The Raptors won a title in 2019, came within one win of the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020, and had been a playoff team for seven consecutive seasons entering 2020/21. So it was a bit of a surprise that the club fell off so drastically, winning just 27 games this season after piling up 53 victories in ’19/20.
A number of factors contributed to the Raptors’ plunge down the standings. The team lost Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka in free agency and their replacement centers (Aron Baynes and Alex Len) didn’t really work out. The club was hit by injuries and a midseason COVID-19 outbreak. And perhaps most notably, the Raptors played all their home games in Tampa, having been displaced from Toronto by border restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic. Every NBA team was affected by COVID-19, but no other club was subjected to what amounted to a six-month road trip.
It was a disappointing year for a franchise that hadn’t won fewer than 48 games in a season since 2012/13, but with core players like Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby locked up long-term, there’s reason to believe Toronto won’t be back in the lottery a year from now.
The Raptors’ Offseason Plan:
The Raptors’ decision not to push too hard for a play-in spot late in the regular season paid off, as the team got some luck on lottery night and secured the No. 4 overall pick. The dream scenario would be two-way big man Evan Mobley falling to Toronto, but Jalen Green or Jalen Suggs would be a fine consolation prize.
President of basketball operations Masai Ujiri and general manager Bobby Webster may consider trading up or down, but given how highly those top four prospects are regarded by scouts and draft experts, the safest and easiest play would be to stand pat and select whichever one drops to No. 4.
Speaking of Ujiri, there has still been no word on a potential contract extension for the former Executive of the Year, whose deal with the Raptors expires this summer. But there’s also been little indication that he plans to move on from the franchise. He’s perhaps the Raptors’ most important “free agent” this summer, and signing him to a new long-term deal would be a major win for the organization.
Kyle Lowry also has a claim to the title of Toronto’s most important free agent. One of the greatest players in team history, Lowry has been with the Raptors since 2012, making six All-Star teams during that time and playing a key role on 2019’s championship squad.
Lowry was nearly moved at the trade deadline, but no team was willing to meet Toronto’s asking price. Having failed to acquire any assets for Lowry at that point, the Raptors may feel more compelled this summer to either bring him back on a new contract or work out a sign-and-trade deal with his new team, rather than losing him for nothing. The 35-year-old clearly has an affinity for Toronto, but may want to join a club that’s a little closer to title contention. His free agency will be one of the most interesting cases to watch this offseason.
If they don’t land Mobley in the draft, acquiring a big man via trade or free agency will be high on the Raptors’ list of summer priorities. Depending on what happens with Lowry, the team could have some cap room available to address that issue.
Re-signing RFA-to-be Gary Trent Jr., acquired in a deadline deal with Portland, will also be high on Toronto’s to-do list.
Salary Cap Situation
Note: Our salary cap projections are based on a presumed 3% increase, which would result in a $112.4MM cap for 2021/22.
Guaranteed Salary
- Pascal Siakam ($33,003,936)
- Fred VanVleet ($19,675,926)
- OG Anunoby ($16,071,429)
- Malachi Flynn ($2,048,040)
- Total: $70,799,331
Player Options
- None
Team Options
- None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
- Rodney Hood ($10,851,246) 1
- Aron Baynes ($7,350,000) 2
- Chris Boucher ($7,020,000) 3
- DeAndre’ Bembry ($1,977,011) 4
- Yuta Watanabe ($1,762,796) 5
- Paul Watson ($1,701,593) 6
- Freddie Gillespie ($1,517,981)
- Total: $32,180,627
Restricted Free Agents
- Gary Trent Jr. ($4,736,102 qualifying offer / $4,736,102 cap hold): Bird rights
- Nando De Colo ($1,828,750 qualifying offer / $1,901,900 cap hold): Early Bird rights 7
- Total (cap holds): $6,638,002
Two-Way Free Agents
Draft Picks
- No. 4 overall pick ($7,280,520)
- No. 46 overall pick (no cap hold)
- No. 47 overall pick (no cap hold)
- Total: $7,280,520
Extension-Eligible Players
- None
Unrestricted Free Agents / Other Cap Holds
Kyle Lowry ($39,344,970): Bird rights 8- Lucas Nogueira ($8,841,915): Bird rights 7
- Stanley Johnson ($4,945,395): Early Bird rights
- Khem Birch ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights
- Jeremy Lin ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 7
- Jodie Meeks ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 7
- Jason Thompson ($1,669,178): Non-Bird rights 7
- Total: $59,808,992
Offseason Cap Outlook
Depending on whether they bring back Lowry, the Raptors could operate either over or under the cap this summer. Accounting for their four guaranteed contracts and Boucher’s non-guaranteed salary, along with cap holds for Trent and the No. 4 pick, would leave the Raptors with approximately $18MM in cap room, assuming everyone else (including Lowry) is renounced or waived.
My best guess for now is that the Raptors will enter free agency expecting to operate over the cap in order to either re-sign Lowry or get something back in a sign-and-trade for him. But that plan could change quickly if Lowry goes to a team with the cap room to sign him outright — or if the Raps believe the veteran guard will leave and decide their own potential cap space is worth more than his sign-and-trade rights.
Cap Exceptions Available
- Mid-level exception: $9,536,000 9
- Bi-annual exception: $3,732,000 9
- Trade exception: $1,517,981
- Trade exception: $1,517,981
Footnotes
- Hood’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after July 27.
- Baynes’ salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 5.
- Boucher’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 8.
- Bembry’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 10.
- Watanabe’s salary becomes partially guaranteed ($375K) after August 9.
- Watson’s salary becomes fully guaranteed after August 6.
- The cap holds for these players remain on the Raptors’ books from prior seasons because they haven’t been renounced. They can’t be used in a sign-and-trade deal.
- This is a projected value. Lowry’s cap hit will be the maximum salary for a player with 10+ years of NBA service.
- These are projected values. If the Raptors decide to operate under the cap, they’d forfeit these exceptions and their trade exceptions and would gain access to the room exception ($4.9MM).
Salary and cap information from Basketball Insiders, RealGM, and ESPN was used in the creation of this post.
No team tanked more efficiently than the Raps, and now they have the booty to show for it. They’re a true lottery winner (draft position is categorically better than projected). With #4 they almost have to get an elite young talent, and will be able to select one fits with their core. Either Mobley or Suggs will be there. If they have a strong preference for Mobley, don’t dream, trade up and get the guy. Houston probably should take him, and Cleveland probably should consider taking him, but both of those teams could justify passing on him for another one of the top 5. That means, at a minimum, those teams will almost certainly consider a trade down so the Raps can take him. I’m not as sold on Mobley as some, but he is a perfect fit for the Raps. Lowry might even return.
Houston went 6-45 to end the season, that’s seriously efficient tanking.
Tanking for most of the season is a lot of tanking, but not really efficient.
Raps only needed to tank for the last 12-15 games or so. Prior to that, they stayed in the mix and avoided the pathologies that can accompany tanking.
You are a disgraceful Homer. Now Bigs are in.
I’m glad I can teach you about Ball. Considering how many times I had to explain the importance of size in the NBA. These past two yrs to you. You’re not a real fan. CP3 is looking for you. He’s called his next gm in your honor.
Finally, intelligent statement
That said I believe the Raps trade down and would luv to see them trade with Orlando
Raps 4 this year and top 10 protected 1st next year for Orlando’s 5 and 8 this year
A bit off topic when it comes to the Raptors specifically, but I find it funny how everyone is basically assuming that each of the first 4 guys is going to be a future stud. Now don’t get me wrong—each has more than enough talent for that future to come to fruition—but it’s like folks have forgotten just how often picks bust even within the lottery.
Yes, this front 4 is about as good as things get collectively speaking so the risk is significantly reduced, but there’s still a pretty fair chance one of them won’t work out as well as hoped. Just hope that your team isn’t the team to miss, if that indeed turns out to be the case.
Whatever the Raptors ultimately do—they may not have much of a choice anyway picking 4 out of 4—I’d expect Masai to continue his excellent drafting ways. His decision to pivot for the tank paid off beautifully, albeit with a healthy does of luck involved.
When looking ahead, people often want to think of the potential rather than the reality. It happens all the time in life, such as changing jobs or dating a new person, but it really sticks out when discussing prospects in sports. It’s just human nature.
Year- tier hype- result
2020- top 3- all good EdwardsWisemanBall
2019- top 3- all good Zion, Ja, Barrett
2018- top 5?- 4 good, Bagley bust
2017- 2or5?- 3 good, JoshJ, Fultz busts
2016- top 1- Simmons, BIngram, JBrown- ?
2015- top 1- Towns, DRussell, JOkafor
2014- top 3- Wiggins, JabariP, Embiid
2013- no top- Bennet, Oladipo, OttoP
2012- top 1- ADavis, MGilcrest, Beal
2011- top 2- Irving, DerrickWilliams
2010- top 1- JohnWall, EvanTrnr, Favors
2009- top 1- BlakeG, Thabeet, Harden
2008- top 3- DRose, MBeasley, OMayo
Things have tightened up in predicting.
Of course this is subjective, and relies on my memory of how many were considered in the top tier, though the word ‘tier’ was not used before maybe 5 years ago.
Before 2007, not sure. Maybe not a thing.
This year there is some certainty of a top 4 and Kuminga 5… so a top 4+1 lol… Could also be a top 1!… I would say a top 5 tier and pretty sure of the talent.
Solid list but hard to evaluate after just a few seasons. As great as Trae and Luka are they could blow out their knees next year and we’ll be talking about them like we do B Roy.
I agree with Shea’s point. Statistically a top 4-5 is almost never great across the board. 03 Drafts are legendary for a reason – you almost never get 4 All NBA guys in the same class. And even 03 of course had Darko sandwiched between.
I think calling Bagley a bust might be premature. The guy did make the All Rookie team. He hasn’t progressed like Luka or Ayton, but it’s not fair to call him a bust. Disappointment? Maybe. But not a bust.
Maybe. But my larger point is that predictions on the players gathering the top hype has been tightening up. True it is a early to say for some recent draftees, but for 2008-2016 draftees, I count 10 out of 13 successes. (10 good, Not Beasley, DWilliams or JParker.)
And the last six are hits. Maybe the last 10, if Bagley makes it!
Really, no quibbles with the top tier counts?
I may quibble slightly with what we’re calling a success. Let’s see.
Wiggins (#1, 2014)
Russell (#2, 2015)
Porzingis (#4, 2015)
Gordon (#4, 2014)
Simmons (#1, 2016)
Ball (#2, 2017)
So let’s exclude 2013 because that was historically bad. 2018 haven’t even signed extensions yet so let’s give them some time.
So recent drafts, 2014-17, that’s 16 top 4 picks. I have 6 guys listed above that definitely are not busts, but who are probably negative values given their massive top 5 draft pick extensions. (Ball being the exclusion, but his team is basically balking at extending him, which is rare for a #2 pick, so I’m grouping him here.)
Then there’s: Jackson (#4, 17), Fultz (#1, 17), Bender (#4,16), Okafor (#3,15), and Parker (#2, 14) who I think we can probably safely say are busts?
So that’s an additional 5 guys. Which brings us to 11.
So 11 out of 16 players drafted top 4 from 2014-2017 are either A) busts or B) good players but flawed in a way that makes them fairly significantly overpaid, even as they reach their prime years.
So 5 guys in 4 years (Embiid, Towns, Brown, Tatum, and Ingram) are more or less home runs. That’s only 31%. Then another 31% are busts. And then 38% are productive but flawed.
TL;DR — Toronto is more likely to draft Aaron Gordon than Jayson Tatum.
You are going by draft slot, but I was going for top-tier hype. Wiggins & Simmons were top tier, but Russell was a step down from Towns in ’15 so I did not include him. I do not recall Porzingus or Gordon being top-tier either, but I could be wrong. I thought that would be what posters would complain about, having to remember the BB articles about who is for-sure going to make it.
ShaeG & hiflew had mentioned a top 4, which I was adressing, except the detail that I would call it a top 5 including Kuminga a likely #5… based on claims by writers & experts.
This may be the first year with 5 of that nature; other years had less. (I don’t recall 2017 for sure… maybe we did not think in terms of tiers then.) And so the chances of success for the top 5 in 2021 are more than your 31%.
Some may say 2021 is another “top 1” year: CadeC. But there is all the talk of a breakthrough year.
Just trying to compare the years. I went to three players per year because that was the space available.
Right — I’m about all researched out on this one.
But I don’t disagree on the hype thing, you very well could be on point about that. Analyzing based on pick slot does assume each class is equally talented, which is an issue.
Although I think it’s harder to dig into the tier idea analytically, unless we have one guy who’s tiers we’re using for each year (maybe Bilas or someone has some, IDK).
Someone besides me lol
I remember articles in 2017 comparing Isaac vs Tatum vs Jackson, or Ball vs Fultz, and it was like, here’s the best, pick’em. So maybe a big 5 or big 0. (Fox snuck in there at #5 IRL.)
Other years it was pretty clear.
Match Trent. Go year to year with Lowry. Don’t kill future cap space to bring him back on a 2 or 3 year deal. Or at worst, mutual option or team option for year 2. They probably aren’t in the market for most of the FAs out there. If they draft Mobley they’re pretty set across the board at each position for the next few years for starting caliber talent.
Lowry and FVF
Trent
OG
Siakam
Mobley
They need Siakam to become a superstar to make a deep playoff run. But other than that it’s a quality roster.
I think that’s their biggest issue — Siakam.
If they end up getting a franchise guy at 4 they could just play the long game, stay competitive while he develops. Not sure how much of a mkt there is for Pascal right now.
I feel like Suggs would be an ideal fit with them. Winning mindset and would seem to fit their culture and need if Lowry walks. Think they can sign a big or 2 to roll with Boucher who impressed this year.
Think Suggs complements FV well. I like Trent too, they should resign him. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them make another deep postseason run.
I think it will be Suggs and agree great fit –
Toronto is really set up well moving forward and they tend not to ever walk into potholes which helps
Mobley is a solid pick for Raptors. Unfortunately he won’t be there. But I agree if you want him trade up for him. Suggs is a great pick for Rockets too. I’m sure they would consider it. He could learn for a yr under Wall. I see Green as best talent in this draft. But Cade is a team generator like Bron. IMO both could go #1 depending on who’s picking. It’s like do you take Hakeem or MJ. You really can’t go wrong there. For my Knicks I’m hoping they trade up. Get in top ten and we get a starter. Mitchell Bouknight, J Johnson all can start for us. I got a feeling they will move Toppin and Quickly. Signing our Luca means Quickly is available to me. We need a PG or SF. Top ten in draft has both .
What great timing seriously w Lowry departing …. Just stay put at 4 draft night , it will probably be Suggs but that’s a great get Imo if so…Could see Mobley possibly slip which would be great too
Id bet the Warriors are thinking bigger but if I could cash Pascal into Wiggins + either that 7 or 14 pick Id be willing – I Like the year less remaining w Wiggins and am probably not the biggest fan of Pascal out there . Toronto really has a chance for a quick turnaround here, that 14 pick could be a nice cheap piece this year as Toronto gets younger
Really the biggest winner lottery night was Toronto . Transitions {shouldn’t } be this easy , good Karma for how the city embraced KL and everything thereafter
Karma! TOR should have had bad karma from their “successful” tank. Teams should not be playing to lose in itself; but they also compromised their winning run.
But reality is more random. They should get a star from the tank.
Yes Suggs or Mobley looks ideal