Fallout From Dwight Howard/Andrew Bynum Trade
The news of the night is the news of the year in the NBA: An agreement has been reached on a trade that sends Dwight Howard to the Lakers. Andrew Bynum is also involved, as he heads to the Sixers. Of course, both players are eligible to become unrestricted free agents next summer, so the rumor mill is unlikely to stop for either of them anytime soon. Nonetheless, it still represents a blockbuster and a major turning point for several teams in 2012/13 and beyond. Here's what writers around the league are saying:
- If the Lakers can't re-sign Howard next summer, the Mavs "will be there waiting for him," a source tells Marc Stein of ESPN.com. Howard has expressed fondness for the Mavs in the past. In the same report, Kobe Bryant is described as being "ecstatic" about the deal.
- Brian Kamenetzky of ESPNLosAngeles.com says Howard represents an upgrade over Bynum because of his defense, his athleticism, and his ability to fit better with Steve Nash.
- A few league executives believe there has to be something more in the deal for the Magic, tweets Vincent Goodwill of the Detroit News. Jarrod Rudolph of RealGM.com wonders why the Magic waited so long to make a deal when the offers never improved (Sulia link). Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel isn't sure any notable free agents would be interested in signing with the depleted Magic next summer (Sulia link).
- Bob Cooney of the Philadelphia Daily News says the Sixers now have the dominant big man team president Rod Thorn and coach Doug Collins have coveted. Cooney took to Twitter to say the trade is a coup for the Sixers, who get at least one season from Bynum and cap space if he leaves.
- Benjamin Hochman of the Denver Post says the Nuggets will lose some offense, but Andre Iguodala will allow them to make major strides on defense, where they've struggled in recent seasons.
- Tim Bontemps and Fred Kerber of the New York Post look at the deal from the perspective of the Nets, who were once considered frontrunners for Howard. Stefan Bondy of the New York Daily News says, via Twitter, that the deal demonstrates that the Magic were never too high on Brook Lopez.
- The Cavs were asked to give up a lot more for Bynum when they were a part of trade talks, says Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio (Sulia link).
Magic Close To Four-Team Howard Blockbuster
9:12pm: Stein says there are still unreported names in the deal, but the Magic are getting Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, Nikola Vucevic, Maurice Harkless and a future first-round pick from each of the other three teams in the deal. The Sixers will get Andrew Bynum and Jason Richardson. The Nuggets will get Andre Iguodala, and the Lakers will land Dwight Howard. Pau Gasol is not in the deal, Stein hears (All Twitter links).
8:59pm: A conference call has been scheduled for Friday morning with the league office to process the deal, Marc Stein of ESPN.com reports (Twitter link).
7:34pm: Berger says the most likely scenario involves the Magic getting neither Andrew Bynum nor Pau Gasol, adding credence to earlier reports that Gasol won't be a part of the deal (Twitter link).
7:29pm: Various Twitter reports indicate differing levels of confidence that the deal will get done. Chris Broussard of ESPN.com says the deal will happen "barring any last minute snag." ESPN.com colleague Ric Bucher believes the Magic and Lakers are pushing hard to complete the trade, but adds there are still many question marks. Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel says the talks are serious, but cautions there are a lot of moving parts. Ken Berger of CBSSports.com reports "guarded optimism" about the deal.
7:11pm: The deal has "huge legs," a source tells Dei Lynam of CSNPhilly.com, and the teams have made progress toward its completion today, Lynam tweets.
6:55pm: A source close to Gasol says he's not in the trade, Ric Bucher of ESPN.com tweets.
6:39pm: Chris Broussard of ESPN.com hears the deal is "very close" and could take place as early as Friday morning. Broussard says that Ramona Shelburne of ESPNLosAngeles also hears Gasol may not be a part of the trade. Jarrod Rudolph of RealGM.com tweets that there is greater confidence a Howard deal will get done than in the past. The Sixers are willing to take on Bynum even without assurances he'll re-sign next summer, according to the ESPN report.
6:23pm: Eric Pincus of HoopsWorld, in an updated version of an earlier story, says one of the variants of the deal doesn't include Gasol, and it's unclear whether it includes Al Harrington. Devin Ebanks, on a sign-and-trade, and Josh McRoberts may also be a part of the deal.
5:52pm: A source close to the talks tells HoopsWorld's Alex Kennedy that reports so far have the teams right, but the deal would likely include different players if it gets done, as the Magic, Lakers, Nuggets and Sixers discuss multiple scenarios. No deal is imminent or near completion, the source says (Twitter links).
5:41pm: Sixers center Nikola Vucevic would also go to the Magic as part of the deal, tweets Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports.
Southeast Rumors: Magic, Wizards, Sichting
Orlando is once again the center of the NBA universe as the Magic are reportedly working on yet another Dwight Howard trade. Sam Amick of SI.com provided an update earlier on the talks, and in his story he passed along a few comments from Magic CEO Alex Martins on how the team will proceed with Howard.
"We have very specific goals as to what we would hope to achieve if we were to trade Dwight, OK?" Martins said. "We acknowledge and are realistic about the fact that you're never going to get equal value in return for Dwight Howard. But if we were to trade him, we have three primary goals that we're trying to achieve and in the end, any deal that's proposed to us I think we've been very clear about the fact about the goals of what we're trying to achieve."
Martins didn't specify what the three goals are, but said the team hasn't delineated from its plan, and added that the ability to acquire "the right combination of pieces" in return for Howard will determine whether they make a deal. We've got more on the Magic and the rest of the Southeast Division here:
- The Wizards have hired Jerry Sichting as an assistant coach, the team reports on its website. Sichting has 24 years of NBA experience as a player, assistant coach, and front office executive, but spent last season coaching Martinsville High School, his alma mater, in Indiana.
- Vincent Goodwill of the Detroit News tweets that Harold Ellis, director of pro personnel for the Pistons, is jumping to the Magic to work in a similar capacity. He follows Scott Perry, who left the Pistons in June to become Orlando's assistant GM.
- Scott Howard-Cooper of NBA.com doesn't think the latest Howard deal makes sense for the Magic (Twitter link). Andy Kamenetzky of ESPNLosAngeles.com also looks at what each side might get in the deal, and believes the Sixers are the only team that would benefit. The deal remains fluid, though, and some of the players currently said to be part of the deal may not be included.
Pincus On Howard, Bynum, Gasol, Green, Clippers
Sources tell Eric Pincus of HoopsWorld that the Lakers would be "far more comfortable" building around Dwight Howard rather than Andrew Bynum. If today's rumored four-team trade comes to fruition, the Lakers would get their wish. Pincus has a few more items of note in his latest piece, and we'll hit the highlights here:
- If the Rockets can't land Howard or Bynum, they might have interest in acquiring Pau Gasol if he's dealt to the Magic, Pincus says. Gasol would net the Magic fewer assets than if they dealt Howard to the Rockets, but Pincus believes it would still be a solid haul.
- The Lakers have their $3.09MM taxpayer's mini mid-level exception available, but are reluctant to tie it up with a trade for Howard still in play.
- Pincus has the details on Willie Green's deal with the Clippers, who acquired the veteran shooting guard in a sign-and-trade last month. It's a three-year deal for $4.2MM, but only the first season, at $1.375MM, is fully guaranteed. He also looks at the multiple trade exceptions held by the Clippers, which gave the team a choice when they acquired Green. The team opted to use part of a $2.76MM exception left over from dealing Al-Farouq Aminu in the Chris Paul trade.
Odds & Ends: Bobcats, Kapono, Griffin, Mavs
The Bobcats have been linked to a number of power forwards this summer, including Carl Landry, Antawn Jamison, and Louis Amundson. However, Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer says (via Twitter) that the idea Charlotte is "desperate" to add another power forward is off base. Here are a few more Thursday afternoon odds and ends from around the Association:
- Jason Kapono turned down an offer to play for Orleans in France, according to Gabriel Pantel-Jouve of Catch and Shoot (French link).
- According to Chris Haynes of CSNNW.com, the Bulls turned down the Magic when Orlando asked permission to interview Chicago assistant Adrian Griffin for its lead assistant position. The Bulls appear to only be allowing Griffin to interview for head coach openings, says Haynes.
- Earl K. Sneed of Mavs.com wonders how the Mavericks stack up against their Western Conference foes, following the team's offseason moves.
- Having signed a three-year deal with the Suns, Michael Beasley is looking forward to getting a fresh start in Phoenix, as he tells Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld.
- Lang Greene of HoopsWorld identifies a few teams whose summer acquistions may have them ready to make the leap from the lottery to the playoffs in 2012/13.
Free Agent Spending By Division: Southeast
While a handful of free agents are still on the market and many will sign deals in the coming weeks, the brunt of the offseason spending is now complete. Using Hoops Rumors' Free Agent Tracker, we'll be looking back at this summer's free agent signings, checking in on which teams were the offseason's big spenders and which teams were relatively quiet. Our look at summer spending starts with the Southeast Division, and will eventually continue to cover the other five divisions.
These figures only take into account free agent signings, so salary absorbed in trades or money used to sign draft picks isn't included in this list. Additionally, not all of this salary is necessarily guaranteed, which we'll try to note as we go along. Here are the Southeast's expenditures in free agency, sorted by player salary:
Orlando Magic: $25.2MM (Jameer Nelson)
Besides adding rookies Andrew Nicholson and Kyle O'Quinn, the Magic really only made one signing, inking Nelson to a three-year deal. Not all of the $25.2MM is guaranteed, but Nelson will make a guaranteed $8.6MM in each of the first two seasons of the contract, which certainly isn't an inconsequential commitment for a team looking to create cap flexibility.
Atlanta Hawks: $22.396MM (Lou Williams, DeShawn Stevenson)
A necessary add-on via sign-and-trade in the Joe Johnson blockbuster with the Nets, Stevenson required a three-year deal, but only the first year is guaranteed. Unless Stevenson really impresses the Hawks this year, he'll likely be let go after the season, reducing the Hawks' total summer-2012 commitments to about $17.9MM. Most of that, of course, comes from Williams' deal, which is worth the full mid-level — $15.675MM over three years. Despite being the division's second-biggest spender in free agency, the Hawks cleared a ton of money from their books this offseason by moving Johnson and Marvin Williams.
Miami Heat: $12.439MM (Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis)
Lewis will earn a veteran's minimum worth over $1.3MM from the Heat in each season of his two-year deal. However, his salary will only count toward the team's cap for about $854K in 2012/13 and $884K in 2013/14, shaving a little over $1MM off the Heat's free agent bill. Allen and Lewis also have player options in the final years of their contracts, so Miami's overall price tag for the two players could end up being as little as about $7.17MM, if both opt out early.
Charlotte Bobcats: $10MM (Ramon Sessions)
It was hard to imagine coming into the offseason that the 7-59 Bobcats would be able to attract many desirable free agents to Charlotte. That's turned out to be the case, for the most part, as the club's pursuits of Carl Landry, Antawn Jamison, and others have come up short so far. Sessions was willing to take the Bobcats' money though, signing a two-year deal worth $5MM annually.
Washington Wizards: $1.801MM (A.J. Price, Cartier Martin)
The Wizards have talked about all year about using the trade market as a way of avoiding free agency. They acquired players on expensive, multiyear deals, such as Nene, Emeka Okafor, and Trevor Ariza, noting that it was easier to bring aboard a player whose salary was set in stone rather than trying to negotiate with free agents. So far this summer, the team has stuck to its word, seemingly avoiding the market entirely, except for a pair of minimum-salary deals. The Wizards will pay about $854K of both Price's and Martin's salaries, making Washington's total bill in free agency so far just $1.71MM.
Magic Sign Kyle O’Quinn
THURSDAY, 8:10am: O'Quinn's deal with the Magic will pay him a guaranteed $788K in year one, with non-guaranteed salaries in years two and three, according to Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. Because he's making more than the rookie minimum, O'Quinn's salary will come out of the Magic's $5MM mid-level exception, which the team had yet to use.
WEDNESDAY, 8:07pm: Kyle O'Quinn has signed a three-year, $2.5MM deal with the Magic, his agent tells Adam Zagoria of SNY TV (via Twitter). Orlando drafted the forward in the second-round with the 49th overall pick. It's not yet known if the contract is partially or fully guaranteed.
O'Quinn, 22, emerged as an NBA prospect beginning in his junior campaign at Norfolk State. As a senior, O'Quinn put up 15.9 PPG and 10.3 RPG for the Spartans as he led them to a remarkable upset over No. 2 Missouri in the first-round of the NCAA tournament. While the power forward was counted on for offensive production in college, he stands out for his strong defensive play and was named MEAC Defensive Player of the Year last season.
Contract Scenarios For Howard, Paul, Bynum
A quick perusal of Hoops Rumors' list of 2013/14 free agents reveals three unrestricted free agents that figure to land maximum-salary contracts: Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Andrew Bynum. Just because those three guys are hitting free agency at the same time though doesn't mean they're all eligible for identical salaries when signing their next deals.
There are essentially three ways these players could sign their next max-salary contracts:
- They could sign extensions with their current teams, which would mean adding just three extra years to their current contracts.
- They could become free agents and re-sign with the team that holds their Bird Rights, for up to five years with 7.5% annual raises.
- They could become free agents and sign with a new team, for up to four years and 4.5% annual raises.
It's no secret that the second scenario maximizes the amount of guaranteed money a player can earn on his next contract — this detail of the CBA allows teams a better shot to retain their own star free agents. If the player wants to leave badly enough, he can sign elsewhere, but he'd be giving up millions in guaranteed money to do it.
So how much exactly would each player make in each of these three scenarios? Let's run through and break them down….
Three-year extension:
While the maximum extension a veteran can sign is actually for four years, that includes the current season, so only three years are new. Additionally, while players can typically earn 107.5% of their previous salary in the first year of an extension, all three of these guys are already making more than the maximum, so the can't exceed the 105% they'd earn in the first year of a free agent contract. These extensions include 7.5% annual raises, but even Howard's $66MM pales in comparison to what he could earn as a free agent.
Five-year free agent contract:
Howard, Paul, and Bynum would all be eligible for contracts in excess of $100MM if they wait until next summer and re-sign with the clubs with whom they finish the 2012/13 season. This is why the team that holds the player's Bird Rights at season's end will be considered the odds-on favorite to re-sign him, a scenario we saw play out earlier this summer, when Deron Williams re-upped with the Nets for five years and $98MM+. These max contracts start at 105% of the players' 2012/13 salaries and include 7.5% annual raises.
Four-year free agent contract:
Players can, of course, re-sign for four years or less with their end-of-year teams and receive raises up to 7.5%, but this scenario assumes they're signing with a new club, limiting their annual raises to 4.5%. As the charts show, the drop-off in guaranteed money from a max five-year deal is precarious, from about $26MM for Bynum to over $30MM for Howard. Assuming these guys are still performing at an elite level in 2017, they'll make up a good chunk of that salary in the 2017/18 year of their next contracts, but it's hard to guarantee elite production and good health that far in advance.
As I outlined when I examined Bynum's case for a contract extension, it's possible he could benefit from taking a shorter-term extension now, maximizing his career earnings later. Some of the arguments in that piece apply to Paul and Howard to a lesser degree as well. But an agent of a star player in his prime will rarely recommend that his client accept anything less than a maximum guarantee. In each of these three players' cases, the likeliest scenario remains a five-year free agent contract next summer, which is why these next few months will be crucial. The teams that end up with these three stars at season's end will be the overwhelming favorites to retain them long-term.
Hedo Turkoglu Hopes To Finish Career In Turkey
Hedo Turkoglu's short-term future remains up in the air, as he continues to be linked to Dwight Howard trade talks as a contract the Magic would like to move. While his short-term destination may ultimately be out of his hands, Turkoglu has an idea of where he'd like to eventually finish his playing career. The veteran forward told Hurriyet.com.tr (Turkish link) that he'd like to eventually play for a year in Turkey before retiring.
"I have two more years remaining in my current contract," said Turkoglu (translation via HoopsHype). "If my body holds up, I want to play a few more years and plan to retire in Turkey playing my final season in Turkish league."
Turkoglu's contract with the Magic is guaranteed for about $11.82MM this season, and includes an early termination option for 2013/14. Although Turkoglu will likely waive the ETO and opt in to the final year of that deal, the $12MM option is only guaranteed for $6MM, making him a candidate to be waived or traded.
I would expect that when his current deal expires, the 33-year-old will be able to secure at least one more NBA deal. However, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him entertaining international offers from clubs in Turkey or elsewhere in the summer of 2014, when he'll be 35.
Magic Searching For Third Point Guard
MONDAY, 10:08am: Ish Smith is expected to take part in training camp with the Magic, tweets HoopsWorld's Steve Kyler, though no deal between Smith and the club has been reported. Smith spent the latter part of 2011/12 with the Magic after signing in February for the rest of the season.
SATURDAY, 4:26pm: Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel breaks down the remaining offseason priorities for the Magic. Resolving the Dwight Howard situation is high on the list, of course, but so is finding a third point guard to slot behind Jameer Nelson and Chris Duhon. Robbins says the team will "definitely" have another point guard on the roster by the start of the season, and adds that bringing back Ish Smith to compete with Duhon for the backup role is a possibility.
The Magic have the full $5MM mid-level exception at their disposal, but it's doubtful they'd use all of it sign someone from the paltry list of remaining unrestricted free agent point guards. No restricted free agent point guard are left. They could go with a veteran option, like Mike Bibby or Jannero Pargo, or turn to a younger player like Jonny Flynn or Armon Johnson. Gilbert Arenas is still on the market, but since the Magic used the amnesty clause to waive him before the start of last season, he's ineligible to sign with the team until 2014/15, after his contract with the Magic was to have expired.
Sundiata Gaines, who averaged 5.1 points and 2.2 assists in 13.9 minutes as a backup for the Nets last season, could be the best option. He's the only unsigned free agent point guard who put up a PER of at least 15.0, the mark of an average player. That's decidedly better than the 5.6 and 8.4 PERs Duhon has compiled in his two seasons with the Magic after signing a four-year, $13.25MM contract. Still, all of this is just my speculation, as the Magic haven't been linked to any of these options.
The Magic could also acquire a point guard via trade, but it seems like any such move would be on the backburner until the team figures out what it's going to do with Howard.