Community Shootaround: NBA’s Race To The Bottom
Coming into the 2022/23 season, there was some concern that the presence of Scoot Henderson and (especially) Victor Wembanyama at the top of the 2023 draft class could result in some pretty aggressive tanking from the bottom third of the NBA’s teams.
It hasn’t played out that way so far though, due to a competitive race for the top 10 spots in each conference. In the West, the top 13 teams all either hold a playoff or play-in spot or are no more than 1.5 games back of the No. 10 seed. It’s not quite as congested in the East, but the conference’s 13th team is only four games out of a play-in spot.
As a result, there have been only four teams in full-on “race for Wembanyama” mode, and one of those four clubs hasn’t exactly been in tanking mode as of late, winning its last four games. Here’s what the bottom of the NBA’s standings look like as of Sunday morning:
- Houston Rockets (13-46)
- San Antonio Spurs (14-47)
- Detroit Pistons (15-46)
- Charlotte Hornets (19-43)
- Orlando Magic (25-36)
- Indiana Pacers (27-35)
- Chicago Bulls (27-33)
- Los Angeles Lakers (28-32)
- (tie) Portland Trail Blazers / Oklahoma City Thunder / Washington Wizards (28-31)
Given that the odds for the No. 1 pick are the same for each of the NBA’s three worst teams, it seemed as if we’d get a four-team race for those three spots at the bottom of the standings. But the Hornets have won their last four games and appear far better positioned to continue getting victories than the Rockets (losers of eight in a row and 23 of their last 26), the Spurs (losers of 15 in a row and 21 of 22), and the Pistons (losers of four in a row and seven of their last eight).
Of course, if the Hornets were to play .500 ball the rest of the way, they’d still end up with just 29 wins, so they may end up with the NBA’s fourth-worst record even if they finish strong. After all, the Bulls, Lakers, Trail Blazers, and Wizards all seem motivated to make the play-in.
The Magic, Pacers, and Thunder are perhaps candidates for stealth end-of-season tanks in order to secure top-five lottery odds, since none of those clubs expected to be a playoff team this season. But they’ve been competitive all season and would probably have to start ruling out some of their top players due to injuries if they want to start winning less often (similar to what Portland did last year).
As for the race to the bottom among the NBA’s three worst teams, it’s hard to bet against the Rockets, who also finished with the league’s worst record in 2021 and 2022. But the Spurs are giving them a run for their money with their recent stretch of futility, posting an abysmal -15.8 net rating during their 15-game current losing streak. And the Pistons seem happy to experiment with new lineups while incorporating recently added players.
We want to know what you think. How will the race for lottery positioning play out the rest of the way? Which team will finish as the NBA’s worst? Has the Hornets’ recent success locked them into the fourth spot in the lottery standings? Are there any teams with 25 or more wins that you expect to go into full-on tank mode in the coming days or weeks?
Head to the comment section below to weigh in!
Checking In On RFAs-To-Be Who Have Met Starter Criteria
As we explain in a glossary entry, a player who is eligible for restricted free agency at the end of a given season can have the value of his qualifying offer adjusted depending on whether or not he meets the “starter criteria.”
A player is considered to have met the starter criteria if he plays at least 2,000 minutes or starts 41 games in the season before he reaches free agency. A player can also meet the criteria if he averages either of those marks in the two seasons prior to his restricted free agency.
If a top-14 pick doesn’t meet the starter criteria, he has the value of his qualifying offer adjusted downward and receives a QO equal to the amount the 15th overall pick would get if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale.
A player drafted at No. 10 or later can increase the value of his qualifying offer by meeting the starter criteria.
Players drafted between 10th and 30th who meet the starter criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the ninth overall pick would receive if he signed for 120% of the rookie scale, while second-round picks or undrafted free agents who meet the criteria receive a QO equal to the amount the 21st overall pick would receive if he signed for 100% of the rookie scale.
In simplified terms, here’s how those rules will apply in 2022/23:
- A top-14 pick who falls short of the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $7,744,600.
- A player picked between No. 10 and No. 30 who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $8,486,620.
- A second-round pick or undrafted free agent who meets the starter criteria will have a qualifying offer worth $5,216,324.
A qualifying offer is essentially a one-year contract offer that functions as a placeholder if the player doesn’t accept it. If a player is considered a good bet to sign a lucrative long-term contract, a slight adjustment to his qualifying offer generally has no material impact on his free agency.
However, a change in a qualifying offer can sometimes be a difference maker. The best recent example of this came in 2020, when then-Bulls guard Kris Dunn met the starter criteria, ensuring that his qualifying offer would be worth $7,091,457 instead of $4,642,800.
The Bulls opted not to extend that $7MM+ QO, making him an unrestricted free agent, and he ended up signing a two-year, $10MM contract with Atlanta. If Dunn hadn’t met the starter criteria, it’s possible Chicago would’ve been more comfortable issuing a $4.6MM qualifying offer, which would’ve significantly changed the way Dunn’s free agency played out.
So far in 2022/23, three players have met the starter criteria:
- P.J. Washington, Hornets (60 starts)
- Tre Jones, Spurs (52 starts)
- Ayo Dosunmu, Bulls (49 starts)
Washington was the 12th overall pick in 2019 and will therefore have his qualifying offer bumped up to $8,486,620.
As second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, respectively, Jones and Dosunmu will now have QOs worth $5,216,324.
Here are some more players eligible for restricted free agency this summer whose qualifying offers can – or will – be impacted by the starter criteria:
- Coby White, Bulls (top-14 pick)
- Jaxson Hayes, Pelicans (top-14 pick)
- Rui Hachimura, Lakers (top-14 pick)
- Cameron Johnson, Nets (top-14 pick)
- Romeo Langford, Spurs (top-14 pick)
- Matisse Thybulle, Trail Blazers (No. 20 pick)
- Grant Williams, Celtics (No. 22 pick)
- Herbert Jones, Pelicans (second-round pick) *
- Kenyon Martin Jr., Rockets (second-round pick) *
- Naji Marshall, Pelicans (UDFA) *
(* Player has a team option for 2023/24)
White, Hayes, Hachimura, and Langford have no realistic path to meeting the starter criteria this season, so if their teams want to make them restricted free agents this summer, the qualifying offer cost will be $7,744,600. Johnson could join them in that group, though he has started 20 games so far this season and Brooklyn still has 23 contests left, so he still has a shot to make 41 starts as long as he stays healthy and the Nets don’t move him to the bench.
Thybulle and Williams are the only two non-lottery first-round picks who will be RFA-eligible later this year and still have a chance to meet the starter criteria, bumping their QOs to $8,486,620.
It’s probably a long shot for Thybulle, who has made 59 starts since the beginning of 2021/22 — the Trail Blazers only have 23 games remaining, so Thybulle would have to start every single one of them to get to 82 total starts (an average of 41) over the last two seasons.
Williams has a clearer path to get there. He has logged 1,651 minutes so far this season, averaging 27.5 per game. The Celtics play 21 more times this season and Williams would have to play 349 more minutes (16.6 per night) to reach the 2,000-minute threshold. That seems likely as long as he stays off the injured list.
Jones, Martin, and Marshall belong in a different group. All three players have team options on their contracts for 2023/24, so their clubs could simply exercise those options and not have to worry about restricted free agency this year. That’s absolutely what will happen in Jones’ case, since he’ll still be RFA-eligible in 2024.
Martin and Marshall, however, would be on track for unrestricted free agency in 2024 if their team options for next season are picked up — the Rockets and Pelicans could decide to decline this options this summer and negotiate with their players as restricted free agents instead, giving them more control over the process. Houston took this route last summer with Jae’Sean Tate.
With that in mind, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether Martin and/or Marshall will reach the starter criteria and bump their potential QOs to $5,216,324 (from approximately $2.3MM). Martin, who has been in the Rockets’ starting five since mid-January, would need to start 15 of the team’s last 23 games to get there. It’s a more difficult path for Marshall, who would need to average 29.6 minutes per game in the Pelicans’ final 21 contests to get to 2,000 minutes on the season.
Texas Notes: Dieng, McDermott, Graham, Kleber, Stone
Spurs veterans Gorgui Dieng and Doug McDermott will be tasked with helping to ensure that San Antonio’s young players continue to grow as the year winds down, writes Jeff McDonald of The San Antonio Express-News.
The team is currently mired in a 14-game losing streak en route to a prime lottery pick. McDonald writes that some of the coaching burden falls onto the team’s two most experienced players, McDermott and Dieng, who can operate as unofficial coaches on the floor.
How long both players remain on the roster beyond this season is anyone’s guess. Dieng, 33, is signed to a one-year minimum deal, and will be a free agent this summer. McDermott, 31, is the team’s highest-paid player, and is set to earn $13.8MM in the final season of his very tradable current deal, 2023/24.
There’s more out of the Lone Star State:
- New Spurs guard Devonte’ Graham is still acclimating to his new environs, McDonald reports in another piece. After arriving in San Antonio by way of the Pelicans in a trade, he has yet to suit up for his new club in a home game. “I’m just trying to get adjusted,” Graham said. “I just packed enough to maintain for a couple of weeks… I’m just living out of a suitcase right now.”
- Mavericks big man Maxi Kleber indicated to Callie Caplan of The Dallas Morning News (Twitter link) that he expects he will miss at least Dallas’ next two games as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury. Previous reporting suggested Kleber was hoping to return by the end of February.
- Rockets team president Rafael Stone sat done for an extensive discussion about the team’s rebuild with Kelly Iko of The Athletic. “When we came into (the rebuild), we didn’t really have talent on the roster,” Stone said. “We didn’t have any cap space, we didn’t have any draft picks. We now have been able to recoup our draft picks, we have more cap space this summer than anybody else and I think we have a very talented roster… We need to translate those things into a team that becomes competitive and hopefully starts winning and winning big over time. And that’s the challenge in front of us starting this summer, but continuing on.”
Roster Moves Required Soon For Knicks, Hornets, Rockets, Jazz
The NBA’s rules require teams to carry a minimum of 14 players on their standard 15-man roster (not counting two-way contracts). However, teams are permitted to dip below 14 players for up to two weeks at a time, and that often happens around the trade deadline when clubs send out multiple players in a deal without acquiring as many in return.
Entering this week, there were six NBA teams who were carrying only 13 players on standard contracts. However, the Heat filled their two open roster spots by signing Kevin Love and Cody Zeller, while the Bucks are reportedly signing Meyers Leonard to a 10-day contract to be their 14th man (they’ll have to finalize that deal by Thursday).
That leaves four teams with roster moves to make in the coming days, as our roster counts page shows. Here’s the breakdown:
New York Knicks
The Knicks had a full 15-man roster heading into trade deadline day, but they sent out three players – Cam Reddish, Ryan Arcidiacono, and Svi Mykhailiuk – in the multi-team deal that landed Josh Hart in New York.
As a result, the Knicks have been carrying just 13 players on standard contracts since February 9 and will have until this Thursday to add at least one player to their roster. Two-way player DaQuan Jeffries has been mentioned as a candidate for a possible promotion.
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets didn’t make any mismatched trades at the February 9 deadline, but they already had one open roster spot at that time and created another when they bought out Reggie Jackson after acquiring him from the Clippers.
Since Jackson was officially waived on February 12, the Hornets’ two-week window to add a 14th man will close on Feb. 26, so they still have a few days to make a decision on that spot. Promoting a two-way player (Theo Maledon or Bryce McGowens) is one option for Charlotte, though the team could also target a free agent for either a 10-day or rest-of-season contract.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets made a series of cuts after the trade deadline passed, waiving John Wall and buying out Danny Green and Justin Holiday. They did sign Boban Marjanovic during that time as well, so they only have two openings on their roster, rather than three. But they’ll have to add a 14th man by February 27, two weeks after Holiday was officially cut.
Again, the Rockets could choose to promote a two-way player, but Darius Days or Trevor Hudgins have barely played at the NBA level this season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Houston opt for a free agent or a G League call-up instead.
Utah Jazz
The Jazz had a full roster entering February 9, but traded four players for three in their deal with the Lakers and Timberwolves. They subsequently created two more roster openings by buying out Leandro Bolmaro (on Feb. 16) and Russell Westbrook (on Monday).
Because they first dipped below the 14-man minimum last Thursday, Utah will have until next Thursday (March 2) to add two players.
The 29-31 Jazz remain very much in the play-in mix, just a half-game behind the No. 10 Thunder, so it’s possible they could have interest in a veteran who could contribute immediately.
On the other hand, the Jazz’s deadline moves suggested management wasn’t focused on going all-out for a top-10 seed, so they may rather bring in young players they could develop — Utah could potentially sign those players to multiyear contracts that aren’t guaranteed beyond this season, allowing the team to take cheap fliers on a couple prospects.
[Note: The Jazz reached agreements to sign Frank Jackson and Kris Dunn to 10-day contracts a few hours after this story was published.]
Green More Locked In During Second Season
Jalen Green has improved his focus in his second season in the league, Rockets assistant coach Rick Higgins told Kelly Iko of The Athletic.
Rockets Notes: Green, Rebuild, Martin, Fertitta
A left groin strain forced Rockets guard Jalen Green to miss the Rising Stars event at All-Star weekend, but the team was “relieved” by the results of the MRI he underwent this week, a source tells Jonathan Feigen of The Houston Chronicle.
According to Feigen, the Rockets will have a better sense of Green’s return timeline early this week, after he has received a few days of treatment. However, there’s optimism that the injury shouldn’t result in a long-term absence.
If the strain was determined to be more severe, it could have sidelined the former No. 2 pick for most or all of Houston’s remaining 24 games, especially given that the lottery-bound club has no reason to rush one of its cornerstones back to action.
Here’s more on the Rockets:
- While general manager Rafael Stone is willing to face criticism for how the Rockets are building their roster, he bristles at critics who suggest that Houston is moving forward without a clear plan in place, per Brian T. Smith of The Houston Chronicle. “If you paid no attention at all, you could say, ‘Hey, these guys don’t even have a plan,'” Stone said. “No, we absolutely have a plan. We told everybody what the plan was. So I don’t think the ‘They don’t have a plan’ is a valid criticism. If someone wants to be skeptical about our ability to execute it, that’s TBD and we’re cognizant of that. And I think this summer we intend to use our cap space and bring in some veterans.”
- Rockets wing Kenyon Martin Jr., whose name came up frequently in trade rumors during the weeks leading up to February’s deadline, tells Shams Charania of Stadium (Twitter video link) that he’s happy he ultimately stayed put in Houston, where he’s averaging a career-high 26.3 minutes per game this season. “It was kind of weird,” Martin said. “Obviously it was my first time being in a situation where teams wanted me or there’s a possibility that Houston could get rid of me. But at the same time, I understood that it was nothing that I could control. … I kind of just left that up to the front office.”
- Interviewed by KPRC 2 in Houston at a Mardi Gras event in Galveston, Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta shouted what sounded like, “Pray for Victor!,” an apparent reference to top prospect Victor Wembanyama (Twitter video link via Sean Pendergast of SportsRadio 610). The 13-45 Rockets have the NBA’s worst record and would have the best lottery odds in this year’s draft if the season ended today, but the league still may not love seeing one of its team owners already talking about targeting a specific prospect, with so much time left in the season.
Jalen Green's Development Key To Rockets' Long-Term Plans
- Kelly Iko of The Athletic examines Jalen Green‘s development and explores how important the growth of the former No. 2 overall pick is in the Rockets‘ long-term plans. As Iko details, Houston wants to take a significant step forward next season — adding another lottery talent in the draft and having up to $60MM+ in cap room will help, but the team also needs its own young players to take a leap.
And-Ones: World Cup Qualifiers, Nike Summit, MVP Race, Rising Stars, Draft
With two more qualifying matches for the 2023 World Cup right around the corner, USA Basketball has officially announced the 12-man roster that will compete in February’s games. Team USA’s squad is made up primarily of G Leaguers, but features a number of players with NBA experience.
The 12 players who will represent the U.S. on February 23 vs. Uruguay and Feb. 26 vs. Brazil are Deonte Burton, Will Davis II, Abdul Gaddy, Langston Galloway, Treveon Graham, Dusty Hannahs, Nate Hinton, Jay Huff, Xavier Moon, Elijah Pemberton, Reggie Perry, and Craig Sword.
So far, Canada is the only team in the Americas field to qualify for the 2023 World Cup, having won all of its first 10 qualifying contests. However, Team USA – which has an 8-2 record so far – will clinch a World Cup berth by winning either one of its two games this month, tweets Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today.
Meanwhile, USA Basketball also announced the rosters for the 2023 Nike Hoop Summit, an annual showcase of U.S. high school prospects that will take place on April 8. The most notable name on the men’s roster is Bronny James, but Bronny isn’t the only son of a former Cavaliers lottery pick to be named to the event — the 13-player roster also includes Dajuan Wagner Jr.
Here are a few more odds and ends from around the basketball world:
- Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is building a strong case for his third consecutive MVP award and leads the way in the latest straw poll conducted by ESPN’s Tim Bontemps. Bontemps’ survey asks 100 media members for their current MVP ballots — Jokic received 77 first-place votes, easily besting runners-up Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks (11 first-place votes) and Joel Embiid of the Sixers (6).
- Rockets guard Jalen Green (left groin strain) and Pistons center Jalen Duren (right ankle sprain) have been forced to withdraw from Friday night’s Rising Stars event at All-Star weekend due to injuries, according to the NBA (Twitter link). They’re being replaced by Bulls guard Ayo Dosunmu and Rockets forward Tari Eason.
- In his latest mock draft for The Athletic, Sam Vecenie moves Alabama wing Brandon Miller up to No. 3, writing that Miller is considered the safest bet in the 2023 draft class – outside of Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson – to be a “really good player” at the NBA level. Vecenie’s top five is rounded out by Overtime Elite guard Amen Thompson at No. 4 and Houston forward Jarace Walker at No. 5.
Justin Holiday Signs With Mavs After Buyout With Rockets
FEBRUARY 15: Holiday’s new contract with the Mavericks is official, the team announced (via Twitter).
FEBRUARY 13, 9:05pm: Holiday has officially been waived by the Rockets, according to the NBA transactions log.
FEBRUARY 13, 12:17pm: Veteran swingman Justin Holiday has reached a buyout agreement with the Rockets and intends to sign with the Mavericks after he clears waivers, sources tell Brian Windhorst of ESPN.
Marc Stein reported Sunday evening (via Twitter) that the Mavs would be interested in Holiday if he was bought out by Houston. Dallas was also reportedly interested in Terrence Ross, who plans to sign with the Suns after being bought out by Orlando. However, according to Tim MacMahon of ESPN, Holiday was the Mavs’ top potential buyout target (Twitter link).
Holiday, 34, was sent to Houston from Atlanta as part of a cost-cutting trade by the Hawks. Now in his 10th season, Holiday didn’t get much playing time with Atlanta in 2022/23, making 28 appearances while averaging 4.5 points in 14.7 minutes per game.
A report after the trade indicated that the Rockets were interested in keeping Holiday around, perhaps even beyond this season. Obviously that didn’t work out, with Holiday spotted having an extended conversation with coach Stephen Silas during Monday’s shootaround (Twitter link via Kelly Iko of The Athletic).
The Mavs dealt away Dorian Finney-Smith as part of the Kyrie Irving trade, so Holiday will provide some additional depth on the wing. Dallas technically has a full 15-man roster, but big man Chris Silva is only on a 10-day deal — if Dallas wants to sign Holiday before the All-Star break, Silva’s contract would likely be ended early to make room for the newcomer.
NBA Announces All-Star Saturday Night Participants
It was quite a Valentine’s Day for Mac McClung. He was signed to a two-way contract by the Sixers and, hours later, was named as one of the four participants in this year’s Slam Dunk competition during All-Star weekend, according to an NBA press release.
He’ll be joined by the Rockets’ Kenyon Martin Jr., the Pelicans’ Trey Murphy III and the Knicks’ Jericho Sims.
The Skills Challenge will feature a brother act. Team Antetokounmpo, predictably, will include Giannis Antetokounmpo and Thanasis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks and Alex Antetokounmpo of the G League’s Wisconsin Herd.
Team Jazz will include Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler and Collin Sexton, while Team Rookies will feature top pick Paolo Banchero of the Magic, as well as the Pistons’ Jaden Ivey and the Rockets’ Jabari Smith Jr.
The participants in this year’s 3-point contest can be found here.