Collin Sexton Cleared For Full Basketball Activities
With his restricted free agency around the corner, Cavaliers guard Collin Sexton has been cleared to participate in full basketball activities, sources tell Shams Charania of The Athletic.
Sexton suffered a torn meniscus in his left knee back in November, just 11 games into the 2021/22 campaign. The injury sidelined him for the remainder of the season, including Cleveland’s brief postseason run — the team lost both its play-in games.
Sexton, 23, ranked among the NBA’s leading scorers in 2020/21, averaging 24.3 PPG and 4.4 APG with a shooting line of .475/.371/.815. His scoring and play-making ability should make him a popular target in free agency this offseason, despite his lost ’21/22 season.
According to Charania, rival executives believe Sexton’s market could reach the neighborhood of $20MM per year.
Multiple reports have indicated that the Cavaliers would like to re-sign Sexton, and they’ll have the right of first refusal, giving them the ability to match any offer sheet he signs with another team. As long as the bidding doesn’t get too high for the former Alabama guard, I’d expect to see him back in Cleveland. Still, it’s worth noting that the Cavs added some backcourt depth by acquiring Caris LeVert earlier this year, giving them some some insurance in the event that they can’t find common ground with Sexton.
Nets, Kyrie Irving Reportedly At Impasse In Talks
Conversations between the Nets and Kyrie Irving about his future have “gone stagnant,” according to Shams Charania of The Athletic, who hears from sources that the two sides are currently at an impasse. The deadlock could prompt the star guard to consider other destinations, Charania reports.
Irving said after the Nets’ season ended that he didn’t plan to go anywhere, and a report just two weeks ago suggested he was likely to remain in Brooklyn. However, negotiations between his camp and the Nets were always expected to be challenging, given that his stock has dipped a little in recent years and he no longer seems like a good bet to land a fully guaranteed long-term maximum salary contract.
Irving has been as productive as ever when he has played for the Nets over the last three seasons, averaging 27.1 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.7 rebounds per game on .490/.406/.920 shooting. However, injuries and personal decisions have limited him to just 103 appearances out of a possible 226 regular season games during that time and have raised questions about his reliability going forward.
Charania writes that the Nets and Irving have “serious work to do” to resolve his contract situation and ensure he remains in Brooklyn. If Kyrie does consider heading elsewhere, the Lakers, Clippers, and Knicks are expected to be among his suitors, sources tell The Athletic.
As Charania observes, the Lakers and Clippers project to be over the tax apron for the 2022/23 season, likely ruling out the possibility of a sign-and-trade. So if he wants to go to either L.A. team, Irving would probably have to pick up his $36.9MM player option with an understanding that a trade is coming. The Knicks don’t project to have cap room, but would have the cap flexibility to pursue Irving via sign-and-trade if he declines his option to become an unrestricted free agent.
The Clippers and Knicks are in a better position to make a viable trade offer for Irving than the Lakers, who would almost certainly have to include Russell Westbrook‘s $47MM+ expiring deal in any package for salary-matching purposes.
Tomas Satoransky Nearing Deal With Barcelona?
After spending the last six years in the NBA, veteran guard Tomas Satoransky may be headed back to Europe for the 2022/23 season.
According to a report from Aris Barkas of Eurohoops (Twitter link), Satoransky is closing in on a deal to rejoin Barcelona, his former team in Spain. In a full story, Antigoni Zachari of Eurohoops cautions that no formal agreement is in place yet, though the negotiations appear to be nearing the finish line.
Satoransky was a regular rotation player in Washington and Chicago from 2016-21, but had a down year in 2021/22 after being sent to New Orleans as part of last summer’s Lonzo Ball sign-and-trade deal. Satoransky was traded twice more during the season – first to Portland, then to San Antonio – and then signed with the Wizards after being waived by the Spurs. In total, he appeared in 55 games for three teams, averaging 3.6 PPG and 3.3 APG on .377/.208/.796 shooting in 16.5 minutes per contest.
Satoransky, 30, began playing professionally in the Czech Republic in 2007 and eventually moved to Spain, where he played for Sevilla from 2009-14 and Barcelona from 2014-16. He was named the Spanish League’s Most Spectacular Player in 2016 before heading stateside to join the Wizards later that year.
Satoransky has appeared in a total of 388 regular season NBA contests (22.2 MPG) in the last six seasons, averaging 6.9 PPG and 4.1 APG with a shooting line of .468/.354/.820.
2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Miami Heat
Following a swift first-round playoff exit in 2021, the Heat brought in a handful of hard-nosed players with championship experience, completing a sign-and-trade deal for Kyle Lowry, using most of their mid-level exception on P.J. Tucker, and signing Markieff Morris to a minimum-salary contract. At the same time, Miami bet on young players like Gabe Vincent and Max Strus being ready for bigger roles after spending the 2020/21 season on two-way deals with the team.
While not every one of the Heat’s offseason moves paid huge dividends – a neck injury cost Morris most of the season and he wasn’t part of the playoff rotation – the club’s strategy was a good one on the whole. Lowry, Tucker, Vincent, and Strus all played key roles in complementing All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo and Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro, while other youngsters like Caleb Martin and Omer Yurtseven proved their worth on minimum-salary contracts.
Miami’s deep, well-balanced squad earned the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed with a 53-29 regular season record, then won a pair of playoff series over Atlanta and Philadelphia. Unfortunately, by the time the Eastern Conference Finals tipped off, the Heat’s roster was incredibly banged up, with Lowry in particular limited due to a hamstring injury that sidelined him for eight playoff contests. The club didn’t have enough left in the tank to get by the Celtics, losing to Boston in a seven-game battle that went right down to the wire.
While the Heat fell short of a title, you could make a case that their roster was championship-caliber, or at least very close to it. If a couple plays had gone a little differently, it might’ve been Miami and not Boston that represented the East in the NBA Finals. The front office’s task this offseason will be determining how best to keep the Heat at that championship level and then to find the missing piece that could help put them over the top.
The Heat’s Offseason Plan:
The Heat have five players on guaranteed contracts for 2022/23. Of those players, it’s safe to assume Butler and Adebayo aren’t going anywhere. That’s less of a sure thing for Lowry, Herro, and Duncan Robinson.
Lowry has always been a player whose value goes beyond his box-score numbers. He’s a talented defender who has a knack for taking charges, and his offensive creativity helps lead to baskets on which he’s not credited with points or an assist. However, he turned 36 years old this year, his sparkling analytics numbers have begun to decline, and his hamstring issues turned him into a below-average rotation player in many of the Heat’s biggest games this spring.
Based on his contract (two years, $58MM), Lowry may have negative value as a trade chip at this point, which means the Heat will probably hang onto him, since he’s still capable of providing more value on the court than he would as a trade asset. However, if Miami gets an opportunity to acquire a younger backcourt star and has to use Lowry as a salary-matching piece, I can’t imagine they’d hesitate to do so.
Robinson appears to be a more likely offseason trade chip, since his 2022/23 cap number ($16.9MM) is more manageable than Lowry’s. As a high-volume three-point shooter who has connected on 40.6% of his career attempts from beyond the arc, Robinson is a solid role player, especially during the regular season. But his defensive limitations were an issue in the playoffs, since he provided little on-court value when his shot wasn’t falling regularly.
If the Heat use Robinson in an offseason trade, they would need to include at least one additional asset in the package to have a chance to acquire an impact player. That asset is most likely to be a draft pick. Miami has the ability to move its 2022 first-round pick (27th overall) and/or its 2023 first-rounder, as well as at least one future first-rounder (no earlier than 2027). One or two of those picks might be enough to sweeten the deal for most of the team’s realistic offseason trade targets.
While the Heat are likely to dangle those first-round picks before making any of their young, inexpensive rotation players available, it’s worth noting that Herro will be entering a contract year and will be extension-eligible this offseason. He was terrific during the regular season, but struggled in the playoffs, where his scoring average dipped by eight points (20.7 to 12.6 PPG) and he made just 22.9% of his three-pointers.
That playoff performance – and the fact that Herro still has plenty of room for improvement on defense – might give the Heat pause as they enter negotiations on a rookie scale extension that could be worth in excess of $100MM for four years. Pat Riley has long resisted the idea of dealing Herro and I wouldn’t expect an abrupt about-face on that stance this summer, but if the right player is available on the trade market, I don’t think Herro should be entirely off-limits — it’s possible moving him now rather than investing heavily on his next contract would benefit Miami in the long term.
One or more of the Heat’s four players on non-guaranteed contracts – Strus, Vincent, Yurtseven, and Haywood Highsmith – could theoretically be added to a trade package, but I’d expect all four to be back. Strus and Vincent, in particular, are two of the Heat’s latest developmental success stories and will be major bargains next season, helping to offset the cost of high-priced veterans like Butler, Adebayo, and Lowry.
After handling the power forward role admirably in his first year in Miami, Tucker has the opportunity to opt out of his contract and become a new free agent. He and the Heat seemed like a good fit in 2021/22, so I wouldn’t expect Tucker to decline his player option in order to jump ship, but turning down the option and signing a new one-plus-one contract (potentially with a slight raise) would probably be in his best interest. As good as Tucker was this past season, he’s 37 years old and could start showing real signs of decline soon, so this may be his last chance to sign for more than the minimum.
If the Heat re-sign Tucker at a similar price to his option and keep their first-round pick, they’d still have about $13MM in breathing room below the luxury tax line to fill out three or four remaining roster spots.
Victor Oladipo and Martin are candidates to return and fill a couple of those roster spots, but negotiating a new deal with Martin could be tricky, since Miami only holds his Non-Bird rights. That means the Heat wouldn’t be able to offer him more than about $2.25MM for the 2022/23 season unless they’re willing to dip into the mid-level exception to increase their offer. Miami may decide that using some of the mid-level exception to re-sign Martin is the best way to maximize the MLE’s value, but if the team has that mid-level money earmarked for an outside target, Martin seems unlikely to return.
Since the Heat have Oladipo’s Bird rights, they have more flexibility to offer him a raise. Whether or not he returns will come down to how much interest he draws from rival suitors and perhaps how willing Miami is to go into the tax, depending on what other moves are made.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.
Guaranteed Salary
- Jimmy Butler ($37,653,300)
- Bam Adebayo ($30,351,780)
- Kyle Lowry ($28,333,334)
- Duncan Robinson ($16,902,000)
- Tyler Herro ($5,722,116)
- Mychal Mulder (two-way)
- Javonte Smart (two-way)
- Total: $118,962,530
Player Options
- P.J. Tucker ($7,350,000): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $7,350,000
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Max Strus ($1,815,677) 1
- Gabe Vincent ($1,815,677) 2
- Omer Yurtseven ($1,752,638) 3
- Haywood Highsmith ($1,752,638) 4
- Total: $7,136,630
Restricted Free Agents
- Caleb Martin ($2,076,674 qualifying offer / $2,076,674 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $2,076,674
Two-Way Free Agents
- None
Draft Picks
- No. 27 overall pick ($2,209,920)
- Total: $2,209,920
Extension-Eligible Players
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.
- Tyler Herro (rookie scale)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- Dewayne Dedmon ($1,811,516 cap hold): Early Bird rights
- Udonis Haslem ($1,811,516 cap hold): Bird rights
- Jordan Mickey ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights 5
- Markieff Morris ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Victor Oladipo ($1,811,516 cap hold): Bird rights
- Dwyane Wade ($1,811,516 cap hold): Early Bird rights 5
- Total: $10,869,096
Offseason Cap Outlook
If we assume the Heat will retain all of their players on non-guaranteed contracts, they’d be at about $126MM for nine players, so they’ll certainly operate over the cap. That would leave them with about $23MM in wiggle room below the projected tax line ($149MM) for the remaining five or six roster spots.
If Tucker and/or Oladipo return and the Heat use a major chunk of their mid-level exception, that wiggle room would disappear quickly, but the club certainly has the flexibility to stay out of the tax if that’s a top priority.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $10,349,000 6
- Bi-annual exception: $4,050,000 6
- Trade exception: $1,782,621
Footnotes
- Strus’ salary will become fully guaranteed after June 29.
- Vincent’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 29.
- Yurtseven’s salary will become fully guaranteed after June 29.
- Highsmith’s salary will become partially guaranteed for $50K on July 1, with that partial guarantee increasing to $400,000 after the first game of the regular season.
- The cap holds for Mickey and Wade remain on the Heat’s books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- These are projected values. If the Heat approach or cross the tax line, they may not have access to the full mid-level exception and/or bi-annual exception and would instead be limited to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($6,392,000).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Dallas Mavericks
Halfway through the 2021/22 season, the Mavericks – still below .500 through 35 games – appeared headed for another middle-of-the-pack playoff spot and an early postseason exit. However, Dallas’ fortunes took a turn for the better when the team decided to give up on the Kristaps Porzingis experiment, sending him to D.C. along with a second-round pick in exchange for Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans at the trade deadline.
The move raised eyebrows around the basketball world, given that Dinwiddie and Bertans were on pricey multiyear contracts and were having down years for the Wizards. The fact that the Mavericks couldn’t get more for the oft-injured Porzingis was a sign of how significantly his stock had dropped since Dallas acquired him from New York in 2019.
But the Mavs recognized that, besides being more consistently healthy than Porzingis, Dinwiddie and Bertans were better fits for the rotation, providing the sort of play-making and outside shooting that perfectly complemented Luka Doncic. The two veterans – particularly Dinwiddie – bounced back and played key roles in the the Mavs’ strong finish — the team posted the NBA’s second-best record (20-7) from deadline day onward.
The Mavs’ success carried over into the postseason, where they dispatched Utah and Phoenix in the first two rounds before running into the eventual champion Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. It was easily the deepest playoff run the club had made since winning the title in 2011, and it came at just the right time, with Doncic’s second contract set to go into effect in 2022/23. More moves will need to be made around the perennial MVP candidate to solidify Dallas’ spot as a true title contender, but this year’s success signaled things are headed in the right direction.
The Mavericks’ Offseason Plan:
The Mavericks have already made what will be one of the biggest moves of their summer, agreeing to send the No. 26 pick in this year’s draft and four bench players (Sterling Brown, Boban Marjanovic, Marquese Chriss, and Trey Burke) to Houston in exchange for big man Christian Wood.
Wood has established himself in recent years as one of the NBA’s most talented frontcourt scorers and rebounders, averaging 19.1 PPG and 9.9 RPG on .507/.384/.626 shooting in his 109 games with the Rockets. However, his defensive limitations, lingering character concerns, and contract situation (he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in 2023) hindered Houston’s ability to trade him for more than a late first-round pick and salary filler.
The Wood trade, which can become official after the Mavericks officially draft a player on behalf of the Rockets on June 23, accomplishes two things for Dallas.
For one, it gives the Mavs the sort of versatile offensive threat up front that they lost when they traded away Porzingis. Both Wood and Porzingis can hit outside shots, but Porzingis had a tendency to lean on post-ups and mid-range shots more than Dallas might have liked, while most of Wood’s two-point attempts come around the basket, making him a better pick-and-roll partner for Doncic. Given what he’ll bring to the offense, the Mavs will be happy to get even average production from Wood on the defensive end.
The four-for-one swap will also give Dallas some additional roster flexibility entering the offeason. Prior to the trade agreement with Houston, the Mavs had 14 players under contract for next season and wanted to re-sign Jalen Brunson to fill the 15th spot on the roster. Now, even if Brunson is re-signed, the club will have at least three openings on its 15-man squad.
Speaking of Brunson, his free agency will be the most crucial issue for the Mavs to address this offseason, especially now that the team has fortified its frontcourt by agreeing to trade for Wood. Brunson has steadily improved in each of his four NBA seasons, putting up 16.3 PPG and 4.8 APG with a .502/.373/.840 shooting line in the 2021/22 regular season and then boosting his scoring average to 21.6 PPG in the playoffs.
It’s a safe bet that Brunson will receive a four-year deal at least in the Fred VanVleet/Malcolm Brogdon/Lonzo Ball range ($80-85MM). The question is how much higher the bidding might go, with teams like the Knicks and Pistons reportedly interested in prying the point guard away from Dallas. The Mavs hold Brunson’s Bird rights and could go all the way up to the max if they need to, but they’ll pay a penalty for every extra dollar they spend, since their team salary projects to surpass the luxury tax line even without Brunson on the books.
Team owner Mark Cuban isn’t the type to pinch pennies and let Brunson walk to save money, so I’d be surprised if the point guard isn’t back with the Mavs next season. There are other players on the roster, including Dinwiddie ($20.2MM), Tim Hardaway Jr. ($19.6MM), Bertans ($16MM), and Dwight Powell ($11.1MM) whose contracts could be shopped if Dallas feels the need to keep the payroll in check.
Of course, the flip side of that argument is that the Mavs probably won’t be able to move players like Dinwiddie, Hardaway, Bertans, and Powell for anything of real value, and may have to attach assets to a couple of them to trade them at all. A sign-and-trade deal involving Brunson, meanwhile, could net one or two legitimate assets, and Dinwiddie gives Dallas a fallback option at point guard. While those are compelling reasons to at least consider the idea of a sign-and-trade, I don’t expect Brunson to be the odd man out on this Mavs roster.
As for how the team should fill its final roster spots, Theo Pinson is said to be a strong candidate to receive a promotion from his two-way deal to a standard contract, and the Mavs will reportedly explore the idea of signing Goran Dragic, adding another intriguing layer to the Brunson negotiations.
Maxi Kleber and Frank Ntilikina have non-guaranteed salaries for 2022/23 and it will be interesting to see whether the Mavs decide to part with either player. Kleber had perhaps his worst year as a pro this past season, but has been a reliable rotation piece in Dallas for most of the last five seasons, while Ntilikina’s defensive ability makes him a worthwhile investment at his price point ($2.04MM). Even if they both have their salaries guaranteed, they’ll be on expiring contracts and could be trade chips in the offseason or at the ’23 deadline.
If Kleber and Ntilikina are back and the Mavs are confident in Hardaway’s health and Josh Green‘s ability to play a regular role, the club could target one more frontcourt player to fill out the roster. A defensive-minded center to help Wood and Powell match up with the Nikola Jokics of the world would make some sense. One more wing would also be a fit.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.
Guaranteed Salary
- Luka Doncic ($36,600,000) 1
- Spencer Dinwiddie ($20,171,427)
- Tim Hardaway Jr. ($19,602,273)
- Davis Bertans ($16,000,000)
- Christian Wood ($14,317,459) 2
- Dorian Finney-Smith ($12,402,000)
- Dwight Powell ($11,080,125)
- Reggie Bullock ($10,012,800)
- Josh Green ($3,098,400)
- Total: $143,284,484
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Maxi Kleber ($9,000,000) 3
- Frank Ntilikina ($2,036,318) 4
- Total: $11,036,318
Restricted Free Agents
- None
Two-Way Free Agents
- Theo Pinson ($1,941,833 qualifying offer / $1,941,833 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Moses Wright ($1,616,044 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $3,557,877
Draft Picks
- None
Extension-Eligible Players
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.
- Maxi Kleber (veteran)
- Dwight Powell (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
J.J. Redick ($16,917,810 cap hold): Early Bird rights 5- Nicolo Melli ($5,066,667 cap hold): Early Bird rights 5
- Jalen Brunson ($1,811,516 cap hold): Bird rights
- Total: $23,795,993
Offseason Cap Outlook
With $143MM+ already committed to nine guaranteed contracts, the Mavericks project to go over the projected $149MM tax line even if they fill out their roster with minimum-salary players. Guaranteeing Kleber’s salary and re-signing Brunson would push Dallas’ team salary way beyond that threshold.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 6
- Trade exception: $10,865,952
Footnotes
- Doncic’s salary will be worth 30% of the salary cap. If the cap ends up above or below $122MM, this figure will be adjusted upward or downward.
- The Mavericks’ trade for Wood can’t be officially completed until draft night.
- Kleber’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 3.
- Ntilikina’s salary will become fully guaranteed after July 4.
- The cap holds for Redick and Melli remain on the Mavericks’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- This is a projected value. The Mavericks could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) if they remain below the tax apron.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
Kings’ No. 4 Overall Pick Drawing Serious Interest
The No. 4 overall pick, currently held by the Kings, is generating significant trade interest from teams further down in the draft order, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski said during NBA Countdown on Thursday night (video link).
With Jabari Smith, Chet Holmgren, and Paolo Banchero widely expected to be the first three players off the board next Thursday, teams interested in acquiring the No. 4 pick have a specific target in mind, according to Wojnarowski.
“That No. 4 pick that the Sacramento Kings hold is very much in play. There are a lot of teams trying to get deals done with Sacramento so they can move up to select Jaden Ivey,” Wojnarowski said. “That’s teams close to them in the lottery – (the Pistons and Pacers), who are five and six – the New York Knicks at No. 11, (the) Washington Wizards at No. 10, and even some teams outside of the lottery.”
While not everyone agrees on how many players make up the top tier of the 2022 draft class, Ivey has frequently been included in that group alongside the three big men, making him the odds-on favorite to be picked fourth overall. However, there are a number of reasons why the Kings may be inclined to pass on the opportunity to select him.
For one, Sacramento badly wants to make the playoffs and might prefer to use the No. 4 pick to trade for win-now pieces. Additionally, Ivey may not be an ideal fit next to De’Aaron Fox, since both are offense-first guards who aren’t great outside shooters or defenders. On top of all that, a report this week suggested Sacramento isn’t Ivey’s preferred landing spot.
Still, the Kings won’t trade the pick if they don’t like the return, according to Wojnarowski.
“Sacramento’s asking price is going to be significant to move in there,” Woj said. “I think they see this as essentially a four-player draft — there’s a drop-off after No. 4.”
The teams mentioned by Wojnarowski as potential trade partners would all make sense as landing spots for Ivey. He’d fit nicely next to Cade Cunningham in Detroit or Tyrese Haliburton in Indiana, given the size and versatility of those guards. The Knicks and Wizards, meanwhile, are in the market for a long-term solution at the point guard spot and could view Ivey as the answer.
Quinton Mayo reported on his Substack this week that the Wizards’ front office is “really high” on Ivey and has spent a good amount of time exploring trade-up scenarios.
2022 NBA Offseason Preview: Phoenix Suns
Although the Suns finished the 2019/20 season by winning eight straight games, it was still their sixth straight season under .500, so when they followed it up by going 51-21 and making the NBA Finals in ’20/21, it came as a major surprise.
That ’20/21 performance put the Suns firmly in the conversation as contenders heading into ’21/22, meaning they didn’t catch anyone off guard with another hot start last fall. But not many league observers expected that hot streak to essentially last the entire regular season, as the club took yet another significant step forward by winning an NBA-high 64 games.
Phoenix’s rise came to an abrupt halt in the second round of the postseason, when the team failed to slow down Luka Doncic and fell to the underdog Mavericks in seven games. It cast a shadow over what was otherwise a terrific year and raises questions about where the club goes from here.
Are more roster upgrades needed to seriously contend for a title, or was this a championship-caliber team that just had a bad series? And how will Chris Paul‘s age, Deandre Ayton‘s free agency, and the ongoing investigation into team owner Robert Sarver‘s alleged workplace misconduct factor into the Suns’ outlook going forward?
The Suns’ Offseason Plan:
Let’s start with Ayton, the Suns’ only core player who isn’t already under contract for the 2022/23 season. He’ll be eligible for restricted free agency this offseason after failing to agree to an extension with the team last fall. Even though Phoenix was unwilling to give Ayton a five-year, maximum-salary contract a year ago, there had long been an expectation that the two sides would have an easier time reaching an agreement this summer — if not a max deal, then something very close to it.
However, since the night the Suns were eliminated from the playoffs – in a Game 7 in which Ayton was benched after playing just 17 minutes – one report after another has suggested that the big man’s return to Phoenix won’t be a foregone conclusion after all. Multiple reporters have identified the former No. 1 overall pick as potentially the biggest name to change teams this summer.
Ayton’s free agency will be fascinating for a few reasons. For one, despite the fact that the Suns apparently aren’t enthusiastic about paying Ayton $30MM+ per year on his next deal, all of those aforementioned reports have been adamant that the team won’t just let him walk away for nothing and will look to negotiate a sign-and-trade deal.
Given that so few teams have the ability to create enough cap space to sign Ayton outright, perhaps that’s how his free agency will play out. But it would be fascinating to see how Phoenix would respond if a rival suitor signs Ayton to a four-year max offer sheet. Would the Suns match it and plan on potentially trading Ayton down the road, despite the fact that his salary would put them well over the luxury tax line for the time being? The potential for a game of free agency “chicken” here is intriguing.
If the Suns do engage in sign-and-trade talks for Ayton, those negotiations will be complicated by the fact that base year compensation rules will apply to his new contract. On a maximum-salary deal, Ayton’s outgoing salary from Phoenix’s perspective would be just $15.25MM, while his incoming salary for a new team would be $30.5MM. Bridging that gap and making sure both teams are adhering to the NBA’s salary-matching rules will be tricky if Ayton’s new team is over the cap.
It’s virtually unprecedented for a free agent of Ayton’s caliber to accept his qualifying offer rather than negotiating a longer-term contract, but no player coming off a rookie scale contract has ever been eligible for a qualifying offer as lucrative as Ayton’s ($16.4MM), so it’s worth mentioning as a fallback option. If he were to accept that one-year QO, Ayton would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2023. It’s a long shot, but if the Suns play hardball with possible sign-and-trade partners and Ayton decides he doesn’t want to stay in Phoenix, it’s an option.
Based on the reporting to date, it sounds like the Suns’ preferred outcome would be to replace Ayton with a starting-caliber player earning in the $15-20MM range and to not spend maximum-salary money on their starting center. We’ll see if the right opportunity arises – for both Ayton and the Suns – to make that happen.
While resolving Ayton’s contract situation will be their top priority, the Suns will have to address their backup slots at point guard and center, where Aaron Holiday, Elfrid Payton, JaVale McGee, and Bismack Biyombo are all eligible for free agency. How Phoenix approaches those spots will depend in part on whether Ayton returns — or possibly on how much salary the team takes back in an Ayton sign-and-trade.
Sarver doesn’t have a reputation as an owner who spends big on player salaries and likely won’t be particularly enthusiastic about going deep into tax territory, so if Phoenix projects to be a taxpayer, I’d count on the team filling out its depth chart at point guard and center primarily with minimum-salary signings. If Ayton doesn’t return, the club would have more flexibility below the luxury tax line, opening the door to use its mid-level exception and perhaps to re-sign players like Holiday and McGee, who should command more than the minimum.
Devin Booker, Cameron Johnson, and Dario Saric are among the other Suns worth keeping an eye this offseason.
Booker qualified for a super-max contract extension when he made an All-NBA team this spring. If the Suns put a super-max offer on the table, it would add four more years to the two remaining on his current deal, starting at 35% of the 2024/25 cap. Even if we project a relatively conservative $130MM cap for ’24/25, that super-max contract would be worth in excess of $50MM per year.
There’s no guarantee the Suns move forward on that extension immediately, but it would cover Booker’s prime years (starting with his age-28 season) and Paul’s contract would be coming off the books by that point, so it would make sense for the two sides to get it done this summer.
Johnson will be eligible for a rookie scale extension this offseason and has probably earned a deal at least in the range of what fellow sharpshooter Kevin Huerter got from Atlanta a year ago (four years, $65MM). The Suns don’t necessarily have to push to finalize an agreement with Johnson before the 2022/23 season, since he’d be a restricted free agent next summer. But if they can get a relatively team-friendly price, like they did with Mikal Bridges, it’s worth pursuing.
Saric, meanwhile, will be returning from a torn ACL as he enters the final year of his contract. His $9.2MM expiring deal makes him a logical trade candidate, either in a salary-dump deal or in a package for a rotation player. However, at least one recent report suggested Phoenix is hopeful Saric can return to form as a frontcourt piece who can stretch the floor, and may not be looking to move him after all.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap figures are based on the league’s latest projection ($122MM) for 2022/23.
Guaranteed Salary
Devin Booker ($33,833,400)- Chris Paul ($28,400,000)
- Mikal Bridges ($20,100,000)
- Jae Crowder ($10,183,800)
- Landry Shamet ($9,500,000)
- Dario Saric ($9,240,000)
- Cameron Payne ($6,000,000)
- Cameron Johnson ($5,887,899)
- Torrey Craig ($5,121,951)
- Total: $128,267,050
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- None
Restricted Free Agents
- Deandre Ayton ($16,422,835 qualifying offer / $31,582,375 cap hold): Bird rights
- Aaron Holiday ($5,791,702 qualifying offer / $11,941,653 cap hold): Bird rights
- Ish Wainright ($1,816,044 qualifying offer / $1,816,044 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total (cap holds): $45,340,072
Two-Way Free Agents
- Gabriel Lundberg ($1,616,044 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $1,616,044
Draft Picks
- None
Extension-Eligible Players
Note: These are players who are either already eligible for an extension or will become eligible before the 2022/23 season begins.
- Devin Booker (veteran)
- Jae Crowder (veteran)
- Cameron Johnson (rookie scale)
- Dario Saric (veteran)
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
- JaVale McGee ($6,000,000 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Bismack Biyombo ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Elfrid Payton ($1,811,516 cap hold): Non-Bird rights
- Total: $9,623,032
Offseason Cap Outlook
With $128MM in guaranteed money committed to nine players, the Suns will, at the very least, operate over the projected $122MM cap in 2022/23.
The Ayton situation will dictate whether they end up over the projected tax line ($149MM) as well, but that looks like a good bet at this point — even if Ayton doesn’t return, Phoenix could end up taking on upwards of $20MM in salary in a sign-and-trade deal.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Taxpayer mid-level exception: $6,392,000 1
Footnotes
- This is a projected value. The Suns could instead have access to the full mid-level exception ($10,349,000) and bi-annual exception ($4,050,000) if they remain below the tax apron.
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders and RealGM was used in the creation of this post.
Celtics Notes: Brown, Tatum, Finals Loss, Offseason
Although multiple Celtics players indicated in their post-game comments on Thursday night that their NBA Finals loss was a painful one, they did their best to frame their playoff run to within two games of a title as a positive experience and one they can build upon heading into next season, writes Tim Bontemps of ESPN.
“The future is bright,” Jaylen Brown said. “I always look at adversity as opportunities to shape an individual. For whatever reason, it wasn’t our time. That means we still got a lot to learn. Personally, I still got a lot to learn. For me, it’s always about growth. Continuing to get better, continuing to find different ways to lead. That’s what it’s about. The future is bright. I’m excited to get back next year.”
As Bontemps details in another ESPN story, Brown and Jayson Tatum accomplished a rare feat this season, becoming just the fourth 25-and-under duo to be the two top scorers on an NBA Finals team. Oddly, Bontemps notes, none of the other three duos (Hakeem Olajuwon and Ralph Sampson; Shaquille O’Neal and Penny Hardaway; and Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook) ever made it back to the Finals together.
Brown and Tatum will be hoping to avoid a similar fate, and Bontemps believes they’re well positioned to do so, since all of Boston’s core players are locked up for multiple seasons.
Here’s more out of Boston:
- Head coach Ime Udoka believes the Warriors’ experience and on-court intelligence were deciding factors in the NBA Finals and sees room for the Celtics to improve in those areas. “I think the biggest part for us is the IQ section,” Udoka said, per Jay King of The Athletic. “That’s where we saw a huge difference in consistency with us and Golden State, just the little things that experience only can teach you. … A team like Golden State who has been there, done that. It was evident in a lot of ways.”
- Jayson Tatum suffered a shoulder stinger during the Eastern Conference Finals, but declined to cite that injury as a reason for his up-and-down production (.367 FG%) in the Finals, according to Joe Vardon of The Athletic.
- Udoka said he believes this series will go a long way toward helping Tatum adjust to being guarded like an All-NBA player going forward, Vardon writes in the same article. “This is only the start of how you’re going to be guarded and the attention you’re going to draw,” Udoka said. “I think this is the next step for him. Figuring that out, getting to where some of the veterans are that have seen everything and took their lumps early in their careers.”
- In his Celtics offseason preview, Bobby Marks of ESPN (Insider link) acknowledges that some teams in recent years have been burned by relying on roster continuity, but argues that it wouldn’t be a mistake for Boston to do so, given that the team’s two stars still have room to improve and the right complementary pieces are in place.
Southwest Notes: Mavs, Dragic, Rockets, Pelicans, Spurs
The Mavericks intend to explore the possibility of signing veteran guard Goran Dragic in free agency this offseason, sources tell Marc Stein (Twitter link).
Dragic and the Mavericks have frequently been linked in the past, in large part due to Luka Doncic‘s presence in Dallas. Doncic and Dragic, who are both from Slovenia, have played together in international competitions and appear to have interest in teaming up in the NBA as well.
Dragic will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason and the Mavericks project to have more open roster spots than expected after agreeing to a four-for-one trade for Christian Wood. Trey Burke will be one of the outgoing pieces in that deal, so even if Jalen Brunson re-signs with Dallas, the club could use another point guard for depth purposes.
Here’s more from around the Southwest:
- Auburn big man Jabari Smith was straightforward in explaining why he hasn’t felt the need to visit with the Rockets in the weeks leading up to the 2022 NBA draft, as Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle relays. The Rockets hold the No. 3 pick in the draft, but Smith only visited the Magic (No. 1) and Thunder (No. 2). “I don’t see myself falling below two,” Smith said. “Just keeping that mindset going into to it, that’s kind of my mindset. That’s why I kept it to those two.”
- In a pair of stories for The Athletic, Will Guillory explores how the Pelicans‘ strategy in the draft has evolved since David Griffin was hired in 2019, and answers mailbag questions about the No. 8 pick and potential trade candidates on the roster. Guillory doesn’t think New Orleans will aggresively try to move Devonte’ Graham, but expects the team to gauge his market to see what’s out there.
- Purdue’s Sasha Stefanovic indicated on his Instagram story today that he’s in San Antonio to work out for the Spurs, tweets James Boyd of The Indianapolis Star. Stefanovic doesn’t show up on ESPN’s list of 2022’s top 100 prospects, making him a long shot to be drafted.
Draft Notes: Rockets, Nuggets, Green Room, Houstan, Sharpe, Roddy
Now that they’re poised to add the No. 26 pick to their list of draft assets, the Rockets are looking into the possibility of trading up in the draft, Kevin O’Connor of The Ringer reports within his latest mock draft. According to O’Connor, Houston has inquired about moving up from No. 3 into one of the top two spots in the draft, and has also explored the possibility of moving up from No. 17 into the late lottery.
Like Houston, the Nuggets have agreed to acquire an extra first-round pick (No. 30) and are trying to package it with No. 21 in order to move into the middle of the first round, O’Connor writes. However, O’Connor expects Denver to have to add a young player or a future asset to its package in order to make any real headway.
O’Connor’s newest mock draft includes a few more interesting tidbits, including his suggestion that there’s still some “chatter” about teams trying to trade for the Magic‘s No. 1 overall pick.
Here are a few more draft-related updates:
- Five more players have been invited to the green room for next Thursday’s draft, reports Jonathan Givony of ESPN (Twitter link). Tari Eason, Jalen Williams, TyTy Washington, MarJon Beauchamp, and Jaden Hardy received invites, joining an initial list of 16 invitees. Of the 21 players invited to the green room, only Hardy (No. 22) and Beauchamp (No. 23) are outside of the top 21 prospects on ESPN’s big board.
- Michigan’s Caleb Houstan, one of the only prospects to decline a combine invite this year, worked out this week for the Grizzlies and Nuggets, a source tells Givony (Twitter link). Those two teams control the last two picks of the first round.
- Kentucky’s Shaedon Sharpe told reporters today that the Spurs, Thunder, and Magic are among the teams he has worked out for in the pre-draft process, tweets Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington. Sharpe will work out for the Pacers on Monday, a source tells James Boyd of The Indianapolis Star (Twitter link).
- Colorado State forward David Roddy still has workouts coming up with the Thunder and Celtics, tweets Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News. By the time draft night arrives, Roddy will have visited “half the league,” Wolfson adds.