During the summer of 2017, after a second straight dispiriting postseason loss to the Cavaliers, the Raptors doubled down on their core, re-signing Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka to lucrative new contracts and bringing back head coach Dwane Casey. With the help of a new offensive scheme – attributed in large part to assistant Nick Nurse – Toronto earned the No. 1 seed in the East last season, winning a franchise-best 59 games.
However, after the Cavaliers once again dismantled the Raptors in the playoffs, the team couldn’t simply run it back again. Casey, despite being named the NBA’s Coach of the Year, was dismissed and replaced by Nurse. And DeMar DeRozan, the team’s MVP in 2017/18, was sent to San Antonio in a blockbuster trade that landed the Raptors Kawhi Leonard, a legit two-way star.
The acquisition of Leonard was a huge roll of the dice for president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri, who later told reporters that the two-time All-NBA forward represents the sort of perennial MVP candidate that the Raptors have never had on their roster before. That’s undoubtedly true, but Kawhi is also coming off a season in which he only played nine games due to a quad injury. Plus, he’s eligible for free agency in 2019, meaning his stay in Toronto could be short-lived.
It’s a thrilling gamble for a team that needed to take one. Even with longtime tormentor LeBron James no longer in the Eastern Conference, the Raptors were about to be surpassed by the Celtics and Sixers and were no lock to take a step forward in 2018/19 with their old roster. Ujiri’s offseason shakeup raises Toronto’s ceiling for 2018/19.
Key offseason losses:
DeRozan’s inclusion in the Leonard trade came as a shock to the All-NBA guard, who claimed he’d been told by Ujiri that he wouldn’t be moved anytime soon. The 29-year-old had spent his entire nine-year NBA career in Toronto, appearing in more games and scoring more points than any other player in team history, so it made sense that he’d be surprised and hurt by the unexpected move.
While DeRozan was never a strong defender, the Raptors will miss his scoring and play-making. He averaged at least 23 points per game in each of the last three seasons, and never stopped trying to expand his game — he recorded a career-high 5.2 APG and 1.1 3PG in 2017/18.
Jakob Poeltl was also included in the deal with the Spurs and shouldn’t be viewed as a mere afterthought in that package. Poeltl helped anchor the NBA’s best second unit in 2017/18, providing the Raptors with the sort of athleticism at the five that Jonas Valanciunas and newly-added big man Greg Monroe don’t possess. Poeltl, 2016’s ninth overall pick, is entering his age-23 season, so he should only improve in San Antonio.
The Raptors’ other departing player of note is Lucas Nogueira. The former first-round pick only played sporadically last season, but he served as a sort of wild card off the bench, providing a jolt of energy and occasionally providing momentum-changing plays when he got into games. Given how deep Toronto’s bench still is, losing Nogueira shouldn’t have a major impact.
Key offseason additions:
Outside of perhaps LeBron, no player who changed teams during the 2018 offseason has the potential to have a greater impact than Leonard. Replacing one All-NBA player with another may seem like a marginal upgrade on the surface, but Kawhi’s two-way ability could make him a much more valuable piece than DeRozan — while DeRozan often had to be hidden on the other team’s least dangerous offensive player, Leonard is capable of shutting down an opponent’s best scorer in a given night.
Offensively, Leonard may not quite possess the talent as a pure scorer that DeRozan has, but his ability to knock down three-pointers (38.6% in his career, compared to DeRozan’s 28.8%) makes him a better fit for the Raptors’ system. Plus, before he first went down with his leg injury during the Western Conference Semifinals in 2017, Kawhi was showing off a new level of of scoring and play-making ability. If Nurse is able to continue to unlock that ability and Leonard can stay healthy, an MVP-caliber season isn’t out of the question.
The other player involved in the Spurs trade shouldn’t be overlooked either — Danny Green provides the Raptors with yet another versatile rotation option in a league that highly values three-and-D wings like him. Green’s three-point shooting has dropped off a little in recent years, as he’s posted a .357 3PT% in the last three seasons after putting up a .423 3PT% in the four previous seasons. Still, he’s only one year removed from earning a spot on the league’s All-Defensive Second Team and should provide Toronto with steady minutes.
Besides re-signing Fred VanVleet, an important bench piece, to a reasonable two-year contract, the Raptors’ other notable move on the free agent market was adding Monroe. The veteran center isn’t exactly the sort of modern-day center who you want on the floor during a fast-paced, small-ball type game, but he has value, particularly at the minimum salary. He has also played well against the Raptors over the last couple years, averaging 13.0 PPG and 8.0 RPG in just 23.7 MPG during his last 10 games against the team. It’s not clear how much of a role Monroe will have in Toronto, but the signing should pay off in certain matchups.
Outlook for 2018/19:
The Raptors have won between 48 and 59 games in each of the last five seasons, but have yet to establish themselves as a serious threat in the postseason, having been swept out of the playoffs by the Cavs in consecutive years. This roster is capable of changing that — and, of course, it doesn’t hurt that LeBron is now a Laker.
The common narrative is that the Raptors will go as far as Kawhi can take them, and that’s probably true. Leonard can be one of the league’s very best players when he’s healthy, and he’ll be invaluable in the playoffs, where Toronto has lacked a defensive stopper to match up with stars like James.
Still, Leonard isn’t the only thing the Raptors have going for them. The team’s young core of VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, and Delon Wright is an underrated one. Even if this season takes a wrong turn and Leonard decides to skip town at season’s end, the franchise has reasons to be optimistic about its future.
Of course, the Raptors are hoping it won’t come to that. With a healthy Leonard, they’re equipped to make a legit run at the Eastern Conference crown and to make a strong case to Kawhi that he ought to consider staying in Toronto for a few more years.
Salary information from Basketball Insiders was used in the creation of this post. Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Standard contracts:
