Free Agent Stock Watch: Paul Millsap
I examined Al Jefferson's free agent stock this weekend, and since his future seems tied to Paul Millsap, it makes sense to follow with a look at the other Jazz big man who could be on the move. The Jazz will likely re-sign one, but not the other, according to Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio, and the majority of Hoops Rumors readers who answered last night's poll believe Utah should keep Jefferson over Millsap. Utah has dropped few, if any, hints about which they're more likely to keep, but it seems safe to assume there's at least a 50-50 chance Millsap is playing elsewhere next season.
Millsap could just as easily have been playing on another team already if it weren't for the desire of the Miller family, owners of the Jazz, to stay competitive this season rather than break up the team's core via trade. The Jazz and Pacers reportedly discussed a deal that would send Millsap and Alec Burks to Indiana in exchange for Danny Granger and Lance Stephenson, though I'm not sure how seriously the Pacers would have pursued that swap, since Millsap and David West play the same position. It might have been a hedge against losing West in free agency, since the Pacers will only have Early Bird rights on West this summer, instead of the full Bird rights they would have had on Millsap if they traded for him. If West bolts in the offseason, Indiana could still turn to Millsap, and perhaps the Pacers would view Millsap as an upgrade.
West has said he wants to return to the Pacers, but if he has a change of heart, he and Millsap will likely compete for top billing among free agent power forwards. Much as there are similarities between Millsap and Jefferson, West and Millsap are also hard to differentiate. Millsap grabs a half-rebound more per game than West, and though Millsap is only averaging 15.0 points per contest to West's 17.3, that's offset by West's more frequent shot attempts. Their PERs are separated by two-tenths of a point. Where Millsap has the edge is in age, since, at 28, he's four and a half years younger than the 32-year-old West.
That means fewer teams could have reserverations about signing Millsap to a four-year deal, the most years he could get if he leaves Utah. The key is finding a team with enough cap room to accomodate what will likely be an eight-figure annual salary. The Clippers had interest in Millsap at the deadline, but their cap space appears targeted for Chris Paul, and I don't think they want to pair Millsap with Blake Griffin, another power forward, long-term. That's also why the Wolves, who also engaged in Millsap trade talks with the Jazz earlier this season, don't make sense as long as Kevin Love is around.
The Blazers were reportedly eyeing Millsap at the deadline, too, and they seem a somewhat more plausible destination. Portland, under previous management, signed Millsap to an offer sheet back in 2009. LaMarcus Aldridge occupies the power forward position for the Blazers, but at 6'11", he could shift to center if the team lets free agent J.J. Hickson go. Portland will have only about $43.2MM in commitments this summer, which should leave plenty of room to go after Millsap.
The Nets seemed eager to deal for Millsap at different points this year, but they're poised to be well into the tax this offseason, with no room to add any marquee free agents. The Jazz would like to work a sign-and-trade involving either Millsap or Jefferson, but the Nets won't be able to engage in a sign-and-trade for Millsap or anyone else, since the new CBA bars taxpayers from acquiring players via sign-and-trade beginning this summer.
The Rockets, Spurs, Hawks and Bucks are likely to be the only teams among those headed to the playoffs this year with the cap room to add a maximum salary player in the offseason. Unlike Jefferson, I don't believe there's any way Millsap will be able to command a max contract, but I think he could wind up with a starting salary of anywhere from $12MM to $15MM, depending on his priorities. He could probably sign for the higher amount with a non-contender, while a playoff team might convince him to bring his price down to the low end of that range. If the Jazz don't bring him back, I expect Millsap, who's used to winning in Utah, to sign with a team that can continue to give him a chance to compete.
Odds & Ends: Lakers, Jazz, Marbury, Draft, Frank
SBNation's Tom Ziller looks at Basketball-Reference statistics to examine players who've significantly outperformed their contracts this season. Not surprisingly, Chandler Parsons, in the middle of a four-year, $3.63MM contract that runs through 2015, rates highly. Many of the other players Ziller mentions are either minimum-salary signees or former first-round picks still on their rookie-scale deals. There's more on a few players who could be the next to sign rookie contracts and other news from around the Association, as we share here:
- Jordan Hill was expected to be out for the season with a hip injury, but doctors have told him there's a slim chance he could return in late April or early May, reports Mark Medina of the Los Angeles Daily News. Either way, the Lakers will get to keep the $1.78MM disabled player exception the league granted them, even though they don't intend to use it.
- The Jazz haven't decided whether to re-sign Travis Leslie, whose 10-day contract expires Wednesday night, but coach Tyrone Corbin likes what he's seen so far from the swingman, notes Steve Luhm of The Salt Lake Tribune.
- Stephon Marbury, who played for the Chinese league's Beijing Ducks this season, will serve as an assistant coach for Beijing's entry in the China National Games this year, reports Jon Pastuszek of NiuBBall.com.
- HoopsWorld and Chris Mannix of SI.com examine key NBA draft prospects in the NCAA tournament. Joel Brigham of HoopsWorld checks in with a list of prospects on teams likely to make early tournament exits.
- Coach Lawrence Frank is back with the Pistons after missing the past six games to be with his wife, who's recovering from "major surgery," as MLive's David Mayo details.
- John Mitchell of the Philadelphia Inquirer believes the Sixers should go after Al Jefferson rather than Andrew Bynum in free agency this summer, though it might take an inflated contract to make it happen. Yesterday, I argued a max deal could be in play for Jefferson.
Poll: Which Big Man Should The Jazz Keep?
Last week, we heard that the Jazz are expected to retain either Al Jefferson or Paul Millsap, but not both. Both big men are headed for unrestricted free agency and the club will likely seek out a sign-and-trade deal for whichever player that they don't keep so that they don't come away empty-handed. In a perfect world, Utah would keep both in the fold, but with Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter both figuring to see more playing time in the years to come, it doesn't make sense to cut back elsewhere to keep both players.
Regardless of which player you like more, it's certainly not a slam dunk decision. Yes, Jefferson makes significantly more this season than Millsap ($15MM versus $7.2MM) but both players are likely to command similar deals this offseason. They both have PERs of 20.6 and the age gap is only a matter of days.
Jefferson, at 6'10" can be plugged in at the center position easily, which can't be said for the 6'8" Millsap. Jefferson, however, hasn't developed as well on the defensive side of the ball as Utah would have liked. He's also not as tenacious of a rebounder as Millsap, who can help clean the glass as a complementary piece to Favors and Kanter.
Utah will have a tough decision on their hands this summer, and now you do as well, Hoops Rumors reader. Take your pick.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Al Jefferson
Dwight Howard and Andrew Bynum seem to be eliciting the most chatter among soon-to-be free agent centers as the offseason draws near, but Al Jefferson could prove just as valuable, if not more so than the oft-injured Bynum. The burly, 6'10" center has never made it past the first round of the playoffs, but he's proven a productive inside force in each of the last seven seasons, a rare commodity in the NBA. The Jazz appear poised to give up either Jefferson or fellow unrestricted free agent Paul Millsap this summer, so it seems there's a decent chance he'll be changing teams.
As I noted yesterday, it's tough to differentiate between Jefferson and Millsap, who are similar in age and on-court efficiency. Jefferson's size might give him an edge to return to Utah, particularly if the Jazz are more comfortable with Derrick Favors at power forward instead of center. Favors appears more ready for starter's minutes than Enes Kanter, a more traditional center, though the club could be anxious to get more minutes for both of their young big men. Utah has dropped few hints about whether Jefferson or Millsap is more likely to return, so it might be easier to assess the market based on the needs of other teams.
NBA executives appear to remain enchanted with centers even in the wake of the small-ball Heat's championship last season, as witnessed by inflated deals for JaVale McGee, Omer Asik, Ian Mahinmi and others. Those three players, who were backups for their teams in 2011/12, signed for a combined $85.124MM. That's one reason Jefferson, despite never having made an All-Star Game, has a chance of inking a maximum-salary contract in the summer. Teams that miss out on Howard and are wary of Bynum's knee trouble could be tempted to spend on a productive 28-year-old big man who has missed more than six games just once in the past six seasons.
Such an offer would likely result in a salary of between $17MM and $18MM next season, or 30% of whatever the salary cap will be for next year. If he re-signed with the Jazz, he could get a total package of five years and close to $100MM. A maximum deal from another team would be four years and about $75MM. Unlike under the old CBA, Jefferson will be limited to the smaller max if he goes to another team even if Utah facilitates a sign-and-trade, as it appears they'd like to do rather than let Jefferson or Millsap walk for nothing in return.
One report suggested the Spurs were the frontrunners to land Jefferson at the deadline, citing the close ties between their front office and Utah's, but San Antonio's payroll concerns likely prevented any deal from getting too far. The Spurs might be more open to bringing Jefferson aboard in the offseason, since they have slightly less than $33MM in commitments for next year. The Suns appeared to have interest in Jefferson at the trade deadline, too, and they'll have plenty of cap room to sign him outright or engage in a sign-and-trade, since there are multiple reports that no one on Phoenix's roster is untouchable. Eddie Sefko of the Dallas Morning News wrote earlier this season that he believed the Mavs could make a run at Jefferson, and if the team can't land a marquee talent like Howard or Chris Paul, Dallas might turn to Jefferson rather than wait another year to upgrade around an aging Dirk Nowitzki. The Hawks were reportedly seeking a "quality young center" in return for Josh Smith at the trade deadline, and while Jefferson, middle-aged by NBA standards, might not be young, he otherwise fits the bill.
Jefferson was upset after a report from Boston suggested he was open to returning to the Celtics, a prospect that seems far-fetched barring a major overhaul for the C's. In response to that report, Jefferson expressed his desire to remain in Utah, saying, "The only way I won't be there is they don't want me there." It's unclear whether the Jazz want him to stick around as much as he does, and if they do, I don't think a max deal is the most likely outcome. Still, wherever he ends up, I think Jefferson will have a contract worth more than enough to keep him satisfied for years to come.
Jazz Expected To Keep Either Jefferson Or Millsap
After keeping both Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap at the trade deadline, Utah is expected to re-sign one of them, but not the other, when they both hit unrestricted free agency this summer, reports Sam Amico of Fox Sports Ohio. The Jazz will likely pursue a sign-and-trade for whichever of the pair they don't keep, Amico adds.
Removing one of the team's starting big men would open up playing time for Derrick Favors, who'll be in the final year of his rookie-scale contract next season and is up for an extension this summer. The Jazz also have center Enes Kanter, who's a recent No. 3 overall pick, just like Favors. Utah's front office is notoriously tight-lipped, and there was plenty of conflicting information before the trade deadline about whether the team was more likely to deal away Jefferson or Millsap. It turned out to be neither, though it would be even more surprising to see the Jazz keep both of them through the summer.
Jefferson makes nearly twice as much as Millsap this season, but they could be in line for similar deals in free agency. They're putting up matching 20.6 PERs this year, and the 28-year-olds are separated in age by just a month and six days. Jefferson, at 6'10", has the ability to play center that the 6'8" Millsap lacks, and the paucity of true centers figures to make Jefferson slightly more sought-after on the market.
The Jazz have Bird rights on both players and can outbid other teams, and they figure to have about $25.3MM in commitments this summer, leaving plenty of cap space to pursue other free agents if they let either Millsap or Jefferson go. They could use some of that room to accomodate whomever they can get back in a sign-and-trade, but their potential sign-and-trade partners will be somewhat limited under provisions of the new collective bargaining agreement that kick in this offseason. Taxpaying teams can't acquire anyone via sign-and-trade, so the Lakers, for instance, who brought in Steve Nash on a sign-and-trade last summer, couldn't do so this year without shedding other salaries to get below the tax line.
Stein’s Latest: Ibaka, Mavs, Bobby Brown, Raja Bell
After indulging in his love of soccer to make a cross-sport comparison of LeBron James and Lionel Messi, Marc Stein of ESPN.com delivers his usual assortment of juicy NBA rumors from around the league as part of his Weekend Dime. Here are the highlights:
- One NBA GM believes Serge Ibaka would have been worth a maximum-salary contract had he not signed a $49.4MM extension with the Thunder this past offseason. I took an early look this evening at some of this summer's rookie-scale extension candidates.
- The Mavs recently tried to free former NBA point guard Bobby Brown from his deal with Italian club Montepaschi Siena, but the potential buyout would have been too costly. Several teams have interest in Brown, 28, who's expected to return to the NBA next season. He's averaging 17.7 points and 4.4 assists this season in Italy.
- Raja Bell confirms, as we've heard, that he would have taken a buyout from the Jazz before the March 1st playoff eligibility deadline if he had an offer from another team already lined up, and that the Lakers' concerns about the luxury tax have precluded L.A. from signing him. He also said he's open to joining a team this season even though he wouldn't be eligible for the playoffs.
- Had the Nets held on to their first-round draft pick last year instead of trading it away in the Gerald Wallace deal, they likely would have passed on presumptive Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard in favor of Tyler Zeller, since they figured incumbent point guard Deron Williams would re-sign.
- Stein takes the Bulls to task for not making it clear that they're OK with Derrick Rose if he doesn't come back this season. Rose is angry that the perception that he's the only one holding up his return has been allowed to build. A source tells Aggrey Sam of CSNChicago.com that "a lot of people have to sign off" before he could come back.
Jazz Rumors: Millsap, Jefferson, Trades, Bledsoe
Zach Lowe of Grantland leads off his weekly Tuesday column with a lengthy look at the Jazz, a team he calls "the most interesting franchise in the league right now." As Utah approaches an offseason in which it could potentially open up about $30MM in cap space, Lowe shares a few notes of interest on the club:
- A desire to qualify for the postseason this year played a part in Utah's stasis at the trade deadline, according to Lowe. The team's longtime owners, the Miller family, prefer to avoid being in the lottery, so the Jazz weren't about to give up Paul Millsap or Al Jefferson in a deal that would seriously downgrade this year's roster.
- According to Lowe's sources, the Raptors and Pistons were among the teams with whom the Jazz engaged in trade discussions prior to the deadline.
- Had the Jazz been more aggressive about shopping Jefferson and/or Millsap last spring, they could likely have acquired a high first-round pick for Millsap, sources tell Lowe. However, Lowe notes that it's unclear whether that pick would have been attached to an unwanted contract.
- Lowe expects the Jazz to sign-and-trade one of its big free agents this summer, though the new CBA and the number of teams with cap space figures to cool the sign-and-trade market a little.
- League sources who talked to Utah in advance of the deadline say that the Jazz presented themselves as willing to take a step back next season and land a high pick in a loaded 2014 draft. The influence of new GM Dennis Lindsey played a role in that stance, says Lowe.
- Talks between the Clippers and Jazz about Eric Bledsoe and Millsap never got too serious, according to Lowe.
- Since the point guard free agent market isn't expected to be too strong this summer or next, Lowe expects the Jazz to continue exploring trades for a point guard.
Jazz Sign Travis Leslie To 10-Day Contract
MONDAY, 7:44am: The Jazz officially finalized Leslie's 10-day deal yesterday after releasing Bell, announcing the signing in a press release.
FRIDAY, 10:56pm: It appears Raja Bell will indeed be waived in order to make room for Leslie, Kennedy tweets, adding that Leslie will join the Jazz tomorrow. Earlier tonight, Bell's agent, Herb Rudoy, told Bill Oram of The Salt Lake Tribune that he has yet to hear anything from the Jazz about his client.
1:49pm: It's already been a busy day for D-League call-ups, with Terrel Harris receiving a 10-day deal from the Hornets, Maalik Wayns signing a 10-day contract with the Clippers, and Malcolm Thomas expected to finalize a 10-day contract of his own with the Warriors. The Jazz will get in on the action as well, according to Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports, who tweets that Utah is expected to sign Travis Leslie to a 10-day deal. Alex Kennedy of HoopsWorld first tweeted word of Leslie's agreement.
Leslie, 22, appeared in 10 games for the Clippers last season, but hasn't played in the NBA this year. The 6'4" guard has spent the season with the Santa Cruz Warriors, averaging 16.1 PPG and 7.4 RPG while shooting 51.5% from the floor in 28 games for Golden State's D-League affiliate.
The Jazz currently have a full roster of 15 players, so the club will have to release a player to clear a spot for Leslie. The most likely candidate to go is Raja Bell, who is on an expiring contract and hasn't played for the Jazz this season. If Bell is released, another team could pick him up, but he wouldn't be eligible to play in the postseason with a new club.
Jazz Waive Raja Bell
The Jazz have waived Raja Bell, agent Herb Rudoy tells Bill Oram of The Salt Lake Tribune (Twitter link). The move, which had been expected as the team neared an agreement Friday with Travis Leslie, ends a season-long standoff between the Jazz and Bell, who hasn't played a single game this season after the team told him not to come to training camp. Bell will receive his full $3.48MM salary this season, Oram tweets, and that money will remain on Utah's books as long as he clears waivers.
Bell asked for a trade last May after clashing with coach Tyrone Corbin, and he and the team have gone back and forth about the possibility of a buyout for months, reportedly even agreeing on one in July, but Utah never finalized his exit from the team until now. Bell started 33 games at shooting guard for the Jazz last season, but suffered a left knee injury in mid-March and appeared in only one game after his return, playing 18 minutes off the bench in the team's regular-season finale.
The 36-year-old Bell was reportedly telling those close to him last month he'd sign with the Lakers, but that was before the March 1st deadline for players to be waived and still be eligible for the postseason with another team. L.A. could sign Bell and use him in the regular season, but the Lakers are apparently wary of adding more salary that would increase their luxury tax bill. Lakers coach Mike D'Antoni failed in his effort to talk the team into making Bell an offer before March 1st, and without a guarantee he'd find a job with another team, Bell turned down Utah's final buyout offer before the deadline passed.
Rudoy tells Oram that Bell definitely plans to play again (Twitter link), and the Wolves and Bulls have shown interest at various points this season, though it's unclear whether they would want to give him a look now. Bell named the Heat his top choice in the fall, and as Jody Genessy of the Deseret News points out, he has spent the season hanging around Miami, where he attended high school and college. The Heat could open a roster space by electing not to re-up 10-day signee Juwan Howard, but they would have to reciprocate Bell's interest, and there's been no indication that they want to bring him aboard.
One of the reasons Bell remained in limbo for so long is that the Jazz didn't want to give in and reward what the team believed was poor behavior on Bell's part, Oram tweets, so that could scare other teams off. The 12-year veteran averaged his fewest minutes and points per game in nine seasons last year, but he still shot 39.1% from three-point range, just slightly below his 40.6% career mark.
Odds & Ends: Mavericks, Leslie, T’Wolves, Mayo
Eddie Sefko of SportsDayDFW writes that the Mavericks are now in the market for adding a player after severing ties with guard Dominique Jones. Sefko comprises a list including Mike Bibby, Michael Redd, Earl Boykins, and Gilbert Arenas as available veterans who could be worth a look. Among the D-League hopefuls who could warrant an opportunity, Justin Dentmon, Chris Wright, or Sean Singletary come to mind. Sefko rules out the chances of Delonte West making a return to Dallas, citing that the team wouldn't want to reconnect after how badly things ended with him last year. You can find more of tonight's miscellaneous news and notes below:
- Jodie Valade of The Plain Dealer thinks Tristan Thompson should be a candidate for the NBA's Most Improved award.
- Alex Kramers of The Kings Blog recognizes how Tyreke Evans has improved his perimter accuracy with daily extra work.
- Jody Genessy of the Deseret News says that the Jazz haven't and won't make a roster move today, and the Salt Lake Tribune's Bill Oram echoes that those expecting Utah to sign Travis Leslie will have to wait (Twitter links).
- Jerry Zgoda of the Star Tribune introduces his list of college guards who would be ready to help the Timberwolves immediately with their size and skilled-shooting abilities.
- MLive's David Mayo and Brendan Savage argued yesterday that the Pistons should take a look at O.J. Mayo this summer if he opts out of his deal with the Mavs, and Vincent Goodwill of the Detroit News joins the chorus, believing the 25-year-old shooting guard would fill the team's need for perimeter scoring.
- Considering the need for a small forward, the health of Anderson Varejao, and the possibility that Marreese Speights leaves for free agency, Terry Pluto of the Plain Dealer discusses the Cavaliers' pressing issues heading into the offseason.