2025/26 NBA Over/Unders: Southwest Division
With the 2025/26 NBA regular season just around the corner, we’re getting serious about predictions for the upcoming campaign and continuing an annual Hoops Rumors tradition.
With the help of the lines from a series of sports betting sites – including BetMGM and BetOnline – we’re running through the predicted win totals for each of the NBA’s 30 teams, by division. In a series of team-by-team polls, you’ll get the chance to weigh in on whether you think those forecasts are too optimistic or too pessimistic.
In 2024/25, our voters went 13-17 on their over/under picks. Can we top that in ’25/26?
We’ll wrap up our series today with the Southwest Division…
Houston Rockets
- 2024/25 record: 52-30
- Over/under for 2025/26: 52.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
How many games will the Rockets win in 2025/26?
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Over 52.5 56% (166)
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Under 52.5 44% (133)
Total votes: 299
San Antonio Spurs
- 2024/25 record: 34-48
- Over/under for 2025/26: 44.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
How many games will the Spurs win in 2025/26?
-
Over 44.5 58% (166)
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Under 44.5 42% (122)
Total votes: 288
Dallas Mavericks
- 2024/25 record: 39-43
- Over/under for 2025/26: 41.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
- Added: Cooper Flagg, D’Angelo Russell
- Lost: Spencer Dinwiddie, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Kai Jones
How many games will the Mavericks win in 2025/26?
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Over 41.5 72% (214)
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Under 41.5 28% (84)
Total votes: 298
Memphis Grizzlies
- 2024/25 record: 48-34
- Over/under for 2025/26: 39.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
How many games will the Grizzlies win in 2025/26?
-
Under 39.5 61% (171)
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Over 39.5 39% (108)
Total votes: 279
New Orleans Pelicans
- 2024/25 record: 21-61
- Over/under for 2025/26: 30.5 wins
- Major offseason moves:
How many games will the Pelicans win in 2025/26?
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Under 30.5 55% (146)
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Over 30.5 45% (120)
Total votes: 266
Previous voting results:
- New York Knicks (53.5 wins): Over (63.2%)
- Boston Celtics (42.5 wins): Over (52.7%)
- Philadelphia 76ers (42.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
- Toronto Raptors (37.5 wins): Over (50.2%)
- Brooklyn Nets (20.5 wins): Over (54.4%)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (56.5 wins): Over (58.0%)
- Detroit Pistons (46.5 wins): Over (60.5%)
- Milwaukee Bucks (42.5 wins): Over (74.4%)
- Indiana Pacers (37.5 wins): Over (50.1%)
- Chicago Bulls (32.5 wins): Over (60.8%)
- Orlando Magic (51.5 wins): Over (52.8%)
- Atlanta Hawks (47.5 wins): Over (54.9%)
- Miami Heat (37.5 wins): Over (54.4%)
- Charlotte Hornets (27.5 wins): Over (50.6%)
- Washington Wizards (21.5 wins): Under (62.4%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (62.5 wins): Over (62.9%)
- Denver Nuggets (53.5 wins): Over (72.1%)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (49.5 wins): Over (58.7%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (34.5 wins): Over (57.1%)
- Utah Jazz (18.5 wins): Over (55.3%)
- Los Angeles Clippers (48.5 wins): Under (58.7%)
- Los Angeles Lakers (48.5 wins): Under (52.1%)
- Golden State Warriors (46.5 wins): Over (68.3%)
- Sacramento Kings (34.5 wins): Over (55.1%)
- Phoenix Suns (31.5 wins): Under (56.8%)
Thunder Sign Erik Reynolds, Cut Buddy Boeheim
The Thunder continue to churn players through their 21st roster spot ahead of the season, announcing today that they’ve waived guard Buddy Boeheim and signed guard Erik Reynolds to replace him.
A former Syracuse standout, Boeheim appeared in 20 NBA regular season games for the Pistons from 2022-24 while on two-way contracts. He spent last season with the Oklahoma City Blue in the G League and averaged 12.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists in 26.3 minutes per game across 40 outings. Known as a floor-spacer, the 25-year-old knocked down 37.7% of 9.2 three-point attempts per game for the Blue in 2024/25.
Boeheim, who just signed an Exhibit 10 contract with the Thunder on Tuesday, is a safe bet to return to OKC’s G League affiliate this fall. He’ll earn an $85,300 bonus on top of his standard NBAGL salary as long as he spends at least 60 days with the Blue.
Reynolds, meanwhile, is joining the Thunder after going undrafted out of Saint Joseph’s in June. As a senior in 2024/25, he averaged 16.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, and 2.6 APG in 33.9 MPG, but struggled with his shot, making just 38.0% from the floor and 29.8% from beyond the arc. He had been a 37.0% three-point shooter in his first three college seasons.
Reynolds – who left Saint Joseph’s as the school’s all-time leader in several statistical categories, including points – played for the Thunder’s Summer League team in Salt Lake City and Las Vegas in July. He appears likely to join Boeheim with the Oklahoma City Blue as an affiliate player.
Warriors Waive Marques Bolden, Taevion Kinsey
The Warriors have cut two players from their preseason roster, announcing today in a press release that center Marques Bolden and guard Taevion Kinsey have been placed on waivers (Twitter link).
Bolden and Kinsey both signed Exhibit 10 contracts with Golden State at the start of training camp and were with the team through four preseason games.
Bolden, who has appeared in 18 total NBA regular season games for Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Charlotte since making his debut in 2020, saw action in two preseason contests for the Warriors. The 27-year-old out of Duke put up nine points and four rebounds in 11 total minutes of action.
Kinsey, who went undrafted out of Marshall in 2023, has signed two Exhibit 10 deals, a two-way contract, and a 10-day contract with Utah since then, but has yet to appear in an NBA regular season game. The 6’5″ wing saw limited action in three of Golden State’s preseason matchups, going scoreless in 13 total minutes with a pair of rebounds and an assist.
The Santa Cruz Warriors – Golden State’s G League affiliate – made trades this offseason to acquire Bolden’s and Kinsey’s returning rights, so it’s a safe bet that both players will end up in Santa Cruz this fall. They’d each earn a bonus worth $85,300 by spending at least 60 days with the Warriors’ affiliate.
Golden State now has two open spots on its 21-man preseason roster.
Injury Notes: Garland, Suggs, Adebayo, Bucks, Pacers, Thiero
Cavaliers point guard Darius Garland took an important step forward in his recovery from toe surgery by participating in a 5-on-5 contact scrimmage on Tuesday, writes Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (subscription required). While head coach Kenny Atkinson referred to as a positive development, he cautioned that it doesn’t mean Garland’s return is imminent.
“It was live. It was very short,” Atkinson said. “Now let’s see what tomorrow looks like. What does the recovery look like? We know this is not an easy injury to come back from. It’s just not. You see what happens in the NFL with this injury. It’s not linear, usually, the return to performance, and we’re hoping it will be and he’ll progress. But I side on the side of being conservative and making sure. This is a good step today. A small step but a good step.”
Sources who have spoken to Fedor have maintained that Garland still could miss the first 10-15 games of the regular season. With their starting point guard expected to be unavailable when the season tips off, the Cavs intend to start Sam Merrill in the backcourt alongside Donovan Mitchell, who will take on more ball-handling responsibilities, says Fedor.
We have several more injury-related updates from around the NBA:
- Magic guard Jalen Suggs did “a little bit” of contact work on Tuesday in a 3-on-3 setting, head coach Jamahl Mosley told reporters, including Jason Beede of The Orlando Sentinel (subscription required). It’s unclear whether Suggs will be able to play in Orlando’s remaining preseason game on Thursday or if he’ll be ready for the season opener next Wednesday.
- Heat big man Bam Adebayo exited Monday’s preseason game early due to a knee injury, but it’s just a contusion and wasn’t serious enough to require an MRI, according to Barry Jackson of The Miami Herald (Twitter link). While it remains to be seen if Adebayo will suit up in the team’s preseason finale on Friday, it sounds like he should fine for the start of the season.
- After Myles Turner (right calf soreness) and Gary Harris (right hamstring strain) sat out the Bucks‘ last preseason game on Tuesday, head coach Doc Rivers downplayed Turner’s issue and suggested he’ll be ready for the start of the season, but said Harris’ hamstring injury will likely sideline him for a week or two, per Eric Nehm of The Athletic (Twitter links).
- The injuries that Pacers reserves Johnny Furphy (left ankle sprain) and Quenton Jackson (right hamstring soreness) are dealing with aren’t “serious,” according to head coach Rick Carlisle, but there’s no guarantee either player will be ready for opening night. “There’s a chance they could be back for the opening of the season, but I don’t know how big of a chance,” Carlisle said, according to Dustin Dopirak of The Indianapolis Star. The Pacers’ coach added Ben Sheppard, who has been out with an undisclosed injury, is “trending in a good direction” and could be available on Friday for the club’s preseason finale.
- Lakers rookie Adou Thiero remains sidelined due to swelling in his knee but has progressed to on-court activities, the team announced on Tuesday (Twitter link via Dan Woike of The Athletic). The Lakers added that Thiero will be reevaluated in approximately two or three weeks.
Hawks’ Porzingis: No Rush For Contract Extension
Hawks forward/center Kristaps Porzingis is currently eligible for a contract extension after being traded to Atlanta over the summer. However, he tells Fred Katz of The Athletic that he’s in no hurry to get a new deal done.
“I know that’s an option,” Porzingis said of a potential extension. “I wanna see how the year goes. I wanna show that I’m playing at a high level again, that I’m healthy, that I’m everything, and then that kind of stuff will take care of itself, you know? We’ll see. … I don’t wanna rush anything and say this or that, but I wanna take it one day at a time.”
Porzingis is earning roughly $30.7MM in 2025/26, which is the final season of a two-year, $60MM extension he signed with the Celtics in 2023. He completed the deal almost immediately after being traded to Boston, but this time around, he and the Hawks didn’t immediately look to work out a post-trade extension.
While Porzingis’ comments suggest he’s happy to wait on a new contract, it also doesn’t sound as if Atlanta is necessarily pushing hard to get an extension done. Atlanta reportedly hasn’t aggressively looked to extend Trae Young either as he enters a potential contract year (Young holds a player option for 2026/27). The front office, led by new general manager Onsi Saleh may be taking a wait-and-see approach to the current roster in the hopes of evaluating how the new pieces fit together over the course of the season.
For his part, Porzingis is optimistic about the Hawks’ new-look roster and his place on it.
“I was really happy that I could end up in a place like this, playing with these young guys, playing with Trae, who’s one of the best passers in the league,” he told Katz. “It’s an exciting situation for me. … I’m very, very happy.”
Porzingis averaged 19.5 points and 6.8 rebounds in 28.8 minutes per game last season for the Celtics, posting an impressive shooting line of .483/.412/.809. However, he was limited to 42 games due to various health issues, including an illness that limited his availability during the second half and continued to affected him in the postseason. The 30-year-old put up just 7.7 points and 4.6 rebounds in 20.9 minutes per game on .316/.154/.689 shooting during Boston’s playoff run, but tells Katz that illness is no longer an issue.
“I just didn’t have the engine that I usually have,” the big man said. “… As soon as I got some rest and got back in shape with the (Latvian) national team, I’m feeling great. I feel awesome now.”
Players with multiple years left on their contracts who are eligible for veteran extensions have until Monday to finalize agreements. But because he’s on an expiring deal, Porzingis will be eligible to sign an extension with the Hawks until June 30, 2026. The same goes for Young, assuming he declines his ’26/27 player option as part of an agreement.
That means Atlanta will have the ability to weigh its options during the season and even into the spring — the team could try to work out extensions with Porzingis and Young later in the 2025/26 league year to keep them off the free agent market.
Jalen Green To Miss Start Of Season With Hamstring Injury
Jalen Green won’t be ready to make his Suns debut when the team’s regular season schedule opens next Wednesday, according to head coach Jordan Ott. Prior to Tuesday’s preseason finale against the Lakers, Ott told reporters – including Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic – that Green aggravated the hamstring injury he sustained early in training camp.
“We all know the soft tissue injuries are really hard to see exactly the progress,” Ott said. “Obviously it’s frustrating, but this is all part of it. Thankfully we caught it early, it’s not that serious, but he wants to be out there. New teammates, new system. There’s just other ways. We’re going to have to speed him up. That’s the reality of it. He did a great job in the China trip hanging in there with us.”
Ott initially described Green’s injury in early October as a “low grade” hamstring strain. The reaggravation occurred during the team’s trip to China for a pair of exhibition games against Brooklyn, preventing the newly acquired guard from suiting up in any of Phoenix’s four preseason contests.
Green will be reevaluated in 10 days, Ott said on Tuesday. That means he’ll miss the team’s regular season opener against Sacramento next Wednesday, but might have a chance to play in one game of a back-to-back set next Friday and Saturday against the Clippers and Nuggets.
Green spent the first four years of his NBA career in Houston before being sent to Phoenix along with Dillon Brooks in the blockbuster Kevin Durant trade over the summer. Injuries were rarely an issue for the former No. 2 overall pick during his time as a Rocket — he has appeared in all 82 regular season games in each of the past two seasons and hasn’t missed a game since February 2023.
Suns center Mark Williams also didn’t play in any of the club’s four preseason contests, but that was part of a plan designed to ramp him up for the start of the regular season. He has been playing live 5-on-5, Ott said on Tuesday, per Rankin.
While they rested some of their regulars on Tuesday, the Suns have been rolling with a starting lineup of Devin Booker, Brooks, Grayson Allen, Ryan Dunn, and Oso Ighodaro for most of the preseason. Williams would presumably replace Ighodaro if he’s ready to go for the start of the season, while Green would likely step in for either Allen or Dunn once he’s cleared to return.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Says He Wants To Finish Career In Greece
After speaking in more general terms last month about the possibility of suiting up for a team in the EuroLeague before retiring as a player, Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo stated more plainly during an appearance on a Greek late-night talk show called The 2night Show that he’d like to finish his career in his home country.
“I’m 30 years old,” Antetokounmpo said, per BasketNews. “I can play in the NBA until I’m 36, 38. I’d like to end my career in a Greek team, why not? I don’t want to live in the United States. As soon as I leave the NBA, I want to return to Greece. I could end my career here, whether this team is called Filathlitikos, Olympiacos, Panathinaikos, or Aris, I’m talking about all the teams now.”
It’s not uncommon for NBA players – especially ones who were born overseas – to spend the twilight years of their careers in Europe. However, it’s a much rarer occurrence for a player of Antetokounmpo’s caliber.
Still, it’s worth noting that Antetokounmpo played for Filathlitikos from 2011-13 before being drafted and that he has long made it a priority to represent Greece in international competitions. Last month, he referred to winning a EuroBasket bronze medal this summer with the Greek national team as his “greatest accomplishment” as an athlete, despite his NBA championship and two NBA MVP awards.
Whether Antetokounmpo eventually plays in Greece remains to be seen, but his NBA future over the next few years could be determined in large part by how the Bucks’ 2025/26 season plays out.
Although the star forward has repeatedly expressed a desire to win another championship in Milwaukee, his comments have also strongly suggested that competing for another championship is a greater priority than spending his entire career as a Buck. If Milwaukee’s season ends early again next spring following three consecutive first-round exits in 2023, 2024, and 2025, Giannis will likely weigh his options more seriously as he prepares to enter a potential contract year.
Jazz Waive Max Abmas, Cameron McGriff
The Jazz have cut a pair of players on non-guaranteed contracts, announcing today in a press release that they’ve placed guard Max Abmas and forward Cameron McGriff on waivers.
Abmas and McGriff signed Exhibit 10 contracts with Utah on October 6 and were with the team for its first three games of the preseason, though neither player saw the court in any of those contests.
Abmas spent his first professional season in 2024/25 playing for the Salt Lake City Stars, the Jazz’s G League affiliate. Across 50 outings in the Tip-Off Tournament and regular season, he averaged 13.8 points, 4.8 assists, and 3.0 rebounds in 26.4 minutes per game, posting a shooting line of .412/.372/.836.
McGriff has been playing professionally since going undrafted out of Oklahoma State in 2020, having spent time with a handful of G League teams and non-NBA clubs in Belgium, Puerto Rico, Greece, France since then. The 28-year-old also had a brief cup of coffee in the NBA in 2021/22, appearing in three games for Portland on a 10-day contract. He spent last season with the Indiana Mad Ants – the Pacers’ G League team – but had his returning rights traded to Salt Lake City during the offseason.
It seems relatively safe to assume both Abmas and McGriff are headed for the Stars as returning-rights players. If they remain with the Jazz’s NBAGL team for at least 60 days, they’ll each earn a bonus worth $85,300.
Utah now has two open spots on its 21-man preseason roster. It sounds like the team will probably use one of those openings to sign Pedro Bradshaw to an Exhibit 10 deal.
Northwest Notes: SGA, Bailey, Dillingham, Miller, Cooke
Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t see himself playing until he’s 40 like current stars LeBron James and Chris Paul, he said within a GQ Sports cover story, per Yang-Yi Goh (subscription required).
“I definitely think I can,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “I won’t, though. A hundred percent.”
The reigning MVP just turned 27 in July, so he certainly has time to change his mind between now and the final years of his NBA career. However, he went on to explain that family considerations would be the main reason why he doesn’t think he’d want to extend his playing days that long.
“I won’t want to miss that much of my kid’s life,” he told Goh. “I won’t want to be away and miss his first basketball game every year, his first soccer game, football game, piano lesson, chess lesson, whatever it is. And there’s a certain point in your career where you reach your peak.
“I don’t fault guys for still playing. They love the game. But I just feel like I play this game, ultimately, to see what the best version of me can be. Once I figure that out and I start going down, then it’s like, Okay, well, what am I playing for now? As soon as that happens, I’ll be on the first ship out.”
Here’s more from around the Northwest Division:
- Jazz rookie Ace Bailey is dealing with “some tendonitis” in both of his knees, Will Hardy said after the No. 5 overall pick was removed from Monday’s game vs. Portland. However, Utah’s head coach didn’t sound overly concerned about the issue. “He’s not going to be getting imaged or anything like that,” Hardy told reporters, including Andy Larsen of The Salt Lake Tribune (Twitter link). “It’s just trying to take care of him. He was a little sore during his second stint (on the court).”
- After playing a limited role as a rookie, second-year Timberwolves guard Rob Dillingham is working on making the adjustments necessary to earn more regular minutes in 2025/26, as Chris Hine of The Star Tribune details. “I want to play,” Dillingham said. “So whatever I got to do to play, whatever (head coach Chris Finch) wants me to do — pass the ball, pick up (on defense), I’m just gonna have to do.” Finch offered more details on what he and the staff have told Dillingham to focus on: “Be ready to make shots off the ball, particularly when you’re playing out there alongside guys like Julius and Ant who are going to have the ball in their hands a lot. Keep it simple and use your speed, which is what we need you to do and what you have naturally comes to you.”
- Timberwolves forward Leonard Miller, who suffered a finger injury early in training camp, was cleared for full-contact, five-on-five basketball activities on Monday, the team announced in a press release. Miller started on Monday against the Guangzhou Loong Lions and played well in a Minnesota blowout, racking up 15 points and 11 rebounds in 23 minutes of action.
- The Oklahoma City Blue and Rip City Remix have completed a trade, tweets Rylan Stiles of SI.com. The Thunder‘s G League affiliate acquired the returning rights for Isaac Nogues and Henri Drell, along with a 2026 second-round pick, from the Trail Blazers‘ affiliate, in exchange for Javonte Cooke‘s returning rights. Cooke signed an Exhibit 10 contract with Portland two weeks ago, while Nogues and Drell are currently playing overseas.
Nets Sign Malachi Smith
The Nets have signed free agent guard Malachi Smith, the team announced today (Twitter link via Brian Lewis of The New York Post).
Smith, 25, has been playing in the G League since going undrafted out of Gonzaga in 2023. He was with the Rip City Remix and Wisconsin Herd during his rookie year and spent the 2024/25 campaign with the Memphis Hustle, appearing in 46 total games for the Grizzlies’ G League affiliate.
Smith averaged 11.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 3.1 assists in 25.3 minutes per game for the Hustle last season, making 50.1% of his shots from the field, including 34.7% from beyond the three-point line.
The Long Island Nets acquired Smith’s returning rights from Memphis last month, so it’s a pretty safe bet that the plan is for him to be waived in the coming days and then report to Long Island for the G League season. He’ll likely receive a small partial guarantee as part of the arrangement.
While most players who are ticketed for their teams’ NBAGL affiliates sign Exhibit 10 contracts, the Nets have been structuring their deals a little differently this fall since they don’t mind having the bonuses they pay those players count against their cap as they look to reach the NBA’s minimum salary floor. Exhibit 10 bonuses don’t carry a cap hit, but partial guarantees do.
For instance, as Keith Smith of Spotrac tweets, when signing with the Nets on Monday, Tre Scott received a standard contract with a $45K partial guarantee, while Terry Roberts got a $25K partial guarantee on his standard deal. Both Scott and Roberts were waived today, per Lewis, but those partial guarantees will continue to count against Brooklyn’s cap.