Author: Luke Adams

In 2022/23, the Cavaliers made the playoffs without LeBron James on their roster for the first time since 1998 and earned the No. 4 seed before being quickly dispatched in the first round by the No. 5 Knicks. They entered the ’23/24 season with a fairly simple goal: win their first playoff series without LeBron since 1993.

Cleveland ultimately achieved that goal, but the path to get there was a bumpy and somewhat unsatisfying one. Rather than taking a step forward during the regular season, they won three fewer games (48) than they did a year ago (51), then narrowly escaped a seven-game first-round series against a lower-seeded Magic team whose core players were participating in their first postseason. The Cavs were never close to getting past the Celtics in the second round, falling to the eventual champions in five games.

Now, there are a few caveats that make the Cavs’ season sound better than it appeared on the surface. They had to deal with a series of injuries affecting their most important players in both the regular season – Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley each missed 25+ games – and the postseason, where starting center Jarrett Allen missed eight of 12 contests due to a rib injury and a calf issue sidelined Mitchell for final two games vs. Boston. And even if the Cavs had been fully healthy, no one was beating the Celtics in these playoffs — Cleveland’s one win against them was as many as any of Boston’s four playoff opponents earned.

Still, Cavs management was dissatisfied enough with the team’s season on the whole to make a head coaching change this spring, dismissing J.B. Bickerstaff after he spent four-plus seasons in that role. The club has yet to officially hire a replacement, but appears to be leaning toward James Borrego, the former Hornets head coach who has spent the last two seasons as a top assistant in New Orleans.

Will the head coaching change be the only major move the Cavaliers make this offseason, or will the front office also determine that significant roster changes are needed to take the next step toward title contention? Will Mitchell, who can become a free agent in 2025, sign an extension with the franchise or decline to commit beyond next season? The answers to those two questions will help the Cavs chart a path this summer and will determine just how similar next year’s roster looks to this year’s.

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The Cavaliers’ Offseason Plan

We don’t yet have definitive answers to the two questions posed above, but recent chatter has suggested we’re trending in a certain direction. A series of reports have indicated there’s growing optimism in Cleveland about the team’s odds of extending Mitchell this offseason. That would be a big win for the Cavs, who gave up a huge collection of assets — including Lauri Markkanen and multiple unprotected first-round picks — to acquire Mitchell from Utah two years ago.

There has been speculation that Mitchell will opt for a shorter-term extension that lines him up to get his next deal in 2027, when he has 10 years of service under his belt, rather than seeking the longest term possible at this time. I have to think that would be just fine with the Cavaliers, who would be happy to get some clarity of any kind and would be able to put off any major decisions about Mitchell’s future for at least a couple more years. If that scenario comes to pass, the star guard would likely sign a three-year extension worth a projected $151MM that begins in 2025/26 and includes a third-year player option for ’27/28.

If Mitchell gets extended, Garland’s future will become the newest subject of speculation in Cleveland. The former All-Star is under contract for four more guaranteed seasons and the Cavs have shown no inclination to break up their star-studded backcourt, but at least one report has stated that a new deal for Mitchell could prompt Garland’s representatives at Klutch Sports to talk to the club about finding a new home for their client. Garland, who made the All-Star team in 2022, has seen his scoring, assists, and usage rate decline in the two seasons since Mitchell’s arrival.

Even if Garland or his reps ask for a trade, the Cavaliers would be under no obligation to grant that request, given that he has no path to free agency until 2028. But it’s fair to wonder if it might actually be in the club’s best interest to consider a deal that sends out Garland for a wing who would better balance the roster.

The best stretch of Cleveland’s 2023/24 season came after Garland suffered a broken jaw in December. The team, which had a 13-12 record to that point, went 15-4 with Garland sidelined. Additionally, while Mitchell had a +7.3 net rating during his 1,943 regular season minutes, that number dipped to +4.4 during the 750 minutes in which he shared the court with Garland.

On their own, those numbers aren’t nearly compelling enough to justify trading a 24-year-old who has an All-Star nod on his résumé, especially since they don’t tell the full story — for instance, a few of the wins in that 15-4 stretch came without Mitchell available, and the team’s hot streak extended well into Garland’s return. While they’re both ball-dominant, Mitchell and Garland are also reliable three-point shooters, so the fit isn’t bad. That’s why I expect the club to keep its guard duo intact through the 2024 offseason, unless things go south in some way (e.g. Mitchell doesn’t sign an extension, or Garland pushes aggressively for a trade).

That’s not the only positional overlap the Cavs will have to evaluate this summer though. Mobley is up for a rookie scale extension and is considered likely to get a maximum-salary offer. Up to this point, the team has been happy to play him at power forward alongside Allen at center, but the strengths (rim protection, interior scoring) and weaknesses (a lack of floor spacing) of those two big men are pretty similar, resulting in speculation that Mobley will eventually make the move to the five.

As with the guards, there are reasons why it makes some sense to retain both bigs. Having both of them available gives the Cavs the ability to have an elite rim protector on the floor for all 48 minutes, and playing them alongside one another helps make up for defensive breakdowns on the perimeter. The duo also didn’t really get the chance to show what it could do together on the postseason stage, since Allen was injured in Game 4 of the first round and didn’t play again after that.

But again, the Cavs had a better net rating with just one of Allen or Mobley on the court than they did when the two big men played together. And if the club decides Mobley is the center of the future, Allen would have substantial value on the trade market this summer, given his relatively team-friendly contract, which has just two years and $40MM left on it.

While I like the idea of moving Allen a little more than I like the idea of moving Garland, finding a perfect match isn’t easy. From an on-court perspective, a deal with the Pelicans (who have had interest in Allen for years) involving Brandon Ingram makes a ton of sense, but if the Cavs are already on the hook for maximum-salary contracts for Mitchell, Garland, and Mobley, acquiring Ingram in order to extend him and add a fourth max deal to their books probably isn’t financially feasible. If Cleveland is going to move Allen for a wing or forward, the team would probably want that player earning a salary more in the range of Allen’s $20MM.

Washington could be a fit. Kyle Kuzma‘s three-year, $64.4MM contract is far more manageable that what Ingram will earn over the next few seasons. However, Kuzma’s subpar three-point efficiency (33.6% in 2023/24; 33.7% for his career) would be an issue for the Cavs, and the rebuilding Wizards, who are in position to draft their center of their future (Alexandre Sarr or Donovan Clingan) at No. 2 in next week’s draft, may not have much interest in Allen.

With those roadblocks in mind, it’s perhaps not surprising that Koby Altman told reporters in May that he doesn’t expect “sweeping changes” this offseason, or that recent reports have suggested the front office’s private stance has aligned with its public one.

If Mitchell signs an extension, all four of Cleveland’s core pieces will be under contract for multiple seasons and would each still have significant trade value at the 2025 trade deadline, in the 2025 offseason, or even at the 2026 deadline. The Cavs can afford to be patient for the time being, perhaps waiting to see if the new head coach helps that core unlock its full potential. There’s no reason to rush into a trade involving Garland or Allen this summer unless the deal is an obvious fit from both a basketball and financial perspective.

So if the Cavs stand pat with their big four, what might their offseason look like? Well, their position to the tax line will have to be a consideration as they weigh possible decisions, including what to do with restricted free agent Isaac Okoro. If we assume the team locks in Craig Porter‘s partially guaranteed salary and keeps its first-round pick (20th overall), payroll would be at about $159MM for 11 players. That would leave plenty of room below a projected $171MM+ luxury tax line to fill out the roster with minimum-salary players, but a new deal for Okoro – whose qualifying offer is $11.8MM and who will likely exceed that figure on a new contract – would almost certainly push the Cavs into a tax territory.

If the Cavs want to retain Okoro and aren’t prepared to be a taxpayer, perhaps a deal involving Caris LeVert ($16.6MM) or Georges Niang ($8.5MM) could be in the cards. Frankly, both players could become trade candidates even if tax savings aren’t a consideration.

LeVert doesn’t make sense in the club’s starting five and is on an expiring contract. While he has some value as a sixth man, the club could stagger Mitchell and Garland to ensure one of them is running the second unit, reducing the need for another ball-dominant player like LeVert in that group. As for Niang, he was one of Cleveland’s most-used reserves during the season and shot the ball well (.376 3PT%), but saw his minutes slashed in the playoffs due to his defensive limitations. Both guys have value to Cleveland, but I expect the team to at least explore upgrading their spots.

Ty Jerome is another candidate to be traded after he missed nearly his entire first year in Cleveland due to an ankle injury, though his cap hit is just $2.56MM. If he’s healthy, the Cavs may prefer to keep Jerome and see if he can deliver on the promise he showed in 2022/23 that prompted the club to give him a guaranteed two-year deal in the first place.

If this year’s No. 20 pick isn’t used as a sweetener in a trade, the Cavs can afford to take the best player available at that spot, since they won’t necessarily be expecting that player to vie for a spot in the rotation right away. I could also see the club trading down in order to replenish its cupboard of future draft assets a little and to reduce the cap hit for that pick. For what it’s worth, the latest mock drafts from both ESPN and Bleacher Report have the club rolling the dice at No. 20 on one of the youngest players in the draft, Pittsburgh guard Carlton Carrington.

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Salary Cap Situation

Guaranteed Salary

• Darius Garland ($36,725,670)
• Donovan Mitchell ($35,410,310)
• Jarrett Allen ($20,000,000)
• Caris LeVert ($16,615,384)
• Max Strus ($15,212,068)
• Evan Mobley ($11,227,657)
• Georges Niang ($8,500,000)
• Dean Wade ($6,166,667)
• Ty Jerome ($2,560,975)
• Craig Porter ($1,000,000)
  • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted below.
• Total: $153,418,731
  

Non-Guaranteed Salary

• Sam Merrill ($2,164,993)
• Craig Porter ($891,857)
  • Partial guarantee. Rest of salary noted above.
• Total: $3,056,850
  

Dead/Retained Salary

• Ricky Rubio ($1,274,015)
• Total: $1,274,015

Player Options

• None

Team Options

• None

Restricted Free Agents

• Isaac Okoro ($11,828,974 qualifying offer / $26,762,385 cap hold): Bird rights
• Total (cap holds): $26,762,385

Two-Way Free Agents

• Emoni Bates: Non-Bird rights
• Isaiah Mobley: Early Bird rights
• Pete Nance: Non-Bird rights

Note: Because he has finished each of the past two seasons on a two-way contract with the Cavaliers, Mobley’s qualifying offer would be worth his minimum salary (projected to be $2,093,637). It would include a small partial guarantee.

Draft Picks

• No. 20 overall pick ($3,336,000 cap hold)
• Total (cap holds): $3,336,000

Extension-Eligible Players

• Jarrett Allen (veteran)
• Donovan Mitchell (veteran)
• Evan Mobley (rookie scale)
  
• Dean Wade (veteran)
  • Extension-eligible as of September 27.

Note: Unless otherwise indicated, these players are eligible for extensions beginning in July.

Unrestricted Free Agents

• Damian Jones ($2,093,637 cap hold): Early Bird rights
• Marcus Morris ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Tristan Thompson ($2,093,637 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
• Total (cap holds): $6,280,911

Other Cap Holds

• Ed Davis ($2,093,637 cap hold)
• Raul Neto ($2,093,637 cap hold)
• Rajon Rondo ($2,093,637 cap hold)
• Total (cap holds): $6,280,911

Note: The cap holds for these players are on the Cavaliers’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.

Cap Exceptions Available

Note: The Cavaliers project to operate over the cap and under the first tax apron.

• Non-taxpayer mid-level exception: $12,859,000