Lakers Notes: Nunn, Backcourt, Westbrook, Outlook
Lakers guard Kendrick Nunn was recently cleared for increased contact in workouts, league sources tell Jovan Buha of The Athletic. Head coach Darvin Ham told reporters, including Buha, that Nunn has primarily been working on individual drills and working out in the weight room.
According to Buha, Ham also said that Nunn, Austin Reaves and Lonnie Walker are all in consideration for the starting lineup, and the trio will have “notable roles.”
Nunn, who missed all of last season with a knee issue, said he was “100%” healthy back in July, but subsequent reports from Buha have cast a cloud on his status. Still, additional contact was an important hurdle to clear for the 27-year-old, so we’ll see if he’s ready to go once the season starts next month.
Here’s more on the Lakers:
- The “combustible” pairing of Patrick Beverley and Russell Westbrook could provide the spark necessary to ignite the Lakers, or it could blow up in their faces, opines Mirjam Swanson of The Southern California Newsgroup (subscriber link). As Swanson observes, both players are well-known for being stubborn, and their previous run-ins have been well documented. Everyone in L.A. is saying the right things right now, but only their on-court play and actions will prove whether the backcourt pairing will work or not, Swanson adds.
- Westbrook needs to reinvent his game in order to make things work with the Lakers, argues Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times. Westbrook’s refusal to adjust his playing style was a primary reason why he fit so poorly with the team last season, Hernandez notes. Asking him to make drastic changes this late in his career might not be fair to the former MVP, but he’ll have to play much better defense and make offensive adjustments for the team to find success in year two, Hernandez writes.
- League insiders are pretty skeptical regarding the Lakers’ outlook for the 2022/23 season, according to Eric Pincus of Bleacher Report. One common thread brought up by the insiders was that the defense might not be good enough to hold up the poor shooting of the roster. Only one of the seven insiders Pincus spoke to was confident the Lakers would make the playoffs outright.
Eastern Notes: Harrell, Gafford, Raptors, Pistons
Sixers free agent addition Montrezl Harrell would ideally be used as a situational player rather than a primary backup center, according to Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice.com. In 71 games (23.1 MPG) split between the Wizards and Hornets last season, Harrell averaged 13.1 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 2.0 APG while shooting 64.5% from the floor and a career-high 71.6% from the line.
As Neubeck observes, Harrell will not only be reunited with former Rockets teammate James Harden, who reportedly played a major role in recruiting Harrell, but he’ll be playing under Doc Rivers once again as well — his former Clippers head coach.
Harrell won the Sixth Man of the Year award with the Clippers and Rivers a couple of years ago, but struggled defensively in the postseason, and Rivers stubbornly stuck with him. It remains to be seen whether Rivers will be more flexible with his lineups than he has been in the past, Neubeck notes.
The 28-year-old’s distinct strengths (energy, finishing at the rim) and weaknesses (size, defense) make it hard to rely on him in every matchup, but he should be well-positioned for a more defined role behind Joel Embiid, Neubeck writes.
Here’s more from the Eastern Conference:
- Scouts are split in their opinions regarding Wizards center Daniel Gafford due to his inconsistency, per Josh Robbins of The Athletic. Robbins takes an in-depth look at Gafford’s strengths and weaknesses, using video clips and stats, and querying scouts to get a well-rounded take on Gafford’s game and what he might develop into in the future.
- The Raptors didn’t make any splashy offseason moves, and may not be a top contender to come out of the East, but they’re not stuck in the middle either, argues Eric Koreen of The Athletic. Toronto is trying to develop young players while being as competitive as possible, which is a difficult balancing act at times, but the team has successfully managed it in the past, according to Koreen, who adds that the Raptors have consistently exceeded their expected win totals under president Masai Ujiri.
- In a mailbag column for The Athletic, James Edwards III tackles a number of Pistons-related topics. Edwards thinks second-year wing Isaiah Livers is a prime breakout candidate, Isaiah Stewart‘s three-point shooting from Summer League should carry over into the 2022/23 season, and veterans Cory Joseph, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel and Kelly Olynyk should all have more trade value as the in-season deadline nears.
Trail Blazers Officially Announce Four Camp Signings
The Trail Blazers have officially signed Devontae Cacok, Olivier Sarr, Isaiah Miller and Jared Rhoden, the team announced. All four players, whose deals were previously reported, received Exhibit 10 training camp deals.
Of the group, only Cacok and Sarr hold NBA experience — Cacok has appeared in 36 games in parts of three seasons with the Lakers and Spurs, while Sarr played 22 games with the Thunder last season. Miller went undrafted out of UNC Greensboro in 2021 and spent last season in the G League with the Iowa Wolves; Rhoden is an undrafted rookie out of Seton Hall.
The Blazers have an unusual roster situation for a couple of different reasons. At the end of August, they waived Didi Louzada, using the stretch provision to stay below the luxury tax threshold of $150,267,000. That left the standard 15-man roster with 14 players on guaranteed deals, but even adding a minimum-salary player would push them over the tax line, so that last spot will almost certainly remain open for now (they could sign someone later in the season if they want to, since NBA salaries are prorated).
The second reason the roster situation is unusual is because Portland is one of only two teams without an NBA G League affiliate (the Suns are the other). Ordinarily players signed to Exhibit 10 deals are earmarked as affiliate players, and assuming they’re waived before the regular season, they become eligible for a bonus worth up to $50K.
However, since the Blazers don’t have an affiliate, none of the four players will be eligible for the bonus. Instead, evidently all four will be competing for the club’s lone two-way spot that’s still open — Brandon Williams currently occupies the other. Players on two-way contracts are eligible to appear in up to 50 games, but aren’t eligible for the postseason.
Malcolm Hill Re-Signs With Bulls On Two-Way Deal
Malcolm Hill has re-signed with the Bulls on a two-way contract, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic (via Twitter). According to NBA.com’s transactions log, the deal is already official.
The Bulls extended Hill a two-way qualifying offer at the end of June, so he likely just decided to sign the QO to stick with Chicago.
The 26-year-old Hill was an unusual rookie last year. He went undrafted in 2017 out of Illinois and played internationally in the Philippines, Germany, Kazakhstan, and Israel prior to returning stateside.
Hill initially signed a training camp deal with the Pelicans prior to the 2021/22 season, but was waived before the season started and spent time with the team’s G League affiliate, the Birmingham Squadron. In December of last year, he signed a 10-day hardship contract with the Hawks, appearing in three games.
After Hill’s 10-day deal with Atlanta expired, he caught on with Chicago, initially signing a 10-day hardship deal before inking a two-way contract. Hill appeared in 16 games (10.4 MPG) with the Bulls, averaging 3.4 PPG and 1.8 RPG on .432/.323/.700 shooting.
The 6’6″ wing had a bigger role and put up better stats for Chicago’s G League affiliate, the Windy City Bulls, averaging 18.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 3.1 APG on a stellar .500/.396/.875 shooting line in eight games (33.1 MPG). Hill most recently suited up for the Bulls’ Summer League squad, averaging 13.0 PPG and 3.8 RPG on .465/.474/.889 shooting in five games (25.0 MPG), per RealGM.
The Bulls have 15 players signed to guaranteed standard contracts and both two-way spots now filled, so their roster is already full heading into training camp. Any future signings will likely be Exhibit 10 deals with the option of being converted to two-way contracts — Justin Lewis‘ two-way spot might be vulnerable after he unfortunately suffered a torn ACL last month.
Extension Candidate: Jordan Poole
This is the second installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re continuing today with a look at a player who was a key contributor to a championship team in 2022.
Rundown:
The 28th overall pick of the 2019 draft after two years at Michigan, Jordan Poole had a larger-than-expected role as a rookie due to major injuries to Warriors stars Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Unfortunately, he struggled mightily in his first pro season, appearing in 57 games (22.4 MPG) while averaging 8.8 PPG, 2.1 RPG and 2.4 APG on a ghastly .333/.279/.798 shooting line. His .454 true shooting percentage was last in the entire NBA, as was his -6.6 box plus/minus.
Things weren’t much better for Poole during the first few months of his second season in 2020/21, appearing in just 15 of Golden State’s first 36 games and receiving scant playing time (9.6 MPG). Since he wasn’t getting much NBA run, he was sent to the G League in February 2021 to work on his craft.
Poole displayed a newfound confidence and looked like a completely different player upon his return a month later, emerging as a major spark-plug scorer off the bench. Over his final 36 games (23.5 MPG), he averaged 14.7 PPG, 2.1 RPG and 2.4 APG on .433/.354/.870 shooting (.579 true).
In year three, Poole built upon the foundation he laid during that strong second half surge, appearing in 76 games (30.0 MPG) while averaging 18.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 4.0 APG on .448/.364/.925 shooting. He started 51 of those contests in the backcourt alongside Curry.
Out of all guards who averaged at least 18 points per night, Poole ranked fifth in true shooting percentage at .598 – an excellent mark. His .925 free throw percentage led the NBA.
More importantly, he was also a standout performer in the postseason, averaging 17.0 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 3.8 APG on .508/.391/.915 shooting (.654 true) in 22 games (five starts, 27.5 MPG) during Golden State’s title run.
Strengths:
Poole is an extremely shifty ball-handler who can create space for himself and teammates with ease. While he has a strong first step, what really separates Poole from other ball-handlers is how quickly he can change direction and how decisive he is – if he gains even a slight advantage, he goes straight to the hole.
Another element of Poole’s ball-handling that’s really impressive is that he has counter moves upon counter moves. He can string together a combination of intricate dribble moves in just a second or two, and even if the defender stops the first couple, he might unleash a crossover that leads them reaching on the third.
The 23-year-old is just as comfortable dribbling with his left hand as his right, and doesn’t really show a preference, which makes it really difficult to try to guess which way he’s going to go.
Poole isn’t the most explosive athlete vertically, but he’s very fast with the ball in his hands and excels in the open court. He’s a talented finisher around the basket, converting 62% of his looks at the rim — an above average mark (55th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com). Many of those shots are very high-difficulty attempts as well.
Poole is an excellent scorer from all over the court. While he didn’t attempt many mid-rangers, he knocked down 46% of those looks (78th percentile). A big part of why he was so efficient is because the majority of his shots came either at the rim or from deep – he also gets to the line at a decent clip.
He employs side-steps and step-backs to create space for three-pointers, and 3.0 of his 7.6 attempts per game from deep came off the bounce, per NBA.com. He’s slithery coming off screens, and he’s very smart about using the screen a second time to free himself for a better look or a drive.
As with all of his teammates, Poole certainly benefits from all the attention Curry draws, but he’s perfectly capable of scoring in bunches on his own. During the last 12 games of the regular season, when Curry was injured, Poole averaged 25.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG and 6.2 APG on .421/.374/.954 shooting (.586 true) and didn’t look out of place as a primary option.
Poole is also a solid passer when he’s so inclined, though he definitely has a score-first mentality – his 21% assist percentage was in the 80th percentile, per DunksAndThrees.com.
Improvement Areas:
Poole has been a below average defensive player to this point in his career, and in order for him to take another leap as a player, he needs to get better.
According to NBA.com, opponents shot 1.7% better than their expected field goal percentage with Poole defending them — the second-worst mark on the Warriors — and that’s with the team trying to hide him on weaker offensive players. That figure rose to 4.7% better than expected in the playoffs.
Poole doesn’t really excel at anything on defense. He isn’t strong individually or as a help defender, and he doesn’t force many turnovers (0.8 steal and 0.3 block per night).
Poole was definitely a beneficiary of having several strong defenders around him – the Warriors had the second-best defense during the regular season, and that was their main collective strength in winning the championship.
He’s also a below average rebounder, pulling down just 3.4 per night, and at 6’4” he could stand to bump that number up closer to five, though it’s something he’s never been great at, even in college.
Another area of Poole’s game that needs work is his decision making. His 1.39-to-1 assist to turnover ratio in ‘21/22 was quite poor for a high usage player, especially someone who handles the ball as much as he does.
Lastly, while Poole has very deep range and certainly doesn’t lack in confidence, his 36.4% mark from three was only one percent above league average. If that number rises even a little bit, it would help his already very good efficiency.
Conclusion:
Poole’s statistics last season were fairly similar to Tyler Herro’s, and like Herro, I think Poole is almost certain to receive a nine-figure payday on his next contract. Since he was a late first-rounder, he has “only” earned a little over $6MM to this point. The prospect of receiving $100MM+, assuming the Warriors offer it, would undoubtedly be appealing.
When comparing Poole, Herro and the other young guards who set the market value this summer (Anfernee Simons, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett all received $100-107MM in guaranteed money over four years), I personally think Poole might have the highest upside. But that doesn’t mean he’ll get the most money of the group, particularly in a theoretical extension.
The primary reason the Warriors might be hesitant to give Poole a lucrative extension is that they’re already a record-setting taxpayer, and they’d owe significantly more in taxes than the actual value of his salary. It would also lock in an extremely expensive roster for years to come.
There’s an argument to be made that Poole is a luxury, not a necessity, especially with Thompson healthy for a full season – I don’t buy that argument, but it’s not entirely baseless. The front office might have to choose between paying just one or two of Poole, Draymond Green or Andrew Wiggins, and all were very valuable contributors last season who are good at different things, so it would be a tough call.
If Poole bets on himself and declines an offer for, say, $110MM — which would carry a good deal of risk since he doesn’t have a long track record (plus injuries are always a concern) — there’s a chance he could get a max deal as a restricted free agent in 2023, which is projected to be worth $142,975,000 over four years.
Extension Candidate: Tyler Herro
This is the first installment in our series examining players who are prime candidates for contract extensions. This series will explore the player’s strengths and weaknesses, and will evaluate what a fair deal between the player and his team might look like. We’re getting underway with a look at the NBA’s reigning Sixth Man of the Year.
Rundown:
The No. 13 overall pick of the 2019 draft after one year at Kentucky, Tyler Herro made an immediate impact in 55 games (27.4 minutes) as a rookie, averaging 13.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists on .428/.389/.870 shooting for a Heat team that came within two games of a championship. He had a strong playoff run in the Orlando bubble, bumping those averages up to 16.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG and 3.7 APG on .433/.375/.870 shooting in 21 contests (33.6 minutes).
Herro improved his counting stats during his second season in ‘20/21, averaging 15.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists, though his efficiency declined slightly, with a .439/.360/.803 shooting line. As opposed to his strong postseason showing as a rookie, Herro, like the rest of Miami’s roster, struggled mightily while being swept by the Bucks in the first round, averaging just 9.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG and 1.8 APG on .316/.316/1.000 shooting in four games (23.3 minutes).
Herro emerged as the league’s most dangerous bench scorer last season, winning the Sixth Man of the Year award after appearing in 66 games (32.6 minutes) while averaging 20.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists on .447/.399/.868 shooting. However, he once again struggled in the playoffs with defenses more focused on slowing him down, averaging 12.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG and 2.8 APG on .409/.229/.926 shooting in 15 contests (25.4 minutes).
Strengths:
Among players who officially qualified, Herro ranked 21st in the NBA in points per game last season. He is someone opposing defenses are forced to game-plan against.
His primary skill is that he’s an excellent shooter from all over the court, ranking in the 63rd percentile from mid-range, 87th on threes, and 87th from the free throw line, per DunksAndThrees.com.
The threat of Herro’s shooting creates space for teammates, which is really important for a Heat team that struggles at times to space the floor. For as valuable as they are at basically every other aspect of basketball, neither Jimmy Butler nor Bam Adebayo is a three-point threat, so Miami’s offense can be a bit crowded at times, especially in half court settings.
Herro isn’t just a shooter either, as he shows some impressive play-making chops at times. He’s capable of creating high-quality looks for himself and others on both scripted plays and on the fly.
He posted a 21% assist percentage last season, which was in the 79th percentile of all players. He has good vision and is capable of making difficult one-handed cross-court passes, though he definitely looks for his own shot more often than not.
Herro is capable of acting as a lead ball-handler in spot minutes, and while he isn’t the greatest decision-maker yet (1.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he shows flashes of being able to handle those duties. He’s also a solid rebounder, especially on the defensive glass, with a 15% defensive rebounding rate (59th percentile).
Improvement Areas:
Physical limitations will likely always be an issue for Herro, which is something that’s mostly out of his control. Though he has decent height for a shooting guard at 6’5”, his wingspan is only 6’4”, he isn’t the greatest athlete, and he isn’t the strongest player, leading to him getting pushed around at times.
Those limitations show up in two key areas. The first is that he’s a below-the-rim finisher, and while he has good touch on floaters, he rarely gets all the way to the rim.
According to Basketball-Reference, only 13.7% of Herro’s shots came within three feet of the basket, compared to 27.9% of his looks from 10 feet to the three-point line. He prefers to shoot pull-ups rather than initiating contact in the paint.
The fact that he attempts so many mid-rangers and doesn’t get to the line a ton hurts his overall efficiency (of the 27 players who qualified for the scoring title and averaged at least 20 points, Herro was 25th in free throw attempts). His true shooting percentage (56.1%) was a little below league average (56.6%) last season.
The second area that Herro really needs to improve upon is his defense, which has been particularly problematic in the playoffs. He has been repeatedly targeted as a weak defensive link in each of his three postseason trips.
Opponents shot better (45.7%) than expected (44.8%) with Herro defending them in the regular season, and that gap grew during the playoffs (rivals shot 48.9% versus 46% expected), per NBA.com. And that’s with Herro coming off the bench and the Heat trying to hide him on the opposing teams’ weakest offensive players.
Out of 67 players who averaged at least 32 minutes and appeared in at least 30 games, Herro ranked 62nd in deflections per game with 1.2. He rarely draws charges, and averaged less than one stock (steals plus blocks) per game last season, which is quite poor (0.7 SPG and 0.1 BPG). His steal percentage (1.0%) ranked in the 21st percentile of all players, and his block percentage (0.4%) was in the ninth percentile, per DunksAndThrees.
Conclusion:
Young players are inherently polarizing because they are not finished products. When you watch them play, you’re ideally looking for positive traits that can be translated into future success, but it’s easy to lose sight of that if they’re on a good team and play a big role.
That’s especially true of Herro, even if it’s a little unfair to someone who’s still only 22 years old. More than most former first-round picks still on their rookie deals, Herro is an eye-of-the-beholder player due to his distinct strengths and weaknesses, some of which have been put under a bigger spotlight because of his team’s success.
Anfernee Simons set the market for emerging young guards this summer with a four-year, $100MM deal as a restricted free agent. That’s probably Herro’s floor for his next contract.
If the Heat believe Herro will continue improving and is worthy of a significant long-term investment, I could see him exceeding RJ Barrett’s deal with the Knicks, which is reportedly worth $107MM guaranteed over four years with unlikely incentives pushing it up to a possible $120MM.
If they want to continue to keep their options open and possibly deal him during the season, the Heat would be wise not to extend Herro to avoid the “poison pill provision,” which would make trading him extremely difficult. Miami would still have the ability to match any offer he might receive as a restricted free agent in 2023.
The risk of not extending him, assuming his agents are open to accepting less than a maximum-salary deal right now, is there’s a non-zero chance he gets a max as a restricted free agent next summer. A four-year maximum contract from a rival team is projected to be worth $142,975,000.
Giving Herro around $30MM a year would lock in an expensive core of Butler, Adebayo, Herro and Kyle Lowry for at least the next two seasons (Lowry is a free agent in 2024). Having said that, extending Herro now could make moving him in the 2023 offseason easier for the Heat in some ways – he’d already be trade-eligible, and his larger contract would make salary-matching for another star less tricky than it is on the end of his rookie deal.
Trade Breakdown: Patrick Beverley To Lakers
This is the tenth installment in our series breaking down the major trades of the 2022 offseason. As opposed to giving out grades, this series will explore why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Lakers and Jazz…
On August 25, the Jazz traded Patrick Beverley to the Lakers in exchange for Talen Horton-Tucker and Stanley Johnson. Both Beverley and Johnson are on expiring deals, while Horton-Tucker has a player option for 2023/24.
The Lakers’ Perspective:
Marc Stein reported last week that the Lakers were initially reluctant to trade Horton-Tucker for Beverley as the front office was emphasizing youth and athleticism to revamp the roster after a disappointing ‘21/22 season that saw L.A. go 33-49 and miss out on the postseason. However, after LeBron James signed an extension, the team felt more comfortable making a win-now move to improve its roster.
Horton-Tucker is still just 21 years old, so he certainly has some untapped upside. The problem is, while he possesses some unique attributes, he needs the ball in his hands to be most effective on offense, and with ball-dominant players like James and Russell Westbrook on the roster, those opportunities were always going to be limited.
Complicating matters further is the fact that Horton-Tucker has been a poor outside shooter to this point (26.9% on three-pointers last season, 27.6% for his career), which hurt the team’s offensive spacing. He has the tools to be a good defender, but he was inconsistent on that end as well, which isn’t unusual for a young player.
Johnson was mainly included in the deal for salary-matching purposes, as the Lakers needed to add another $75K to Horton-Tucker’s salary to make the trade legal. He played with good energy and effort last season, but he’s a very limited offensive player who is about league-average defensively, so it’s not like he’ll be sorely missed.
At 34 years old, Beverley is probably past his peak, but he’s certainly a short-term upgrade and a much better fit for the way the Lakers’ roster is constructed. He’s the exact type of guard who has typically thrived alongside James throughout his career, fitting the mold of a three-and-D player who doesn’t need the ball to be effective.
Beverley certainly isn’t the most talented scorer, with a career average of 8.8 points per game. But while he has his share of limitations on offense, he’s self-aware and typically doesn’t try to do too much, which is a valuable trait in a role player.
Beverley holds a career mark of 37.8% from beyond the arc, which is above average, and he’s even better from the corners, nailing 40% of those shots in his career. Corner threes are particularly important for floor spacing, so he should help in that regard.
Beverley also takes care of the ball, posting a 3.54-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in ’21/22, and is a tenacious offensive rebounder, creating extra possessions seemingly out of nowhere.
Defense has been Beverley’s calling card throughout his career and is the main reason why he’s about to enter his 11th NBA season. He has been selected to three All-Defensive Teams, the last coming in ’19/20, and though he isn’t quite as good as he once was, he’s still a major backcourt upgrade on that end.
Beverley also brings a relentless energy, effort, toughness and competitiveness that’s hard to quantify with stats, but is certainly impactful. That’s part of the reason why his teams have made the postseason in eight of his ten seasons.
A hard-nosed (at times reckless) playing style has led to Beverley sustaining several injuries, which has to be a significant concern for the Lakers after having James and Anthony Davis miss significant chunks of the last two seasons. Over the past five years, Beverley has appeared in just 235 of a possible 390 regular season contests, which is just over 60%.
Beverley’s expiring deal will pay him $13MM in ‘22/23, and the Lakers will hold his Bird rights, so they’ll be able to go over the salary cap to re-sign him next summer if both parties are amenable to that arrangement.
The Jazz’s Perspective:
Prioritizing minutes for an aging veteran when your team is in the midst of a full-fledged rebuild — a direction made even more evident by trading Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland — doesn’t make sense, and the Jazz realized that pretty quickly, moving on from Beverley less than two months after landing him in the Rudy Gobert blockbuster with Minnesota.
That’s not to say Utah didn’t value Beverley, but he’s a player who actually helps you win games, and the Jazz appear to be trying to lose as many games as possible next season to get the best chance of landing a top prospect like Victor Wembanyama.
What does make sense is taking an upside swing on a developmental prospect like Horton-Tucker, who was one of the youngest players in his draft class (46th overall pick in 2019). Now entering his fourth season, Horton-Tucker is still younger than several incoming rookies, including No. 14 overall pick Ochai Agbaji, whom the Jazz just acquired in the Mitchell deal.
As previously mentioned, Horton-Tucker (also known as THT) has some unique qualities. Standing 6’4″ and weighing 234 pounds, he has a broad-shouldered, strong frame. He also possesses a freakish 7’1″ wingspan, and the combination of his strength and length allows him to do some things that other players are not physically capable of.
Just because he was a poor fit with the Lakers doesn’t mean he lacks talent, and Horton-Tucker certainly has a chance to be a better player than Beverley ever was. The Jazz are betting that giving him a runway for a bigger role might bring out the best in him, allowing Utah to reap the long-term rewards.
Horton-Tucker is not a three-and-D player, but that’s what the Lakers needed him to be, so that’s the role they asked him to play. He is, however, a skilled play-maker, showcasing a knack for getting into the lane with an array of behind-the-backs, crossovers and spin moves. He’s particularly adept at changing pace on the fly, which is a difficult skill to teach.
A solid but unspectacular athlete, Horton-Tucker’s primary attribute at this point is his ability to get to his spots, especially around the basket, though he hasn’t been the best at converting when he does — he shot 57% at the rim last season, which was in the 31st percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com. Like Beverley, Horton-Tucker is a Chicago native who plays with a physical edge and a level of fearlessness that’s impressive to watch.
He has shown some nascent ability as a passer as well, especially off a live dribble, and could realistically average five-plus assists for Utah considering the lack of quality passers on the roster, especially if Mike Conley is traded. Horton-Tucker is also a solid off-ball cutter, something he was able to showcase a bit more a couple of years ago when playing with Marc Gasol, an excellent passing center who could space the floor.
Horton-Tucker needs work defensively — he has the physical tools to be effective, but he’s prone to mistakes, especially off the ball. He’s often slow to rotate as a help defender and is a little reach-happy on the ball, but those are fixable errors.
THT has an $11MM player option for ‘23/24, and there’s a reasonable chance that he picks it up, depending on how he performs next season. The Jazz will have his Bird rights if they’d like to keep him around.
The eighth pick of the 2015 draft, Johnson hasn’t developed into the player scouts thought he could be, and he’s unlikely to have much of a role for Utah. With the Mitchell deal complete, the Jazz will have 17 players on guaranteed deals, and that number needs to be cut down to 15 by the start of the regular season, so Johnson’s spot on the roster is far from secure.
Neither Horton-Tucker (-0.5) nor Johnson (-0.2) made much of an impact on winning last season, with both ranking in the bottom 100 in the league in value over replacement player, per Basketball-Reference. Beverley, meanwhile, recorded a career-best 1.7 VORP, good for 65th in the NBA.
There are several other advanced stats that indicate the same thing, with Beverley posting more win shares (4.1) than THT and Johnson combined (2.9). Beverley’s estimated plus/minus was +2.0, which ranked 68th in the league, per DunksAndThrees.com, while Horton-Tucker (-2.4, ranked 327th) and Johnson (-1.2, ranked 248th) were both net negatives by that metric. I could go on, but you get the point.
Ultimately, considering the Jazz are trying to lose in ’22/23 and the Lakers are trying to win, it was a logical trade for both sides.
Western Notes: Z. Williams, Suns, Kings, Blazers
Second-year wing Ziaire Williams might be the key for the Grizzlies to become a better mid-range shooting team, writes Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appeal.
Memphis led the league in points in the paint last season, but seldomly made mid-range jumpers, ranking just 26th in the league during the regular season and last in the playoffs, per Cole. The 6’8″ Williams, meanwhile, is a talented pull-up shooter, with the ability to create his shot in multiple ways, Cole notes.
“I was blessed to have that mid-range, man,” Williams said during Summer League. “We’ve been working on that shot since I was 5 or 6 years old. It’s definitely there for sure, especially with my height and my length. I get that shot off a lot.”
On a very limited volume, Williams shot 48% on mid-rangers as a rookie in 2021/22, which ranked in the 87th percentile of all players, according to DunksAndThrees.com.
Here’s more from the Western Conference:
- Duane Rankin of The Arizona Republic considers several possible free agent targets for the Suns‘ final roster spot, including Carmelo Anthony, Jarrett Culver, Facundo Campazzo, and Ben McLemore, among others.
- Did the offseason moves the Kings made make them a playoff team? Jason Anderson of The Sacramento Bee explores that topic, noting that shooting was a priority and the Kings addressed that need by adding Malik Monk (free agent), Kevin Huerter (trade with Atlanta) and Keegan Murray (No. 4 overall pick). Ultimately, Anderson thinks Sacramento should definitely improve its win total from last season after going 30-52, but landing one of the final spots in the play-in tournament might be a more realistic outcome than breaking the long playoff drought.
- A source tells Marc J. Spears of Andscape (Twitter link) that the Trail Blazers have parted ways with assistant coach Edniesha Curry. Portland confirmed the news (Twitter link via Spears), though the reasoning behind the move was vague. Curry, a former WNBA player, was a first-year assistant in ’21/22.
Lakers Interested In Jazz Vets, Hope To Preserve 2023 Cap Room
The Lakers have “some interest” in Jazz veterans Bojan Bogdanovic, Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson, but are still trying to maintain their cap room for 2023, according to Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today Sports (Twitter links). The Lakers currently project to have about $30MM in cap room next summer.
As Zillgitt observes, Conley’s $24.36MM salary for 2023/24 is partially guaranteed at $14.32MM, while Clarkson has a player option worth $14.26MM, which may affect how much interest L.A. has in the two guards.
Bogdanovic is on a $19.55MM expiring contract, and several teams are reportedly pursuing the 33-year-old forward, a talented scorer and shooter who has converted at least 38.7% of his three-point tries in each of the last five seasons.
In order to match salaries, Russell Westbrook‘s $47.1MM expiring deal would have to be sent to Utah, because the Lakers don’t have any tradable mid-sized contracts. If they don’t want to take on money beyond next season, a package of Bogdanovic, Malik Beasley and Nickeil Alexander-Walker theoretically works for salary-matching purposes, and all are on expiring or pseudo-expiring deals (there’s a ’23/24 team option for Beasley at $16.52MM).
However, it’s unclear if the Lakers would be interested in that scenario, considering the Jazz might ask for both of the Lakers’ available first-round picks (2027 and 2029). Utah is in the middle of a roster teardown, with a particular emphasis on accumulating unprotected first-rounders.
In other Lakers-related news, Jovan Buha of The Athletic reassesses the team’s depth chart and rotation after acquiring Patrick Beverley from Utah in exchange for Talen Horton-Tucker and Stanley Johnson. Sources tell Buha that Thomas Bryant and Austin Reaves have been “standout performers” in offseason workouts, and Buha currently has both players slotted in the starting lineup at center and shooting guard, respectively.
Heat Notes: Herro, Crowder, Mitchell
With Donovan Mitchell heading to Cleveland, the odds of the Heat giving Tyler Herro a rookie scale extension have seemingly increased, according to Barry Jackson and Anthony Chiang of The Miami Herald.
As Jackson and Chiang write, the Heat were keeping their options open, but with Kevin Durant agreeing to stick with the Nets, at least for now, and Mitchell off the table, there aren’t any obvious star players to target in a trade.
The reason Herro likely hasn’t received an extension to this point is due to the “poison pill provision,” and our Luke Adams actually used Herro as an example of why extending him would make trading him extremely difficult in our updated glossary entry.
If he theoretically received a four-year, $120MM extension, then Herro’s 2022/23 salary of $5,722,116 would count as the Heat’s outgoing salary figure in a trade, but any team acquiring Herro would have to view his incoming value as $25,144,423 — that’s the annual average of the five years and $125,722,116 he has left when accounting for both his current contract and his (hypothetical) new extension.
The Heat have given extensions to players on rookie contracts in the past, including Bam Adebayo, Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow, Jackson and Chiang note.
Here’s more from Miami:
- Jae Crowder remains a possible trade target to upgrade the power forward spot after losing P.J. Tucker in free agency, per Jackson and Chiang, who note Crowder “holds some appeal” to Miami. However, the Suns haven’t indicated they want to move him, and acquiring him would be complicated and require multiple players because the Heat don’t have anyone who is currently trade-eligible to cleanly match Crowder’s $10.18MM expiring salary in a one-for-one deal.
- According to John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix (Twitter link), the Heat never made a formal offer for Mitchell. It’s worth noting that Gambadoro was the first to report that the Cavaliers, who ultimately acquired Mitchell, were pursuing him, so he seemed to have pretty good connections on the situation.
- Meeting Utah’s high asking price for Mitchell reeks of a team “desperate to be relevant,” argues Ira Winderman of The South Florida Sun-Sentinel, who says the Heat didn’t need to acquire the star guard because they’re already relevant. According to Winderman, Durant was worthy of pushing all the chips in the center for because he’s a “generational talent,” but that isn’t the case for Mitchell.