, Kennedy Chandler, Danny Green
- Lost: De’Anthony Melton, Kyle Anderson, Jarrett Culver
Dallas Mavericks
- 2021/22 record: 52-30
- Over/under for 2022/23: 48.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
New Orleans Pelicans
- 2021/22 record: 36-46
- Over/under for 2022/23: 44.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Dyson Daniels
- Note: Zion Williamson is also expected to be healthy for the Pelicans after missing the entire 2021/22 season.
- Lost: Tony Snell
- Added: Dyson Daniels
Houston Rockets
- 2021/22 record: 20-62
- Over/under for 2022/23: 24.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, TyTy Washington, Boban Marjanovic, Sterling Brown, Trey Burke, Marquese Chriss, Willie Cauley-Stein
- Note: A handful of these five veterans are unlikely to make the regular season roster.
- Lost: Christian Wood, Dennis Schröder , John Wall
- Added: Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, TyTy Washington, Boban Marjanovic, Sterling Brown, Trey Burke, Marquese Chriss, Willie Cauley-Stein
San Antonio Spurs
- 2021/22 record: 34-48
- Over/under for 2022/23: 23.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
Previous voting results:
- Miami Heat (50.5 wins): Under (56.6%)
- Atlanta Hawks (46.5 wins): Over (53.6%)
- Charlotte Hornets (36.5 wins): Under (63.0%)
- Washington Wizards (35.5 wins): Under (50.8%)
- Orlando Magic (26.5 wins): Over (55.3%)
Jordan Bell Signs With Guangzhou Loong Lions
Another NBA veteran has signed with the Guangzhou Loong Lions of the Chinese Basketball Association, according to Michael Scotto of HoopsHype, who reports (via Twitter) that big man Jordan Bell is joining the club.
Word broke earlier this week that point guard Jeremy Lin has also signed with Guangzhou.
The 38th overall pick in the 2017 draft, Bell has appeared in a total of 161 games for five NBA teams across five seasons, including 126 for the Warriors. He hasn’t been able to stick on an NBA roster in recent years, appearing in six games for the Wizards and Warriors in 2020/21 and just one game for the Bulls in ’21/22.
Bell holds career averages of 3.7 points and 3.1 rebounds in 12.0 minutes per game. His best season came as a rookie, when he appeared in 57 contests and averaged a career-high 14.2 MPG for the Warriors, who won a title that season.
This will be Bell’s first time playing overseas. When he hasn’t been in the NBA in recent years, the former Oregon standout has played in the G League, spending time with the Santa Cruz Warriors, Erie BayHawks, and Fort Wayne Mad Ants. He has also represented Team USA in some World Cup qualifying matches.
Latest On Kemba Walker, Pistons
It has been over two months since ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Pistons and Kemba Walker were finalizing a buyout agreement, but with training camps set to tip off in less than three weeks, the veteran point guard remains under contract in Detroit.
As James L. Edwards III of The Athletic explains in his latest mailbag, the Pistons would still like to buy out Walker, and the holdup isn’t due to anything on their end. Sources tell Edwards that Walker and the Pistons found common ground on a buyout number that would reduce his $9,165,471 cap hit by “a few million,” but the 32-year-old has yet to officially agree to those terms.
While Edwards can’t confirm why the move has been delayed, he suspects that Walker doesn’t yet have a new NBA home lined up and isn’t inclined to give up a portion of his salary until he’s confident he can make most or all of that money back on a new deal.
The Pistons currently have 17 players on guaranteed contracts and presumably aren’t interested in having Walker on their 15-man roster to start the season, since that would require them to trade or release two other players instead of just one. That means their leverage is limited as they try to nudge Walker to surrender some of his salary.
If he’s not confident he’ll have a contract offer on the table from another team, Walker could simply wait out the Pistons and let them waive him before the season begins, at which point they’d owe him his full $9MM+ salary. Taking that route wouldn’t be a major financial burden for Detroit, since the team’s total salary remains below the cap.
A minimum-salary contract for Walker in 2022/23 would be worth $2,905,851, so if he does find a suitor willing to sign him, that could be the amount he gives back to the Pistons in a buyout agreement.
A four-time All-Star, Walker has seen his production dip in the last year or two as he has been slowed by knee issues. He averaged 11.6 PPG and 3.5 APG on .403/.367/.845 shooting in 37 games (25.6 MPG) last season for the Knicks, and was a liability on defense.