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What March 1st Means For The NBA

Ah, Leap Day. Most years, we'd already have flipped the calendar to March by now, but 2012 gives us that extra day in February, which may be either a blessing and a curse for various NBA teams and players. March 1st represents an important date for the Association for a number of reasons, so let's run through them:

Offseason signees can be traded

One of this season's rules, under the league's new Collective Bargaining Agreement, permits teams to trade recently-signed free agents after two months or on March 1st, whichever date is later. So players who signed as unrestricted free agents before the season got underway will all become eligible to be traded starting on March 1st. If the Magic want to include Glen Davis or Jason Richardson in a Dwight Howard trade, they could do it tomorrow, but not today.

For some players, less than two months have passed since they signed their current contracts. In those cases, they won't be eligible to be traded quite yet. For instance, someone like Nate Robinson, who signed with the Warriors on January 4th, could be included in a trade as of March 4th. Players like Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith, who signed as free agents in February, won't be eligible to be traded this season, since the March 15th deadline will have passed before they reach that two-month mark. Some restricted free agents also won't be eligible to be dealt until later in March because of certain CBA rules, as Marc Stein of ESPN.com outlined earlier this month.

With restrictions on dozens of players set to be lifted tomorrow, league executives are anticipating an increase in trade discussions over the next two weeks.

Restricted free agents can't sign offer sheets

We've discussed this point extensively when it comes to Wilson Chandler, the only big-name restricted free agent to return from overseas early enough to sign an offer sheet. Starting tomorrow, Chandler won't be eligible to sign an offer sheet with a team besides the Nuggets. If he isn't able to secure a rival offer, Chandler will only be able to play for the Nuggets this season. Since Denver has shown no interest in a rest-of-season deal, Chandler's options would be limited to either signing a multiyear deal (with little leverage), or sitting out the season and exploring restricted free agency again this summer.

Other players still playing overseas, such as Aaron Brooks, will also be affected by this rule. When Brooks returns, he'll only be eligible to rejoin the Suns. If Brooks' Chinese team makes a deep run in the CBA playoffs and Brooks isn't cleared to return to the NBA until late March, he may simply to decide to sit out the rest of the season and become a restricted free agent again this offseason.

The Sacramento deadline

The NBA had set a March 1st deadline for negotiations on Sacramento's arena proposal. Fortunately, it appears an agreement is in place to keep the Kings in Sacramento long-term.

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Largest Expiring Contracts Of 2011/12

While a team may not be thrilled to see one of its top players approaching free agency, expiring contracts are a valuable asset in the NBA. If a team has one or more large contracts set to expire, it stands to gain a good chunk of cap flexibility going forward. Players on expiring contracts can be used as trade chips, but the higher the salary, the trickier it is to find a suitable trade partner. As such, many of the impending free agents listed below will simply finish the season with their current clubs.

Here are the largest 2011/12 salaries set to come off the books this summer (minimum $5MM):

Kevin Garnett, Celtics: $21.25MM
Tim Duncan, Spurs: $21.16MM
Antawn Jamison, Cavaliers: $15.08MM
Chris Kaman, Hornets: $14.03MM
Steve Nash, Suns: $11.69MM
Jason Terry, Mavericks: $11.16MM
Marcus Camby, Trail Blazers: $11.07MM
Mehmet Okur, Nets: $10.89MM
Ray Allen, Celtics: $10MM
Jason Kidd, Mavericks: $9.62MM
Boris Diaw, Bobcats: $9MM
Carl Landry, Hornets: $8.5MM
Kirk Hinrich, Hawks: $8.1MM
Kris Humphries, Nets: $8MM
Andre Miller, Nuggets: $7.81MM
Leandro Barbosa, Raptors: $7.6MM
Raymond Felton, Trail Blazers: $7.56MM
Kwame Brown, Warriors: $6.75MM
Grant Hill, Suns: $6.5MM
* Michael Beasley, Timberwolves: $6.26MM
Jermaine O'Neal, Celtics: $6.23MM
* O.J. Mayo, Grizzlies: $5.63MM
Hasheem Thabeet, Rockets: $5.13MM

Additional notes:

  • Players marked with an asterisk will be eligible for restricted free agency if their respective teams extend them qualifying offers.
  • The Lakers and 76ers hold team options for Andrew Bynum and Andres Nocioni, respectively. Bynum's option will likely be exercised, but Nocioni's won't, clearing his $6.65MM 2011/12 cap figure.
  • A number of $5MM+ players have non-guaranteed contracts for next season: Kyle Korver, Lamar Odom, Samuel Dalembert, Martell Webster, Rashard Lewis, and J.J. Redick could all be bought out, taking a portion of their salaries off the cap.

Storytellers Contracts was used in the creation of this list.

Analysis: How Teams, All-Stars Part Ways

With the All-Star Game set for this evening in Orlando, home of Dwight Howard for who knows how much longer, there’s no better time to take a look at recent All-Stars and how some of them ended up changing teams.

The new collective bargaining agreement reached at the end of last year’s lockout included provisions designed to incentivize a free agent’s loyalty to his team and encourage trades.  We heard plenty about putting teams back in control of their players’ destinies in the wake of LeBron’s 2010 decision and the Melo-drama of last season. And, thanks in large measure to Mark Cuban, we continue to hear about that.  Nonetheless, among the 56 players who made All-Star teams during the previous CBA, from 2005/06 to 2010/11, there were three times as many who were traded away from their teams than there were who left as free agents.

That doesn’t mean some of those 21 traded All-Stars didn’t exert pressure on their teams to trade them. Yet in every one of those trades, the teams ultimately made the decision to part ways, and received compensation in return (in some cases, another All-Star). There were also four more All-Stars who were involved in sign-and-trades or extend-and-trades, hybrid moves in which players and teams all wield varying degrees of influence over the transaction. Only seven All-Stars simply left their teams via free agency.

The six-year period we’re looking at here is a relatively small sample size, and doesn’t take into consideration players who made All-Star teams before the 2005 CBA was in effect or account for transactions that have occurred under the terms of the new CBA, like the Chris Paul trade. It doesn’t include players who will leave their teams in the future, either. It’s an unscientific study, but it does reveal that teams have had greater control over top-level talent in recent years than they’ve let on.

Here are a few more findings:

  • The study covers players who were selected to appear in at least one All-Star Game, even if they didn’t play or were late additions to the roster. Ten of the 56 total All-Stars represented multiple teams, and Allen Iverson was an All-Star for three different franchises — the Nuggets, Pistons and Sixers.
  • The majority of the All-Stars were still on the roster of the last team they represented in the All-Star Game when the CBA expired last year. That group of 33 players includes Yao Ming, who didn’t announce his retirement until July of last year despite missing the entire 2010/11 season.
  • One All-Star and his team parted ways in an unusual fashion. The Sixers released a statement on March 2, 2010 stating that Iverson would not be returning to the team. Iverson’s page on Basketball Reference states that he was released by the team on that date, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Iverson, who hasn’t played a game in the NBA since, still counts as a cap hold on the Sixers roster for the two-year veteran’s minimum of more than $850K.
  • Among players who did not remain with their teams, there wasn’t too much time between their All-Star selections and the date of separation. Those players finished an average of 2.18 seasons with their teams after appearing on All-Star rosters. Two of the quickest departures occurred last season, when Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams were traded two and three days, respectively, after the All-Star Game.

League To Make 13-Man Rosters Permanent

The hectic post-lockout schedule will be gone next year, but one vestige of the 2011 lockout looks like it will remain. Chris Sheridan of Sheridan Hoops reports the league's competition committee will recommend to the NBA Board of Governors that the 13-man active roster be made permanent.

Sheridan notes all 30 team representatives on the committee voted in favor of the change, in response to coaches and general managers who like the added flexibility they've experienced this year. The 13-man active roster was implemented earlier this season to help with the compressed schedule, but the roster size was originally supposed to go back to 12 at midseason. The league then said in January that the 13-man would stay in place throughout the season and the playoffs.

Traditionally, only 12 active players have been allowed each game, though teams could carry between one and three additional inactive players on the roster.

“The sentiment amongst the committee is you’re required to have a 13-man roster as it is, and if you’re required to have a 13-man roster, you should be able to dress and have their services available,” NBA vice president Stu Jackson said, according to the Sheridan report.

The committee is also recommending that waivers be allowed to process on the weekend. As it is, a player waived after the close of business on a Friday would not clear waivers until Tuesday.

 

 

 

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Trade Rules In The New CBA

The NBA's new Collective Bargaining Agreement carried many rules over from the 2005 agreement between the owners and players, but a number of key changes have been implemented. As this year's trade deadline nears, here's a rundown of a few trade rules, old and new, that may be helpful as you follow the latest rumors:

Read more

Seattle Officially Announces Proposal For Arena

According to an Associated Press report, Seattle native Christopher Hansen is making a $290MM proposal for a new sports arena in an effort to lure an NBA (and NHL) team to Seattle.  As we outlined earlier, Hansen's announcement was expected, but it became official on Thursday evening. 

The pitch apparently includes $290MM in private investment in addition to the cost to acquire an NBA franchise — both of which would combine to construct the new arena estimated at $450MM to $500MM in cost. 

The deal hinges on Hansen's group finding an NBA franchise willing to move to Seattle and sign a 30-year no-relocation clause.  The inability to build a new arena was the root cause for the SuperSonic franchise relocating to Oklahoma City in 2008.  The proposal will now go to a review board with a ruling expected within a month.

Trail Blazers' owner Paul Allen, who voted against letting the Sonics leave town, released a statement in support of the progression of Hansen's proposal to bring a team back to Seattle.  Allen lives in Seattle and also owns the Seahawks of the NFL. 

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Veteran Contract Extensions Under The New CBA

Addressing Dwight Howard's upcoming contract options, Steve Kyler and Larry Coon of HoopsWorld did a good job breaking down the reasons why we won't see many big in-season contract extensions for veterans under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Fourth-year players like Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love still have incentive to sign long-term deals, since they'd only be eligible for restricted free agency if they played out the season. While those two players agreed to sign for less money than they may have qualified for, signing in-season extensions didn't restrict the years or raises they could receive.

However, for players no longer on their rookie contracts, signing an extension before the season ends will limit their earning potential. Under the new CBA, a player can extend for only four total years (with 7.5% annual raises), which includes the years remaining on his current deal. So a player in the last year of his contract could extend his deal by three additional seasons.

By comparison, veterans with Bird rights are eligible to sign free agent contracts for up to five years. As such, players like Howard and Deron Williams, who expect to sign max deals, have no reason to sign before they hit free agency, even if they intend to stay with their current teams.

Further restrictions are placed on recently-traded players, which could come into effect for Howard in the coming weeks. During the six-month period after being traded (or until June 30th, whichever comes first), a player can sign an extension for three total years, with 4.5% raises — the same restrictions that apply to extend-and-trade transactions.

For a practical example of the CBA's rules, let's examine the case of Chris Paul, who is under contract through next season after committing to his 2012/13 player option. While we don't know whether Paul will want to remain in Los Angeles long-term, let's assume he wants to be a Clipper for the rest of his career. Here are his options for a max contract extension:

  • He could sign an extension before June 15th (six months after his trade) for three total years and 4.5% annual raises, which would add only a single year to his current contract.
  • He could sign an extension after June 15th for four total years and 7.5% annual raises. Assuming he waited until the new season begins on July 1st, he could add as many as three extra years to his current deal.
  • He could wait until his contract expires at the end of the 2012/13 season, then sign for five new years with 7.5% annual raises.

The limits placed on extensions mean superstars expecting max contracts have little reason not to play out their deals and hit free agency. So don't expect to see Paul, Howard, or Williams signing an extension anytime soon.