This is the tenth installment in our series breaking down the major trades of the 2022 offseason. As opposed to giving out grades, this series will explore why the teams were motivated to make the moves. Let’s dive into a deal between the Lakers and Jazz…
On August 25, the Jazz traded Patrick Beverley to the Lakers in exchange for Talen Horton-Tucker and Stanley Johnson. Both Beverley and Johnson are on expiring deals, while Horton-Tucker has a player option for 2023/24.
The Lakers’ Perspective:
Marc Stein reported last week that the Lakers were initially reluctant to trade Horton-Tucker for Beverley as the front office was emphasizing youth and athleticism to revamp the roster after a disappointing ‘21/22 season that saw L.A. go 33-49 and miss out on the postseason. However, after LeBron James signed an extension, the team felt more comfortable making a win-now move to improve its roster.
Horton-Tucker is still just 21 years old, so he certainly has some untapped upside. The problem is, while he possesses some unique attributes, he needs the ball in his hands to be most effective on offense, and with ball-dominant players like James and Russell Westbrook on the roster, those opportunities were always going to be limited.
Complicating matters further is the fact that Horton-Tucker has been a poor outside shooter to this point (26.9% on three-pointers last season, 27.6% for his career), which hurt the team’s offensive spacing. He has the tools to be a good defender, but he was inconsistent on that end as well, which isn’t unusual for a young player.
Johnson was mainly included in the deal for salary-matching purposes, as the Lakers needed to add another $75K to Horton-Tucker’s salary to make the trade legal. He played with good energy and effort last season, but he’s a very limited offensive player who is about league-average defensively, so it’s not like he’ll be sorely missed.
At 34 years old, Beverley is probably past his peak, but he’s certainly a short-term upgrade and a much better fit for the way the Lakers’ roster is constructed. He’s the exact type of guard who has typically thrived alongside James throughout his career, fitting the mold of a three-and-D player who doesn’t need the ball to be effective.
Beverley certainly isn’t the most talented scorer, with a career average of 8.8 points per game. But while he has his share of limitations on offense, he’s self-aware and typically doesn’t try to do too much, which is a valuable trait in a role player.
Beverley holds a career mark of 37.8% from beyond the arc, which is above average, and he’s even better from the corners, nailing 40% of those shots in his career. Corner threes are particularly important for floor spacing, so he should help in that regard.
Beverley also takes care of the ball, posting a 3.54-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in ’21/22, and is a tenacious offensive rebounder, creating extra possessions seemingly out of nowhere.
Defense has been Beverley’s calling card throughout his career and is the main reason why he’s about to enter his 11th NBA season. He has been selected to three All-Defensive Teams, the last coming in ’19/20, and though he isn’t quite as good as he once was, he’s still a major backcourt upgrade on that end.
Beverley also brings a relentless energy, effort, toughness and competitiveness that’s hard to quantify with stats, but is certainly impactful. That’s part of the reason why his teams have made the postseason in eight of his ten seasons.
A hard-nosed (at times reckless) playing style has led to Beverley sustaining several injuries, which has to be a significant concern for the Lakers after having James and Anthony Davis miss significant chunks of the last two seasons. Over the past five years, Beverley has appeared in just 235 of a possible 390 regular season contests, which is just over 60%.
Beverley’s expiring deal will pay him $13MM in ‘22/23, and the Lakers will hold his Bird rights, so they’ll be able to go over the salary cap to re-sign him next summer if both parties are amenable to that arrangement.
The Jazz’s Perspective:
Prioritizing minutes for an aging veteran when your team is in the midst of a full-fledged rebuild — a direction made even more evident by trading Donovan Mitchell to Cleveland — doesn’t make sense, and the Jazz realized that pretty quickly, moving on from Beverley less than two months after landing him in the Rudy Gobert blockbuster with Minnesota.
That’s not to say Utah didn’t value Beverley, but he’s a player who actually helps you win games, and the Jazz appear to be trying to lose as many games as possible next season to get the best chance of landing a top prospect like Victor Wembanyama.
What does make sense is taking an upside swing on a developmental prospect like Horton-Tucker, who was one of the youngest players in his draft class (46th overall pick in 2019). Now entering his fourth season, Horton-Tucker is still younger than several incoming rookies, including No. 14 overall pick Ochai Agbaji, whom the Jazz just acquired in the Mitchell deal.
As previously mentioned, Horton-Tucker (also known as THT) has some unique qualities. Standing 6’4″ and weighing 234 pounds, he has a broad-shouldered, strong frame. He also possesses a freakish 7’1″ wingspan, and the combination of his strength and length allows him to do some things that other players are not physically capable of.
Just because he was a poor fit with the Lakers doesn’t mean he lacks talent, and Horton-Tucker certainly has a chance to be a better player than Beverley ever was. The Jazz are betting that giving him a runway for a bigger role might bring out the best in him, allowing Utah to reap the long-term rewards.
Horton-Tucker is not a three-and-D player, but that’s what the Lakers needed him to be, so that’s the role they asked him to play. He is, however, a skilled play-maker, showcasing a knack for getting into the lane with an array of behind-the-backs, crossovers and spin moves. He’s particularly adept at changing pace on the fly, which is a difficult skill to teach.
A solid but unspectacular athlete, Horton-Tucker’s primary attribute at this point is his ability to get to his spots, especially around the basket, though he hasn’t been the best at converting when he does — he shot 57% at the rim last season, which was in the 31st percentile of all players, per DunksAndThrees.com. Like Beverley, Horton-Tucker is a Chicago native who plays with a physical edge and a level of fearlessness that’s impressive to watch.
He has shown some nascent ability as a passer as well, especially off a live dribble, and could realistically average five-plus assists for Utah considering the lack of quality passers on the roster, especially if Mike Conley is traded. Horton-Tucker is also a solid off-ball cutter, something he was able to showcase a bit more a couple of years ago when playing with Marc Gasol, an excellent passing center who could space the floor.
Horton-Tucker needs work defensively — he has the physical tools to be effective, but he’s prone to mistakes, especially off the ball. He’s often slow to rotate as a help defender and is a little reach-happy on the ball, but those are fixable errors.
THT has an $11MM player option for ‘23/24, and there’s a reasonable chance that he picks it up, depending on how he performs next season. The Jazz will have his Bird rights if they’d like to keep him around.
The eighth pick of the 2015 draft, Johnson hasn’t developed into the player scouts thought he could be, and he’s unlikely to have much of a role for Utah. With the Mitchell deal complete, the Jazz will have 17 players on guaranteed deals, and that number needs to be cut down to 15 by the start of the regular season, so Johnson’s spot on the roster is far from secure.
Neither Horton-Tucker (-0.5) nor Johnson (-0.2) made much of an impact on winning last season, with both ranking in the bottom 100 in the league in value over replacement player, per Basketball-Reference. Beverley, meanwhile, recorded a career-best 1.7 VORP, good for 65th in the NBA.
There are several other advanced stats that indicate the same thing, with Beverley posting more win shares (4.1) than THT and Johnson combined (2.9). Beverley’s estimated plus/minus was +2.0, which ranked 68th in the league, per DunksAndThrees.com, while Horton-Tucker (-2.4, ranked 327th) and Johnson (-1.2, ranked 248th) were both net negatives by that metric. I could go on, but you get the point.
Ultimately, considering the Jazz are trying to lose in ’22/23 and the Lakers are trying to win, it was a logical trade for both sides.
Nice breakdown of Horton-Tucker’s game. I hadn’t seen much of him so you really give Clarity to his skills and what he brings to the table. Thank you.
To really understand THT’s game you have to watch him tho. No matter what his #s have shown so far his #1 skill is his ability to drive the ball into the paint & finish at the rim. I’m not sure if he’s from Chi but he has a very Chi type game. He’s basically a poor man’s DWade. Utah should lean on Collin, THT, Jared Butler & Leo Bolmaro as their lead guards next season. All 4 of those youngster are really good with the ball, they just need more experience. These type of teams with so much internal competition for pt/touches are just as fascinating (if not moreso) than title contenders. I appreciate this description of THT’s game even if I don’t agree 100%. But again no one should feel like they know this kids game just from reading this or any other scouting report on him. Watching him play is the only real way to get a real understanding
Yes I hear what you’re saying. My buddy is a huge jazz fan so I’ll be watching plenty of his game this coming season. Like you say also it’s just as much fun watching these up and coming players and teams as it is the top contenders. I’m a basketball fan in general so I agree. That’s why I spend so much time in Vegas watching the summer Pro league.
Quick recap. Lakers needed to bring in defense more than THT would help them. Lakers #1 problem last year was no defense. So the trade helps out lakers and gives THT a chance to prove if he is going to take the next step of being a NBA player.
I always thought THT biggest gift was D and 2way player potential. So you get an older D guy. Seems Lakers just gave up on selling THT High. Finally took what they could. Never been a Beverly fan. But he is who he is. And I respect fact he made it this far.
From what I saw of THT it was only adequate defense. Patrick is a top 10 defensive NBA player. I never like Patrick but his defense is very very good.
THT’s defense is below average and he often gets cooked on switches.
THT played his age and thought he was Kobe. He ain’t Kobe. Once he learns how to pass he will be good, but he wasn’t going to get minutes in the Lakers this year to try to figure it out…again.
American sports need a relagation system, imagine a system where ‘appear to be trying to lose as many games as possible’ is perfectly valid and justified statement for whatever god-forsaken reason.
A regulation system, sort of like a proofreader?
*relegation
Here’s the system: Stop rewarding losing with high draft picks.
Come on DXC, most are not into that sort of thing. They reward losing. The way it should be is, You should play out the season and then all 30 teams are in the draft lottery. That’s how it should be.
Then people say it’s not fair. Well life isn’t fair. Start winning and stop whining. Become better, do better, draft better. Everyone knows that you don’t have to draft number one to get a good player, you can draft 15 or 18 or 23 and get an all star. But I understand. Many folks wouldn’t like it so we have the system currently in place. It works fine.
I’d sign up. Whatever league-wide benefits remain to reverse standing drafting, they’re dwarfed by negative impact it’s having on the product.
All things being equal, I’d like to see the least talented teams get better chances at getting the incoming talent, but that’s only a tiny part of what’s happening. The situation gets worse, not better, every time Silver adopts some feeble remedy. This year, a quarter of the league or more, at least from a FO perspective, will be trying to lose. Most of it pre-planned and intended as multi-year strategy. FO’s in DET and HOU are taking bows, for losing. Hinke is 2k folk hero, for losing. OKC’s TP (Presti) will likely be in the HOF one day (the best player of the era called him a genius), for losing. Rebuilding used to risk losing. Now it is losing.
My idea would be pretty simplistic yet I think effective
Bottom 18 teams same odds years end – Teams 18~22 half lottery balls as 1-18) guaranteed top 22 pick tho
Then
23~30 then have a separate lottery to place them 23-30 (same odds) or you could just simply rank them on end season record/no biggy
Not too many loopholes to trigger yet fairly simplistic and eliminates tanking.
I like it, particularly the 18 number vs 14, because it doesn’t punish the play-in teams for winning 1 or 2 games. I think it’s better for the league if a great young talent goes to a team that’s already put in a foundation that’s become competitive. The only tanking possibility here is at the 18 and 22 lines. Could a team prefer a “play-in” spot (and a chance to get to the top of the draft) to a guaranteed playoff spot, or prefer half a ping pong ball over home court. Not what we currently think of as tanking.
I’d be OK with all 30 teams too, and/or a slight weighting (proportional to W/L record, not place in the standings) among the 18 or 30, but where no team can have a top 6 pick more than once every 3 years. That way the top 18 players over a 3 year period would always go to 18 different teams.
Picked 22 as I don’t think anyone would give up homecourt 1st Rd…but could be wrong, but I weighted last 4 (19,20,21,22) in half to try and keep the temptation as low as possible
Would have the covet top 4 each league instead of just top 8 win % overall so 4 and 4 East/West-
A lot to like in the deal for LAL. PB is a great fit with LBJ. Whereas young players like THT (any young wings that are a WIP really) are not. There’s also the cap space component. LAL have made clear that FA shopping next summer is part of their plan. With THT off the books, their projected cap space next off season goes from 19-20 mm to over 30-31 mm. I’m skeptical of this as the best strategy, but if they do end up shopping, there’s no comparison between those two levels of cap space.
One of the (many) things the NBA needs to do before HS kids start being drafted again is give teams more flexibility in signing their 2nd round picks and undrafted FA’s. The contracts they end up with are not good for their development as players. In fact, they’re hostile to it. Even a guy like THT – who is a financial beneficiary of the system – can end up being hurt by it longer term.
I’m shocked they even got par value- Just moving off the contract for a blah expiring (TRoss) woulda been a win in my books
I guess we’ll try and see what they can assemble