Community Shootaround: New York Knicks
After missing the playoffs for seven straight years, the Knicks had a surprising turnaround during the 2020/21 season under new head coach Tom Thibodeau, finishing with a 41-31 record, the No. 4 seed in the East. They ultimately fell to the Hawks in the first round, but it was still a successful season, particularly given the notable contributions from Julius Randle and RJ Barrett.
Randle was an All-Star for the first time, earned a berth on the All-NBA Second Team, and was voted Most Improved Player after averaging 24.1 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 6.0 APG on .456/.411/.811 shooting (.567 true shooting percentage). Barrett improved his numbers across the board, and his .441/.401/.746 (.535 true) shooting line was very encouraging for a player who had question marks about his jump shot.
New York had the NBA’s third-ranked defense in ’20/21, and its net rating was +2.4, ninth in the league. The team’s expected win total precisely matched its actual total, per Basketball-Reference.
Unfortunately, the Knicks had a disappointing follow-up season in ’21/22, finishing with a 37-45 record, the No. 11 seed in the East. Randle fell back to earth a bit and had several strange incidents both on and off the court, posting a disappointing .411/.308/.756 (.509 true) shooting line and lacking the same effort level defensively. Similarly, although his scoring average improved, Barrett’s efficiency got worse, posting a .408/.342/.714 (.511 true) shooting line.
The team’s offensive rating was nearly identical between the two seasons (110.6 vs. 110.4, both below average), but the defense fell to 11th in the league, with a -0.1 net rating. The Knicks’ actual win total was four less than expected, but even if they had won four more games, they still would’ve likely missed the play-in tournament (Atlanta and Charlotte both finished with 43 wins).
The Knicks’ front office recognized that they needed to make some changes and have had a busy offseason, trading away the No. 11 pick (Ousmane Dieng) to the Thunder to acquire three 2023 protected first-round picks, then flipping one (the Nuggets’ lottery-protected pick) and four second-rounders to the Hornets for the draft rights to No. 13 pick Jalen Duren.
New York then packaged Duren with Kemba Walker, receiving the Bucks’ 2025 top-four protected first-rounder from the Pistons in the deal. The Knicks also made a separate trade with Detroit, a salary dump move that sent Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel, a second-rounder and $6MM in cash in exchange for a heavily-protected second-rounder.
All of those moves gave the Knicks the cap room to sign free agent guard Jalen Brunson to a four-year, $104MM deal. They also signed center Isaiah Hartenstein to a two-year, $16MM deal and re-signed center Mitchell Robinson to a four-year, $60MM contract.
Obviously, they were heavily involved in trade rumors for three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell, who landed in Cleveland, but ultimately didn’t make the deal and I’m not going to get into that much since it’s been written about ad nauseam.
Even though the Knicks have had an active summer, former Knicks head coach and current ESPN broadcaster Jeff Van Gundy doesn’t think the team has moved the needle much with its roster moves, per Marc Berman of The New York Post.
“The Knicks have good players, but you line it up against the competition in the East, and this roster is not on the same level,” Van Gundy told Berman in a phone interview. “They could shock the world and be a playoff team, but I look at the East and I’d have to say eight to 13 is where they should be predicted. They’re not even close to a lock for the play-in. A lot has to go right.”
According to Van Gundy, the Knicks lack the top-end talent to be considered a real threat. He suggests that a turnaround and play-in berth might hinge upon a bounce-back season from Randle.
That leads us to our question of the day. Do you agree with Van Gundy’s assessment that “a lot has to go right” for the Knicks to make the play-in tournament? Head to the comments section and let us know what you think.
Kings’ Keegan Murray Cleared Following Wrist Surgery
Kings rookie Keegan Murray, the No. 4 overall pick of the 2022 draft, has been “cleared to resume all basketball activities” after undergoing right wrist surgery in July, a league source tells James Ham of ESPN 1320 (Twitter link).
Three weeks ago, Ham reported that Murray was progressing well in his recovery and was shooting again with both hands. Ham was also the first to report that Murray had surgery, characterizing it as a “minor” procedure and that Murray was expected to recovery quickly. Sean Cunningham of Fox 40 KTXL later stated that the team expected Murray to be ready for training camp, and that certainly appears to be the case.
It’s great news for both the Kings and Murray, as he flashed tantalizing two-way potential during Summer League action, winning MVP in Las Vegas. He averaged 23.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals on .500/.400/.808 shooting in his four Vegas games.
Murray also had a great run at the California Classic Summer League in San Francisco. He averaged 19.7 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.3 steals on .511/.438/1.000 shooting in three games, per RealGM.
The 22-year-old had a relatively quiet freshman season for Iowa, averaging 7.2 points and 5.2 rebounds on .506/.296/.755 shooting in 31 games (18.0 minutes). However, Murray emerged as one of the best college players in the country during the 2021/22 season, winning numerous awards after averaging 23.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.9 blocks on .554/.398/.747 shooting.
The 6’8″ forward is expected to play a major role for a Kings team that badly wants to end its 16-year playoff drought. Sacramento finished last season with a 30-52 record, 12th in the Western Conference.
And-Ones: In-Season Tournament, Cole, Alatishe, 2023 FAs
More details have emerged about a possible in-season tournament. Shams Charania of The Athletic reports that the proposed tournament would run through November, with eight teams advancing to a single-elimination round in December. All of the games would be part of the regular season schedule, with one extra game for the two finalists.
The tournament has yet to be finalized, but it could be implemented as soon as the 2023/24 season if the NBA and the Players Association agree to it, per Charania. The eight teams that advance would receive to-be-determined prizes, Charania adds.
Charania previously reported that the “Final Four” of the tournament would be held at a neutral site; it’s unclear if that’s still part of the framework. Commissioner Adam Silver has long been a proponent of an in-season tournament.
Here’s more from around the basketball world:
- Former NBA veteran Norris Cole hit a game-winning shot with 1.4 seconds left to lift Team USA past Puerto Rico at the AmeriCup on Thursday, according to an Associated Press report. “I just wanted to make a play for the team,” said Cole, who had the final eight points for the U.S. “The team trusted me, drew up a play for me to catch it and I was able to make a play. Moments like that, everybody dreams about, but I work hard at my individual game along with the team game, I was able to show my individual talent within the team concept, and it worked out.” The Americans won the quarterfinal by a score of 85-84, with Cole recording a game-high 20 points. Team USA will face Argentina in the semifinal on Saturday, with the medal-round games on Sunday, per the AP. The other semifinal features Brazil vs. Canada.
- Oregon State forward Warith Alatishe won’t return for a “super-senior” year in 2022/23 and plans to pursue a professional career instead, a source tells Jeff Goodman of Stadium (Twitter link). Alatishe spent his first two seasons at Nicholls State prior to transferring to Oregon State. He averaged 9.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.1 SPG and 1.1 BPG over the past two seasons with the Beavers.
- Keith Smith of Spotrac recently released his list of the top 50 potential 2023 free agents. No. 1 on his list? Sixers guard James Harden, followed by Nets guard Kyrie Irving. Rounding out Smith’s top 50 is Spurs wing Josh Richardson.
2023/24 Salary Cap Projection Increases By $1MM
The NBA has updated its salary cap projections for the 2023/24 season and is now forecasting a $134MM cap and a $162MM luxury tax line, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic (Twitter link), who notes that both figures are an increase of $1MM on the projections from the end of June.
The salary cap for the 2022/23 season is locked in at $123,655,000, so the cap is projected to increase by about $10.35MM. The tax line for this season is $150,267,000, so that figure is projected to increase by about $11.73MM.
We will continue to update our early ’23/24 projections for the minimum salary, maximum salary, and mid-level and bi-annual exceptions throughout the season.
According to Bobby Marks of ESPN (Twitter link), there is a 10% limit on how much the salary cap can increase from this season to next due to the “financial hardship” caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, so $136MM is the maximum possible cap for the 2023/24 season.
Given the projections for ’23/24 have increased before the ’22/23 season has even tipped off, there’s a good chance that it could increase a little more throughout the league year. That could change of course, but as of right now, it seems like a reasonable bet.
Training camps start at the end of September, with the regular season set to start on October 18.
Pelicans Sign Dereon Seabron, John Petty Jr.
The Pelicans have officially signed guards Dereon Seabron and John Petty Jr., the team announced in a press release.
According to Andrew Lopez of ESPN (Twitter link), Petty will receive an Exhibit 10 contract, while Seabron’s two-way contract, which was reported back in June, is now official. The Pelicans also confirmed that they have signed Daeqwon Plowden, who is on an Exhibit 10 deal.
Seabron, 22, was one of the top undrafted players following the 2022 NBA draft a few months ago. He averaged 17.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.4 steals during the 2021/22 season while leading North Carolina State in all four categories.
The 6’7″ guard was named the Most Improved Player in the ACC and was a second-team all-conference choice as a sophomore for the Wolfpack. Seabron most recently suited up for New Orleans during Las Vegas Summer League, averaging 8.2 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.4 in five games (18.6 minutes), per RealGM.
Petty, 23, went undrafted in 2021 after four years at Alabama. He signed an Exhibit 10 deal with the Pelicans last fall and was waived before the season, designating him as an affiliate player for their G League team, the Birmingham Squadron.
In 31 games (26.2 minutes) for the Squadron last season, he averaged 8.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Like Seabron, Petty also suited up for New Orleans during Summer League, averaging 7.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.4 steals in five games (24.0 minutes), per RealGM.
The Pelicans still have one two-way slot still open after signing Seabron. Second-round pick E.J. Liddell, who unfortunately tore his ACL during Summer League, remains unsigned.
Extension Candidate: De’Andre Hunter
This is the fourth installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at an oft-injured wing with tantalizing two-way potential.
Rundown:
The No. 4 overall pick of the 2019 draft after two college seasons at Virginia, De’Andre Hunter had a prominent role as a rookie for the Hawks, but his results were a little uneven, which is normal for first-year players. In 63 games (32.0 MPG) in 2019/20, he averaged 12.3 PPG and 4.5 RPG on .410/.355/.764 shooting (.521 true shooting percentage).
Hunter clearly worked hard on his game entering year two, as he got off to a great start, averaging 17.9 PPG and 5.6 RPG on a stellar .517/.375/.877 (.646 true) shooting line in 17 games (33.3 MPG). Unfortunately, things went downhill from there, as right knee discomfort and swelling ultimately led to arthroscopic surgery and multiple setbacks, causing Hunter to miss all but five games the rest of the regular season.
He did appear in all five games of Atlanta’s first-round playoff victory over the Knicks, but didn’t look like the same player. Hunter underwent surgery to repair a torn lateral meniscus in the same knee shortly thereafter.
Last season, Hunter had a slow start, not quite looking like himself after the meniscus tear. On November 8, he sustained a tendon injury on his right wrist, which required surgery and caused him to miss eight weeks of action (26 games).
Overall, he averaged 13.4 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .442/.379/.765 shooting (.547 true) in 53 games (29.8 MPG). The Hawks were very banged up at the end of the year, causing them to be overmatched in their first-round playoff loss to the Heat, but Hunter was the team’s best performer – he averaged 21.2 PPG and 3.8 RPG on .557/.462/.800 shooting (.674 true).
Strengths:
During that 17-game stretch to start ’20/21, Hunter legitimately looked like he could be a future All-Star, using his length and athleticism to aggressively drive to the hoop. Even though the Hawks lost the game, he had a memorable performance against the eventual champion Bucks, scoring a career-high 33 points on 13-of-21 shooting while fearlessly attacking Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Hunter has plus size for a forward at 6’8″ and 225 pounds with a 7’2″ wingspan, and he’s versatile on both ends of the court. He’s often tasked with guarding the opposing teams’ best perimeter scorers, as Atlanta has lacked reliable wing defenders.
The 24-year-old was a high draft choice in large part due to his defensive upside, and while he shows flashes of being a plus defender, he lacks the consistency necessary to be a true defensive force. The talent is definitely there though, and that’s something you can’t teach.
Hunter gets to the free throw line at a good rate, can score in a variety of ways, and was an above-average three-point shooter in ‘21/22 (37.9%). Nearly all of his attempts from long distance came via catch-and-shoot, and he converted a career-best 40.5% from the corners.
Improvement Areas:
Consistency is the name of the game for Hunter. He has shown flashes of high-level two-way potential, but he hasn’t been able to string it together consistently for any sustained period of time.
Losing time to injuries is out of his control, but it has certainly had an effect on his performance the past couple of years. In order to land a big pay day, he needs to prove that he can stay healthy.
Hunter is a below-average rebounder, and there’s no reason he can’t be better at his size. An average of 3.3 boards per game is unacceptably low for a forward. Even though he’s a versatile scorer, he only shot 55% at the rim last season — 23rd percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com.
He’s also a poor play-maker, recording more turnovers (69) than assists (68) in ‘21/22. Hunter’s 6% assist percentage was only in the 12th percentile. There’s a lot of room for improvement there.
Conclusion:
Out of all the players eligible for rookie scale extensions in 2022, Hunter’s market value is one of the most difficult to gauge due to his injury history and inconsistent play. He definitely has a lot to prove in the upcoming season, both for his own future and to the Hawks.
They’re very different players, but maybe someone like Thunder wing Luguentz Dort works as a point of comparison for Hunter – Dort signed a five-year, $82.5MM deal with a fifth-year team option as a restricted free agent this offseason. Dort is a better defender, but Hunter has more offensive upside.
Since he isn’t getting a maximum-salary deal, Atlanta can only offer Hunter four years in an extension. Dort got $64.78MM guaranteed over four years, with an additional $1MM in annual unlikely incentives.
Sources told Jake Fisher of Bleacher Report in July that the Hawks and Hunter’s agents were approximately $20MM apart in their extension discussions. Making an educated guess, I would wager Atlanta was offering around $60MM – perhaps with additional incentives tied to games played – and Hunter was looking for around $80MM.
Hunter could easily outplay a $15MM-per-year contract, but he hasn’t shown he’s worth even that much yet. Analytics are really low on Hunter’s game – I’m more bullish on his potential, assuming he can stay healthy.
I don’t see any reason for the Hawks to budge in what they’re willing to offer, and given his injury history, there are valid reasons for Hunter to consider signing a relatively team-friendly deal. If he turns down an extension and has a breakout fourth season, that’s a good problem to have for Atlanta, because he’d be providing excess value on the final year of his rookie deal and would make it an easier decision to invest in him long term.
Cavaliers Notes: Mitchell, Offseason Moves, Coaching Changes
What are the Cavaliers getting in newly-acquired star Donovan Mitchell? Cavs beat writer Kelsey Russo recently spoke to Jazz beat writer Tony Jones about that topic in an article for The Athletic.
Jones expects Mitchell’s efficiency to improve playing alongside a talented core of Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, and he believes his off-court fit will be seamless. Mitchell is an excellent three-level scorer and strong ball-handler who is able to manipulate defenses at a high level, Jones writes.
According to Jones, having less of an offensive burden should help Mitchell on the defensive end, where he’s been a net negative and “needs to get better and more competitive.” Jones also states that Mitchell has been working hard this offseason to get in better shape, which played a factor in his poor defense in the playoffs against Dallas last season.
Russo mentions the fact that Mitchell has extensive playoff experience, which Cleveland’s roster lacks. Jones notes that Mitchell’s ability to blow past defenders off the dribble is extremely valuable in the postseason, and he’s had some memorable performances against elite competition.
Here’s more from Cleveland:
- The Cavs rose to No. 8 in David Aldridge of The Athletic‘s re-ranking of offseason moves that improved teams the most. According to Aldridge, the Cavaliers took a big swing, but it could create a window of contention that the team hasn’t had without LeBron James in a couple of decades.
- Sources tell Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com (Twitter link) that the Cavs will be making a couple of changes to their coaching staff for 2022/23. Mike Gerrity, formerly a player development coach with the Cavs, will become the new head coach of their G League affiliate, the Cleveland Charge, while former Charge head coach Dan Geriot is heading back to the Cavs as an assistant. The Charge confirmed that Gerrity will be their new head coach in a press release.
- In case you missed it, Fedor reported on Wednesday that Cleveland was hosting several players for free agent workouts this week, including Armoni Brooks and Kelan Martin.
Poll: Dennis Schröder’s Next Team
Veteran point guard Dennis Schröder, currently playing for the German national team in EuroBasket action, is the only unrestricted free agent left on our list of the top 50 NBA free agents of 2022.
It’s hard to believe we’re only a year-and-a-half removed from Schröder reportedly turning down an extension from the Lakers worth $80MM+. Last summer he had to settle for a one-year, $5.9MM deal with the Celtics, who eventually traded him to the Rockets in February.
In 64 games (28.7 MPG) split between Boston and Houston during the 2021/22 season, Schröder averaged 13.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 4.6 APG on .431/.344/.853 shooting — solid production. Still, when a team trades you away in the middle of an extended hot streak and goes on to make the NBA Finals, that raises some red flags.
Schröder, who turns 29 next week, remains a talented scorer and is a plus ball-handler who can set up both himself and teammates. His ability to create shots is a valuable skill. And it’s not as though he’s past his peak physically — he’s still one of the quickest players in the league.
He’s not without flaws, however, as he’s an inconsistent outside shooter whose defensive effort often fluctuates. He also skews a little on the selfish side, preferring to look for his own shot, even though he’s a good passer when he’s so inclined.
More than two months into free agency, there aren’t many teams with roster openings, so the odds of Schröder landing a deal for more than the veteran’s minimum seem remote. Having said that, I’d be shocked if he doesn’t find a team before training camps start later this month.
Things have been pretty quiet on the rumors front. Marc Stein reported that the Lakers were giving “legit consideration” to signing Schröder a couple of weeks ago, but then they traded for Patrick Beverley, making a reunion more uncertain. A couple of high-ranking Mavericks executives recently watched Schröder compete, and Stein subsequently wrote the Mavs have considered adding a veteran ball-handler, but Dallas might not want to carry a 15th roster spot right away due to the luxury tax. All the other rumors about Schröder are months old.
Even though they haven’t been linked in any way that I’m aware of, the Hornets might make the most sense as a potential match. They only have 13 players on guaranteed deals and don’t have a backup point guard behind LaMelo Ball at the moment.
The Suns and Hawks could also be a fit. Both teams only have 13 players on guaranteed deals. Phoenix has Chris Paul and Cameron Payne at the point, but Paul is one of the oldest players in the league and Payne is coming off a down season. Schröder spent his first five seasons with the Hawks, but they already have Trae Young, Dejounte Murray and Aaron Holiday, so minutes might be harder to come by there.
With training camps less than three weeks away, we should learn pretty soon where Schröder will be headed — assuming he finds a team. In the meantime, we want to know what you think. Which team will sign Schröder in the coming weeks?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to share your two cents!
Mavericks, Knicks Eyeing Bojan Bogdanovic
The Mavericks and Knicks are among the teams with interest in Jazz veteran Bojan Bogdanovic, according to John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM (Twitter link), who states that Utah is looking for draft picks and players on expiring contracts in return.
In addition to Dallas and New York, Gambadoro reports that the Lakers and Suns remain interested in the sharpshooting forward, but he notes that the Jazz might not have as much interest in Phoenix’s first-round picks because they are expected to be one of the top teams once again in 2022/23 after having the NBA’s best record last season (64-18).
The Lakers’ interest in Bogdanovic has been well-documented, and Gambadoro reported a week ago that the Suns inquired about his services as well. Bogdanovic, who is on a $19.55MM expiring contract, is a talented scorer and shooter, averaging 18.3 PPG and 4.1 RPG on .461/.403/.860 shooting over the past four seasons. He’s currently competing in EuroBasket action with the Croatian national team.
If the Jazz are looking for expiring deals, the Mavs don’t have a clean one-for-one fit for salary-matching purposes. Reaching an extension agreement with Maxi Kleber rules him out, and it’s highly unlikely that they’d consider moving Christian Wood after just acquiring him in June.
That only leaves Dwight Powell‘s $11MM expiring deal, plus former first-rounder Josh Green and Frank Ntilikina to match salaries. Green has a team option for $4.77MM in ’23/24.
The Knicks could pull it off a little easier, at least in theory, by trading Derrick Rose‘s $14.5MM pseudo-expiring contract (team option in ’23/24) plus someone like Cam Reddish, who will make $5.95MM in the final season of his rookie deal.
As Gambadoro mentioned, either package would have to include draft picks to land the highly-coveted forward.
The Jazz are in the midst of a full-fledged rebuild after trading their two best players, three-time All-Stars Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, plus veterans Royce O’Neale and Patrick Beverley. They’ve targeted first-round picks and/or young players in all four deals.
Extension Candidate: Cameron Johnson
This is the third installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a former lottery pick who was an important role player for a 64-win team last season.
Rundown:
The Suns shocked a lot of people by selecting Cameron Johnson with the No. 11 overall pick of the 2019 draft, as many scouts had him rated as a late first-rounder. He was technically drafted by the Timberwolves, who traded him along with Dario Saric to acquire the No. 6 pick, used on Jarrett Culver – an unmitigated disaster of a deal for Minnesota.
Part of the reason Johnson was rated lower than where he was drafted was that he was an older prospect. After receiving a redshirt for his freshman year, he wound up playing a full four years afterward – he spent his first few college seasons with Pittsburgh before transferring to North Carolina.
Johnson quickly quieted those critical of the move with a solid rookie season in 2019/20, appearing in 57 games (22.0 MPG) while averaging 8.8 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .435/.390/.807 shooting (.586 true shooting percentage).
His statistics were quite similar in year two: 9.6 PPG and 3.3 RPG on .420/.346/.847 shooting (.563 true) in 60 games (24.0). He was even better during Phoenix’s lengthy postseason run to the Finals, providing a ton of value with his sharpshooting – in 21 playoff games (21.1 MPG), he averaged 8.2 PPG and 3.1 RPG on .500/.466/.906 shooting (.693 true – a phenomenal mark).
Johnson had a breakout third season in ‘21/22, finishing third in Sixth Man of the Year voting after appearing in 66 games (26.2 MPG) with averages of 12.5 PPG and 4.1 RPG on .460/.425/.860 shooting. Among non-centers who averaged at least 12 PPG in 50 or more games, Johnson was fourth in the league in true shooting percentage (.625), trailing only Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and teammate Mikal Bridges.
Despite a disappointing second-round loss to Dallas, the 26-year-old had another strong individual playoff showing offensively last season, putting up 10.8 PPG and 3.5 RPG on .465/.373/.813 shooting (.619 true) in 13 games (24.6 MPG).
Strengths:
Johnson has proven to be a very efficient role player, and more than worthy of his draft slot. His shooting creates space for teammates, which is always valuable.
While he’s primarily known for his outside shooting, which he’s very good at (39% career from three, including 43.8% from the corners), Johnson is an underrated finisher as well. He shot 71% at the rim last season, which was in the 88th percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com.
Johnson is a very self-aware player, particularly on offense. He doesn’t try to do too much, which is a good thing for a complementary player – his 6.7% turnover percentage was the 11th-best mark in the NBA in ‘21/22, per Basketball-Reference. He isn’t asked to make plays for others very often, but he makes quick decisions if he isn’t open and is a willing passer – his career assist-to-turnover ratio is 2.13-to-1, which is a strong mark for a forward.
Phoenix’s offense, which ranked fifth in the league last season, could really soar if head coach Monty Williams gives Johnson a bigger role – he thrived in 16 games as a starter in place of Jae Crowder, averaging 16.3 PPG and 4.9 RPG on .492/.420/.912 shooting (.659 true).
Improvement areas:
At 6’8″ and 210 pounds, Johnson is slender for a power forward, his primary position. He lacks the strength to defend stronger players down low – Luka Doncic repeatedly exploited that fact during the playoffs.
Most advanced stats rated Johnson as a slightly above average defender, but that doesn’t pass the eye test – in most matchups he’s not a liability, but I think he’s closer to league average than above. He does certain things well – he’s pretty quick on his feet, does a good job of staying vertical when contesting shots, and rarely commits fouls.
However, he’s a below average rebounder, and while opponents shot 1.0% worse than expected with Johnson defending them during the regular season, they shot 3.3% better than expected in the playoffs, per NBA.com. Forcing turnovers isn’t the be-all and end-all when it comes to defense, but Johnson isn’t very good at that either – he recorded 0.9 steals and 0.2 blocks per game in ‘21/22.
Adding strength would help a lot, on both ends of the court. He’s already a very good finisher, but he doesn’t get to the free throw line much – adding some muscle would aid him in that regard. And while he’s a smart decision-maker, his ball-handling is pretty mechanical.
Conclusion:
Johnson is going to land a big payday on his next contract, the only question is when and from whom. As was the case with Deandre Ayton, luxury tax concerns will likely limit Phoenix’s interest in giving Johnson a hefty long-term extension (the Suns matched Ayton’s four-year maximum-salary offer sheet from the Pacers, but they could have given him more money – and an additional year – and chose not to).
If I were representing Johnson, I wouldn’t accept a team-friendly discount in the range of $60MM over four years, because he’d provide value to any NBA team with his highly efficient offensive game and (mostly) adequate defense. Whether he might be open to that is something only he knows.
The Spurs’ Keldon Johnson received a four-year extension with a base value of $74MM, and even though he’s four years older, I think Cameron will end up getting a deal similar to that. Despite the possibility of facing the repeater tax, I would imagine Phoenix would match a contract in that range when Johnson reaches restricted free agency next summer, but I’d be a little surprised if they offer it in an extension before the season starts.
If his agents try to point to his teammate Bridges as a reference point, I think that would be a mistake – Bridges is in a completely different class as a defender and is a better overall player. He received a four-year, $90MM extension from the Suns prior to last season, so I think Johnson will get less than that. Something in the range of $70-80MM sounds about right.